Exclusive-India Weighs Greater Phone-location Surveillance; Apple, Google And Samsung Protest

Political

Stocks

Summary:

India's government is reviewing a telecom industry proposal to force smartphone firms to enable satellite location tracking that is always activated for better surveillance, a move opposed by Apple, Google and Samsung due to privacy concerns, according to documents, emails and five sources.

A fierce privacy debate erupted in India this week after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government was forced to rescind an order requiring smartphone makers to preload a state-run cyber safety app on all devices after activists and politicians raised concerns about potential snooping.

For years, the Modi administration has been concerned its agencies do not get precise locations when legal requests are made to telecom firms during investigations. Under the current system, the firms are limited to using cellular tower data that can only provide an estimated area location, which can be off by several meters.

The Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI), which represents Reliance's Jio and Bharti Airtel, has proposed that precise user locations should only be provided if the government orders smartphone makers to activate A-GPS technology - which uses satellite signals and cellular data - according to a June internal federal IT ministry email.

That would require location services to always be activated in smartphones with no option for users to disable them. Apple, Samsung and Alphabet's Google have told New Delhi that should not be mandated, said three of the sources who have direct knowledge of the deliberations.

A measure to track device-level location has no precedent anywhere else in the world, lobbying group India Cellular & Electronics Association (ICEA), which represents both Apple and Google, wrote in a confidential July letter to the government, which was viewed by Reuters.

"The A-GPS network service ... (is) not deployed or supported for location surveillance," said the letter, which added that the measure "would be a regulatory overreach."

'DEDICATED SURVEILLANCE DEVICE'

India's home ministry had scheduled a meeting of top smartphone industry executives to discuss the matter on Friday but it was postponed, a source with direct knowledge of the matter said. On Thursday, Reuters sent questions related to this topic to the ministry.

India's IT and home ministries, which are both analysing the telecom industry's proposal, did not respond to Reuters queries.

Apple, Samsung, Google, Reliance and Airtel did not respond to requests for comment. Lobby groups ICEA and COAI also did not respond.

At this point, no policy decision has been made by the IT or home ministries.

Taking advantage of A-GPS technology - which is typically only turned on when certain apps are running or when emergency calls are being made - could provide authorities with location data precise enough that a user can be tracked to within about a meter, according to technology experts.

"This proposal would see phones operate as a dedicated surveillance device," said Junade Ali, a digital forensics expert associated with Britain's Institution of Engineering and Technology.

Cooper Quintin, a security researcher at the U.S.-based Electronic Frontier Foundation, said he had not heard of any such proposal elsewhere, calling it "pretty horrifying."

Governments worldwide routinely seek new ways to better track cellphone users' movements or data. Russia has mandated the installation of a state-backed communications app on all mobile phones in the country.

TELCOS VS SMARTPHONE FIRMS

India is the world's second-biggest mobile market with 735 million smartphones as of mid-2025, where Google's Android powers more than 95% of the devices, with the rest using Apple's iOS, Counterpoint Research says.

Apple and Google's lobby group, the ICEA, argued in their July letter that there are significant "legal, privacy, and national security concerns" with the proposal from the telecom group.

It warned their user base would include people from the military, judges, corporate executives and journalists, adding that proposed location tracking risked their security given that they hold sensitive information.

Even the old way of location tracking is becoming problematic, the telecom group said, as smartphone makers show a pop-up message to users, alerting them that their "carrier is trying to access your location."

"A target can easily ascertain that he is being tracked by security agencies," said the telecom group, urging the government to order phone makers to disable the pop-up features.

Privacy concerns should take priority and India should also not consider disabling the pop-ups, Apple and Google's group argued in its July letter to the government.

This will "ensure transparency and user control over their location."

Source: Investing

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Justin

Political

Economic

Indonesian officials plan to take legal action against a dozen companies whose actions they say may have worsened deadly floods and landslides in northern Sumatra.

