Donald Trump Will Win, Help Bitcoin Reach $150K In 2025

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Former President Trump to speak at Bitcoin 2024 amidst the House’s vote to delay Biden’s SEC veto.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has been confirmed as a keynote speaker at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee.

Bitcoin conference 2024

This prominent event, renowned as one of the largest Bitcoin conferences globally, is scheduled to take place from the 25th to the 27th of July.

The announcement was made by the conference organizers, ‘The Bitcoin Conference’, through an X (formerly Twitter) post, which stated, Donald Trump Will Win, Help Bitcoin Reach $150K In 2025_1

Donald Trump Will Win, Help Bitcoin Reach $150K In 2025_1

Voting postponed

This event coincides with the House of Representatives postponing their vote to override President Joe Biden’s veto on the SEC’s anti-crypto rule, SAB 121.

Originally set for the 10th of July, the vote has been rescheduled to the 11th of July, at approximately 10:30 AM.

The delay followed an urgent letter from President Biden, prompting the House to defer the vote. However, the specifics of the letter are still unknown.

Expressing frustration on the matter, Representative Patrick McHenry, a vocal critic of the SEC’s rule, stated, “We should not be doing business this way.”

Trump vs. Biden

These contrasting actions by the two presidential candidates highlight the divide among crypto voters.

On one side, Trump’s recent pro-crypto move aligns with his supportive stance, while on the other, Biden continues to take a harsh stance towards cryptocurrency as the election approaches.

Remarking on the same, The Bitcoin Therapist took to X and said, “Donald Trump is going to win the election and #Bitcoin is going to 150K next year. Nothing stops this train.”

Impact on memecoin and prediction market

This news also had a significant impact on the crypto meme market. At press time, Trump-inspired memecoin Doland Tremp was up by 2.4% in the past 24 hours.

Conversely, the Biden-inspired memecoin Jeo Boden was down by 16.7% in the same period, according to CoinGecko.

Additionally, Polymarket prediction market data on the “Presidential Election Winner 2024” showed Trump leading with 62%, while Biden dropped from 17% to 13%, less than Kamala Harris who stood at 14% in the past 24 hours.

Source:Ambcrypto

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Cohen

Stocks

Four out of every five stocks in the S&P 500 index climbed, though pullbacks for Nvidia, Microsoft and a handful of other highly influential companies masked that underlying strength. Those giants have been the market’s biggest winners amid a frenzy around artificial-intelligence technology, causing critics to say they had become too pricey, and they helped drag the S&P 500 down 0.9% from its all-time high set a day before.

The drops for Big Tech stocks also pulled the Nasdaq composite down 2% from its own record. The drops broke seven-day winning streaks for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which has less of an emphasis on tech, rose 32 points, or 0.1%.

The direction was decidedly upward for the majority of stocks on Wall Street, particularly housing-related companies, real-estate owners and others that benefit from easier interest rates. SBA Communications, which owns towers and other sites used for wireless communications infrastructure, jumped 7.5% for the biggest gain in the S&P 500.

Smaller companies that have lagged behind the market’s behemoths for a while were also strong, and the Russell 2000 index of smaller stocks leaped 3.6% to lead the market decisively. The shift is encouraging to some market watchers, who see it as healthier when more stocks are participating in a rising market instead of just an elite, dominant 1%.

The day’s action was even stronger in the bond market, where yields tumbled as traders built bets for the Federal Reserve to soon begin lowering its main interest rate. It’s been sitting for nearly a year at its highest level in more than two decades.

Wall Street wants lower interest rates to release pressure that’s built up on the economy because of how expensive it’s become to borrow money to buy houses, cars or anything on credit cards. Fed officials, though, have been saying they want to see “more good data” on inflation before making a move.

Wall Street saw Thursday’s report, which showed milder price increases than expected from a year earlier for gasoline, cars and other things U.S. consumers bought during June, as providing just that.

“One word: pivotal,” said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector investing within Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “With three inflation prints between this morning and September’s Fed meeting, today’s print was crucial in helping the Fed gain confidence inflation is still moving in the right direction.”

Following the report’s release, Treasury yields tumbled immediately. The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped to 4.20% from 4.28% late Wednesday and from 4.70% in April. That’s a major move for the bond market and provides a big lift for stock prices.

