Dow Jones Rises As Nvidia Slides On New China AI Chip; Tesla Extends Rally

Economic

Summary:

The Dow Jones rose while Tesla extended its rally and Nvidia fell on China AI chip news. Investors await key U.S. economic data and major earnings, with market volatility remaining elevated.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and other major stock indexes traded mixed Monday, as Wall Street was in danger of snapping a four-day winning streak. In stocks, Tesla (TSLA) looked to continue its rally, while Nvidia (NVDA) fell sharply on reports of a new artificial intelligence chip out of China.

After the opening bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%. The S&P 500 moved up 0.3%, as the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite gained 0.2% in morning trading.

The 10-year Treasury yield ticked higher to 4.29% early Monday. Meanwhile, oil prices dropped, as West Texas Intermediate futures traded near $62.90 per barrel.

Among exchange traded funds, the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) inched up, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) moved up 0.3% after the open.

Tesla stock climbed another 2.4% in early action Monday, on pace extend last week's sharp gains. Shares bullishly climbed above their 50-day moving average line Friday, and are now within striking distance of their 200-day line, the next resistance level to watch. The Elon-Musk led-company remains nearly 42% off its record high of 488.54, reached on Dec. 18.

Nvidia stock declined 1.6% in morning action Monday after the Wall Street Journal reported that China's Huawei is developing a new AI chip that could replace some of Nvidia's high-end semiconductors. Shares of the AI giant rallied sharply for a fourth-straight session Friday, headed toward their 50-day line, an important area to watch.

Stock Market Today: GDP, Inflation, Payroll Reports Loom

On the economic front this week are the releases of GDP and inflation reports from the U.S. Commerce Department, along with monthly payrolls data from the Labor Department.

Forecasts say first-quarter GDP, out Wednesday, will show growth slowing to a 0.9% annualized rate from 2.4% in the fourth quarter, according to FactSet. The personal income and outlays report will include the core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed's primary inflation measure. Economists expect a 0.1% rise, lowering the 12-month inflation rate to 2.6%.

In stocks, Domino's Pizza (DPZ) declined 0.8% Monday after the pizza joint reported earnings early. Shares remain near a 500.55 buy point.

First-quarter earnings season heats up this week, with results from Apple (AAPL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Caterpillar (CAT), Pfizer (PFE) and Eli Lilly (LLY).

Dow Jones Extends Rally

On Friday, blue chips on the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed less than 0.1%, or 20 points. The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, while the Nasdaq composite advanced 1.3%.

Due to current market volatility, now is an important time to read IBD's The Big Picture column for how to handle the current market and to track the updated exposure level.

Among the best companies to watch in the current stock market are CrowdStrike (CRWD), MercadoLibre (MELI), Penumbra (PEN), Spotify (SPOT) and TJX (TJX).

Along with Apple and Nvidia, Dow Jones components making notable moves this week were Amazon.com, Microsoft (MSFT) and McDonald's (MCD).

Check out IBD MarketSurge's "Breaking Out Today" list for top growth stocks that are moving above correct buy points. Investor also can find potential breakouts on the "Near Pivot" list. To find additional stock ideas, check IBD Stock Lists like IBD 50, Big Cap 20 and Stocks Near A Buy Zone.

Dow Jones Stocks: McDonald's Nears Buy Point

Shares of Dow Jones component McDonald's edged higher Monday after briefly rallying above an early entry at 319.72 Friday. The stock is forming a flat base with a 326.32 buy point, according to MarketSurge chart analysis.

Outside the Dow, cybersecurity leader and new IBD Leaderboard stock CrowdStrike is adding to breakout gains past a 400.02 buy point in a cup with handle, according to IBD MarketSurge chart analysis. Shares lost 0.2% Monday morning.

E-commerce giant MercadoLibre is just above a 2,202 buy point in a double bottom, according to IBD MarketSurge. MercadoLibre stock dropped 0.3% Monday.

Penumbra also broke out last week, topping a 288.57 double-bottom entry. Its relative strength line is at new highs, triggering the blue dot on the IBD MarketSurge chart. That's a bullish indicator of market leadership. Shares inched up 0.1% early Monday.

Music streaming leader Spotify has topped a double-bottom's 621.20 buy point. Spotify stock was down 1.9% Monday.

Finally, Guidewire is rapidly nearing a 201 buy point in a double bottom, finishing Friday just below the buy trigger. Guidewire stock moved up 1.2% in early morning trades.