Forestry Minister Raja Juli Antoni told parliament on Thursday that the ministry will investigate 12 companies in connection with the disaster, adding that mismanagement of forests appeared to have contributed to a cyclone-driven catastrophe that has killed more than 800 people in Indonesia.

He said the ministry would also revoke forest-concession permits held by 20 companies managing a combined 750,000 hectares of concessions in Sumatra and elsewhere in the Southeast Asian nation, pending approval from President Prabowo Subianto.

Antoni did not identify the companies.

Hundreds of people remain missing after more than a week of flooding and landslides in Sumatra, officials say.

Separately, the environment ministry has revoked environmental permits of several companies after satellite-imagery analysis and field inspections in disaster areas revealed signs of illegal logging and land clearing, Indonesia's Government Communication Agency said Thursday.

Environment Minister Hanif Faisol Nurofiq said eight companies would be summoned for questioning starting Dec. 8, and that investigations could escalate to criminal prosecution, according to the GCA. The agency added that an initial assessment found evidence that forest areas had been cleared for agricultural use, which it said left them more vulnerable during periods of heavy rainfall.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Samantha Luan

Political

Economic

The US lobbied several countries in the European Union in an effort to block EU plans to use frozen Russian central bank assets to back a massive loan to Ukraine, according to European diplomats familiar with the matter.

US officials argued to member states that the assets are needed to help secure a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow and should not be used to prolong the war, said the diplomats, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

The EU put forward a proposal this week to use the immobilized assets to back a €90 billion ($105 billion) loan to cover Ukraine's economic and military needs for the next two years. There are about €210 billion of frozen Russian assets on EU soil and more of those could be used from 2028 on.

The US State Department's press office didn't respond to a request for comment.

The discussions come at a critical time for Ukraine, with the US pressuring Kyiv to agree to a potentially lopsided peace deal with Russia. Ukraine risks running out of money early next year and President Donald Trump's administration has cut off most US aid, putting the onus on Europe.

Washington has also been eyeing the Russian assets as part of its proposals to enable peace talks with Moscow, and had suggested they could be used to fund US-led postwar investments.

A US 28-point peace plan has been modified since it first emerged last month, but assets remain one of the key sticking points, along with the status of Ukrainian territories and providing Kyiv with robust security guarantees, some of the people said.

European leaders have been adamant that how to use the assets is a European matter as the frozen funds are mostly held in Europe.

There is "no possibility of leaving the money we mobilize to the US," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Thursday.

"The American government knows this, and this is also the German government's negotiating position," he said. "This is also the consensus at the European level. There are absolutely no differences of opinion on this. This money must flow to Ukraine — it must help Ukraine."

The EU's plan to use the assets faces domestic opposition as well, particularly from Belgium, where most of the funds are held.

Merz will travel to Brussels Friday for talks with Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in an effort to break down Belgian resistance to the EU plan.

Merz, who has been a strong advocate of using the Russian assets to aid Ukraine, told reporters that he takes the Belgian premier's concerns "very seriously" and that he would try to address them at Friday's meeting.

"I don't want to persuade him, but rather convince him," he said at a news conference Thursday evening in Berlin after talks with German regional leaders. "If we take this path, we will do so to help Ukraine, possibly for the next two to three years."

Belgium argues that it has yet to receive sufficient guarantees that it won't be left on the hook alone to foot any future bill should Moscow win any future claims on recovering the assets. It also says that using the frozen funds would open Europe, and it's companies, to Russian retaliation.

Belgium's national budget has received hundreds of millions of euros in tax revenue from the immobilized funds, though it argues that the money is being used to provide aid to Ukraine.

Belgium's current rejection of the plan remains the main stumbling block to its approval ahead of an EU leaders' summit later this month, where the bloc will be aiming to sign off on the proposals.

The EU has proposed backing the loan using the bloc's budget or through bilateral guarantees from member states. The assets would remain frozen and Kyiv would only have to pay the loan back if Russia agrees to finance the country's reconstruction and compensate it for the damage the war has inflicted.

