Climate And Environmental Governance: Methane: Asean’s Hidden Climate And Economic Opportunity

Political

Economic

Summary:

The Malaysian government is expected to table the National Climate Change Bill (also known as the RUUPIN) in parliament in the coming months, providing a legal framework for climate action and anchoring market-based financing for adaptation and resilience. Malaysia's global climate pledges, including the goal of cutting methane emissions by 30% by 2030, were reaffirmed by the then acting minister of natural resources and environmental sustainability Datuk Seri Johari Abdul Ghani when announcing this timeline.

Methane, the primary component of natural gas, is also a potent greenhouse gas responsible for roughly 30% of global warming, because it traps over 80 times more heat than carbon dioxide in a 20-year period. Methane reduction is fast emerging as a defining front in the global fight against climate change.

The Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) is a global non-profit driving practical solutions for a safer climate and a more resilient energy future. For more than a decade, EDF has advanced scientific and economic efforts to highlight how methane mitigation is a rare opportunity to address emissions while benefiting energy supply, economic development, and the climate. About 25% of human-made methane comes from the oil and gas sector; reducing these emissions is an economic and climate relief opportunity.

Momentum is building across Southeast Asia to curb methane emissions from the oil and gas sector. The region's efforts gained structure in 2023 with the launch of the Asean Energy Sector Methane Leadership Program (MLP) in Kuala Lumpur — an initiative backed by Petroliam Nasional Bhd (PETRONAS) and the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security, now entering its second phase (MLP 2.0). PETRONAS set a regional benchmark at COP28 by becoming the first national oil company in Asean to commit to halving methane emissions by 2025. The following year, Asean energy ministers spotlighted MLP as a model of regional cooperation. By COP29, that collaboration deepened, as leading national oil companies across Asean pledged a joint path forward — to establish a regional methane emissions baseline by 2025 and set measurable reduction targets for 2030, underscoring a collective drive towards a lower emission energy future.

Progress followed by these pledges is evident. PETRONAS has already achieved a 62% methane reduction a year ahead of schedule. PETRONAS, Indonesia's Pertamina and Thailand's national oil company PTTEP have joined the UN Environment Programme Oil and Gas Methane Partnership 2.0, committing to higher standards of monitoring and transparency. In May 2025, Cambodia became one of the first least-developed countries to submit its National Methane Roadmap, aiming to increase the country's climate ambition and inform updates to its Nationally Determined Contribution. In June 2025, the Methane Management Roadmap for Oil and Gas in Asean was released by the Asean Centre for Energy (ACE), Asean Council on Petroleum and the World Bank. Most recently, in October 2025, the Asean Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation 2026-2030 includes action plans to set and promote initiatives to reduce methane emissions in oil and gas activities.

Two new studies by EDF, Swinburne University of Technology Sarawak and the Institute of Strategic and International Studies Malaysia suggest that cutting methane emissions in the country's oil and gas industry could deliver not only climate benefits but also strong economic gains.

The first study found that up to 63% of methane emissions from Malaysia's upstream oil and gas sector could be mitigated at no net cost — largely through measures such as rerouting vented gas to fuel systems and replacing high-emission equipment with zero emission alternatives. Even a 30% reduction could yield net revenues of US$8 million (RM32 million) to US$11 million, offering a clear business case for action. The findings provide Malaysia-specific data to guide investment and technology choices in the Asean region, filling a gap often dominated by US-centric data used by regional energy companies.

The second study highlights methane abatement as a potential job creator. Opportunities are expected to emerge across fields such as remote sensing, drone inspection, measurement, monitoring, reporting and verification. The oil and gas services and equipment sector stands to gain the most, with additional employment growth anticipated across downstream operations — signalling that methane reduction could become both an environmental and economic win for Malaysia.

Methane management stands out as a rare win-win for Malaysia and the broader Asean region — a strategy that strengthens both climate ambition and economic resilience. By embedding methane reduction targets into the forthcoming National Climate Change Bill, Malaysia can turn commitment into leadership, aligning the bill with its Climate Change Policy 2.0 and setting a powerful precedent for neighbours like Thailand, which is also developing climate legislation.

With the Asean Methane Roadmap promising up to US$87 million in additional gas revenue alongside deep emission cuts, the case is clear: tackling methane is not a cost, but an investment in efficiency, innovation and regional energy security. The region can no longer afford to let methane leak away as lost value and rising pollution — it's time to capture its potential for a cleaner, more competitive future.

