Haiti on the Brink: Gangs, Politics, and a Nation in Chaos

Politics in Haiti has become a lethal game. The country's last elected president, Jovenel Moïse, was assassinated by mercenaries in 2021, plunging the nation into a spiral of extreme gang violence. Since then, thousands have been killed or abducted as criminals seized control of roughly 90% of the capital, Port-au-Prince, bringing legitimate economic activity to a standstill.

Now, a new crisis looms as the country faces the prospect of having no government at all. The Transitional Presidential Council (TPC), established to steer the nation, was scheduled to dissolve on February 7, but vicious infighting has erupted over who will hold power next. This internal conflict not only threatens Haiti's future but also the fate of a planned United Nations security mission.

A Transitional Council in Turmoil

The TPC was formed in April 2024 out of negotiations led by the Caribbean Community (Caricom) after gangs physically prevented then-interim president Ariel Henri from returning to Haiti. With the parliament already dissolved in 2020, the council was meant to provide stability until new elections could be held. The original goal was to hold a vote in late 2025 and seat a new government by February 8, 2026.

That plan has completely unraveled. The TPC has been paralyzed by political maneuvering and efforts by its members to protect armed allies and secure resources. Its first prime minister, Gary Conille, was forced to resign after just six months.

More recently, several council members attempted a palace coup to oust Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé while proposing a new, smaller council that would conveniently include them. The threat of council members mobilizing gangs to intimidate rivals and the international community is palpable.

The United States has responded by parking a warship and three coast guard cutters off the Haitian coast. It also imposed visa restrictions on five TPC members. In late January, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated he had spoken with Fils-Aimé, emphasizing "the importance of his continued tenure" to fight "terrorist gangs and stabilize the island." Rubio added that the TPC "must be dissolved by February 7 without corrupt actors."

Gang Violence Strangles Elections and the Economy

The council’s failure to establish basic security has had devastating consequences. According to UN Secretary General António Guterres, 8,100 people were killed between January and November 2025 alone in the nation of 11 million—a 20% increase from 2024. Sexual violence has also surged.

This chaos has made holding credible elections impossible. The prevailing view is that any attempt to organize a vote would allow gangs to formally take over the government, whether through coercion, campaign support, or by running their own candidates. With the interim government's own future uncertain after February 8, even an updated plan for elections in late 2026 appears highly unrealistic.

The economic toll has been staggering. The World Bank estimates that by 2024, the crisis was costing Haiti nearly $10 billion a year in lost economic activity, with small and medium-sized enterprises hit particularly hard.

UN Mission at Risk Without a Stable Partner

The political vacuum directly jeopardizes a critical UN mission designed to deploy an 11,000-strong multinational Gang Suppression Force (GSF). The force's objective is to crack down on gang leaders and retake control of vital infrastructure like transportation hubs. However, such a mission cannot succeed without an effective and credible government partner in Haiti.

Even if a new governing authority is hastily assembled, it is unlikely to have broad support. For decades, a recurring pattern in Haiti has seen corrupt political and business figures who are shut out of power use their gang contacts to create chaos. This "street veto" effectively cripples any new government before it can begin its most urgent task: reforming Haiti's security and judicial systems.

A viable long-term solution requires more than just military action. It demands a complete overhaul of Haiti's police, military, and intelligence services, alongside a fair and efficient court system to deliver justice and accountability for the brutal crimes committed daily.

A Global Funding Crisis Looms

Compounding Haiti’s internal problems is a sharp decline in global development funding. With the US Agency for Development (USAID) abolished by the Donald Trump administration and subsequent aid cuts by the UK, Canada, and the EU, critical resources are drying up.

This funding shortfall could prove fatal. Programs essential for long-term stability—such as disarmament, demobilization, and reintegrating former gang members into society—will likely have scant resources. Without projects to rebuild communities and generate jobs, there is no legal alternative to a life of crime, and many will simply return to violence.

With traditional aid shrinking, new approaches are needed. This could include direct country donations to the UN trust fund for Haiti, closer collaboration between private philanthropies and development banks, and better leveraging of remittances from the Haitian diaspora. But these initiatives require coordination, likely through a major donors' conference for Haiti—an event no one has yet offered to host.