Gold Surges To Record High Amid Economic Concerns

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

Gold reached a new high of $3,674.27 per ounce in September, surpassing its inflation-adjusted peak from 1980, amidst concerns about U.S. economic stability and dollar weakness.

Key Points:

●Gold reaches inflation-adjusted peak, driven by economic concerns.

●Potential rise to $4,000-$5,000 per ounce forecasted.

●Increased central bank buying signals ongoing gold accumulation.

Gold reached a new high of $3,674.27 per ounce in September, surpassing its inflation-adjusted peak from 1980, amidst concerns about U.S. economic stability and dollar weakness.

The rise strengthens gold's role as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation, influencing investor behavior and potentially impacting related crypto assets like gold-backed tokens.

$3,674.27 Gold Price Hits Historic High, Global Reactions Follow

Gold has reached a historic high, with spot prices hitting $3,674.27 per ounce. Central banks, specifically the People’s Bank of China, have boosted holdings due to currency risks. The event emphasizes gold's safe-haven appeal amidst uncertainty in US economic outlook.

The increasing concerns about US economic stability have driven this surge, with anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts adding to the appeal of gold. The weakening dollar and rising demand for stability are key factors in this development.

"We remain deeply convinced of a continued structural bull case for gold and raise our price targets accordingly," - Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy, J.P. Morgan.

Market reaction has been significant, with analysts predicting further gains. Natasha Kaneva from J.P. Morgan highlights continued bullish prospects for gold. Despite no direct statements from major crypto influencers, the indirect effects are apparent as investors seek refuge in stable assets like gold.

Gold Takes Center Stage: Price Data, Historical Peaks, and Analysis

Did you know? In 1980, gold's previous inflation-adjusted peak was $3,590, making the current $3,674.27 an unprecedented high.

PAX Gold (PAXG) is currently priced at $3,635.71, with a market cap of around $1.05 billion as of September 11, 2025, reflecting a minor decrease of 0.26% over 24 hours per CoinMarketCap. Trading volumes have seen a 7.31% change, underscoring gold's bullish trend.

Source: CoinMarketCap

Coincu's research team notes that continued central bank accumulation and geopolitical uncertainty could further bolster gold prices. The potential implications for gold-backed tokens highlight a trend towards diversification and stability, emphasizing gold's role as an enduring store of value.

Source: CryptoSlate

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Devin

Economic

The International Monetary Fund on Thursday said the Federal Reserve has scope to lower interest rates because of the weakening U.S. labor market, but the central bank should move cautiously with a close eye on emerging economic data.

"Our overall sense is that, given the downside risks to full employment, there is scope for the Fed to begin to lower policy rates," IMF spokeswoman Julie Kozack said in a regular briefing."We also would say that the Fed should proceed cautiously, of course in a data-dependent way, in the coming months."

The Fed is expected to lower its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point at a policy meeting next week.

Source: Kitco

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Forex

The U.S. dollar has steadied since a record slide earlier this year, but many currency market players still view the greenback as locked in a bearish trend and are bracing themselves for further losses.

The dollar index fell about 11% in the six months through June in one of its steepest declines on record.

The greenback has steadied in recent weeks along with a sharp pullback in bearish futures bets. As of last week, speculators’ net short dollar position was at $5.7 billion, near the smallest since mid-April. That was down sharply from about $21 billion in late June, CFTC data show.

Many investors view this as a pause in the selling rather than a reversal. Worries include twin U.S. fiscal and trade deficits, chances that a slow job market may prompt more aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and the view that global fund managers may be in the process of rethinking their FX hedging practices as they look to reduce their exposure to the U.S. dollar.

"The dollar is in the process of declining, and there's more to go," Francesca Fornasari, head of currency solutions at Insight Investment said.

"It's messy and it's probably going to be pretty noisy," Fornasari said.

Many of the forces that drove the dollar’s slide remain in place. These include a rethink of U.S. exceptionalism, worries about economic growth due to U.S. President Donald Trump's protectionist trade stance, and persistent twin-deficit concerns.

Soft jobs data give the Fed scope to cut rates more aggressively. This would erode the yield advantage for the greenback.

"The markets are now starting to think about the degree to which the U.S. economy is going to weaken ...how weak will the labor market get going forward and what does that mean for Fed monetary policy," said Paresh Upadhyaya, director of fixed income and currency strategy at Amundi, the biggest European asset manager.

The Fed will likely resume cutting short-term rates next week and continue on for the rest of the year.

Upadhyaya, who started the year bearish on the greenback and has been adding to short dollar positions, sees little reason to change course now.

