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The Dow was up as much as 700 points in Thursday's session, as Nvidia earnings lifted the market, only to whipsaw in the other direction and end the day down 300 points.

The $7 trillion market for securities linked to US inflation will employ fallback mechanisms for the first time after the longest government shutdown in history derailed economic data collection.
The nation's Bureau of Labor Statistics said it was cancelling its October consumer price index report, saying it was unable to retroactively collect some data. The inflation-protected segment of the US Treasury bond market and US inflation derivatives both use the CPI to determine how much investors get paid.
The lack of official data will trigger contingency plans written into legal documentation decades ago, with the added wrinkle that the bond and derivatives markets use different fallbacks.
The he cancellation was widely anticipated. White House officials Oct. 24 said October inflation data probably wouldn't be released, and the BLS said Wednesday that the October unemployment rate wouldn't be calculated because of the Oct. 1 to Nov. 12 shutdown.
"Even before the announcement, it was general consensus that the fallback would be activated for October, so the market had largely already priced this in," said Jon Hill, head of US inflation strategy at Barclays Capital Inc.
While past shutdowns delayed publication of economic data, until now the BLS hasn't failed to produce a major report.
The lack of data is a headache for investors in general at a time when US inflation — despite having receded from the generational highs reached in 2022 amid pandemic-related supply-chain disruptions — continues to exceed the Federal Reserve's 2% target. As a result, several Fed policymakers are opposed to lowering interest rates further after two cuts this year in response to signs of job-market stress.
That's increased the power of inflation data to move markets, and some Fed officials have said the lack of data is a justification for pausing rate cuts at their next meeting scheduled for Dec. 9-10.
The BLS said it will publish November CPI data on Dec. 18, meaning the latest official inflation data available to the rate-setting committee will be from September.
The BLS typically gathers pricing information from roughly 80,000 items across the country, mostly in-person. While the agency recalled staff to prepare the September CPI report — which was needed for US Social Security to calculate its annual cost-of-living adjustment — October data weren't collected.
The agency said it can acquire most of the non-survey data for October and "where possible" will publish such values in the November release.
For Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, monthly CPI values are used to interpolate daily index ratios that determine — with a time lag — accrued interest, which is due to the seller of a bond by its buyer. The October CPI would be used to interpolate values for Dec. 2 to Jan. 1, 2026.
In the absence of a published CPI value, regulations for TIPS call for a synthetic number "based on the last available twelve-month change in the CPI," in this case from September 2024 to September 2025.
Inflation derivatives use a different fallback, creating a divergence between TIPS, a $2 trillion market, and swaps.
Standard inflation swap contracts — with a notional value outstanding of about $4.5 trillion at LCH, the clearinghouse unit of London Stock Exchange Group — employ International Swaps and Derivatives Association rules. If the derivative is not linked to a specific bond, ISDA's fallback calculation applies the September 2025 year-on-year change to the October 2024 level.
The difference in methodology leads to diverging payouts. For October, the TIPS fallback would produce an index reading of 325.604, while the swaps fallback would be 325.174, according to Bloomberg calculations.
TIPS maturing in January 2026 greatly outperformed inflation swaps in recent weeks, "reflecting the market pricing in a meaningful probability of the fallback being activated," Barclays' Hill said.
Earlier this month, ISDA issued guidance on how the swap fallbacks would be triggered "in the interest of mitigating market risk and the promotion of orderly valuation and settlement of positions by market participants."
The U.S. Labor Department will not release the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) due to a government shutdown, rescheduling the November report for December 18, 2025, as stated by Jin10 data.
This delay affects market volatility, influencing cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH, as U.S. CPI figures guide interest rate expectations and monetary policies.
The U.S. Labor Department cites the government shutdown as the reason behind the absence of the October CPI report. BLS leadership faces capacity challenges due to vacant positions, and essential staff are affected by ongoing hiring freezes. The immediate impact on financial markets is notable, given the relevance of CPI data to interest rate expectations and monetary policy decisions. Analysts anticipate a significant reaction in the prices of key cryptocurrencies, particularly those sensitive to U.S. economic indicators.
To date, no government officials have publicly commented on this specific report cancellation. However, the lack of critical economic data prompts discussions in financial sectors about its wider implications.
"The BLS calendar contains publication dates for most news releases scheduled to be issued by the BLS national office in upcoming months. ... The calendar is updated as needed with additional news releases, usually at least a week before their scheduled publication date." — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Official Entity, BLS
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