Gold (XAUUSD) Failed To Renew Its All-time High

Forex

Commodity

Summary:

The price of XAUUSD declined toward the 4,300 USD area during a downward correction after an unsuccessful attempt to renew the all-time high, following the release of US inflation data.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

· Market focus: US inflation slowed to 2.7% in November, significantly below the forecast of 3.1%

· Current trend: range-bound trading

· XAUUSD forecast for 19 December 2025: 4,300 or 4,381

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) has returned to a consolidation range of 4,260–4,350 USD per ounce, remaining close to record highs. An attempt to renew the all-time high at 4,381 USD after weaker-than-expected US inflation data proved unsuccessful.

US inflation slowed to 2.7% in November, below the 3.1% forecast, while core CPI came in at 2.6% — the lowest reading since March 2021. This has strengthened expectations of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026.

Geopolitical tensions continue to support the precious metal. Confrontation between the US and Venezuela persists, military action in Ukraine continues, and there has been no clear progress in peace negotiations so far.

XAUUSD technical analysis

XAUUSD quotes corrected toward the 4,300 USD area. The daily trend, confirmed by the Alligator indicator, remains upward, indicating the possibility of a continuation of the bullish move once the current correction is complete.

Within the short-term price forecast for XAUUSD, if bulls manage to regain control, another attempt to break the all-time high at 4,381 USD may follow. If bears succeed in extending the decline and secure prices below 4,300 USD, a deeper correction toward support at 4,260 USD may develop.

Summary

Gold is undergoing a moderate correction after failing to renew the all-time high at 4,381 USD. Slowing US inflation and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to support the precious metal. Once the correction phase is complete, the upward movement may resume.

EURUSD 2026-2027 forecast: key market trends and future predictions

This article provides the EURUSD forecast for 2026 and 2027 and highlights the main factors determining the direction of the pair's movements. We will apply technical analysis, take into account the opinions of leading experts, large banks, and financial institutions, and study AI-based forecasts. This comprehensive insight into EURUSD predictions should help investors and traders make informed decisions.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

Dive deep into the Gold (XAUUSD) price outlook for 2026 and beyond, combining technical analysis, expert forecasts, and key macroeconomic factors. It explains the drivers behind gold's recent surge, explores potential scenarios including a move toward 4,500 to 5,000 USD per ounce, and highlights why the metal remains a strong hedge during global uncertainty.

Source: RoboForex

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Westpac

Forex

Economic

Key insights from the week that was.

Australia's key release for the week was the Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment Index which, after November's 'net positive' read, fell 9% to 94.5 in December – a 'cautiously pessimistic' level. Responses to questions on news recall suggest consumers were shaken by recent inflation results, the tone of related coverage now viewed as decisively negative versus somewhat mixed three months ago. This has sparked one of the sharpest turnarounds in consumers' mortgage rate expectations on record, 86% of those with a view now anticipate mortgage rates to be the same or higher in a year's time.

This has fed into renewed concerns over the economy, the one-year and five-year ahead sub-indexes falling 9.7% and 11.7% respectively. Buyer sentiment also looks to have been crimped, the 'time to buy a major household item' sub-index shedding 11.4% to be well below average. Official data is pointing to a genuine consumer upswing, driven by a recovery in real household disposable incomes; however, higher inflation, interest rates and bracket creep threaten the outturn. As a result, the year-ahead outlook for family finances fell 6.1% to be modestly below average.

The RBA has also taken signal from the recent lift in inflation, with only some of the pressures deemed temporary. As detailed by Chief Economist Luci Ellis earlier this week, Westpac continues to believe inflation will moderate through 2026, but the Monetary Policy Board's more hawkish assessment has pushed back the timing of further policy easing into 2027. There are risks to both sides of our view for policy to remain on hold in 2026 and two cuts in H1 2027. If inflation continues surprising meaningfully to the upside in the near term, a rate hike could become a possibility. But, if the labour market weakens more than expected, the cuts now forecast for 2027 may need to be brought forward.

