Nominations Now Open for FastBull 2024 Trading Influencers Awards · Vietnam

Summary:

Welcome to FastBull 2024 Trading Influencers Awards Vietnam! The nominations have been open since May 30 2024 and will stay open through July 12. Come to FastBull and nominate your favoriate traders, and join our grand gala, a celebration for financial investors!

Nominations Now Open for FastBull 2024 Trading Influencers Awards · Vietnam_1

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Awards

The FastBull Influencers Awards has a total of 20 awards as follows:

Top New Trader

Best Risk Management Trader

Outstanding Trading Education Contribution Award

Best Investment Management Award

Best Trading Innovation Award

Best Market Analyst Award

Outstanding Service Award

Distinguished Reputation Award

Most Popularity Award

Best Forex Strategies Analyst

Most Influential Trader

Outstanding Trading Mentor Award

Best Forex Trader

Best Education Concept Award

Most Trusted Trader

Best Customer Support Award

Best Market Insight Award

Best Trading Psychology Award

Best Innovative Trading Strategy Award

Best Technical Analysis Award

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to extend most of its deep oil output cuts well into 2025 as the group seeks to shore up the market amid tepid demand growth, high interest rates and rising rival U.S. production.

Brent crude oil prices have been trading near $80 per barrel in recent days, below what many OPEC+ members need to balance their budgets. Worries over slow demand growth in top oil importer China have weighed on prices alongside rising oil stocks in developed economies.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, together known as OPEC+, have made a series of deep output cuts since late 2022.

OPEC+ members are currently cutting output by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5.7% of global demand.

Those include 3.66 million bpd of cuts, which were due to expire at the end of 2024, and voluntary cuts by eight members of 2.2 million bpd, expiring at the end of June 2024.

On Sunday, OPEC+ agreed to extend the cuts of 3.66 million bpd by a year until the end of 2025 and prolong the cuts of 2.2 million bpd by three months until the end of September 2024.

OPEC+ will gradually phase out the cuts of 2.2 million bpd over the course of a year from October 2024 to September 2025.

"We are waiting for interest rates to come down and a better trajectory when it comes to economic growth ... not pockets of growth here and there," Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told reporters.

OPEC expects demand for OPEC+ crude to average 43.65 million bpd in the second half of 2024, implying a stocks drawdown of 2.63 million bpd if the group maintains output at April's rate of 41.02 million bpd.

The drawdown will be less when OPEC+ starts phasing out the 2.2 million bpd voluntary cuts in October.

The International Energy Agency, which represents top global consumers, estimates that demand for OPEC+ oil plus stocks will average much lower levels of 41.9 million bpd in 2024.

"The deal should allay market fears of OPEC+ adding back barrels at a time when demand concerns are still rife," said Amrita Sen, co-founder of Energy Aspects think tank.

Prince Abdulaziz said OPEC+ could pause the unwinding of cuts or reverse them if demand wasn't strong enough.

QUICK DEAL

Analysts had expected OPEC+ to prolong voluntary cuts by a few months due to falling oil prices and sluggish demand.

But many analysts had also predicted the group would struggle to set targets for 2025 as it had yet to agree individual capacity targets for each member, an issue that had previously created tensions.

The United Arab Emirates, for instance, has been pushing for a higher production quota, arguing its capacity figure had been long under-estimated.

But in a surprise development on Sunday, OPEC+ postponed the discussions on capacities until November 2025 from this year.

Instead, the group agreed a new output target for the UAE which will be allowed to gradually raise production by 0.3 million bpd, up from the current level of 2.9 million.

OPEC+ agreed that it would use independently assessed capacity figures as guidance for 2026 production instead of 2025 - postponing a potentially difficult discussion by one year.

Prince Abdulaziz said one of the reasons for the delay was difficulties for independent consultants to assess Russian data amid Western sanctions on Moscow for its war on Ukraine.

The meetings on Sunday lasted less than four hours - relatively short for such a complex deal.

OPEC+ sources said Prince Abdulaziz, the most influential minister in the OPEC group, had spent days preparing the deal behind the scenes.

He invited some key ministers - mostly those who contributed to the voluntary cuts - to come to the Saudi capital Riyadh on Sunday despite meetings being largely scheduled online.

The countries which have made voluntary cuts to output are Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

"It should be seen as a huge victory of solidarity for the group and Prince Abdulaziz," said Sen, adding the deal would ease fears of Saudi Arabia adding barrels back due to Aramco's share listing.

Saudi Arabia's government has filed papers to sell a new stake in state oil giant Aramco that could raise as much as $13.1 billion, a landmark deal to help fund Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's plan to diversify the economy.