Dr Shareen Yawanarajah is senior director of Energy Transition at the Environmental Defense Fund. She leads EDF's Southeast Asia energy transition strategy and engagement agenda.

Source: Theedgemarkets

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Michelle

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin's price stayed subdued on December 25 as renewed activity from large holders, including whale transfers to exchanges, combined with continued outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, unsettled market sentiment, raised concerns about potential sell pressure, and left traders cautious despite BTC holding above key technical support levels overall market.

Bitcoin ETFs See Continued Outflows, Weak Demand

A long-inactive Bitcoin whale and asset manager BlackRock moved large sums of BTC to centralized exchanges on the day according to blockchain analytics firm Onchain Lens.

BlackRock had invested 2,292 BTC that had a value of about 199.8 million dollars in Coinbase. In another transaction, a whale wallet that was dormant in eight years transferred 400 BTC, worth about 34.92 million, to the OKX exchange.

Traders keep a close eye on such transfers, which massive deposits to exchanges would typically suggest to them that there is sell-side pressure.

No direct spot selling was established, but the flows were sufficiently sufficing to place market participants on their toes.

The warning sound was supported by the ongoing weak institutional flows. According to the data provided by SoSoValue, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced their fifth day in a row of net outflows. The continual withdrawals were an indication that the institutional demand was still weak despite the fact that Bitcoin was trading above key technical support levels.

: Source: SoSoValue

Bitcoin Leverage Declines as Traders Reduce Risk

Meanwhile, there was an overall fall in leverage in the derivatives market. BTC was trading around $87,700 at press time, falling about 0.35% on the day. According to CoinGlass, open interest was dropped at 0.99% to $57.42 billion, which means that traders were not taking on risk as they were not aggressively positioning themselves to expect a price breakout.

: Source: Coinglass

Positioning information suggested areas of bullish conviction in spite of the leverage pullback. The Liquidation Map of CoinGlass indicated that its largest concentration of leverage was on the downside and on the upside to $85,966 and 88,636 respectively.

The long leveraged positions (of a total of around 646.17 million) were concentrated nearer to the bottom whereas the short leveraged positions (of the total of around 422.42 million) were concentrated above the Bitcoin price, indicating that the traders were generally confident that BTC would be above the zone of support of 85,966.

In a larger technical context, BTC is stuck in a range of consolidation. The weekly chart analysis indicates that BTC has been trading at an average bottom of about $86,000 to a top of about $93,500 since mid-November. Such long periods of steady consolidation are, in the past, usually followed by sharp swings in one way or the other.

: Source: Tradingview

Since Bitcoin has been fluctuating around the lower part of this range, there has been an increased fear of a possible breakdown. Technical analysts believe that a daily close below the support of the $86,000 may open up to further decline.

On the contrary, the bearish view would be nullified in case BTC were to advance beyond the upper resistance at about 93,500 mark and herald another bullish breakout.

Whale action, ETF outflows, and to a certain extent, thinning leverage have so far joined hands to hold the Bitcoin traders squarely on the defensive side.

Source: CryptoSlate

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Return To Surplus After Nearly Three Decades

Japan's fiscal trajectory is on the verge of a historical turning point. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi recently announced that the country is projected to record a primary balance surplus in its initial national budget for fiscal year 2026 a milestone last achieved in 1998. This development represents a major symbolic and practical shift for a country that has grappled with ballooning public debt and chronic fiscal deficits for more than 27 years.

According to the Finance Ministry, the projected national-level primary surplus will reach ¥1.34 trillion, not accounting for additional local government data or potential mid-year fiscal interventions. The Cabinet Office’s final balance sheet, which includes local finances, will be disclosed in the coming months. Given the positive contribution of local governments in recent years, the full fiscal picture is expected to remain in surplus unless an additional national budget is introduced later in the fiscal year.

A Delicate Balance Between Spending and Sustainability

The fiscal 2026 budget, approved by the cabinet earlier this week, amounts to a record ¥122.3 trillion (approximately $782 billion). Despite its size, the government has achieved a reduction in new government bond issuance compared to the previous year. This was made possible by strong tax revenue performance, which has limited the need for increased borrowing.

