China’s Trade Clout Can Quicken The Yuan’s Rise

Forex

Economic

Summary:

A single word often makes a big difference in Chinese policy. In previous five-year economic development plans, for example, Beijing had always reiterated it wants to "prudently promote" yuan internationalisation. In an outline of the next 2026-2030 blueprint unveiled last month, the word "prudently" has been struck out. That signals bolder designs for the renminbi, though progress will be limited so long as economic planners keep tight control over capital flows.

China's $20 trillion economy may be the second-largest in the world, but its currency was only the fifth most-traded last year, according to a September report from the Bank of International Settlements. Still, thanks to incremental policies, including currency swap deals with other central banks, the yuan now makes up 8.5% of global currency transactions, up from 7% in 2022.

Thomson ReutersChina's yuan remains the world's fifth most-traded currency

For Beijing, trade settlement will probably be the next area of focus, given China's 15% share of $33 trillion of global trade by value. Notably, as part of a broader contract dispute, China's steel industry has stopped purchasing dollar-denominated iron ore from Australia's BHPsince October, according to Chinese media, citing sources, and has insisted the mining giant settle 30% of transactions in yuan going forward. Separately, Dutch chipmaker Nexperia's Chinese unit has demanded all transactions be settled in yuan, Reuters reported, citing sources, after The Hague seized control of the company's Netherlands-based parent in September, sparking a broader standoff.

These moves can have an immediate impact. Up to 12.4 trillion yuan ($1.7 trillion) of trade with China was paid in local currency last year, about 27% of the total, according to the country's central bank's yuan internationalisation report published last week. Settling 30% of imports from BHP can add another $39 billion worth of yuan-denominated transactions annually. And using renminbi will appeal to countries that want to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar. That includes Brazil and Russia, which exported $31 billion of soybeans and $50 billion of crude oil, respectively, to the People's Republic last year.

Chinese planners have long insisted that their plan is not to replace the greenback with a "redback". And it's unlikely they will allow the country's currency to flow freely across its borders. Still, Beijing's trade clout can help it chip away at the dollar's dominance.

CONTEXT NEWS

Commodity news portal SteelOrbis reported on October 11 that BHP has agreed with China Mineral Resources Group to switch to yuan settlements for 30% of its spot ore trade with China, citing sources.

Separately, Dutch chipmaker Nexperia's Chinese unit has resumed supplying semiconductors to local distributors, but all sales to distributors must now be settled in yuan, Reuters reported on October 23, citing two people briefed on the matter.

Source: TradingView

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Political

Forex

Economic

A legal logjam stemming from India's slow-moving judiciary and complex tax system has locked up trillions of rupees within the South Asian nation's system of commercial tribunals, pressuring business cashflow and investment decisions.

A recent report by the think tank Daksh found that 24.72 trillion rupees ($279 billion) of business transactions remain locked in tax and other disputes in commercial tribunals across the country. These disputes include insolvency cases, debt recovery by banks and financial institutions, corporate litigation and discrepancies over the Goods and Services Tax.

A lack of technical expertise and a chronic shortage of judges have created a backlog at tribunals equivalent to 7.5% of the country's 330.68 trillion rupee gross domestic product in the fiscal year through March this year, warned Daksh, an independent research institute focused on judicial reform based in Bengaluru.

The report, published in September, highlighted that a mere 350 tribunal members are charged with handling over 356,000 pending cases involving business disputes.

"The complexities in the system allow for inefficiency, a lack of the right people and the absence of technology," Surya Prakash, one of the authors of the report, told Nikkei Asia.

Because of the inefficiency and sluggish resolutions, powerful people can exploit the system -- for example by lodging cases against competitors that are costly to defend.

"Those who have money get what they want," Prakash said. "To put it bluntly, it's a den of corruption."