OPEC+ will hold its next meeting on Dec. 1, 2024.

Source: Reuters

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alex

Economic

Forex

In China, the private Caixin survey showed a pick-up in its main factory index to a two-year top of 51.7 in May, offsetting weakness in the official survey out last week.

Japan’s factory activity expanded for the first time in a year in May, while activity in South Korea grew at the fastest pace in two years.

All three countries are major buyers of Australian commodities and the Aussie edged up to $0.6657, comfortably above last week’s trough of $0.6591.

Resistance is expected to be tough around $0.6680 and $0.6714. The kiwi dollar firmed to $0.6153 and closer to a recent 10-week top of $0.6170.

The European Central Bank is considered certain to kick off its easing cycle this week, with the Bank of Canada also thought likely to cut rates.

Markets, in contrast, see almost no chance of an easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this year and even a small risk of another hike given stubborn domestic inflation.

Yet, rates are already high enough to squeeze domestic demand and data due Wednesday are expected to show the economy expanded by a miserly 0.2% in the March quarter, the third straight quarter of sub-par growth.

“The weakness on the activity side is likely to see the RBA hold off on any further increases in the cash rate, as it looks forward to the downstream impacts of slower growth and balances the risk of a faster deterioration in the labour market,” analysts at NAB said.

“That said, with a high bar for further hikes, still high inflation points to the risk of a longer period of stability in rates.”

Arguing against a tightening has been a slowdown in national wage growth to an annual 4.1%, which in turn led to a step-down in minimum pay awards.

Australia’s independent wage-setting body on Monday raised the national minimum wage by 3.75%, well under the 5.75% increase granted last year.

“From a macro perspective, the outcome supports our view that wage-sensitive services inflation should ease over the second half of the year, particularly across the hospitality sector,” said analysts at Goldman Sachs. “We continue to expect the RBA to commence a gradual easing cycle in November 2024.”

Source:Business Recorder

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Kevin Du

Economic

Forex

Pound Sterling fell from 21-month highs against the Euro following Friday's release of above-consensus Eurozone inflation, which spoiled a bullish technical setup and raised the potential of a deeper pullback to 1.17 or below.

Regular readers of our Week Ahead Forecasts will recall that rallies above 1.1720 tend to fail and swiftly reverse, and a succession of closes above here last week signalled the makings of a more decisive uptrend.

The Pound benefited from May's above-consensus inflation print and a dearth of commentary from the Bank of England owing to pre-election purdah, which allowed GBP/EUR to move as high as 1.1784 at one stage.

The test of 21-month highs allowed some euro buyers to take advantage of the best exchange rates in 21 months. However, dealers at international payment companies told us that some were opting to hold tight, hoping for even stronger exchange rates.

Unfortunately, this strategy of holding out for higher levels might have proven costly as the exchange rate looks to have succumbed again to the familiar gravitational pull of €1.17. Pound to Euro Week Ahead Forecast: Gravity Wins Again_1

Pound to Euro Week Ahead Forecast: Gravity Wins Again_1

Strategists at Citibank say they continue to fade Pound Sterling strength against the Euro as long as EUR/GBP remains above 0.85. (This equates to a Pound-Euro conversion remaining locked below 1.1765.)

"EUR/GBP broke through key support... around 0.8500 but bounced back rather quickly on short-term profit taking," says Brad W. Bechtel, who heads FX strategy at Jefferies Bank.

However, Citi's strategists "are willing to flip short if the break below 0.85 is sustained on a weekly/monthly close." This condition is proving elusive and could require more patience.

"We think EURGBP will break lower later this year and we target 0.84," says Thomas Flury, a strategist at UBS's Chief Investment Office. (EUR/GBP at 0.84 is 1.19 GBP/EUR).

Driving recent Pound strength is the rapid fading of expectations for a June rate cut at the Bank of England. Indeed, markets are now not even fully expecting a rate cut by August.

This is as the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut interest rates this week, creating a clear divergence in monetary policy settings between the UK and Eurozone that favours GBP upside.

Because markets fully expect an interest rate cut at the ECB on Thursday, the decision itself won't be a market-moving surprise; what will move the market is the guidance pertaining to future rate cuts.

"The highlight is the ECB meeting, with a rate cut well anticipated, so the guidance for future policy moves will be a key driver. We think the euro will weaken, especially given its strong rally in recent weeks," says Dominic Schnider, a strategist with UBS' Chief Investment Office.

The Eurozone economy is rebounding, and inflation continues to prove sticky, suggesting there is little need to rush into another cut as early as July.

