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SYMBOL
LAST
BID
ASK
HIGH
LOW
NET CHG.
%CHG.
SPREAD
SPX
S&P 500 Index
6837.63
6837.63
6837.63
6878.28
6827.18
-32.77
-0.48%
--
DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
47679.60
47679.60
47679.60
47971.51
47611.93
-275.38
-0.57%
--
IXIC
NASDAQ Composite Index
23503.18
23503.18
23503.18
23698.93
23455.05
-74.94
-0.32%
--
USDX
US Dollar Index
99.010
99.090
99.010
99.160
98.730
+0.060
+ 0.06%
--
EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar
1.16387
1.16394
1.16387
1.16717
1.16162
-0.00039
-0.03%
--
GBPUSD
Pound Sterling / US Dollar
1.33265
1.33273
1.33265
1.33462
1.33053
-0.00047
-0.04%
--
XAUUSD
Gold / US Dollar
4186.56
4186.97
4186.56
4218.85
4175.92
-11.35
-0.27%
--
WTI
Light Sweet Crude Oil
58.602
58.632
58.602
60.084
58.495
-1.207
-2.02%
--

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Brent Crude Futures Settle At $62.49/Bbl, Down $1.26, 1.98 Percent

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Trump: Farming Equipment Has Gotten Too Expensive

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Trump: We Will Take Off A Lot Of Environment Rules That Affect Tractor Companies

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Kremlin Says Still No Word On US-Ukraine Talks In Florida

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Trump: USA Will Take Small Portion Of Tariff Revenues To Give It To Farmers

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Trump: Taking Action To Protect Farmers

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Nymex January Gasoline Futures Closed At $1.7981 Per Gallon, And Nymex January Heating Oil Futures Closed At $2.2982 Per Gallon

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USA Crude Oil Futures Settle At $58.88/Bbl, Down $1.20, 2.00 Percent

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Netflix Co-CEO On Warner Bros Deal: We Are Very Confident That Regulators Should And Will Approve It

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Alina Habba, The Interim Federal Prosecutor For New Jersey, Has Resigned. This Follows An Appeals Court Ruling That President Trump's Nomination Of Her Was Illegitimate

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Netflix Co-CEO On Paramount Skydance Bid For Warner Bros Says The Move Was Entirely Expected- UBS Conf

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U.S. Senate Democratic Member And Antitrust Activist Warren Stated That Paramount Skydance's Hostile Takeover Offer Triggered A "Level 5 Antitrust Alert."

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Benin Government: Coup Plotters Kidnapped Two Senior Military Officials Who Were Later Freed

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Canada: G7 Finance Ministers Discussed Export Controls And Critical Minerals In Call

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Benin Government: Nigeria Carried Out Air Strikes To Help Thwart Coup Bid

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Fitch: Expects General Government (Gg) Deficit To Fall Modestly In Canada And But Rise Modestly In USA In 2026

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An Important Point Of Consensus Was Concern Regarding Application Of Non-Market Policies, Including Export Controls, To Critical Minerals Supply Chains

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Fitch: Despite Full-Year Impact Of Tariffs, We Expect USA Fiscal Deficit To Widen In 2026 Due To Additional Tax Cuts Under One Big Beautiful Bill Act

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Private Equity Firm Cinven Has Signed A £190 Million Deal To Acquire A Majority Stake In UK Advisory Firm Flint Global

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Bank Of England's Taylor Expects Inflation To Fall To Target 'In The Near Term'

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          China Wealth Manager Zhongzhi Flags Insolvency, Liabilities of $64 Bln

          Thomas

          Economic

          Summary:

          The worsening woes at Zhongzhi, a major player in China's $3 trillion shadow banking sector - roughly the size of the French economy - is set to reignite worries about the ripple effect of the property debt crisis on the broader financial sector.

          China's Zhongzhi Enterprise Group told investors it is heavily insolvent with liabilities of up to $64 billion, more than double its assets, as one of the country's leading wealth managers grapples with a deepening property sector crisis.
          The firm, which has sizable exposure to China's real estate sector, apologised to its investors in a letter that said it had total liabilities of about 420 billion yuan ($58 billion) to 460 billion yuan ($64 billion).
          The liabilities compared to Zhongzhi's estimated total assets of about 200 billion yuan ($27 billion), according to the letter, which was issued on Wednesday and was seen by Reuters.
          Beijing-based Zhongzhi did not immediately respond a Reuters request for comment.
          The worsening woes at Zhongzhi, a major player in China's $3 trillion shadow banking sector - roughly the size of the French economy - is set to reignite worries about the ripple effect of the property debt crisis on the broader financial sector.
          China's highly indebted property sector has been reeling from a liquidity crunch since 2020. Defaults by developers since late 2021 have impeded economic growth and rattled global markets.
          Shadow banking-linked wealth managers in China typically operate outside many of the rules governing commercial banks and mainly channel the proceeds of wealth products sold to retail investors to real estate developers and other sectors.
          Signs of trouble at the Zhongzhi group first came to light in July when Zhongrong International Trust Co, a leading trust company controlled by Zhongzhi, missed payments on dozens of investment products.
          Zhongzhi, whose business interests span from mining to wealth management, said in the letter that as the group's assets were concentrated in long-term debt and equity investments it was difficult to liquidate them and book the returns.
          "Initial inspections show that the group is seriously insolvent and has significant continuing operational risks. The resources available for debt repayment in the short term are much lower than the group's overall debt scale," it said.
          "The Zhongzhi group deeply apologises for the losses caused to investors. We fully understand the urgency, importance and seriousness of resolving this overall risk," the group said in the letter.
          Zhongzhi had hired one of the Big Four accounting firms to conduct an audit of the firm, and was seeking strategic investors, its management told investors in a meeting in August, according to a video seen by Reuters at the time.
          Starting off with timber and real estate trades in the 1990s, Zhongzhi quickly expanded into businesses ranging from chipmaking, healthcare, new energy vehicles and finance, according to its website.
          Its financial businesses include trust, asset management, insurance, futures, and wealth management.
          Zhongzhi has been selling stakes in some listed companies it controlled over the past few years, and reducing the size of its business, after coming under pressure in the wake of China's crackdown on shadow banking, and the property market downturn.