According to the report, which examined 10 key commercial tribunals adjudicating disputes related to tax, customs, company law and the electricity and telecom sectors, some tribunals have introduced limited online filing and digital hearings, but most remain burdened by red tape, overlapping mandates and a lack of specialized knowledge among adjudicators.

Tribunal members are often retired judges or civil servants who are unfamiliar with the complex financial, technical or tax issues they must decide on.

The tribunals were intended to ease the burden on regular courts and offer faster resolution. Many of these quasi-judicial bodies, such as the commercial tribunal, operate under the federal government and so are much more easily influenced by the state than the broader judicial system.

"The main problem is the [commercial] judicial system. Right from the inception to operations to dispute resolution in any business, every step is touched by the judicial system in India. Hence, reforms need to start here," said Prakash.

The state of the insolvency system is directly linked to the health of the financial sector, a key engine of growth, said Sumant Batra, a veteran insolvency lawyer and former president of INSOL International, a global association of accountants and lawyers specializing in insolvency.

"Delays in deciding insolvency cases under the IBC (Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code) by the NCLT (National Company Law Tribunal) have been a matter of concern," Batra said. "A distressed asset has a life cycle. Its value gradually declines with time if distress is not addressed in a timely manner. Delays in the resolution of stressed assets have a direct bearing on the ... outcomes of the economy in general and the stakeholders in particular."

According to Daksh, nearly half the judicial posts in major commercial tribunals are vacant, while the number of pending cases is in the tens of thousands. At several benches, a single judge is handling thousands of matters.

Shiva Kirti Singh, a former Supreme Court justice who also served as chairman of the telecom disputes panel, said a major change in attitude is required if business-related litigation is to be addressed effectively. "Instead of adjudicating bodies, India should have an ombudsman-like structure to actually settle the disputes," Singh said. He also cautioned that artificial intelligence and technology-related businesses require a "competent regulatory authority" in a fast-changing world.

"They are likely going to suffer in a big way unless we have a very competent regulatory approach," Singh said.

The government is promoting India as a destination for global manufacturing and foreign capital investment through its infrastructure and Make in India initiatives. But such investments depend on efficient contract enforcement and dispute resolution, and companies face uncertainty over cash flow and project timelines if vast sums are tied up in litigation.

In the 2019 edition of the World Bank's Doing Business index, India ranked poorly on enforcing contracts, with an average resolution time of more than 1,400 days. The commercial tribunal system was meant to improve that record, but Daksh's data suggests it has merely shifted the burden.

Exacerbating the problems is the complexity of the tribunal system. Governance frameworks are inconsistent, appointment procedures differ, case tracking is largely manual and there is no unified digital registry. Appeals of tribunal decisions often end up in higher courts, adding another layer to the already congested judicial hierarchy.

Legal experts recommend an independent tribunals commission to oversee appointments, monitor performance and standardize procedures. Yet such reforms have made little headway despite repeated recommendations from the state-backed Law Commission and the Supreme Court over the past decade.

Some of the resistance comes from the bureaucracy, which continues to wield enormous control over staffing, budgets and infrastructure.

"There is no doubt in anyone's mind that the law in India is quite complex," Prakash said. "Efforts have been made to simplify the law, but it has ended up simplifying the language of the law without trying to simplify the actual complexity of the substantive things.

"Ease of doing business has come up in many discussions, but it has not really percolated down to the operational level."

Source: Asia_Nikkei

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Economic

Cryptocurrency

A strategic shift in Japan’s crypto policy

According to The Asahi Shimbun, Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) is preparing a landmark regulatory reform that could redefine the country’s crypto landscape. The proposed changes would classify cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum as formal financial products, extending traditional financial oversight mechanisms including insider trading regulations into the digital asset space.

This reclassification could bring a higher level of transparency and investor protection to Japan’s crypto markets, aligning them more closely with securities regulations applied to stocks and bonds.

