NY Fed’s Williams Says Modestly Restrictive Policy Stance ’appropriate’

Central Bank

Summary:

New York Fed President John Williams said Tuesday that maintaining a modestly restrictive monetary policy stance is "entirely appropriate" given current economic conditions.

Speaking at the NY CREATES Albany NanoTech Complex in Albany, New York, Williams emphasized that keeping the federal funds rate at its current level of 4.25% to 4.5% allows time for policymakers to analyze incoming data and evaluate risks.

Williams’ position contrasts with some other Fed governors who have suggested a potential rate cut in July might be appropriate. However, his comments align with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who on Tuesday signaled patience on rate cuts amid economic stability.

"Given the continued uncertainty, the solid labor market, and inflation still above our 2 percent goal, the FOMC decided at its meeting last week to leave the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged," Williams said in his speech.

He noted that the Fed continues to reduce its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, adding that "despite market volatility related to trade policy and other developments, that process continues to go very smoothly."

Williams pointed to mixed economic signals, with survey data showing pessimism and uncertainty about the economic outlook, while hard economic data indicates the U.S. economy "remains in a good place."

In his outlook, Williams expects real GDP growth to slow to just over 1% this year, with unemployment rising to around 4.5% by year-end. He projects inflation will increase to around 3% in 2025 due to tariffs, before gradually declining to 2% over the following two years.

The New York Fed president also highlighted findings from a recent survey showing that about three-quarters of manufacturers and service firms in New York and New Jersey have passed along at least some tariff-related cost increases to customers.

Source: Investing

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Warren Takunda

Economic

This marks a dramatic de-escalation in a conflict that threatened to rapidly expand following U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, which risked Iran shutting the critical Gulf of Hormuz in retaliation.

However, a truce deadline of 5am BST is in force today, and this is boosting investor morale.

Oil prices have fallen and the Dollar is lower as a result: the Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is quoted at 1.3564, having been as low as 1.3371 yesterday.

With stocks trading higher in Asia, and Europe and the U.S. set to follow, implied volatility has dropped, and this is helping the Pound against the Euro: The Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) has risen from 1.1642 to 1.1687.

Currencies that are highly sensitive to broader sentiment, like the Australian and New Zealand Dollars, are leading the gains.

Iran yesterday attacked a U.S. base in Qatar in response to the weekend attack by the U.S. on Iran's nuclear facilities.

The base had previously been evacuated, leading investors to see this as a low-risk and symbolic retaliation that would allow Iran to back down.

"Iran had previously threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the world's most important transport routes for oil and natural gas, and the fact that Iran did not attack energy-related targets caused oil prices to fall and stock markets to rise," says Elisabet Kopelman, U.S. Economist at SEB.

"So far, a ceasefire – or at least the averted risk of extended conflict – seems to be the main assumption in the markets," she adds.

A de-escalation in the conflict should allow GBP/EUR to extend a recovery; however, upside will likely be limited owing to the UK's slowing economy and the heightened odds that the Bank of England will accelerate the interest rate cutting cycle.

The GBP/USD, on the other hand, has a greater propensity to rise, given it is largely driven by the U.S. side of the equation, where a multi-month devaluation is underway.

The GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/CAD all have scope to decline as Pound Sterling gives way to those currencies that lost ground when tensions were rising.

Source: Poundsterlinglive

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Cryptocurrency

President Donald Trump took office in January pledging to “make America the crypto capital of the world." He has since harnessed wide swaths of the federal government to bolster the industry — all while raking in huge sums of money for his family's business.

By some estimates, crypto ventures now account for nearly 40% of the Trump Organization's $2.9 billion net worth. But the Republican president's championing of the industry has been just as big a boon for many of the industry's top names.

Many have seen their profits and political standing soar, while investigations of potential wrongdoing and other legal entanglements led by the administration of Trump's predecessor, Democratic President Joe Biden, have largely fallen away.

Here's a look at some of the crypto industry's top leaders and their ties to Trump:

Justin Sun

A Chinese-born crypto entrepreneur and founder of the cryptocurrency platform Tron, Sun is best known for buying a piece of conceptual art consisting of a banana duct-taped to a wall for $6.2 million and subsequently eating the banana.

