Black Friday 2025: Consumer Hesitancy Meets Early Holiday Momentum in a Shifting Retail Landscape

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Asian stock markets were mixed on Friday, taking in slightly positive signals from Europe and no guidance from Wall Street due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Traders continued to respond to growing expectations of a U.S. Fed rate cut in December after soft economic data and dovish comments from several Fed officials. The global equity rally seen over the past week also slowed.

Markets now price in an 84.7 percent chance of a 25-basis-point cut in December, sharply higher than 30.1 percent just a week earlier, with additional cuts expected next year.

In Australia, stocks traded slightly higher in choppy action, extending gains from earlier sessions. The S&P/ASX 200 held above 8,600 as strength in gold miners and tech names offset weakness in iron ore miners and financials. Major miners were mixed, while technology stocks such as Appen, Xero and WiseTech gained. Banks traded mostly lower, and gold miners advanced modestly.

Japanese shares were slightly weaker as the Nikkei slipped below 50,150, pressured by declines in exporters and tech stocks, though financials provided some support. SoftBank gained, while Fast Retailing and major chip equipment makers declined. Economic data showed retail sales and industrial production rising in October, both beating expectations. Inflation in Tokyo's Ku-area remained above the Bank of Japan's target, while unemployment held at 2.6 percent.

Elsewhere, South Korea, Hong Kong and Malaysia traded lower, while New Zealand, Singapore and Taiwan edged higher. European markets finished modestly positive, and crude oil extended its decline ahead of the OPEC+ meeting.

Source: IC Markets

The AUDUSD rate is moderately rising, having consolidated above the 0.6500 level. The Reserve Bank of Australia does not plan to cut rates in the near term. Discover more in our analysis for 28 November 2025.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: private sector credit in Australia rose by 0.7% month-on-month in October
• Current trend: upward momentum
• AUDUSD forecast for 28 November 2025: 0.6430 or 0.6550

Fundamental analysis

According to the published data, private sector credit in Australia grew by 0.7% month-on-month in October 2025, exceeding both last month's figure and market expectations of 0.6% growth. On an annual basis, private sector credit increased by 7.3%.

The Australian dollar is rising, reaching a two-week high. Inflation growth in Q3 strengthens the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Markets now estimate the likelihood of a rate cut in May next year at just 7%, down from 40% earlier, and even price in a 40% chance of a rate hike by the end of 2026.

AUDUSD technical analysis

The AUDUSD pair is showing solid growth after reversing upwards from the daily support level at 0.6430. The Alligator indicator is pointing upwards, confirming bullish momentum. The key resistance level is 0.6550.

The short-term AUDUSD forecast suggests growth towards the 0.6550 resistance level and higher if the bulls maintain initiative. However, if bears reverse the price downwards, the pair could slip towards support near 0.6430.

Summary

The AUDUSD pair is rising moderately, consolidating above 0.6500. Unlike the Fed, the Reserve Bank of Australia does not intend to cut rates in the near term.

Source: RoboForex

German unemployment dropped by 25,700, bringing the unemployment figure to 2.885 million, a surprisingly positive outcome. According to the just-released data, seasonally adjusted unemployment increased by 1,000, keeping the unemployment rate unchanged at 6.3%.

Today's labour market numbers will bring some relief, at least in the political debate. The feared worsening of the labour market that emerged after the number of unemployed reached the symbolic three-million mark in August has so far been avoided. That said, since reaching a low of 2.2 million in May 2022, the number of unemployed has steadily increased. It's not up by some half a million compared with then.

This trajectory reflects textbook economics: with the economy effectively stagnating for over five years and industry facing severe structural challenges, a worsening of the labour market was just a matter of time.

Improvements, yes, but far from a turning point

Looking ahead, recruitment plans in both manufacturing and services have continued to weaken, and the number of vacancies is down to levels last seen during the pandemic. Still, other indicators like social media vacancies and hiring indicators at least point to some bottoming out. At the same time, ongoing announcements of potential cost-cutting measures across the automotive and other industries, along with the continuing increase in some bankruptcies, suggest that things could get worse before they get better.

With the worsening labour market, political uncertainty about the future of Germany's pension system, and a broader sense of sombreness in the economy, it is no surprise that private consumption has worsened again. After a brief indulgence at the turn of last year, German consumers have again closed their wallets. This morning's news that retail sales dropped by 0.3% month-on-month in October just strengthens this point. Even more so, as real wages were still up by almost 3% on the year in the third quarter, and the savings rate has almost come down to pre-pandemic levels - a statistical conundrum.