Lower crypto tax rate to stimulate domestic participation

One of the most significant reforms under consideration is a dramatic reduction in the tax rate on crypto gains. Currently, profits from cryptocurrency transactions can be taxed at rates up to 55% depending on income brackets. Under the new proposal, these would be standardized at a flat 20% rate, the same as capital gains on equities.

This move is likely aimed at encouraging greater domestic participation in the digital asset market by aligning crypto with traditional investment vehicles, removing a long-standing barrier to broader adoption among retail and institutional investors.

Banks and insurers may enter the crypto space

In another bold step, the FSA is reportedly planning to allow banks and insurance companies to offer crypto-related products directly to their customers. Through their securities arms, these institutions would be able to sell crypto assets to depositors and insurance policyholders potentially mainstreaming access to digital assets across Japan’s financial system.

This integration could significantly expand the crypto user base in Japan and accelerate institutional adoption, particularly if supported by clearer risk disclosures and standardized frameworks for pricing volatility.

Disclosure and transparency requirements expanded

Alongside these changes, crypto exchange service providers would face stricter requirements to disclose risks associated with price volatility. This aligns with the broader global push for enhanced transparency in crypto trading and investment platforms, especially in light of recent high-profile exchange failures and fraud scandals worldwide.

By mandating more detailed risk reporting, the FSA aims to equip investors with better tools to evaluate their exposure, potentially improving trust in Japanese crypto markets.

Timing and political outlook

The FSA intends to propose the necessary legislation during Japan’s next ordinary parliamentary session in 2026. While not yet formally confirmed by the agency, the report suggests that these changes could be a cornerstone of Japan’s strategy to remain a leading, innovation-friendly, yet regulated crypto hub in Asia, especially as rivals like Singapore and South Korea refine their own regulatory approaches.

Japan’s proposed crypto reforms represent a comprehensive strategy to legitimize and normalize digital asset trading within its financial system. By aligning tax policies with equity trading, introducing stronger regulatory oversight, and integrating crypto into mainstream banking and insurance channels, the country is positioning itself at the forefront of regulated crypto innovation. If passed, these measures could have ripple effects across Asia’s regulatory landscape and possibly spark a more investor-friendly phase of global crypto adoption.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

Cryptocurrency

From all-time high to annual loss in just over a month

In a dramatic reversal, Bitcoin has dropped below $95,000, effectively erasing its gains for 2025 after briefly reaching a record high of $126,251 on October 6. Triggered by a series of shock tariff announcements by President Donald Trump and broader risk aversion in financial markets, the flagship cryptocurrency is now trading below the levels it held at the end of 2024.

As of early Monday morning in Singapore, Bitcoin had pared some of its losses, hovering near $94,869, but remains firmly in bear market territory.

Market sentiment flips as institutional buyers pull back

Institutional investors once the driving force behind Bitcoin’s 2025 rally are now stepping away. ETF inflows, which had once added over $25 billion and redefined Bitcoin as a serious portfolio asset, have slowed dramatically. Bitwise CIO Matthew Hougan said crypto’s drop signaled a broader “risk-off” shift in markets, with Bitcoin leading the pullback.

The selloff, analysts argue, is fueled by a mix of factors: long-term holders taking profits, institutional outflows, broader macro uncertainty, and the forced liquidation of overleveraged positions.

Tariff policy and political whiplash spark volatility

The turning point came just four days after Bitcoin’s all-time high, when Trump’s unexpected comments on trade tariffs sent global markets including crypto into a tailspin. Bitcoin, which had benefited from Trump’s earlier pro-crypto stance, proved highly sensitive to political volatility, underscoring how speculative sentiment is driving price action more than fundamentals.

The impact of this sudden policy shift is still being felt. As Chris Weston of Pepperstone Group noted, the October 10 liquidation event inflicted lasting psychological damage on major players, many of whom remain cautious.

Skepticism dominates as retail and altcoin markets bleed

Retail sentiment has soured significantly. Hougan noted that many investors are retreating early, fearing another major pullback. Meanwhile, altcoins especially smaller and less liquid tokens have been hit even harder. The MarketVector index tracking the bottom 50 of the top 100 digital assets is down roughly 60% year-to-date, amplifying investor losses across the board.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc., once a bellwether for corporate crypto adoption, is now trading close to the value of its Bitcoin holdings, signaling a collapse in investor confidence in leveraged crypto plays.

No bullish catalysts, no natural recovery signals

Despite long-term optimism from some quarters, including Hougan who frames this pullback as a potential buying opportunity, sentiment remains subdued. Ergonia research director Chris Newhouse summarized the mood across Telegram chats and conferences: capital deployment is on hold, and few expect a near-term catalyst to reverse the trend.

Without clearer regulatory frameworks or a stabilizing macroeconomic backdrop, the market appears locked in a prolonged correction. Even among insiders, there’s a growing consensus that crypto’s current cycle may take time and policy clarity to reverse.

Bitcoin’s plunge below $95,000 isn’t just a technical move it reflects a deeper erosion of investor confidence, shaped by macro shocks, policy whiplash, and the withdrawal of institutional flows. As the Trump administration’s trade agenda adds fresh volatility to markets, crypto finds itself once again on the front line of global risk aversion. Whether this correction marks a consolidation phase or the start of a deeper slide may depend on the next moves in Washington as much as in the blockchain.

Source: Bloomberg

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Economic

Quarterly contraction reveals mounting trade pressures

Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 0.4% in the July–September quarter of 2025, marking the country's first economic contraction in six quarters. Annualized, this decline equates to a 1.8% drop less severe than market expectations of a 0.6% quarterly fall, but still significant. The downturn reflects intensifying trade headwinds, particularly the impact of new U.S. import tariffs.

A key driver of the contraction was exports, which fell by 1.2% from the previous quarter and 4.5% on an annualized basis. Japanese exporters had previously accelerated shipments to beat the implementation of the tariffs, inflating earlier export figures, but the latest data show the impact of the trade barrier now taking full effect.

Trump's tariffs strike at the heart of Japan's industrial economy

The tariffs raised to 15% from a previous 25% on nearly all Japanese imports are a major blow to Japan’s manufacturing sector, particularly automakers like Toyota, Honda, and Nissan. Despite efforts by these firms to shift production abroad in recent years, Japan remains heavily reliant on export revenues, especially to the U.S. market.

The Cabinet Office noted that while private consumption inched up by 0.1% and imports dipped 0.1%, it wasn’t enough to offset the drag from declining exports. This weakness reflects the fragility of Japan’s domestic demand and its dependence on global trade dynamics.

Political stability returns, but economic risks linger

Adding to the economic uncertainty has been recent political transition. Only in October did Sanae Takaichi assume the role of prime minister, ending a period of internal instability. While her administration may bring some policy clarity, the structural challenges such as an aging population, sluggish domestic consumption, and global trade volatility remain unaddressed in the short term.

Japan’s Q3 2025 GDP contraction is a warning sign for an economy long dependent on exports, now caught in the crossfire of geopolitical trade policy. With Trump’s revived protectionist stance reshaping global trade, Japan faces a renewed test of its resilience and must either adapt its economic strategy or risk prolonged stagnation in a less predictable global environment.

Source: AP

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Economic

BNPL's mainstream rise conceals troubling patterns

Once hailed as a convenient alternative to credit cards, Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services like Klarna, Affirm, and Afterpay are now powering a silent financial wave that has grown both in size and systemic risk. With over 91.5 million U.S. users and 25% reportedly using BNPL to purchase groceries, the line between responsible spending and financial distress is rapidly blurring.

Nigel Morris, the Capital One co-founder and early Klarna investor, warned at Web Summit that people turning to BNPL for essentials is a sign of widespread economic strain. His concern is backed by recent data: default rates are accelerating, with 42% of BNPL users making at least one late payment in 2025 up from 34% in 2023.