In addition to Belgium, Hungary is against the plans and Slovakia has said it will not back proposals that provide Ukraine with military support. Approval would only require a qualified majority of member states.

The commission has also floated the option of issuing joint debt in the event they can't reach an agreement to use the immobilized assets. But member states including Germany reject that idea, and the fact that it requires unanimity makes it improbable.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Winkelmann

Forex

Technical Analysis

Key Points:

· The US Dollar holds near a five-week low as traders prioritize Fed rate-cut expectations over strong labor data.

· Markets price an 85–86% chance of a December Fed cut, keeping downward pressure on the dollar despite resilient jobs numbers.

· A delayed flow of key economic reports from the shutdown leaves dollar traders navigating incomplete macro signals.

US Dollar Price Forecast: Drops Amid 85% Fed Cut Probability – GBP/USD And EUR/USD_1

Market Overview

The US dollar remained soft against major peers during European trading, holding near a five-week low. Even with solid labor data released Thursday, the greenback failed to gain traction as investors continued to price in a more accommodative Federal Reserve.

Labor Strength Offers Limited Support

Initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level in more than three years, underscoring resilience in the US labor market. The reaction in currency markets, however, was muted.

Traders focused less on weekly improvements and more on the Fed's policy direction. Some analysts also noted that the Thanksgiving period may have distorted the data.

Fed Cut Expectations Keep Pressure on the Dollar

Markets now assign roughly an 85–86% probability of a quarter-point rate cut at the December 9–10 FOMC meeting, with expectations for several additional cuts next year. Anticipation of easier policy continues to weigh on the dollar, reducing its appeal even as economic indicators remain firm.

Data Gaps Add to Market Uncertainty

The extended government shutdown has delayed several key economic releases, including monthly payroll figures. With incomplete data, investors have been forced to navigate the outlook with limited visibility, increasing uncertainty around near-term dollar direction.

While the dollar still offers defensive appeal during periods of risk aversion, Fed communication in December and upcoming employment updates will likely determine its next move.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The Dollar Index (DXY) trades near $98.92, moving inside a well-defined descending channel that has guided price lower since late November. Recent candles show rejection at the mid-channel trendline near $99.06, signaling persistent selling pressure. The index remains below both the 50-EMA and 200-EMA, reinforcing a bearish structure.

Immediate support sits at $98.76, followed by $98.56 and $98.38 if downside momentum continues.

A break below these levels would extend the channel toward the lower boundary. On the upside, resistance stands at $99.22, and a close above that level would be required to challenge the broader downtrend.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD trades near $1.3353, holding inside a rising channel that has guided the pair higher since mid-November. Recent candles show buyers defending the mid-channel support at $1.3326, keeping the short-term structure intact. Immediate resistance sits at $1.3375, where multiple rejection wicks indicate supply.

Below current levels, support stands at $1.3287, followed by $1.3248 and $1.3190 if sellers extend pressure. Price remains above the 50-EMA, while the 200-EMA below confirms broader bullish momentum.

RSI is recovering toward 55 after easing from overbought, suggesting stabilizing momentum. A breakout above $1.3375 could open $1.3424, while losing the channel floor risks a deeper pullback toward $1.3287.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD trades near $1.1659, holding inside a rising channel that has guided price higher since late November. Recent candles show buyers defending the mid-channel trendline around $1.1653, keeping the short-term bias constructive. Immediate resistance stands at $1.1688, where multiple rejection wicks show supply.

On the downside, support sits at $1.1623, followed by stronger levels at $1.1591 and $1.1566 if sellers pressure the trend. The pair remains above the 50-EMA and 200-EMA, reinforcing broader bullish structure.

RSI is recovering from mid-range toward 55, indicating improving momentum but not stretched conditions. A close above $1.1688 could open $1.1716, while losing the channel floor risks a deeper pullback toward $1.1591.