Overall, despite today's favourable news from the labour market, a turning point is clearly not in sight. Instead, the very gradual worsening of the German labour market is likely to continue, clearly complicating any comeback of private consumption.

Source: ING

Orban has kept friendly ties with Putin despite the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine [File photo: July 2024]

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said he will travel to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Orban, a right-wing populist and close ally of US President Donald Trump, has frequently blocked efforts to impose more sanctions on Russia, as the Russian military continues its yearslong invasion of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll is expected in Kyiv this week, as the Trump administration pushes for an end to the war in Ukraine.

Here's a look at the latest in Russia's war on Ukraine for Thursday, November 28:

Orban to meet Putin in Moscow

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is heading to Moscow for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on crude oil and gas supplies for Hungary. Orban said he also intended to address peace efforts in Ukraine.

Orban remains Putin's closest ally in the 27-member European Union despite the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly four years ago. Hungary is reliant on Russian energy. Despite EU efforts to cut dependence, nearly 19% of the bloc's gas imports came from Russia in 2025.

"Energy security and affordable, low energy prices in the winter in Hungary," he wrote in a Facebook post. "That's why we went to Washington, and that's why I'm going to Moscow now."

Asked if peace efforts in Ukraine would also come up, Orban said, "We can hardly avoid that."

Orban has previously said he wants to revive plans for a"peace summit" in Budapest between US President Donald Trump and Putin on Ukraine, which was shelved this year as fighting continued.

In contrast to most NATO and European Union leaders, Orban has kept up cordial relations with Russia while questioning the logic of Western military aid for Kyiv.

Hungary has imported 8.5 million tons of crude oil and more than 7 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia this year, its Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Friday.

Source: DW

In focus today

In the euro area, the inflation flash estimates are released for Germany, France, Italy, and Spain which together will reveal almost entirely how inflation in the euro area fared ahead of the aggregate data next week. We expect headline inflation remained at 2.1% y/y in November and core inflation remained at 2.4% y/y as in October.

In Sweden, the Q3 GDP statistics are announced. Preliminary estimates indicate growth of 1.1% q/q (2.4% y/y) and although the GDP indicator is highly unreliable and prone to revisions, broader activity data supports the notion of a tentative recovery. Private consumption increased in September and appeared to be the main driver of Q3 growth, which we expect to print at 0.9% and 1.7% y/y.

In Norway, we expect the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate to be unchanged at 2.2% in November, but the number of unemployed to increase, signalling a gradually weaker labour market. We also keep an eye on new vacancies, as they can act as an indicator of labour demand. We expect retail sales grew 0.5% m/m in October after a couple of weak months. High real wage growth, lower mortgage rates and still low unemployment should support private consumption going forward, and we see some upside risk to our estimate.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In Japan, Tokyo November CPI released at 2.8% y/y (cons: 2.7%) and CPI excl. fresh food and fuel remained at 2.8%. October retail sales surpassed expectations at 1.7% y/y (cons: 0.8%) and marked the strongest uptick in four months. The largest increase in sales was seen in machinery and equipment (8%), pharmaceuticals and cosmetics (5.1%) and automobiles (4.8%). Additionally, the unemployment rate held steady at 2.6% in October and it appears the economy is weathering the impact of higher US tariffs. Markets are now pricing in slightly more than a 50% chance of an interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan at the December meeting.

What happened yesterday

In the euro area, the ECB minutes from the October meeting did not reveal much new information and the wording was very balanced. The ECB GC members are clearly in no rush to change policy rates and continue to see "a high option value in waiting for additional data." Most members saw inflation risks as two-sided and balanced.

On the data side, credit growth for October released above expectations with adjusted loans to non-financial corporations increasing by 2.9% y/y. Loan growth to households increased to 2.8% y/y from 2.6% in September. The readings were above expectations of a slowing momentum which we expected would result in a smaller reading.

In Denmark, retail sales for October surprised to the upside, with a reading of 0.9% m/m and 4.9% y/y in October, marking the highest monthly gain since February 2024. The main driver can be found in other consumer goods, which increased by 8.6%, up from 7.6% in September, and food and other groceries which were up 0.9% vs -2.0% in September.

In Sweden, the NIER survey showed overall sentiment improving to 101.7 in November from 100.9 in October. Consumer confidence disappointed and declined following six months of positive gains. The decline appears to be driven by a slightly more negative view of the domestic economy.

The Swedish National Debt Office (NDO) presented an updated forecast and borrowing plan. The borrowing requirement for 2026 was revised up by SEK 89bn, bringing the total deficit- or net borrowing requirement to SEK 173bn. The NDO stated that the increase "is mainly due to expansionary fiscal policy".