Phantom debt and lack of visibility pose systemic risk

A critical flaw in the BNPL model is its lack of transparency. Most BNPL loans aren’t reported to credit bureaus, leading to so-called “phantom debt.” Borrowers may have multiple simultaneous BNPL loans, often with different providers, with no centralized system to track their cumulative exposure. Lenders are effectively flying blind, unaware that their customers might be overleveraged across platforms.

According to a 2025 CFPB report, 63% of BNPL users originated multiple loans in a single year, and 33% borrowed from several platforms simultaneously. Moreover, subprime borrowers are heavily represented in the user base, with approval rates for high-risk users exceeding 78%.

Regulatory reversals create further instability

The regulatory landscape has only added to the confusion. Under the Biden administration, BNPL loans were briefly slated for oversight under the Truth in Lending Act. But in 2025, the Trump-era CFPB reversed course, removing protections and declaring such oversight a “burden” on businesses. This rollback leaves consumers unprotected and the financial system exposed.

While the CFPB later released a report highlighting high repayment rates among first-time BNPL users, this contradicted broader data showing rising delinquencies. The mismatch underscores a major data gap, as lenders and regulators lack long-term visibility into borrower behavior especially among repeat or high-frequency users.

From retail checkout to embedded infrastructure

BNPL’s transformation from a fringe offering to mainstream infrastructure is accelerating. Klarna is now a licensed bank in Europe. Affirm has nearly 2 million debit cardholders. Both companies integrate seamlessly into Apple Pay and Google Pay, making installment debt practically invisible at checkout. PayPal processed $33 billion in BNPL transactions in 2024 alone.

Even traditional banks and payment processors like JPMorgan and Stripe are embedding BNPL options into their systems. As Morris notes, fintechs and SaaS companies alike are discovering that embedded finance may eventually generate more revenue than their core businesses.

A second, hidden bubble: B2B BNPL and securitization

The next phase of this boom may be even riskier: B2B BNPL. With $4.9 trillion in trade credit outstanding among U.S. firms, this market dwarfs the consumer space. BNPL providers are now targeting this arena, encouraging small businesses to increase spending by 40% on average often financed by rapidly growing, opaque debt.

Debt packaging is already underway. KKR purchased up to $44 billion in BNPL debt from PayPal. Elliott Advisors took on Klarna’s $39 billion loan book. Affirm has issued $12 billion in asset-backed securities. These moves eerily mirror the subprime mortgage playbook: slicing risky loans, repackaging them, and selling them to investors under unclear risk assumptions.

Consumer defaults could trigger spillover effects

Although BNPL balances are smaller than credit card or auto loans, the spillover risk is real. Because consumers prioritize BNPL repayments to maintain access to immediate purchases, they may default first on credit cards, auto loans, or student debt. This behavior skews financial risk models and could lead to wider delinquencies in traditional lending markets.

With student loan repayments resuming and unemployment hitting 4.3%, the underlying economic stress on borrowers is increasing. Over 5.3 million Americans are already in default on student loans, and 4.3 million are delinquent, according to Congressional data.

The ethical dilemma and the ‘mom test’

Morris, reflecting on his own Capital One legacy, raised an ethical concern: Are fintechs empowering the underbanked, or enabling self-harm? He referenced the “mom test” a principle from his lending days: if you wouldn’t recommend the product to your own mother, it shouldn’t be sold.

Worryingly, he believes some BNPL firms deliberately avoid reporting to credit bureaus to prevent customers from “graduating” to cheaper credit. It’s a business model built on repeat usage rather than financial advancement a potentially exploitative strategy.

An unregulated shadow banking system is taking root

BNPL may have started as a novel checkout solution, but it is rapidly becoming embedded in the fabric of global finance. Its current lack of visibility, limited regulation, and growing exposure to vulnerable populations create the conditions for a potentially cascading crisis.