          Source: Reuters

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Latest News on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (November 23)

          Thomas

          Palestinian-Israeli conflict

          Latest news on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

          0:01
          The Iraqi people took to the streets to demonstrate and demand that the Iraqi resistance forces continue to attack US bases in Iraq and Syria.
          Latest News on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (November 23)_1

          Picture: On November 22, during a funeral in Baghdad, mourners carried the coffin of an Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades fighter who was killed by a US airstrike in Youlf Sahar, south of Baghdad.

          0:29
          The Iraqi government condemned the U.S. attack on paramilitary forces stationed south of the capital Baghdad, saying it was an attempt to destabilize the security situation in the Arab country.
          0:42
          Peter Lerner, an IDF military spokesman from the London borough of Harrow, confirmed that the IDF intends to continue air strikes in Gaza even if all prisoners are released.
          1:06
          Pakistan's Quds Force: We attacked four Israeli military vehicles in Beit Hanoun, west of Beit Lahiya, and around Sheikh Zayed Tower in the northern Gaza Strip.
          1:37
          The Israel Defense Forces said an anti-aircraft missile system intercepted a cruise missile over the southern port city of Eilat.
          3:22
          BREAKING: A car bomb hits the border point between the U.S. and Canada.
          A car carrying a bomb exploded as it approached a border checkpoint between the United States and Canada. As a result, two people in the car were killed while trying to detonate the car near the border crossing.
          3:35
          Israeli National Security Minister Ben Gvir said: If Israel does not resume the war after the ceasefire in Gaza, there will be nothing for me to do within its government.
          4:38
          Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: I ordered Mossad to carry out assassinations against Hamas leaders wherever they are.
          4:46
          Latest News on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (November 23)_2 Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged global support for Gaza, calling for prompt and sustained humanitarian aid.
          6:17
          The Palestinian Government Media Office in Gaza: The death toll caused by Israel's ongoing war has risen to 14,532, including approximately 6,000 children.
          6:32
          Russian President Vladimir Putin said: It is our sacred duty to help the people of Gaza.
          Previously, there was news that the Russian military was considering providing anti-aircraft missile systems to Lebanese Hezbollah.
          7:02
          The Israel Defense Forces are launching heavy air strikes on the southern Gaza Strip city of Rafah.
          7:42
          Al Jazeera: Israeli warplanes continue to bomb the Gaza Strip as Palestinians await the announcement of the start of an agreed-upon four-day truce.
          10:18
          Yemeni military media said: The commander of the Yemeni Navy visited the seized "Galaxy Leader" ship and comforted the crew.
          12:15
          Tzachi Hanegbi, chairman of Israel's National Security Council, said the fighting would not stop today.
          12:57
          U.S. Army Central Command announced that the USS Thomas Hutner shot down multiple suicide drones launched by the Houthi armed forces in Yemen.
          13:14
          Russia remains silent on Iran-aided weapons as Ukraine shoots down Iranian-made drone.
          Authorities in Ukraine's Odessa region shot down a "rare" Mohajer-6 drone on Tuesday. The Mohajer-6 is designed for reconnaissance and attack. It can carry four missiles and has a range of up to 12 hours. 200 kilometers.
          13:46
          Qatar Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: The ceasefire start date will be announced in the next few hours.
          13:59
          The Israel Defense Forces continue to bomb Gaza! There is no ceasefire today!
          14:21
          Israeli warplanes destroyed the municipal building in Al-Qarara, north of Khan Yunis in the Gaza Strip.
          14:46
          Palestinian officials said details on the prisoner list were delayed by "last minute" delays.
          A Palestinian official told AFP that delays in the implementation of the truce were due to "last-minute" details of which prisoners would be released and how.
          15:15
          The director-general of the Indonesian Ministry of Health said: The Israeli occupying forces warned us to evacuate the hospital within 4 hours.
          17:56
          The Israel Defense Forces are launching an attack in the Balata refugee camp in the West Bank.
          18:16
          The United Nations says seven Palestinian women died every two hours during Israel's invasion of Gaza.
          19:47
          Hezbollah claimed responsibility for launching 48 Katyusha rockets in northern Israel.
          20:40
          The Qassam Brigades affiliated with Hamas said: The Qassam Brigades used 114 mm short-range "Lajum" missiles to attack the Israeli military assembly area at Kibbutz "Holit".
          21:31
          Joint statement from the IDF Spokesperson and the Shin Bet Spokesperson: The director of Shifa Hospital was arrested and taken away for questioning by the Shin Bet after extensive testimony revealed that under his direct management the hospital was a member of the Hamas terrorist organization 's headquarters.
          22:18
          Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said: The humanitarian truce will begin at 7:00 am on Friday, and the exchange of the first batch of hostages will take place at 4:00 pm that day.
          The first batch of 13 hostages, including women and children, will be handed over tomorrow Friday around 4:00 p.m.
          The main goal is the safety of the hostages, so their delivery route will not be revealed.
          Fifty hostages will be released from Gaza within four days in exchange for 150 Palestinian women and children prisoners, 13 of whom will be included on the first day.
          The truce will last only 4 days and can be extended.
          22:40
          The Israeli Prime Minister's Office confirmed the ceasefire and exchange of hostages: Israel confirmed that it had received the preliminary list.
          Responsible officers are reviewing the details of the list and are currently contacting all families.
          23:02
          A spokesman for the Qatari Foreign Ministry stressed: "Our main goal in the agreement is to lead to another ceasefire and an end to the war. The Red Cross and Red Crescent will be an integral part of the process of handing over the abductees. We have confirmed that all will The abductees released in the first phase are still alive.
          23:07
          BREAKING: Israeli fighter jets launched massive airstrikes on Gaza City hours before a four-day humanitarian standstill in Gaza.

