Nasdaq 100: Investors Eye Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Amid Profit-Taking

Economic

Summary:

Tech-led losses pushed Nasdaq 100 down 1.4% as investors took profits ahead of Fed minutes and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. USD strengthened, NZD fell after RBNZ cut, GBP rose on hot UK inflation.

US equities took a hit on Tuesday, led by losses in the technology sector; the Nasdaq 100 slid 1.4% and the S&P 500 was down 0.6%. The pullback, in part, may be due to recent comments from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, saying Artificial Intelligence (AI) is in a bubble.

Still, I think the drop across risk assets is primarily due to investors’ profit-taking ahead of upcoming event risk, including today’s release of the minutes from the previous US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting and the Jackson Hole Symposium, which kicks off tomorrow.

Markets are largely expecting Fed Chair Jerome Powell to adopt a more dovish stance on Friday at the Symposium. The risk, therefore, is whether Powell reiterates his wait-and-see stance and essentially throws cold water on near-term easing.

As I highlighted in the week-ahead preview, if Powell were to stick to his guns and suggest waiting for more clarity before advocating for a rate cut, you can expect a hawkish market response. This should benefit US Treasury yields along with the US dollar (USD), and weigh on Stocks.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman also hit the wires yesterday and doubled down on her dissent. Speaking to Bloomberg, Bowman said that ‘the story is out there’, and added that ‘she had not changed her views’.

You may recall that both Bowman and Fed Governor Christopher Waller dissented at the previous Fed meeting, calling for a 25-basis point (bp) rate cut, which marked the first time since the 1980s that two Fed Governors dissented. She also brushed off speculation that she is in the running for the new Fed Chair spot.

NZD and GBP in Focus in Early Trading

In the FX space, the USD rose for a second consecutive day on Tuesday, up 0.2% according to the USD Index, and found acceptance north of the 50-day simple moving average at 98.07. The New Zealand dollar (NZD) is down versus G10 peers this morning, following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) reducing its cash rate by 25 bps to 3.0%.

Per the central bank’s updated forecasts, the RBNZ now projects higher inflation/unemployment along with lower economic activity, and scope for two additional rate cuts – one at the end of 2025 and another in early 2026. You will also see that the minutes show there were discussions of a 50-bp cut today!

The British pound (GBP) was also in the spotlight earlier this morning, immediately catching a bid following the July UK CPI inflation data (Consumer Price Index). Headline YY inflation accelerated to 3.8%, largely driven by airfares, and bettered both the median estimate of 3.7% and June’s reading of 3.6%.

YoY core inflation also edged higher by 3.8%, up from the 3.7% consensus/previous data, with the YY services print coming in at 5.0%, surpassing the 4.8% forecast and up from the 4.7% previous figure. While hotter-than-expected data could keep the Bank of England (BoE) at bay this year, we have to remember the central bank is expecting inflation to reach 4.0% in September. As you would expect, investors have pared rate-cut bets on the back of the latest inflation numbers.

Spot Gold Testing The Lower Boundary Of Potential Weekly Pennant Pattern

Across commodities, Spot Gold (XAU/USD), Spot Silver (XAG/USD), and WTI Oil (West Texas Intermediate) all explored deeper water yesterday, shedding 0.5%, 1.7%, and 0.9%, respectively. For any technical analysts reading, Gold is currently shaking hands with the lower boundary of a potential weekly bullish pennant pattern, extending from the low of US$3,120. What is interesting here is that price is now at the pattern’s apex, meaning a breakout could be imminent.

Nasdaq 100: Investors Eye Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Amid Profit-Taking_1

Source: investing

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Key points:

Bitcoin heads back below $113,000 at the Wall Street open as bulls fail to clinch support.

BTC price manipulation is one explanation for the downside, with exchange order-book bid liquidity in focus.

More crypto market volatility is expected from the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole event.

Bitcoin sought new local lows at Wednesday’s Wall Street open as bulls struggled to halt a repeat US sell-off. Bitcoin Analysts Point to ‘Manipulation’ as BTC Price Falls to 17-Day Low_1

Bitcoin Analysts Point to ‘Manipulation’ as BTC Price Falls to 17-Day Low_1

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin price pressure brings back “Spoofy the Whale”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it sank below $113,000 after initially reclaiming it after the daily open.