GLOBAL INVESTORS FACE HEDGING HEADACHE

Years of U.S. outperformance have left global investors heavily exposed to American assets. April’s tariff turbulence prompted some to trim positions and reassess hedges, but the repositioning is far from complete, investors said.

With foreign holdings of U.S. assets in the trillions, according to banks including Deutsche Bank, any paring of exposure could weigh on the dollar, a move that has yet to materialize in a big way, analysts said.

"The next big drop in the dollar could be if foreign investors decide they want to now start reducing their U.S. allocation," Amundi's Upadhyaya said.

The dollar's dismal first-half performance has already prompted a pick-up in hedging activity by asset managers. Slower-acting market participants could join the fray over the next three to six months, Insight Investment's Fornasari said.

Hedging flows typically involve selling dollars via forwards or swaps, adding supply that can pressure the greenback. Lower U.S. interest rates relative to overseas rates reduce the cost of popular hedging instruments and can make hedging more attractive.

"It is stating the obvious that additional Fed cuts from here would increase incentives to hedge dollar assets by foreign investors," George Saravelos, Global Head of FX Research at Deutsche Bank, said in a note on Monday.

Dollar bulls are unlikely to find support from the Trump administration, investors said, as the “America First” agenda and plans to revive U.S. manufacturing work against a stronger currency. The administration has occasionally said it is committed to protecting the strength and power of the U.S. dollar.

"They still believe in a strong dollar, king dollar, but a little bit weaker than the very elevated level (at the start of the year,)" Thanos Bardas, managing director and co-head of global investment-grade fixed income at Neuberger Berman, said.

"There is no way they can bring manufacturing back to the U.S. with the dollar index at 110," said Bardas, who expects the index to linger in the 95 to 100 range in the near term. On Wednesday the index was at 97.72.

"I don't think the U.S. wants to necessarily signal its desire for a weaker dollar, but it's not going to stand in the way of a weaker dollar," said Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist at Scotiabank. Osborne sees the dollar falling another 5% to 7% over the next year or so against major peers.

MANY SAY DOLLAR IS STILL OVERVALUED

There is still some chance that the dollar finds some support, given how much it has already fallen this year and the extent of Fed easing already priced in by the market.

One risk to the weaker-dollar view is an unexpected brightening in the U.S. economic growth outlook, Neuberger Berman’s Bardas said.

The economy expanded faster than first estimated in the second quarter, helped by business investment in intellectual property such as artificial intelligence, though import tariffs kept the outlook cloudy.

Still, the dollar remains expensive relative to many currencies, investors said, discouraging potential buyers in FX markets, known for prolonged periods where currencies overshoot in both directions.

"We're just barely getting to what I would consider neutral levels for the dollar," Amundi's Upadhyaya said, noting that the dollar is far from undervalued.

"We have more of the dollar bear market still to come."

Source: Reuters

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Economic

Reports that U.S. President Donald Trump asked the European Union to slap tariffs of up to 100% on China and India for their Russian oil purchases has raised eyebrows on both sides of the Atlantic, with Europe seen as unlikely to acquiesce to the White House’s request.

Trump made the proposal — first reported by the Financial Times and confirmed to CNBC by two sources familiar with the matter — when he was called into a meeting with senior U.S. and EU officials in Washington on Tuesday. The U.S. was also prepared to “mirror” any tariffs imposed by Europe on the two countries, the FT’s report added. The White House has yet to respond to CNBC’s request for comments.

Asked to comment on Trump’s bid, a European Commission spokesperson told CNBC Wednesday it could not disclose meeting details due to confidentiality, noting, “The EU has engaged with all relevant global partners, including India and China, in the context of its sanctions enforcement efforts. This engagement will continue.”

The commission pointed to its 19th measures package its preparing against Moscow, saying it had “added new sanctions tools which allow us to target circumvention through third countries” and that the U.S. was a “crucially important partner” in Brussels’ efforts to pile pressure on Russia’s war economy.

Timing

Asking the EU to impose tariffs on key Russian energy clients India and China was seen as another way to punish their trade with Moscow and put pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine.

Yet European officials appear wary of alienating China and India, and the timing of Trump’s request has raised eyebrows because it Washington is negotiating a trade deal with New Delhi.

The U.S. has already imposed a 50% tariff on India, which includes a 25% punitive duty it for its Russian oil purchases. India says the tariffs are “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable,” while calling out the U.S. and the EU’s trade with Russia.

