Japanese Market Slightly Lower

Is the recent Bitcoin correction finally nearing its end? According to a fresh analysis from K33 Research, the answer might be yes. The firm sees a high probability of a Bitcoin rebound materializing as early as December, suggesting the current downturn could be setting the stage for a significant recovery. This perspective offers a beacon of hope for investors navigating the recent market volatility.

Why Does K33 Research Predict a Bitcoin Rebound?

K33 Research's optimistic outlook for a Bitcoin rebound is not based on mere speculation. Instead, it stems from a detailed examination of current market mechanics. The analysts point to specific on-chain and derivatives data that signal the selling pressure is exhausting itself. While the market has faced headwinds, the underlying structure appears resilient, paving the way for a potential upward shift.

What's Driving the Current Selling Pressure?

To understand the potential for a rebound, we must first look at what caused the dip. K33 identifies two primary sources of recent selling pressure:

However, the crucial insight is that these factors are now seen as temporary rather than structural.

The Bullish Case: Key Factors Supporting a BTC Recovery

Despite the selling, several powerful factors are aligning to support a Bitcoin rebound. K33 highlights these critical bullish signals that mitigate the downward pressure.

Is Low Leverage a Hidden Strength?

One of the most encouraging metrics is the low leverage burden across the market. Unlike previous cycles where excessive borrowing amplified crashes, the current correction has occurred with relatively low leverage. This means there are fewer forced liquidations to trigger a cascading sell-off. The market has been de-risking, which creates a more stable foundation for the next leg up.

Where is Bitcoin's Strong Support Zone?

Technical and on-chain analysis points to a formidable support zone between $70,000 and $80,000. This price range represents a massive concentration of investor cost basis, meaning many buyers entered the market here. This area acts as a psychological and economic floor, where buying interest historically intensifies, making a sustained drop below it less probable.

Could Policy Changes Fuel a Structural Uptrend?

Beyond technicals, K33 expects a "structural uptrend" to be driven by macro policy shifts. The evolving regulatory landscape in major economies like the U.S. is increasingly seen as moving toward clearer, more crypto-friendly frameworks. Positive regulatory clarity has always been a powerful catalyst for institutional capital inflows, which could supercharge the next Bitcoin rebound.

What Does This Mean for Investors Before December?

The analysis suggests a strategic perspective for market participants. The approach of December, often a seasonally positive month for asset prices, combined with the identified technical supports, creates a compelling setup. For investors, this period of consolidation may represent an accumulation opportunity ahead of the anticipated Bitcoin rebound.

In summary, K33 Research provides a data-driven case for optimism. While short-term flows have caused friction, the core market structure remains healthy with strong support, low systemic risk from leverage, and a favorable policy horizon. December is pinpointed not as a guarantee, but as a high-probability window for this positive momentum to manifest, potentially marking a decisive turn from correction to recovery.

Source: CryptoSlate

Japan's economy shrank in the three months through September, the government confirmed in a revised report, giving further justification for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's stimulus package announced last month.

Gross domestic product fell at an annualized pace of 2.3% in the third quarter, as revised figures showed business spending and housing investment came in weaker than preliminary figures. The contraction was deeper than the initial reading of a 1.8% fall, and was the first in six quarters.

The lackluster results back up Takaichi's stimulus package, which featured the largest fresh spending since the pandemic. It adds an element of complexity to the Bank of Japan's upcoming policy decision latesr next week, but likely won't derail it from its gradual hiking path.

To ease the burden of inflation on households, Takaichi unveiled a stimulus package featuring ¥17.7 trillion ($114 billion) in planned fresh spending. Outlays from the package include price-relief steps such as utility subsidies and tax cuts, as well as wage-support measures aimed largely at helping smaller firms. Labor unions in the country are pushing for continued growth in pay negotiations after the strong pay hikes of recent years.

The government estimates that the package will lift the nation's GDP by an average of about 1.4 percentage points per year on an annualized basis for three years, assuming the measures take effect during that span. Making sure that voters feel the hit from inflation is easing is key for Takaichi, whose predecessors have been ousted from office partly due to simmering discontent over the cost of living.

Meanwhile, overnight-indexed swaps now indicate an around 90% chance of the central bank hiking this month, following Governor Kazuo Ueda's strong hints last week that an increase in borrowing costs is coming soon. Given that the quarterly economic decline is likely to be temporary and largely caused by one-off factors including housing regulation changes, Monday's data is unlikely to derail the BOJ from its policy path too much.