Bid liquidity was being taken on exchanges at the time of writing, with $112,300 now a level of interest, per data from CoinGlass.

“$BTC Took out a bunch of liquidity on both sides for the past 6 weeks, as it ranged around this same price region,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades summarized on liquidity conditions in his latest post on X.

“The biggest cluster in close proximity now sits at around $120K and of course the local range low at $112K is still in play. Keep an eye out of those areas as they often act as local reversal zones and/or magnets when price gets close to them.”BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, suggested that more bid liquidity appearing lower down the order book — including “plunge protection” at $105,000 — could be a form of price manipulation.

Alan referred to entities for whom he coined the phrases “Spoofy the Whale” and the “Notorious B.I.D.” — both apt to artificially influence price action in recent months.

“Too soon to make any assumptions, but the influence on price direction will be the same,” he concluded.

“Bids moving lower invites price to move lower.”BTC/USDT order book liquidity with whale volume data. Source: Keith Alan/X

Continuing, popular commentator TheKingfisher warned that Bitcoin could “bleed” further, which would have significant consequences for altcoins.

“Altcoins currently show a balanced skew. We might see a minor retrace aimed at liquidating high-leverage shorts. Momentum remains steady,” part of an X post read on the day.

“Still, we could see a gradual bleed, cascading block by block. While majors remain stable, a 5% BTC move could trigger 10–30% drops in alts.”Total altcoin market cap one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

A silver lining came from popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who compared current price action to previous bull-market corrections.

“One of the most positive things about this current pullback is that this same type of retrace took place at this same moment in the cycle in both 2017 and 2021,” he told X followers.

“In both 2017 and 2021, each of those retraces preceded upside to new All Time Highs.”

All eyes on Fed’s Powell at Jackson Hole

With the minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting due, trading firm QCP Capital looked to Friday’s speech by Chair Jerome Powell.

Under heavy pressure to cut interest rates, Powell will take to the stage at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole economic symposium.

As Cointelegraph reported, last year saw Powell channel details about forthcoming rate cuts. His language will be watched by markets looking for confirmation that September’s meeting will yield that outcome.

“The stakes are high: setting the path of monetary policy as markets balance easing inflation against rising labour risks,” QCP wrote in its latest “Asia Color” update on Wednesday.

“Markets are currently pricing an 80–95 % probability of a 25‑basis‑point cut at the 17 Sep FOMC, yet incoming data could shift expectations quickly.”Fed target rate probabilities for September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group FedWatch Tool

Source: Cointelegraph

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Adam

Commodity

Market Overview

Oil and natural gas prices steadied midweek, with WTI crude climbing above $62 per barrel after U.S. inventories fell 2.4 million barrels, nearly double expectations. The draw signals resilient demand, yet gains remain limited as geopolitical tensions cloud the outlook.

Energy traders weigh the prospect of shifting global supply flows, including stronger Russian exports and higher OPEC+ output, which have pressured crude to a three-month low, down over 10% this month.

With uncertainty surrounding global negotiations and sanctions enforcement, both oil and gas markets face a fragile balance between supply risks and demand resilience.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart

Natural gas futures are trading at $2.75, holding near short-term support at $2.73 after failing to sustain momentum above $2.88. The broader trend remains pressured by a descending trendline, keeping upside capped below the 50-EMA ($2.83) and 100-EMA ($2.88).

If price breaks lower, the next downside targets stand at $2.67 and $2.61. On the other hand, a rebound above $2.80–2.83 could open the way for a retest of $2.95.

The RSI at 36.3 signals weak momentum, leaning toward continued selling pressure unless buyers step in around current support. Until a clear break above the descending trendline, the market remains vulnerable to further downside extension.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

WTI crude oil is trading at $62.47, showing early signs of stabilization after testing the $61.55 support zone. Price action remains capped by a descending trendline, aligning closely with the 50-EMA ($62.57) and 100-EMA ($63.24), reinforcing overhead resistance.

A decisive close above these levels could open the way toward $64.14 and $65.12, while failure to clear may extend the downtrend. On the downside, a break under $61.55 exposes $60.72 and potentially $59.91.