Lower yields helped real-estate owners and utilities lead the way in the stock market. Falling bond yields make those stocks’ relatively high dividends more attractive to investors seeking income.

Real-estate investment trusts in the S&P 500, including SBA Communications, jumped 2.7% for the biggest gain among the 11 sectors that make up the index. Utility stocks were close behind with a gain of 1.8%.

Homebuilders were also strong on hopes that lower mortgage rates will juice the industry. D.R. Horton climbed 7.3%, and Lennar rose 6.9% for some of the biggest gains in the S&P 500. Mohawk Industries, which makes flooring for homes, jumped 7.4%.

Besides hopes for coming cuts to interest rates, expectations for strong profit growth have also pushed the U.S. stock market to its records. Analysts expect S&P 500 companies to deliver their best overall growth in more than two years this upcoming reporting season, according to FactSet, but it’s getting off to a mixed start.

Delta Air Lines lost 4% after reporting slightly weaker revenue and profit for the spring than analysts expected. The airline said demand is strong for summer travel, but it also gave a profit forecast for the current quarter that fell short of Wall Street’s estimates.

Tesla fell 8.4% to give back some of the gains from an 11-day romp where the electric-vehicle maker’s stock had soared 44%. It and all the other stocks in the group that’s come to be known as the “Magnificent Seven” fell for the day.

Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla have been behind the bulk of the S&P 500’s returns for more than a year because their fortunes seemed to rise regardless of the economy’s strength or where interest rates were.

All told, the S&P 500 fell 49.37 points to 5,584.54. The Dow rose 32.39 to 39,753.75, and the Nasdaq composite dropped 364.04 to 18,283.41.

In stock markets abroad, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.9% to set another all-time high. Indexes were also strong across much of the rest of Asia and Europe.

Source:AP

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FastBull Featured

Data Interpretation

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the June CPI data on July 11.

Headline CPI rose 3% year-on-year in June, lower than the expected 3.1%. It declined 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first negative reading since May 2020.

Core CPI rose 3.3% YoY in June, the lowest level since April 2021, also lower than the expected 3.4%. It was up 0.1% on a MoM basis, being its lowest level since August 2021.

Airline fares, used cars and trucks, as well as communications service indices all declined over the month. The housing index rose 0.2% and the rent index increased 0.3%. The gasoline index fell 3.8% in June, following a 3.6% decline in May, offsetting the impact of higher housing prices. It was the main reason for the slowdown in June CPI. Housing inflation, especially rental prices, has been key to the reduction in core inflation. The fall in housing price increases this time sent a positive signal to the market.

The June inflation eased more than the market expected, continuing the recent trend of slowing price increases. It further proves that inflation has resumed its downward trend after the "bumps" seen at the beginning of the year, paving the way for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September.

At the same time, the unemployment rate climbed to 4.1% from 3.7% seen at the end of last year, according to last week's non-farm payrolls report and Powell's congressional testimony this week, which further confirmed the cooling of the labor market. The potential source of high inflation has waned. Moreover, with the recent continuous weakness in the U.S. economic data, the need for the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September has grown. Once the Fed begins to cut interest rates, the probability of two rate cuts this year will increase as well.

U.S. June Inflation Report

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Alex

Economic

RBI governor Shaktikanta Das on Thursday indicated that interest rates may remain higher for longer. With a 4.75% rise in retail inflation in May, Das said that inflation numbers for June - which will be announced on Friday - are expected to be close to 5%, according to surveys. "When we are at 5% and our target is 4%, I think it is premature to talk about interest rate cuts," Das said in an interview with CNBC.

The governor also said that rate cuts would adversely affect 'silent depositors'. Typically, there is a clamour for rate cuts from borrowers.Das emphasised on the cautious approach, saying that while some central banks provide guidance on when a rate cut is likely, the issue globally and in India is the prevailing uncertainty. He expressed his reluctance to give any forward guidance that might mislead market players, and said, "I would rather not give any forward guidance which would lead market players to board the wrong train." The approach intends to provide stability and reassurance to the market. The adverse impact of a rate cut on depositors is a new issue confronting RBI. The central bank had expressed concerns over bank advances outpacing deposit growth, which remained sluggish. Business figures reported by banks in the first quarter indicate that deposit growth has not picked up much.

