Haiti on the Brink: Gangs, Politics, and a Nation in Chaos

James Riley

Political

Remarks of Officials

Economic

Summary:

Haiti's political vacuum deepens amid spiraling gang violence, jeopardizing a UN mission as critical global aid vanishes.

Politics in Haiti has become a lethal game. The country's last elected president, Jovenel Moïse, was assassinated by mercenaries in 2021, plunging the nation into a spiral of extreme gang violence. Since then, thousands have been killed or abducted as criminals seized control of roughly 90% of the capital, Port-au-Prince, bringing legitimate economic activity to a standstill.

Now, a new crisis looms as the country faces the prospect of having no government at all. The Transitional Presidential Council (TPC), established to steer the nation, was scheduled to dissolve on February 7, but vicious infighting has erupted over who will hold power next. This internal conflict not only threatens Haiti's future but also the fate of a planned United Nations security mission.

A Transitional Council in Turmoil

The TPC was formed in April 2024 out of negotiations led by the Caribbean Community (Caricom) after gangs physically prevented then-interim president Ariel Henri from returning to Haiti. With the parliament already dissolved in 2020, the council was meant to provide stability until new elections could be held. The original goal was to hold a vote in late 2025 and seat a new government by February 8, 2026.

That plan has completely unraveled. The TPC has been paralyzed by political maneuvering and efforts by its members to protect armed allies and secure resources. Its first prime minister, Gary Conille, was forced to resign after just six months.

More recently, several council members attempted a palace coup to oust Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé while proposing a new, smaller council that would conveniently include them. The threat of council members mobilizing gangs to intimidate rivals and the international community is palpable.

The United States has responded by parking a warship and three coast guard cutters off the Haitian coast. It also imposed visa restrictions on five TPC members. In late January, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated he had spoken with Fils-Aimé, emphasizing "the importance of his continued tenure" to fight "terrorist gangs and stabilize the island." Rubio added that the TPC "must be dissolved by February 7 without corrupt actors."

Gang Violence Strangles Elections and the Economy

The council’s failure to establish basic security has had devastating consequences. According to UN Secretary General António Guterres, 8,100 people were killed between January and November 2025 alone in the nation of 11 million—a 20% increase from 2024. Sexual violence has also surged.

This chaos has made holding credible elections impossible. The prevailing view is that any attempt to organize a vote would allow gangs to formally take over the government, whether through coercion, campaign support, or by running their own candidates. With the interim government's own future uncertain after February 8, even an updated plan for elections in late 2026 appears highly unrealistic.

The economic toll has been staggering. The World Bank estimates that by 2024, the crisis was costing Haiti nearly $10 billion a year in lost economic activity, with small and medium-sized enterprises hit particularly hard.

UN Mission at Risk Without a Stable Partner

The political vacuum directly jeopardizes a critical UN mission designed to deploy an 11,000-strong multinational Gang Suppression Force (GSF). The force's objective is to crack down on gang leaders and retake control of vital infrastructure like transportation hubs. However, such a mission cannot succeed without an effective and credible government partner in Haiti.

Even if a new governing authority is hastily assembled, it is unlikely to have broad support. For decades, a recurring pattern in Haiti has seen corrupt political and business figures who are shut out of power use their gang contacts to create chaos. This "street veto" effectively cripples any new government before it can begin its most urgent task: reforming Haiti's security and judicial systems.

A viable long-term solution requires more than just military action. It demands a complete overhaul of Haiti's police, military, and intelligence services, alongside a fair and efficient court system to deliver justice and accountability for the brutal crimes committed daily.

A Global Funding Crisis Looms

Compounding Haiti’s internal problems is a sharp decline in global development funding. With the US Agency for Development (USAID) abolished by the Donald Trump administration and subsequent aid cuts by the UK, Canada, and the EU, critical resources are drying up.

This funding shortfall could prove fatal. Programs essential for long-term stability—such as disarmament, demobilization, and reintegrating former gang members into society—will likely have scant resources. Without projects to rebuild communities and generate jobs, there is no legal alternative to a life of crime, and many will simply return to violence.