Fiscal policy developments are also worth monitoring vis a vis inflation and growth. The Federal Government's MYEFO revealed an $8.7bn improvement in the budget's bottom line over the forward estimates due to a tax windfall associated with higher commodity prices and a firmer-than-expected economic upswing. If the government elects to save the bulk of the windfall, it would ease near-term inflationary pressures – at the margin.

Before moving offshore, a final note on the local manufacturing sector. The latest Westpac-ACCI Survey of Industrial Trends revealed that the long-awaited improvement in conditions is finally starting to materialise, the Actual Composite bouncing from a broadly neutral read to a solid 55.1 in Q4. The Expected Composite meanwhile continued to lift to fresh cycle highs. Some of the hallmark challenges facing the sector, such as elevated costs, skilled labour shortages and material constraints, has restricted the ability for some manufacturers to respond to firmer demand. Solid investment intentions and plans for hiring, if realised, should go some way to alleviating capacity constraints.

Over in the UK, the Bank of England cut rates by 25bps to 3.75% in a narrow 5-4 vote. Those voting for a cut emphasised the downside risks to growth; those for a pause that inflation, which came in at 3.2%yr earlier in the week, could show greater persistence. On the outlook, Governor Bailey noted that "judgements around further policy easing will become a closer call" suggesting that the BoE is nearing the end of its easing cycle. With GDP growth expected to be only slightly above 1% in 2026 and inflation trending down, we maintain a view of further gradual BoE easing in H1 2026, by 25bp per quarter. However, the committee may proceed more cautiously, delaying cuts to the second half of next year.

Across the English Channel, the European Central Bank kept rates steady at 2.0% with President Lagarde noting once again that "policy is in a good place". Inflation was revised up for 2026 due to a slower descent in services inflation (core inflation now 2.2%yr), but it is still expected to stabilise at target in 2027/2028 (1.9% and 2.0%). The economic growth projections have also been revised up to 1.4% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, where growth is expected to remain in 2028. The statement made clear the "Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path", highlighting that policy will be fine-tuned depending on how the risks evolve.

In the US, November's inflation read surprised to the downside, the core measure rising 2.6%yr while headline prices rose 2.7%yr, both down from 3.0%yr in September. However, with the government shutdown precluding an October report and essentially no month-to-month detail provided for November, the FOMC is unlikely to take signal from this inflation read. Earlier in the week, non-farm payrolls rose 64k in November after a 105k decline in October, both released at the same time. Average job gains over the last 3 months are circa 20k, towards the bottom of the range estimated to be consistent with balance between labour demand and supply. It is unsurprising then that the unemployment rate edged up 0.2ppts between September and November to 4.6%.

In Asia meanwhile, Chinese partial data came in softer than expected in November. Retail trade was up just 4%ytd, weighed down by persistent weakness in consumer prices, but more significantly weak sentiment and declining wealth. Equities are now trending higher, but house prices continue to decline. Industrial production grew 6%ytd, however, highlighting that the capacity investment of recent years is earning a return. Fixed asset investment fell 2.6%ytd though, as high-tech manufacturing retraced some of its rapid gains of prior years, and property construction continued to contract. Clearly, pro-active stimulus in scale is necessary to put a floor under activity and, in time, see sentiment move back up.

Further east, the Q4 Tankan survey showed conditions improved by two points to 17pts, supporting views for a rate hike later today by the Bank of Japan. The output prices measure remained broadly steady, with one-year, three-year and five-year ahead projections all consistent with at-target inflation. Investment plans remain high, albeit with a slight downgrade from last quarter's expectations. Software investment is anticipated to increase 12.2%, while R&D investment is expected to rise 4.6%. All this is consistent with reports of firms investing to reduce their demand for labour and in pursuit of productivity. Employment conditions remained consistent with a tight labour market; firms expect to hire more new graduates in the following financial year. Overall, the survey points to a tight labour and historically elevated inflation expectations, which should aid workers case for higher wages in FY26 (ending in March 2027).