Ties to Trump: Sun was the top investor in Trump’s meme coin, $Trump, and secured the top spot at the president's recent crypto dinner, which was held at Trump’s golf course just outside Washington. Sun posted a professionally produced video of himself receiving a $100,000 gold watch that Trump’s meme coin awarded to the top four investors. Sun also recently bragged about his close ties to the White House, posting in Chinese on X “It’s all true” over a series of posts listing his links to the president and his meme coin. Sun was sued by the Securities and Exchange Commission under Biden for working to artificially inflate the price of crypto, an investigation that has been paused since Trump took office. Sun was an early and important investor in World Liberty Financial, a crypto venture Trump and his sons Eric and Donald Jr. launched in September. The president’s most recent financial disclosure report reveals he made more than $57 million last year from World Liberty Financial, which has launched USD1, a stablecoin pegged at a 1-to-1 ratio to the U.S. dollar.

Michael Saylor

The co-founder and chair of Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, Saylor is one of bitcoin’s most prominent and outspoken evangelists. He owns a yacht once featured on “Entourage,” and his is the most high-profile bitcoin treasury company, which is a type of firm primarily focused on buying and holding bitcoin as its business model. Strategy currently holds more than 2% of all outstanding bitcoins in circulation and is constantly buying more.

Ties to Trump: Trump Media, the parent company of the president’s social media platform, Truth Social, has announced it will raise $2.5 billion from institutional investors to buy bitcoin in an attempt to build up a cryptocurrency reserve, similar to what Saylor’s company is best known for. Saylor met in January with Eric Trump at the president's Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, and the president's son has spoken publicly about how he and Saylor were friends who knew each other in New York two decades ago. Saylor also attended the president's first crypto summit at the White House in March. “All of us owe him a tremendous debt of gratitude,” Eric Trump said of Saylor, praising him at the recent annual bitcoin conference in Las Vegas as an effective spokesperson for the crypto community.

Changpeng Zhao

Known universally as CZ, Zhao is founder and former CEO of Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. He was sentenced last year to four months in prison for failing to stop criminals from using the platform to move money connected to child sex abuse, drug trafficking and terrorism. Zhao was released in September.

Ties to Trump: World Liberty Financial recently announced that an investment fund in the United Arab Emirates would be using $2 billion worth of USD1 to purchase a stake in Binance. Zhao also has publicly said that he's asked Trump for a pardon that could nullify his conviction.

Brian Armstrong

Co-founder and CEO of Coinbase, a major cryptocurrency exchange, Armstrong has been a key figure in the crypto industry’s push into politics.

Ties to Trump: Armstrong and Coinbase were major donors to a political action committee that helped Trump and other pro-crypto candidates. He met with Trump weeks after Election Day and attended the White House crypto summit. Coinbase hired Trump’s former campaign manager, Chris LaCivita, to its Global Advisory Council. Trump also addressed, via prerecorded video message, Coinbase's State of Crypto Summit this month.

The Winklevoss Twins

Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss founded the Gemini cryptocurrency exchange and are most famous to the general public for suing Mark Zuckerberg over the creation of Facebook, an important plot point in the movie “The Social Network.” In 2023, Biden's SEC sued Gemini for selling unregistered securities, another case that's been paused since Trump took office.

Ties to Trump: The twins each pledged $1 million donations to the Trump campaign, as well as lavish donations to Elon Musk’s political group – though some of the donations to Trump’s campaign were returned because the Winklevoss brothers had violated federal limits. They were invited to Trump’s crypto summit and praised the president’s approach to the sector then. Addressing the crypto conference in Las Vegas, Vice President JD Vance said the brothers “really helped break the dam” and persuade tech sector leaders to support Trump’s campaign. “I think they were some of the first big names in Silicon Valley to take that step, and a whole host of people followed them,” Vance said.

David Bailey

Bailey is the CEO of BTC Inc., an influential holding company with ventures throughout the crypto industry including Bitcoin Magazine. He recently raised $300 million to launch Nakamoto, a publicly traded bitcoin investment company.

Ties to Trump: Baily served as a crypto adviser to Trump's campaign. Vance also saluted Bailey at the Las Vegas conference, saying he was “grateful for everything you've done for the bitcoin community.”

source : finance.yahoo

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Adam

Forex

Economic

Middle East Situation

Selling flows in the US Dollar have came back promptly after the Iranian repost on the US Base of Al-Udeid in Qatar – What was previously thought to have the potential to be a new phase of a prolonged conflict materialized into a cease-fire.

A build-up of angst through last week trading sent markets gapping strongly at the weekly open, but all of these moves largely reversed. The story is largely similar to August 2024 preceding tensions between Israel and Iran that led to similar reversals.

The Dollar index is now back into the 98 handle and back into its 2025 descending channel.Equity markets just now turned from fear to greed and it seems that players have already turned the page on the conflict.

All eyes now turn to the upcoming FED Chair Powell's testimony at the US Senate, coming up at 10:00 A.M. ET.

