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SYMBOL
LAST
BID
ASK
HIGH
LOW
NET CHG.
%CHG.
SPREAD
SPX
S&P 500 Index
6870.39
6870.39
6870.39
6895.79
6858.28
+13.27
+ 0.19%
--
DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
47954.98
47954.98
47954.98
48133.54
47871.51
+104.05
+ 0.22%
--
IXIC
NASDAQ Composite Index
23578.12
23578.12
23578.12
23680.03
23506.00
+72.99
+ 0.31%
--
USDX
US Dollar Index
98.890
98.970
98.890
98.960
98.730
-0.060
-0.06%
--
EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar
1.16506
1.16513
1.16506
1.16717
1.16341
+0.00080
+ 0.07%
--
GBPUSD
Pound Sterling / US Dollar
1.33248
1.33257
1.33248
1.33462
1.33136
-0.00064
-0.05%
--
XAUUSD
Gold / US Dollar
4207.34
4207.77
4207.34
4218.85
4190.61
+9.43
+ 0.22%
--
WTI
Light Sweet Crude Oil
59.332
59.362
59.332
60.084
59.247
-0.477
-0.80%
--

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Morgan Stanley Reiterates Bullish Outlook On US Stocks Due To Fed Rate Cut Expectations. Morgan Stanley Strategists Believe That The US Stock Market Faces A "bullish Outlook" Given Improved Earnings Expectations And Anticipated Fed Rate Cuts. They Expect Strong Corporate Earnings By 2026, And Anticipate The Fed Will Cut Rates Based On Lagging Or Mildly Weak Labor Markets. They Expect The US Consumer Discretionary Sector And Small-cap Stocks To Continue To Outperform

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          Crypto ‌Scalp‌ing ‌Strategies‌: 5 Of The Most Popular Techniques

          FXOpen

          Cryptocurrency

          Forex

          Economic

          Summary:

          Cryptoсurrencies are known for their volatility. While that may put some traders off, it creates many potentially lucrative opportunities for those with significant experience who can react quickly.

          Cryptoсurrencies are known for their volatility. While that may put some traders off, it creates many potentially lucrative opportunities for those with significant experience who can react quickly. In this article, we’ll explore five of the most popular crypto scalping strategies and help you learn how to scalp crypto with a simple framework.

          What Does Scalping Mean in Crypto?

          As in any other financial market, cryptocurrency scalping refers to a type of trading where traders aim to take advantage of short-term market movements. This approach involves entering and exiting trades within minutes or even seconds, aiming to capitalise on small price fluctuations.

          Scalpers typically use high leverage and execute many trades to accumulate small returns over time. The objective is to make seemingly insignificant gains that add up rather than seeking larger, less frequent returns. Scalping is particularly popular in crypto trading, as digital assets are inherently volatile and experience extreme daily price changes.

          How easy is scalping in the cryptocurrency market? Compared to longer-term trading styles like swing or position trading, scalping requires more discipline, stronger risk management skills, and a solid understanding of market mechanics. As such, scalping is a more advanced technique and can be considered more complex than other styles. However, through practice, crypto scalping can become accessible.

          What Is the Best Time to Scalp Crypto?

          While crypto markets are open 24/7, volumes often pick up during regular trading hours for other markets. Generally, London and New York sessions, particularly their overlaps, are the most active, with plenty of volume and volatility for scalpers to take advantage of.

          In terms of the best timeframe for scalping in crypto, scalping is usually done on the 1-, 2-, or 3-minute charts. 5-minute and 15-minute charts are often used to help set a directional bias.

          Crypto Scalping: Unique Features

          Crypto scalping has some unique features that differentiate it from scalping in traditional financial markets like forex or stocks. They make crypto scalping both challenging and potentially rewarding, especially for traders who can navigate the fast-paced and unpredictable nature of the cryptocurrency markets.

          ● High Volatility. The crypto market is highly volatile, with prices frequently experiencing significant fluctuations within short timeframes. This volatility can provide numerous opportunities for scalpers but also cause challenges.
          ● 24/7 Market. Unlike traditional markets, the crypto market operates 24/7, allowing scalpers to trade at any time. This provides more flexibility but also requires constant monitoring, as opportunities can arise at any moment.
          ● Liquidity and Spread. Liquidity in the crypto market can vary greatly. Scalpers often focus on high-liquidity pairs where spreads are narrow, making it possible to execute quick trades with ease.
          ● Technological Tools. Crypto scalpers often use trading bots and algorithms to execute trades quickly and efficiently. The use of automated tools is more prevalent in crypto due to the rapid pace of the market. Also, scalpers rely heavily on technical analysis, utilising advanced charting tools and indicators specific to crypto markets. The
          ● Risk Management. Given the volatility, effective risk management is crucial in crypto scalping to protect against sudden adverse price movements.
          ● Regulatory Environment. The crypto market is less regulated than traditional markets, which can lead to increased risks, including market manipulation. Scalpers must be cautious and stay informed about the regulatory landscape.