Dow Jones Leaders: Amazon, Apple, Microsoft

Magnificent Seven stocks are rebounding from lows as Wall Street reacts to the fallout of President Donald Trump's tariffs. One of them, Dow Jones component Amazon, fell 0.2% early Monday, still leaving the stock squarely below its 200-day line.

IPhone maker Apple moved down a fraction Monday morning. Shares closed Friday at their highest level since early April.

Finally, software giant Microsoft dropped 0.8% Monday. Shares are above their 50-day line for the first time since late January.

Source : investors

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Gerik

Commodity

Technical Fragility Near Key Support Levels

Crude oil prices fell more than 2% last week, driven by a combination of oversupply concerns, weakening demand prospects, and a strengthening U.S. dollar. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is currently oscillating around $63.06 per barrel, a critical Fibonacci retracement level. Earlier attempts to rebound toward the 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $66.18 were short-lived due to a lack of reinforcing factors, causing prices to retreat. Technical analysis suggests that if current market conditions persist without supportive news, oil prices may slip further, testing the next significant support at $59.67 per barrel.

The close alignment between technical levels and investor sentiment highlights that price movements are closely correlated with confidence shifts. However, a direct cause-effect linkage between technical breakdowns and macroeconomic factors requires broader confirmation through demand-supply data trends.

Oversupply Fears Dominate Market Psychology

Investor sentiment this week remains notably bearish. According to LSEG analysis, the anticipation that OPEC+ could soon increase production—possibly beginning in June—has fueled concerns about market oversupply. A stronger U.S. dollar, which typically makes commodities priced in dollars more expensive for non-U.S. buyers, compounds the downward pressure.

This dynamic reflects a clear relationship where the prospect of expanded production correlates with declining oil prices. While OPEC+ decisions do not immediately alter physical supply, market expectations react swiftly, reinforcing a strong forward-looking correlation between policy announcements and price behavior.

Trade Tensions Resurface, Dampening Demand Outlook

Hopes for an improvement in U.S.-China trade relations were dashed when China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs dismissed reports of ongoing tariff negotiations. Although China continues to exempt some U.S. imports from tariffs, the broader market narrative has shifted toward skepticism about global demand resilience.

The reemergence of trade friction influences oil demand expectations by signaling potential slowdowns in global economic activity. Thus, the relationship between trade disputes and crude oil demand projections remains significantly correlated, although other variables such as domestic stimulus policies could moderate this effect.

Potential Russian Supply Increases Add to Market Strain

Another layer of pressure stems from potential changes in Russian oil supply. Recent progress in U.S.-Russia diplomatic dialogues regarding the Ukraine conflict has raised speculation that sanctions on Russian oil exports could be eased. If realized, this development would inject additional supply into an already fragile market.

Given Russia’s status as a major player within OPEC+, any incremental Russian output would alter global supply balances, likely accelerating downward pressure on prices. This anticipated increase in supply offers a textbook example of an expected causal link: geopolitical relaxation directly leading to increased production and downward price pressure.

Short-Term Outlook: Continued Vulnerability

Absent new supportive catalysts, the short-term outlook for oil prices remains biased toward further declines. The looming increase in OPEC+ output, unresolved trade tensions, and potential easing of sanctions on Russia collectively create a heavy burden on market sentiment. In such a scenario, a retest of the $59.67 support level appears highly probable.

Unless geopolitical developments reverse or demand indicators show unexpected resilience, the downward trend is poised to persist. Short-term fluctuations aside, the structural imbalance between expected supply expansion and fragile demand will likely define price trajectories for the coming months.

Global oil prices are caught in a web of negative pressures stemming from anticipated supply growth, weakened demand forecasts, and a stronger dollar. While technical rebounds are possible, the underlying fundamental forces suggest a continued bearish bias unless market dynamics shift dramatically. Investors and policymakers alike will need to monitor both geopolitical signals and physical market data closely as the second half of 2025 approaches.

Source: AFP

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Damon

Economic

Stocks

Wall Street stocks showed little conviction on Monday and gold eased as market participants watched for signs of progress in tariff negotiations at the top of an eventful week of corporate earnings and economic data.

Weakness in the tech sectorheld the Nasdaq back, but gold lost ground and benchmark U.S. Treasury yields oscillated.

"The news has evened out," Thomas Martin, Senior Portfolio Manager at GLOBALT in Atlanta. "There's not really any news today that’s market-moving."

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday said many of the top U.S. trading partners have made "very good" tariff proposals, adding that China's recent moves to exempt certain U.S. goods from its retaliatory tariffs showed a willingness to de-escalate trade tensions between the world's two largest economies.

