Iran's Leaders Fear US Strike Could Unleash Public Uprising

Russia has largely halted its attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed on Monday, providing a crucial reprieve as Kyiv prepares for trilateral peace talks with Russian and U.S. officials.

While energy facilities in frontline areas continue to take fire, Zelenskyy noted a 24-hour pause in targeted missile and drone strikes on the national grid. This lull comes as Ukraine struggles to repair its power system amid a harsh winter and Russia appears to be shifting its military focus to transport logistics.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addresses the ongoing conflict and diplomatic efforts.

"The de-escalation measures... are helping to build public trust in the negotiation process and its possible outcome," Zelenskyy said after meeting his negotiating team. "The war needs to be ended."

Looking ahead to peace talks scheduled this week in Abu Dhabi, he added, "Ukraine is ready for real steps. We believe it is realistic to achieve a dignified and lasting peace."

A Disputed Truce Timeline

While both Russia and Ukraine acknowledged a halt to strikes on each other's energy infrastructure last week, they disagree on the ceasefire's duration.

The Kremlin stated that U.S. President Donald Trump personally asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to avoid striking Kyiv until February 1. However, Zelenskyy maintained the truce was intended to last for one week, beginning on January 30.

Race Against Time to Restore Power

For Ukraine, the pause is critical. The country is scrambling to restore its battered energy system and ensure stable electricity and heating following several major Russian attacks this month. Repair efforts have been severely hampered by freezing temperatures.

"Today we are coming to the critical point. We need some time to recover what is destroyed for the last three months," explained Maxim Timchenko, CEO of private energy company DTEK. He stressed that an "energy ceasefire is extremely important for us to recover partly and avoid any tragic consequences because of no power supply."

Russia Shifts Focus as Attacks Continue

Despite the lull in energy strikes, other attacks persist. DTEK reported on Monday that one of its coal mining operations in the Dnipropetrovsk region was attacked for the second time in 24 hours. A previous strike on Sunday killed 12 miners at a different coal mine in the same region.

President Zelenskyy also noted that Russian forces are now concentrating on transport logistics, particularly railway infrastructure.

The human cost remains high in frontline regions. Officials in the Donetsk region reported that a Russian strike killed a father and son, while wounding two other children and their mother.

A statement posted on OPEC's website on February 1 revealed that, in a meeting held on Sunday, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman "reaffirmed their decision on 2 November 2025 to pause production increments in March 2026 due to seasonality".

According to a table accompanying the statement, "required production" in March this year is 10.103 million barrels per day for Saudi Arabia, 9.574 million barrels per day for Russia, 4.273 million barrels per day for Iraq, 3.411 million barrels per day for the UAE, 2.580 million barrels per day for Kuwait, 1.569 million barrels per day for Kazakhstan, 971,000 barrels per day for Algeria, and 811,000 barrels per day for Oman.

The statement highlighted that the eight OPEC+ countries, "which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023", met virtually on February 1 "to review global market conditions and outlook". It said the eight participating countries "reiterated that the 1.65 million barrels per day may be returned in part or in full subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner".

"The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability, they reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to continue pausing or reverse the additional voluntary production adjustments, including the previously implemented voluntary adjustments of the 2.2 million barrels per day announced in November 2023," the statement said.

"The eight countries reiterated their collective commitment to achieve full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, including the additional voluntary production adjustments that will be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee," it added.

"They also confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any overproduced volume since January 2024," it continued.

The statement went on to note that the eight OPEC+ countries will hold monthly meetings "to review market conditions, conformity, and compensation", adding that the eight countries will meet on March 1.

A separate statement posted on OPEC's site on Sunday announced that the 64th Meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) took place via videoconference that day, adding that the JMMC reviewed the crude oil production data for the months of November and December 2025 "and noted the overall conformity for OPEC and non-OPEC countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation".

"The committee reiterated the critical importance of achieving full conformity and compensation, and reviewed the updated compensation schedules," the statement said.

"The committee also reaffirmed that it will continue to monitor adherence to the production adjustments decided upon at the 38th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM) held on 5 December 2024, and the additional voluntary production adjustments announced by some participating OPEC and non-OPEC countries as agreed upon in the 52nd JMMC held on 1 February 2024," it added.

