Fed Unveils Proposal to Ease Bank Leverage Requirements

Central Bank

Political

Summary:

The proposal, if completed, could result in a sizeable reduction in capital for the nation's biggest banks.

The Federal Reserve unveiled a proposal on Wednesday that would overhaul how much capital large global banks must hold against relatively low-risk assets, as part of a bid to boost participation in U.S. Treasury markets.

The proposal unveiled by the Fed would reform the so-called "enhanced supplementary leverage ratio" so that the amount of capital banks must set aside is directly tied to how large a role each firm plays in the global financial system. The Fed board will consider and vote on the proposal later Wednesday.

The proposal, if completed, could result in a sizeable reduction in capital for the nation's biggest banks. Depository institution subsidiaries at those banks would see capital requirements fall by an average of 27%, or $213 billion. Global bank holding companies would see a 1.4% capital reduction, or $13 billion.

The move is the first in what is expected to be a sweeping effort by the Fed and other bank regulators to step back several rules established following the 2008 financial crisis, as the Trump administration prioritizes deregulation in a bid to boost economic growth.

Fed policymakers touted the changes as a necessary fix, as the requirement imposed as a backstop following the 2008 financial crisis had gradually grown over the years to occasionally constrain bank activities, particularly thanks to the rapid rise in government debt in recent years. Given the leverage requirements direct banks to set aside capital regardless of risk, some Fed officials worried the requirement disincentivized large banks from facilitating Treasury market trading, particularly during times of stress.

"The proposal will help to build resilience in U.S. Treasury markets, reducing the likelihood of market dysfunction and the need for the Federal Reserve to intervene in a future stress event," said Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, in prepared remarks.

Bowman added that the sizeable reductions at the bank level would not allow banks to pay out more to shareholders, as the overarching holding companies at each firm would remain constrained by additional capital requirements. Instead, firms would be able to reallocate capital within their organizations more efficiently, she said.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a prepared statement it was "prudent" to reconsider the rule, given the increase in safe assets on bank balance sheets over the last decade.

Under the current rule, banks must set aside a flat percentage of capital in reserve against all assets. Under the new approach, similar to one proposed but not completed in 2018, banks instead would have to hold capital that is equal to half of their "GSIB surcharge," which is an additional capital requirement imposed on the nation's largest banks, and set based on their overall footprint in the financial system.

While the proposal is expected to advance, two Fed governors indicated they plan to oppose the proposed changes at the Wednesday meeting. Fed Governors Adriana Kugler and Michael Barr said in separate prepared statements they will vote against the proposal, citing the sizeable decrease in capital requirements and skepticism the changes would meaningfully improve bank activities in Treasury markets.

Barr previously served in Bowman's role as the Fed's top regulatory official under President Joe Biden.

Source: Reuters

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Owen Li

Central Bank

Donald Trump has begun interviews to choose a successor for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. This move highlights potential shifts in monetary policy and financial markets.

Promises of tariff revenue and changes in leadership could reshape financial markets, potentially impacting monetary policies and global assets.

Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Scott Bessent are considered for Powell's role. Trump criticized Powell's leadership, highlighting potential policy shifts. In a statement, Trump remarked, "I know within three or four people who I’ll pick. I mean, he goes down pretty soon, fortunately, because I think he’s terrible..."

Market dynamics could shift globally, with key cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH responding to rate policy changes. Trump's criticisms point to potential interest rate policy updates.

Jerome Powell emphasized stability, suggesting no immediate changes in monetary policy. Future administration choices could influence financial and crypto markets.

Primary emphasis on new leadership could reshape U.S. financial policies. Historic transitions offer insights into potential market volatility for digital assets. Crypto market adjustments could reflect leadership and policy shifts.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Adam

Economic

President Trump told reporters that he is actively considering replacements for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, and that he is down to three or four candidates.

"I know within 3 or 4 people who I’m going to pick," he said Wednesday, without offering specific names.

The consideration of Powell successors comes after a period of intensifying pressure from Trump to consider rate cuts as the chairman’s guarded wait-and-see monetary policy stance continues to inflame tensions with the White House.

