Bitcoin’s $95K Target in Sight as ‘Ugly’ Price Candle Halts Breakout Momentum

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin Wyckoff analysis paints a grim picture for bulls as a “distribution phase” implies that $100,000 support may not be safe.

Key points:

Bitcoin price momentum weakness is leading to lower targets, with Wyckoff analysis warning that $100,000 support may fail.

The push to $122,000 currently looks “ugly” thanks to a rejection on daily time frames.

Attention continues to focus on the CME gap near $117,500.

Bitcoin risks breaking its bull run early as a sub-$100,000 BTC price target emerges.

The latest market analysis from traders, including ZAYK Charts, published on Tuesday, warns of an ongoing “distribution phase” for Bitcoin.

BTC price Wyckoff schematic eyes “$95,000 zone”

Bitcoin is not immune to losing $100,000 support, with the price struggling to hold ground above old all-time highs from earlier in 2025.

ZAYK Charts said that the door is open to $95,000, a level not seen since early May.

Using the Wyckoff method, ZAYK Charts argued that BTC/USDT has already enjoyed the classic “mark up” rebound phase from long-term lows, and has now entered “distribution,” the area where an uptrend traditionally reverses.

“After a strong Accumulation Phase in March–April confirmed by bullish RSI divergence, BTC entered a powerful Mark-Up phase, reaching new highs,” an X post said.

“Currently, price action is showing signs of a Distribution Phase — sideways movement with weakening momentum, supported by bearish RSI divergence. If distribution confirms, the next phase could be a Mark-Down, with a potential drop toward the 95K zone.” Bitcoin’s $95K Target in Sight as ‘Ugly’ Price Candle Halts Breakout Momentum_1

Bitcoin’s $95K Target in Sight as ‘Ugly’ Price Candle Halts Breakout Momentum_1

BTC/USDT with Wyckoff analysis. Source: ZAYK Charts/X

The area between $92,000 and $95,000 has featured prominently in BTC price action since last November, acting as both support and resistance as the market experienced significant swings.

Continuing, fellow trader Mikybull Crypto described this week’s push beyond $122,000, which ended in rejection, as “ugly.”

BTC/USD, he told X followers, had reentered its previous range, with the main beneficiaries being altcoins. Bitcoin’s $95K Target in Sight as ‘Ugly’ Price Candle Halts Breakout Momentum_2

Bitcoin’s $95K Target in Sight as ‘Ugly’ Price Candle Halts Breakout Momentum_2

CME gap looms ahead of US CPI report

Other market takes were less categorical, with trader Daan Crypto Trades among those focusing on the nearby gap in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures.

“$BTC Retesting the trend line it broke out of before. The 4H 200MA/EMA are coming in right below,” he wrote on X Tuesday, referring to the 200-period simple and exponential moving averages on four-hour time frames.

“But keep in mind that we do still have the CME gap which sits at around $117K. This would have some decent confluence with the 4H 200MA (Purple) and a wick into that region would make me look more closely for fresh longs on strong alts.” Bitcoin’s $95K Target in Sight as ‘Ugly’ Price Candle Halts Breakout Momentum_3

Bitcoin’s $95K Target in Sight as ‘Ugly’ Price Candle Halts Breakout Momentum_3

BTC/USDT perpetual swaps four-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Expectations for volatility were already high ahead of key US macroeconomic data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for July due on the day.

As Cointelegraph reported, market participants see any outlying result as having an immediate impact on crypto and risk assets.

Source: Cointelegraph

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Adam

Commodity

WTI Inches Higher but Still Boxed In by Key Levels

Daily Light Crude Oil Futures

Light crude oil futures are nudging higher this morning, but let’s be honest — we’re still in the same holding pattern we’ve been in for days. Prices are camped just above last week’s $62.77 low and that June 24 bottom at $62.69, while straddling the 200-day moving average at $64.08. That line has been calling the shots for the longer-term trend, and I think most traders are watching it closely.

At 10:48 GMT, Light Crude Oil futures are trading $64.01, up $0.05 or +0.08%.