"We just keep on trying to dial into what the trade negotiations are going to be like," Martin added. "And it's this combination of public statements versus what's really going on behind the scenes."

Despite hopes for progress, economists polled by Reuters say the risk of global recession is high as a result of Trump's tariffs; the same group of economists expected the world economy to grow at a healthy clip a mere three months ago.

First quarter earnings season heats up this week, with Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Appleand Amazon.comamong the high-profile results on the docket.

While Monday was quiet with respect to U.S. economic data, the week is back-end loaded with closely watched indicators such as Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the Institute for Supply Management's purchasing managers' index (PMI), an advance take on U.S. GDP and the April employment report.

The Dow Jones Industrial Averagerose 146.72 points, or 0.40%, to 40,275.27, the S&P 500rose 6.25 points, or 0.11%, to 5,531.38 and the Nasdaq Compositefell 15.79 points, or 0.09%, to 17,367.15.

European shares gained ground on trade negotiation optimism.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globeEURONEXT:IACWIrose 3.46 points, or 0.42%, to 828.20.

The pan-European STOXX 600index rose 0.74%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 indexrose 14.58 points, or 0.71%.

Emerging market stocksCBOE:EFSrose 6.24 points, or 0.57%, to 1,103.34. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) closed higher by 0.58%, to 573.95, while Japan's Nikkeirose 134.25 points, or 0.38%, to 35,839.99.

The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notesfell 2.1 basis points to 4.245%, from 4.266% late on Friday. The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR) yield fell 2.8 basis points to 4.7099% from 4.738% late on Friday.

The 2-year note (US2YT=RR) yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, fell 2.6 basis points to 3.736%, from 3.762% late on Friday.

The dollar edged lower as investors awaited further trade talks progress and girded themselves for an eventful week.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.59% to 99.16, with the euroup 0.33% at $1.1398.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar weakened 0.68% to 142.69.

Sterlingstrengthened 0.76% to $1.3415. The Mexican pesoweakened 0.09% versus the dollar at 19.555.

The Canadian dollarstrengthened 0.21% versus the greenback to C$1.38 per dollar. Canadians are going to the polls on Monday after an election campaign in which U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs and musings about annexing Canada became the central issue.

Crude oil softened as investors weighed a potential supply increase from OPEC+ amid ongoing trade uncertainties.

U.S. crudefell 0.94% to $62.43 a barrel and Brentfell to $66.17 per barrel, down 1.05% on the day.

Gold prices advanced in opposition to the easing greenback.

Spot goldrose 0.27% to $3,327.19 an ounce. U.S. gold futures (GCc1) rose 0.06% to $3,284.50 an ounce.

Source: TradingView

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Grace Montgomery

Central Bank

Economic

(April 28): European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos said that volatile financial markets must be watched closely amid the risk of declines spiralling out of control.

Speaking to European Parliament lawmakers in Brussels on Monday, he warned that despite a resilient banking system in the region, officials can't take anything for granted.

“The recent trade policy upheaval has triggered the most significant financial market turmoil since the pandemic,” Guindos said. “These developments warrant careful monitoring. Sharp adjustments in financial markets could become disorderly, particularly if they are amplified by the growing size and influence of non-bank financial institutions.”

The ECB's No 2 official spoke in the same week that Donald Trump will mark 100 days in the White House, a period of turmoil for stocks that has put the S&P 500 Index on track for its worst run during a US president's first 100 days since Gerald Ford in 1974.

“While euro area banks’ valuations have also been affected, their fundamentals remain robust and they are well-positioned to withstand potential shocks thanks to their sizeable capital and liquidity buffers,” said Guindos, who is the Executive Board member in charge of financial stability.

Even so, he said there are lingering threats officials need to take in account aside from financial-market stress.

“Trade conflicts could pose challenges for both households and corporates, translating into rising credit risk for banks and non-banks alike,” he said. “A combination of weaker growth and heightened spending needs could increase pressures on government finances.”

Speaking separately, Governing Council member Olli Rehn struck a similar note, saying that officials are watching the situation intently.

“While markets have been able to weather the recent volatility and are functioning well, we of course monitor the events closely and stand ready to use all instruments that are necessary in order to preserve price stability and financial stability,” he said.

Answering a question on the economic and fiscal implications of higher German spending, Guindos suggested he's more focused on any risk stemming from US Treasuries.