Source: Westpac Banking Corporation

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Winkelmann

Forex

Economic

Malaysia's trade surplus contracted sharply in November as imports grew faster than exports, according to data released by the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM) on Friday.

During the month under review, the trade surplus declined by 58.8% to RM6.1 billion, compared with RM14.8 billion in the corresponding period a year ago, the DOSM said in a statement.

Imports surged 15.8% year-on-year to RM128.9 billion, a growth rate more than double that of exports, which increased 7% to RM135 billion in November.

Chief statistician Datuk Seri Dr Mohd Uzir Mahidin said the rise in exports in November was supported by higher re-exports and domestic exports.

Re-exports accounted for 22% of total exports and increased 40.3% year-on-year to RM29.8 billion, while domestic exports, which made up 78%, recorded marginal growth of 0.3% to RM105.2 billion.

In terms of products, export growth in November was led by higher shipments of electrical and electronics products, optical and scientific equipment, metalliferous ores and metal scrap, palm oil-based manufactured products, manufactured metal products, and machinery, equipment and parts.

By destination, higher exports were mainly driven by increased shipments to Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, the European Union, Mexico, Singapore and Vietnam, the DOSM said.

Imports-wise, Malaysia saw higher inflows from China, Costa Rica, South Korea, the United Arab Emirates, Taiwan, Oman and the European Union.

Mohd Uzir said the rise in imports reflected higher demand for capital and intermediate goods, with capital goods imports jumping 56.8% year-on-year to RM20.8 billion and intermediate goods imports rising 5% to RM66.4 billion. The imports of consumption goods, however, fell 1.7% to RM9.9 billion.

Compared with October 2025, exports declined 9% while imports rose marginally by 0.7%. Total trade decreased by 4.5%, and the trade surplus fell 70% respectively from October levels.

For the January-November period, Malaysia's total trade expanded 5.8% year-on-year to RM2.8 trillion, supported by a 6.1% increase in exports and a 5.6% rise in imports. The cumulative trade surplus strengthened 10.7% to RM132.6 billion.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Gerik

Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

EU Approves Multi-Year Aid Amid Strategic and Legal Dilemmas

The European Union has finalized an ambitious €90 billion aid package for Ukraine to be disbursed across 2026 and 2027, as confirmed by EU Council President Antonio Costa. This move reinforces the bloc’s continued commitment to Ukraine’s fiscal and strategic stability, as the war with Russia nears its fourth year.

The decision followed months of internal debate among EU members about whether to utilize €210 billion in frozen Russian assets primarily held in Belgium as a funding source. While Ukraine had pushed for those funds to be directed toward reparations and economic support, the final agreement opted for a more cautious approach. EU member states cited unresolved legal risks and potential international litigation, especially under international asset protection frameworks, as the primary reasons for not tapping into those frozen reserves.

Joint Borrowing Model to Finance Ukraine’s Resilience

Rather than diverting Russian state assets, the EU will raise funds through joint borrowing mechanisms supported by its own budget guarantees. This model, similar to the EU’s pandemic-era recovery fund, allows for unified fiscal backing without requiring unanimous national budget approvals for each disbursement.

Costa emphasized that Ukraine will only be obligated to repay these loans once Russia pays war reparations, a provision designed to lessen the financial burden on Kyiv while sending a political message to Moscow. This arrangement allows the EU to maintain pressure on Russia while continuing to fund Ukraine’s budget, reconstruction, and institutional reform needs.

In parallel, the EU confirmed that the aid will operate under the Ukraine Facility and other support instruments already in place. These have so far delivered €6 billion in bridge financing and €18.1 billion in loans this year via a G7-led initiative.