Trump’s comments on Wednesday didn’t address the question of whether he is looking to fire Powell or announce his final pick quickly in part to undercut Powell’s authority for the remainder of his term.

But it comes after the president offered last week: "Maybe, just maybe, I'll have to change my mind about firing him?"

Powell has said he intends to serve out his term as chair, which ends in May 2026.

"He goes out pretty soon fortunately because I think he's terrible," Trump added Wednesday.

The comments from the president during a press conference in the Netherlands came at the same time as Powell sat before Senate lawmakers about 3,800 miles away in Washington for his second day of regularly scheduled testimony before Congress.

Powell told Senate lawmakers that the central bank is "well-positioned to wait" on any interest rate adjustments until it has more clarity on how Trump's tariffs will affect inflation and the direction of the US economy. He delivered the same message to House lawmakers Tuesday.

The president's attacks on Powell intensified at the end of last week as Trump called for rates to drop from 4.25% to 4.5% to between 1% and 2% and said of Powell and the Fed's board of governors: "I don't know why the Board doesn’t override this Total and Complete Moron!"

Trump repeated some of those points in a Tuesday social media post, calling for rates "at least two to three points lower" and saying that Powell "will be in Congress today in order to explain, among other things, why he is refusing to lower the Rate."

"I hope Congress really works this very dumb, hardheaded person, over. We will be paying for his incompetence for many years to come."

On Wednesday Trump reiterated his oft-stated case of why Powell should lower rates by at least one percentage point immediately, citing "no inflation."

He also recounted an earlier face-to-face meeting with Powell, offering a mocking voice for Powell, and repeated his personal attacks by saying "I think he's a very stupid person actually" and "an average mentally person."

Trump is not the only one calling for lower rates. Even some of Powell's fellow policymakers — Fed governors Michelle Bowman and Chris Waller — have said in recent days that they now see cutting rates as soon as the Fed's next policy meeting in July due to recent mild inflation readings.

But other officials have pushed back on that urgency and warned that it is too soon to know the true effects of tariffs on inflation.

Some names have already circulated in Washington as possible replacement for Powell. One is former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, considered by many to be a frontrunner for the job. Waller is another current Fed official considered by some central bank watchers as a possible pick.

Bloomberg has reported that the name of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is also now being circulated as a possible replacement for Powell.

Bessent told lawmakers earlier this month he would like to remain in his seat until 2029, but he did not dismiss the possibility of becoming the next chair of the Fed.

Bessent said he has "the best job" in Washington and is "happy to do what President Trump wants me to do," while noting that "I would like to stay in my seat through 2029" to help carry out the administration’s agenda.

Source: finance.yahoo

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Forex

The EUR/USD has eased back a tad after climbing to a fresh 2025 high on Tuesday. Much of the pair’s gains over the past couple of days stem from US dollar weakness linked to the collapse in oil prices and shifting expectations around Fed policy. The markets are now fully pricing in a September rate cut, but calls are also growing for a cut in as early as July, which was not even on the radar at the start of the week.

News of the ceasefire agreement and the corresponding collapse in oil prices has certainly helped to undermine the dollar. The focus is turning to macroeconomics again and away from geopolitics, judging by how markets have behaved in the last couple of days. It looks like investors are fully confident that the ceasefire agreement will not be broken, which is why oil prices are still lower and global equities are near recent record highs again.

Fed Chair Was Neutral to Slightly Dovish

Powell was a little more neutral to slightly more dovish than markets had anticipated when he testified yesterday, no doubt helped by the collapse in oil prices. The US dollar index is now trading a little firmer, especially against the USD/JPY while also finding some mild support against other currencies too.

The dollar bears will need to see further signs of weakness in the US economy to sell the greenback aggressively. On that note, there is not much data to look forward to today. But yesterday’s CB consumer confidence data came in weaker to provide fresh evidence of weakening consumer sentiment.

There is also the possibility we could see a more mixed performance from the dollar, rising against weaker currencies and falling against the risk-sensitive currencies. That is, of course, unless a fresh flare-up in the Middle East conflict sends oil prices spiking again.

What Will Markets Focus on Next?