With traditional aid shrinking, new approaches are needed. This could include direct country donations to the UN trust fund for Haiti, closer collaboration between private philanthropies and development banks, and better leveraging of remittances from the Haitian diaspora. But these initiatives require coordination, likely through a major donors' conference for Haiti—an event no one has yet offered to host.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Cryptocurrency

XRP falls out of bed

Since the beginning of 2026, XRP has grappled with intensified volatility, culminating in a sharp sell-off that has underscored the token’s sensitivity to macroeconomic pressures, leveraged positioning and evolving investor sentiment.

While XRP’s longer-term narrative - driven by adoption in cross-border payments and ongoing institutional interest - remains a touchstone for many holders, recent price action has been dominated by short-term dynamics that have amplified downside risk.

In the early weeks of the year, XRP had shown signs of tentative resilience. Following a recovery from late-2025 lows, the token had traded in a choppy but relatively stable range, bolstered by optimism around potential spot XRP exchange-traded products (ETPs) and signs of regulatory clarity in certain jurisdictions. These narratives helped underpin sentiment and encouraged longer-term investors to hold through bouts of market stress. However, this stability masked underlying vulnerabilities that emerged as broader financial conditions shifted.

The catalyst for the recent sell-off was rooted in a renewed risk-off rotation across cryptocurrencies. XRP, with its high-beta characteristics relative to established assets like Bitcoin, experienced disproportionate pressure as traders reduced leveraged positions and sought safer havens or liquid collateral.

Leverage dynamics played a significant role in intensifying the decline. In the weeks leading up to the downturn, derivatives data indicated that speculative long exposure in XRP had rebuilt as market participants positioned for continued momentum.

When prices failed to extend higher and instead breached key technical support levels, stop-loss orders were triggered and liquidations accelerated. The forced unwinding of leveraged longs drove selling pressure beyond what spot market orders alone would have produced, creating a feedback loop that pushed XRP sharply lower.

Institutional flows also reflected the shift in sentiment. Early 2026 had seen pauses in both inflows and outflows from XRP-linked investment products, suggesting selective allocation rather than broad conviction.

During the current sell-off, the absence of aggressive institutional dip-buying - particularly from larger asset managers - left XRP vulnerable to sustained downside pressure. In contrast to other asset classes where institutional players have sometimes acted as stabilising forces, capital flows in and out of XRP structures appeared cautious and tactical, reinforcing volatility rather than dampening it.

Sentiment specific to the XRP ecosystem contributed to the sharp move. While discussions about regulatory clarity and ETP access continue, tangible progress has been incremental rather than transformational. In the absence of clear, immediate catalysts for adoption or product launches, traders focused more heavily on macro indicators and short-term technical levels. This dynamic contributed to a lack of conviction at key price supports, making it easier for stop-losses to cascade and deepen the sell-off.

Looking ahead, XRP’s direction will likely hinge on whether broader market conditions continue to improve and whether institutional and retail confidence can rebuild without renewed liquidation pressure.

For now, the current sharp sell-off serves as a reminder that even assets with strong structural narratives remain vulnerable to shifts in sentiment, leverage unwinds and tactical positioning.

XRP bearish case:

While XRP remains below its late January low at $1.5082 on a daily chart closing basis, immediate downside pressure should remain dominant with the $1.4168 - $1.3495 support zone being eyed. It consists of the September-to-November 2021 highs and the 2025 trough.

Failure there may push the May 2021 low at $1.1008 to the fore.

XRP bullish case:

There currently is none! Only if XRP were to see a bullish reversal which would take the cryptocurrency above its $1.5082 late January low on a daily chart closing basis, could the early February high at $1.6778 be back on the map.

Short-term outlook:

Bearish while below the 31 January high at $1.5082, targeting the $1.4168 - $1.3495 region.

Medium-term outlook:

Bearish, targeting the $1.4168 - $1.3495 support area while below $1.5082.

XRP daily candlestick chart

Source: ig

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

USD:

The US Dollar continues to rebound after the strong selloff experienced in the last couple of weeks of January. The greenback remains supported by improving US data and strong PMIs potentially hinting to stronger economic activity going forward. If the data continues to come out strong, traders will have to pare back their dovish Fed bets, and that’s going to boost the US Dollar further.