Momentum indicators show improving sentiment, with the RSI recovering to 54, suggesting buyers are attempting to regain control. For now, the structure favors a cautious watch for a confirmed breakout rather than premature positioning.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Price Chart

Brent crude is trading at $66.44, attempting to break above a descending trendline that has capped upside momentum since early August. Price is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle, with immediate resistance at $66.58 (100-EMA) and a stronger ceiling at $67.15.

A confirmed breakout above these levels could pave the way toward $68.15 and $69.14. On the downside, support rests at $65.30, followed by $64.61 if pressure builds. Momentum is improving, with the RSI at 58.4, suggesting growing bullish interest after a prolonged consolidation.

Until price clears the triangle’s upper boundary with volume, the market remains range-bound, favoring reactive trading strategies around support and resistance zones.

Source: fxempire

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Dark Current

Economic

Commodity

Key Points:

●Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased from 403.2 million barrels to 403.4 million barrels.

●Domestic oil production grew from 13.327 million bpd to 13.382 million bpd.

●WTI oil was mostly flat as traders reacted to the EIA report.

On August 20, 2025, EIA released its Weekly Petroleum Status Report. The report indicated that crude inventories decreased by -6 million barrels from the previous week, compared to analyst consensus of -1.3 million barrels. At current levels, crude inventories are about 6% below the five-year average for this time of the year.

Gasoline inventories declined by -2.7 million barrels, compared to analyst forecast of -0.8 million barrels. Distillate fuel inventories increased by +2.3 million barrels from the previous week.

Crude oil imports declined by 423,000 bpd, averaging 6.5 million bpd. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.4 million bpd.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased from 403.2 million barrels to 403.4 million barrels. The SPR continues to grow at a slow pace.

Domestic oil production increased from 13.327 million bpd to 13.382 million bpd. From a big picture point of view, domestic oil production stabilized after recent pullback.

WTI oil was mostly flat after the release of the EIA report. Currently, WTI oil is trying to settle above the $62.50 level.

Brent oil made an attempt to settle above the $66.50 level as traders reacted to the report. Falling crude inventories may provide some support to oil markets, although traders remain worried about oversupply due to rising production from OPEC+ countries.

Source: FX Empire

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Adam

Economic

My broader view on the S&P500 (SPX) is that we are coming to the conclusion of a rally, which can represent a major long-term top in the United States equity market. This would conclude an almost 100-year bull market which began at the bottom of the market crash of 1929. In fact, this could usher in a bear market that would rival the one seen in Japan, which lasted for well over a decade.

Not only has this market has done a phenomenal job of convincing investors that such a scenario is impossible, but it has attracted new investors with thoughts of constant profits since the market has "always come back” in a Pavlovian manner. This will likely be a bane to the average investor once the bear market begins.

French writer Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr seems to be the first person quoted (in 1849) as proclaiming that “the more things change, the more they stay the same.” As I am sure many understand, he was providing insight into the fact that, while events and circumstances may seem to change in our “modern” era, the underlying driver of human sentiment does not. This truly encapsulates how our financial markets work.

Currently, we are hearing how “this time is different” again. Most analysts are pointing towards AI as the reason for this newly found and ubiquitous confidence in the stock market. But, anyone who has traded or invested in the stock market for more than a decade or two knows quite well how fallacious this perspective to be.

So, while many of these newly minted bulls are certain of this market’s infallibility, on my travels this summer through Europe and the United States, I cannot tell you how many people have told me that their children in their teenage years or their early 20’s have taken up trading, because, as their children have put it, “it is so easy to make money.”

Yet, analysts are really not much different. The only real difference is they try to come up with “reasoning” for what their hearts tell them to do. As Ben Franklin astutely noted, “so convenient a thing it is to be a reasonable creature, since it enables one to find or to make a reason for everything one has a mind to do.”

So, as I have read a number of missives of late which explain why this market has so much higher to go, many of these analysts seem to be basing their expectations on earnings. So, I am going to take a moment to comment on some of their analysis. One author started with the following premise:

“You see, great investors aren’t focused on the moment. They’re trying to discern what the environment will look like a year down the road.” All this statement did was make me wonder if he truly believed that investors are omniscient or clairvoyant? But, I digress. Let’s get to the heart of their “reasoning.”