Source: FX Empire

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Gerik

Economic

India’s “Goldilocks” Moment: Growth Steady, Inflation Slumps

In a widely anticipated decision, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) lowered its benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, citing a rare “goldilocks” economic scenario marked by robust growth and sharply cooling inflation. The move, unanimously approved by the central bank’s six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), is the fifth rate cut since February, totaling 125 basis points of easing in 2025.

Governor Sanjay Malhotra described the current conditions as “rare,” with inflation falling below the RBI’s target range while economic output remains resilient. “Policy space exists,” Malhotra noted, suggesting the central bank has ample room for further cuts if global or domestic conditions warrant additional support.

Liquidity Push: $11 Billion in Bonds, $5 Billion in Forex Swaps

Alongside the rate cut, the RBI announced aggressive liquidity injections, including a ₹1 trillion ($11.14 billion) open market bond purchase and $5 billion in foreign exchange swaps. These measures aim to ensure the lower policy rates quickly translate into cheaper credit and financial market stability.

Following the announcement, India’s 10-year bond yield dropped to 6.4581%, reflecting easing borrowing costs. The rupee depreciated slightly to 89.87, while stock markets edged up 0.1%, indicating moderate investor optimism.

Forecast Revisions Reflect Confidence

The RBI upgraded its GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year to 7.3%, up from a prior 6.8% estimate, after the economy surprised with 8.2% expansion in the July–September quarter. Meanwhile, inflation projections were slashed to 2% from 2.6% a reflection of October’s extraordinary drop in retail inflation to just 0.25%.

Such a low inflation print well below the RBI’s 4% midpoint target and even the 2% lower tolerance threshold gives the central bank a strong mandate to continue stimulating the economy, especially in the face of global headwinds.

Risks Linger: U.S. Tariffs and Global Uncertainty

Despite upbeat domestic data, risks persist. New U.S. tariffs of up to 50% on Indian exports threaten growth in sectors like textiles and chemicals. Malhotra acknowledged that external uncertainties could pose “downside risks,” emphasizing the need for flexible and proactive policy.

With inflation falling faster than expected and external trade pressures rising, India appears poised for further rate cuts in early 2026. The RBI’s neutral stance gives it the option to act as needed without alarming markets or signaling inflation complacency.

India’s rate cut and liquidity boost reflect a central bank attuned to both domestic disinflation and international turbulence. By maintaining a “neutral” policy stance, the RBI is striking a balance between nurturing economic growth and preparing for global volatility. The move bolsters India’s position as a standout performer among emerging markets in 2025, with a flexible, forward-looking monetary strategy to match.

Source: Reuters

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Andrew Korybko

Energy

Zelensky announced last month that Ukraine will import American LNG from Greece via the “Vertical Gas Corridor” pipeline. This project complements Poland’s joint LNG plans with the US and to a lesser extent Croatia’s to lay the basis for American LNG completely replacing Russian gas in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) one day. Although it’s much more expensive, policymakers on the continent are going along with this on energy security pretexts, but US pressure upon them likely played a major role in their decision.

The US’ latest energy power play could also put an end to Russia’s Turkish gas hub plans. These were announced in late 2022 after talks between Putin and Erdogan, but Bloomberg reported last June that they’d been shelved due to technical difficulties in supplying CEE from Turkiye as well as disagreements between it and Russia. Neither party confirmed their report, but now that the US captured more of the CEE market through the “Vertical Gas Corridor” pipeline, the odds of this hub being built have declined.

The Duran’s Alex Christoforou wrote an insightful post on X about this, which importantly noted that the “Eastern Mediterranean (Israel and Cyprus) is watching the start of this vertical corridor closely as it can be utilized to sell future EastMed gas into Europe.” The “EastMed” refers to the proposed underwater pipeline of the same name for exporting Israel’s enormous offshore gas reserves to the EU. Its completion would likely eliminate the need for Russian gas in CEE for good when combined with US LNG.

