Bitcoin Risks Further Slide as Momentum Weakens Below Key Support

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin stabilized near $75,000 but weakening momentum below key support keeps downside risks elevated, with analysts warning further liquidations unless prices reclaim resistance amid macro and geopolitical uncertainty.

Bitcoin has stabilized after a sharp selloff, but weakening momentum below key support levels has left it and the broader crypto market vulnerable to further downside, experts warn.

The stable level finds Bitcoin “above $74,500,” but price action “remains fragile,” with momentum that “continues to point lower,” analysts at crypto trading firm QCP Capital noted this week.

The desk added that “upside remains constrained near recent resistance levels,” leaving broader markets “exposed to further liquidation-driven moves.”

QCP said the next few sessions will be key, warning that a sustained drop below $74,000 could open the door to a deeper slide across crypto, while a move back above $80,000 may offer short-term relief.

It also said traders are watching for signs of institutional buying near $76,000, along with easing geopolitical tensions and more dovish signals from the Federal Reserve.

Bitcoin has pared back losses seen during the U.S. trading session when it dipped to as low as $73,100. It remains down 1.7% on the day to $76,400, according to CoinGecko data.

Outside of crypto, the same caution flagged by QCP is being echoed.

Michael Burry, best known for his role in The Big Short, flagged tightening liquidity conditions and renewed fragility across risk assets, warning that recent moves reflect structural pressure.

"Sickening scenarios have now come within reach," Burry said as cited by Business Insider, outlining three other consequences in particular he believed were possible if bitcoin continued its free-fall.

Burry noted a slide below $70,000 for Bitcoin could force heavy losses across those institutions holding the crypto, tighten capital access for Strategy, and prompt more aggressive risk management, while deeper moves approaching $60,000 could trigger a crisis for Michael Saylor’s firm.

A drop toward $50,000 could push Bitcoin miners into bankruptcy, unleash forced selling of reserves, and spill over into severe dislocations in tokenized and physical metals markets, the analyst said.

"Tokenized metals futures would collapse into a black hole with no buyer. Physical metals may break from the trend on safe haven demand," Burry warned.

Converging factors

QCP’s outlook “aligns with what we’re seeing in market structure,” Trantor, who leads Linea-based decentralized exchange Etherex, told Decrypt.

“Centralized exchanges (CEX) remain dominant holders, while leveraged traders continue to amplify short-term volatility as they push prices in both directions.”

Until such time leverage becomes “meaningfully flushed from the system and spot buyers regain control,” Bitcoin would likely “remain stuck in a regime of chop, uncertainty, and persistent downside anxiety,” he explained.

Still, in the near term, easing “liquidity conditions, cheaper money, and a more certain global environment” is “capable of changing sentiment decisively,” he added.

“Consensus trades have a habit of persisting far longer than expected until they don’t. When positioning, sentiment, and narrative become too one-sided, the conditions for reversal quietly begin to form,” Trantor said.

Macro risk is believed to “remain the predominant factor” at this point, Siwon Huh, researcher at crypto analytics firm Four Pillars, told Decrypt.

“With respect to macro risk, the uncertainty following Kevin Warsh's nomination has emerged as a key driver. Until his stance on interest rates and quantitative easing is clearly articulated, volatility stemming from this ambiguity is unlikely to subside,” Huh said.

There’s also a range of “destabilizing factors,” he said, pointing to “the risk of military conflict with Iran, a sharp decline in precious metals, and elevated risk in AI-related equities.”

These factors “collectively suggest that conditions are not yet conducive to a rotation of liquidity into Bitcoin,” he noted.

Source: decrypt

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Oliver Scott

Economic

Remarks of Officials

Central Bank

Data Interpretation

The U.S. services sector remained stable in January, but a significant jump in business costs is signaling renewed inflationary pressure, potentially reversing a recent cooling trend.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its non-manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 53.8 last month. This figure, which indicates expansion, beat economists' forecasts of 53.5 and suggests the economy started the first quarter on steady footing. The services sector is a critical barometer, accounting for over two-thirds of all U.S. economic activity.

Rising Costs Point to Inflationary Risk

While the headline number was stable, a closer look reveals mounting cost pressures. The ISM survey's measure of prices paid by businesses climbed to 66.6 in January from 65.1 in December.

This increase coincided with signs of supply chain strain. The supplier deliveries index rose to 54.2, its highest level since October 2024. A reading above 50 signifies slower delivery times, which may have been worsened by frigid temperatures and heavy snow across the country.