Dollar Index Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

DXY Weekly Chart

Weekly charts still point to relatively bearish momentum, however the current 98.00 handle served as consolidation throughout the 2020 Covid repricing and the 2022 start of the hike cycle.Hence, there are volume-and-price magnets for USD trading around this zone, where except for any particular bullish or bearish catalyst, markets may use as a zone for price consolidation.The Weekly RSI is in the oversold region, therefore prices would have to consolidate before pursuing a continuation of the 2025 downtrend.A reversal from here would however point to a retest of the 100.00 Main Resistance.

DXY Daily Chart

The Daily picture for the Dollar is close to Neutral despite a major reversal of the weekly bullish open that tested the Daily 50-Moving Average at 99.50.Sellers have failed to push below the 2025-lows situated at 97.60, and an indecision doji is forming at the highs of the Daily descending channel.Momentum is still slightly bearish – Positioning seems to have been one-sided but some of that has been undone by the tensions.

We will get more clarity as markets now turn their eyes back to Federal Reserve speeches and Economic Data, which had by the way surprised to the downside in the past few weeks.

DXY 1H Chart

The Greenback gapped down slightly in today's open and is now consolidating right at the 98.00 Psychological Level that bulls used as support in the week-ago bullish impulsive move.The DXY is trading oversold as the correction exceeded 100 pips, and the rest of the story is to see if markets want to maintain their sell-side bias on the World's global currency.A further breakdown from here points toward a test of the 97.62 lows attained right as Israel started its offense at Iran's Nuclear capacity, a further support just below at the 97.50 psychological zone.

A rebound from here would look to test the 98.50 pivot, however buyers will have to take prices out of the 2025 descending channel first.

Source: marketpulse

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Thomas

Commodity

Political

U.S. oil producers rapidly increased hedging activities to lock in higher prices following a surge triggered by Israel's strike on Iranian facilities.
Hedge trades hit record highs on platforms like Aegis Hedging as producers anticipated short-term price spikes, aiming to protect profits amid geopolitical risks.
With a ceasefire now easing geopolitical tensions, the window for securing higher oil prices has quickly closed, returning WTI to pre-conflict levels around $65 per barrel.

U.S. oil producers flocked to hedge higher prices for their output for the rest of the year and early into 2026 as international crude oil prices surged earlier this month.

Early on June 13 local time, Israel attacked Iranian nuclear facilities and military leadership in coordinated strikes that sent oil prices surging amid concerns that an escalating conflict could disrupt oil flows from the Middle East.

On the night of June 12 and the following morning, Texas-based Aegis Hedging Solutions – a company with a platform for oil producers’ hedging – registered its highest-ever number of hedge trades, Aegis Hedging’s president Matt Marshall told Bloomberg.

U.S. shale producers, who were under-hedged going into this spring, saw a major opportunity to lock in higher prices for the next few months as WTI crude prices surged out of the high $50s - low $60s per barrel price range and hit the $75 mark last week.

Oil prices had lingered into the low $60s for the three months between early April and early June, as the U.S. tariff blitz and the OPEC+ production hikes weighed on market sentiment with fears of oversupply.

As of March, a survey by Standard Chartered of 40 independent U.S. oil and gas companies revealed they had little protection, with a 2025 oil hedge ratio of just 21% for their combined 5.03 million barrels per day (bpd) of production and a 2026 hedge ratio of just 4%.

To compare, the U.S. shale industry entered 2020 with an oil hedge ratio of 51.7%, which provided significant support when oil prices collapsed during the pandemic.

As of the end of 2024, independent North American oil and gas producers had more than 80% of their first-half 2025 oil production unhedged, leaving them exposed as OPEC+ supply hikes and concerns about a global recession weighed on the market, data from Evaluate Energy showed in April.

Hedging activity, however, spiked on June 12-13 to a record high on the Aegis Hedging platform as producers rushed to lock in higher prices in the short term amid the geopolitics-driven jump in WTI prices.

Such war premium-related spikes in oil prices tend to lift the front of the futures curve more than contracts further out in time, unlike in price jumps related to fundamentals.

In the case with the Middle East conflict, the hedging strategy was geared more toward the short term, Aegis Hedging says.

“In this case it was probably a six-month effect,” Aegis Hedging’s Marshall told Reuters.

“Producers recognized that this could be a fleeting issue and so they saw a price that was above their budget for the first time in a few months, and instead of doing a structure that would give them a floor which is below market, they opted to be aggressive and lock in,” Marshall added.

U.S. oil and gas executives polled in the Dallas Fed Energy Survey in Q1 indicated that their companies need an average $65 per barrel to profitably drill a new well.