"The JMMC retains the authority to convene additional meetings or to request an OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting, as established during the 38th ONOMM held on 5 December 2024," it continued.

The next meeting of the JMMC is scheduled for April 5, according to the statement.

In another statement posted on OPEC's site on February 2, the OPEC Secretariat announced that it had received updated compensation plans from Iraq, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kazakhstan, and Oman.

A table accompanying this statement showed that these compensation plans amount to a total of 659,000 barrels per day in January 2026, 789,000 barrels per day in February, 665,000 barrels per day in March, 706,000 barrels per day in April, 707,000 barrels per day in May, and 807,000 barrels per day in June.

"As agreed during the virtual meeting held by the eight countries with additional voluntary adjustments, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman on 4 January 2026, the OPEC Secretariat received updated compensation plans," the OPEC Secretariat said in the statement.

Source: Rigzone

The European Union faces a major struggle to reduce its dependence on China and other nations for the critical minerals and rare earths essential for modern technology, from smartphones and wind turbines to military hardware.

A stark report from the European Court of Auditors (ECA) concludes that the bloc's 2030 self-sufficiency targets are "out of reach." The auditors point to a severe lack of progress in developing domestic production, refining capacity, and recycling programs.

"It is therefore vital for the EU to up its game and reduce its vulnerability in this area," said Keit Pentus-Rosimannus, the ECA member who led the audit.

The report highlights a wide gap between the EU's goals—such as generating 42.5% of its energy from renewables by 2030—and the reality of its insecure supply chains.

Domestic Production Woefully Behind Schedule

The ECA's findings on the EU's internal capacity are particularly damning. The report states that mining and exploration within the bloc are "underdeveloped."

Even when new mineral deposits are discovered, the process is painfully slow. According to the audit, "it can take 20 years for an EU mining project to become operational." This timeline makes any significant contribution by the 2030 deadline difficult to imagine.

The EU aims to boost domestic mining to reduce its reliance on foreign suppliers, but new projects can take up to 20 years to become operational.

Global Alliances Scramble to Counter China

As the EU's internal efforts lag, Western nations are coordinating to diversify their mineral sources and de-risk their supply chains from China.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio convened a summit of approximately 20 countries in Washington to address the sourcing of lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper, and rare earth elements—all vital for solar panels, wind turbines, and electric car batteries. The summit is viewed as an effort to mend transatlantic relations after friction with Donald Trump.

Separately, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his Japanese counterpart, Sanae Takaichi, agreed during talks in Tokyo to accelerate cooperation on critical minerals.

Mapping the EU's Deep Dependence on Imports

An analysis of the EU's supply chains reveals a heavy reliance on a few key countries, particularly China and Russia. Russia, for example, supplies 29% of the nickel used in the EU's automotive and aerospace industries.

Reliance on China

The EU is heavily dependent on China for at least seven of the 26 critical minerals studied. Key imports include:

• Magnesium: 97% (used in hydrogen production)

• Gallium: 71% (used in smartphones and satellite communications)

• Tungsten: 31% (used in drilling and mining)

China also dominates the market for rare earths, controlling between 69% and 74% of six crucial elements. This includes neodymium and praseodymium, which are essential for the permanent magnets found in everything from car locking systems to wind turbines. In 2024 alone, 17,000 of the 20,000 tonnes of permanent magnets used by EU industry came from China.

Other Key Suppliers

The EU's dependency extends beyond China. Chile is a major source of lithium for electric car batteries, while Turkey supplies 99% of the bloc's boron, a material used in solar panels.

A Vicious Cycle Threatening EU Autonomy

The ECA warns that the EU may be "trapped in a vicious circle." Without a secure supply of these materials, its strategic goals are at risk.

"Without critical raw materials, there will be no energy transition, no competitiveness, and no strategic autonomy," said Pentus-Rosimannus. "Unfortunately, we are now dangerously dependent on a handful of countries outside the EU for the supply of these materials."

This sentiment was echoed by EU industry commissioner Stéphane Séjourné, who stated that Europe was "doomed to be just a playground for its competitors" if it fails to develop an "ambitious, effective and pragmatic industrial policy."