This development presents a challenge to the view that inflation is firmly under control. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently described the impact of import tariffs as a likely "one-time price increase." The central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range last week.

New Orders Weaken as Exports Plunge

Growth in new business moderated, with the new orders gauge falling to 53.1 from 56.5. A sharp contraction in foreign demand was a primary driver of this slowdown. The measure for export orders collapsed to 45.0, its lowest reading since March 2023, down from 54.2 in the prior month.

This slump in exports may be linked to geopolitical friction. Respondents in the ISM's January manufacturing survey noted that U.S. tensions are fueling "anti-American" sentiment among buyers. President Donald Trump has implemented broad tariffs and last month announced temporary American control over Venezuela after capturing President Nicolas Maduro. He also threatened new tariffs against European allies over the sale of Greenland before retracting the statement.

Hiring in the Services Sector Slows

The employment picture in the services sector also softened. The ISM's employment index slipped to 50.3 from 51.7 in December, indicating a much slower pace of hiring.

A more comprehensive view of the labor market remains pending, as the Department of Labor's official employment report for January has been delayed following the partial government shutdown that ended on Tuesday.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Forex

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

USD:

The US Dollar continues to rebound after the strong selloff experienced in the last couple of weeks of January. The greenback remains supported by improving US data with the recent US ISM Manufacturing PMI potentially hinting to stronger economic activity going forward. If the data continues to come out strong, traders will have to pare back their dovish Fed bets, and that’s going to boost the US Dollar.

Today, we have the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI on the agenda. Surprisingly strong data will likely trigger a hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations and support the greenback. Soft data, on the other hand, could weigh on the greenback in the short-term but it’s unlikely to change much in terms of market pricing.

The main event will be the US NFP report which got delayed due to the partial US government shutdown. We might get the data next week, which is also when we will get the US CPI report. The trend for the dollar is looking increasingly bullish, but traders will still look for confirmation from the data to gain more conviction.

GBP:

On the GBP side, the latest UK Flash PMIs beat expectations by a big margin and triggered a slightly hawkish repricing which gave the pound a boost. The employment and inflation reports, on the other hand, came out basically in line with expectations.

The BoE is expected to hold the Bank Rate steady tomorrow with a 6-3 vote split in favour of no change. There shouldn’t be material changes to the forward guidance as the central bank maintains a data-dependent approach. The focus will be mainly on the updated monetary policy report where a lower revision for inflation or the neutral interest rate could be taken as dovish signals.

GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

GBPUSD - daily

On the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD probed above the cycle high around the 1.3790 level but eventually fell back below it. The sellers piled in on the false breakout and are now targeting the major trendline around the 1.3500 handle. If the price gets there, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into a new cycle high.

GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

GBPUSD - 4 hour

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor counter-trendline defining the current pullback. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the major trendline.

GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

GBPUSD - 1 hour

On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the buyers will look for a bounce around the trendline, while the sellers will look for a break lower. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Source: investinglive

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Ukadike Micheal

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Daily News

Remarks of Officials

Political

Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, facilitated by the United States, have started in the United Arab Emirates, even as Russian forces launched another wave of strikes across Ukraine.

Direct negotiations involving Ukrainian, Russian, and U.S. representatives resumed in Abu Dhabi on January 23-24. These meetings are a rare occurrence since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.

US-Brokered Negotiations Kick Off in the UAE

Ukraine's lead negotiator, Rustem Umerov, confirmed the commencement of the talks on X, stating that the meeting began in a trilateral format.

"Next comes work in separate groups by specific tracks, after which a follow-up joint synchronization of positions is planned," he explained.

According to media reports citing a White House official, Steve Witkoff, special envoy for US President Donald Trump, is representing the United States in the negotiations.

Skepticism Mounts as Kremlin Holds Firm

Hopes for a significant breakthrough are low as the war nears its fourth anniversary. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on February 4 that Russia's stance remains unchanged. He stated that Moscow's position is "absolutely clear and well understood by both Kyiv and the American negotiators."

This diplomatic effort is shadowed by what Ukrainian officials call a familiar Kremlin tactic: using talks to buy time while escalating military assaults in Europe's deadliest conflict since World War II.

Ukrainian political analyst Ihor Reiterovych warned that the United States might be underestimating Russia's territorial ambitions. Speaking to Current Time, he said there is "absolutely no guarantee" that Putin would stop after securing parts of Ukraine.