Next week is going to be a big one. In fact, we will get the US NFP report on Wednesday and the US CPI on Friday. The trend for the dollar is looking increasingly bullish, but traders will still look for confirmation from the data to gain more conviction.

JPY:

On the JPY side, nothing has changed. The BoJ held interest rates steady as expected at the last policy meeting and upgraded slightly growth and inflation forecasts due to the expansionary fiscal policies.

Governor Ueda didn’t offer anything new in terms of forward guidance as he just repeated that they will keep raising rates if the economic outlook is realised. He also added that April price behaviour will be a factor to mull over a rate hike. This suggests that April is when they expect to deliver another rate hike if the data supports such a move.

The Japanese Yen rallied just on the back of the “rate check” talks and intervention risks. This is now in the rear-view mirror and traders are piling back into shorts as the US Dollar strengthens on better data and expected Takaichi’s victory in the lower house elections this weekend.

USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

USDJPY - daily

On the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY continues to rally towards the 159.00 handle where we got the strong verbal intervention and the talks of “rate checks” that eventually triggered a huge and quick selloff in the pair. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the highs to position for a drop into the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new cycle highs.

USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

USDJPY - 4 hour

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price broke above the last week’s gap and continued higher as the buyers increased the bullish bets into the 159.00 handle. There’s not much else we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.

USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

USDJPY - 1 hour

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to pile in for a pullback into the 155.50 support. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Source: investinglive

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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King Ten

Political

Remarks of Officials

Forex

Economic

U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren is urging Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to terminate a $20 billion currency swap line established with Argentina last year. As the leading Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, Warren argues the financial backstop was a temporary measure that has now served its purpose.

In a letter sent Wednesday, Warren reminded Bessent that the Treasury had framed the agreement as a tool for "acute, short-term and urgent" economic needs. The original goal was to provide a bridge for Argentine President Javier Milei's government through critical October elections while it pursued economic reforms.

A Short-Term Fix or an Open-Ended Agreement?

Warren’s main concern is that the swap facility remains active, creating the possibility of continued use well beyond its initial scope.

"Despite Treasury's assertion that its use of the (Exchange Stabilization Fund) was for an 'acute, short-term and urgent' purpose, it appears—by leaving the (exchange stabilization arrangement) in place—to have left open the possibility of continued use of the ESF in Argentina well after the October 2025 elections," Warren wrote.

She contends that keeping the arrangement open contradicts the Treasury's original assurances to Congress.

How the Currency Swap Propped Up Argentina's Economy

The Treasury Department signed the currency swap agreement with Argentina just before a key midterm election, as concerns mounted over the country's economic stability.

The facility provided Argentina's central bank with crucial funds to support the value of the peso and stave off a potential devaluation ahead of the vote. The funds were deployed in October for two primary purposes:

• Repaying debt to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

• Replenishing foreign currency reserves used to defend the peso's exchange rate.

The election ultimately saw President Javier Milei, a close ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, succeed in expanding his influence within the country's legislatures.

Treasury Faces Questions Over Swap Facility's Status

Warren noted that Secretary Bessent had previously told the committee that Argentina had already repaid its limited draw on the facility in full. She also mentioned that the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) no longer holds any Argentine pesos.

However, there has been no official confirmation that the swap line itself is closed. Warren has requested written confirmation of its termination by February 12.

Bessent is scheduled to testify before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. Officials from Argentina's foreign and economy ministries did not provide an immediate response when asked for comment.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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King Ten

Traders' Opinions

Remarks of Officials

Central Bank

Economic

Federal Reserve officials are holding firm on interest rates, signaling that the fight against inflation isn't over yet. Despite significant progress since the historic price spikes of 2022, inflation remains stubbornly above the central bank's 2% target, creating a cautious atmosphere around future policy decisions.

Here's what you need to know:

• Rate Cuts on Pause: The Fed chose not to lower interest rates at its last meeting, prioritizing the battle against inflation which has lingered above 2% since 2021.