Separate labor ministry data on Monday showed real wages fell 0.7% from the previous year in October, the 10th straight month of decline. While nominal wages rose 2.6% and base salaries climbed at the same pace in a sign of sustained pay momentum, the pace is still slower than inflation. A more stable measure, which avoids sampling issues and excludes bonuses and overtime, climbed 2.2% for regular workers, slowing slightly from the previous month.

Japan's main price gauge has remained at or above the BOJ's 2% target for more than three and a half years, marking the longest streak since the early 1990s.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Oil prices hovered at two-week highs on Monday as investors expect a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this week that will lift economic growth and energy demand while eyeing geopolitical risks that threaten oil supplies from Russia and Venezuela.

Brent crude futures rose 4 cents, or 0.06%, to $63.79 a barrel by 0008 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $60.15 a barrel, up 7 cents, or 0.12%.

Both contracts closed Friday's session at their highest levels since November 18.

Markets are pricing in an 84% chance of a quarter-point cut at the Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, LSEG data show, although it is expected to be one of its most contentious in years and investors are focused on the U.S. central bank's policy direction and internal dynamics.

In Europe, progress in Ukraine peace talks remains slow, with disputes over security guarantees for Kyiv and the status of Russian-occupied territory still unresolved.

"The outcome of current negotiations could have a big impact on the oil market," ANZ analysts said in a note.

"The various potential outcomes from Trump's latest push to end the war could release a swing in oil supply of more than 2 million barrels per day."

In the meantime, the Group of Seven countries and the European Union are in talks to replace a price cap on Russian oil exports with a full maritime services ban, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters, which may curb supplies from the world's second-largest producer.

The U.S. has also ramped up pressure on OPEC member Venezuela, including strikes against alleged drug-smuggling boats and threats of military action to overthrow President Nicolas Maduro's government.

Chinese independent refiners have stepped up purchases of sanctioned Iranian oil from onshore storage tanks using newly issued import quotas, trade sources and analysts said, easing a supply glut.

Source: Reuters

Keir Starmer will host Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in London on Monday as the UK prime minister and other key European leaders seek to steer US-led peace talks toward a resolution that protects Ukraine from the prospect of future Russian aggression.

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will join in the early-afternoon discussions in Downing Street. UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, meanwhile, will head to Washington for the first time in her present role to meet with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other officials.

The discussions on both sides of the Atlantic coincide with European fears that the transatlantic alliance is fracturing after the US last month proposed a 28-point peace plan drafted with Russia that would have barred Ukraine from joining NATO, capped the size of its military and ceded territory to Moscow.

While discussions have since accommodated for Ukrainian demands, European leaders are keen to ensure Russian President Vladimir Putin isn't seen to be rewarded for his aggression.

"The principle behind the talks will be for Ukraine to be able to decide its own future," UK cabinet minister Pat McFadden told Sky News on Sunday. "This is a really pivotal moment. Everybody wants the war to come to an end, but they want it to come to an end in a way that gives Ukraine that freedom of choice in the future. That means a just end to the war, but also security guarantees for Ukraine in the future and not a completely toothless organization which is unable to decide its future."

At the weekend, Russia conducted a massive attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure involving hundreds of drones and more than 50 missiles that took out power in Kyiv, Odesa and five other regions. Ukraine said it hit Rosneft PJSC's Ryazan oil refinery 120 miles (193 kilometers) southeast of Moscow.

Ukraine's European supporters have been hoping that if they can support Kyiv through the winter, Russia's economic struggles will intensify next year, and Putin will lose his negotiating leverage.

With US aid drying up, European leaders have been working on a plan to use Russian central bank assets frozen in Belgium to fund Ukraine. Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever has resisted the idea, arguing Belgium could be on the hook if Russia sues in response.

About €210 billion in Russian assets are immobilized on EU soil, mostly in the Brussels-based securities depository Euroclear. EU leaders aim to reach a consensus on the proposal at a meeting in the Belgian capital on Dec. 18.

Starmer on Sunday spoke with Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof, agreeing on "the need for sustained international support for Ukraine's defense," 10 Downing Street said in a readout of the phone call. "The leaders reiterated that Ukraine's security is vital for Europe's security," it said.

Starmer has sought to position himself as the European leader closest to US President Donald Trump, as well as Ukraine's leading ally. That's a tricky proposition given the longstanding friction between the US and Ukrainian leaders that manifested itself in a shouting match in the Oval Office in February.

