Exclusive-Labubu-maker Pop Mart Learns From Disney To Capitalise On Toy's Viral Success

Samantha Luan

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China's Pop Mart is borrowing from Disney's playbook to turn toothy monster Labubu's blockbuster sales into long-term success, Executive Director and co-COO Si De told Reuters in a rare interview.

China's Pop Mart is borrowing from Disney's playbook to turn toothy monster Labubu's blockbuster sales into long-term success, Executive Director and co-COO Si De told Reuters in a rare interview.Pop Mart has already done what many thought impossible - making Labubu the first Chinese product to win a global audience for its emotional and creative appeal rather than because it represents value-for-money.

Now it aims to capitalise on the art toy's success.

"We have learned from Disney for a long time. In fact, Disney's great value lies in its ability to operate IP (intellectual property) over the long-term, even up to 100 years," Si said, pointing to the example of Mickey Mouse, created as a cartoon nearly a century ago.Even as analysts question Pop Mart's reliance on Labubu and the company's fate as the toy's popularity inevitably cools, the firm itself still sees plenty of potential to develop content, entertainment, theme parks and more merchandise around the character - as Disney does with its most popular IP.

Si did not give a timeline or estimate on investment during the first interview a top executive from the firm has done with foreign media since 2022.He said Pop Mart's focus in the near-term was not to find the "next big hit" but to invest in "better products, finding better collaborations, developing content, theme parks, store displays" for Labubu, and the eventual goal was to have five to 10 IPs with similar long-term potential to Labubu.

THE LABUBU PARADOX

Labubu's global success has sent the Hong Kong-listed company's shares up almost 200% so far this year, and Pop Mart is now worth more than Hasbro, Mattel and Sanrio combined."Pop Mart is selling a lifestyle that consumers are buying because they want to be part of it," said Louis Houdart, China managing partner at Mad, a consulting firm, adding that its margins rivalled some luxury brands.It has also fuelled investment in China's red-hot art toy industry, intensifying the competitive pressure on Pop Mart, the market leader.

Estimates in July from Industry World, a Chinese market intelligence platform, said the Chinese art toy market was expected to reach more than 120 billion yuan ($16.85 billion) in revenue this year, accounting for more than 35% of the global market and maintaining double-digit growth in China.Though Pop Mart does not break out Labubu sales, the series it belongs to, The Monsters, accounted for almost 35% of total first-half revenue this year, raising questions about the company's dependence on the character.

Labubu's popularity has boosted sales of stablemates such as Molly, Skullpanda and Crybaby (which each had more than 1 billion yuan in sales in the first half), but also fuelled curiosity beyond Pop Mart's offerings."Because of the success of Pop Mart, there are more people with money wanting to invest in this industry. You see right now there's a lot of new companies and there's definitely more and more artists trying to do IP as a way of making money," said Runyu, the 24-year-old winner of China's first art toy design competition reality TV show.

Other major art toy retailers in China include 52 Toys and Miniso, which traditionally relied on licensing IP from the likes of Disney and Sanrio but is now investing more in original IP development and signing partnerships with art toy designers."Pop Mart has blazed a trail" for the rest of China's art toy industry, said Zhou Junyu, head of IP at Siguworks, one of the art toy companies working with Miniso.As Pop Mart has studied Disney, other firms in China have studied Pop Mart. Whether the Disney model will help it see off the growing competition remains unclear.

"We all know Disney's playbook, which overall is relatively easy to replicate, but its success is not," said Morningstar analyst Jeff Zhang. "I mean, compared to the legacy IP operators like Disney and Sanrio, Pop Mart still has a long way to go and during the process, there is also execution risk."

FOUNDATION FOR SUCCESS

Pop Mart's success with Labubu did not happen overnight, and was largely due to strategic decisions taken by founder and CEO Wang Ning over the past decade, three current and former Pop Mart employees said. They declined to be named because they were not authorised to speak to the media.In 2010, Wang, only 23 but with a string of entrepreneurial ventures behind him, opened a hip lifestyle store in Beijing.Within a few years he saw collectible figurines accounting for a significant portion of revenue, and decided to focus on art toys.

