Fed Holds Rates Steady, Cites Rising Risk Of Higher Inflation And Unemployment

Economic

Summary:

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday but said the risks of both higher inflation and unemployment had risen, further clouding the economic outlook as the U.S. central bank grapples with the impact of Trump administration tariff policies.

The economy overall has "continued to expand at a solid pace," the Fed said in a policy statement, attributing a drop in first-quarter output to record imports as businesses and households rushed to front-run new import taxes.

The labor market also remained "solid" and inflation was still "somewhat elevated," the central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee said, repeating the language used in its previous statement.

But the latest statement highlighted developing risks that could leave the Fed with difficult choices in coming months.

"Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further," the FOMC said at the end of a two-day meeting during which officials agreed unanimously to keep the central bank's benchmark interest rate steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range.

"The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen," the statement said.

The direction of policy will depend on which of those risks develop, or, in the more difficult outcome, whether inflation and unemployment increase together and force the Fed to choose which risk is more important to try to offset with monetary policy.

A weaker job market would typically strengthen the case for rate cuts; higher inflation would call for monetary policy to remain tight.

The Fed's policy rate has been unchanged since December as officials struggle to estimate the impact of President Donald Trump's import tariffs, which have raised the prospect of higher inflation and slower economic growth this year.

With policy unchanged and no new economic projections issued, it will fall to Fed Chair Jerome Powell to elaborate on the meeting and the outlook in a press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT (1830 GMT).

When policymakers last updated their economic and policy projections in March, they anticipated reducing the benchmark rate by half a percentage point by the end of this year.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Adam

Economic

Market uncertainty caused by U.S. President Donald Trump's erratic policymaking and aggressive stance on tariffs hung heavily over an investor gathering in Los Angeles this week, with many saying it is time to pivot to non-U.S. assets for more clarity.

Concerns over the U.S. economic trajectory, and growing chances of an imminent recession fueled by White House trade policies were major topics at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, where Wall Street dealmakers and global investors gathered to raise capital, sell companies and get a handle on the industry's mood.

On panels and in more than a dozen private interviews on Monday and Tuesday, attendees said the U.S. economy's size and depth of its capital markets left few viable alternatives for a dramatic shift away from American assets. Many, however, said the volatility was pushing them to consider higher allocations to non-U.S. markets, Europe in particular.

"We've spent a lot of time focused on the U.S. and Europe, and historically, we have had a little bit of a bias towards the U.S.," said Purnima Puri, governing partner at HPS Investment Partners, a New York-based credit investment firm.

"We do think Europe is starting to look significantly more interesting, and that's a market we're spending time on," she said on stage at the conference on Tuesday.

Entrepreneur Andre Loesekrug-Pietri elicited grins and pats on the back as he walked the halls sporting a green baseball cap with the words "Make Europe Great Again," in a tongue-in-cheek poke at Trump's red "Make America Great Again" hats.

While many downplayed the risk of capital outflows from the U.S. that spooked markets in the immediate aftermath of Trump's tariff announcement last month, the search for alternative geographies was a major theme at the event.

Some bankers characterized it as a chance to diversify portfolios with too much U.S. exposure, particularly earlier this year and late last year, when the market was betting Trump's second presidency would boost the economy through deregulation and tax cuts.

Contributing to the shift are Europe's improved growth prospects and lower asset valuations.

"At the start of the year, I think the view was that the U.S. was the place to be, and that's where capital is going to flow, and ... that has shifted differently," said Lee Kruter, partner and head of performing credit at GoldenTree Asset Management, speaking on stage.

"In the first quarter we looked for opportunities in Europe," he added, citing better growth prospects and lower risks of stagflation than the U.S.

Several senior bankers and investors said western Europe is the obvious place to invest in but it could have challenges as well.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sought to calm event attendees, noting in a speech on Monday that betting against America was a time-tested mistake.

But concerns over a tariff-induced slowdown and a prolonged trade war with China have kept investors on edge.

Several bankers said in interviews that the market's current enthusiasm may be premature and that it would take little, like a comment from China on stalling trade talks, to send stocks lower again.

Saira Malik, chief investment officer at Nuveen, said non-U.S. assets could continue to do better as long as tariff uncertainty persists, but over the long-term U.S. assets could outperform other geographies again, with the tech sector being a major driver.

FINANCING US DEBT

A less urgent but also prominent concern was the U.S. fiscal outlook, with the prospect of rising government debt feeding doubts over the long-term safety of U.S. assets.

"I believe that the underlying foundation of the dollar and Treasury market has been eroding over the last number of years, and we better pay attention to it pretty soon," Alan Schwartz, executive chairman at Guggenheim Partners, warned on a panel on Monday.

Steven Mnuchin, founder and managing partner of Liberty Strategic Capital, said the U.S. dollar had no alternative as the global reserve currency.

"With that comes a level of responsibility," the former U.S. Treasury secretary in Trump's first administration said at the event on Monday.

"It is very important for us to keep the dollar as the reserve currency of the world, because if people don't view that, then we're going to have an even bigger problem financing our debt."