Expect the ECB to confirm that it remains data-dependent and argue that it is prudent to allow some time before cutting rates again.

This would be a status-quo outcome for the Euro and could result in further strength as Eurozone bond yields firm, likely sending Pound-Euro back towards 1.17 again.

Source: PoundSterling

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Cohen

Economic

The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 in May from 51.4 the previous month, the highest since June 2022, and beating analysts' forecasts of 51.5. The 50-point mark separates growth from contraction.

To counter soft domestic demand and a years-long property crisis, China has boosted infrastructure investment and ploughed funds into high-tech manufacturing to bolster the broader economy this year.

However, the full effects of its industry policy support have yet to be felt by businesses and workers.

The upbeat Caixin PMI contrasts with an official PMI survey on Friday that showed a surprise fall in manufacturing activity.

The divergent indicators combined with other mixed data suggest the economic recovery is struggling to sustain momentum in the second quarter.

"The key question is whether China's exports will continue to hold up well in the coming months," said Zhou Hao, economist at Guotai Junan International.

"The export orders index dropped significantly in the official PMI but remained relatively resilient in the Caixin PMI."

The Caixin survey is believed to be skewed more towards smaller, export-oriented firms than the much broader official PMI.

According to the Caixin survey, output rose at the fastest pace since June 2022, with firms in the consumer segment reporting sharp growth in May.

Production was underpinned by higher new work inflows, as stronger domestic and global demand supported client interest in new products, according to respondents.

Thanks to some improved economic indicators and fresh policy steps in the first quarter, the International Monetary Fund last week lifted its forecast on China's 2024 economic growth to 5% from an earlier forecast of 4.6%.

But that was still below a previous IMF forecast for 5.2% growth.

Rating agency Moody's raised its 2024 China growth forecast to 4.5% on Monday from 4.0%, while retaining its projection for 2025 at 4.0%.

The outlook for China's trade remained volatile due to a lacklustre global economy.

According to Caixin, new export orders grew at a much slower pace in May, coming off April's 41-month high.

Some survey respondents said recent trade fairs had led to new work, while others referred to their strategic expansion into overseas markets.

To meet ongoing production requirements, factories stepped up their purchasing activity, with the quantity of purchases accelerating at the fastest pace in three years.

Sentiment among producers improved from April as they expected market demand to improve both at home and abroad.

Rising metals, plastics and energy prices led to an increase in average input costs. The rate of input price inflation was the highest since last October.

However, employment remained weak, staying in contractionary territory for the ninth consecutive month. The rate of job losses slowed, with makers of consumer goods even recording a slight rise in staffing levels.

Source:Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Owen Li

Stocks

Economic

The Overview of the DAX Performance

The DAX advanced by 0.01% on Friday (May 31). Following a 0.13% gain on Thursday (May 30), the DAX closed the session at 18,498. Significantly, the DAX rose by 3.16% in May despite a three-week losing streak. In the week ending May 31, the DAX fell by 1.05%.

China PMIs and German Retail Sales Disappoint

On Friday, China NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI numbers fell short of forecasts. Significantly, the NBS Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.4 to 49.5, signaling a contraction midway through Q2 2024.

Early in the European session, German retail sales suggested a softer inflation outlook. Retail sales slid by 1.2% in April after surging 2.6% in March.

However, Eurozone inflation numbers for May affected buyer demand for DAX-listed stocks. The annual inflation rate increased from 2.4% to 2.6%, with core inflation up from 2.7% to 2.9%. The hotter-than-expected inflation figures tested investor bets on multiple post-June ECB rate cuts.

US Jobs Report Offers Little Market Relief

On Friday, US inflation numbers failed to spark a late breakout. The US Core PCE Price Index increased 2.8% year-on-year in April after advancing by 2.8% in March. Sticky inflation numbers could influence the Fed rate path.

Nevertheless, personal income and spending saw less marked increases, limiting the impact of the Personal Income and Outlays report on the DAX.

The Nasdaq Composite Index slipped by 0.01%. However, the Dow and S&P 500 saw gains of 1.51% and 0.80%, respectively.

The Friday Market Movers

Siemens Energy AG slid by 4.39%, with SAP and Infineon Technologies seeing losses of 1.55% and 0.70%, respectively.

Bank stocks also ended the session in negative territory. Commerzbank declined by 1.05%, with Deutsche Bank falling by 1.32%.

However, auto stocks had a positive session. Porsche rose by 0.84%. Mercedes Benz Group and BMW advanced by 0.71% and 0.63%, respectively. Volkswagen ended the session up 0.44%.