In Washington, Cooper will convey Britain's support for Trump's "efforts to secure a just and lasting peace," according to a statement from the Foreign Office. She'll also discuss the situation in Gaza and the conflict in Sudan with Rubio, it said.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

South Korean retail investors' $31 billion record purchases of US stocks this year have turned them into scapegoats for the country's weakening currency. They are furious.

Asia's worst performer this quarter, the Korean won came close to hitting a 16-year-low in recent weeks. Officials, including the Bank of Korea governor, have blamed the retail traders' appetite for overseas equities for hurting the currency.

The accusation "stunned" many of the country's estimated 14 million mom-and-pop investors, said office worker Park Eun-hye, who has been buying US stocks for years. People were "absolutely livid" that they were being held responsible for the won's slide, she added.

Small investors are "easy targets" for blame, Park said, when in fact "excessive liquidity and other broader factors could play a much bigger role."

Priced out of Seoul's red-hot real estate and fed up of lackluster returns on the Kospi — which had languished for a decade before 2025's unusual bull run — South Korea's army of retail investors have turned to high-risk options, from crypto to leveraged overseas exchange-traded funds, in a bid to create wealth. But their industriousness is now frustrating Seoul's top financial policymakers.

Korean retail investors have snapped up an unprecedented net $31 billion worth of US equities this year, according to Korea Securities Depository data. That's nearly triple the amount they bought in 2024 and more than 12 times the level in 2019.

One prominent local paper ran a headline decrying a possible "foreign exchange crisis" — which the government has roundly denied. Official data showed equities outflows totaled about $18 billion in October, the bulk of which was linked to retail investors, versus roughly $3 billion coming in.

"If more money flows out of the country than comes in, it can drive the won weaker or limit its strength," said Stephen Lee, economist at Meritz Securities, adding that Koreans' overseas equity investments were "a natural outcome" of the expected returns.

The "trend" of young South Koreans piling into overseas stocks is concerning, BOK Governor Rhee Chang Yong said late last month, and authorities are tightening rules on leveraged buying of ETFs listed offshore.

But Koreans are not buying "foreign stocks just because it is cool," ex-trader and portfolio manager turned YouTube financial influencer Syuka said on his widely-watched channel. Such purchases resulted from a decade of stagnation in the local market, he said.

The outflows have persisted even as the Kospi Index has risen more than 70% to become one of the world's best performers this year, thanks in part to optimism about corporate reforms and President Lee Jae Myung's repeated pledge to boost market value.

Targeted government efforts are key to fixing the won's weakness, said Jung Eui-jung, head of the Korea Stockholders Alliance, adding that officials should "self-reflect" and scrutinize their policies, not "shift blame" to retail investors.

Even some officials have taken a softer line on the issue, with Financial Supervisory Service Governor Lee Chan-jin saying he could "empathize" with Korean traders' desperate hunt for returns.

"Blaming the exchange rate rise solely on retail investors investing overseas is overinterpretation," said 27-year-old retail investor Won Jung Yeon who runs a financial tips YouTube channel.

He started trading stocks after realizing he'd never get rich off a salary alone and said all "retail investors make investment decisions solely for profit."

If the incentives were right, more investors like Park Minyeol, a Seoul-based public official in his 30s who has invested heavily in overseas stocks, said they could be lured home. He's "considering putting about 10–20% of my money into domestic equities," due to his interest in Korean robotics stocks.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Japan's economy shrank more sharply in the third quarter than previously estimated, according to a revised release from the Cabinet Office of Japan on Monday.

The revised annualised contraction came in at 2.3%, compared with an earlier reading of a 1.8% decline and a median forecast for a 2.0% fall.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, gross domestic product fell 0.6%, steeper than the initial 0.4% contraction and exceeding a median forecast of a 0.5% decline.

Private consumption -- a key engine of the economy -- managed a modest rebound, rising 0.2% compared with a 0.1% uptick in the preliminary reading. Meanwhile, capital expenditure was revised downward sharply, showing a 0.2% drop instead of the 1.0% rise initially reported.

External demand remained a drain on growth, with net exports subtracting 0.2 percentage points, while domestic demand contributed a 0.4-point drag, worse than earlier estimates.

The deeper contraction reflects lingering headwinds from weak global demand, trade frictions, and subdued private investment. The weaker reading could complicate near-term economic prospects for Japan, even as policymakers weigh fiscal and monetary measures to support growth.

The data could also temper near-term expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike, as focus remains on new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's plans for more fiscal spending.

Source: Investing