Besides inflation and the adverse impact on deposits, the third factor that might prevent RBI from cutting rates is the high growth rate. Das said that the high growth momentum of Q4 FY24 had continued and was maintained in the first quarter.On the steady exchange rate, Das attributed the rupee's resilience to its macroeconomic fundamentals, which have been much stronger than they were a few years ago. "It has more to do with our stable fundamentals than anything else. RBI only manages volatility," said Das. He also added that it is the strong fundamentals that justify a ratings upgrade by international rating agencies. "It should have happened earlier... While rating does play a role, many large investors do their own analysis and markets are ahead of rating agencies," said Das.

Economists attribute a significant portion of the rise in CPI to unstable commodities, especially food items. Although food price inflation is not caused by demand-related factors, RBI can only address this by increasing interest rates to prevent widespread inflationary expectations. In this quarter, besides food prices, a rise in telecom tariffs could also add to price pressures.After hiking interest rates in Feb 2023, RBI has left rates unchanged for 16 months now. Many expect it to cut rates by Dec this year to maintain the spread between US and Indian rates. However, if RBI does not cut rates this year, it would be its longest pause since MPC started setting rates in 2016.

Source：Times Of India

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Daily News

[Quick Facts]

1. Fed's Daly says the focus is on the labor market.

2. Inflation cools in swing states beneficial for Biden.

3. Fed's Goolsbee says June CPI shows inflation on path to 2%.

4. Japanese yen surges, ringing intervention alarm bells.

5. U.S. initial jobless claims decline more than expected.

6. U.S. inflation boosts rate cut expectations, but caution is needed against excessive optimism.

[News Details]

Fed's Daly says the focus is on the labor market

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Thursday that the recent fall in inflation data has been a "relief". Price pressures and the labor market are expected to slow further, providing a rationale for a rate cut.

"With the information we have received today, which includes data on employment, inflation, growth, and the outlook for the economy, I see it as likely that policy adjustments, some policy adjustments, will be warranted," Daly said.

With inflation likely to cool further, though with potentially "bumpy" progress, the economy seems to be heading "more or less" to where one or two interest rate cuts this year as projected in the June Fed policymaker forecasts "would be the appropriate path," she said.

Since the beginning of the year, the likelihood of inflation accelerating has been reduced, but inflation is still likely to remain elevated. The Fed is unlikely to cut rates as quickly as it raises them. The question is no longer whether policy is restrictive, but when we loosen the reins.

It's a fairly big communications signal that you hear so many of us now, and Chair Powell importantly, talking about how important the labor market is, and no longer only about the need to bring down inflation.

Inflation cools in swing states beneficial for Biden

Inflation rates fell last month in major cities across three swing states that will help decide the outcome of US elections, amid a nationwide moderation in prices that could aid President Joe Biden's campaign. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and his party are seeking to make inflation a major issue in swing state campaigns as polls show price increases since the pandemic worsened voters' views of the economy. An improvement in inflation in June, driven by falling housing costs, could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Falling inflation in swing states could also aid Biden's campaign. According to the latest surveys, Biden trails Trump in Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona and leads in Michigan.

Fed's Goolsbee says June CPI shows inflation on path to 2%

The latest inflation data is "very good" and leads me to believe that the Fed is on track toward its 2% target, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said on Thursday. He is closely watching housing inflation to determine when interest rates should be cut.

"The reason to tighten in real terms would be if you thought the economy was overheating. This is not in my view what an overheating economy looks like," said Goolsbee.

Goolsbee is open to a pause or another rate cut after the first cut, noting that rate changes will depend on inflation data.

Japanese yen surges, ringing intervention alarm bells

Shortly after the release of the U.S. CPI data, the USDJPY exchange rate experienced sharp volatility, once soaring by nearly 3% to 157.44, the largest single-day gain since late 2022. The market first thought it was attributed to the weak US CPI data, but then there was widespread speculation about whether Japanese authorities had intervened in the market to support the yen.