          Article source: "The Gift of the Beautiful Fairy" WeChat public account

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Comments
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          Every Country Needs an Inflation Reduction Act

          Damon

          Economic

          Lawmakers in South Korea blasted the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act as a betrayal. European Union leaders worried it would leave the bloc’s companies at a disadvantage. And big miners like Australia’s Fortescue FMG.AX said it left them little choice but to direct a lot of spending to the United States. Yet concerns about market distortion from the policy intended to stimulate investment in the energy transition and signed into law by President Joe Biden in August 2022 are easing. Other countries are realising they need to adapt the blueprint.
          The Biden administration’s willingness to negotiate on its package of $370 billion of tax breaks and other measures has helped. That has mollified fears among major U.S. allies that the legislation’s push to boost manufacturing stateside would shut them out. Seoul lobbied hard with decent success, for example, to allow electric vehicles manufactured in South Korea and sold in the United States to be eligible for the IRA’s $7,500 tax credit. Australia struck a deal with Washington in May over critical minerals that paves the way for companies Down Under to gain access to the legislation’s financial benefits, while the European Union is still in discussions over those and other issues.
          Every Country Needs an Inflation Reduction Act_1
          Such progress has allowed the law’s real power to shine: its ability to unlock private capital for green products. The IRA contains tax credits to stimulate consumer demand for everything from electric vehicles to heat pumps, and funds to jolt companies into action. In the first 12 months of the act, more than 270 new clean energy projects with some $130 billion-worth of investments were unveiled, per Bank of America.
          All in, the IRA could spur $3 trillion in renewable energy technology investment by 2032 – and by 2050 encourage up to $11 trillion of total investment in infrastructure, Goldman Sachs reckons. That means jobs – almost 1.5 million new ones in the U.S. by 2030 – per Labor Energy Partnership estimates.
          It’s an enticing mix of emissions reductions, more employment and a boost to productivity for politicians around the globe to try to emulate. The trick is finding how to pay for it. Granted, over time the increased economic activity and concomitant tax revenue – not to mention environment-based disasters averted if rising temperatures can be stopped – could cover the initial outlay many times over.
          Every Country Needs an Inflation Reduction Act_2
          Trouble is, governments also need to show that they will be fiscally responsible stewards of the energy transition in the short term – especially with inflation still a threat and budgets under pressure.
          The U.S. national debt, for example, stands at some 120% of GDP, offering no wiggle room even before considering Congress’ increasingly frequent battles over funding the government. So the flipside of the IRA’s ledger mandated that big companies pay at least a 15% tax on their earnings, regardless of whatever legal ways exist to reduce what they hand over to Uncle Sam. It also introduced a 1% levy on share buybacks and allowed the federal government’s health insurance programme, Medicare, to negotiate what it pays for some drugs and cap how much prices increase. On paper at least, that offsets most of the headline cost of the act.
          Japan chose a different path for its Green Transformation Act which parliament passed in March. It involves using the proceeds from selling some 20 trillion yen ($135 billion) of government debt to entice 150 trillion yen ($1 trillion) of private capital over the next decade. By one metric, that is a massive stretch: the country’s debt to GDP already stands at a whopping 220% or so but with interest rates still negative for now, borrowing costs remain very low. And the plan envisages using revenue from a future carbon levy and an emissions trading scheme to pay off the debt.
          Yet while Washington is aiming to catalyse demand for green products made mostly with existing technology, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s administration has other ideas. It intends to channel more than a third of the cash raised into technologies that are either in the early stages of development, like clean hydrogen and ammonia, or are older but niche like carbon capture and storage. Their success at reducing greenhouse-gas emissions is far from guaranteed and could take a decade or more to be useful at scale, leaving Japan on a slow path to decarbonisation.
          The EU is in a tougher spot as it generally does not allow its member countries, with diverse credit ratings and funding costs, to borrow money as a group. So it has suspended some rules prohibiting state aid and is diverting some of its remaining pandemic-era funds into clean energy projects. That is a piecemeal, knee-jerk reaction to IRA concerns. Plus, last week Germany’s constitutional court ruled as unconstitutional the government’s 2021 decision to divert 60 billion euros of unused debt from to its climate and transformation fund.