On the topside, there’s a bit of a gauntlet to run — the long-term 50% retracement at $65.38 and the 50-day moving average at $65.60. And if we’re talking short-term charts, the $66.64 pivot from the $70.51–$62.77 range is the real swing point. Take that out with conviction, and it doesn’t take much imagination to see this market pop a couple of bucks in a hurry.

Tariff Truce Gives Oil a Breather

Part of the calm here comes from the U.S.–China tariff extension. President Trump’s decision to push the pause button until November 10 took some weight off the market’s shoulders. Triple-digit duties on Chinese goods would have been a body blow to global growth and, by extension, fuel demand. Now traders have a little breathing room — though whether this is a path to an actual agreement or just kicking the can down the road remains to be seen.

Rate Cut Bets Add Support

The other quiet boost comes from softer U.S. labor data, which has traders leaning harder toward a September Federal Reserve rate cut. That kind of move tends to pull the dollar lower, lift equities, and, more often than not, perk up oil demand. We’ve also got U.S. inflation data due later today — if it comes in cooler, the rate-cut crowd gets even louder. That being said, I don’t think crude is going to break out on this alone unless the chart levels start to give way.

Geopolitics Could Flip the Script Fast

Traders can’t ignore Friday’s planned Alaska sit-down between Trump and Putin. The Ukraine war headline risk is still huge — a peace push could ease sanctions pressure, while a breakdown might mean tougher penalties on Russian oil buyers like China and India. Commerzbank’s already warning that if Friday doesn’t bring progress, secondary sanctions could expand. That’s the sort of thing that can spike or sink prices overnight, no matter what the charts are saying.

Outlook: More Likely Than Not, We Stay Range-Bound — For Now

More likely than not, we keep grinding sideways between $62.70 and $66.60 until one of these geopolitical or economic triggers hits. Buyers seem comfortable defending dips toward $63, but the market hasn’t shown it’s got the strength to break $66.64 yet. I’d still look at pullbacks as potential buying opportunities — but we’ll see how that plays out if Friday’s meeting throws a curveball.

Source: fxempire

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Adam

Forex

Fundamental Overview

The USD has been weak almost across the board since the NFP report as the softer than expected data triggered a quick dovish repricing and a change in stance for many Fed members.

The market is pricing 57 bps of easing by year-end compared to just 35 bps before the NFP release. It’s highly likely that more benign data will see Fed Chair Powell opening the door for a cut in September at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

The focus now turned to the US CPI report. We saw some dollar strength yesterday which could have been hedging activity into the risk event. The recent Fedspeak suggests that a rate cut in September might be unavoidable, so we might need very hot inflation data to change their mind (and of course a good NFP report in September).

On the CHF side, we haven’t got anything new in terms of monetary policy as the SNB is now in a long pause. The latest Swiss CPI showed a slight improvement in inflation although it’s not important as the central bank will not hike rates for a long time. The market doesn’t expect the SNB to cut anymore.

There’s some focus at the moment on the 39% tariffs that the US slapped on Switzerland. That is likely to be resolved in the near future with the rate being set between 10-20% as we’ve seen for most other countries.

USDCHF Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

USDCHF Daily

On the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF is trading above the key support zone around the 0.8050 level and the major trendline. The buyers will likely continue to step in around the support with a defined risk below it to keep targeting the 0.84 handle next. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into new cycle lows.

USDCHF Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

USDCHF 4 hour

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish structure on this timeframe. The trendline is near the support zone, so that area is going to be key for traders. Buyers will look for a bounce, while the sellers will look for a break.

USDCHF Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

USDCHF 1 hour

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor support zone around the 0.8090 level. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the zone to position for a rally into the 0.84 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to extend the pullback into the trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

It’s worth noting that we have the US CPI report today so the technicals might not mean much and it would be better to trade after the release.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the US PPI and the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. Focus also on Fedspeak, especially after the US CPI data.

Source: investinglive

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Daniel Carter

Central Bank

Economic

The U.S. central bank should not take tariffs' muted effect on inflation so far as an opportunity to cut interest rates, but rather as a sign that monetary policy is "appropriately calibrated," Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Schmid said on Tuesday, in remarks that contrast with the increasingly dovish tone of some of his colleagues.