• Post-Pandemic Shadow: The unexpected inflation surge that began in 2021 continues to heavily influence the Fed's strategy, prompting a more measured approach.

• Inflation vs. Jobs: Officials are weighing the dual risks of persistent inflation against a cooling job market, leading to different opinions on the right time to ease policy.

The Fed's Persistent Inflation Problem

The aftershocks of the post-pandemic economy are still a primary concern for the Federal Reserve. While the Consumer Price Index has cooled considerably to a 2.7% annual increase in December—a sharp drop from its 9% peak in 2022—it has not yet returned to the Fed’s 2% goal.

This persistent inflation prompted the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to keep its key interest rate steady last month. The decision followed three consecutive quarter-point cuts designed to support the job market, but officials have indicated that inflation worries prevented another reduction.

The federal funds rate is a critical tool for the central bank, influencing borrowing costs across the economy. The FOMC raises rates to curb inflation and lowers them to stimulate economic activity and employment.

A Split View on the Path Forward

Inside the Fed, a debate is unfolding over which risk is greater: inflation staying too high or the job market weakening too much.

Thomas Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, emphasized the need for vigilance. "While we've made a lot of progress on inflation, it still remains above our target," Barkin said in a speech Tuesday. "That's been the case since 2021." He cautioned against blaming one-off factors like tariffs or lags in housing cost data, stating, "I take this sustained miss seriously."

Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Fed, shared this cautious sentiment. "My concern for the past three or four years has been that inflation is too high," he told CNBC last week. "We've made good progress, but for the last two years or so we've been kind of stuck... I would say that we should be waiting and be more patient."

However, not all officials agree. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman expressed confidence that inflation would reach the 2% target soon and suggested the central bank should cut its key rate three times in the next year.

"I recognize and appreciate that other FOMC members may be concerned that inflation remains somewhat elevated," Bowman said. "However, absent a clear and sustained improvement in labor market conditions, we should be ready to adjust policy to bring it closer to neutral." She also noted she would not "immediately" react to a high January inflation report, as the data can be skewed by seasonal adjustments.

Lessons From the 2020 Miscalculation

The Fed's current caution is sharpened by recent history. Newly released transcripts from FOMC meetings in early 2020, made public after a five-year delay, reveal that officials were caught completely off guard by the inflationary wave that followed the pandemic.

In an emergency meeting on March 15, 2020, policymakers viewed mass unemployment and disinflation—falling prices—as the primary economic threats. They slashed interest rates to nearly zero, with then-Governor Richard Clarida stating, "The net effect of the virus is likely to be disinflationary, not inflationary." San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly added at the time, "Even when the pandemic abates, inflation is going to be an ongoing concern."

This misjudgment is a fresh memory for the seven current FOMC members who were present in 2020, including Barkin.

"Inflation spiked, helping us remember a painful lesson from the '70s—just how much we all hate inflation," Barkin said this week. "It feels unfair, it creates uncertainty, and frankly it's just exhausting."

Given this history, the market widely expects the FOMC to hold rates steady through its next two meetings. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 66% probability of the first rate cut occurring in June.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Economic

We are slowly entering the second phase of Thursday's trading session.

The markets are still awaiting the BoE and ECB decisions on interest rates. The first will take place in less than 14 minutes, at 13:00. The ECB will decide at 14:15.

The European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged for the fifth time, as the strong economy has so far withstood global tensions and the strong euro. The Bank of England is also expected to keep interest rates unchanged, despite growing concerns about the British labour market.

At present, Germany's DAX is down 0.46% on the cash market, France's CAC40 is up 0.2%, and the UK's FTSE100 is down 0.45%.

Precious metals return to dramatic declines: silver slumps 11% to $78, completely erasing the rebound of the last two sessions, gold retreats another 1.7% to $4,875, platinum contracts lose 6.5%.

The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell by 0.16%, with the technology and media sectors performing best and automotive stocks performing worst.

Market Wrap: Pound loses ground ahead of BoE decision; SILVER and GOLD return to declines_1

Rheinmetall AG recorded a decline of 6.9% after analysts' forecasts led to a downward revision of the consensus earnings forecast for this year.