German and Eurozone Manufacturing in Focus

On Monday (June 3), finalized German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI numbers need consideration.

According to the preliminary surveys, the German Manufacturing PMI increased from 42.5 to 45.4 in May. Furthermore, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI advanced from 45.7 to 47.4.

Revisions to the preliminary numbers could influence buyer-demand for DAX-listed stocks.

Earlier in the Monday session, PMI numbers from China set the tone. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI increased from 51.4 to 51.7 in May.

US Manufacturing PMIs in Focus

Later in the Monday session, the ISM Manufacturing PMI will attract investor attention. Economists forecast the ISM Manufacturing PMI to increase from 49.2 to 49.8 in May. A manufacturing sector return to expansion could boost buyer demand for riskier assets.

Other stats include finalized S&P Global Manufacturing PMI figures. However, the ISM Manufacturing PMI will likely impact market risk sentiment more.

Near-Term Outlook

Near-term trends for the DAX will hinge on US and Euro area Services PMIs and the US Jobs Report. Hotter-than-expected Services PMIs and US labor market data could impact investor bets on multiple 2024 ECB and Fed interest rate cuts.

On the Futures markets, the DAX and the Nasdaq mini were up 170 and 55 points, respectively.

DAX Technical Indicators

Daily Chart DAX Index Today: Manufacturing PMIs from China, Germany, and the US in Focus_1

The DAX sat above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.

A DAX break above the 18,500 handle would support a move toward 18,650. A break above the 18,650 handle could signal a return to 18,700.

Manufacturing sector PMIs need consideration.

However, a DAX drop below 18,400 could give the bears a run at the 50-day EMA.

The 14-day RSI at 50.35 suggests a move to 18,800 before entering overbought territory.

4-Hourly Chart DAX Index Today: Manufacturing PMIs from China, Germany, and the US in Focus_2

The DAX remained below the 50-day EMA while holding above the 200-day EMA, sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price trends.

A DAX break above the 50-day EMA would support a move toward the 18,650 handle.

Conversely, a DAX drop below the 18,400 handle could give the bears a run at the 18,200 handle.

The 14-period 4-hour RSI at 36.74 suggests a DAX fall below the 18,400 handle before entering oversold territory.

Source: FX Empire

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Cohen

Economic

The Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 51.7 last month from 51.4 in April, slightly above the median forecast of 51.6 by economists in a Bloomberg poll and the highest since June 2022. Any reading above 50 suggests an expansion.

China Manufacturing Expands Fastest in 2 Years, Survey Says_1

The upbeat private survey results compared with China’s official manufacturing PMI published Friday showing factory activity unexpectedly contracted last month. The two surveys cover different sample sizes, geographic locations and types of businesses, with the Caixin poll focusing on smaller and export-oriented firms.

China’s benchmark CSI 300 Index of onshore stocks erased losses after the Caixin release, gaining as much as 0.6% with investor sentiment boosted by improving home sales data and positive vehicle sales numbers. Chinese shares trading in Hong Kong rose as much as 3.1% following drops in the previous four sessions.

China Manufacturing Expands Fastest in 2 Years, Survey Says_2

The accelerated expansion indicated by the private gauge could offset some concerns triggered by the official survey about weakening momentum in the manufacturing sector, which Beijing relies on to boost the economy this year. Exporters saw new orders rising for the fifth straight month in May, albeit at a slower rate, the Caixin results showed, suggesting foreign demand held up for Chinese goods.

“China’s economy is generally stable and remains on the road to recovery,” said Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group, in a statement accompanying the release of the data.

That said, pressure on employment and weaker demand than supply “remain prominent issues,” he said. “Policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, boosting domestic demand and increasing employment need to be strengthened and consistent.”

Manufacturing production rose at the fastest pace since June 2022, with firms in the consumer segment reporting sharp output growth in May, according to the private survey, jointly published by Caixin and S&P Global. However, the expansion in new orders slowed slightly from April, while companies remained hesitant to take on additional workers, it showed.

The Caixin PMI has outperformed the official index for seven consecutive months since October. Economists have attributed the differences between the official and the private surveys this year to improved external demand but a subdued domestic market.

Key to China’s efforts to hit an annual growth target of around 5%, the manufacturing sector is threatened by rising trade barriers from the US, EU and other countries as tensions mount over complaints of Chinese overcapacity and unfair competition.

The EU has opened a barrage of trade probes against Beijing on the grounds of anti-dumping and unfair subsidies, especially in the clean-technology sector. The bloc must inform Chinese EV exporters whether it intends to impose tariffs — and how high they would be — by early June, and they could go into effect a month later.