          One country that is well placed to follow the U.S.' climate funding lead is Australia. Though inflation remains stubborn Down Under, Canberra is running a small budget surplus. Net federal debt is relatively low at just 40% or so of GDP and there’s money to be found elsewhere, political will allowing. Options range from capping diesel subsidies, per think tank Climate Energy Finance, to halting some of the inflationary-looking tax cuts due to start next July.
          Jim Chalmers, the finance minister, has dropped hints that he may be working on IRA-style incentives, stating at the start of this month that they “can be part of an answer but they’re not the whole answer” to sparking the energy transition. The numbers are compelling: A$100 billion ($65 billion) of federal support could bring in around three times that in private investment, research by Climate Energy Finance and the Climate Capital Forum shows.
          The government has been pursuing individual policies to date. The latest, expected to be unveiled on Friday, involves more than tripling to 32 gigawatts the amount of renewable power and storage Canberra is willing to help underwrite, local newspaper AFR reported on Wednesday. That will speed up its pledge of having solar, wind and hydropower provide 82% of Australia’s electricity by 2030, up from around a third last year.
          A broader Aussie plan could offer IRA-style incentives to electrify power supply, cars and homes, but it could also be adapted to leverage the country’s strengths. These include a wealth of critical minerals for batteries and grids. There’s also some 10,000 times more solar radiation each year than Australia requires, and offshore wind potential that could exceed the capacity of the world’s current coal-fired power stations, per Chalmers. Harnessing all this for processing more minerals onshore, developing green hydrogen and electrifying supply chains could increase the range and economic value of exports and boost manufacturing that’s currently stuck at a lowly 6% of GDP, almost half the 2005 level. A well-targeted green stimulus along such lines could yield A$435 billion a year, Deloitte and National Australia Bank estimate.
          Done right, it would send a valuable lesson to other countries that climate subsidies aren’t just about chasing the United States' tail. And Chalmers is right that financial incentives alone are not enough to foster the shift. Change requires everything from accommodative policies to developing a trained workforce. The chance to quicken the pace of decarbonisation while powering a long-term economic boost, though, ought to make devising comprehensive, IRA-inspired legislation worth the effort.

          Source: Reuters

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          Binance Sees $956 Million in Outflows after Zhao Steps Down to Settle US Probe

          Samantha Luan

          Cryptocurrency

          Investors pulled about $956 million from crypto exchange Binance over the past 24 hours, market data showed, after its chief, Changpeng Zhao, stepped down and faced prison time after pleading guilty on Tuesday to settle a years-long U.S. illicit finance probe.
          The deal, in which Binance will pay $4.3 billion to U.S. authorities, raises questions over the future of the world's largest crypto exchange and marks another blow for an industry beset by scandals. Zhao has been replaced by Richard Teng, a senior Binance executive who joined in 2021, the company said.
          It remained unclear on Wednesday how much jail time, if any, Zhao would ultimately serve, and how much influence he - as Binance's founder and major shareholder - could continue to exert on Binance under the terms of the settlement.
          Some analysts also noted that the deal was unlikely to end the exchange's U.S. legal woes, with Securities and Exchange Commission charges alleging Binance broke U.S. securities laws still unresolved.
          "Binance is not entirely out of the woods. The ongoing civil lawsuit with the SEC remains a concern for the exchange, which (is) likely to result in further fines," wrote Robert Le, a crypto analyst at data firm PitchBook.
          Data from crypto analytics platform Nansen, which does not include bitcoin flows, signaled some investors had been rattled by the news, pulling $956 million from the exchange. Still, the outflows were small relative to the more than $65 billion of assets that remain on Binance, Nansen said.
          As it strived for market dominance, Binance shunned key checks Zhao believed would turn customers off, authorities said.
          It failed to report more than 100,000 suspicious transactions, including with organizations the U.S. described as terrorist groups such as Palestinian militant group Hamas, and never reported transactions with websites dedicated to selling child sexual abuse materials.
          Binance did not immediately respond to a request for comment, but said on Tuesday it had worked hard to make Binance "safer and even more secure." Lawyers for Zhao did not respond to requests for comment on Wednesday. On Tuesday, he conceded "I made mistakes, and I must take responsibility."

          PRISON TIME

          While authorities have probed Zhao and Binance since at least 2018, Zhao's exit marks a dramatic development for one of the most powerful figures in the crypto industry. Zhao, who resides in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), entered his plea in a Seattle court on Tuesday.
          He faces a maximum prison sentence of 18 months under federal guidelines and has agreed not to appeal any sentence up to that length. Prosecutors will take a position on how much jail time to seek closer to Zhao's Feb. 23 sentencing hearing in Seattle, a Justice Department spokesperson said on Wednesday.
          "But we do reserve the right to seek a sentence above the guidelines."
          Zhao paid a $175 million bail bond, with another $15 million held in a trust account, a court filing showed. He has agreed to return to the United States 14 days before sentencing.
          Reuters could not immediately ascertain his whereabouts on Wednesday. At Tuesday's hearing, Zhao's lawyers said he would remain in the Seattle area through Monday evening, and would be able to then return to the UAE, provided the district judge did not object to his agreement with the government, another DOJ spokesperson said.
          Later on Wednesday, federal prosecutors urged a federal judge to block Zhao from leaving the continental United States prior to his February sentencing, saying in a court filing that Zhao posed a serious flight risk despite his bail conditions.
          "There is no combination of conditions sufficient to protect against the risk of flight and ensure Zhao's return" for sentencing, the prosecutors said.
          Some legal experts said they did not expect Zhao to spend more than a year in prison, maybe less, citing Arthur Hayes, former chief of crypto exchange BitMEX, who likewise pleaded guilty to anti-money laundering violations.
          Hayes was ultimately sentenced to six months of house arrest in 2022, even though the government sought prison time. Other senior BitMEX executives charged did not serve time.
          However, FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried could spend decades in prison after being found guilty this month of defrauding customers of his now-bankrupt crypto exchange.
          Based on the alleged facts, prosecutors likely could have charged Zhao with more serious crimes carrying heavier sentences, but had to weigh that against the probability that he would have stayed abroad to avoid capture, legal experts said.
          "To get the CEO to plead guilty should not be scoffed at," said Daniel Silva, a partner at law firm Buchalter and former federal prosecutor.
          The settlement also bars Zhao from "any present or future involvement in operating or managing" Binance, which he founded in 2017 and has maintained a tight grip on since. He remains a major shareholder and said on Tuesday he will be "available to the team to consult as needed, consistent" with the deal.
          "This could give him a hook on which to exercise control – through the usual corporate governance channels (e.g., shareholder voting," Yesha Yadav, a law professor at Vanderbilt University, wrote in an email to Reuters.
          "At the same time, I imagine that the Binance will be looking to be very careful."

          Source: Reuters

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          When Will the Crisis in U.S. Housing Affordability End – and How?

          JPMorgan

          Economic

          First, the good news: The United States hasn't plunged into a recession. Despite more than a year of high interest rates, the economy has shown resilience beyond most economists' predictions.
          But the Federal Reserve (Fed) still hasn't beaten down inflation completely, and the economy's strength could be more long-term than a phase of the economic cycle. Many market participants now believe interest rates will stay higher for longer. And this is prolonging a set of tough challenges in the housing market that have almost put it into a state of suspended animation. The difficulties:
          U.S. home prices are currently at all-time highs, and less affordable (relative to income and mortgage rates) than at the height of the 2006 housing bubble. That's after prices skyrocketed by about 40% during the pandemic.
          Sales of existing homes are very depressed, as bad as after the global financial crisis.
          While buyers wait for prices to fall, sellers won't list their homes because they don't want to sacrifice the low mortgage rates they locked in before the fastest, most aggressive rate hiking cycle in 40 years.
          Prices aren't falling because the market is stuck. Demand has been reduced by high mortgage rates, but supply is even more restricted because of severe underbuilding in the 2010s, relative to population growth.
          High prices, high mortgage rates and a shortage of homes: combined, they've created today's crisis of affordability.
          How do these issues get resolved – and when?

          Rising incomes can restore affordability – given enough time

          First, here's how we don't think the crisis will be resolved: through a crash in home prices.
          The (perhaps natural) assumption is that the housing market can only return to a more “normal” state of affordability and predictable price appreciation after a drop in home prices effectively “clears” the market, and it begins a new cycle. This is certainly not an impossibility, but that would likely require a U.S. recession and a spike in job losses across the economy, neither of which are our base case for the coming years.
          Nor do we think lower mortgage rates are the solution to clearing the logjam. Indeed, surveys of homebuyers find consistently that financing rates aren't their main motivators when they make a purchase. Life stages are: People buy homes when they get married, or when they need to move as they find employment, have children or retire.
          We see another pathway that doesn't involve punishing price declines or a sizeable drop in mortgage rates. It hinges on home affordability.
          Housing affordability could be restored by incomes continuing to rise at a robust rate. We think the path to affordability, for starter homes as well as the luxury market, is that wages rise to catch up to and meet the higher costs.

          When will homes be affordable again?

          How long might it take to restore average levels of affordability – based on historical ratios of home prices to income and factoring in mortgage rates – if incomes were to keep growing at their recent pace, and if mortgage rates didn't decline and home values stayed at all-time highs?
          Our answer: about 3.5 years.
          Our analysis of the timing is notably sensitive to mortgage rates. If the market's pricing of mortgage rates were to fall by just one percentage point, U.S. homes could be affordable again in just two years.
          When Will the Crisis in U.S. Housing Affordability End – and How?_1
          The takeaway: If you are looking to buy a house in the United States, don't wait for – or expect – a home price crash. We don't foresee one coming (thankfully), nor do we think one is necessary to restore affordability at the national level. We think time and continued robust income growth can cure the problem on their own.

          Home prices vary by metro area

          So far, we've talked about the national U.S. housing market. At the city level, it's a more complicated story. Since the pandemic began, metro areas have experienced stark divergences in home price trends. That's not typical, but it's a unique feature of the current housing cycle.
          We've organized these price trends by noting price behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic, and from the pandemic's end (and each city's price peak) until now. Four categories emerge:
          Boom-bust – Mostly in the Southwest, cities such as Austin saw pandemic-era booms and have since crashed. (Home prices in Austin are down about 15% from their peak.) Supply and demand are playing roles, but especially supply. Austin housing inventories are currently 67% above December 2019.
          No boom-but still a bust – Only San Francisco didn't see much of a pandemic boom, yet it still has seen deflation of more than 10% from its peak. In our view, weak demand explains it: Tech sector layoffs and rising remote work patterns have slashed housing demand in the Bay Area.
          Boom-no bust – Mainly in the South, cities such as Miami saw home prices boom during the pandemic and have held their value. Prices in Miami are up 54% since June 2020. Major supply constraints are responsible in these markets. Miami's inventory levels are currently 40% below December 2019.
          No boom-no bust – These metros, among them New York, Washington, DC, and Chicago, didn't see much of a pandemic housing boom (after all, New York and Chicago suffered sizeable population outflows during COVID-19) and have held steady since.
          When Will the Crisis in U.S. Housing Affordability End – and How?_2

          Paths to restored affordability differ by city

          We did the same affordability analysis for large metro areas as we did for the national market, again assuming mortgage rates and home prices remain unchanged, mapping each city's path to affordability based on recent trends in income growth.
          There are a few interesting observations here.
          First, while our analysis finds affordability restored in an average 3.5 years nationally, the average time is 5.3 years for large metro areas. This is not surprising, as the large cities are where America's housing affordability problems are concentrated. (Affordability is less challenged in rural areas where land is more abundant and zoning restrictions on new development are less onerous.)
          Second, the years-to-affordability calculation for cities diverges widely, ranging from zero years for Cleveland/Detroit to more than 10 years for Miami.
          Miami's currently high housing valuations are driving this result. While the national median home price-to-income ratio currently stands at 3.95, for Miami the ratio is 6.6. (This is not altogether new, but the valuation gap has increased further in recent years: Prior to the pandemic, the national ratio was 3.74 versus 5.25 for Miami.)
          When Will the Crisis in U.S. Housing Affordability End – and How?_3

          Where does new construction fit in?

          So far, we've discussed existing homes, where the affordability crisis and the seizing up of activity have been most extreme. The story is quite different for sales of new homes, which have remained resilient and have risen strongly year-to-date (by more than 20%).
          In the market for new homes, affordability challenges are less intense due to more price deflation and because homebuilders are offering attractive incentives, including below-market mortgage rates (called “buy downs”) that make new construction more affordable.
          New construction activity has also been, and continues to be, concentrated in lower-cost-of-living metro areas where younger generations, particularly millennials, have been flocking.
          When Will the Crisis in U.S. Housing Affordability End – and How?_4
          A robust new construction market is a positive development. It could be the way out of America's severe national housing shortage. Builders, however, cannot fix the shortage overnight. Indeed, new housing unit completions make up just 1% of the nation's housing stock annually.
          Declining interest rates could speed up the home building, but they could also reignite inflation – that's the delicate balance the Fed is trying to strike. For now, we don't expect the Fed to begin cutting interest rates until the second half of next year. At that point, and especially by 2025, we think the U.S. housing market will be well on the path toward normalcy and better affordability.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Opinion: Biden Is Making More Foreign Policy Messes Than He's Fixing

          Michelle

          Political

          Notwithstanding the temporary truce and hostage deal announced Tuesday, US forces are still on hand in the Middle East to deter Iran and Hezbollah from intervening against Israel in its war with Hamas, putting American troops at risk and threatening to pull the US into another major war in the region. American troops have already been targeted by dozens of drone and missile attacks from Iranian-backed forces in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, and have conducted retaliatory strikes in response. In Eastern Europe, the US is essentially engaged in a proxy war with Russia over the latter's invasion of Ukraine. In East Asia, the US risks a catastrophic showdown with China over the political status of Taiwan.
          During his Oval Office address last month, President Joe Biden argued that all these flashpoints are interconnected fronts in what the administration has previously framed as a global struggle between democracy and autocracy. Biden referenced former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright's quote that America is “the indispensable nation,” adding that “American leadership is what holds the world together.” Biden further asserted that “making sure Israel and Ukraine succeed is vital for America's national security.” In a Washington Post op-ed this weekend, he reiterated that the US is “the essential nation.”
          These claims do not stand up to scrutiny. America's entanglement in these crises is only further overstretching its capabilities, courting unnecessary risks, inflaming local enmities and depriving the American people of resources better used at home. Indeed, the American people are increasingly reluctant to foot the bill indefinitely for military aid to conflicts abroad, with recent polls showing declining support among both Democrats and Republicans for both Israel and Ukraine.
          The decades-long US policy of maintaining permanent friends and enemies in the Middle East has been counterproductive to its stated interest in regional stability. The US in recent years antagonized Iran by imposing a “maximum pressure” campaign of economic sanctions while assassinating key Iranian military figure, Qasem Soleimani. Meanwhile, the US has inadvertently boosted Tehran's regional influence by overthrowing Saddam Hussein's government in Iraq and later by contributing arms to anti-Assad forces during the Syrian Civil War, which ultimately empowered Iran-backed militias in the fight against both ISIS and US-supported Sunni rebels.
          Nor has regional stability been advanced by the United States' partners, whose bad behavior has been enabled by unconditioned support from Washington. The US has consistently backed Israel despite its continued settlement-building in the occupied West Bank and long-standing blockade of Gaza, feeding the underlying Israeli-Palestinian conflict that now threatens to engulf the region.
          And despite its “democracy versus autocracy” rhetoric, the US supported Saudi Arabia's gruesome war against Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, which produced what the United Nations called “the worst humanitarian crisis in the world,” with some 377,000 people killed and approximately 80% of the country in need of humanitarian aid. The Biden administration has since doubled down on its security relationship with the Saudis.
          Contrary to the goal of avoiding a broader conflict in the Middle East or Ukraine, the president's Oval Office address last month instead sought to frame these crises in global terms. Biden claimed that if the US does not thwart distant adversaries, they and others will be emboldened to pursue further aggression, and American alliances will be undermined. This reasoning is based on dubious assumptions drawn from WWII and the Cold War, respectively known as the “Munich analogy” and the “domino theory.”
          Biden claimed that if Russia is not stopped in Ukraine, Putin will march on to Poland or the Baltic states. This is not plausible. Russia does not have the material capability to try to conquer Eastern Europe, even if it wanted to. Even without the US and Canada, European NATO members in 2022 spent vastly more on defense and retained many more active duty personnel than Russia, had a combined GDP nearly nine times larger, a population 3.5 times larger and their own nuclear deterrent. Russia's poor performance in Ukraine makes this fear even more remote.
          The president also made a veiled suggestion that if Russia is not decisively defeated in Ukraine, China would be emboldened to invade Taiwan. This assumption is similarly unfounded. As political scientists like Daryl Press and Jonathan Mercer have argued, states tend to predict an adversary's future behavior based on current capabilities and perceived interests rather than past behavior in a separate context. If China invaded Taiwan, it would most likely be because Beijing has a greater stake in Taiwan than Washington does, possesses a military advantage a hundred miles off its coast and believes it has no path to peaceful reunification — not because the US wavered in its support for Ukraine.
          Meanwhile, there is no sign America's treaty allies are losing faith in the credibility of its commitment to their defense. Low defense spending on the part of capable states like Japan and Germany indicates America's allies remain all too confident they can continue passing the buck to Uncle Sam. Were the US to do less for their defense, Japan and Germany would almost certainly do more out of their imperative for self-preservation — not simply surrender their sovereignty to China or Russia.
          The US should adopt a more restrained grand strategy, one that would more rigorously set priorities among foreign interests, entail fewer risks of entanglement, be less prone to provoke distant rivals and be more aligned with America's domestic resources and needs.
          First, the US should not maintain eternal allies and enemies. As former President Richard Nixon once said, “Our interests must shape our commitments, rather than the other way around.” Military alliances are commitments to wage war on another's behalf if necessary. America should therefore enter alliances to counterbalance specific threats when they emerge; as threats change, so should alliances. Alliances involve significant costs and risks and must therefore be guided by truly vital security interests, not pretensions of global leadership.
          Second, the US should stop uniting its adversaries. By framing international politics as a fight between democracy and autocracy, the US is merely ensuring that it has lots of enemies arrayed against it. The growing security alignment between China, Russia and Iran is largely based on a common threat from the United States, rather than an attempt to export a given regime type (which they don't share). The US itself has by far the most extensive record of trying to impose its own values on others by force. Prudent rapprochements with former adversaries should be made when there are no vital interests in dispute.
          Third, the United States should shift the burden of managing regional threats over to its regional partners, especially in the Middle East and Europe. Ammunition shortages resulting from the wars in Ukraine and Gaza are only one demonstration that America's resources are finite.
          Scaling back America's overextended military presence would incentivize capable regional states with an interest in self-preservation to pool forces to counterbalance local threats. Burden-shifting to regional partners would also mitigate the risk of the US getting pulled into a major war and reduce the substantial costs of maintaining forces overseas. The United States' favorable power position and distance from Eurasia allows it to pass the buck to others while remaining secure.
          Finally, if the US wants to advance democratic values around the world, it should do so by providing a compelling model of successful democracy at home that's worthy of being emulated abroad. Biden declares that “America is a beacon to the world.” Yet as America attempts to prop up its empire, its republic is hurting. We should save the republic, not the empire.

          Source: CNN

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          US Weekly Jobless Claims Fall; Business Spending on Equipment Easing

          Glendon

          Economic

          The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, but that likely does not change the view that the labor market is gradually slowing as higher interest rates cool demand in the economy.
          Though the weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Department on Wednesday also showed unemployment rolls declining for the first-time since mid-September, they remained near the highs for this year. The drop in both initial and continuing claims likely reflected ongoing challenges ironing out seasonal fluctuations from the data.
          Slowing demand for labor and subsiding inflation have led economists and financial markets to conclude the Federal Reserve was done hiking interest rates in the current cycle.
          "Looking past seasonal noise, we think the claims data are consistent with a job market that is cooling enough to keep rate hikes off the table, but too strong to make rate cuts a consideration any time soon," said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York.
          Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 209,000 for the week ended Nov. 18. The decline more than reversed the jump in the prior week, which had lifted claims to a three-month high. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 226,000 claims for the latest week.
          The data was released a day early because of the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.
          Unadjusted claims rose 21,239 to 238,677 last week. Claims in California surged 7,911. There were also significant increases in filings in Kentucky, Oregon, Kentucky and Illinois. Only Texas reported a decrease in claims in excess of 1,000.
          US Weekly Jobless Claims Fall; Business Spending on Equipment Easing_1
          Minutes of the Fed's Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting published on Tuesday showed that while policymakers viewed labor market conditions as having "remained tight," they noted that "they had eased since earlier in the year, partly as a result of recent increases in labor supply."
          Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. Prices of shorter-dated U.S. Treasuries fell.

          LABOR MARKET SLOWING

          Financial markets are anticipating a rate cut in the middle of 2024, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Most economists, however, view a rate cut as premature.
          Indeed, a survey from the University of Michigan on Wednesday showed consumers this month anticipating higher inflation both in the near and long term. The rise in inflation expectations, especially over the next five years to the highest level since 2011, could worry policymakers. Since March 2022, the U.S. central bank has hiked its policy rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25%-5.50% range.
          US Weekly Jobless Claims Fall; Business Spending on Equipment Easing_2
          "This will remind policymakers that it will be some time before the Fed can consider the 2021-22 surge in inflation to have truly been contained and reversed," said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital in New York.
          But other economists were not too concerned, with Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan, arguing that "we should also keep in mind that this increase in inflation expectations has not been evident to the same degree in some other related measures."
          A survey from the New York Fed this month showed softer inflation expectations in October.
          The claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed businesses for the nonfarm payrolls component of November's employment report.
          Claims rose marginally between the October and November survey weeks. The economy created 150,000 jobs in October.
          Though the labor market is steadily slowing, there are signs the moderation is broadening out. According to the Bank of America Institute, an analysis of internal data showed a rise in "pay disruptions" over 2023, consistent with rising joblessness.
          It noted that this phenomenon, previously confined to higher-income groups, appeared to be extending to middle- and lower-income cohorts. The institute also said there was a significant slowdown in job-to-job moves, consistent with slower hiring and workers' reluctance to move against an uncertain economic backdrop.
          Data next week on the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, will offer more clues on the health of the labor market in November. Continuing claims fell 22,000 to 1.840 million during the week ending Nov. 11, the latest claims report showed. They had increased since mid-September, hitting a two-year high in early November.
          Most economists expect them to resume their upward trend in the coming weeks. A combination of easing labor market conditions and difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations following an unprecedented surge in applications for jobless benefits early in the COVID-19 pandemic have pushed continuing claims higher.
          Slowing economic demand was evident in a report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday showing business spending on equipment struggling to rebound early in the fourth quarter. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, dipped 0.1% last month after falling 0.2% in September, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said.
          Core capital goods shipments were unchanged for a second straight month. Shipments of non-defense capital goods dropped 0.3% following a 0.2% decline in the prior month.
          These shipments feed into the calculation of equipment spending in the gross domestic product report. Business spending on equipment contracted in the third quarter. The economy grew at a 4.9% annualized rate in the July-September quarter. Growth estimates for the fourth quarter are mostly below a 2% pace.
          "It's true that the recent drop-back in bond yields may provide some support for investment, but borrowing costs are likely to remain considerably higher than they were a couple of years ago for the foreseeable future," said Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics. "And with banks continuing to tighten lending standards too, there appears to be little chance of an imminent recovery."
          US Weekly Jobless Claims Fall; Business Spending on Equipment Easing_3

          Source: REUTERS

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
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