Most of these investors claim that companies are beating their earnings estimates this year. And, they go on to explain that, based upon these earnings estimates, the market should be heading to 7000 (or higher) by the end of the year.

While it is possible and they may be right about the market having much further to go, I do not think it is probable. Nor do I think that following earnings in a linear manner is an appropriate way to prognosticate the stock market.

First, anyone who has been involved in markets long enough knows quite well that the earnings season is nothing more than a game. Analysts will often lower expectations right before earnings so that the reported earnings can easily beat those expectations.

Second, I do not believe utilizing earnings in a linear fashion to project stock market targets, as is done by most analysts, is an accurate manner to prognosticate the market, especially at the major turns.

While I know many of you may not want to read that full article, I do want to quote certain pertinent items to drive home my point. Finance professor Robert Olson published an article in 1996 in the Financial Analysts Journal in which he presented the conclusions of his study of 4000 corporate earnings estimates by company analysts:

“Experts’ earnings predictions exhibit positive bias and disappointing accuracy. These shortcomings are usually attributed to some combination of incomplete knowledge, incompetence, and/or misrepresentation. This article suggests that the human desire for consensus leads to herding behavior among earnings forecasters.”

In Daniel Crosby’s book The Behavioral Investor, he noted the following:

“Contrarian investor David Dreman found that most (59%) of Wall Street consensus forecasts miss their targets by gaps so large as to make the results unusable – either undershooting or overshooting the actual number by more than 15%. Further analysis by Dreman found that from 1973-1993, the nearly 80,000 estimates he looked at had a mere 1 in 170 chance of being within 5% of the actual number.

"James Montier sheds some light on the difficulty of forecasting in his “Little Book of Behavioral Investing.” In 2000, the average target price of stocks was 37% above market price and they ended up 16%. In 2008, the average forecast was a 28% increase and the market fell 40%. Between 2000 and 2008, analysts failed to even get the direction right in four out of the nine years.

"Finally, Michael Sandretto of Harvard and Sudhir Milkrishnamurthi of MIT looked at the one-year forecasts of 1000 companies covered most widely by analysts. They found that analysts were consistently inconsistent, missing the market by an annual rate of 31.3% on average.”

So, considering the game that analysts play each earnings season, as well as the facts brought to light by these various studies (and, yes, there are many more such studies), do we really believe that projecting earnings linearly into the future is going to “discern what the environment will look like a year down the road?”

I think not.

So, again, while these analysts may be right that we rally into the end of the year in a linear fashion to 7000 or higher, I do not believe this to be probable. Nor do I believe that this time is different. Human nature has not changed in a millennia, and it is human nature which drives financial market prices.

And, no linear analysis will ever be able to determine when human nature will decide to change direction, as linear analysis only presupposes that the current trend continues unabated. How did that work out in 2007 or in early 2020?

While the market has certainly exceeded my expectations based upon the standards we apply, I will not attempt to justify it based upon reasoning. And, why would I? If the market is driven by emotion, why would I attempt to reason within an emotional environment? This is akin to attempting to reason with your spouse while they are being emotional. How well does that work for you?

Rather, when I see a market that has not seen more than a .236 retracement since mid-April, it tells me that the extreme madness of the crowds has taken over, and the market is likely very stretched to the upside. So, we need to seek out clues as to when the crowd eventually runs out of room.

In conclusion, while some of you may have viewed me of late as a perma-bear, I can assure you that is not the case. I do not know any perma-bears who were going aggressively long at the bottom of the Covid crash or in October of 2022, or near the bottom of the April 2025 decline.

Rather, I am viewing this market rally with a healthy dose of concern, as the much longer-term pattern off not just the 2008 low, but off the 1931 low seems to be coming to a conclusion. Therefore, I will continue to approach the market with that healthy dose of concern and caution in all my analysis, as well as a large cash position in my own accounts. Please recognize this when reading my analysis.

S&P 500: Is a Bear Market Even Possible?_1

Source: investing

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Thomas

Central Bank

FILE PHOTO: Lisa DeNell Cook, nominee to be a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, testifies during a Senate Banking nominations hearing on June 21, 2023 in Washington, DC.