The auditors concluded that the EU's "efforts to diversify imports have yet to produce tangible results." In fact, partnerships established with seven countries to boost supplies actually saw deliveries fall between 2020 and 2024.

The statistics paint a stark picture: 10 of the 26 main critical minerals are entirely imported, none of the 17 rare earth metals are mined within the EU, and only 16 critical raw materials are currently recycled in the bloc.

Greenland’s government has accused Washington of continuing to pursue control over the strategic Arctic island, asserting that the U.S. objective remains unchanged even after President Donald Trump ruled out military action.

Figure 1: U.S. President Donald Trump's stated interest in Greenland has created diplomatic and psychological pressure on the Arctic island's population.

In a speech to the island's parliament in Nuuk, Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen delivered a stark warning about Washington's intentions. "The view upon Greenland and the population has not changed: Greenland is to be tied to the U.S. and governed from there," Nielsen stated, adding that the U.S. continues to seek "paths to ownership and control over Greenland."

Background: Trump's Push and NATO's Role

Earlier this year, President Trump intensified calls for the U.S. to take control of Greenland, citing national security concerns related to Russia and China. The move drew criticism from some European NATO allies, who defended Denmark's sovereignty over the territory and warned that Trump's pressure could fracture the alliance.

While the U.S. president later stepped back from any threats of force, he claimed to have secured "total U.S. access" to Greenland through a NATO deal, though the specifics of this arrangement have not been clarified.

Public Anxiety Prompts Mental Health Survey

The sustained pressure from the U.S. has taken a toll on the island's population. The Greenlandic government recently launched a survey to assess the mental health of its citizens, citing an environment of "extraordinary pressure."

"Some of our compatriots have severe sleep problems, children feel the worry and anxiety of adults, and we all live with constant uncertainty about what may happen tomorrow," Nielsen said. "We want to say it very clearly: This is completely unacceptable."

Diplomatic Talks Begin Amid Tensions

In response to the escalating situation, diplomatic talks involving the United States, Denmark, and Greenland commenced last week. According to Denmark's foreign ministry, senior officials met to "discuss how we can address American concerns about security in the Arctic while respecting the Kingdom's red lines."

Throughout the crisis, Nielsen has praised Denmark as a close and reliable partner. He has previously said that if Greenlanders were forced to choose between the U.S. and Denmark, they would unequivocally choose Denmark. His latest speech made no reference to independence for Greenland.

Cultural Divide Over Land and Sovereignty

The debate over ownership directly conflicts with the cultural values of Greenland's native Inuit population. Under Greenlandic law, which reflects the Inuit concept of collective land stewardship, individuals can own houses but not the land on which they are built. This foundational principle stands in sharp contrast to the U.S. approach to land ownership, adding another layer of complexity to the diplomatic standoff.

Iran and the United States are scheduled to resume nuclear negotiations in Turkey on Friday, according to officials from both nations. The talks, which will also include representatives from countries such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, aim to revive diplomacy over Iran's nuclear program and ease fears of a new war in the region.

The meeting in Istanbul will bring together U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. Regional allies, including Turkey, have been pushing for de-escalation. A regional diplomat confirmed that Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt would attend the meeting, which will involve bilateral and trilateral discussions.

Naval Buildup Sets Tense Backdrop

The talks are happening under a cloud of high tension, marked by a U.S. naval buildup near Iran. This follows a deadly crackdown on anti-government protests in Iran last month, the most severe domestic unrest since the 1979 revolution.

U.S. President Donald Trump, who held back from military intervention during the protests, has since dispatched a flotilla to Iran's coast while demanding nuclear concessions. Last week, Trump stated that Iran was "seriously talking," a sentiment echoed by Tehran's top security official, Ali Larijani, who confirmed that arrangements for negotiations were underway.

Iranian sources report that President Trump has laid out three conditions for restarting talks:

• Zero uranium enrichment in Iran.

• Limits on Tehran's ballistic missile program.

• An end to Iran's support for regional proxy groups.

Iran has consistently rejected these demands as infringements on its sovereignty. However, two Iranian officials indicated that the country's clerical leadership considers the ballistic missile program a more significant obstacle to a deal than the issue of uranium enrichment.