“I could be much more concerned about the increase in yields and the potential implications from an increase in yields in the US, because I think that the full decoupling is not easy,” he said. “I think that, at the end, is going to depend mainly on fiscal policy in the US.”

In his remarks to lawmakers on the ECB's 2024 annual report, Guindos also reiterated the central bank's stance that it is data dependent, will take decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis and won’t commit to a particular path for interest rates.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Global markets rebounded last week on a broad-based rally amid signs of de-escalation in the US-China trade war. Investors will continue to monitor major economic data this week, including the eurozone’s monthly inflation figures and the United States’ jobs report.

Additionally, major US technology companies, including Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple, are set to report their quarterly earnings. The market will particularly focus on Apple, as the company may face challenges stemming from the trade war.

What to watch in Europe

The eurozone is scheduled to release its flash Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April this Friday. Annual inflation in the Eurozone fell to 2.2% in March, easing from 2.3% in the previous month and marking the lowest level since November 2024. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, also cooled to 2.4% from 2.6% in February, the slowest pace since October 2021. Consumer prices declined across most major European economies, including Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, and Belgium. However, inflation remained steady in France and accelerated in Italy in March. Major economies, including Spain, Germany, France, and Italy, will also release preliminary inflation and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the first quarter. The GDP growth data will be critical for gauging the eurozone’s economic trajectory.

Consensus suggests that eurozone inflation may continue retreating to 2.1% in April, although core CPI is expected to rise slightly to 2.5%. Nonetheless, consumer prices appear on track to return to the European Central Bank (ECB)’s 2% target.

ECB President Christine Lagarde recently stated that the disinflation process in the eurozone is nearly complete and the bank will continue its “data-dependent” approach regarding interest rate decisions. However, US tariffs have deteriorated the region’s economic outlook, requiring the ECB to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy stance. Officials at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted last week that the negative impact of US tariffs on the eurozone’s economic outlook is more significant than the positive effect of the bloc’s fiscal reforms.

The ECB has cut interest rates seven times since June last year, bringing the key deposit rate down to 2.25%. Analysts expect the bank to reduce the rate once more in June and maintain it at 2% for the remainder of the year.

What to watch in the United States

In the US, first-quarter GDP figures and April’s non-farm payrolls will be the focal points for financial markets. The American economy added 228,000 jobs in March, far exceeding expectations, although the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1% due to a higher participation rate. Stronger-than-expected job growth eased concerns that the US was falling into recession earlier in April. However, with tariffs now taking effect—albeit at a lower rate for most countries—the economic impact could become more pronounced, making the latest job data critical for market sentiment. Consensus estimates suggest 129,000 jobs were added to the labour force in April, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.2%.

The US will also release its advance GDP estimate for the first quarter, with economists forecasting a sharp slowdown as tariff-driven economic uncertainty bites. Expectations are for the economy to have grown by only 0.3%, compared with 2.4% in the final quarter of last year. Furthermore, the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, will also be closely watched.

As for Apple’s fiscal second-quarter earnings, the company is expected to report 4% year-on-year revenue growth and a 5% annual increase in earnings. Sales may have been bolstered ahead of tariffs taking effect, especially as Trump exempted electronic products from the 125% tariffs on China. However, Apple still faces 20% import duties on goods manufactured in China, where it produces most of its products. The company reportedly plans to shift all US-sold iPhone production to India by the end of 2026.

What to watch in the Asia-Pacific region

In the Asia-Pacific region, attention will centre on the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) rate decision this week. The BOJ is expected to keep interest rates steady amid mounting economic concerns linked to US tariffs. Governor Kazuo Ueda stated last week that the bank would continue raising rates if underlying inflation moves towards its 2% target. However, he noted that tariffs would likely impact the stability of consumer prices and weigh on economic growth.

Elsewhere, investors will closely watch China’s manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for April and Australia’s first-quarter CPI, both due for release on Wednesday.

Source: Euronews

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Glendon

Political

Economic

Political bettors on Polymarket and other platforms are paying attention to Canada as the nation heads to the polls.

As the country's 45th election comes to a close, a contract asking bettors to predict who will be Canada's next Prime Minister gives the Liberal Party's Mark Carney a 78% chance, and the Conservatives' Pierre Poilievre a 22% shot.

Prediction Markets Traders Bet Big on Easy Liberal Win As Canadians Head to The Polls_1

(Polymarket)

Political bettors are slightly more skeptical of Carney's chances of winning than the polls, but both are pointing in the same direction. A poll aggregator from public broadcaster CBC puts Carney's chances at 89%.