A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S fell 3.8% after the Danish container giant announced it would focus on cost discipline in the face of deteriorating freight rates caused by the reopening of the Red Sea.

KGHM Polska Miedź SA fell by 4.9%, leading declines in shares of companies in the basic materials sector.

Meanwhile, the decline in silver prices provided a boost for Pandora A/S, whose shares rose 6.3%, offsetting a break in share buybacks following a forecast of slower sales this year.

Shell Plc fell 2.3 per cent after its profit missed expectations.

The Swiss franc and the US dollar are performing best on the Forex market. We are seeing declines, particularly in the British pound.

We are seeing significant declines in cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has fallen below £70,000 for the first time since November 2024.

Source: xtb

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Ukadike Micheal

Political

Remarks of Officials

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russian and Ukrainian officials are engaged in a second day of U.S.-brokered negotiations aimed at ending the war, but major disagreements over Ukrainian territory and future security guarantees remain significant obstacles.

The talks, held in Abu Dhabi, have produced one small sign of progress: an agreement for another prisoner-of-war exchange. Steve Witkoff, the White House envoy leading the U.S. mediation effort, announced on February 5 that a total of 314 prisoners would be released. This move offers a rare moment of consensus in a conflict that has reportedly killed or wounded nearly 2 million people since Russia’s invasion on February 24, 2022.

Cautious Optimism Meets Sobering Reality

Ahead of the meetings, both sides hinted at the possibility of a breakthrough. Kirill Dmitriev, the Kremlin's lead negotiator, mentioned "progress" and positive movement on February 5. His Ukrainian counterpart, Rustem Umerov, described the first day of discussions as "meaningful and productive, focusing on concrete steps and practical solutions."

Despite these optimistic statements, Russia’s military actions continue unabated. On the eve of the talks, Russia launched one of its largest aerial assaults of the war, targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure and compounding the suffering of civilians in the middle of a harsh winter.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reinforced Moscow's firm stance, telling reporters that Russia's position remains unchanged and is "absolutely clear and well understood by both Kyiv and the American negotiators."

The Core Sticking Points

The gap between Moscow and Kyiv has narrowed slightly, but fundamental disagreements persist. The negotiations are centered on two critical issues that have stalled previous efforts.

The Status of Donbas

The primary point of contention is the territory in Ukraine's Donbas region that Kyiv currently controls but Moscow claims as its own. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has proposed creating a demilitarized zone, potentially monitored by European peacekeepers, but Russia has unequivocally rejected this proposal.

Future Security Guarantees

Kyiv is also demanding binding security guarantees from the United States and other Western allies. These guarantees would legally obligate other nations to intervene if Russia were to launch another attack in the future.

Ukrainian political analyst Ihor Reiterovych has urged the West to provide strong assurances and avoid repeating the mistakes of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. That agreement, signed by the U.S., Russia, and Britain, was supposed to guarantee Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for the country giving up its nuclear arsenal.

Expert Skepticism and the Path Forward

Analysts remain skeptical about the prospects for a comprehensive settlement. Markus Ziener, a fellow with the German Marshall Fund and former Moscow correspondent, acknowledged the prisoner swap as a positive step but expressed doubts about a broader resolution.

"I'm rather skeptical if we get to the nitty-gritty," he told RFE/RL, adding, "So far, there is not really much that gives us hope that a settlement of the war is within reach."

Ziener questioned Russia's sincerity, noting the incongruity of negotiating for peace while simultaneously launching massive aerial attacks. "If I want to negotiate a peace settlement, I would not hammer Ukraine and pound them the way they do," he observed.

For Ukraine, the immense sacrifices made during the war make concessions difficult. "Given all the sacrifices Ukraine has made so far... it's very difficult for Ukraine to say, OK, well, we'll cede to the Russian demands," Ziener explained.

The talks, which include current and former intelligence officials, mark a continuation of direct negotiations that resumed last May after a long pause. President Donald Trump has expressed frustration that the war continues, having made its resolution a top foreign policy priority. The U.S. delegation includes not only Witkoff, who has met with Russian President Vladimir Putin seven times in the past year, but also Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

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