Markets are now shifting their attention to the second day of Powell’s testimony later today, and expectations are that he will repeat more of what we already heard the day before. Recent dovish hints from a string of policymakers, including Waller, Bowman, and Goolsbee, who all expressed openness to earlier-than-expected rate cuts, means the upside potential for the dollar should remain limited while risk appetite remains strong.

However, if Powell walks back on the dovish Fed commentary today, then we could see the dollar turn more mixed. It could, for example, rise against low-yielding currencies while underperforming risk-sensitive currencies like commodity dollars.

Meanwhile, the next big data release is the May core PCE inflation figure—the Fed’s preferred inflation measure – which will come out on Friday. The FOMC expects core PCE to end the year at 3.1%, a touch higher than the headline rate. These projections, however, rest on fragile assumptions about the impact of trade tensions and oil prices.

Soon, the focus will also turn back to trade and tariffs. With the July 9 deadline fast approaching, it is unlikely we will see a notable dollar recovery unless the US manages to strike deals with some of the more important trading partners like China.

Ceasefire Weighs on Crude Oil and Dollar

After holding its own surprisingly well during the height of the conflict, the EUR/USD has turned notably more bullish this week as markets shed the geopolitical risk premium tied to the Middle East. With Iran, Israel, and the US all agreeing to a ceasefire, and oil prices plunging sharply over the last day or so, traders have been quick to rotate back into dollar shorts.

Now, unless oil prices spike again, it is unlikely that the dollar will find support from this source. Normal day-to-day oil volatility should not cause too much concern for FX traders.

Mixed Eurozone Data

The broader EUR/USD outlook remains balanced. While the dollar has largely been on the back foot so far this week, the euro’s own fundamentals are far from compelling. Monday’s eurozone PMIs landed roughly in line with expectations, showing that while business sentiment has stabilised, the economic outlook still points to stagnation.

On Tuesday, German IFO survey, however, was a touch stronger at 88.4 vs. 87.5 last, though nothing ground-breaking. Later in the week, flash CPI prints from France and Spain will shed light on inflation dynamics that could influence ECB tone heading into July.

In other words, the euro isn’t rallying on strength. The drop in oil prices removes pressure on Europe’s energy-sensitive economy, which may support the single currency at the margins.

Still, some caution is warranted. The move higher in EUR/USD could stall if Powell resists delivering any dovish surprises today, or we see a string of better-than-expected data. Longer-term, the dollar’s performance will depend on Trump’s ability to strike trade deals.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis and Trade Ideas

The higher highs and higher lows on the chart certainly paint a bullish EUR/USD outlook, or at least, it is largely keeping the bears at bay.

In terms of short-term levels to watch, Monday’s oil-driven high at 1.1581 comes in just above the April high of 1.1573. This means the area between these two levels is now the first zone of potential support to watch. Below that, Friday’s high comes in at 1.1544, and then the psychologically important 1.15 handle comes into focus below that. As before, 1.1450 remains the most important support area, which was successfully defended on Monday. Bearish if we go below it.

On the upside, 1.1631, making the recent high, was tested, and therefore, the first bullish objective was already met. Thereafter, you have round handles like 1.17 and 1.18 as the next potential upside targets.

In conclusion, the EUR/USD outlook has shifted into bullish territory for now—but it’s driven by weakness in the dollar more than strength in the euro. Traders are focusing on fundamentals again as geopolitics takes a back seat.

Source: investing

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Adam

Stocks

The Nasdaq 100 index reached a record high on Tuesday, and the S&P 500 is a mere 150 pips away from a record high. US stock indices are taking a breather, and futures markets suggest that they will open mostly flat later on Wednesday. This is to be expected. There are not too many drivers for markets right now, and it is normal for investors to pause when markets reach record highs. The question is, will US stock market dominance come back into play?

While US stocks have outperformed their European peers in the last month, the S&P 500 is higher by 5%, while the Eurostoxx 50 index is down by 1%, if you zoom out then the picture looks different. European indices have massively outperformed their US counterparts so far this year. The Dax index is higher by 18%, the Ibex in Spain by 19% and the FTSE MIB in Italy is higher by 15%. In contrast, the S&P 500 is higher by 3.5% and the Nasdaq by 3.1%. The FTSE 100 and Eurostoxx 50 index have also outperformed and are higher by 7% each.

Are German defense stocks coming off the boil?

European stocks have been led higher by German companies, and German defense stocks. Germany’s commitment to greater fiscal spending on defense and infrastructure has driven the defense stock theme this year. Rheinmetall is up 177% YTD and is set to replace luxury giant and Gucci owner Kerring in the Eurostoxx 50 index.

As you can see, Rheinmetall has outperformed Nvidia by a wide margin this year.

Chart 1: Rheinmetall and Nvidia, normalized to show how they have moved together this year.

However, could the tide be turning? Defense stocks have sold off this week, and in the past week, Rheinmetall is down more than 2%, compared to a 2% gain for Nvidia. As Germany’s plans for defense spending are now well known, and as tensions in the Middle East calm down, the AI theme is coming back to entice traders.

The relative performance of Rheinmetall and Nvidia is reflecting the slowdown in demand for defense stocks. In the past month, Nvidia has started to outperform the German defense giant. This is an early indicator that the US tech giants could come back into vogue this summer, as defense stocks cool off after a strong run in the first half of 2025. This could be the US’s time to shine.

Chart 2: Rheinmetall and Nvidia, normalized to show how they have moved together in the past month.

Source: XTB and Bloomberg

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Devin

Central Bank

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs will likely push up inflation in the coming months, even as some Republican senators suggested the chair was biased against the duties.

On the second day of his twice-yearly testimony before the House and Senate, Powell said that consumers will likely have to shoulder some of the cost of the import taxes. Most Fed officials support cutting rates this year, Powell added, but the central bank wants to take time to see how inflation changes in the months ahead.

“There will be some inflation from tariffs coming," Powell said under questioning from members of the Senate Banking Committee. “Not yet, but over the course of the coming months.”

Powell noted that the duties would likely cost hundreds of billions of dollars annually, and “some of that is going to fall on the consumer. We're just kind of waiting to see more data on that."

Some GOP senators criticized Powell, however, for characterizing tariffs as a potential driver of inflation. Sen. Pete Ricketts, a Republican from Nebraska, argued that the duties could simply act as a one-time increase in prices that wouldn't fuel inflation.

And Sen. Bernie Moreno, a Republican from Ohio, echoed some of Trump's complaints about Powell's reluctance to cut rates and accused Powell of political bias.

“You should consider whether you are looking at this through a fiscal lens or a political lens because you just don’t like tariffs,” Moreno said. Powell didn't respond.

But the Fed chair reiterated that most central bank officials do support cutting the Fed's key rate this year. And Powell added that it is possible that tariffs won't increase inflation by very much.

Trump has sharply criticized Powell for not reducing borrowing costs, calling him a “numbskull” and a “fool.” Trump has pushed for rate cuts in order to reduce the interest costs the federal government pays on its debt. Yet some Fed officials have pushed back against that view, saying that it's not their job to lower the government's borrowing costs.

So far, inflation has steadily cooled this year despite widespread concerns among economists about the impact of tariffs. The consumer price index ticked up just 0.1% from April to May, the government said last week, a sign that price pressures are muted.

Compared with a year ago, consumer prices rose 2.4% in May, up from a yearly increase of 2.3% in April.

Yet most economists on Wall Street expect that Trump's tariffs will lift inflation this year, to about 3% to 3.5% by the end of this year.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Adam

Commodity

Middle East Situation

In yesterday’s article entitled Trump’s Art of the USD, I wrote that the Peak Chaos was likely reached and now the markets are likely to react to even moderate levels of chaos as if the latter was gone, or low. On top of that, it seems that Trump’s previous plan to create uncertainty giving him leverage in negotiations is now turning into the stage where some results would be necessary. Please note that it’s not just my own interpretation – it’s what Trump wrote himself in his Art of the Deal book, which is now the blueprint for his actions.

From Chaos to Control

That’s probably why he’s insisting on the narrative that Iran’s nuclear facilities were completely destroyed despite the report from Pentagon says otherwise.

The latter confirms that we’re likely headed into a period of greater stability, however unlikely it may seem given all that happened in the previous weeks.