Source: finance.yahoo

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Commodity

Oil slumped as geopolitical tensions from Yemen to Iran showed signs of easing and traders searched for clues on the US Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

West Texas Intermediate futures dipped by more than 1% to trade below $59 a barrel, after briefly topping $60. US President Donald Trump said the US would stop its bombing campaign against Houthis in Yemen after a ceasefire was facilitated by Oman. That followed earlier comments from Vice President JD Vance that a nuclear deal with Iran could see the OPEC member reintegrated into the global economy.

In the US, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates steady in their meeting Wednesday. Traders are awaiting comments by Chair Jerome Powell for insight into whether Trump’s trade and economic policies are changing the agency’s view on the pace of rate cuts.

Prices failed to sustain an earlier rally on news that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with Chinese officials in Switzerland later this week, the first confirmed discussions since Trump imposed sweeping tariffs. Beijing also cut its policy rate to fortify its economy in the face of reciprocal tariffs.

“There is a fear that the trade negotiations in Switzerland with China could backfire and turn into a demand destruction event,” said Robert Yawger, director of the energy futures division at Mizuho Securities USA. Building market sentiment that a rate-cut is not in the cards anytime soon is also weighing on prices, he added.

Oil has trended lower since late January due to escalating trade frictions and plans by OPEC+ to keep boosting idled supply, but prices have moved away from their lows in the last couple of days.

The decline in crude prices will likely lead to falling American shale output, according to Diamondback Energy Inc., the largest US independent oil producer in the Permian Basin. In another sign of the hit to output, the Energy Information Administration cut its forecast for US crude production this year for a second straight month.

Source: finance.yahoo

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Owen Li

Central Bank

LPL Financial Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach said in an assessment he made on the Yahoo Finance program Morning Brief that this week’s meeting will most likely be “boring.” Roach said that Fed officials will prepare markets for the first rate cut in June with domestic and international speeches they will make during this process.

Roach said he expects three interest rate cuts during the year, adding that these could be quarter-point cuts in June, October and December, respectively. He noted that there are positive signals, especially in non-housing services inflation, which is called “super core.”

Roach also made assessments of employment data, stating that the latest figures do not fully reflect the truth and that some temporary hirings (such as in the warehousing sector) make the picture look stronger than it is. He also pointed out that the data could be misleading because federal employees are still on the payroll due to severance pay or early retirement.

However, Roach said that the persistent demand for labor in the health sector provides stability to the labor market, and that the general trend is a slowdown in employment growth over the last year and a half but still positive. He added that as long as the average employment growth remains above 125,000, the message of stability will continue to be given to the markets.

Roach said that businesses tend to hold on to their current employees because of the difficulties they face in finding qualified workers, and that this could limit layoffs. However, he also noted that wage increases could slow down.

Noting that there has been a rapid increase in the number of people unemployed for a long time, Roach added that this rate has reached pre-pandemic levels but does not yet show signs of recession. For this reason, he stated that the markets reacted positively to the employment data announced last Friday.

According to Roach's assessment, the Fed will not change interest rates this week, but will begin to lay the groundwork for a possible cut in June.

Source: CryptoSlate

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Cryptocurrency

Grab a coffee as we dissect Bitcoin’s place in mainstream finance. The narrative of the pioneer crypto decoupling from traditional equity markets gains significant attention, but is it ready for the next step?

Crypto News of the Day: Bitcoin Still a Diversifier, Not a Reliable Hedge, RedStone Exec Says

BeInCrypto’s recent US Crypto News series in April explored whether the digital gold narrative was breaking down as Gold ascended to new highs while Bitcoin lagged.

The report came after extensive advocacy for Bitcoin as digital gold, with many presenting it as a safe-haven asset against negative market price movements.

However, recent findings beg the question: Is that time finally here? BeInCrypto contacted RedStone to ask: Is Bitcoin a hedge for traditional markets?

The response was insightful, with key takeaways from Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder and COO of the leading cross-chain data oracle provider RedStone. According to Kazmierczak, data support Bitcoin’s role as a portfolio diversifier.

Kazmierczak cited analysis of Bitcoin and S&P 500 data from the past 12 months of open American market days. They analyzed on weekly and monthly timeframes.

Bitcoin Isn’t Ready to Replace Gold or Bonds, Analyst Warns | US Crypto News_1

Bitcoin correlation on a 7-day timeframe

For the 7-day correlation, which provides a more short-term outlook, they noted F periods when BTC exhibited a strong negative correlation with the American stock markets.

However, the 7-day aggregation is a short-term metric, making it susceptible to influence from market noise. The 30-day chart provides a clearer representation.

Bitcoin Isn’t Ready to Replace Gold or Bonds, Analyst Warns | US Crypto News_2

Bitcoin correlation with S&P on a 30-day timeframe

This timeframe reveals several shifts between modest positive, near-zero, and slightly negative correlations throughout the 12 months.

Bitcoin May Not Be Ready to Replace Traditional Hedges

He explained that Bitcoin exhibited variable correlation with the S&P 500 (SPX) over the past year.