Reiterovych also stressed the need for stronger security guarantees for Ukraine, insisting they must be "written not like the Budapest Memorandum." He referred to the 1994 agreement where the U.S., Russia, and the U.K. guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for the country giving up its nuclear arsenal.

Diplomacy Under Fire: Widespread Attacks Continue

The negotiations began just hours after Russia launched a massive barrage of missiles and drones, hitting the Ukrainian capital and other regions across the country.

The Ukrainian Air Forces reported on February 4 that Russian forces had launched over 100 drones at Ukraine overnight.

Regional authorities reported the following impacts from the attacks:

• Dnipropetrovsk Region: A drone attack resulted in two deaths—a 68-year-old woman and a 38-year-old man—and left two others wounded, according to Mykola Lukashuk, head of the regional administration.

• Odesa Region: An overnight Russian attack injured at least five people. Local authorities also reported damage to houses, kindergartens, and a school.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

James Riley

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Remarks of Officials

Political

Energy

President Trump stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin honored a temporary ceasefire agreement, a deal that came to a close just as a major new wave of air strikes hit Ukraine.

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Trump confirmed that a one-week pause in attacks, which he personally requested from Putin, had expired on Sunday. "It was Sunday to Sunday, and it opened up and he hit them hard last night," Trump said. "He kept his word on that… we'll take anything, because it's really, really cold over there."

The agreement was first announced by Trump on Thursday, January 29. He explained that he had asked Putin to refrain from firing on Kyiv and other cities for a week due to the extreme cold weather, a request to which the Russian president reportedly agreed.

Russia Unleashes Largest Air Attack of 2026

Despite the brief pause, Russia launched what Ukraine's largest private energy company, DTEK, has called the biggest air attack since the beginning of 2026. The overnight assault on Tuesday targeted power generation and distribution facilities, leaving thousands of people without electricity.

A residential building in Kyiv sustains heavy damage following a Russian air strike on February 3, 2026.

The attack involved over 70 missiles and several hundred drones, which damaged power and thermal plants already undergoing slow and costly repairs.

This escalation coincides with a new round of trilateral peace talks. American, Ukrainian, and Russian representatives gathered in the United Arab Emirates on Wednesday for discussions expected to continue until Thursday in Abu Dhabi.

Ukraine Contests Timeline and Demands Sanctions

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy challenged the timeline of the truce, stating it only began last Friday, a day after Trump's public announcement, and therefore did not last a full week.

In a statement Tuesday night, Zelenskyy directly addressed the renewed attacks. "We await the reaction of America to the Russian strikes," he said. "It was the U.S. proposal to halt strikes on energy during diplomacy and severe winter weather. The president of the United States made the request personally. Russia responded with a record number of ballistic missiles."

Zelenskyy urged international partners to impose further consequences on Russia:

• U.S. Action: He called for progress on a new sanctions bill currently being worked on by the U.S. Congress.

• European Measures: He pushed for European partners to take "decisive steps" regarding the earnings Russia generates from its oil tankers.

"Russia must feel pressure so that it moves in negotiations toward peace," he added.

Humanitarian Crisis in Freezing Temperatures

The latest assault has intensified the humanitarian crisis, with Ukrainian officials describing it as a "winter genocide." The strikes occurred as temperatures in the capital dropped to -20°C (-4°F).

In the aftermath of the attack, more than 1,000 residential tower blocks in Kyiv were left without heating, marking a severe end to the short-lived truce negotiated by Trump and Putin.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Economic

European stocks are mixed on Wednesday. The FTSE 100 is rising, and the Eurostoxx 50 index is down a touch, gold and silver are higher for a second day, as European markets mostly shrug off a steep decline in US tech stocks on Tuesday. The sell off was spurred by news that Anthropic was releasing an AI tool so powerful that it threatens the business models of many global software providers.

Traditional software providers such as Salesforce, Microsoft, Oracle and SAP are the big losers in the AI race so far this year. SAP is down by a fifth since the start of this year, and Salesforce has fallen by 25%. Asian software providers such as Infosys and Tata are also following their US peers lower today, and Infosys stocks are lower by 7% so far today. Traditional software firms provide global corporates with programmes and data that tells computer hardware what to do and how to do it. Typically, these software programmes are expensive and cumbersome, requiring many resources to keep them updated and working effectively.

AI changing how corporates use tech

This has been the case for decades, and software companies have been the centre of the tech industry. However, AI is changing that. Anthropic, a private AI research company, released its Claude Cowork legal plugin this week, and the stock market shivered, with tech stocks particularly exposed. AI plugins are now the biggest threat to the software business model. They are cheaper and easier for companies to use, they require simple commands that anyone can input, and their output rivals any software provider.