Morris isn’t sounding the alarm for a crash yet. But with “phantom debt,” rising unemployment, and financial stress converging, he sees storm clouds gathering. As BNPL moves deeper into both consumer and business finance, the time for scrutiny is now before this invisible debt bubble becomes too large to contain.

Source: TechCrunch

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Forex

Commodity

Economic

Energy – Novorossiysk resumes oil shipments

ICE Brent settled almost 1.2% higher last week after a Friday rally following a Ukrainian attack on the Russian port of Novorossiysk. This led to a temporary suspension of oil exports from the port, which handles approximately 2.2m b/d of oil, including Kazakhstan crude from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal. However, reports that port operations resumed saw oil prices coming under pressure early today.

While the oil market is expected to remain in a large surplus through 2026, it is also facing growing supply risks. The scale and intensity of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure are picking up. In addition to Friday's attack on Novorossiysk, Ukraine claimed responsibility for a strike overnight on Rosneft's 170k b/d Novokuibyshevsk refinery.

Risks are also emerging elsewhere, with Iran seizing an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman after it passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait is a key choke point for the global oil market, with around 20m b/d passing through it.

The latest positioning data shows that speculators increased their net long in ICE Brent by 12,636 lots over the last reporting week to 164,867 lots as of last Tuesday. This was predominantly driven by short covering. It suggests that some participants are reluctant to be short at the moment amid supply risks related to uncertainty over sanctions.

Speculators also increased their net long in ICE gasoil over the last week amid growing concerns over tightness in the middle distillate market. Speculators purchased 11,797 lots, leaving them with a net long position of 98,286 lots. The impact of sanctions on Russian diesel exports, along with continued Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, means tightness concerns are unlikely to disappear anytime soon, particularly as we head deeper into winter.

Metals – Complex under pressure

LME copper and aluminium pared weekly gains as China's economy cooled more than expected in October. Record-low investment and slower industrial growth compounded already weak consumer demand. Copper saw a little more than a 1% weekly gain in London, extending a year-to-date rally of over 20%. This is being driven by supply disruptions and trade risks linked to potential US tariffs. Some relief emerged as Freeport-McMoRan resumed partial operations at Indonesia's Grasberg mine after a fatal accident halted output in September. Aluminium held modest weekly gains, supported by concerns that Chinese smelters are nearing government-imposed capacity limits, constraining supply. Primary aluminium output in October reached 3.8mt (+0.4% year-on-year), but fell 9% from September.

The latest data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) shows weekly inventories for base metals -- except copper -- rose over the reporting period. Copper stocks declined for the fourth consecutive week, down 5,628 tonnes to 109,407 tonnes as of Friday. Aluminium inventories increased by 1,564 tonnes to 114,899 tonnes after four weeks of declines. Lead stocks rose by 4,208 tonnes for a second straight week to 42,790 tonnes. Nickel and zinc inventories also climbed, reaching 40,573 tonnes (+9.1% week on week) and 100,892 tonnes (+0.7% WoW), respectively.

Agriculture – India set to resume wheat exports

Recent reports suggest that India may resume wheat product exports (wheat flour and semolina) after more than three years of curbs. This reflects strong domestic supplies and an expected bumper harvest. The Ministry of Commerce and Industry is expected to initially permit 1mt of shipments. This follows India's recent approval of 1.5mt of sugar exports over the 2025/26 season.

The latest fortnightly report from the Brazilian Sugarcane and Bioenergy Industry Association (UNICA) shows sugarcane crushing in Central-South Brazil stood at 31.1mt in the second half of October, an increase of 14.3% YoY. Sugar output over this period rose 16.4% YoY to 2.1mt. Meanwhile, the sugar mix in CS Brazil over the fortnight was 46.02%. That's up slightly from 45.9% a year ago, but down from the previous fortnight. The cumulative cane crush so far this season still lags last year, down 2% to stand at 556mt, while cumulative sugar production totals 38.1mt, up 1.6% YoY.