Legal, Diplomatic, and Strategic Calculations

The decision to avoid using Russian assets reflects both legal prudence and diplomatic balancing. Belgium, as the primary custodian of the frozen funds, demanded strong legal protections before agreeing to such a move. Prime Minister Bart De Wever stated that without guarantees, his government risked exposing the EU to costly legal battles and unintended geopolitical consequences.

From a broader strategic standpoint, the aid package underscores the EU’s attempt to play a more proactive role in shaping peace negotiations. It complements recent diplomatic efforts, including a U.S.-led proposal discussed in Geneva, which reportedly includes controversial provisions such as freezing current battle lines and limiting Ukraine’s future NATO path measures Kyiv has not fully endorsed.

The EU's financial backstop provides Ukraine with leverage in these negotiations, ensuring its fiscal survival and deterring unilateral concessions under economic pressure. Since the beginning of the conflict in 2022, total EU aid to Ukraine has now surpassed €187 billion, signaling Europe’s intention to remain a central stakeholder in postwar stabilization efforts.

A Signal of Enduring European Unity

The EU’s $105 billion aid commitment through 2027 sends a strong message of continuity and strategic solidarity with Ukraine. By avoiding contentious use of Russian assets and choosing a model grounded in legal stability, the bloc reinforces both its internal cohesion and international credibility.

At the same time, the decision reflects a shift from symbolic gestures to long-term institutional support, setting the financial groundwork for Ukraine’s future even as the path to peace remains fraught with diplomatic and military uncertainty. The EU’s readiness to tie repayments to Russian reparations aligns the bloc’s fiscal policy with its broader geopolitical aims, aiming to hold Moscow accountable while ensuring Ukraine’s resilience remains uncompromised.

Source: CNBC

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ING

Forex

Economic

Asia Week Ahead: Key Data From South Korea, Japan, And Taiwan_1

South Korea: Exports expected to grow while inflation slows

Strong external demand and the recent US trade deal are expected to sustain the momentum in manufacturing output and exports. Industrial production is likely to recover in November, as both semiconductors and automotives show significant improvement. Last month's decline in semiconductor output appears to be temporary, and inventory restocking is expected to drive higher chip production. After the US-Korea trade agreement, motor vehicle exports rose in November. This should positively impact overall IP. We expect December exports to rise by 9% year on year, as these two industries continue to improve. Meanwhile, retail sales growth should moderate as the effect of previous cash handouts gradually wanes. Still, events such as the November Sales Festa and an increase in foreign tourists are expected to support continued growth in retail sales.

Also, inflation is expected to decelerate in December despite the recent weakness in the KRW. Fresh food prices stabilized during the winter season while gasoline prices peaked in early December. We expect headline inflation to ease to 2.2% YoY in December from the previous month's 2.4%.

Japan: Industrial production seen declining, while retail sales rise

Industrial production in Japan is projected to decline. This should only partially offset the gains of the past two months. Meanwhile, retail sales continue to climb, supported by robust wage growth. We believe that November data won't yet show significant negative effects from the decrease in Chinese tourists.

China: Loan Prime Rates expected to remain unchanged

With the last key data releases done for the year, Saturday's Loan Prime Rates decision will dominate next week's economic discussions. We expect this to be a non-event, with 1 and 5 year LPRs held unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively.

Taiwan: Export orders to remain robust, while IP slows slightly

We are looking for export orders to continue their solid run in November, rising to 30.3% YoY. This gain in the data, out Tuesday, will be driven by continued strength in electronic products and information and communication products. We expect industrial production data for November, out Wednesday, to slow slightly to a growth rate of 11.8% YoY.

Key events in Asia next week

Asia Week Ahead: Key Data From South Korea, Japan, And Taiwan_2

Source: ING

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Gerik

Economic

Washington Begins Licensing Review for Nvidia H200 Shipments

The U.S. government has begun reviewing potential export licenses that could allow Nvidia’s H200 chips its second-most advanced artificial intelligence processors to be sold to Chinese buyers, according to five sources familiar with the matter. This marks the first significant step in President Trump’s plan to reframe AI chip policy with China, diverging sharply from the previous administration’s embargo on advanced AI semiconductor exports.