Equities: Thursday was a quiet day in markets, as US was closed for Thanksgiving. European equities edged slightly higher, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.1% and the MSCI Nordics up 0.4%. As Nordics have lagged in the recent rebound, it would make sense if Nordics outperformed on the coming trading days. Beneath the surface, the tone was risk-on, with global cyclicals and small caps outperforming. It is unclear if this continues today, as futures markets are closed this morning due to technical issues. However, Asian markets are little changed, which gives a hint of another slow trading day today. US markets will reopen today, but only for a half-day session.

FI and FX: Small to no moves in the rates and equity space as US is closed for Thanksgiving. US10y flat at 4%, equity futures in green. Scandi FX traded modestly higher yesterday. EUR/SEK is just below 11.00 ahead of month-end, which we estimate could generate a small need to sell SEK for rebalancing purposes. Focus on today's Swedish GDP data, a well. EUR/NOK trades around 11.88 going into the Norwegian data releases this morning.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

USD: Staying on tight ranges

Dollar crosses have traded in tight ranges as the Thanksgiving holiday dried up flows. Volatility shouldn't pick up materially today, even though the dollar remains vulnerable to a convergence lower towards short-term swap rates.

Our short-term fair value model continues to display some short-term dollar overvaluation against most of the G10, and risks remain skewed towards a return to the 99.0 50-day moving average in DXY.

Geopolitical news remains closely monitored, even though the impact on FX has been contained so far. President Putin said yesterday that the draft discussed in Geneva could form the basis of a future deal with Ukraine, and US peace envoy Steve Witkoff is confirmed to visit Moscow next week. We could see some build-up in expectations of a breakthrough in negotiations ahead of that Witkoff trip.

While there is considerable caution in markets about the prospects of a peace deal, any material progress from here should weigh on the dollar and support high-beta European currencies.

EUR: Inflation numbers shouldn't be a game changers

France, Spain, Italy and Germany publish their flash CPI estimates for November today. We doubt the inflation picture is set to change dramatically in the near term, and our call on the ECB remains unchanged and in line with pricing: no changes for the whole of 2026.

However, yesterday's ECB minutes confirmed that any shift would – if anything – be on the dovish side. Evidence of persistent inflation undershooting in the forecasting horizon could prompt a more vocal reaction by the ECB doves, and put another cut back on the table.

Our call remains bullish on EUR/USD into year-end, but until some US data is published, or the Fed delivers a cut in December, it's mostly up to positive developments on the Ukraine peace deal that can drive the euro sustainably higher.

CEE: Market watches Hungary's rating reviews after fiscal target revision

In Hungary, PPI figures will be published, which will show month-on-month declines this year, dragging down the year-on-year figures. More interesting will be the rating review after the end of trading today. Moody's has a negative outlook on Hungary's rating (Baa2) from November 2024. Moody's expects a 4.6% GDP deficit for this year and 5.1% for next year. Therefore, the government's recent revision to 5% in both cases does not change the picture much, and a downgrade is less likely, but the market will certainly watch this move. More interesting may be Fitch's rating review next week on Friday, where the outlook is still "Stable" and the agency forecasts a 4.5% and 4.0% deficit.

In the Czech Republic, detailed GDP figures for the third quarter will be published today. The earlier flash estimate, at 0.7% quarterly and 2.7% annually, surprised both the market and the CNB to the upside. The Statistical Office should confirm these figures and show household consumption and investment as the main drivers of growth. However, there is some risk of a downward revision in our opinion due to the weaker monthly figures.

PLN: The market is waiting for a signal that is pricing in too many rate cuts

November inflation should show a further decline in headline inflation from 2.8% to 2.5% in our forecast, one-tenth below market expectations. Core inflation should also fall slightly from 3.0% to 2.9% YoY. This should pave the way for another rate cut by the National Bank of Poland next week. However, we believe that the market in the current conditions may be more sensitive to potential surprises than usual. The last two weeks have seen the market move rates down, outperforming CEE peers, triggering some stop-losses due to paid positioning in the PLN market. The market has thus quickly moved to price in a terminal rate of 3.50%, which is in line with our forecast but above market consensus.

If the inflation print surprises upwards, we could see new payers in rates as the view is that more rate cuts cannot be priced in and potentially higher inflation in the future. On the other hand, weaker inflation would simply confirm the current dovish trend. The market is therefore asymmetric, in our opinion, towards higher rates and potentially support for FX. Therefore, PLN has a good chance of further gains, especially if we see some progress in peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. The 4.230 levels are the bottom of the current range, but we have already seen testing lower levels in previous days and especially an upside surprise in inflation would be key to breaking lower.

Source: ING