Ian Bremmer, founder of Eurasia Group, told CNBC Wednesday that the White House’s latest demand on the EU was “hard to square with Trump’s efforts to get to a trade deal with India and China, which he prioritizes over getting a ceasefire in Ukraine (let alone things like Transatlantic collective security and deterrence),” Bremmer said in emailed comments to CNBC.

“It looks more like an attempt to shift responsibility for a stronger response to Europe, creating political cover for American inaction on the sanctions front while avoiding a direct hit to U.S.-China relations.”

‘Europe should say no’

The EU is unlikely to acquiesce, analysts say. Not only would the bloc be wary of adopting Trump’s contentious tariffs strategy and burning its own bridges with India and China — despite an economic rivalry with the Asian superpowers — but the EU has its own complicated trading relationship with Russia.

“Everyone knows if the Europeans haven’t been able to wean themselves off Russian energy themselves more than 3.5 years into the war, they sure as hell aren’t going to cut themselves off from their top goods import supplier,” Eurasia Group’s Bremmer stated.

Other analysts noted that Europe, unlike Trump, has an aversion to imposing tariffs as part of a trade playbook, arguing that the bloc shouldn’t be drawn into his trade wars.

“No one in Europe believes tariffs are an effective trade policy tool ... Europe would prefer diplomacy to address issues, rather than outright trade war,” Bill Blain, market strategist and founder of London-based Wind Shift Capital, said in his Morning Porridge newsletter on Wednesday.

“Europe’s response should be ‘no.’ Trump kicked the hornets nest – let him deal with the consequences. But let’s see what happens,” Blain concluded.

Russia connection

The EU has a complicated trading relationship with Russia. This is likely to prevent the bloc from punishing other nations for doing business with Moscow, when the EU does so too — albeit at a far lower level than before the Ukraine war began in 2022.

The EU’s bilateral trade with its neighbor stood at 67.5 billion euros ($78.1 billion) in 2024, according to European Commission data, with the EU’s imports were worth 35.9 billion euros and dominated by fuel and mining products. EU exports to Russia totaled 31.5 billion euros in 2024.

The EU has struggled to wean itself off Russian gas and LNG (liquefied natural gas) imports completely. Russia’s share of EU imports of pipeline gas dropped from over 40% in 2021 to about 11.6% in 2024, while Moscow accounted for less than 19% of total EU pipeline gas and LNG imports in 2024, the commission’s data notes.

The U.S. has encouraged its European allies to switch to U.S. LNG.

Trump said the EU had pledged, as part of its framework trade deal with the U.S. — which saw 15% tariffs imposed on the bloc’s exports to the States — to purchase U.S. LNG, oil and nuclear energy products with an expected offtake valued at $750 billion over the next three years.

U.S. Secretary of Interior Doug Burgum told CNBC Wednesday that the Trump administration is looking to drive up the U.S.′ market share of the energy sector in Europe.

″[Exporting] LNG would be one of the easiest things, [you can] put it on a ship, send it over here. Displace Russian gas, drive their market share to zero in Europe and drive U.S. market share up. That’s great for America, great for our allies, and we stop funding Russia’s side of the war,” he told CNBC at Gastech 2025.

Source: cnbc

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Economic

Inflation is back under control, and the European economy is weathering Trump's tariff onslaught better than expected. Those are reasons the European Central Bank is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged Thursday.

Instead, attention will focus on what bank President Christine Lagarde will have to say about France's fiscal crisis — and any possible role for the ECB in containing potential market turmoil that could erupt from the country's out-of-control deficit and political logjam.

The ECB is standing pat on interest rates even as the US Federal Reserve has held the door open for a possible cut at its Sept. 17 meeting.

The 20 countries that use the euro currency — and where the ECB sets rate policy — showed 0.1% growth in the second quarter over the quarter before, not great but not sliding into outright recession either despite the disruption from U.S. President Donald Trump's new and higher tariffs. The S&P Global survey of purchasing managers, a key indicator of economic activity, came in at 51.1 in August, with readings over 50 indicating expansion.

The EU's executive commission calmed the mood somewhat by negotiating a 1 5% ceiling on US tariffs, or import taxes, on European goods brought into the US. While that's far higher than pre-Trump tariff levels, Trump had threatened even higher rates and the deal gives some certainty that trade will continue, albeit with higher costs.

As a result, the bank's benchmark deposit rate is expected to remain at 2%. The rate influences borrowing costs throughout the economy.

The ECB raised rates sharply to combat a burst of inflation in 2021-23, and has since lowered them as inflation came back under control and concerns grew about growth. Higher rates fight inflation but can slow growth, while lower rates can stimulate economic activity by making borrowing cheaper for purchases.