President Donald Trump on Wednesday demanded that Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook resign after a U.S. housing agency chief called on the Department of Justice to launch a criminal mortgage fraud investigation into the central bank official.

"Cook must resign, now!!!" Trump wrote in a Truth Social post that linked to a Bloomberg report on the allegations that Bill Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, has lodged against Cook.

The Fed declined CNBC's request for comment on Pulte's claims and Trump's reaction.

It's the latest example of the Trump administration airing allegations of mortgage-related wrongdoing against the president's opponents. The Justice Department is investigating Sen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., and New York Attorney General Letitia James on similar grounds.

The remarks also show Trump expanding his attacks on the Fed beyond its chairman, Jerome Powell, as he pressures the central bank to slash interest rates.

Cook, who was nominated by former President Joe Biden in 2022, voted with the majority on the Federal Open Market Committee to keep rates unchanged after the group's latest meeting last month.

Pulte, an aggressive critic of Powell, wrote in the letter dated Aug. 15 that mortgage documents obtained by FHFA appear to show Cook "falsified bank documents and property records to acquire more favorable loan terms, potentially committing mortgage fraud."

He accused Cook of "falsifying residence statuses" for a residence in Ann Arbor, Michigan, and a property in Atlanta, Georgia "in order to potentially secure lower interest rates and more favorable loan terms."

For both properties, Cook "appears to have acquired mortgages that do not meet certain lending requirements and could have received favorable loan terms under fraudulent circumstances," Pulte alleged.

Source: CNBC

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Political

The selloff in Chinese bonds that sent them to near the bottom of Asia’s performance rankings is likely to cool for now as yields rise to near levels which some investors may perceive as attractive, analysts say.The benchmark 10-year bond yield has climbed to the highest in four months and is within whisker of 1.8%, a level that brokerages including Huachuang Securities see as appealing. Investors may start to rethink their strategy of shunning stocks for bonds, with rising yields also enhancing returns on trades that involve borrowing from the money market to buy debt.

Chinese government bonds, which some saw as a surest bet for returns earlier this year, stumbled in July as bets on a trade truce with the US and Beijing’s efforts to quell deflation improved China’s growth prospects. Signs that the People’s Bank of China may refrain from aggressive policy easing and the reintroduction of a tax on bond interest further weighed on debt this month, making them the worst performers in Asia after India.“Long-term bonds are beginning to look attractive now,” said Xing Zhaopeng, senior China strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. “I expect the 10-year yield to hover between 1.75% to 1.8% by the end of September.”

Investors who rushed for stocks may start having second thoughts, considering their relative value versus bonds. Government bonds haven’t been this cheap compared with equities since 2021, as per Bloomberg calculations based on the 10-year sovereign yield and the earnings yield on the Shanghai Composite Index.

Bonds are also more appealing for leveraged traders. The once popular strategy of using overnight cash borrowed from the money market to buy bonds — which drove some of the most spectacular bull runs in China’s debt market — is at its most profitable since December.“The worst pressure facing Chinese bonds may be over in the near term,” China Securities analysts led by Zeng Yu wrote in a note. “Some financial institutions will start trying finding opportunities to add positions.”

Waning bearish sentiment may also be seen favorably by policymakers.

That’s because a further selloff in bonds risks triggering redemptions from wealth management products. Huachuang Securities and China Securities say this can create a negative feedback loop that amplifies the rout.The PBOC added to its support for the bond market on Wednesday by injecting most amount of short-term cash into the financial system since late July. Keeping borrowing costs low not only helps the nation’s companies to finance operations but also facilitates the government’s debt issuance program.

While there’s a pause in declines, Chinese bonds are nowhere close to embarking on a bull run. Continued reallocation into stocks and a lack of monetary easing by the PBOC can still weigh on the debt market, said Winson Phoon, head of fixed income research at Malayan Banking Bhd in Singapore.Yields on 30-year bonds slipped one basis point on Wednesday. Earlier this week, a technical indicator suggested that 30-year bond futures are around the most oversold since they were made available in 2023, which some see as a sign for a turnaround.“The long-end may start to see some consolidation here,” said Clair Gao, a rates strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc.