Bitcoin Hits $80K Mark, Triggers Short-Term Holder Capitulation

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin's drop to $80,000 triggered short-term holder capitulation. Experts suggest potential for recovery if $80K holds. Institutional cost bases in jeopardy amid market fluctuations.

Bitcoin's recent dip to approximately $80,000 has led to significant capitulation among short-term holders, suggesting it may represent a local cycle bottom according to on-chain analytics.

This event matters as it indicates a critical point in market trends, risking further losses if the price dips below $80K, while offering potential recovery signs.

Bitcoin's recent drop to approximately $80,000 has led to considerable capitulation among short-term holders. Analysts interpret this behavior as indicative of a potential local cycle bottom. Historical precedents suggest such scenarios are followed by recovery.

Key industry players, including CryptoQuant, document the capitulation among short-term Bitcoin holders. Crypto Dan, an analyst, noted the trend mirrors previous bottom-forming actions. Captain Faibik, another market technician, highlighted possible breakout scenarios.

The market downturn erased nearly $800 billion in Bitcoin's market cap. This marks the most severe monthly contraction since 2022, affecting the broader digital asset market as well. Institutional investors face pressure with cost bases near $80K.

The market slump impacts financial markets significantly, putting institutional investors at risk of sustaining losses. Despite this, analyst commentary points to historical recovery trends and the potential for technical relief if $80K holds.

The recent Bitcoin capitulation raises concerns amid investors, impacting sentiment and market strategies. This event reflects market volatility and economic uncertainty, demanding cautious investment strategies.

Historical data indicates similar capitulation phases have previously led to long-term recovery. Analysts warn of potential downside if $80K fails, but historical trends offer hope for stabilization and rebound. Technical analysis emphasizes the importance of resistance levels.

"The latest decline reflects a new wave of loss realization among recent buyers... this capitulation is smaller than previous ones, but the behavior mirrors the same bottom-forming action observed at earlier correction lows." — Crypto Dan, Analyst, CryptoQuant

Source: CryptoSlate

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Samantha Luan

Political

U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll attends a meeting with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy (not pictured), amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, November 20, 2025. Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Handout via REUTERS

· US and Russian officials meet over latest Ukraine peace plan

· Barrage of missiles and drones hits Kyiv

· Zelenskiy: will discuss sensitive issues with Trump

· Macron warns against capitulation

· Romania reports drone incursion, scrambles jets

U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll has held unannounced talks with Russian officials in Abu Dhabi as part of an intense new push by President Donald Trump's administration to end the war in Ukraine and more meetings were expected on Tuesday.

The talks come as U.S. and Ukrainian officials sought to narrow the gaps between them over a peace plan, with core issues still unresolved and Ukraine wary of being strong-armed into accepting a deal largely on the Kremlin's terms.

The exact nature of the talks in Abu Dhabi, which were confirmed to Reuters by a U.S. official, were not immediately clear, and it was not known who was in the Russian delegation. The U.S. official added that Driscoll, who has emerged as a point man for U.S. diplomatic efforts, was also expected to meet Ukrainian officials while in Abu Dhabi.

Underlining the stakes for Ukraine, its capital Kyiv was hit by a barrage of missiles and hundreds of drones overnight in an attack that killed at least six people. Residents were sheltering underground wearing winter jackets, some in tents.

ZELENSKIY: WILL DISCUSS SENSITIVE ISSUES WITH TRUMP

U.S. policy toward the war in Ukraine has zigzagged in recent months.

A hastily arranged summit between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska in August spurred worries in Kyiv and European capitals that Washington might accept many Russian demands, but ultimately resulted in more U.S. pressure on Russia.

The latest U.S. peace proposal, a 28-point plan that emerged last week, caught many in the U.S. government, Kyiv and Europe off-guard and prompted fresh concerns that the Trump administration might be willing to push Ukraine to sign a peace deal heavily tilted toward Moscow.

The plan would require Kyiv to cede more territory, accept curbs on its military and bar it from ever joining NATO, conditions Kyiv has long rejected as tantamount to surrender.

The sudden U.S. push raises the pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who is now at his most vulnerable since the start of the war in 2022 after a corruption scandal saw two of his ministers dismissed and as Russia makes battlefield gains.

Zelenskiy said on Monday that the latest proposed peace plan had incorporated "correct" points after talks over the weekend in Geneva but that sensitive issues were still to be discussed with Trump.

"As of now, after Geneva, there are fewer points, no longer 28, and many correct elements have been incorporated into this framework," Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address.

"Our team has already reported today on the new draft of steps and this is truly the right approach. The sensitive issues, the most delicate points, I will discuss with President Trump."

Zelenskiy said the process of producing a final document would be difficult. The Kremlin said it had nothing to say yet about reports of the Abu Dhabi meeting.

"Currently, the only substantive thing is the American project, the Trump project," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. "We believe that this could become a very good basis for negotiations."

MACRON WARNS AGAINST EUROPEAN CAPITULATION

A group of countries supporting Ukraine, which is known as the coalition of the willing and includes Britain and France, was set to hold a virtual meeting on Tuesday.

"It's an initiative that goes in the right direction: peace. However, there are aspects of that plan that deserve to be discussed, negotiated, improved," French President Emmanuel Macron told RTL radio about the U.S.-proposed peace plan. "We want peace, but we don't want a peace that would be a capitulation."

He added that only the Ukrainians could decide what territorial concessions they are ready to make.

"What was put on the table gives us an idea of what would be acceptable for the Russians. Does that mean that it is what must be accepted by the Ukrainians and the Europeans? The answer is no," Macron added.

Ukraine should not have to accept limits on the size of its military, he said. Macron also said frozen Russian assets are in Europe, and Europe alone can decide what to do with them.

In a separate development, Romania sent out fighter jets to track drones which breached its territory near the border with Ukraine early on Tuesday, and one was still advancing deeper into the country, the defence ministry said.

Tensions have mounted along Europe's eastern flank in recent months after suspected Russian drones breached the airspace of several NATO states.

Source: Reuters

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IC Markets

Forex

Economic

What happened in the Asia session?

During today's Asia session, financial markets were primarily influenced by optimism over a possible US Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which boosted Asian equities and impacted core instruments such as technology stocks, US Treasury yields, and regional forex pairs. Asian stocks, Japanese yen, and US Treasury yields were most affected by the headlines and economic data during today's Asia session, as market participants responded to monetary policy signals and softening global macro data.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

The market is alert to U.S. government data releases and their effects, as any surprising outcome in inflation or sales can impact Federal Reserve policy expectations. ECB, European banking sector, and EU investment rules developments continue to drive sentiment and capital flows, with ongoing efforts to support local industries and adapt to global trends. Watch for updates in central bank communications, particularly from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which may cut rates in its latest meeting, potentially influencing risk sentiment globally.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

The US dollar remains steady today, Tuesday, as investors continue to weigh the potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Market sentiment is cautious, with increased speculation putting mild pressure on the dollar against major currencies, although it has not led to significant moves so far. The dollar is currently stable but faces potential volatility pending today's US economic releases and evolving Federal Reserve rate cut outlook for December.

Central Bank Notes:

· The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.

· The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.

· Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September's consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflation pressure but still warranting vigilance given tariff-driven price effects.

· Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.

· The updated Summary of Economic Projections anticipates an unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections remaining near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.

· The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.

· The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability. Treasury redemption caps will remain steady at $5 billion per month, and agency mortgage-backed securities caps will remain at $35 billion.

· The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours BiasWeak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Gold remains in a range between $4,000 and $4,100, with a bullish bias unless significant support levels are breached; if prices were to fall below $3,905, analysts warn of further downside risks. The near-term outlook suggests that gold could resume its upward trend if global uncertainty persists and monetary easing takes place. Gold is benefiting from both macroeconomic uncertainty and rising expectations for U.S. monetary easing, keeping prices elevated and volatility high.Next 24 Hours Bias Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

The Euro is pressured by technical and fundamental headwinds, but short-term rebounds are possible at key support zones. Eurozone economic growth remains resilient despite slower employment and inflation deceleration. European policy attention is focused on support for Ukraine, AI adoption, and regulatory strategy, all of which could impact currency sentiment in the near term.Central Bank Notes:

· The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 30 October 2025 meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers' assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.

· Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility amid uncertain global financial conditions.

· Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.

· Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.

· The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, aided by stable banking sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.

· Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.

· The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.

· Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.

· The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025

Next 24 Hours BiasWeak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is experiencing a steady phase today, November 25, 2025, following recent volatility driven by trade and macroeconomic news. Demand for the franc remains supported by its safe-haven status, with the recent U.S.-Switzerland tariff deal playing a significant stabilizing role.The USD/CHF exchange rate was around 0.8079 as of November 24, 2025, reflecting a 0.19% daily drop; the franc is down 1.38% for the month but up nearly 9% year-on-year.Central Bank Notes:

· The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.

· Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.

· The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.

· The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.

· Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

· Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged

· The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.

· The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours BiasWeak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

The British pound is trading steadily just below $1.31 as markets focus on Wednesday's upcoming UK budget announcement. Expectations of a Bank of England interest rate cut in December are growing, with markets pricing in nearly a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction, which is capping gains for the pound and driving cautious sentiment.Central Bank Notes:

· The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 6 November 2025 and voted by a majority of 7–2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00 percent for a second consecutive meeting. The decision reflects the Committee's cautious approach as inflation remains above target, but underlying economic momentum continues to weaken. Two members maintained their votes for a 25-basis-point cut, citing further signs of labor-market softening and weak business sentiment.

· The BOE adjusted its guidance on quantitative tightening (QT), maintaining the reduced pace established in September. The planned reduction of UK government bond holdings remains at £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, leaving the current gilt balance near £550 billion. Policymakers described the recalibrated QT path as "appropriate for current market conditions," emphasizing the importance of liquidity management amid heightened volatility.

· Headline inflation moderated slightly to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent previously, driven by easing food and transport prices. However, core inflation has shown only gradual progress, holding near 3.9 percent. The MPC noted that services inflation and administered energy costs continue to exert pressure, highlighting the challenge of achieving the 2 percent target sustainably. The Committee's latest projections see inflation falling toward 3 percent by mid-2026, with further downside expected if energy and wage dynamics continue to normalize.

· Economic activity remains subdued. Estimates place Q3 GDP growth close to zero, with both business output and consumer spending restrained. The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.8 percent, while pay growth cooled to just under 5 percent year-on-year. MPC members acknowledged that pay settlements are weakening further, signaling an easing in labor cost pressures as demand softens. Surveys from the manufacturing and services sectors suggest muted hiring intentions through year-end.

· International factors continue to complicate the policy outlook. Fluctuating oil prices—partly linked to renewed Middle East tensions—alongside fragile global demand have contributed to higher market volatility. The MPC reiterated that external shocks, including global food and energy disruptions, could temporarily slow the disinflation path but remain unlikely to derail the medium-term moderation in prices.

· The Committee assessed risks around inflation as balanced. Downside risks arise from sluggish domestic growth and declining real income momentum, while upside risks remain tied to elevated inflation expectations and stubborn services inflation. Policymakers emphasized the need for patience, maintaining that any rate cuts ahead of clear inflation progress could undermine confidence in policy credibility.

· The MPC's overall stance remains restrictive but increasingly balanced, with future moves expected to follow a cautious, data-driven trajectory. The Committee reaffirmed that monetary policy will stay tight until there is compelling evidence that inflation is returning to the 2 percent target on a durable basis.

· The next meeting is on 18 December 2025.Next 24 Hours BiasWeak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

The Canadian dollar faces a confluence of bearish pressures on November 25, 2025. Weak oil prices below $58/barrel, Canada's widening trade deficit, and sticky domestic inflation that limits further BoC rate cuts are all weighing on the currency. While increased Fed rate cut expectations provided brief relief earlier in the session, the USD/CAD pair remains near seven-month highs around 1.4110.Central Bank Notes:

· The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.

· The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.

· Canada's economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.

· Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.

· Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to limit overall resale volumes, resulting in only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.

· Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank's target for the first time in six months. Higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs drove the increase. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.

· The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.

· The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours BiasMedium Bearish

Oil

Oil is trading sideways to slightly lower today after a modest rebound yesterday, with Brent around 63 USD and WTI just under 59 USD. The market is dominated by expectations of a 2026 supply surplus, driven by robust non‑OPEC output and still‑high OPEC+ production, while global demand growth looks softer. Conflicting signals around a Russia–Ukraine peace deal and sanctions on Russian oil are adding short‑term volatility but have not yet changed the bearish medium‑term narrative. Prospects of a US rate cut are offering some support, yet traders largely see any rally into the mid‑60s Brent area as a chance to sell strength rather than chase upside.

Next 24 Hours BiasMedium Bearish

Source: IC Markets

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Gerik

Economic

Policy Move to Secure Tariff Benefits

According to a report by Money Today, South Korea’s Democratic Party is preparing legislation aimed at facilitating outbound investment into the United States. This initiative is part of a broader strategy to solidify the country's position under a U.S.–South Korea tariff relief agreement, which would reduce duties on Korean exports in exchange for enhanced economic cooperation and foreign direct investment (FDI) into the American economy.

The proposed bill marks a significant step in institutionalizing trade and investment synergies between the two allies, ensuring that South Korea not only benefits from preferential market access but also demonstrates reciprocal commitment through capital outflows that support U.S. manufacturing and supply chain initiatives.

Background: Tariff Leverage in Strategic Sectors

The Biden–Trump administration’s mixed posture on trade has included both protectionist tariffs and selective exemptions based on strategic alignment. South Korea, with its strengths in semiconductors, EV batteries, and advanced manufacturing, has become a key player in Washington’s reshaped economic security framework.

The new bill would likely aim to streamline regulatory and financial support for Korean firms particularly in high-tech and critical industries seeking to expand operations in the U.S., where demand for localized supply chains has grown under “friendshoring” policies.

Implications: Anchoring Bilateral Trade and Investment Ties

By codifying investment flows into legislation, South Korea signals its intent to deepen U.S. economic ties amid rising geopolitical uncertainty and trade fragmentation. The move also aligns with broader trends in Asia-Pacific economic diplomacy, where countries increasingly exchange market access for strategic investment and industrial partnerships.

The bill, if passed, could further incentivize Korean firms such as Samsung, Hyundai, SK Hynix, and LG to ramp up U.S.-based operations, reinforcing their eligibility for tariff exemptions and positioning them more favorably in U.S. industrial policy frameworks.

This legislative initiative underscores how trade deals today are not only about reducing barriers but also about aligning long-term industrial strategies. South Korea’s move reflects a proactive approach to securing durable economic benefits in a complex trade environment balancing export growth with strategic investment to ensure mutual gain in U.S.–Korea relations.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

Taiwan Distances Itself from South Korea on U.S. Tariff Talks

Amid growing speculation around semiconductor tariff strategies, Taiwan’s Premier Cho Jung-tai firmly dismissed reports suggesting coordination with South Korea regarding U.S. President Donald Trump’s planned chip tariffs. Speaking before parliament on Tuesday, Cho stated unequivocally that Taiwan has "no information" about any such collaboration and is currently pursuing direct, bilateral discussions with Washington.

This clarification comes just a day after South Korea’s trade minister hinted at possible alignment with Taiwan to address Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda, which includes proposed duties on semiconductors, an industry core to both nations’ economies.

One-on-One Strategy with the U.S.

Cho reaffirmed that Taiwan’s trade negotiators are only engaged in individual discussions with the United States, seeking to mitigate the impact of a 20% tariff on certain exports, although semiconductors are presently exempt from those specific duties. He also emphasized the strategic importance of maintaining and strengthening global supply chain partnerships, particularly with countries whose capabilities complement Taiwan’s high-tech strengths.

This approach highlights Taiwan’s preference for direct diplomatic engagement over multilateral coalitions, likely to preserve negotiating clarity and minimize the risks of becoming entangled in competitive dynamics with other chip-making nations.

Strategic Rivalry with South Korea Stays "Benign"

While acknowledging the high degree of overlap between Taiwan and South Korea in the semiconductor sector, Cho downplayed any notion of aggressive rivalry, describing the competition as "benign." Both economies are home to global semiconductor giants Taiwan’s TSMC dominates contract chip manufacturing, while South Korea’s Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix lead in memory chips and foundry services.

Despite being competitors, the two countries share a vested interest in maintaining global supply chain stability and resisting disruptive tariffs that could fragment the chip industry’s delicate ecosystem.

U.S. Tariff Timeline Uncertain

The backdrop to these developments is ongoing ambiguity from Washington. Although Trump’s administration has pledged to introduce semiconductor tariffs as part of its broader protectionist agenda, recent reports suggest these measures may be delayed. U.S. officials have reportedly signaled hesitation, acknowledging potential downstream disruptions to domestic manufacturing and consumer electronics.

This uncertainty is fueling strategic positioning across Asia’s major chip producers, each seeking to secure favorable terms and shield their exports from potential tariffs that could erode competitiveness or displace supply chains.

Taiwan Holds Strategic Line in Chip Diplomacy

By confirming its solo approach and distancing itself from perceived coordination with South Korea, Taiwan is reinforcing its strategic autonomy in semiconductor diplomacy. While the global chip war unfolds with geopolitical implications, Taiwan is opting for cautious, focused engagement with Washington balancing its economic priorities with the need to avoid unnecessary entanglements in regional rivalries.

As U.S. trade policy evolves, Taiwan’s measured stance may position it more favorably in future tariff negotiations provided it can sustain its role as an indispensable supplier in the global semiconductor value chain.

Source: Reuters

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Justin

Forex

Stocks

Markets

Friday's dip buyers were rewarded by yesterday's buoyant market conditions, especially in the US. The EuroStoxx50 was still in doubt (+0.25%), but main US indices gained 1.55% (S&P) to 2.7% (Nasdaq). If they manage to take out last week's high, it would help put to bed fears of a developing sell-on-upticks market. The jury remains out, but stars seem to be aligning in what some hope for: a fresh rally into Christmas. US money markets trade more and more in line with our preferred December Fed rate cut scenario (75% probability).

Missing US eco data suggest room for the divided committee to push through one final "risk management" rate cut to bring the policy rate closer to/in neutral territory which is where you want to be as a central bank when conflicting forces on your dual mandate call for different action. Lower rates for downside employment risks and higher rates for upside inflation risks. It's clear now that the US government will limit data releases to outdated September numbers with new figures (October and/or November payrolls/CPI; Q3 US GDP) all packed between the Dec 10 Fed gathering and Christmas. On a geopolitical front, investors take some comfort by the fact that US President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are back on speaking terms.

After their first in-face encounter since Trump's first tenure ended in an extension of the trade truce by one year, both men yesterday spoke by phone to further discuss hot topics like fentanyl, soy beans, but also the Russian war in Ukraine. This weekend's high-stake talks in Geneva gave peace negotiations some fresh momentum. An initial US-brokered 28-point proposal was reduced to a new 19-point plan by the US & Ukraine. Key US and Russian negotiators began talks in Abu Dhabi last night which are set to continue today.

Today's eco calendar contains September US retail sales and PPI numbers, November Richmond Fed manufacturing index and November consumer confidence. We don't expect them to really shift market sentiment with regard to the Fed. The faith of the US tech/AI comeback is probably key for overall sentiment in the shortened US trading week (Thanksgiving on Thursday). In FX space, the (trade-weighted) dollar keeps bumping into first important resistance around 100.25. EUR/USD holds steady in the low 1.15-area, but the downside is still vulnerable.

News & Views

The European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) this morning published monthly European car registrations data. Car registrations in the EU in October were 5.8% higher compared to the same month last year. YTD registrations over the Jan-October period were higher by 1.4% Y/Y, slightly up from 0.9% in the previous month. Despite recent positive momentum, ACEA indicates that overall volumes remain far below pre-pandemic levels. The market share of battery electric cars reached 16.4% YTD, up from a low baseline in the Jan-Oct period of 2024, but ACEA assesses that this is still below the pace needed at this stage of the energy transition.

The largest four markets in the EU, which together account for 62% of battery-electric car registrations, saw gains: Germany (+39.4%), Belgium (+10.6%), the Netherlands (+6.6%), and France (+5.3%). Hybrid-electric vehicles lead as the most popular power type choice among buyers (34.6% share YTD), with plug-in hybrids ( 9.1%) continuing to gain momentum. The combined market share of petrol and diesel cars fell to 36.6%, down from 46.3% over the same period in 2024. By the end of October 2025, petrol car registrations declined by 18.3%, with all major markets experiencing decreases.

Over the previous days, US Commerce Secretary Lutnick revived a US demand for the EU to make its regulation of the tech sector more balanced. This could be the basis for the US to reduce its 50% levy on EU-imports of steel and aluminum. However, representatives of the European Commission already indicated that the EU digital rulebook is not up for negotiation as the regulation is seen as ensuring "fair markets and to protect consumers rights while ensuring Europe's digital future".

The US also wants the EU to resolve legal cases against big US tech corporations which the US interprets as a kind of non -tariff barrier. Europe from his side tries to convince the US that its rules are not discriminatory and don't target US companies. The debate comes as the EU is concerned on the scope of goods that the US keeps under the 50% metals regime, potentially undermining the broader trade agreement that was reached in July.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

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Economic

Stocks

Muted Start for Europe Amid Wall Street Optimism

European stocks failed to mirror the optimism seen in the U.S. and Asia-Pacific sessions, with early indications suggesting a subdued open across major indices. The FTSE 100 in the U.K. edged lower, Germany’s DAX slipped 0.2%, and France’s CAC 40 declined 0.42%. Italy’s FTSE MIB remained flat, according to IG data.

This cautious tone comes despite a rebound in U.S. equities on Monday, where hopes for a third consecutive Federal Reserve rate cut in December pushed indexes higher, particularly among AI-linked stocks. Asian markets followed suit overnight. However, European markets appear restrained, with investors digesting mixed macroeconomic signals and a raft of local catalysts.

Fed Rate Cut Speculation Fails to Lift Europe

Market sentiment continues to hinge on the Federal Reserve’s December policy outlook. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is now an 80% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut. This shift was catalyzed by dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who both signaled openness to policy easing amid labor market concerns.

Despite these signals, European investors remain focused on local risks and geopolitical dynamics, which are contributing to a more cautious trading stance.

Key Earnings and Data Releases in Focus

On the corporate front, earnings reports from Compass Group, EasyJet, and Kingfisher are scheduled for release. These updates may provide insight into consumer resilience and cost management across sectors such as food services, aviation, and retail.

Economic data will also guide sentiment, with Germany’s GDP figures and France’s consumer confidence data set to reveal the health of two of the eurozone’s largest economies. Any sign of stagnation or contraction may reinforce concerns over a sluggish recovery in the region.

ABN Amro Job Cuts Underscore Banking Sector Pressures

In financial news, Dutch lender ABN Amro announced plans to cut 5,200 jobs by 2028 as part of a long-term cost-cutting strategy. The bank also revealed its decision to sell its personal loan subsidiary, Alfam, to Rabobank, highlighting a continued trend of streamlining within European banking to preserve margins amid regulatory and digital transformation pressures.

Adding to investor caution is the geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Ukraine. A preliminary 28-point peace proposal drafted by U.S. and Russian officials reportedly without Ukrainian input suggests possible territorial concessions and military reductions by Ukraine, triggering concern across the EU.

At a Brussels summit on Monday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen rejected any deal that bypasses Ukrainian sovereignty. Her statement reaffirmed that any peace resolution must fully respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and right to self-determination, positioning the EU as a firm stakeholder in any diplomatic outcome.

Talks among the "Coalition of the Willing" are scheduled to continue, but the lack of consensus on a pathway forward could maintain geopolitical pressure on European defense and energy sectors.

U.K. Braces for Tax-Focused Autumn Budget

In domestic developments, U.K. investors are preparing for Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Autumn Budget announcement on Wednesday, which is expected to include significant tax increases aimed at stabilizing public finances. The anticipation of fiscal tightening may temper equity sentiment, especially among consumer-facing sectors and real estate.

While global cues especially from Wall Street and Asia remain positive, Europe’s trading session reflects a region grappling with its own set of challenges. From contentious geopolitical diplomacy over Ukraine to structural shifts in banking and cautious fiscal policy, European markets are navigating multiple headwinds. Until there is greater clarity on both the macro and geopolitical fronts, investor appetite for risk in the region may remain subdued, even in the face of more dovish U.S. monetary policy.