Diplomacy Hinges on Preconditions

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran was evaluating "the various dimensions and aspects of the talks," adding that "time is of the essence for Iran as it wants the lifting of unjust sanctions sooner." A Turkish ruling party official confirmed that both Washington and Tehran had agreed to refocus on diplomacy, a move that could avert potential U.S. military action.

Ahead of the talks, U.S. envoy Witkoff is expected to visit Israel to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the country's military chief.

An Iranian official stated that diplomacy is active but emphasized that for talks to resume, there should be no preconditions. He added that Iran is prepared to show flexibility on uranium enrichment, including handing over 400 kg of highly enriched uranium and accepting a zero-enrichment solution under a consortium arrangement. In return, Tehran wants U.S. military assets moved away from its vicinity before talks begin.

"Now the ball is in Trump's court," the official said.

Nuclear Site Activity and Regional Context

Iran's regional influence has been weakened by Israeli attacks on its proxies—including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis—and the ousting of its key ally, former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

In June of last year, the United States joined an Israeli bombing campaign, striking Iranian nuclear targets over a 12-day period. Since then, Tehran has claimed its uranium enrichment activities have stopped. However, recent satellite images of two targeted sites, Isfahan and Natanz, show some repair work has been undertaken since December, with new roofing visible on two previously destroyed buildings.

According to Washington-based think tank ISIS, satellite imagery from late January shows construction at tunnel entrances at the Isfahan site. The think tank noted this could "indicate a preparation for additional military strikes," similar to activity seen before last year's U.S. attacks, or it could signal the movement of assets from other facilities.

Stalled Negotiations and Uranium Stockpiles

After five rounds of talks stalled in May 2023, several major issues remain unresolved. Key sticking points include Iran's insistence on enriching uranium on its own soil and its refusal to ship its entire stockpile of highly enriched uranium abroad.

The UN's nuclear watchdog has repeatedly asked Iran to account for its highly enriched uranium stock since the June attacks. While Western nations worry the material could be used for a warhead, Iran maintains its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes like electricity generation.

Iranian sources suggest Tehran might be willing to ship its highly enriched uranium abroad and pause enrichment as part of a deal that also includes the lifting of economic sanctions.

President Donald Trump has announced he would welcome investment from China and India in Venezuela's crucial oil industry, signaling a new phase in the country's energy politics.

"China is welcome to come in and will make a great deal on oil," Trump told reporters. He also confirmed that the United States is actively working with India on a plan for it to purchase Venezuelan crude.

"India's coming in and they're going to be buying Venezuelan oil, as opposed to buying it from Iran," he stated, adding, "We've already made the deal, the concept of that deal."

A New Era for Venezuelan Oil Policy

This shift follows historic changes to Venezuela's nationalist oil policy approved by the country's acting president. The reforms, designed to attract foreign capital, include reduced taxes and greater ownership stakes for international oil companies.

These changes were implemented less than a month after U.S. forces captured former leader Nicolas Maduro. In a related move, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a general license that expands the ability of American companies to export, sell, and refine crude oil from the sanctioned South American nation.

The United States is now on track to import the most Venezuelan oil in a year as the Trump administration works to control the country's energy supply. Part of this strategy involves pressing oil companies to invest $100 billion to rebuild Venezuela's deteriorating oil infrastructure.

Tracking the Shift in Crude Shipments

While the U.S. is becoming the primary destination for Venezuelan oil, shipments to China have collapsed. After averaging 400,000 barrels a day last year, exports to China dropped to zero in January. This halt is the direct result of a U.S. naval crackdown on the "dark fleet" of tankers used to transport sanctioned oil.

The majority of Venezuelan crude now arriving in the U.S. is handled by Chevron Corp., which operates under a specific license to sell the sanctioned oil. Commodity trading giants Trafigura Group and Vitol Group account for about 20% of the supply.

The Trump administration tapped these two firms to help sell up to 50 million barrels of oil following Maduro's ouster in early January. According to Bloomberg data, Vitol and Trafigura are currently on course to lift 14 million barrels of Venezuelan crude. Much of this oil was loaded onto ships originally bound for China before January. The traders have since placed about 9 million barrels in Caribbean storage, with the remainder heading to markets in the U.S. and Europe.