To make matters even more concerning for Russia, Reuters reported last month that “Turkey's gas shift threatens Russia and Iran's last big European market”, which drew attention to how increased domestic production and LNG imports could greatly reduce Turkiye’s future need for Russian gas via TurkStream. Trump’s threatened sanctions on all those who continue importing Russian energy without provably weaning themselves off of it, which could take the form of up to 500% tariffs, could accelerate this trend.

Russia wouldn’t just lose tens of billions of dollars’ worth of yearly revenue if all the aforementioned American plans succeed, but tensions with Turkiye might become unmanageable if the complex energy interdependence that tied them together till now is broken. It’s already expected that Turkiye will inject Western influence into Central Asia through the new TRIPP corridor, thus posing challenges along Russia’s entire southern periphery, which will further complicate Turkish-Russian ties.

If their complex energy interdependence weakens by then, such as if their gas hub plans essentially remain frozen or are officially canceled and Turkiye begins importing less Russian gas from TurkStream, then Turkiye might be emboldened to more aggressively challenge Russia on this front. After all, the scenario of Russia cutting off gas exports in order to coerce concessions from Turkiye during a crisis would be less effective, which could result in more hardline Turkish positions that raise the risk of war.

Russia should therefore seek to revive their gas hub plans and reach an agreement with the US, perhaps as part of the grand deal that they’re trying to negotiate right now, to secure Russia’s gas market share in Turkiye and possibly restore part of it in CEE. That would almost certainly require Russia compromising on some of its maximalist goals in Ukraine, and the US’ word can’t be taken for granted since future presidents could rubbish any deal, but Russia should still consider this possibility instead of ruling it out.

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Gerik

Economic

Strategic Hospitality in Chengdu Signals France’s Elevated Role

In a rare diplomatic gesture, President Xi Jinping joined French President Emmanuel Macron on a trip outside Beijing to Chengdu, capital of Sichuan province. This level of personal engagement, rarely extended to foreign leaders, underscores China’s strategic pivot toward France as its key interlocutor in Europe. France’s economic size and diplomatic autonomy, particularly its nuanced stance in transatlantic affairs, may be why Beijing is elevating Macron’s role in its European outreach.

The two leaders, accompanied by their spouses, visited the Dujiangyan irrigation system a UNESCO World Heritage Site with symbolic significance, representing China’s ancient ingenuity in water management. The inclusion of this site in the itinerary serves both cultural diplomacy and soft power objectives.

Macron Begins Day Jogging, Ends with Subtle Diplomacy

Macron’s visit began on an informal note, with footage of him jogging in Chengdu’s Jincheng Lake Park circulating widely on Chinese social media. This added a personable dimension to the visit, contrasting with the highly choreographed formal meetings that usually define state visits in China.

Later, in a formal meeting in Beijing, the two nations signed 12 cooperation agreements. These span areas like population aging, nuclear energy development, and panda conservation topics that reflect shared long-term interests but did not involve any major economic transactions or figures. Notably absent was a highly anticipated $50+ billion order for 500 Airbus jets, long discussed between China and France.

Airbus Order Withheld Amid U.S.–China Trade Dynamics

While Macron is accompanied by top executives from leading French corporations, including Airbus, China appears to be withholding a major aircraft order to retain leverage in parallel trade negotiations with the United States. Beijing is currently under pressure from Washington to purchase more Boeing aircraft as part of ongoing trade diplomacy.

Approving a large Airbus deal now would risk further straining U.S.–China economic relations. By delaying the decision, China retains bargaining power, using aircraft purchases as a strategic economic lever between the two Western powers.

Xi’s Chengdu meeting with Macron reflects a dual-track strategy: signaling openness and cultural warmth toward Europe while carefully calibrating economic moves to maintain leverage in broader geopolitical contests, particularly with the U.S. Macron’s visit his fourth to China reaffirms France’s role as a preferred dialogue partner, but also highlights the limited room for major deliverables when great power rivalry constrains global trade diplomacy.