Prediction Markets Traders Bet Big on Easy Liberal Win As Canadians Head to The Polls_2

(CBC)

Myriad Markets, another prediction market, is giving Carney similar odds to Polymarket.

Prediction Markets Traders Bet Big on Easy Liberal Win As Canadians Head to The Polls_3

(Myriad.Markets)

FanDuel, a licensed betting platform open only to residents of Ontario, Canada, initially gave the Conservatives a sharp, contrarian lead of 70%, according to a report from the National Post. Still, odds have fallen in line with prediction markets, and it now gives the Liberals a roughly 80% chance of winning.

Unlike the U.S. election, there isn't a crypto angle up north with leaders' campaigns focused on the trade war and inflation.

Too Big to Rig?

A growing narrative in certain corners of the internet is that Polymarket is prone to manipulation and its numbers aren't reliable, criticisms that echo what was said in the last weeks of the U.S. election when the site gave Donald Trump a commanding lead as polls showed a tight race.

Critics say Poilievre's chances are being suppressed and do not reflect the political sentiment of the populace.

However, manipulating prediction markets would be expensive, and there's no credible evidence that this is happening even as Polymarket is banned in Canada's largest province after a settlement with its securities regulator.

Data portal Polymarket Analytics shows that the Canadian election contract leads the platform in open interest, which is the total value of active, unsettled bets and a good measure of market engagement.

Prediction Markets Traders Bet Big on Easy Liberal Win As Canadians Head to The Polls_4

(Polymarket Analytics)

Market data also shows that position holding is quite distributed, with the largest holder of the Poilivere—No side of the contracting holding 6% of all shares and the largest holder of the Carney—Yes side holding 5%.

Prediction Markets Traders Bet Big on Easy Liberal Win As Canadians Head to The Polls_5

(Polymarket Analytics)

One bettor, who is betting big on Carney with a six-figure position, who spoke to CoinDesk, said their motives are non-partisan, and said that the quality of Canadian polling makes him confident that the Liberals will win.

"Poilievre needs a 7-point polling error to win and I think the probability of that is closer to 7% than his current market price of 23c," trader Tenadome told CoinDesk via an X DM. "The pool of Poilievre bettors seems to largely be very dumb money that believes in things like China is rigging the polls."

Currently, the trader with the largest winnings on the contract is "ball-sack" with a profit of $124,890, thanks to bets on Carney. On the other side of the trade is "biden4prez," who lost just over $98,000 – the most out of any trader – betting on Poilievre and against Carney.

Source: CoinDesk

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Adam

Stocks

China–U.S. Trade War

Investors regained their appetite for risk this week as Donald Trump signaled he might significantly reduce tariffs on China and showed no intention of firing Jerome Powell. Stock markets rallied sharply, driven by a surge in U.S. tech stocks and some strong corporate earnings in Europe. Volatility also eased somewhat as expectations for a potential Fed rate cut grew. Positive signs, even if the future remains uncertain.

This week's gainers and losers

TOPS

SAP +8.27%: The German software company reported excellent first-quarter results. SAP is benefiting from the boom in artificial intelligence, with cloud revenue up 26%. The company also confirmed its full-year targets.

Accor +10.96%: The hotel group posted strong first-quarter results, driven by growth in its luxury and lifestyle segment, where revenue per available room (RevPar) rose 8.3%. Accor also reaffirmed its medium-term goals.

Alphabet +7.14%: After weeks of concerns around major U.S. tech stocks, Alphabet’s first-quarter results reassured investors. A key driver was advertising revenue, which grew 9.8% year-over-year. Alphabet also confirmed plans to invest $75 billion in AI infrastructure in 2025.

Bayer +9.32%: The agrochemical and pharmaceutical group is trying to regain momentum. It plans to launch two new molecules and two new indications in 2025 to offset the patent expiration of Xarelto. Bayer hopes to return to growth in its pharmaceutical division by 2027.

FLOPS

Northrop Grumman -12.43%: The U.S. defense company’s results disappointed investors after it raised the cost estimate for B-21 bomber production. As a result, Northrop Grumman booked a $477 million pre-tax charge.

Thales -7.59%: Despite a 70% stock price increase year-to-date, the French defense group’s latest results received a lukewarm market reaction. While sales beat expectations, orders fell 27% year-over-year, partly weighed down by the defense segment.