Japan's Vice Finance Minister Masato Kanda said that he could not immediately confirm whether the intervention had taken place, adding that the government would disclose it at the end of the month if it did. But late in the evening, an unnamed Japanese government official told the media that the Japanese authorities did intervene in the currency market on July 11, with the aim of boosting the yen.

U.S. initial jobless claims decline more than expected

U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 17,000 to 222,000 in the week ended July 6, the lowest level since the end of May, according to data from the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday. The initial claims data included the Independence Day holiday, and the data tend to fluctuate around holidays. Moreover, automakers typically close assembly plants in the week of July 4 to restructure them, though the timing can vary from manufacturer to manufacturer, which could cause the models the government uses to smooth out seasonally volatile data to fail. While this could disturb the initial jobless claims data, there are growing signs that the labor market is losing steam as economic activity has cooled down after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates sharply in 2022 and 2023.

U.S. inflation boosts rate cut expectations, but caution is needed against excessive optimism

U.S. CPI rose by 3% year-on-year in June. It dropped by 0.1% from a month earlier, marking the first decline since May 2020. The core CPI increased 3.3% year-on-year, the lowest level since April 2021. It was up 0.1% from a month earlier.

Housing, auto insurance, home improvement, health care and personal care were the main drivers, while prices of airline fares, used cars and trucks, and communication services declined. Particularly, the gasoline price index fell by 3.8% in June, following a 3.6% decline in May, a drop that can offset the impact of higher housing prices.

This report clearly points to the positive signals that the market has been waiting for: Inflation is gradually coming down and there are no clear signs of other factors that could have a major impact on the economy.

The previous cooling labor market coupled with the current inflation report may have strengthened expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower rates in September. They also provide more time for the Fed to consider one more cut before the end of the year.

However, the market seems to be a little over-optimistic, with expectations of five rate cuts over the next 12 months. It is unlikely that inflation will improve enough next year to support such many rate cuts.

[Today's Focus]

UTC+8 20:30 U.S. PPI (Jun)

UTC+8 22:00 U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Prelim (Jul)

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Samantha Luan

Economic

China’s economy showed mixed signals in June with consumer prices rising modestly for the fifth straight month but missing expectations, while producer prices stayed in deflationary territory.

These developments come ahead of an important policy meeting of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) next week. The focus of the July 15-18 CCP meeting is expected to prioritize addressing tensions with Washington and boosting domestic demand.

According to official data released on Wednesday by the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s consumer price index (CPI) edged up by 0.2 percent in June, marking the slowest pace in three months.

This growth was slower than the 0.3 percent increase observed in May and fell below economists’ forecasts of a 0.4 percent rise.

The slower-than-expected CPI growth suggests that consumer demand within China remains subdued.

On the other hand, the producer price index (PPI), which measures the prices businesses receive for their goods and services, contracted by 0.8 percent in June.

Although this decline was an improvement from the 1.4 percent contraction in May, it marks the third consecutive month of deflation in producer prices.

This persistent deflation in the PPI reflects ongoing challenges in China’s industrial sector, which continues to grapple with overcapacity and weak global demand.

“We still see some upside to inflation in the coming months given that the economy is in the midst of a cyclical recovery. However, the deepening declines in factory-gate prices of consumer durables underscore that excess manufacturing capacity remains a worsening issue,” said Gabriel Ng, Assistant Economist at Capital Economics.

“Government policy is still prioritising investment which is set to exacerbate the problem further. This will continue to weigh on inflation and we think CPI will rise just 0.5 percent y/y this year.”

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.6 percent year-on-year in June, slightly slower than the 0.7 percent rise recorded in the first half of the year.

This slower core inflation indicates that underlying price pressures remain contained, despite efforts to stimulate economic activity.

China’s economy faces several headwinds, including deflationary pressures and a property market crisis, which have dampened overall economic sentiment.

Economists remain cautious about the country’s growth prospects, especially as China targets a modest growth rate of around 5 percent for the year amid persistent economic uncertainties.

Despite these challenges, China’s central bank has signalled its commitment to maintaining accommodative monetary policies.

The People’s Bank of China has reduced banks’ required reserve ratios, aiming to inject liquidity into the financial system and support lending to businesses and consumers.