"With the economy still showing momentum, growing business optimism, and inflation still stuck above our objective, retaining a modestly restrictive monetary policy stance remains appropriate for the time being," Schmid said in remarks prepared for delivery to an economic development conference in Oklahoma. "While increased tariffs seem to be having a limited effect on inflation, I view this as a rationale for keeping policy on hold rather than an opportunity to ease the stance of policy."

Schmid said his "patient approach" to changing the policy rate, currently in the 4.25%-4.50% range, shouldn't be seen as a "wait and see" approach because he does not think that it will be clear in the next few months whether tariffs are pushing up on prices temporarily or persistently.

Rather, he said, he feels the current policy rate is not very far above the neutral rate, where activity is neither stimulated nor restrained, and the labor market is still looking solid despite a sharp drop in job growth in recent months.

And while the cooling labor market is keeping a lid on the pass-through of tariffs into inflation, boosting demand aggressively could raise the risk of an outsized increase in price pressures, Schmid said.

"In my view, and in discussion with my contacts, growth remains solid, inflation remains too high, and therefore policy should remain modestly restrictive," he said. "That said, as I stated earlier, inflation is determined by the balance of supply and demand, and if I see indications that demand growth is weakening significantly, I will adjust my views accordingly."

Source: Kitco

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Damon

Central Bank

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeff Schmid said he favors keeping interest rates on hold for the time being to prevent robust economic activity from adding to inflation pressures.

“With the economy still showing momentum, growing business optimism, and inflation still stuck above our objective, retaining a modestly restrictive monetary policy stance remains appropriate for the time being,” Schmid said Tuesday in remarks prepared for an event in Oklahoma City.

He added that he’s ready to change his views if demand growth starts “weakening significantly.”

Fed officials have left interest rates on hold at each of their five meetings this year as they waited to see how tariffs and other policies would impact the economy. With the latest data showing a sharp slowdown in hiring and relatively muted inflation, investors are pricing in a quarter-point rate cut at the next policy meeting in September.

Schmid, who votes on monetary policy decisions this year, said the current environment of moderate demand growth and a cooling labor market is helping temper the pass—through of tariffs to inflation, and that the Fed has a key role to play in that.

“The Fed cannot offset the effect of higher tariffs on prices, but what the Fed can do is monitor demand growth, provide space for the economy to adjust and keep inflation on a path to 2%,” Schmid said. “Overall, I am anticipating a relatively muted effect of tariffs on inflation, but I view that as a sign that policy is appropriately calibrated rather than a sign that the policy rate should be cut.”

A report released earlier Tuesday showed the consumer price index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% in July from a month earlier. While that marked an acceleration, the data suggested the impact of tariffs on goods prices was more modest than in June.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Winkelmann

Economic

Political

Amid a blizzard of contradictory signals, it's becoming increasingly difficult to get any visibility on the U.S. labor market. But of all the numbers that feed into the all-important unemployment rate, the one worth paying most attention to may be continuing weekly jobless claims.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has said that while he and his colleagues look at the "totality" of the data, the best gauge of the health of the labor market is the unemployment rate. That's currently 4.2%, low by historical standards, and consistent with an economy operating at full employment.

But it is a lagging indicator, meaning that once it starts to rise sharply, the economy will probably already be in a very precarious position. And it is also being depressed by labor demand and supply factors unique to the U.S.'s current high tariff, low immigration era.

LOW FIRE, LOW HIRE

Economic growth is slowing. Broadly speaking, it is running at an annual rate of just over 1%, half the pace seen in the last few years. Unsurprisingly, firms' hiring is slowing too.The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, showed hiring in June was the weakest in a year, while July's nonfarm payrolls report and previous months' revisions were so disappointing that President Donald Trump fired the head of the agency responsible for collecting the data.

But the unemployment rate isn't rising, largely because firms aren't firing workers. Why? Perhaps because they are banking on tariff and inflation uncertainty lifting in the second half of the year. It's also possible that firms are still scared form the post-pandemic labor shortages.Whatever the reason, the pace of layoffs simply has not picked up, the monthly JOLTS surveys show. Layoffs in June totaled 1.6 million, below the averages of the last one, two and three years.Meanwhile, lower immigration, increased deportations, and fewer people re-entering the labor force are offsetting weak hiring, thus keeping a lid on the unemployment rate. The labor force participation rate in July was 62.2%, the lowest since November 2022.

And what about weekly jobless claims, another key variable in the labor market picture? In previous slowdowns, rising layoffs would be reflected in a spike in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time.That's not happening either. Last week's 226,000 initial claims were right at the average for the past year, and only a few thousand higher than the averages over the past two and three years."It's a low fire, low hire economy," notes Oscar Munoz, U.S. rates strategist at TD Securities.

U.S. continuing claims highest since Nov 2021

REGULAR CHECK-UP

One high-frequency number that has gone under the radar, but which merits more attention is continuing jobless claims, which measures the number of workers continuing to file for unemployment benefits after losing their jobs. Rising continued claims suggest people actively looking for a job are struggling to get one, a sign that the labor market could be softening.

That figure spiked last week to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021, which in theory should put upward pressure on the unemployment rate.Using the 'stock' versus 'flow' analogy, continuing claims are the 'stock,' and weekly claims are the 'flow'. Everyone will have their own view on what's more important, but right now initial claims are offering no guidance while continuing claims are pointing to softening in the job market.

Fed officials are on alert, but what would move them to cut rates?

Munoz and his colleagues at TD Securities estimate that continuing claims of around 2.2 million would be consistent with an unemployment rate of 4.5%, a level of joblessness most economists agree would prompt the Fed to trim rates.That's also the year-end unemployment rate in the Fed's last economic projections from June, a set of forecasts which also penciled in 50 bps of easing by December.An unemployment rate of 4.4% would probably tip the balance on the Federal Open Market Committee, while 4.3% would make it a much closer call, perhaps a coin toss.

Further muddying the picture, other indicators suggest the labor market is ticking along nicely. July's payrolls report showed that average hourly earnings last month rose at a 3.9% annual rate, consistent with the level seen in the past year. And the average number of hours worked was 34.3 hours, right at the mean for the past two years.These numbers and the JOLTS data are released monthly, and there will be one more of each before the Fed's September 16-17 policy meeting.But if the increased focus on the unemployment rate means investors want a more regular labor market temperature check, they should keep a close eye on weekly continuing claims.

Source: TradingView

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Economic

The Australian dollar is lower on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6494, down 0.29% on the day.

RBA cuts rates to 3.60%

The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered the cash rate by a quarter-point on Tuesday in a unanimous decision, bringing the cash rate to 3.60%. This is the lowest level since April 2023 and today's cut was the third this year.

This time around the RBA didn't shock the markets, unlike the July meeting when the RBA held rates and said it needed to see additional inflation data before lowering rates.

The rate statement began by noting that inflation has "fallen substantially" since 2022 and that inflation had fallen back within the target band of 2%-3% in the second quarter.

The Board noted that headline inflation was at 2.1% and trimmed mean (a key core CPI gauge) was at 2.7%. The Board said that underlying inflation is expected to continue to ease to the midpoint of the target band and the cash rate should continue to follow a "gradual easing path".

This dovish tune in the statement was balanced out by concerns that uncertainty remains in both the global economy and at home. The Board said it would remain cautious and would remain focused on price stabililty and employment.

At a post-meeting press conference, Governor Bullock said that the growth and inflation forecasts support further rate cuts but "there is still a lot of uncertainty" and future rate decisions would be data-dependent.

US inflation expected to rise to 2.8%

The US releases the July inflation report later today. Inflation is expected to nudge higher to 2.8% y/y, up from 2.7% y/y in June. This would mark a third straight acceleration and the highest inflation level since February. Core CPI is also expected to accelerate to 3.0%, up from 2.9%

Monthly, CPI is projected to ease to 0.2% from 0.3%. Core CPI is projected to rise to 0.3% from 0.2%.

Today's inflation data could shift market expectations for the September Fed meeting but the decision will very likely be rate cut, with a current likelihood of 84%, according to FedWatch's CME.