Bitcoin Forecast And BTC/USD Analysis For August 20, 2025

Winkelmann

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Forex

Summary:

BTC/USD quotes are trading at 113036 and continue to move within the downward trend, leaving the bullish channel.

BTC/USD quotes are trading at 113036 and continue to move within the downward trend, leaving the bullish channel. Moving averages indicate a short-term upward trend for Bitcoin. Prices have broken through the area between the signal lines downwards, indicating pressure from sellers of “digital gold” and a potential continuation of the decline in the asset’s value from current levels. As part of the cryptocurrency rate forecast for tomorrow, August 20, 2025, we can expect an attempt at a bullish correction in the value of the digital asset and a test of the support level near the 116605 area. From there, we can again expect a downward rebound and an attempt to continue the decline in the Bitcoin rate with a target below the 100765 area.

Bitcoin Forecast and BTC/USD Analysis for August 20, 2025

An additional signal in favor of a decline in BTC/USD quotes will be a test of the resistance line on the relative strength indicator. The second signal in favor of this option will be a rebound from the lower border of the bullish channel. A strong increase in the value of the asset and a breakout of the 114565 area will cancel the option of a fall in the coin’s price and the value of Bitcoin. This will indicate a breakout of the resistance area and a continuation of the growth of the Bitcoin price with a potential target at 107605. Confirmation of the asset price decline will be a breakout of the support area with the price consolidating below the 110505 mark.

Bitcoin Forecast and BTC/USD Analysis for August 20, 2025 suggests an attempt to test the resistance level near the 116605 area. Further, the cryptocurrency will continue to fall with a potential target at 100765. An additional signal in favor of a decline in the Bitcoin rate will be a test of the resistance line on the relative strength indicator. A breakout of the 114565 area will cancel the option of a decline in the digital currency. This will indicate the continuation of the coin’s growth with a potential target above 107605.

Source: forex24.pro

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Forex

Stocks

Thailand’s data centre capacity is expected to triple in the next three years as investments of about US$6.5 billion (RM27.5 billion) pour into the sector to meet surging demand for cloud computing and artificial intelligence (AI).The nation’s capacity is expected to rise to about one gigawatt in 2027 from 350 megawatts in 2024, said Supparat Singhara Na Ayutthaya, the vice-chairman of the Thai Data Center Association. A data centre requires an investment of about US$10 million for each megawatt, he said.

“Thailand has drawn tremendous interest for new data centre investments with its steady power generation and water supply,” Supparat said in an interview this week.Alphabet Inc’s Google, Amazon.com Inc, Microsoft Corp and Nvidia Corp are among global tech giants spending billions of dollars on AI infrastructure in Thailand and across Southeast Asia.“There will be many more global technology companies further diversifying their data centre facilities to Thailand,” Supparat said.

The expansion of Thailand’s data centre sector comes as the nation, a long-time manufacturing powerhouse for automobiles and electronics, accelerates efforts to boost its high-tech industries. The government wants Thailand to catch up to countries such as Malaysia and Singapore, regional leaders in data centre and cloud computing services.

In the first half of the year, Thailand’s Board of Investments approved investment applications worth 322 billion baht (US$9.9 billion or RM41.8 billion) for 36 tech projects, most of which were data centres, according to its website.The data centre association is awaiting clarity about the US plan to restrict shipments of AI chips and what effect that could have on the nation’s data centres, Supparat said.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Gerik

Economic

Investor Bets Intensify Ahead of Jackson Hole

With the Jackson Hole symposium only days away, global markets are sharply focused on the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Investors have begun making substantial bets on a dramatic policy shift, specifically a 50 basis point interest rate cut at the Fed’s September policy meeting. This aggressive expectation has manifested in a surge of activity around SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) options, a key financial instrument for rate speculation. According to trading data, nearly 325,000 contracts were opened with a collective investment of $10 million. If the Fed delivers the anticipated rate cut, these positions could yield up to $100 million in profit an outcome that reflects the growing conviction behind this monetary easing scenario.

Despite the enthusiasm, this speculative wave appears to contradict recent macroeconomic signals. The July Producer Price Index (PPI) showed its sharpest increase in three years, indicating sustained inflationary pressures. Ordinarily, such data would argue against rate cuts. However, rather than deterring investors, the bond market has reversed a three-day losing streak. Yields on government bonds have declined across multiple tenors, suggesting that markets are prioritizing future policy easing over immediate inflationary concerns. This divergence suggests a correlation, not a direct causality, between inflation data and market positioning. In this environment, expectations seem driven more by political signaling and central bank communication than by core economic indicators.

Strategic Caution Ahead of Powell’s Speech

Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rate strategy at BMO Capital Markets, warns that the biggest risk facing bond markets now is a hawkish surprise. Should Powell deliver a more restrained or cautionary tone at Jackson Hole, particularly regarding the timeline for rate adjustments, short-duration assets and SOFR-linked bets could face sharp repricing. The front end of the yield curve remains particularly sensitive to any deviation from the market’s dovish narrative. The risk here is causal if Powell fails to meet market expectations of dovishness, a correction is likely across rate-sensitive instruments.

A recent survey from JPMorgan adds further nuance. It reveals that institutional clients are beginning to pull back from bearish bond positions. During the week ending August 18, the proportion of clients holding short positions dropped by 4 percentage points, while neutral positions rose to their highest level in over a month. This shift implies a reassessment of risk and a move toward hedging rather than doubling down on any one policy path. The relationship here is reactive investors are adjusting strategies not based on economic fundamentals alone, but in anticipation of central bank tone and political signals.

Divergence Within Policymakers and Political Pressure

While the market continues to price in an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, there remains speculation about a more aggressive 50 basis point move, bolstered by voices within the Trump administration, such as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. However, this policy direction is far from consensual. Alberto Musalem, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), publicly stated that a 0.5 point cut would not be justified by current economic conditions. This internal divergence within the Fed reflects ongoing uncertainty and reinforces the importance of Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks.

The significance of Jackson Hole this year is amplified by its timing and context. With only three policy meetings left in 2025, Powell’s speech is expected to set the tone for the remainder of the year. Investors are anticipating clues about the Fed’s tolerance for inflation, its reaction function to labor market data, and its assessment of financial stability risks. Any shift in language or emphasis could redefine market expectations and capital flows globally. The causal link between Fed communication and global asset volatility is well established Jackson Hole will likely reinforce or recalibrate those expectations.

Markets are entering a critical phase defined by heightened expectations, economic ambiguity, and political pressure. The current investor enthusiasm for a deep rate cut reflects both a calculated opportunity and a risk-laden gamble. As policymakers weigh inflation resilience against slowing global demand, the Fed’s next move may either validate the speculative frenzy or trigger a sharp correction. All eyes now turn to Wyoming not for what Powell says, but for how far he’s willing to go in shaping the Fed’s roadmap for 2025.

Source: BNN

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Daniel Carter

Political

Palestinian-Israeli conflict

Israel's military is set to start the call-up of around 60,000 reserve soldiers for a stepped up offensive in Gaza against Hamas, according to an Israeli government official, even as it readies a response to a new ceasefire proposal.

An announcement on the call-up could come as soon as Wednesday, said the official, who wasn't authorized to speak publicly. The move will almost double the number of military personnel in or around Gaza.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently authorized a takeover by ground troops of Gaza City, the de-facto capital of the Palestinian territory, in a bid, he said, to destroy Hamas' remaining strongholds.

The decision has been criticized by some of Israel's main allies in Europe and many Israelis, with both groups saying Netanyahu should seek a ceasefire immediately to help end a conflict that's devastated Gaza. US President Donald Trump, Netanyahu's most crucial ally, has signaled he backs Israel's plans.

Hamas, designated a terrorist organization by the US and other governments, on Monday said it had agreed to a new ceasefire plan put forward by Egypt and Qatar, two key mediators. Israel has yet to respond. If it accepts the latest proposal — which follows many others that have been rejected by one side or the other this year — the Gaza City offensive would probably be put on hold or scrapped.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Gerik

Economic

First Year-Over-Year Decline Since 2023

South Korea’s food exports to the United States fell by 6.7% year-over-year in July 2025, totaling $139 million, according to data from the Korea Trade Promotion Corporation. This marks the first contraction since May 2023, signaling a shift in trade dynamics that may indicate more persistent challenges ahead. This decline is not just cyclical but structurally influenced by a combination of impending U.S. tariffs and weakening demand from American consumers.

Among the most affected categories, exports of ramyeon one of South Korea's top-performing export foods plunged 17.8% year-on-year to $14 million. Even sharper was the decline in snack exports, which fell 25.9% to $20 million. These two categories, previously buoyed by the Korean Wave and pandemic-driven pantry loading, are now facing a double bind: frontloaded purchases ahead of tariffs and fading momentum due to demand-side fatigue in the U.S. retail environment. Exports of sauces and ginseng also declined by 7.2% and 13.4% respectively, reinforcing that the slowdown spans multiple segments.

Tariff Timing Creates Stockpiling Effect

A key contributing factor to this downturn lies in anticipatory behavior by distributors and importers. The Trump administration’s announced plan to impose a blanket 15% tariff on all Korean imports starting August 7 caused a rush in orders during June, especially for instant noodles, which soared 58.7% compared to June 2024. The resulting stock buildup in the U.S. acted as a drag on July’s shipment volumes. The causal relationship here is clear: the timing of policy announcements distorted export figures through short-term demand pulling, leading to a statistical decline post-stockpiling.

Although cumulative food exports to the U.S. in the first seven months of 2025 rose 21.3% compared to the same period last year, the pace has decelerated significantly. In contrast, the same period in 2024 had seen a growth rate of 27%. This loss of momentum suggests a transition from external policy-induced growth to a potential structural plateau, particularly as long-term cost competitiveness is eroded by tariffs and weaker consumption.

Macroeconomic and Consumer Dynamics in the U.S. Weigh Heavily

Market analysts highlight a deteriorating U.S. consumer outlook as another critical headwind. With economic sentiment still subdued and household spending under pressure, discretionary categories like international food imports are being deprioritized. According to Kang Eun-ji from Korea Investment & Securities, even Korean companies operating domestically in the U.S., such as CJ CheilJedang, have reported sales declines in Q2, underlining that the issue is rooted in the broader U.S. consumer environment rather than logistics or supply constraints.

Recognizing the multifaceted risks, South Korea’s Agriculture Minister Song Mi-ryung convened an emergency policy meeting on August 20 the third such session this year. The objective is twofold: first, to present immediate governmental support measures for exporters, and second, to collect feedback from key stakeholders across the food and trade sectors. The government’s engagement suggests an intent to cushion the export sector from policy-induced shocks, but the outcome will depend heavily on how fast alternative markets can absorb the excess supply and how Korean exporters recalibrate pricing strategies in the face of rising U.S. trade barriers.

The July decline in food exports to the U.S. is not a mere statistical anomaly it reflects deeper structural vulnerabilities exposed by external tariffs and internal demand erosion in key markets. While South Korea's food industry has seen robust growth in the post-pandemic period, the twin pressures of geopolitically driven policy shifts and economic cooling in destination markets are forcing a strategic rethinking. Without adaptive trade responses and diversified market access, further contractions could follow in the second half of 2025.

Source: Bne

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Gerik

Economic

July Data Signals a Reacceleration of Price Pressures

The UK’s annual inflation rate climbed to 3.8% in July 2025, marginally above the forecasted 3.7%, and a continuation of the uptrend from 3.6% in June. Core inflation, which strips out volatile components such as energy and food, also edged higher to 3.8%, suggesting that underlying price dynamics remain persistent rather than transitory. The consumer price index now sits at its highest annual rate since early 2024, underlining a potential stalling of disinflation despite earlier signs of moderation.

The most prominent contributor to July’s inflation spike was the unexpected surge in airfares. According to the Office for National Statistics, the seasonal timing of school holidays prompted the sharpest July increase in air ticket prices since the methodology change in 2001. This reveals a causal relationship between demand spikes tied to holiday travel and inflation volatility in the services sector. Additionally, petrol and diesel prices rose, reversing last year’s base effect declines. Meanwhile, food inflation maintained upward momentum, with fresh produce, meats, coffee, and chocolate leading price gains demonstrating that energy and agricultural commodities continue to exert upward cost pressures.

Bank of England’s Policy Dilemma Intensifies

The Bank of England had recently initiated a cautious easing cycle, reducing interest rates from 4.25% to 4% in early August, marking a split decision with a narrow 5-4 vote. This policy recalibration, described by the central bank as “gradual and careful,” now faces greater scrutiny as sticky inflation undermines expectations for a smooth path toward monetary loosening. The inflation figure strengthens the case for a slower pace of rate cuts or a temporary pause, particularly as inflation remains above the BOE’s forecasted peak of 4% expected in September.

While inflation remains high, other macroeconomic indicators present a more nuanced backdrop. The UK economy surprised on the upside with a 0.3% quarterly GDP growth in Q2 2025, signaling mild recovery. However, this positive momentum contrasts with a softening labour market. The BOE is therefore caught in a balancing act: high inflation constrains policy space, while fragile growth conditions and employment trends call for continued accommodation. The relationship between these variables is partially causal restrained labour demand tempers wage-driven inflation yet the lag in core price softening suggests entrenched supply-side rigidities.

Sluggish Disinflation Ahead with Upside Risks

Deutsche Bank economists forecast that UK inflation will gradually moderate to 3.5% by year-end 2025 and continue to trend lower through 2026, potentially reaching 2.25% in Q4. However, this path is expected to be slow and uneven, with structural price pressures still embedded in sectors like housing, energy, and services. The current uptick in inflation narrows the window for achieving the BOE’s 2% target next year. The modelled projections also caution that upside risks such as currency depreciation, energy supply disruptions, or geopolitical instability could cause deviations from the baseline disinflation path.

July’s higher-than-expected inflation underscores the UK’s ongoing struggle with persistent price pressures. While headline figures remain well below the double-digit levels seen in 2022–2023, the path toward price stability remains uncertain. The Bank of England must now contend with a complex environment in which rate cuts are politically and economically desirable, but inflationary inertia may delay or dilute their execution. For markets and households alike, expectations will hinge on the BOE’s ability to strike a fine balance between curbing inflation and sustaining recovery.

Source: CNBC

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Gerik

Economic

Stocks

Earnings Growth Driven by IPO Revival and Trading Activity

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd. reported an unprecedented quarterly profit of HK$4.44 billion in Q2 2025, representing a 41% year-over-year increase. This performance reflects a structural improvement in core revenue, which climbed to HK$6.64 billion, underscoring the causal impact of renewed equity market activity on the exchange’s financials. A pivotal contributor to this growth was the revival of the IPO market, with total share sales reaching $46 billion so far in the year. The scale and velocity of these listings signaled a deliberate strategic shift by Chinese companies seeking to list in Hong Kong in response to ongoing geopolitical tensions abroad.

Equity trading volume nearly doubled from the previous year, with average daily turnover hitting HK$220 billion. This surge reveals both demand-side dynamism and improved market liquidity. Cross-border capital flows further illuminate a directional asymmetry: southbound flows from mainland China into Hong Kong surged by 154%, while northbound flows into Shanghai and Shenzhen rose a modest 19%. This gap suggests not merely correlation but directional causality, with Chinese investors increasingly treating Hong Kong as a capital exit point or a hedging hub amid domestic market uncertainty.

IPO Momentum Supported by Structural Reforms

HKEX's strong listing pipeline further reinforces expectations of continued capital inflow. In the first half of 2025, 44 IPOs raised HK$109.4 billion, while the active IPO queue swelled to 207 applicants more than double the number from the same period in 2024. Regulatory interventions played a foundational role in this acceleration. By lowering revenue thresholds and easing minimum float requirements, HKEX reduced entry barriers, making itself more competitive vis-à-vis global exchanges. The causal link between regulatory easing and IPO volume is evidenced by the proportional increase in applications post-reform.

Beyond operational income, HKEX’s net investment income from corporate funds rose 16% to HK$1.044 billion. This improvement was partly influenced by a one-off foreign exchange gain tied to the appreciation of the US dollar. While this FX movement is not structurally recurring, its impact on net income highlights the sensitivity of HKEX’s investment returns to currency fluctuations. In contrast, investment income from deposits declined 30% to HK$433 million, suggesting a shift in portfolio positioning. This shift culminated in the full redemption of its external portfolio in Q2 to finance a HK$6.3 billion purchase of permanent headquarters at Exchange Square, with HK$4.3 billion received already and HK$600 million anticipated in Q3.

Share Performance Reflects Investor Confidence

HKEX shares have surged 47% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index's 24.5% gain. This divergence reflects a market perception that HKEX is not only rebounding with the broader economy but also leading it. The performance gap suggests a causal relationship between HKEX’s strategic reforms, profitability, and investor confidence.

Chairman Carlson Tong acknowledged that while recent financial performance is commendable, vigilance is necessary in light of external risks such as tariffs, interest rate uncertainty, and geopolitical shifts. These factors, though currently not impeding growth, remain potential disruptors. Nonetheless, HKEX's adaptive regulatory measures and robust cross-border capital links place it in a favorable position to maintain momentum in the second half of 2025, especially as more Chinese firms seek financial refuge in Hong Kong’s relatively open and reform-friendly capital environment.