Wang also realised Pop Mart needed to own the IP it sold, according to two former employees, leading him to Kenny Wong - the designer of Molly, with her distinctive pouty face.Hong Kong-based Wong was dismissive when Wang first approached him in 2016, but he eventually agreed to a trial collaboration."During my most difficult years, inventory was my biggest concern, then Wang Ning showed up. He first solved my inventory problem, selling out all of it in a short period of time," Wong told Reuters. Wong handed regional licensing for Molly over to Pop Mart and the success continued. Labubu made its Pop Mart debut in 2019.

"Each time, they achieved remarkable results and progress, so much so that I finally gave them everything I had," Wong said.Pop Mart's "blind box" retail strategy - where consumers buy packages for around $10 to $20 without knowing exactly which toy is inside - and its focus on characters with appeal to young women, a high-spending consumer group that had previously been largely overlooked by the art toy industry, were the twin foundations of its success, the Pop Mart insiders told Reuters.

"I wouldn't say they have the model 100% right, that every IP is going to be a hit, but I think with the experience they have, they will get it right more than most," one said.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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James Riley

Looming federal government shutdowns have become almost routine in Washington. In March, Congress was just days away from a partial shutdown before lawmakers reached a spending deal to fund parts of the government. It was another instance of Congress putting off hard decisions until the last minute.

Now, with the Oct. 1 deadline looming, Congress faces another standoff over government funding. The Republican-led House passed a stopgap bill that would extend funding through Nov. 21, but to pass in the Senate, the bill needs the support of at least eight Democrats. Democratic leaders are insisting on the inclusion of health care provisions absent from the Republican-led bill: an extension of premium Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies — which are set to expire at the end of the year — and a reversal of cuts to Medicaid funding that were enacted earlier this year. They also want new restrictions on President Donald Trump’s ability to refuse to spend money appropriated by Congress.

Congressional leaders showed no signs of progress toward a deal on a short-term spending bill during a meeting with Trump on Sept. 29. Trump has signaled he is unwilling to grant Democrats concessions and has threatened to permanently fire federal workers en masse if the government shuts down.

Memories remain fresh of the longest shutdown in US history – 35 days in late 2018 into early 2019 – over Trump’s insistence on adding $5.7 billion to the budget for a wall on the border with Mexico.

The US government runs on 12 appropriations bills passed each year by Congress and signed by the president. In fiscal years like the one about to begin, when all 12 bills aren’t adopted by the Oct. 1 start of the fiscal year — the current count is zero, for those keeping score — Congress and the president keep the machinery of government humming by passing short-term extensions of current funding, known formally as continuing resolutions (CR). If they can’t agree to a CR, the US government has what’s called a funding gap and federal agencies may need to take steps to shut down. For fiscal year 2025, Congress has passed three such temporary funding patches, with the final one coming in March.

There have been 14 shutdowns since 1981, ranging in duration from a single day to the 35-day shutdown in 2018-2019. (Before 1981, agencies operated mostly as normal during funding gaps, their expenses covered retroactively once a deal was reached.)

Shutdowns over spending disagreements are different (and less grave) than what would happen if the US breached its debt ceiling and defaulted on some of its obligations. That’s never happened, though the US came close in 2023.

It means many, though not all, federal government functions are suspended, and many, though not all, federal employees are furloughed. Services that the government deems “essential,” such as those related to law enforcement and public safety, continue. These essential employees work without pay until the shutdown ends. In 2019, Congress passed a law guaranteeing that federal workers who are furloughed will receive back pay once the government is funded again.

That determination will be up to Trump political appointees and the White House if Congress fails to avoid a shutdown. Individual government departments — and the political appointees who run them — have a say over who comes to work and who stays home. In theory at least, a federal employee who works during a shutdown, but isn’t supposed to, could face fines or a prison term under what’s called the Anti-deficiency Act.