Can AI bring down inflation?

Thus, we are entering the era where AI could upend the traditional tech ecosystem. This was not the case in recent years, where software providers could rally alongside AI developments, this is now not the case. We are in an era where AI can automate tasks in legal, sales, marketing and data analysis. This has big implications for the stock market and the overall economy. AI is now targeting professional services. This will mean reduced demand for consulting, reduced headcount and more focus on higher level AI oversight. There will be a major boost to productivity in countries that adopt these tools fastest, and potentially a rise in job losses.

The impact on the stock market is already being felt, but there are other consequences. For example, if there are major productivity gains, then this could push inflation down, by reducing the cost of producing goods and services, which will impact central bank policy. If increased productivity weighs on wage growth in the coming months and years now that tools like Anthropic’s are being adopted, this could make it easier for central banks to cut interest rates.

Thus, it will be worth listening out for any commentary around this topic at tomorrow’s BOE and ECB meeting. There has been no change in rate cut expectations in recent days and bond yields are relatively stable. The question is, will they stay this way as AI makes its mark on the world?

Investors get choosy about their stock picks

We expect software stocks to remain under pressure in the near term; however, it is not all bad for the AI supply chain. Memory and chip makers will be necessary to power Anthropic’s latest tools and the others that come after it. The AI trade is not moving in unison in 2026, and idiosyncratic factors may continue to drive stocks in the short term. This could keep the Nasdaq under pressure as other value-orientated sectors of the market and small caps are favoured over tech giants. S&P 500 futures are mostly unchanged right now, as fears about tech disruption come up against a strong fundamental backdrop in the US and Europe.

Rather than trading in unison, traders are getting picky about which companies they want exposure to. Earnings will be important for the direction of individual names. AMD’s stock could come under pressure later today after it reported earnings and a future outlook that disappointed analysts. In Europe, Novo Nordisk’s shares are lower by 18%, after it warned that sales will decline between 5% and 13% this year, lower than analysts had expected. This has wiped out the stock’s YTD gains.

Gold and Silver reclaim milestones

In contrast, the rally in gold and silver in the last two sessions has seen gold reclaim the $5,000 handle, and silver is back above $90. The oil price is also up a notch as geopolitical tensions come back to haunt markets. In the current period of AI disruption, we expect hard, real assets like commodities to remain in demand, which may help gold and silver’s recoveries to extend.

Without US economic data, the market is sensitive to headlines. The focus will shift to earnings, including Alphabet. BOE and ECB central bank meetings on Thursday will also come into focus for rates and the FX market, as the pound and the euro continue to rally vs. the USD into these meetings.

Source: xtb

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Edward Lawson

Commodity

Energy

Economic

Middle East Situation

Political

Syria's state-owned petroleum company has signed a memorandum of understanding with U.S. energy firm Chevron and Qatar-based Power International Holding to develop the nation's first offshore oil and gas field.

The deal was finalized on Wednesday in Damascus, with U.S. Special Envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, in attendance. This agreement marks Syria's first official move into offshore energy exploration as its new government works to expand hydrocarbon production and attract foreign investment.

Unpacking the Energy Partnership

According to Syria's state news agency, SANA, the agreement is designed to build strategic partnerships within the energy sector. The cooperation will focus on several key areas:

• Offshore exploration and development of oil and gas resources within Syria's territorial waters.

• Broader initiatives to support investment and growth in the country's energy infrastructure.

This pact represents a significant step for Syria as it seeks to leverage international partnerships to unlock its untapped offshore potential.

Rebuilding a Battered Oil Industry

Syria's oil and gas sectors were severely damaged during the country's nearly 15-year conflict, which resulted in widespread destruction and the loss of half a million lives.

Before the conflict began in March 2011, the oil sector was a cornerstone of the Syrian economy. In 2010, the country produced approximately 380,000 barrels of oil per day, with exports, primarily to Europe, generating over $3 billion. At the time, oil revenue accounted for about a quarter of the government's budget.

New Leadership Focuses on Economic Revival

The country's new authorities, which came to power after removing President Bashar Assad in December 2024, are prioritizing economic recovery.

This energy deal follows recent developments on the ground. Last month, Syrian government forces captured large areas of the oil-rich northeast and eastern regions from Kurdish-led fighters. This strategic gain could open up some of the country's largest oil fields for further exploration and development, aligning with the new government's economic agenda.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites