Goldman Sachs sees gold prices surpassing $4,000 if investors ramp up buying

Commodity

Summary:

Goldman Sachs projects gold at \$3,700 by end-2025 and \$4,000 by mid-2026, with potential up to \$4,500–\$5,000 if private investors shift from U.S. assets, citing Fed risks and safe-haven demand.

Goldman Sachs said gold prices could surge well above its $4,000 per troy ounce baseline by mid-2026, should private investors diversify more heavily into the metal.

Spot gold prices hit a record high of $3,578.50 per ounce on Wednesday on expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut later this month, while lingering global uncertainties kept safe-haven demand firmly in play. [GOL/]

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"Gold remains our highest-conviction long recommendation," Goldman Sachs said in a note dated Wednesday.

It forecasts gold prices at $3,700 by the end of 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026, assuming strong central bank buying. However, this baseline view does not factor in a major shift by private investors out of U.S. dollar assets into gold, a scenario that could push prices to as high as $4,500 per ounce.

It also said that a loss of Fed independence could trigger higher inflation, a rise in long-end bond yields, weaker equities, and a decline in the dollar’s reserve currency status — while gold, as a store of value not reliant on institutional trust - stood to benefit. [MKTS/GLOB] [US/]

U.S. President Donald Trump has intensified efforts to exert control over the Fed, whose ability to manage inflation effectively is widely seen as requiring freedom from political influence over interest rate decisions.

Goldman Sachs also estimated that, assuming all else remains constant, gold prices could approach $5,000 per troy ounce if 1% of the private money invested in the U.S. Treasury market was reallocated to gold.

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Cryptocurrency

Legal Experts Talk Ripple Case:

XRP and the SEC vs. Ripple case were in the spotlight as the dust settled from the US Court of Appeals ruling. On August 22, the US Court of Appeals approved the parties’ Joint Stipulation of Dismissal, resolving a four-and-a-half-year legal battle.

The approval was pivotal, given that the SEC dropped its appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling. In 2023, Judge Torres ruled that programmatic sales of XRP did not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test.

Amicus curiae attorney and CryptoLaw founder John E. Deaton played an instrumental role in the ruling, representing over 70,000 XRP holders. On Wednesday, September 3, Deaton commented on the XRP Army’s influence in the Ripple case, stating:

“No credible person can argue that the XRP Army didn’t make a difference in the Ripple case. If they do, they’re either ignorant to the facts and truth or intentionally lying. We have conclusive evidence that we made a difference. There were over 2K exhibits filed in the case.”

Referencing Judge Torres’ final ruling, Deaton added:

“In her final decision, Judge Torres cited only a couple dozen exhibits. The Judge cited my amicus brief, XRP Holder Affidavits, and the oral argument hearing I had in the LBRY.com case on behalf of Naomi Brockwell, related to secondary sales. She had ruled XRP itself is Not a security while citing XRP Holder Affidavits.”

Deaton stated that Judge Torres’ citations removed any debate on whether the XRP Army influenced the case, concluding:

“Often, people say one person can’t make a difference. I say: one person can inspire many people and together, they can make a difference.”

The Programmatic Sales ruling was crucial, enabling ETF issuers to apply for XRP-spot ETFs.

XRP-Spot ETFs and the Road to Main Street

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) released a joint crypto statement this week, underscoring their support for innovation while ensuring consumer protections.

NovaDius Wealth Management President Nate Geraci reacted to the joint statement, stating:

“Main takeaway? Crypto trading going mainstream. Will be on the world’s largest venues. Think NYSE, Nasdaq, etc. Next stop after that? Every major traditional brokerage. I know you’re paying attention now.”

Main Street could potentially fuel crypto adoption, giving traditional asset-class investors access to XRP and other cryptos.

Furthermore, the joint statement may be the prelude to the highly anticipated standardized crypto ETF framework, which could greenlight pending XRP-spot ETF applications.

Market experts expect XRP-spot ETFs to be a crucial price catalyst.

XRP Price Outlook: Scenarios for Bulls and Bears

Can XRP retake the $3 handle as final deadlines for XRP-spot ETF reviews near? XRP fell 0.53% on Wednesday, September 3, partially reversing Tuesday’s 3.72% rally to close at $2.8474. The token underperformed the broader market, which rose 0.78% to a total crypto market cap of $3.81 trillion.

In the near-term, XRP’s price outlook hinges on several key catalysts, including:

XRP-spot ETF headlines.

Blue-chip firm adoption of XRP as a Treasury Reserve Asset.

Ripple’s US-chartered bank license application.

SWIFT-related updates.

Market Structure Bill’s progress on Capitol Hill.

Potential scenarios:

Bearish Scenario: Legislative roadblocks, weak blue-chip company demand, OCC declines Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, lawmakers protect SWIFT, or the SEC disapproves XRP-spot ETFs. These factors may push XRP toward $2.5.

Bullish Scenario: XRP-spot ETF approvals, OCC approves US-chartered bank license, rising demand for XRP as a Treasury Reserve Asset, bipartisan support for the CLARITY Act, or SWIFT loses share of global remittance business to Ripple. These factors could send XRP above its record high of $3.6606 (Binance).

While October remains a pivotal month for XRP, crypto legislation, global macroeconomic developments, and Bitcoin price trends will continue to affect price trends. Bitcoin remains the crypto market barometer, dictating broader crypto market trends.

XRP News Today: Spot ETF Framework Could Unlock Mainstreet Access; BTC at $111k_1

XRPUSD – Daily Chart – 040925

Explore our full XRP forecast here for key breakout zones and timing insights.

Bitcoin and MicroStrategy Take Center Stage

While XRP dipped as investors await spot ETF approvals, Strategy (MSTR) gave Bitcoin (BTC) a much-needed boost.

On Tuesday, September 2, Strategy founder and chairman Michael Saylor announced the latest BTC acquisition, stating:

“Strategy has acquired 4,048 BTC for ~$449.3 million at ~$110,981 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 25.7% YTD 2025. As of 9/1/2025, we hodl 636,505 BTC acquired for ~$46.95 billion at ~$73,765 per bitcoin.”

Strategy sits at the top of the Bitcoin 100 list (Companies with the largest BTC holdings). The purchase coincided with speculation about Strategy potentially entering the S&P 500 on Friday, September 5, in the Index’s quarterly rebalance. Strategy’s listing could mean Main Street investors gain exposure to BTC by default through Index-linked products.

Institutional demand remains crucial for BTC’s price trajectory, spotlighting demand for spot ETFs.

US BTC-Spot ETF Flows Boost Sentiment

Meanwhile, the US BTC-spot ETF market reported total net inflows of $332.8 million on Tuesday, September 2, lifting sentiment. Excluding BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) flows, total inflows reached $10.7 million on Wednesday, September 3. According to Farside Investors, key flows included:

Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) reported net inflows of $28.8 million.

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net inflows of $9.8 million.

Meanwhile, ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw net outflows of $27.9 million.

A reversal of August’s outflows of $749.2 million could send BTC toward its record high of $123,731.

While a second day of inflows could raise demand for BTC, investors may tread cautiously ahead of crucial US economic data.

US Economic Indicators and the Fed in Focus

On Thursday, September 4, the US ISM Services PMI, the ADP employment report, and the weekly jobless claims require consideration. A sharp rise in the Services PMI and solid labor market data may temper Fed rate cut bets, weighing on BTC. On the other hand, softer numbers could fuel speculation about multiple Fed rate cuts, driving demand for risk assets.

BTC Price Outlook: US Data, the Fed, and Spot ETFs in Focus

BTC rose 0.51% on Wednesday, September 3, following Tuesday’s 1.76% gain, closing at $111,758. Despite extending its winning streak to three sessions, BTC fell short of the crucial $115,000 level for an eleventh consecutive session.

However, looking ahead, several key events may influence the near-term price outlook. These include:

Fed speakers: hawkish or dovish.

US services and labor market data: Weaker or stronger?

Legislative developments on Capitol Hill: The CLARITY Act – yes or no.

BTC-spot ETF flows.

Potential scenarios:

Bearish Scenario: Legislative roadblocks, strong US data, hawkish Fed cues, or ETF outflows. A combination of these may push BTC toward the psychological $100,000 support level.

Bullish Scenario: Bipartisan support for the CLARITY Act, weaker US data, dovish Fed rhetoric, and ETF inflows. In this case, BTC could target the record high of $123,731.

Key Market Drivers: Data, Regulation, and ETF Flows

Traders should pay close attention to the following key events to determine whether XRP and BTC rebound:

XRP-spot ETF developments.

Legislative developments: The CLARITY Act.

US economic data: Supports rate cuts or lowers expectations of a Fed pivot.

ETF market flows: Flow trends crucial for BTC’s supply-demand balance.

See where analysts expect XRP and BTC to head in the coming months as regulatory and economic risks evolve.

Source: fxempire

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Daniel Carter

Economic

Political

President Donald Trump is seeking a swift and definitive decision on tariffs from the Supreme Court that he helped shape, saying the country would be on "the brink of economic catastrophe" without the import taxes he has imposed on U.S. rivals and allies alike.

The administration used near-apocalyptic terms that are highly unusual in Supreme Court filings as it asked the justices late Wednesday to intervene and reverse an appeals court ruling that found most of Trump's tariffs are an illegal use of an emergency powers law. The tariffs remain in place, for now.

The tariffs and their erratic rollout have shaken global markets, alienated U.S. trading partners and allies, and raised fears of higher prices and slower economic growth.

But the Republican president has also used the trade penalties to pressure the European Union, Japan and others into accepting new deals. Revenue from tariffs totaled $159 billion by late August, more than double what it was at the same point a year earlier.

Raising the stakes even higher, Solicitor General D. John Sauer urged the Supreme Court to decide in a week's time whether to hear the case and hold arguments the first week of November. That is far faster than the pace of the typical Supreme Court case.

"The President and his Cabinet officials have determined that the tariffs are promoting peace and unprecedented economic prosperity, and that the denial of tariff authority would expose our nation to trade retaliation without effective defenses and thrust America back to the brink of economic catastrophe," Sauer wrote.

He wrote that it is not just trade that is at issue, but also the nation's ability to reduce the flow of fentanyl and efforts to end Russia's war against Ukraine.

The tariffs will almost certainly remain in effect until a final ruling from the Supreme Court. But the Republican administration nevertheless called on the high court to intervene quickly.

"That decision casts a pall of uncertainty upon ongoing foreign negotiations that the President has been pursuing through tariffs over the past five months, jeopardizing both already negotiated framework deals and ongoing negotiations," Sauer wrote. "The stakes in this case could not be higher."

The filing cites not only Donald Trump but also the secretaries of the departments of Treasury, Commerce and State in support of the urgent need for the justices to step in.

The stakes are also high for small businesses battered by tariffs and uncertainty, said Jeffrey Schwab, senior counsel and director of litigation at the Liberty Justice Center.

Source: Yahoo Finance

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

U.S. services sector activity picked up in August, but employment remained subdued as labor market conditions ease.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Thursday its nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) increased to 52.0 last month from 50.1 in July. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI rising to 51.0.

A PMI reading above 50 indicates growth in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy.

Economists have blamed President Donald Trump's punitive tariffs for eroding a once-resilient labor market.

The import duties, which have boosted the nation's average tariff rate to a level not seen since 1934, have stoked fears of inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to pause its interest rate cutting cycle.

The ISM's measure of services employment was little changed at 46.5 in August, making the third straight month of contraction. Though this measure and the ISM's manufacturing employment gauge have not been good predictors of nonfarm payrolls in the government's closely watched employment report, they aligned with other labor market indicators that have suggested a considerable loss of momentum.

The government reported on Wednesday that there were more unemployed people than open positions in July for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic.

A Reuters survey of economists expects the employment report on Friday will likely show nonfarm payrolls increased by 75,000 jobs in August after rising by 73,000 in July.

Employment gains averaged 35,000 jobs per month over the last three months compared to 123,000 during the same period in 2024, the government reported in August. The unemployment rate is forecast to climb to 4.3% from 4.2% in July.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell last month signaled a possible rate cut at the U.S. central bank's September 16-17 policy meeting, acknowledging the rising labor market risks, but also added that inflation remained a threat. The Fed has kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range since December.

The ISM survey's new orders measure rose to 56.0 last month from 50.3 in July. With demand picking up, inflation remained elevated. Its measure of prices paid dipped to 69.2 from 69.9 in July, which was the highest level since October 2022. Services inflation has warmed up in recent months, raising concerns that a broad increase in inflation was imminent.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Bond

There is a sense of calm in European and US markets. The recovery in global bond yields on Wednesday has helped sentiment, the gold price is lower by $30 on Thursday and US and European stocks are pointing to a mildly higher open for European and US stocks later today, and a continuation of Wednesday’s rally.

Bond market recovery

There are signs that the bond market rout could be over. Global government bond sales have been strong this week and have not been impacted by bond market volatility. Added to this, some governments including the UK’s are talking once more about public sector spending cuts, which may boost demand for Gilts in the short term.

Risks are still looming for the bond market, for example, Monday’s confidence vote in the French government. If the government collapses, then French bonds will be in the spotlight. Ahead today, there is a massive $11bn auction of French government debt. We will be watching this closely to gauge demand and to see if political turmoil impacts demand.

NFP looms large for markets

As we move through the week, the focus is on the US labour market. The dollar is stronger across the board on Thursday morning, even though Wednesday’s JOLTS jobs data pointed to a softening jobs market with fewer job openings and an increase in the layoff rate for July. This helped to calm the US Treasury market. The Fed’s Beige Book also painted a weak picture of the US economy, which helped to put downward pressure on US yields, and push the 30-year US Treasury yield move away from the key 5% level.

The market is still convinced that there will be a Fed rate cut later this month, there is now a 97% chance of a rate cut on September 17th. There is an 80% chance of a cut in December and a 53% chance of an October cut. Tomorrow’s NFP report will be crucial for interest rate expectations. If we get a reading above 100k, currently the market expects a reading of 75k, then we could see yields climb and rate cut expectations get pared back. Thus, today we could see little movement in yields as we wait for tomorrow’s key data.

UK yields fall, but risks remain

UK bonds were the top performer in Europe on Wednesday, and yields reversed Tuesday’s gains. The Gilt market brushed off some hawkish comments from BOE governor Andrew Bailey who sounded concerned about inflation and talked down the prospect of a rate cut in November. There is only an 18% chance of a cut in November, a month ago there was a 67% chance of a cut. Thus, UK yields may be able to reverse recent gains, but we still expect UK yields to remain higher than our peers’ yields for some time.

There is also talk that the UK’s neutral rate could be closer to 4%, which is historically high. This is not helping the pound, as the main driver of sterling is the UK’s fiscal outlook. With uncertainty likely as we lead up to the Budget in November, we believe that GBP/USD peaked in July at $1.38, and GBP may trade sideways below $1.35 in the short term.

Beijing puts the breaks on Chinese stocks

The contrast between US stocks and Chinese stocks is stark today. The CSI 300 is down 2%, after news that Chinese regulators were looking at measures to cool the stock market after a blistering rally since August. Chinese officials want steadier returns and to promote ‘long term value’ not just short-term gains for speculators. The CSI 300 has risen by more than 7% in the past month, and there have ben big gains for Chinese tech firms, including Cambricon, the AI chip marker, which is higher by 75% in 4-weeks.

There was concern that Nvidia would not be able to capitalize on sales to China due to political risks, which fueled investor demand for Chinese tech stocks in recent weeks. Now that the Chinese government is trying to actively limit speculation and short-term gains, this could trigger some rotation out of Chinese stocks and that money is most likely going to end up in the US tech sector.

Google and Apple boost the Nasdaq

The Nasdaq was higher by more than 1% on Wednesday, after the index was boosted by large gains for Apple and Google. The search engine giant rose by more than 9%, after a US court ruling let Google keep its Chrome browser, which means that the company will avoid major antitrust fines. Apple’s shares were also higher by more than 3% after it announced that it would launch AI powered web search for its Siri tool next year.

The enthusiasm for US tech stocks contrasted sharply with Chinese stocks, and Cambricon saw its share price tank 12% earlier today. This highlights how the Chinese stock market was propped up by tech enthusiasm rather than economic fundamentals, which leaves Chinese tech stocks vulnerable to further downside. We would expect the Golden Dragon index in the Nasdaq, which includes US-listed Chinese tech firms, to also lose some of its shine later today, and we could see investors rotate back to the ‘safety’ of US stocks now that the government is getting directly involved to limit upside in Chinese share prices.

Source: xtb

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Thomas

Economic

The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits increased more than expected last week, while hiring by private employers slowed in August, offering further evidence that labor market conditions were softening.

The reports on Thursday came on the heels of government data on Wednesday showing there were more unemployed people than positions available in July for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. Job growth has shifted into stall-speed, with economists blaming President Donald Trump's sweeping import tariffs and an immigration crackdown that is hampering hiring at construction sites and restaurants.

The slackening labor market likely positions the Federal Reserve to resume cutting interest rates later this month, though much would depend on August's employment report that is scheduled to be published on Friday.

"We continue to see softness growing in the labor market as tariff policy uncertainty lingers, immigration changes take effect, and AI adoption grows," said Eric Teal, chief investment officer at Comerica Wealth Management. "The silver-lining is the weaker the jobs data, the more cover there is for stimulative interest rate cuts that are on the horizon."

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 237,000 for the week ended August 30, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 230,000 claims for the latest week. There were significant increases in unadjusted claims in Connecticut and Tennessee.

A column chart titled "US unemployment claims" that tracks the metric over a recent period.

The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid slipped 4,000 to 1.940 million during the week ending August 23, the claims report showed.

The still-high so-called continued claims are a reflection of a reluctance by businesses to increase headcount. The Fed's "Beige Book" report on Wednesday noted that "firms were hesitant to hire workers because of weaker demand or uncertainty."

U.S. stocks opened mixed. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields fell.

The claims data have no bearing on the closely watched employment report for August scheduled to be released on Friday as they fall outside the survey period.

Economists are bracing for another month of tepid job growth. Those expectations were reinforced by the ADP National Employment Report showing private employment increased by 54,000 jobs last month after advancing 106,000 in July. Economists had forecast private employment increasing by 65,000 jobs.

A Reuters survey of economists expects the employment report will likely show nonfarm payrolls increased by 75,000 jobs in August after rising by 73,000 in July.

The Fed has kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range since December.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Winkelmann

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Forex

U.S. Bank is reigniting momentum in digital finance with a bold return to bitcoin custody, integrating ETF support and unlocking powerful institutional pathways into cryptocurrency adoption.US Bank Resumes Bitcoin Custody Services, Signaling Broader Institutional Shift

Institutional investors are increasingly seeking regulated access to digital assets as banks adapt their offerings to meet demand. U.S. Bank announced on Sept. 3 that it has resumed cryptocurrency custody services, initially introduced in 2021, through an early access program for Global Fund Services clients. The bank explained:The services are intended for institutional investment managers with registered or private funds who seek a secure safekeeping solution for bitcoin.

The updated platform also includes support for bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with NYDIG, a bitcoin financial services and infrastructure firm, selected as sub-custodian.Executives positioned the relaunch as both a continuation of earlier work and a response to evolving regulation. Stephen Philipson, vice chair of U.S. Bank Wealth, Corporate, Commercial and Institutional Banking, stated: “We’re proud that we were one of the first banks to offer cryptocurrency custody for fund and institutional custody clients back in 2021, and we’re excited to resume the service this year. Following greater regulatory clarity, we’ve expanded our offering to include bitcoin ETFs, which allows us to provide full-service solutions for managers seeking custody and administration services.”

From NYDIG’s side, CEO Tejas Shah commented: “NYDIG is honored to partner with U.S. Bank as its primary provider for bitcoin custody services. Together, we can bridge the gap between traditional finance and the modern economy by facilitating access for Global Fund Services clients to bitcoin as sound money, delivered with the safety and security expected by regulated financial institutions.”

Broader strategic ambitions were also highlighted. Dominic Venturo, senior executive vice president and chief digital officer at U.S. Bank, remarked: “U.S. Bank has been at the forefront of exploring how digital assets can serve our clients. Further expanding our capabilities unlocks new opportunities to deliver innovative solutions to those we serve. U.S. Bank will continue to drive progress and shape the future of what matters for our clients in digital finance.” With $11.7 trillion in assets under custody and administration as of June 30, 2025, the bank’s return to bitcoin custody signals growing institutional readiness to engage with cryptocurrencies. While critics highlight risks from market volatility and custodial complexity, advocates contend that regulated partnerships improve security and broaden access for institutional investors seeking exposure to the asset class.