Among the most noticeable disruptions are closures of national park facilities and the Smithsonian museums in Washington and delays in processing applications for passports and visas. Oversight of financial swap markets and investigations of workplace civil-rights complaints are expected to stop. Economic reports from the Labor and Commerce departments could be delayed, depending on how long a shutdown lasts. The Treasury Department has said most core tax functions will pause in the event of a government shutdown, meaning that taxpayer phone calls will go unanswered and refunds will not be processed for returns that weren’t e-filed.

Military operations, air traffic control, medical care of veterans and federal criminal investigations are among the essential activities that go on. US troops would work but without pay. (In the 2019 shutdown, air traffic controllers threatened to walk off the job after a month of working without pay — a development that hastened the end of the shutdown.) The US Postal Service and the Federal Reserve have their own funding streams so are largely unaffected.

Private companies that rely on federal contract work — ranging from Elon Musk’s SpaceX to janitorial service providers for local federal buildings — would face lost revenue. Service contract employees historically have been furloughed during shutdowns and haven’t received back pay when the government resumes operations.

Entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare are considered mandatory spending, meaning they don’t need annual appropriations to continue distributing money. That doesn’t mean such programs are guaranteed to be unaffected. During a 1996 shutdown, even as Social Security checks continued to go out, “staff who handled new enrollments and other services, such as changing addresses or handling requests for new Social Security cards, were initially furloughed,” according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. And during the 2018-2019 shutdown, the Department of Agriculture had to rely on a special authority included in the previous continuing resolution to continue issuing food stamps.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Patrick Turner

Japanese industrial production fell more than expected in August after a similar decline last month as U.S. trade tariffs weighed on exports, while retail sales dropped unexpectedly to their lowest in four years.

Industrial production fell 1.2% month-on-month in August, government data showed on Tuesday. The print was weaker than expectations for a 0.7% contraction, and held steady from a 1.2% decline in July.

Retail sales fell 1.1% year-on-year, marking their first decline since Feb 2022, and their biggest fall since Aug 2021. The print came in against expectations of a 1% rise, and reversed from a 0.4% rise in July.

The weakness comes despite confirmation of a new U.S.–Japan trade deal last month that lowered planned duties on Japanese cars and parts to a baseline 15%, down from initial proposals of 25%. The revised tariffs still represent a drag on automakers, with manufacturers seeing thinner margins and weaker U.S. demand.

The unexpected weakness in retail sales data signaled that Japanese private consumption, a key driver of the economy, remained subdued due to headwinds from sticky inflation and economic uncertainty.

Private spending has been a major driver of Japanese inflation in recent years, and was also a motivating factor for the Bank of Japan to hike interest rates.

The BOJ held its interest rates steady at 0.5% earlier this month, but two board members dissented, calling for a quarter-point hike, signaling the central bank’s hawkish tilt.

Source: Investing

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Order blocks and breaker blocks are key price action concepts that reflect how institutional participants place and manage their trades. While often overlooked by retail traders, these structures can offer valuable insights into market intent and potential turning points.This article explains what order blocks and breaker blocks are, how they differ, and how traders can use them in market analysis. With a practical approach and clear examples, you'll learn how to identify these patterns on the chart and integrate them into your trading strategy.

What Is an Order Block in Trading?

An order block, also known as a supply or demand zone, represents a significant area on the price chart where large market participants, such as banks or institutional traders, have placed substantial buy or sell orders. They’re crucial in understanding the flow and direction of an asset, as they often precede notable movements in price. Particularly in the realm of forex, where the magnitude of transactions can be immense, identifying these zones can provide traders with a strategic edge.

A bullish order block, or demand zone, is identified during a downward price movement and is the area where the last bearish candle before a substantial upward price movement occurs. This indicates that institutional buyers are stepping in, absorbing sell orders, and preparing to push the price higher. Traders eyeing bullish order blocks anticipate these areas as potential points of interest where price may find support, thus offering a strategic entry point for long positions.