          5 Cryptocurrency Scalping Strategies

          Let’s dive into particular strategies.

          1. Range Trading

          Range trading is a popular scalping strategy for cryptocurrencies. It involves identifying a specific consolidation range within which an asset is likely to fluctuate. Scalpers aim to buy at the lower end of the range (support) and sell at the upper bound (resistance).To get started with range trading, traders first need to identify a ranging market on a low timeframe, like the 1- or 5-minute charts. Then, they determine support and resistance levels near the strong highs and lows of the range. These levels then serve as entry and exit points, with a trader entering at support looking to exit at resistance and vice versa.

          Some will look for reversal candlestick patterns, like hammers or shooting stars, at support or resistance, respectively, before entering with a market order. Others will simply set limit orders at their chosen entry point.Stop losses are typically placed beyond the range’s high or low, depending on the direction of trade. Scalpers usually use a 1:1 risk/reward ratio or don’t place stop-loss orders, but the latter is a risky approach.

          2. Breakout Trading

          Breakouts occur when a level of support/resistance is broken through, often indicating the start or continuation of a trend. There are several ways you can take advantage of breakouts, but it’s not uncommon for a false breakout to occur. We can use a pullback filter to validate a trade.To start, we need to identify a support or resistance level. The easiest way is to look for relatively equal highs or lows forming, like in the chart above. When the level is broken with a strong impulsive move, we can enter on the close of the breakout candle. However, if the move isn’t particularly strong, like at a), then we could wait for a pullback. We can place a stop order to enter as the pullback itself breaks out, as marked by the dotted lines.

          Profits might be taken at an opposing support or resistance level. However, some scalpers may prefer to attempt to ride the trend and trail their stop loss above or below swing points as the trend progresses. Similarly, stop losses can be placed above or below the nearest swing points.

          3. Chart Patterns

          Chart patterns can be a powerful tool for scalping, helping traders to identify potential trend continuations and reversals. While there are many different chart patterns out there, it’s best to stick to just one or two to avoid confusion, at least until you master their use. We’ll use rising and falling wedges in this example, as they often lead to strong moves.There are two ways to enter: either on the breakout or on the retest of the broken trendline. As you can see in the example, entering retests might be a more accurate method, but it’ll mean you miss out on some trades. Conversely, entering on the breakout is riskier, as it could just as easily be a false breakout.

          Your profit target and stop loss will depend on the pattern you’re using. Given that wedges typically prompt a prolonged trend, you could look for significant areas of support/resistance to start taking profits. For a more conservative approach, you might take profit at a distance equal to the height of the wedge placed from the breakout point. Stop losses might be calculated in accordance with the 1:2 risk/reward ratio.

          4. Using the Relative Strength Index and Bollinger Bands

          Some scalpers rely heavily on technical indicators to help them determine entries and exits. One popular combination is the relative strength index (RSI) and Bollinger Bands.

          When the RSI crosses 70, indicating overbought conditions, or below 30, showing the asset is oversold, traders can look to confirm a reversal entry with Bollinger Bands. If an asset is overbought and crosses above the upper band, a short position can be considered. If the asset is oversold and the price breaches the lower band, a long position could be entered.

          As for exit conditions, some scalpers may prefer to take profits at the midpoint of the Bollinger Bands or the opposing band. Others take profit when RSI crosses above or below 50, depending on the direction of trade. In terms of stop losses, traders place them above or below a nearby area of support or resistance. Alternatively, they consider the take-profit target and place the stop loss, considering their risk aversion.

          5. Bid-Ask Spread

          The bid-ask spread refers to the gap between the maximum price a buyer can offer (bid) and the minimum price a seller can accept (ask) for a specific asset. Scalpers can take advantage of the bid-ask spread to potentially generate returns. This strategy can be particularly effective in less liquid cryptocurrencies where spreads are naturally wider.