Gold and mining stocks seem to be already sensing that as they are already declining. In fact, gold did something that it wasn’t able to do months – it confirmed the breakdown below its rising support line.

Ceasefire or Not – Gold Is Still Declining_1

The support line is based on the local bottoms that we saw in January and February. Gold price tried to break below this price four times: in March, in April, twice in May, and once in early June. In each of those cases, the breakdown was quickly invalidated. By quickly, I mean that gold never managed to stay below this line for three days.

Until yesterday.

Yesterday marked the third consecutive daily close below this rising support line, and since gold is not rallying today (and neither is silver), it seems that we’ll get a fourth daily close below it soon. Gold is still holding above $3,300 per ounce, but it might not be for long.

On top of that, we see that this time, gold first moved back to this trend line and failed to rally above it. This was a tiny verification, and now we have the final confirmation coming from the daily closes.

Same with gold miners.

Ceasefire or Not – Gold Is Still Declining_2

Yes, the GDXJ did reverse before the end of the day, but it was still the lowest daily close recorded in June.

Plus, this ETF closed $0.01 (but still) below its highest April price. We still have several days left before the end of the month, and given that gold is now declining almost regardless of what’s going on in the world, it seems quite likely that we’ll see GDXJ in the red in June.

For example, gold ignored USD’s move to its recent lows.

Ceasefire or Not – Gold Is Still Declining_3

When the USD Index declined to about 98 in April, gold soared.

When the USD Index declined to about 98 in early June, gold moved up, but not significantly so.

And now, with the USD Index testing 98 once again, gold is declining.

Plus, the USD Index’s turning point is about to be reached – the USDX has a tendency to reverse its course close to the turn of the month. Earlier this year, these were local tops, but in the previous years, we saw many bottoms on those occasions. As the most recent move was to the downside, this might mark the final bottom.

Again, gold is declining despite the military conflict between Israel and Iran (and even regardless of the involvement of the U.S. bombers) as well as the move lower in the USD Index.

This is a clear sign that gold is ready to fall further – probably significantly so.

– But PR, the USD Index has been trading this low for almost 50 days now – isn’t this too long for a bottom? Won’t it slide from here after all?

No.

I mean, anything could happen on the markets, but this is very unlikely in my view.

Ceasefire or Not – Gold Is Still Declining_4

USD Isn’t the Weakest Link

The USD Index is sitting on combination of very powerful support levels – the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement based on the 2008 – 2022 rally as well as the 61.8% Fib. retracements based on the 2018 – 2022 and 2020 – 2022 rallies.

Yes, issues like twin deficits remain unresolved, but let’s keep in mind that the USD Index is a weighted average of currency exchange rates – and fundamental situations in the Eurozone and Japan are not really better than they are in the U.S. – and the same goes for other countries, but EUR and JPY have the highest weight in the USD Index.

Besides, broad bottoms in the USD Index are quite common – and the final bottoms quite often form close to the middle of the year, which is exactly where we are right now.

Ceasefire or Not – Gold Is Still Declining_5

Ceasefire or Not – Gold Is Still Declining_6

Ceasefire or Not – Gold Is Still Declining_7

Ceasefire or Not – Gold Is Still Declining_8

Ceasefire or Not – Gold Is Still Declining_9

Ceasefire or Not – Gold Is Still Declining_10

As you can see, in recent years, there were two cases when the broad bottom formed between 50 and 60 trading days. In other cases, those bottoms took longer.

Consequently, with this bottom being formed over 47 trading days (as of today) is completely normal. In fact, if the USD Index rallies from here, it will be the shortest bottoming period in a long time.

This creates the opposite question – has enough time passed for the USD Index to form the final bottom? In my view, the answer is yes, as 47 is not far from 50, and Trump’s decision framework now calls for some successes and stability. This should be positive for the U.S. dollar (while being negative for gold).

Did gold rally based on the increased (real and perceived) chaos in the previous weeks and months? Of course.

But does it mean that it will rally more? Not necessarily. Gold has not only managed NOT to rally despite further increases in chaos (Middle East), but even declining in this environment. This, plus the fact that Trump’s Art of the USD now calls for results – and likely increased levels of stability – higher values of USD and lower values of gold are to be expected.