Oil companies that hedged production probably did so just in time. The tentative ceasefire between Iran and Israel, which was announced by U.S. President Donald Trump as "complete and total," has deflated the geopolitical risk premium and brought WTI oil back to $65 per barrel, roughly the level where it traded at before the Israeli strike on Iran.

Source: Zero Hedge

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Key points:

Bitcoin holds Middle East ceasefire gains as $103,000 becomes the new area of interest for “buying the dip.”

Institutional BTC inflows hold firm despite geopolitical uncertainty.

Fed official Michelle Bowman says she would be open to a July interest-rate cut should data allow.

Bitcoin held $105,000 into the Tuesday Wall Street open as bullish BTC price tailwinds suddenly multiplied. Bitcoin $105K 'Trend Switch' Comes as Fed Hints at July Rate Cut_1

Bitcoin $105K 'Trend Switch' Comes as Fed Hints at July Rate Cut_1

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Analyst: Bitcoin “buy the dip” level now $103,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD preserving the majority of its 4.4% gains from the day prior.

Relief from the Middle East conflict in the form of a tentative ceasefire spurred a crypto and risk-asset rally, while oil extended losses.

For Bitcoin traders, the signs of a bull market recovery were everywhere. Bitcoin $105K 'Trend Switch' Comes as Fed Hints at July Rate Cut_2

“Strong rally from the range lows after a big liquidity grab and deviation,” trader Daan Crypto Trades summarized in his latest analysis on X.

“Now back near the middle of the range from the past 6 weeks or so.” Bitcoin $105K 'Trend Switch' Comes as Fed Hints at July Rate Cut_3

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe described BTC price action as experiencing a “trend switch.”

“It’s uptrending now, after we’ve had a massive liquidation crash taking place to sub $100K. It broke through $103K and hit the next resistance,” he told X followers.

“Time to be buying the dip, so if we get to $103K, that's the area you'd want to accumulate.”

BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Institutional trends likewise remained intact, even at the height of the US-Iran strikes, with the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) maintaining net inflows.

“Although the inflows were modest, no major outflows were recorded either, which is a notable signal of investor confidence,” onchain analytics platform Glassnode commented on the ETF activity. Bitcoin $105K 'Trend Switch' Comes as Fed Hints at July Rate Cut_5

Bitcoin $105K 'Trend Switch' Comes as Fed Hints at July Rate Cut_5

US spot Bitcoin ETF flows. Source: Glassnode/X

Fed’s Bowman could “support” July rate cut

In a further bullish signal, the US Federal Reserve signaled that it would be open to lowering interest rates sooner than markets expected.

During a speech in Prague, Czech Republic, on June 23, Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman hinted that she would support a rate cut at the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Bowman also suggested that the economic impact of US trade tariffs may be less acute than feared.

“If upcoming data show inflation continuing to evolve favorably, with upward pressures remaining limited to goods prices, or if we see signs that softer spending is spilling over into weaker labor market conditions, such developments should be addressed in our policy discussions and reflected in our deliberations,” she said.

“Should inflation pressures remain contained, I would support lowering the policy rate as soon as our next meeting in order to bring it closer to its neutral setting and to sustain a healthy labor market.”

Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that markets believe the first of two 2025 cuts will come at the September FOMC meeting.

As Cointelegraph reported, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, himself under pressure from President Donald Trump to cut, is due to testify before lawmakers in Washington on June 24-25.

Source: Cointelegraph

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Adam

Economic

Almost nobody owns this asset class, which could produce strong returns.

The chart below displays a study from Morgan Stanley that looked at the actual allocation towards Emerging Market equities (orange) versus the allocations suggested by several widely accepted approaches, such as MSCI market weights or GDP weights (blue).

Emerging Markets Set for Rebound Amid US Dollar Weakness and Fiscal Tailwinds_1

Investors are strongly under-allocated to emerging markets.

Morgan Stanley looked at various approaches to come up with a reasonable portfolio allocation to emerging markets, based on things such as:

EM GDP contribution to world GDP

EM allocation that maximized portfolio risk/return profiles

And the answer was that investors should have 20-30% of their portfolio exposed to emerging markets.

How much do they have instead?

6-8% at best.

The dismal EM performance of the 2010s has contributed to a strong under-allocation of emerging markets as asset managers tend to chase recent trends and behave as a herd.

But with the potential for further US Dollar weakening, a recycling of trade surpluses into domestic economies and fiscal stimulus (e.g. Korea) the tide might as well change over the next 1-2 years.

Emerging markets could be poised for strong returns.

Agree or disagree?