          When spreads are wide, traders place buy orders and sell orders simultaneously. They buy at the lowest possible bid price and sell at the highest possible ask price. Traders using this strategy typically place limit orders rather than market orders. Limit orders allow them to specify the price at which they want to buy or sell, increasing the chance of capturing the spread. Since the return per trade is usually small, traders must execute many trades to achieve significant returns. This necessitates careful risk management to ensure that small losses don’t outweigh the small gains.

          How Can You Create Your Best Crypto Scalping Strategy?

          Now, it’s time to create your own scalping trading strategy for crypto. While your strategy will ultimately be unique to you and your preferences, you can try these steps to begin developing your own system.

          ● Choose a Timeframe: Select a short timeframe that suits your trading style, such as 1-, 3-, or 5-minute, to base your trades on. Try to balance choosing one that allows you to capitalise on short-term movements while giving you enough time to think through your decisions.
          ● Identify Support and Resistance Levels: Use trendlines to pinpoint potential entry and exit points. You can also look for psychological or dynamic levels if desired. Set a rule that you’ll only enter and exit at these levels to avoid impulsive decision-making.
          ● Employ Indicators: Use indicators like the RSI, moving averages, and Bollinger Bands to confirm your entries and exits. You can set specific criteria to help filter out potential losing trades, like only trading a resistance level when RSI is overbought.
          ● Develop a Risk Management Plan: Risk management is almost as important as your strategy itself. Use stop-loss orders and proper position sizing to manage potential losses and protect your capital. Set defined loss limits and rules for avoiding emotional decision-making.
          ● Test and Refine: Continuously backtest and optimise your strategy using past price action, and make adjustments as needed to improve its performance. It’s a good idea to keep a trading journal to record your trades and analyse your decision-making process.

          Pros and Cons of Scalp Trading in Cryptocurrencies

          Scalp trading in the cryptocurrency market has its advantages and disadvantages.

          Pros:

          ● Frequent Opportunities: The volatility of crypto can present more scalping opportunities compared to other assets, boosting the potential returns a scalper can make.
          ● Lower Long-Term Risks: The frequent in-out nature of scalping means that scalpers have less exposure to adverse market events, like regulatory changes or macroeconomic events.
          ● Psychologically Easier: For some traders, scalping is preferable since it allows them to bank small gains. This can be easier psychologically since there’s no anxious wait to see if a trade hits a longer-term target.

          Cons:

          ● Risk of Significant Losses: As mentioned, scalping requires discipline. Given the need for high leverage, poor risk management can wipe out a scalper’s account within a few trades if they aren’t strict with their strategy.
          ● Time-Consuming: Scalping requires constant monitoring of the market, which can be both time and energy-consuming. The ongoing need for quick decision-making may also be particularly draining for some traders.
          ● High Costs: The fees associated with frequent trading, like spreads and transaction costs, can eat into returns.

          Final Thoughts

          Crypto scalping can be a rewarding trading approach for those who can navigate its fast-paced and volatile nature. However, it’s crucial to remember that effective scalping requires more than just a good strategy. Traders must be disciplined, agile, and ready to react quickly to market changes. They should also have a deep understanding of the specific market conditions and tools available in the cryptocurrency space, including the use of automated bots and advanced charting software. Risk management is equally important, as the high leverage and frequent trades characteristic of scalping can lead to significant losses if not carefully controlled.

          FAQ

          What Is Scalping in Crypto?

          Scalping in crypto is a fast-paced trading strategy focused on making numerous trades throughout the day to capture small returns from minor price fluctuations. Scalpers hold positions for very short periods, sometimes just seconds or minutes, aiming to build up small gains that accumulate over time rather than seeking large returns from long-term positions.

          How Can You Scalp Crypto?

          Scalping crypto involves selecting a cryptocurrency with significant volatility and liquidity. Traders analyse short-term market trends using technical indicators to identify optimal entry and exit points. They often place limit orders to ensure trades are executed at specific price levels, aiming for small, frequent returns. Risk management is crucial, so traders use stop-loss orders to protect against unexpected price movements, while continuously monitoring the market to react quickly to changes.

          What Coin Is Best for Scalping?

          The best crypto to scalp typically has several key characteristics that make it suitable for quick, frequent trades. High liquidity is crucial, as it helps traders to enter and exit positions at the desired prices. A coin with a narrow bid-ask spread is also ideal, as it reduces the cost of each trade. Additionally, the coin should exhibit consistent price volatility, offering frequent small price movements that scalpers can capitalise on.

          Source: FXOpen

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Venture Capitalists' AI Services Transformation: An Overestimated Success?