Reckitt -5.64%: The British consumer goods giant missed expectations with weaker-than-expected organic growth and declines in Europe and North America. As it reorganizes around its core brands, Reckitt plans to sell its Essential Home (household care) division, but analysts are skeptical about finding a buyer.

Weekly market update: Risk appetite is making a comeback in the stock market_1

Commodities

Energy:

Oil prices failed to rebound this week, moving against the broader rally in risk assets. Prices remain under pressure due to concerns about potential overproduction from OPEC+ and its allies. Internal tensions—particularly with Kazakhstan exceeding its production quotas—have fueled discussions about possible supply increases, which could worsen an already fragile market amid stagnant or declining demand forecasts. OPEC has revised down its global demand growth forecast for 2025, citing trade tensions and U.S. tariffs. Meanwhile, progress in nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran could boost oil supply and reduce the geopolitical risk premium. In the background, talks of easing tariffs between the U.S. and China could eventually support demand, as they are the world’s two largest oil consumers. However, current price declines reflect ongoing fears of a global economic slowdown and potential oversupply. Brent is trading lower at $64.75 per barrel, while WTI stands at $61.90.

Metals:

Copper prices rose in London to $9,382 per ton (spot price), supported by hopes of easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. However, lingering demand concerns and a strengthening U.S. dollar led to some pullback later in the week. Gold briefly hit a new record high at $3,500 an ounce this week, boosted by fears of a potential attempt by Trump to remove the Federal Reserve chair, driving safe-haven demand. Although gold prices eased slightly as trade tensions and Fed fears cooled, the metal remains up 25% year-to-date, supported by strong inflows into gold ETFs and increased central bank buying.

Agricultural Commodities:

In Chicago, wheat prices fell to 546 cents per bushel as rains across the U.S. Plains helped ease concerns about crop conditions. In Europe, the European Commission lowered its wheat production forecast for 2025/26 to 126.3 million tons but raised its stockpile estimate to 8.5 million tons for the same period. Elsewhere, coffee and cocoa prices surged over the past five days—up about 11% and 9%, respectively—driven by strong consumer demand for coffee and chocolate-based products.

Weekly market update: Risk appetite is making a comeback in the stock market_2

Macroeconomics

Market Mood:

It comes and goes. The ongoing tariff saga continues to drive financial markets, with constant twists and turns. While major global indices have managed to perform relatively well amid signs of easing tensions between the U.S. and China, bond yields remain more skeptical, struggling to retreat despite reassuring messages from the Trump administration. Investor confidence in dollar-denominated assets has been badly shaken, and concrete proof of a true normalization in international trade will likely be needed before risky assets regain full favor.The U.S. 10-year yield hovered around 4.274%. Meanwhile, the VIX eased back to 26.7 points, returning to early April levels.

Crypto:

On the regulatory front, change is in the air in Washington. U.S. banking authorities, including the Federal Reserve, have quietly shelved several cautious guidelines concerning banks' exposure to cryptocurrencies—part of a broader pro-crypto shift under the Trump administration. This move gives the sector a little breathing room, though it also reignites debate over the systemic risks these assets might still pose.

Meanwhile, continental Europe remains skeptical. In Switzerland, the central bank firmly refuses to add bitcoin to its reserves. Despite an ongoing referendum campaign and activist pressure promoting bitcoin as a hedge against geopolitical tensions, the Swiss National Bank is standing its ground.

That hasn't stopped bitcoin from surging to around $94,000 by the end of the week, up 10% compared to last Sunday. Meanwhile, the so-called "Trump" cryptocurrency tumbled—despite offering its main holders an exclusive dinner invitation. Nothing is lost; everything is transformed.

Weekly market update: Risk appetite is making a comeback in the stock market_3

The planets have been forcibly realigned in the financial markets. Since Tuesday, stocks have regained some momentum. Driving the rebound: renewed hopes for trade negotiations, easing volatility, falling bond yields amid expectations of a Fed move, solid macroeconomic indicators, and generally resilient corporate earnings. The balance remains fragile, but the rally has held.

This week will be packed with key data releases. On Wednesday, first-quarter GDP figures will be published for France, Germany, and the eurozone, along with a flash estimate for Germany's April inflation and the U.S. PCE index for March. On Thursday, the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current rates. Finally, Friday will bring the release of the U.S. monthly jobs report, rounding out a busy calendar.

On the corporate side, earnings season is in full swing. In the U.S., heavyweights including Visa, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, and Eli Lilly are set to release their results. In Europe, companies like Schneider Electric, Novartis, Airbus, TotalEnergies, and UBS will report.