Eurozone inflation was 2.1% in August, roughly in line with the bank’s target of 2%. With growth holding up, that means there’s no great pressure to move rates Thursday. Analysts think another cut is possible in coming months.

France's fiscal trouble presents a challenge for Lagarde's communication at her post-decision news conference. The French government's bond-market borrowing costs have risen somewhat due to the inability of a divided parliament to tackle the large deficit, which was 5.8% of GDP last year. In case of a full-blown market panic that sends rates higher, the ECB could intervene to purchase French bonds and drive down borrowing costs. But that's only possible for countries that are obeying the EU's rules on limiting debt or are moving to comply, which France at this point is not.

“Lagarde will have to mince her words carefully this Thursday, neither suggesting that the ECB may eventually bail out an unrepentant fiscal sinner nor taking such a harsh line as to unsettle markets that still give France the benefit of the doubt," said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg bank.

Source: finance.yahoo

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Thomas

Central Bank

European Central Bank policymakers see their December meeting as the most realistic time frame to debate whether an another interest rate cut is needed to buffer the euro zone economy from the impact of U.S. tariffs, three sources told Reuters.

The ECB left rates unchanged on Thursday and maintained an upbeat view on growth and inflation, dampening expectations for any further cut in borrowing costs.

But sources on the ECB's Governing Council said the debate on a rate cut was not over just yet, although policymakers probably won't have enough information by their next meeting in October 29 to make a proper assessment.

This meant that the December 18 meeting was seen as the more likely date to discuss a reduction in borrowing costs, also in light of incoming inflation and growth data and the next batch of projections.

An ECB spokesperson declined to comment.

Source: Yahoo Finance

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Samantha Luan

Economic

Political

Hydrogen is often thought to be linchpin of a future 100% renewable economy. To make up for wind and solar's deal-breaking intermittency and to rid industry of energy-dense fossil fuels, the surplus cheap electricity that renewables produce during times of abundance would need to be channeled into electrolyzers that split water molecules into hydrogen and oxygen. The hydrogen could then be collected, stored, transported, and eventually combusted for on-demand energy.

But is this scenario really the most cost-effective and environmentally-friendly option? Would it make more sense, for instance, to produce hydrogen from another carbon-free source – nuclear power?

A trio of scientists in the Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering at the University of Pisa in Italy explored that question. Utilizing data from the International Atomic Energy Agency Hydrogen Economic Evaluation Programme, the group performed a feasibility assessment to compare various methods of producing hydrogen from futuristic Gen IV nuclear reactors. Their findings are published in the journal energies.

Two methods of producing hydrogen from nuclear power rose to the top. First, engineers could construct an attached electrolyzer system just like with renewable energy. Since a nuclear reactor is almost constantly running as "baseload" power, plant operators could simply divert power to the electrolyzers when grid demand wanes. The researchers estimate the cost of hydrogen with this setup would be 2.71 USD/kg with paltry carbon emissions of 0.3 kgCO2e/kgH2.

Second, the authors envisioned a system where futuristic Gen IV reactors operating at high temperatures (between 550 and 1000 °C) can produce hydrogen through the hot steam they emit. This high-temperature steam electrolysis is similar to how hydrogen is produced from steam reforming via natural gas. They predict costs here to be 3.57 USD/kg with slightly higher emissions of 0.8 kgCO2e/kgH2. Costs are higher because it a more novel system, even though it is "the most efficient coupling since it better exploits the electrical and thermal energy resources produced by the reactor," the researchers write.

Costs and carbon emissions for both methods compare favorably with current costs of hydrogen produced from fossil fuels and renewables. In Europe in 2023, hydrogen made via methane reforming cost 3.76 EUR/kg (4.39 USD) and produced emissions of at least 11.6 kgCO2e/kgH2. Hydrogen made from a direct connection to renewables cost 6.61 EUR/kg (7.71 USD) with emissions similar to production from nuclear.

The researchers' assessment is highly preliminary, of course. There's only one commercial nuclear reactor in operation today that matches the reactor they modeled. It's in China. Their cost estimates could also be overly rosy, and it's likely that the cost to produce hydrogen with renewables will come down over time as solar panels grow more efficient.

The world currently produces 52.6 million tons of hydrogen per year, used mostly to make ammonia for fertilizer. The process of making this hydrogen accounts for two percent of the world's total energy consumption and contributes roughly the same proportion of global carbon dioxide emissions. Even if hydrogen doesn't find wider use in industry, transportation, and grid storage, we still need a lot of it to feed the world, preferably produced in a far cleaner manner than it is currently. Nuclear energy could provide it in abundance.