          Gerik

          Economic

          The Vision of AI-Driven Efficiency

          Venture capitalists (VCs) have identified artificial intelligence (AI) as a key driver of transformation within service industries. They see the potential to enhance margins and automate labor-intensive processes by acquiring mature professional services firms and integrating AI. This strategy, being championed by firms like General Catalyst (GC), aims to use AI to create software-like efficiencies in sectors ranging from legal services to IT management. With billions in funds dedicated to AI-driven acquisitions, the stakes are high for both VCs and their portfolio companies.
          General Catalyst has committed $1.5 billion from its latest fund to incubate AI-native software companies that focus on specific verticals. These companies, in turn, acquire established firms and leverage AI to improve efficiency. With the global services industry generating $16 trillion in revenue annually compared to software’s $1 trillion, VCs are drawn to the allure of software-like margins in traditionally labor-intensive sectors. By automating significant portions of business tasks (up to 70% in some cases, such as call centers), AI’s scalability makes the investment particularly attractive.

          Initial Success Stories and Investment Strategies

          General Catalyst’s approach has already shown promise with companies like Titan MSP, which developed AI tools for managed service providers (MSPs). After investing $74 million, Titan acquired RFA, an established IT services firm. It demonstrated that AI could automate 38% of typical MSP tasks, promising higher margins for future acquisitions. Similarly, the firm’s investment in Eudia, which delivers AI-powered legal services, has resulted in strong client acquisition and expansion into the alternative legal service market. Through such roll-ups, GC aims to double the EBITDA margin of the companies it acquires.
          Mayfield Ventures has taken a similar approach with its $100 million "AI teammates" initiative. Its portfolio company, Gruve, successfully acquired a smaller security consulting firm and grew it rapidly while maintaining a high gross margin of 80%. Such examples reinforce the belief that AI’s efficiency potential is worth betting on, even in service sectors that have traditionally seen lower margins than software.

          Challenges: The Workslop Problem

          Despite the initial successes, concerns about the AI implementation process are starting to surface. A study by the Stanford Social Media Lab and BetterUp Labs revealed that 40% of employees are dealing with “workslop” AI-generated content that appears polished but is lacking in substance. Employees report spending an average of two hours dealing with workslop per instance, leading to wasted time and productivity loss. For larger organizations, this could mean a hidden cost of $9 million per year due to inefficiency. Such inefficiencies challenge the assumptions that AI can simply streamline operations and boost profitability.
          Marc Bhargava from General Catalyst contends that these early failures demonstrate the opportunity in AI for services. However, he emphasizes the technical sophistication required to successfully apply AI to these businesses. The need for highly specialized AI engineers who can navigate the intricacies of different AI models is critical. For example, AI technologies are not one-size-fits-all solutions, and effective implementation requires professionals who understand how to apply the right model to each specific business task. This complexity may explain why the AI transformation process is more challenging than anticipated.

          The Potential for Overestimated Profits

          While VCs hope to see enormous margin improvements by automating service businesses, “workslop” could undermine these projections. If companies reduce staffing to match the AI-enhanced efficiency, there may not be enough human oversight to catch errors generated by AI. Alternatively, maintaining current staffing levels to handle AI errors could erode the margin improvements that investors expect. These challenges suggest that the rapid scaling plans, integral to the roll-up strategy, may need to be reconsidered.
          Despite these complications, the long-term potential of AI in transforming service industries remains significant. As AI technology continues to improve, the scope for its application in diverse industries expands. General Catalyst’s strategy, which focuses on acquiring profitable businesses with established cash flow and then introducing AI, offers a less risky alternative to traditional VC models. While the AI service transformation is not without its hurdles, it is likely that VCs will continue to invest heavily in this area, driven by the ongoing advancements in AI technology and the potential for large-scale profitability.
          The challenge lies in the implementation and refinement of AI in these traditionally labor-intensive businesses. While some issues, like workslop, are immediate concerns, they do not entirely negate the transformative potential of AI. As AI technology evolves, so too will its capacity to drive service industries toward greater profitability albeit more slowly and with additional hurdles to overcome.
          In conclusion, AI has the potential to reshape traditionally service-based industries, but the path to success is far from simple. Venture capital firms must recognize the challenges inherent in implementing AI and adjust their strategies to account for the complexities involved in transforming these businesses. The next few years will be pivotal in determining whether AI’s promised efficiencies in the services industry can be realized without significant trade-offs.

          Source: TechCrunch

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Chinese Electric Car Market Faces Intense Competition and Overcapacity Crisis

          Gerik

          Economic

          The Rise and Fall of Ji Yue

          The collapse of Ji Yue, a promising Chinese EV startup backed by Baidu and Geely, highlights the brutal reality of China’s auto sector. Despite initial success, Ji Yue’s liquidity issues led to its downfall within six months, a cautionary tale in the cut-throat EV market. Ji Yue's failure added to the growing list of EV brands in China that have struggled to survive amidst oversaturation.
          China’s EV boom has resulted in nearly 500 domestic brands competing for market share, leading to “knock-out rounds,” according to industry experts. As competition grows, profit margins have plummeted. In 2024, the average profit margin for Chinese automakers dropped to 4.3%, down from 8% in 2017. Despite ongoing price wars, many companies are operating at a loss, relying on investment to cover deficits. This environment has led to significant cost-cutting measures, including reducing wages and using temporary workers, which has negatively impacted the quality of vehicle components.

          Impact on Suppliers and Innovation

          Suppliers are feeling the pressure of price cuts, with some being forced to offer discounts of up to 40% just to stay competitive. As a result, many suppliers are struggling to stay afloat due to extended payment cycles and shrinking margins. This has created a vicious cycle, where automakers focus on survival rather than innovation.
          In response to the chaotic competition, China’s government has implemented measures to curb overcapacity, such as issuing guidelines to regulate price wars and reduce the number of brands. However, industry experts remain skeptical about the effectiveness of these policies. Efforts to reduce capacity may lead to job losses, further complicating the issue.
          Despite domestic struggles, Chinese EV brands, including BYD, Chery, and Geely, are expanding globally. In 2024, China became the world’s largest exporter of cars, shipping nearly 6 million vehicles. However, this influx of low-priced cars has raised concerns abroad, with countries such as the EU, Mexico, and Canada imposing tariffs or restrictions.

          The Future of China’s EV Market

          The Chinese EV market is expected to continue its consolidation, with only a few dominant brands likely to survive in the long term. Industry leaders like Xpeng’s CEO, He Xiaopeng, predict that the "knock-out rounds" will last for another five years. The future of China’s EV industry hinges on how it addresses oversupply, price competition, and innovation challenges.
          The Chinese EV industry, while a global leader, is facing an intense domestic battle marked by oversupply, fierce price competition, and financial instability. Despite these challenges, the global expansion of Chinese EV brands continues, though international pushback remains a potential obstacle. The road ahead will require significant structural reforms to address overcapacity and sustain growth in both domestic and international markets.

          Source: CNN

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Trump Faces Setbacks in Securing Investment Pledges from Korea and Japan

          Gerik

          Economic

          South Korea's Concerns Over $350 Billion Investment

          South Korea’s National Security Adviser, Wi Sung-lac, expressed skepticism regarding the $350 billion investment pledge made by the country as part of a broader trade agreement with the U.S., calling it unrealistic. The agreement, which aims to reduce U.S. tariffs from 25% to 15%, has left both sides at odds over the specifics of how the funds should be structured. The sum is equivalent to over 80% of South Korea’s foreign reserves, and without a currency swap arrangement, the deal could have damaging effects on the country’s economy.
          Prime Minister Kim Min-seok highlighted that investment projects would be delayed until visa issues are resolved, and officials have been in talks with the U.S. regarding foreign exchange policies.

          Japan’s Caution on $550 Billion Investment Deal

          In Japan, the $550 billion investment deal also faces challenges, with top political figures signaling that the agreement could be renegotiated if it doesn’t benefit Japan. Sanae Takaichi, a key contender for the leadership of Japan’s ruling party, emphasized that Japan would "stand its ground" if any unfair terms arose during the implementation of the deal. Japan has agreed to provide the funds, but how the $550 billion will be funded remains unclear.
          The investment mechanism has raised concerns that only a small fraction of the amount will actually be invested, with the rest coming in the form of loans and guarantees. Japan’s Chief Trade Negotiator Ryosei Akazawa indicated that organizations like JBIC and NEXI, tasked with funding the investments, would not finance projects that do not benefit Japan.

          Possible Renegotiations and Tensions

          With political shifts in both South Korea and Japan, the future of these agreements remains uncertain. The upcoming elections in Japan will likely influence the country’s stance on this deal, while South Korea is exploring alternative methods to fulfill its commitments. As the two countries continue to navigate the intricacies of these investment pledges, President Trump’s trade policies could face more resistance in the coming weeks.
          The ongoing negotiations between the U.S., South Korea, and Japan highlight the complexities of securing international investment in exchange for trade concessions. Both countries are cautious about the heavy financial commitments, and the outcome of upcoming elections in Japan could determine the future direction of these agreements.

          Source: Bloomberg

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          U.S.-Japan Trade May Be Re-examined, France’s Debt Soars to $4 Trillion

          FastBull Featured

          Daily News

          [Quick Facts]

          1. The U.S. Government faces a shutdown threat, Trump will meet congressional leaders.
          2. UK Foreign Secretary hints Gaza Peace Deal is close.
          3. Leading LDP Candidate suggests revisiting the US-Japan Trade Deal.
          4. Global economic and trade frictions heat up again in July amid U.S. tariff policy shifts.
          5. France's public debt soars to $4 trillion, putting pressure on the New Prime Minister.
          6. Willing to resolve conflict through talks, holding some expectations for talks with U.S.
          7. Oil prices fall as the Kurdish Region restores crude exports and OPEC+ plans to boost output.

          [News Details]

          The U.S. Government faces a shutdown threat, Trump will meet congressional leaders
          Four congressional leaders are set to meet with President Donald Trump. According to two sources familiar with the matter, a meeting will take place at the White House on Monday as the threat of a government shutdown looms on October 1st. This will be the first discussion between Trump and Democratic leaders ahead of the funding deadline. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries had been expected to meet with the president this week, but the White House canceled the meeting at the last minute.
          In a joint statement on Saturday, Schumer and Jeffries said Democrats are committed to avoiding a government shutdown. "As we have repeatedly said, Democrats will meet anywhere, at any time, and with anyone to negotiate a bipartisan spending agreement that meets the needs of the American people. We are resolute in our determination to avoid a government shutdown and address the Republican healthcare crisis. Time is running out." Trump previously stated that Democrats must drop their demands to extend healthcare subsidies and halt Medicaid cuts before he would agree to negotiate with them. He also predicted a high likelihood of a government shutdown. Meanwhile, he explained that he was happy to meet with them, but it would not lead to anything.
          UK Foreign Secretary hints Gaza Peace Deal is close
          UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper hinted in an interview with The Guardian on Sunday that the international community is close to reaching a peace agreement for the Gaza Strip in Palestine. Cooper, who had just returned from attending the UN General Assembly, said there was a "real, huge consensus building" during the assembly and that the international community has shown "real energy and determination" toward achieving peace. "I think we’ve reached a moment where the world wants to end this war," she said. "But there was no doubt that there is a real sense of determination and energy behind trying to get an end to the war and to try and get not just an immediate ceasefire, but a proper plan for the future."
          Cooper said the initial steps toward peace include a ceasefire, the restoration of humanitarian aid, and the release of all hostages. She acknowledged that the process remains fragile and faces many obstacles. Cooper also stated that U.S. President Trump will need to play a key role in getting Israel to accept any deal. On Saturday, Trump said it looks like "we have a deal" regarding Gaza. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said on Friday that he is ready to work with Trump and other global leaders to advance a two-state solution.
          Leading LDP Candidate suggests revisiting the US-Japan Trade Deal
          A leading candidate for Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership, Sanae Takaichi, suggested that a U.S.-Japan trade agreement might be revisited if it does not serve Japan's interests. Speaking on Fuji TV on Sunday about a $550 billion Japanese investment fund that was part of a deal to lower U.S. tariffs, Takaichi said that if any unfair aspects detrimental to Japan's interests are found during the implementation of the agreement, Japan must stand firm — including the possibility of reopening negotiations. Her remarks come less than a week before the LDP selects a new leader from among five candidates.
          Global economic and trade frictions heat up again in July amid U.S. tariff policy shifts
          The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) held a press conference to release the July Global Economic and Trade Friction Index. Data shows that global economic and trade frictions have heated up again due to repeated adjustments in U.S. tariff policies. The overall index stood at 110 in July, indicating a high level of friction. The value of global economic and trade friction measures rose 6.6% year-on-year and 27.6% month-on-month. Among the 20 monitored countries (regions), the U.S., EU, and Brazil ranked highest in terms of economic and trade friction indices, with the U.S. involved in the most measures and topping the list for the 13th consecutive month.
          France's public debt soars to $4 trillion, putting pressure on the New Prime Minister
          Official data shows France's public debt has surged to a record high, putting pressure on new Prime Minister Michel Barnier as he faces protests and political turbulence. According to France's National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), the country's total debt reached €3.4 trillion ($4 trillion) in the second quarter of this year, equivalent to 115.6% of GDP. The debt increased by nearly €80 billion in just the past three months. France's debt-to-GDP ratio is now the third-highest in the EU, behind only Greece and Italy, and nearly double the EU's prescribed limit of 60%. Barnier was appointed by President Emmanuel Macron this month, replacing Gabriel Attal, who was ousted by parliament after just nine months in office due to austerity budget issues.
          Willing to resolve conflict through talks, holding some expectations for talks with U.S.
          On September 27th, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov delivered a speech at the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly. Lavrov stated that Russia remains willing to resolve the root causes of the conflict through dialogue. Russia is open to discussing security guarantees for Ukraine, but only if they safeguard Russia's vital interests and ensure the rights of Russian-speaking populations in Ukraine are respected. Lavrov emphasized that Russia has never and does not intend to attack NATO or the EU. However, he warned that any aggression against Russia will be met with a firm response, and NATO and the EU should not doubt that.
          Oil prices fall as the Kurdish Region restores crude exports and OPEC+ plans to boost output
          Oil prices slipped nearly 1% on Monday as the Kurdistan region of Iraq resumed crude exports via Turkey over the weekend, while OPEC+ plans to raise oil production again in November, signaling a potential increase in global supply. Brent crude futures fell 0.90% to $69.50/bbl, after settling at a July 31st high on Friday. U.S. crude settled at $65.07/bbl., down 0.99%, erasing most of Friday's gains.
          Iraq's oil ministry said the pipeline from the northern Kurdish region to Turkey resumed oil flows on Saturday for the first time in two and a half years, following the reaching of a temporary agreement to break the deadlock. Iraq's oil minister told Kurdish broadcaster Rudaw on Friday that an agreement had been reached among the federal government, the Kurdish regional government, and foreign oil producers operating in the area to allow the export of 180,000 to 190,000 barrels per day to Turkey's Ceyhan port.
          Three sources familiar with the talks said OPEC+ may approve another output increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day at its meeting next Sunday, as rising oil prices prompt the group to try to regain more market share. Despite expectations of oversupply, OPEC+ has been producing nearly 500,000 barrels per day below its target.

          [Today's Focus]

          UTC+8 17:00 Eurozone September Economic Sentiment Indicator
          UTC+8 17:00 Speech by European Central Bank Governing Council Member Joachim Nagel
          UTC+8 19:35 Speech by European Central Bank Governing Council Member Boris Vujcic
          UTC+8 20:00 Speech by Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester
          UTC+8 20:00 Speech by Bank of England Deputy Governor David Ramsden
          UTC+8 22:00 U.S. August Pending Home Sales Index (MoM)
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          How To Improve Inflation Targets Without Inciting The Bond Vigilantes

          Samantha Luan

          Forex

          Political

          Economic

          Bond

          How might policymakers alter their 2% inflation targets without getting attacked by the bond vigilantes for playing fast and loose with their mandates? The post-pandemic experience of soaring consumer prices demands a review of how central banks conduct themselves; policymakers should bite the monetary bullet by asking their political masters to allow them to adopt individual inflation bands, and fend off potential critics by adding an obligation to embrace some broad growth measure that embraces the wider economy in guiding interest rates to an appropriate level.

          As I've argued before, attempting to steer multitrillion-dollar economies to land with laser precision onto a micro-specific inflation pin is a fool’s errand. The aura of invincibility and omnipotence has cracked; central banks should be voluntarily seeking reforms, or they will be reformed in ways that may prove less than ideal. The current omerta surrounding the topic is unsustainable, especially when politicians are starting to question the independence of their central banks.

          Too little attention was paid at the start of the decade to the likely hangover from a heady cocktail of cutting interest rates close to zero and increased bond buying via quantitative easing — at the same time as governments delivered a bucketload of fiscal stimulus. A deliberate avoidance of accountability combined with antediluvian communications and a spreadsheet-driven mentality endanger what central bankers revere most — their independence.

          Key to any reevaluation of how monetary policy is conducted has to be an attitude change. Rigid academic adherence to backward-looking datasets has to be scrapped, especially as the quality of the numbers in far too many countries is being questioned. An overhaul that pays more attention to the multitude of agents and decision makers that policymakers already informally consult when setting borrowing cost would be helpful for a start.

          Above all, enhanced flexibility ought to be the new mantra. The Federal Reserve's pre-pandemic Flexible Average Inflation Targeting was short lived because the market detected a lack of conviction — it was really designed to breathe more stimulus in after a bout of sluggish growth — and, credit where it’s due, the central bank ditched it quickly as consumer prices started to accelerate. Nonetheless the initial idea is valid.

          Moreover, one size doesn't have to fit all. Clumping around a 2% inflation target may seem to offer safety in numbers, but what suits the Fed isn’t necessarily appropriate for the European Central Bank. Setting a target range rather than a single mark can work provided policymakers feel confident to sometimes make clear that one end of the range is what they're aiming at for a particular period.

          Multiple mandates encompassing economic variables such as maximum employment or nominal growth all have merit. And steering interest rates across the yield curve, not just overnight rates, should at least be a topic for consideration. Not paying due attention to how steep the curve is and how that affects investment and crimps government budgets leads to policy errors; the importance of calibrating short-term interest rates with the longer-dated repercussions of shrinking or expanding central bank balance sheets in an age of quantitative tightening and easing can’t be underestimated.

          That, though, shouldn’t sanction explicit yield curve control, as trialed by the Bank of Japan between 2016 and 2024. Optically, there was a long period of stability — but at the heavy price of sharply reduced liquidity. Japanese government bond yields are now significantly higher; the experiment has driven buyers out of the market, perhaps for good.

          Lorie Logan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, last week proposed replacing the central bank’s benchmark federal funds rate with a more widely used market bellwether. The federal funds market, where banks once lent to each other on an overnight basis, has ceded activity to the market for repurchase agreements, another form of short-term lending. So far, she's a lone voice willing to question the current ossification of monetary policy — and even then is only tinkering with its output mechanism, rather than the guiding inputs.

          Shifting to a target range for inflation must make it explicit that consumer price increases can occasionally be allowed to linger below 2%, drifting closer to deflationary levels; otherwise, those bond vigilantes will always suspect policymakers will be more comfortable at the higher end of the spectrum. That 2% shibboleth may have been the answer once — but central bankers should be willing to move with the times and embrace change before change is inflicted on them.

          Source: Bloomberg Europe

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Walmart's PhonePe Ought To Get A Bit Of Credit

          Samantha Luan

          Economic

          Stocks

          Forex

          India's financial technology startups are lining up for credit. Among them is Walmart-backedpayments champion PhonePe, which on Wednesday said it has confidentially filed for an initial public offering in Mumbai. A mooted $15 billion valuationlooks punchy, but its shot at grabbing the ultimate fintech prize in the country is half decent.The U.S. retailer owns about 84% of the startup, which it acquired as part of its 2018 acquisition of e-commerce platform Flipkart. PhonePe's target valuation would imply a multiple of 13 times sales for the year to end March 2026, assuming its topline grows at the same 40% pace as it did in the previous year. That compares to 9 times Paytm-owner One97 Communicationscommands among investors.

          PhonePe is superior in multiple ways. Though Paytm swung to profit in the June quarter, PhonePe's losses are narrowing and it has faced none of the regulatory heat that has mired its rival. The Walmart unit also enjoys a 46% share in transactions passing through India's homegrown bank-to-bank mobile payments system, where its closest competitor is an application owned by Alphabet'sGoogle.

          Thomson ReutersPhonePe and Google form a payments duopoly in India

          Yet simple payment transactions earn no fees in India. To profit, PhonePe needs to gradually convert its 200 million monthly active users and 40 million-strong merchant network into customers of financial products, from loans to insurance and mutual funds.It's a promise that Paytm is starting to realise. Its revenue from financial services distribution doubled during the year to end June and accounted for 29% of its quarterly topline. PhonePe, by virtue of its bigger share of payments, ought to have a larger database spanning utility bill payments to restaurant outings that it can leverage to decide who is creditworthy.

          The upstart will probably churn out a different, slightly lower, class of customer to those chased by India's traditional lenders, including HDFC Bankand ICICI Bank. They already have strong digital sourcing engines, however, so there will be some overlap in who they target. And the $72 billion Bajaj Financehas a formidable grip on the consumer loan market too that's proven hard to break.Yet if India is to produce anything like a real fintech winner, PhonePe is more than likely to be it.

          CONTEXT NEWS

          Walmart-backed Indian fintech firm PhonePe on September 24 said it has confidentially filed for a Mumbai initial public offering.

          The company plans to raise around 120 billion rupees ($1.35 billion) through a sale of existing shares, Moneycontrol reported on the same day, citing unnamed industry sources. Walmart, Tiger Global and Microsoft could sell a combined 10% stake in the IPO, the report added.PhonePe narrowed losses during the year ended March 31 to 17.3 billion rupees ($194.7 million) from 19.96 billion rupees ($225 million) in the previous 12-month period, the company said in a regulatory filing on September 22.

          Source: TradingView

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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