Prime Minister Takaichi emphasized that the proposed budget is designed to strike a balance between sustaining economic growth and reinforcing long-term fiscal discipline. This positioning is critical, given that Japan’s debt burden remains among the highest in the developed world. The government’s ability to avoid further debt accumulation in a high-spending framework rests on robust revenue inflows a scenario facilitated in part by current inflationary conditions.

The surplus is expected to serve as reassurance for financial markets that have been increasingly concerned about Japan’s fiscal outlook. Rising bond yields with 10-year government bonds recently climbing to 2.1%, the highest level since 1998 have reflected investor unease about the sustainability of Japan’s public finances, especially under expansionary fiscal policy.

Fiscal Metrics and Political Messaging

While the Takaichi administration continues to acknowledge the importance of the primary balance as a fiscal benchmark, it has gradually shifted emphasis toward the debt-to-GDP ratio as a more practical and inflation-adjusted measure of fiscal health. This strategic shift aligns with broader macroeconomic trends, particularly in an environment where inflation can help reduce the real burden of outstanding debt.

Nonetheless, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama made clear that the primary balance target has not been abandoned. Instead, the administration is taking a more longitudinal approach, assessing fiscal performance across multiple years rather than aiming for single-year milestones. This approach may reflect the government’s intention to build credibility incrementally, avoiding abrupt policy shifts that could unsettle growth or political stability.

It is also important to note that Japan had originally targeted a primary balance surplus by fiscal 2011. However, this goal was repeatedly deferred due to persistent economic headwinds, natural disasters, and evolving political priorities. The anticipated achievement in fiscal 2026 therefore marks not just a statistical milestone, but a delayed realization of a long-standing policy objective.

Analyzing Causal and Correlational Factors

The projected surplus is shaped by several intertwined factors. The rise in tax revenue a causal driver has directly reduced the government’s reliance on debt financing. Similarly, reduced bond issuance has mitigated pressures on the bond market, contributing to a more stable funding environment. These outcomes are the result of proactive fiscal management rather than passive correlation.

On the other hand, the decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio is partly a function of inflationary trends, which are correlated with a higher nominal GDP rather than directly caused by fiscal discipline. Therefore, while inflation has made certain fiscal targets easier to attain on paper, it does not reflect a fundamental structural improvement unless supported by sustained policy efforts.

The relationship between government spending and market confidence is also complex. While increased spending can raise concerns about fiscal recklessness, in this case, it appears that the market has responded positively to the combination of strong revenue performance and reduced bond issuance indicating a nuanced interplay between fiscal expansion and perceived responsibility.

Japan’s return to a primary surplus marks a potential turning point in the country’s fiscal narrative. While the underlying debt burden remains a serious challenge, the projected surplus offers both symbolic reassurance and practical momentum for continued reforms. Prime Minister Takaichi’s ability to maintain pro-growth spending while navigating fiscal consolidation reflects a broader effort to redefine responsible fiscal governance in a changing economic landscape. However, maintaining the surplus in subsequent years will require continued discipline and adaptability, especially in the face of global uncertainties and domestic policy demands.

Source: Bloomberg

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Glendon

Stocks

Economic

Investors are looking for the US stock market to end 2025 on a high note next week, with equities at record peaks and nearing further bullish milestones to close out another strong year.

Major US indexes were on course to end December higher after stocks shook off turbulence earlier in the month driven by weakness in technology shares over worries tied to spending on artificial intelligence.

The S&P 500 posted a record close on Wednesday, ahead of the Christmas holiday on Thursday, and was about 1% from reaching the 7,000 level for the first time. The benchmark index was on track for its eighth straight month of gains, which would be its longest monthly winning streak since 2017-2018.

"Momentum is certainly on the side of the bulls," said Paul Nolte, senior wealth adviser and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management. "Barring any exogenous event, the path of least resistance for stocks, I think, is higher."

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent meeting highlight the market events in the holiday-shortened week ahead, while year-end portfolio adjustments could cause some volatility at a time when light trading volumes can exaggerate asset price moves.

Heading into the new year, investors are highly focused on when the Fed might further cut interest rates. The US central bank, which balances goals of contained inflation and full employment, lowered its benchmark rate by 75 basis points over its last three meetings of 2025 to the current level of 3.5%-3.75%.

But the Fed's most recent vote at its December 9-10 meeting to lower rates by a quarter percentage point was divided, while policymakers also gave widely different projections about rates in the coming year. The minutes for that meeting, due to be released on Tuesday of next week, may be "illuminating to hear what some of the arguments were around the table," said Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede.

"Handicapping how many rate cuts we're going to get next year is a big thing markets are focused on right now," Reynolds said. "We'll just get a little bit more information on that next week."

Investors are also waiting for President Donald Trump to nominate a Fed chair to replace Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May, and any inkling of Trump's decision could sway markets in the coming week.

With just a handful of trading sessions left in 2025, the S&P 500 was up nearly 18% for the year, with the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite up 22%.

However, the tech sector, which has been the main driver of the more than three-year-old bull market, has struggled in recent weeks, while other areas of the market have shined. Despite rebounding this week, the S&P 500 tech sector has declined more than 3% since the start of November. Over that time, areas such as financials, transports, healthcare and small caps have posted solid gains.

The market moves indicate some rotation into areas where valuations are more moderate, said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial.

"There are more investors that are buying in to the narrative that the economy is on pretty solid footing right now," Saglimbene said. "And it has weathered a lot of potential roadblocks this year that might not be such roadblocks next year."

Source: Theedgemarkets

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Commodity

A Historic Surge: Silver Outpaces Gold in 2025

Silver prices hit an all-time high on Friday, surpassing $75 per ounce amid a potent combination of strong industrial and investment demand, ongoing supply shortfalls, and the U.S. government’s recent classification of silver as a “critical mineral.” This dramatic rally, which has seen silver outperform gold by more than 2-to-1 in percentage terms in 2025, is also driven by speculative momentum.

As silver reclaims attention as both an industrial staple and a safe-haven asset, investors are turning to a variety of trading channels to access the metal.

Over-the-Counter (OTC): The Private Market Backbone

The largest global marketplace for physical silver operates in London through over-the-counter (OTC) bilateral trades. Major financial institutions like JPMorgan and HSBC maintain vaults filled with silver bullion, facilitating transactions between brokers and their clients.

This OTC market is less visible than public exchanges but remains essential for large-volume transactions, especially for institutional players. As of November 2025, vaults in London held over 27,000 tons of silver, serving as the physical backing for many global trades.

Futures Markets: Speculation and Hedging Instruments

Silver futures are actively traded on exchanges like the COMEX in New York and the Shanghai Futures Exchange. These standardized contracts allow traders to bet on the future price of silver without needing to handle the physical metal.

In most cases, futures aren’t held until delivery instead, positions are rolled over to later-dated contracts. This rolling strategy makes futures ideal for both hedgers and speculators. The appeal is further boosted by the use of margin: investors only need to deposit a portion of the contract’s full value to take a position, amplifying potential gains (and risks).

Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs): Democratizing Silver Access

ETFs such as the iShares Silver Trust, managed by BlackRock, have made silver investment more accessible to retail investors. Each ETF share represents a portion of actual silver held in vaults. Investors can buy and sell shares on major stock exchanges just like company stocks using platforms like Robinhood.

ETFs are particularly attractive because they allow small investors to gain exposure to silver without needing to worry about storage or security. As of December 2025, the iShares Silver Trust holds about 529 million ounces of silver, valued at roughly $39 billion.

Physical Silver: Bars and Coins for Individual Ownership

Beyond paper instruments, individuals can purchase physical silver in the form of bars and coins. These are available from mints and retailers worldwide and are popular among those who prefer tangible assets or distrust centralized financial systems.

Physical silver appeals not just for its aesthetic and collectible value, but also as a hedge against currency devaluation and geopolitical uncertainty.

Silver Mining Stocks: A Leveraged Bet on Prices

Investing in silver mining companies offers indirect exposure to the metal’s price while introducing other variables such as company performance, debt levels, and management quality. These stocks tend to correlate strongly with silver’s spot price but often exhibit greater volatility making them a favorite among risk-tolerant traders.

Popular mining stocks can be easily traded on public exchanges, with price swings reflecting both metal prices and corporate fundamentals.

A Metal with Many Market Faces

Silver’s historic rise in 2025 has spotlighted its versatility as both an industrial metal and an investment asset. Whether through London’s OTC trades, futures contracts, ETFs, physical purchases, or mining stocks, silver remains one of the most dynamic and accessible commodities on the global market.

Its trading ecosystem offers a broad spectrum of risk and reward, attracting both institutional giants and everyday investors alike. As silver cements its role in the global energy transition and high-tech manufacturing, its market significance and price volatility are likely to remain elevated.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Forex

Rupee’s Fragile Gains Reversed by Persistent Dollar Demand

Despite recent support from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the Indian rupee weakened slightly on Friday and booked its first weekly loss in two weeks, slipping to 89.85 per U.S. dollar. This marks a reversal from last week’s more than 1% appreciation, which was driven by aggressive RBI dollar sales that pulled the rupee away from record lows.

Traders attributed the rupee’s underperformance this week to continued demand for dollars from corporates and in the non-deliverable forward (NDF) market both of which chipped away at central bank-led support. A trader at a major private bank warned that upcoming maturing NDF positions next week may apply further pressure, possibly pushing the rupee beyond the 90.50 mark.

RBI’s Limited Room to Defend: Intervention vs. Reserve Accumulation

Even though the rupee stayed within a tight range on Friday, largely supported by state-run bank dollar sales around the 89.90 level, the broader trend suggests a fragile currency facing more downside risk. Analysts at ANZ noted that while further depreciation may occur, the RBI could use any appreciation windows to bolster its foreign reserves, which stood at a healthy $689 billion as of mid-December.

This strategy reflects a balancing act: the central bank intervenes to defend the rupee in times of volatility, but also remains opportunistic in rebuilding reserves when the currency strengthens. The 0.6% decline this week underscores the limits of sustained intervention, especially in the face of structural dollar demand and global market volatility.

Forward Premiums Fall Amid FX Swap Impact

The 1-year dollar-rupee forward premium dropped by 10 basis points to 2.74%, reflecting easing concerns over dollar liquidity following the RBI's recent FX swap announcement. This easing led to a wave of stop-loss selling in forward contracts, further pushing down implied yields and signaling less aggressive hedging in the short term.

Still, lower forward premiums may dampen the appeal of carry trades and reduce inflows, indirectly weighing on the rupee’s medium-term outlook.

Broader FX Market Dynamics: Dollar Weakness Fails to Lift INR

The rupee’s performance contrasts with broader Asian currency movements, which remained largely range-bound. The U.S. dollar index hovered near a two-month low and appeared poised for its fourth weekly loss in five weeks, suggesting that global dollar weakness has not yet translated into sustained support for the rupee.

The divergence highlights domestic structural pressures such as persistent trade deficits and capital outflows that continue to challenge the Indian currency, despite an overall dovish shift in global interest rate expectations.

Awaiting Trade Deal Catalyst Amid Cautious Sentiment

Looking ahead, traders and analysts see limited upside for the rupee without a significant catalyst. ANZ analysts suggested that a favorable trade deal with the U.S. could be the turning point for the currency. Until then, the rupee is expected to face “gradual depreciation,” particularly in the absence of major flows or positive macro triggers.

As market participants await clarity on the U.S.-India trade talks, the rupee may continue to tread water, caught between central bank defense on one side and relentless dollar demand on the other.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Justin

Political

Economic

President Donald Trump has the chance to begin the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. Delay will only destabilize the situation.

President Donald Trump's peace plan for Gaza, and his best hope for a Nobel Peace Prize, needs a big push when he meets with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu on December 29. As of Christmas, the plan appears to have stalled, but that is only partly true. Hamas's refusal to surrender its weapons is the big problem—but the solution is far more in President Trump's hands than most realize.

I led postwar planning for Iraq at the US State Department and worked on post-conflict operations in Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq, East Timor, Libya, and Afghanistan. After Hamas' terrorist attack on October 7, 2023, along with many others, I warned of the dangers of failing to plan for postwar Gaza and joined a group of former senior officials to develop a plan for postwar Gaza. President Trump and his team, working with Israel and Arab allies, deserve the credit for Trump's twenty-point peace plan, codified in United Nations Security Council Resolution 2803.

Our plan got closer to Trump's final plan than anyone else: international governance for a transitional period, an international oversight board, working with Palestinians from Gaza, backed up by an international stabilization force, authorized by a United Nations Security Council resolution, with a non-American in charge of the civilian effort and a US general heading up the International Stabilization Force (ISF).

All living and all but one deceased Israeli hostages have been returned, but Hamas has neither disarmed nor given up governance of the west of a "Yellow Line" that divides Gaza in half. Apart from a Civil-Military Coordination Center in Kiryat Gat, Israel, no country has sent forces for the ISF that will provide security, oversee Hamas's disarmament, and allow the Israeli army to withdraw to Gaza's borders.

The Board of Peace, which Trump will chair, will not be announced until January. The Palestinian technocratic committee tasked with rebuilding Gaza's infrastructure has not yet been named. An executive committee that will handle vital day-to-day coordination among internationals, Palestinians, Israelis, Egyptians, and donor states has only four known names: highly respected Bulgarian diplomat Nikolay Mladenov, US envoy Steve Witkoff, Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, and former British prime minister Tony Blair.

While visionary plans exist, nobody has put up the money needed to start anything. Arab governments will not finance Gaza's reconstruction as long as Hamas retains its weapons, the use of which would invite Israeli retaliation, destroying whatever was rebuilt. Some think both Hamas and Israel are slow-rolling Trump's plan, increasing the suffering of the two million Gazans living in desperate circumstances and putting the security of both Israelis and Palestinians at risk while Hamas increases its chokehold over half of Gaza's territory and most of Gaza's people.

Despite this, much has been going on behind the scenes, but Trump now has to make a key choice among three clashing visions.

One, which Prime Minister Netanyahu will likely push, is Trump's approval for Israeli military action against Hamas fighters. The strategic logic is that a further weakened Hamas would eventually be unable to interfere with Trump's peace plan. However, this would result in Israeli and many Gazan casualties and disruption of humanitarian aid. How long this would take is unclear. Also, Netanyahu reportedly wants US support for an attack on Iran's missile program, which Iran is actively rebuilding. He may also ask for Trump's authorization to attack Hezbollah if it refuses to turn over its weapons to the Lebanese armed forces. Trump may agree to one of these ideas, but he will not agree to all of them.

The second is the plan that the Tony Blair Institute developed last summer. A leaked draft from September in Haaretz has a small international "executive secretariat" with five "commissioners" overseeing a Palestinian Executive Authority (PEA) that actually runs Gaza. This plan puts substantial responsibilities on the local Palestinians, who would not be affiliated with Hamas. Still, the leaked draft is weak on how Hamas would be disarmed and how to keep Hamas from extorting or coercing Gazans, including those in the PEA, into obeying its will.

It calls for partial deployment in the first two years, with full operations only in Year Three, which is too late. Audit mechanisms appear significantly understaffed. Corruption is a major reason many Palestinians mistrust the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah, and support for Gaza's reconstruction will evaporate if it replicates this failure.

With a total budget of only $90 million in the first year, the plan appears too small to oversee the amount of work required to start Gaza's physical and social reconstruction. This plan has almost certainly been improved since September, but Trump will want to know whether these problems have been addressed.

The third option is the Gaza Supply System, developed by Americans reporting to Witkoff and Kushner, which would use private capital to jump-start Gaza's physical and social reconstruction east of the Yellow Line, while employing private security contractors in roles the International Stabilization Force is unwilling to undertake. This would get around two roadblocks: first, no Arab governments have actually contributed billions of dollars to Gaza's reconstruction, and second, private security contractors are willing to work in Gaza even while the United States insists on no US boots on the ground, and other countries are unwilling to have their troops confront Hamas.

According to an article from The Guardian, private investors would be repaid for jump-starting Gaza's reconstruction through tariffs or tolls on aid and commercial trucks entering Gaza. The United States government similarly relied on customs duties and tariffs to fund public services and security until the advent of the income tax.

Historically, Hamas also charged tolls on aid trucks and taxed Gazans bringing in cash from jobs in Israel. And charging tolls on incoming trucks provides private investors with a positive incentive to increase the number of trucks entering Gaza, aligning their interests with those of the Gazan people while ensuring robust but not excessive security inspections.

Trump will have to decide soon which of these three competing proposals he will support. Waiting on Hamas to voluntarily disarm is unlikely to succeed, prolonging both the misery of 2 million Gazans and the security risk to both Israelis and Palestinians. Arab governments have not embraced Blair's plan.

The people of Gaza and Israel need to see progress, and waiting for an enlarged version of a postwar governance plan to be funded and staffed in mid-2026 is dangerously late. President Trump should approve a plan that starts, urgently, Gaza's physical and social reconstruction. The Gaza Supply System model, for all its limitations, is currently the best available approach to jump-start some level of security and reconstruction in at least half of Gaza. We have to start somewhere—and we need to start now.