Conversely, a bearish order block, or supply zone, is found during an upward price movement and is characterised by the area where the last bullish candle appears before a significant downward price shift. This suggests that institutional sellers are overwhelming buyers, likely leading to a decrease in price. Bearish order blocks signal potential resistance zones, presenting opportunities to enter short positions in anticipation of a downward price trajectory.

In both instances, they typically create an impulse move that breaks a nearby high or low to continue or start a given trend. When the market returns to these areas, they often prompt a reversal of the short-term trend and a continuation of a higher timeframe trend.

Order blocks in forex are particularly telling due to the high market liquidity and the sheer volume of trades. Recognising these areas allows traders to align their strategies with the likely actions of major institutional players, potentially leading to more informed and effective trade decisions.

Why Order Blocks Work

These blocks work because they tap into the underlying dynamics of supply and demand, reflecting the actions of large institutional players whose trades can significantly impact price direction. They’re essentially snapshots of where significant buying or selling pressure has accumulated, offering clues to future price movements.

When a market approaches a supply or demand zone, the likelihood of a reaction—whether it's a continuation or reversal of the trend—increases because these levels are where institutional traders have previously shown interest, either by initiating large positions or placing take-profit orders.

Finding and Using Order Blocks

Now, let’s take a closer look at how to identify and use order blocks for trading.

Identifying Order Blocks

Traders often start by analysing historical price charts to locate order blocks. Typically, these are found where there was significant trading activity, often in the form of a consolidation, followed by a strong directional price move.A bullish order block is where the last bearish candle in a downtrend occurred before a sharp rise. Conversely, in a bearish order block, traders identify the last bullish candle before a significant fall.Note that order block candles visible on a higher timeframe tend to be more probable. Similarly, a small high-low range on a lower timeframe would appear as a single candlestick on a higher timeframe, meaning that the entire range can be plotted as a supply or demand zone.

Incorporating Order Blocks into a Trading Strategy

Incorporating order blocks into a strategy involves observing how the price behaves as it approaches these marked areas. Traders typically watch for price reactions near these zones, using them as indicators of potential entry or exit points. For instance, a price bounce off a demand zone may signal a good opportunity to go long, anticipating upward momentum as institutional interest possibly resurfaces.

Traders might also combine these areas with indicators and other analysis tools, such as moving averages or Fibonacci retracements, to validate their signals. This multi-faceted approach helps in fine-tuning entry and exit strategies, potentially increasing the likelihood of effective trades.

Risk Management

As with any strategy, it's crucial to practise sound risk management when trading with order blocks. Traders often set stop-losses just outside the zone with the assumption that institutional players won’t let the market trade beyond this point. However, when these zones fail, they become known as breaker blocks.

Understanding Breaker Blocks in Forex

In the realm of forex, understanding the concept of breaker blocks can be crucial when it comes to identifying potential reversals and continuations in trends. Breaker blocks emerge from the failure of order blocks. When these supply or demand zones do not hold, and the market structure shifts, breaker blocks are formed, marking significant levels to watch.A bearish breaker block occurs after a bullish order block fails. This typically happens when there's an upward trend, and a certain level that was expected to support the market's rise instead gives way, leading to a sharp decline. This decline indicates that sellers have overcome the buyers, absorbing liquidity and shifting the sentiment from bullish to bearish.

Conversely, a bullish breaker block is formed from the failure of a bearish order block. In a downtrend, when a level that was expected to act as resistance is breached, and the price shoots up, it signifies that buyers have taken control, overpowering the sellers.In both scenarios, price often retraces to the failed zone before continuing the newly formed trend.

Finding and Using Breaker Blocks

To harness the power of breakers, traders adeptly identify these pivotal points and integrate them into a coherent strategy.

Identifying Breaker Blocks

The first step involves scrutinising price charts for significant reversals that follow the failure of established supply or demand zones. A bearish breaker block, for instance, would be marked by a sudden decline after a bullish trend fails to sustain, trading through a bullish order block, and vice versa.The most notable breaker blocks are often the order blocks that stand out visually or would need to stay intact if a given trend is to continue. When they fail, they can then be plotted as a valid horizontal level to look for a retracement before a potential move away.

Strategic Application

Once identified, these zones can be strategically employed as markers for potential trade entries. For a bearish breaker, traders might consider short positions, anticipating further declines as price retests and rejects the previously failed support level. Conversely, a bullish breaker suggests a potential long position as the market may continue to rise, having breached a significant resistance.

Combining Order Blocks and Breakers

Combining these two ideas offers a nuanced approach to forex, especially when integrating the concept of liquidity voids or fair value gaps. These gaps occur when the price makes an impulsive move away from an order block without retracing, potentially marking areas for future reversals. This strategy shines in trending assets, where the directional momentum aligns with the formation of these critical zones, offering potential entry and exit signals.

Trending and Ranging Markets

In a trending market, order blocks that prompt sharp price movements away can be key areas to mark for a trend reversal. These marked zones can indicate where significant buying or selling pressure originated, offering potential entry points. However, it's essential to recognise that in a ranging or consolidating market, they might not hold as expected.

The Role of Breaker Blocks

When institutional interests shift, leading to the failure of an order block to act as support or resistance, this is where breaker blocks come into play, becoming a critical level to watch. Particularly after a sudden move, if a supply or demand zone ripe for reversal is now too far away to see an immediate retracement, the breaker serves as a strategic entry point ahead of a trend continuation.

Setting Market Direction with Breaker Blocks

Breaker blocks not only signal potential entry points but also help set market direction. The breach of an order block by price action indicates a strong likelihood that the asset will continue in that direction, underscoring a shift in institutional interest. When price trades through an order block, showing no signs of halting, it suggests a path for the trend, offering traders insight into the prevailing momentum.

Limitations of Order and Breaker Blocks

While order and breaker blocks provide insightful strategies in navigating forex markets, they come with limitations that traders should be aware of:

● Market Volatility: High volatility can disrupt the reliability of these zones, leading to false signals.

● Institutional Disguise: Large market players may mask their activities, making it challenging to identify genuine order or breaker blocks.

● Lagging Indicators: These areas are based on past price behaviour, which might not always be effective when analysing future movements.

● Overreliance: Solely depending on these strategies without incorporating other analyses can lead to missed opportunities or misinterpretations.

FAQs

What Is an Order Block in Trading?

An order block refers to a price area on the chart where significant buy or sell orders were previously placed by large institutional traders. These zones are key to identifying potential support or resistance levels, providing insights into future price movements.

What Is a Breaker Block in Trading?

A breaker block is a concept that emerges when an order block fails, leading to a change in market structure. It signifies a pivotal point where the market shifts direction, offering traders opportunities to enter trades based on anticipated trend continuation.

How to Identify Order Blocks?

Order blocks can be identified by analysing price charts for areas where there was significant trading activity, followed by a strong directional movement. Traders look for the last bullish candle before a downturn for a bearish block, or the last bearish candle before an uptrend for a bullish block, indicating potential zones of interest for traders.

Source: FXOpen

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James Whitman

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Political

● US funding lapse to halt Labor, Commerce departments' data activities

● Prolonged shutdown could impact third-quarter US GDP estimate

● September jobs data, August trade and construction data among first shutdown casualties

● Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment may be delayed if CPI report is postponed

The U.S. Labor and Commerce departments said on Monday that their statistics agencies would halt economic data releases in the event of a partial government shutdown, including closely watched employment data for September, construction spending and possibly international trade data for August.

The employment report, crucial for decision-making by officials at the Federal Reserve, businesses and households, is scheduled for Friday. Government funding will expire at midnight on Tuesday unless Republicans and Democrats agree to a last-minute temporary spending deal.

The Labor Department identified the Bureau of Labor Statistics as among the key agencies whose activities would cease during a lapse in funding. President Donald Trump was due to meet with Republican and Democratic leaders on Monday.

While it would suspend some activities, the statistical agency said it would publish the August Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment report due on Wednesday.

Similarly, the Commerce Department said monthly economic indicators from the U.S. Census Bureau would not be available in the event of a government shutdown. The department's Bureau of Economic Analysis would cease most services.

The Census Bureau is scheduled to release U.S. construction spending data for August on Wednesday and manufacturers' shipments, inventories and orders for August on Thursday.

The two agencies are scheduled to release data on August international goods and services trade on October 7. A prolonged shutdown could impact the Bureau of Economic Analysis' initial estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product due on October 30.

BLS also said a prolonged shutdown could delay the release of other data.

"Once funding is restored, BLS will resume normal operations and notify the public of any changes to the news release schedule on the BLS release calendar," the agency said in a statement.

It was not clear whether the weekly jobless claims report would continue to be published. The data is collected by states, which run the unemployment insurance programs, but the BLS does the seasonal adjustment.

CONCERNS ARE RISING OVER DATA QUALITY

Possible delays publishing the employment report would come at a time when concerns are growing over the quality of government-produced economic data, long viewed as the gold standard.

The BLS warned "a reduction in quality of data collected might impact the quality of future estimates produced."

The BLS has suffered years of underfunding under both Republican and Democratic administrations. That situation has been worsened by mass firings, voluntary resignations, early retirements and hiring freezes, which are part of an unprecedented campaign by the Trump administration to drastically reduce the size of government.

Response rates for the employment report have declined and the agency has suspended data collection for portions of the consumer price index in some areas across the country.

Should September's CPI report be delayed, that could leave the Social Security Administration unable to make its annual Cost of Living Adjustment announcement, which retirees depend on to plan their budgets.

Source: Reuters

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James Whitman

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Palestinian-Israeli conflict

The White House on Monday released a 20-point plan by President Donald Trump to end the war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas.

The release came minutes before Trump began speaking at the White House about the proposal, which has not been agreed to by Hamas.

Trump was joined by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Trump said that Israel, and other nations have accepted the outline he detailed.

"If accepted by Hamas, this proposal calls for the release of all remaining hostages, immediately, but in no case more than 72 hours," Trump said.

"I hope that we're going to have a deal for peace, and if Hamas rejects the deal, which is always possible, they're the only one left," Trump said.

"Everyone else has accepted it. But I have a feeling that we're going to have a positive answer. But if not, as you know Bibi you'd have our full backing to do what you would have to do."

Source: CNBC

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Manuel

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A meeting in the Oval Office doesn't appear to have lessened the chances of a partial government shutdown with both sides leaving the gathering saying no deal is in the immediate offing.

"We have very large differences," said Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer after he left the Oval Office.

Vice President JD Vance went further saying in a separate appearance: "I think we're headed to a shutdown." Republican Senate Leader John Thune added of the Democratic approach: "This is purely and simply hostage taking."

The lack of progress boosts the odds of the first government shutdown since 2019 that could begin on Wednesday morning at 12:01 a.m. ET without a last-minute deal.

Such a stalemate could produce unpredictable economic impacts, some of which could be felt quickly and others that could grow with each passing day.

Some effects are already in evidence in currency markets, but much of the market focus for now is on the government’s economic data that is set to cease being published and gathered if a stoppage goes forward.

That comes as both investors and the central bankers at the Federal Reserve are looking for all the information they can get about both the slowing labor market and persistent inflation ahead of another policy meeting in October.

"It's important to understand the U.S. economy is already on a knife's edge—the labor market has softened and inflation has risen," noted Michael Linden of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth this week. "Adding a government shutdown to the mix certainly won't help."

And a new and unpredictable feature around the shutdown is a Trump administration promise to consider mass firings if there is no deal, but with details scarce so far on how deep any permanent cuts could go.

The country could also wrestle with a host of familiar effects seen in previous shutdowns, from Transportation Security Administration (TSA) agents being forced to work without pay to national parks closed to visitors to no one being available at the IRS to answer the phones for tax questions.

Deliberations remain ongoing — and last-minute votes in the Senate are tentatively scheduled — but with expectations low that they will do much more than repeat the failed efforts seen earlier this month short of a last-minute sea change in the political dynamic.

"They are going to have to do some things because their ideas are not very good ones, they are very bad for the country," Trump said Monday afternoon of Democrats.

Here is a closer look at three areas where a shutdown could be noticed quickly:

Delayed (and then potentially less fulsome) economic data

A contingency plan released Monday by the Department of Labor laid out how its Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) would "completely cease operations" during a stoppage.

The agency would temporarily go from a workforce of 2,055 to just 1 full-time employee.

The agency's fulsome calendar of economic releases would halt to a stop — starting with Friday's jobs report. The already gathered data would then eventually be released but might wait for the duration of a shutdown.

And the longer a stoppage goes on, the more future data could be impacted with "all active data collection activities" ceasing — per the BLS plan.

That raises the prospect that October's economic data — from the Consumer Price Index to newer jobs data — would not only be delayed but would be less complete in a way that could be felt even after a shutdown has ended.

Another key source of government economic data — such as quarterly GDP numbers and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index — is the Bureau of Economic Analysis operated by the Department of Commerce. As of Monday afternoon, that agency's contingency plan had not yet been published.

The length of any stoppage may determine the effects on the data and the larger economy.

Experts have said that significant economic effects are quickly reversed during at least a limited shutdown — which often sees government spending cease but then be quickly made up when the government reopens.

Fear of a new layoffs among the government's workforce

Perhaps the most novel feature of a potential coming shutdown surrounds a plan to use the stoppage to not just furlough government workers but instead remove at least some of them from their positions permanently.

A directive circulated last week from President Trump's Office of Management and Budget (OMB) directed agencies "to use this opportunity to consider Reduction in Force (RIF) notices," adding that the possible permanent cuts would be in areas "not consistent with the president's priorities."

The idea is for these agencies to eventually reopen and retain "the minimal number of employees necessary to carry out statutory functions."

Such a move would represent a sharp departure from past shutdown procedures — where a wide swath of government workers were furloughed temporarily but with the promise of not just a return to work but also back pay after the shutdown ends.

It remains to be seen how aggressively various agencies will take up the directive, but the president himself told NBC News over the weekend "we are going to cut a lot of the people that ... we're able to cut on a permanent basis" if the government shuts down.

Uncertainty at airports and other scattered shutdown effects

A shutdown will leave government employees, including military personnel, temporarily without a paycheck but with many being asked to continue reporting to work.

A perennial public-facing example of this dynamic is at airports with both air traffic controllers and TSA agents expected to continue working even in a shutdown.

Past shutdowns have seen higher-than-normal unscheduled absences — especially among the lower paid TSA workforce — leading to some disruptions.

In a recent Yahoo Finance Live appearance, Breeze Airways founder and CEO David Neeleman said that air travel will be "fine" during a shutdown, adding "good thing it's not a really peak travel time of year."

Other prominent closures in past shutdowns have been national parks with everything from scenic natural areas to major tourist attractions shuttered.

The Internal Revenue Service is also again set to close operations such as call centers during a shutdown. And regulators overseeing financial markets will be cut back.

The most recently available plan from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lays out a plan to only keep on hand an "extremely limited number of staff members available to respond to emergency situations."

Getting a passport will still be possible but historically has been more difficult with many government buildings closed.

After Monday's Oval Office meeting, House Speaker Mike Johnson said "this is serious business" and ticked through the list of agencies that would face challenges from FEMA to food assistance programs and added "all that which is funded by the government would stop."

Meanwhile, many services would remain open.

Medicare benefits and Social Security checks will continue going out. And a number of entities — including the Federal Reserve — are expected to see minimal effects as they aren't primarily funded by Congress's annual appropriations process.

The nation's public schools — those are funded at the local level — will also remain open, although some federally funded programs like Head Start have historically shuttered during stoppages.

Finally, the mail will still be delivered, as the US Postal Service is largely self-funded through things like the sale of stamps.