This variance, he said, does not support positioning Bitcoin as a replacement for traditional hedges like gold or bonds.

He observed that institutional players still fundamentally classify Bitcoin as a risk-on asset. According to Kazmierczak, this range indicates that Bitcoin operates with periodic independence from traditional equity markets.

He believes the correlation is generally modest enough to provide portfolio diversification benefits. However, the variance nullifies Bitcoin from functioning as a reliable counter-movement hedge.

Nevertheless, the RedStone executive articulated that if Bitcoin truly transitions to being treated as a safe-haven, risk-off asset, it would mark the most profound asset narrative transformation in modern financial history.

Chart of the Day

Bitcoin vs S&P 500 performance

The chart suggests Bitcoin’s performance has often diverged from traditional equity markets, especially in 2024-2025.

However, this does not definitively indicate a permanent decoupling or consistent negative correlation with equities.

While Bitcoin outperformed at times, it still shows periods of correlation with the S&P 500, indicating its role in portfolio protection remains uncertain and context-dependent.

A recent US Crypto News publication indicated what could pass as context for these variations. BeInCrypto cited political tension and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence.

source : beincrypto

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Devin

Economic

The Southeast Asian nation’s trade minister and top negotiator, Nguyen Hong Dien, urged the firms, including in energy, mining, telecommunications and aviation, during a meeting in Hanoi to be “proactive” to help US-Vietnam trade reach its “great potential,” the government said in a statement.

Nguyen Hong Dien also met with the US Ambassador to Vietnam, Marc Knapper, “to promote the ongoing negotiation process aimed at addressing current bilateral economic and trade issues,” it said.

Vietnam is among a group of countries opening trade talks with the US that are facing some of the steepest tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, aimed at reviving manufacturing that moved overseas in recent decades. Trump’s main target, China, is also a major trade partner for Vietnam but has challenged its access to offshore areas both countries claim in the South China Sea.

Vietnam’s trade surplus narrowed sharply in April in what could be an early indication of the impact of higher US tariffs. The surplus in April was $577 million, compared with the $1.64 billion reported for March, according to data released by the National Statistics Office in Hanoi Tuesday.

US officials late last month had draft plans to hold negotiations with about 18 countries over three weeks, using a template that lays out common areas of concern to help guide the discussions, including on tariffs, non-tariff barriers, digital trade, economic security and commercial concerns.

The US ran a nearly $124 billion trade deficit with Vietnam last year, according to the US Trade Representative, the third-highest after China and Mexico. The surge in trading in recent years is partly due to firms leaving China to avoid Trump’s trade war during his first term. Besides being a large apparel exporter, Vietnam has also become a manufacturing base for multinational companies including Apple Inc.’s suppliers and Samsung Electronics Co.

USTR Jamieson Greer in March told Nguyen Hong Dien in Washington that Vietnam must improve the trade balance and further open its market, which the government in Hanoi pledged to do via removing tariffs on US goods and buying more from the US. Vietnam also vowed to combat trade fraud and increase monitoring of products’ origin.

Trump imposed a 46% tariff on Vietnam on April 2, which was later suspended for 90 days to allow time for talks.

In its statement Wednesday, Vietnam said it had imported in recent years billions of dollars worth of US aircraft, machinery, power transmission systems, high-end semiconductors and raw materials.

The US normalized relations with Vietnam in 1995 after lifting a trade embargo the year before, a legacy of their conflict that ended in 1973. In 2023, President Joe Biden updated the relationship to a “comprehensive strategic partnership,” Hanoi’s highest diplomatic level and one it has used for India and China.

Vietnam has previously sought to improve it export options to the US by applying for “market economy” status from Washington regulators. That request was rejected last August by the Commerce Department as critics argued the government in Hanoi controls prices and production and subsidizes enterprises that compete with American firms.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Catherine Richards

Cryptocurrency

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin price has been consolidating between $93,410, and $97,000 for the past 7 days. As of now, traders are waiting on the FOMC meeting set for 2 p.m. ET today to know the next move. There’s a possibility that the BTC price will break above $100k following the meeting.

According to the data on CME FedWatch Tool, there’s a 97.7% chance the Fed will keep rates steady between 4.25% and 4.50%. Meanwhile, tension is rising as inflation stays sticky and rate-cut demands grow louder. But despite all this political pressure, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to stick to his cautious approach.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin price is trading at $96,929, up 2.44% in the last 24 hours with a volume of $38.1 billion, according to CoinMarketCap.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin price recently bounced off a support zone at $93,000. Right now, the price is testing a resistance zone. If the price holds and gains strength, it could jump 5% toward $102,2500. If not, a drop to $88,772 is possible.

In a recent report on May 6, Crypto exchange Bitfinex confirmed that Bitc can hit a new all-time high only if the price manages to stay above the support level at $95,000. The exchange said “The $95,000 level—currently under consolidation—is a critical pivot point, acting as the lower boundary of a three-month range.” In short, if the price stays above this level may lead to a new all-time high, but dropping below could trigger a sharp fall.