The Commerce Department has submitted Nvidia’s applications to the State, Energy, and Defense Departments for review. These agencies are granted 30 days to provide input under standard export control procedures. While inter-agency feedback is required, the final decision ultimately rests with President Trump, who has publicly backed the idea of permitting sales in exchange for a 25% fee on each chip transaction.

Strategic Goals vs National Security Concerns

The Trump administration’s rationale for permitting H200 exports is rooted in a strategic economic argument: allowing limited access to U.S.-made chips would reduce demand for Chinese alternatives and discourage rapid technological development by domestic Chinese players such as Huawei. The goal is to maintain American dominance in the global AI stack by keeping U.S. products embedded in Chinese AI development, thereby slowing the rise of indigenous competitors.

However, this economic calculus is facing bipartisan opposition. Critics, including Chris McGuire former White House National Security Council official under President Biden argue that enabling China to access even slightly older AI chips risks narrowing the U.S.'s technological edge. McGuire warned that the H200 is still advanced enough to meaningfully accelerate China’s AI progress, calling the move “a significant strategic mistake.”

The H200 chip, though less powerful than Nvidia’s flagship Blackwell series, is widely used across the AI industry and has never previously been available for export to China. Its architecture enables high-performance training of AI models, which makes it a valuable asset for any country seeking to scale its domestic AI capability civilian or military.

Departure from Biden-Era Export Controls

This policy marks a dramatic reversal from the Biden administration’s approach, which had implemented sweeping restrictions on AI chip sales to China and third-party nations suspected of smuggling components. The Biden-era rules were designed to limit Beijing’s access to hardware that could be repurposed for military applications or surveillance infrastructure.

Under Trump’s current direction, national security appears to be subordinated to broader strategic industry goals. While still framed as a protective measure by keeping U.S. firms technologically ahead the move reflects a recalibration in how the White House balances commercial advantage with containment.

Adding further tension is the fact that Nvidia is reportedly preparing to ramp up production of the H200 following an unexpected surge in demand from Chinese buyers. This signals strong market appetite and raises concerns that even partial regulatory loosening could flood China with sufficient hardware to leapfrog AI development timelines.

Market Implications and Geopolitical Sensitivities

The review’s outcome will carry significant implications across sectors. For Nvidia, approval could unlock a massive revenue stream at a time when its dominance in AI chips is already being challenged by global supply constraints. For investors, the administration’s decision may recalibrate risk perceptions tied to tech exposure in China.

On a geopolitical level, the decision will also shape the tenor of U.S.-China tech relations moving into 2026. If the export licenses are approved, China could view the policy as a softening of Washington’s technology blockade. Conversely, any reversal or delay in approvals may further escalate tensions, particularly if Beijing perceives the review process as a political bargaining tool.

A Strategic Gamble with Long-Term Consequences

The Trump administration’s review of H200 AI chip exports signals a bold but controversial attempt to thread the needle between market influence and national security. While proponents see it as a way to stall China’s domestic semiconductor ambitions and protect U.S. technological supremacy, critics warn it could inadvertently erode the very edge it seeks to protect.

As the 30-day inter-agency window proceeds, all eyes will be on whether strategic trade-offs will be weighed more heavily than established security doctrines. In either case, the decision will likely set a precedent for future AI-related tech policy in the context of escalating global competition.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

Stocks

Wall Street Momentum Lifts Asian Sentiment

Equity markets across Asia rebounded on Friday, buoyed by a positive lead from Wall Street where strong earnings from Micron Technology fueled a tech rally. Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.6%, South Korea’s KOSPI rose 1.2%, and the MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) edged 0.2% higher, showing regional investors were willing to follow the global risk-on mood despite looming policy decisions.

The rally was sparked by U.S. inflation data showing a sharper-than-expected slowdown in consumer price growth to 2.7%. While this initially sparked dovish enthusiasm, analysts cautioned that the figures were skewed by missing data due to the recent U.S. government shutdown. Consequently, market participants have been reluctant to fully trust the report as a reliable guide for Federal Reserve policy.

BOJ Hike Expected but Forward Guidance Holds Greater Weight

Traders are almost certain the Bank of Japan will raise its short-term policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% later in the day, bringing it to the highest level since 1995. The key market focus, however, is not the hike itself which is nearly fully priced in but rather Governor Kazuo Ueda’s tone regarding future rate increases.

Expectations have coalesced around the possibility of just one more hike to 1.0% by 2026. Any suggestion that the BOJ might accelerate this timeline or raise rates beyond 1.0% could trigger a shift in bond and currency markets. On the flip side, a cautious or non-committal stance could pressure the yen further, keeping it vulnerable to depreciation.

Analysts at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia argued that Japan’s policy rate remains stimulatory and further normalization is warranted. Persistent core inflation, which remained at 3.0% in November for the second straight month, along with recent yen weakness, is expected to keep price pressures elevated.

Currency Markets Await Direction Amid Diverging Central Bank Paths

The Japanese yen was little changed at 155.60 to the dollar, remaining within its recent range between 154.34 and 156.96. Its trajectory now depends on whether the BOJ signals a steady tightening path or opts for a wait-and-see approach. A dovish tone could renew pressure on the currency, while a hawkish shift may help stabilize it.

Elsewhere in currency markets, the euro traded flat at $1.1725, after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde provided no forward guidance, effectively sidelining hawkish expectations. The ECB kept rates at 2.0% and gave no clear timeline for easing, implying policy is on hold for an extended period.

The British pound hovered around $1.3378 after the Bank of England cut its benchmark rate to 3.75% in a narrow 5–4 vote. Despite the cut, the divided decision has limited the scope for aggressive easing, as policymakers signaled caution on future rate reductions. Central banks in Sweden and Norway also kept rates steady, though Norway left the door open for potential cuts in 2026.

Bond Markets Steady as Inflation Data Remain Clouded

Bond yields were broadly stable following the U.S. CPI release. The 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.126%, below its recent high of 4.209%, while Japan’s 10-year government bond yield matched its 18-year peak at 1.980%. Although the CPI numbers hinted at easing inflation, markets remained cautious due to data collection issues during the U.S. shutdown.

Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations saw only minor changes, with the probability of a January cut implied at 27%, while March increased modestly to 58%. The limited movement suggests traders are waiting for cleaner economic data before reassessing the Fed’s next steps.

Commodities Show Mixed Momentum

Gold traded at $4,333 an ounce, slightly below its October peak of $4,381, as investors took profits amid cautious inflation signals. Silver pulled back after a recent surge, while palladium and platinum continued to find support from industrial demand.

Oil prices edged higher, supported by the potential for new U.S. sanctions on Russia and uncertainty surrounding Venezuelan oil exports. Brent crude rose 0.2% to $62.04 a barrel, while U.S. crude also gained 0.2% to $58.35.

Markets on Alert Ahead of BOJ Signals

While Asian equities enjoyed a short-term lift from Wall Street’s tech rally and cooling U.S. inflation, investors remain highly sensitive to central bank signals particularly from the Bank of Japan. With interest rates set to rise, the yen’s stability and the trajectory of Japan’s bond market hinge on Governor Ueda’s messaging.

The divergence in global monetary policies between the BOJ’s tightening, the ECB’s hawkish hold, and the BOE’s cautious cut has created a complex landscape for investors navigating currencies, equities, and commodities into the final weeks of 2025. The next round of central bank decisions will likely determine whether this rally finds solid footing or falters under the weight of economic uncertainty.