This policy stance is seen as crucial in mitigating the impact of economic headwinds and supporting China’s gradual economic recovery.

Investors are closely watching for further monetary policy measures from the central bank, anticipating additional easing actions to bolster economic growth and stabilize financial markets in the face of ongoing uncertainties both domestically and globally.

“Soft inflation and weak credit data are presenting a compelling case for further monetary policy easing from the PBOC in the coming months,” said Lynn Song, Chief Economist, Greater China at ING.

“While we believe the PBOC has likely held back on cuts in order to avoid adding to RMB depreciation pressure, we expect to see 1-2 rate cuts in the second half of the year, with a stronger case for cuts if the Fed begins its rate cut cycle.”

Source:Oilprice

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Alex

Economic

Last week’s general election not only underscores the political stability of the UK, it also exemplifies its economic strengths. Compared to polarisation in the US and a vanishing political centre in Europe, the UK stands out as a place to do business and a secure base from which to engage the world.

As the chief executive of a UK-based global bank, I know the data on the country’s consumer strength and stability is compelling. I hear supportive opinions from sophisticated international financial counterparties. In February, I announced Barclays' largest ever investment into the UK with the acquisition of Tesco’s banking arm and a significant increase in lending appetite within our UK consumer and corporate businesses.

My interactions with chancellor Rachel Reeves and her team lead me to believe that the new government is ambitious about securing growth and investment to strengthen the industrial, technological and financial prowess of the UK. Reeves has indicated her intention of boosting economic growth before committing to public spending increases. With limited fiscal room given a debt-to-GDP ratio of 98, however, and with sterling no longer a reserve currency, it is vital that the UK harness private finance to support investment and growth.

This is simple to say, but challenging to achieve. I have three suggestions which may help. First, the UK needs to view its financial services sector as a strategic asset held in the national interest, as the US does. Our banks, asset managers and private equity companies project hard power on the global stage as enablers of finance and investment flows. Equally, the concentration of foreign owned financial firms in London speaks to the importance of the City as a source of expertise and a haven of transparency and strong regulation. The recent acquisition of Preqin, a financial data provider, by the US behemoth BlackRock for £2.55bn shows the strength of financial innovation here.

The UK must be clear-eyed about its interests and know how best to further them. We should be proud of our financial regulatory regime. Equally, it is important to signal the stabilisation of capital rules (Basel 3.1) and consumer regulation, particularly in its scope, retrospective application and the role of the Financial Ombudsman. Not only do financial services account for 12 per cent of GDP and more than 2mn jobs but the sector drives UK economic growth. Moving on from the post-crisis regulatory focus on stability, which was and remains economically essential, enabling growth must now be the focus of regulators as well as business.

Second, we need to recover our equity culture. Over the past 20 years emerging UK technology companies such as Darktrace have been acquired by private equity, or lured to list in New York. The LSE is populated by older, dividend-paying value stocks — such as Barclays — when we should be fighting for our place with climate tech, meditech and other growth sectors. Pensions reform to support investment in growth equity, together with streamlining listing requirements, could unlock institutional money — and would be boosted by removing stamp duty on share purchases over £1,000 and reducing taxes on dividend income.

Third, the benefits of a revived equity culture must not be limited to the corporate world but unlocked to serve individual savers. We estimate more than £430bn of investible cash savings, including cash Isas, are held by 13mn bank customers. Resuming the sale of government shares in NatWest would be an important signal on public share ownership; the new government should get behind mobilising surplus liquidity in deposit accounts into share ownership. Bold regulatory reform is required to enable the provision of guidance to consumers whose money should be put to work for them.

The current regulatory approach perversely increases the risk of mis-selling from unregulated advice, including self-appointed “experts” on social media, leaving consumers vulnerable to fraud and scams. New investors need to be able to turn to trusted advisers, including banks. Modernisation and simplification of the confusing Isa landscape should prioritise focusing tax incentives on the products that deliver the best investor outcomes. Successful UK capital markets should deliver higher returns for consumers as well as boost investment in the economy.

The economic potential of the UK is strong. With the combined efforts of the public and private sector — and some modest changes in mindset and regulatory strictures — this country will enhance its reputation as a beacon of stability and growth in a world that is looking for one.