Bitcoin dips below $100K as US liquidity dries up

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin slipped under $100K as the U.S. shutdown drained liquidity, pressuring risk assets. ETF outflows continue, but technical indicators suggest this is a mid-cycle correction rather than a new bear market.

The US government shutdown has many consequences — and this time, bitcoin’s price is one of them. Now stretching past 36 days and marking the longest shutdown in US history, the standoff has quietly drained liquidity from the financial markets.

The reaction was swift. In a market already dominated by fear, BTC dropped 10.5% between Monday and Tuesday to $99,000, before recovering to nearly $103,000. Whether this proves to be the start of a deeper correction or simply another mid-cycle shakeout will depend on three things: how quickly liquidity returns once Washington reopens, and whether investor attention and technical strength can follow.

How the shutdown drains liquidity

Bitcoin has long mirrored global liquidity cycles, typically lagging the global M2 money supply by two to three months. With M2 still expanding — partly driven by China’s record 8.4% y-o-y M2 expansion in September 2025 — the broader macro backdrop remains supportive. Yet on shorter timeframes, local liquidity shocks in the US can override global trends.

The shutdown has pushed the Treasury General Account (TGA) above $1 trillion, which has drained cash reserves from the Federal Reserve and tightened conditions in overnight funding markets. Short-term borrowing rates, such as SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) and repo, remain high, reflecting ongoing market volatility. With reserves now below $2.9 trillion, funding stress is approaching levels last seen in late 2018, when overnight rates briefly spiked out of control.

This dynamic matters because when money moves into the TGA, it leaves the banking system. The longer the government remains shut, the less cash circulates — exactly the opposite of what risk assets like bitcoin thrive on.

Some near-term relief may come as month-end pressures fade, but reserve levels are already so low that volatility is likely to persist. The latest Treasury announcement, issued on November 3rd, showed that the Treasury expected to end the year with approximately $850bn in its account. When the government finally reopens, the TGA should decline again, injecting at least $150bn of liquidity back into the system.

Bitcoin momentum needs to return

Simply restoring liquidity to normal levels may not be enough to ignite a new bitcoin rally. The asset also needs to regain momentum and investor attention.

According to the latest Wintermute report, even as global liquidity expands and central banks pivot toward rate cuts, most new capital is flowing into equities and AI, not crypto. Analysts highlight two key indicators to watch: the behavior of ETF investors and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) — companies that hold significant bitcoin reserves on their balance sheets.

So far, the picture isn’t encouraging for funds. Bitcoin ETFs have experienced steady outflows, with between $200m and $500m exiting daily since last Wednesday, according to data from Coinglass.

Bitcoin dips below $100K as US liquidity dries up_1

On the DAT front, however, there may be a glimmer of optimism. Strategy Inc. ($MSTR), founded by Michael Saylor, announced on November 3 a new preferred stock offering called STRE — a euro-denominated, 10 % coupon instrument. The company plans to issue 3.5 million shares at €100 each, potentially injecting fresh liquidity into the bitcoin ecosystem while opening its “digital credit factory” to the euro markets.

BTC technical signals promise resilience

A 21 % pullback from October 6’s all-time high of $126,400 is hardly alarming given bitcoin’s typical volatility. What concerns traders more are rare technical signals now flashing.

One is the 50-week moving average, a key long-term support line. Analyst Kevin Svensen notes that bitcoin has tested this level twice in the current cycle without breaking its trend. “This is the lowest BTC can go without doing critical damage,” he wrote, adding that a weekly close above the 50-week SMA (around $103 K) would confirm the uptrend’s survival.

Bitcoin dips below $100K as US liquidity dries up_2

At the time of writing, BTC is resisting above that threshold, offering some relief to traders who hope that a strong weekly close could mark the start of another leg higher.

Others view the recent correction as a mid-cycle reset, rather than the start of a bear market. Trader Merlijn The Trader, who tracks 30 top-cycle indicators, including the Pi Cycle Top, Puell Multiple, and MVRV Z-score, notes that none have triggered yet. He argues that the market has not experienced its usual “euphoria phase” that typically precedes a cycle peak. In his words, “This is mid-cycle energy, not exit-liquidity season.”

Source: marketscreener

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Adam

Economic

Wall Street's main indexes extended losses to a second session on Friday, and were set for weekly declines, as concerns about the economy and sky-high valuations in the technology sector soured sentiment.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC) declined almost 2% on Thursday after Wall Street executives earlier this week warned a market correction could be on the way.

The S&P 500 and the Dow are both set for their steepest weekly loss in four, while the Nasdaq is poised for its worst weekly performance since March.

"There is a continuation of the concern of a possible pullback... it's traditional early November weakness triggered by elevated valuations and the running out of catalysts to support or propel the market," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.

Optimism around artificial intelligence has pushed markets to all-time highs this year, but concerns over monetization of the technology and circular spending within the industry has dampened enthusiasm for U.S. stocks in recent days.

Tech stocks such as Nvidia (NVDA.O) and Broadcom (AVGO.O) fell 2.8% and 2.2%, respectively. The information technology sector (.SPLRCT), and the broader semiconductor index (.SOX), were set for their biggest weekly declines in seven months.

At 10:01 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 138.50 points, or 0.30%, to 46,773.80, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 46.63 points, or 0.69%, to 6,673.69 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) lost 278.31 points, or 1.21%, to 22,775.68.

The CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX) , Wall Street's fear gauge, hit its highest level in more than two weeks.

Tesla (TSLA.O) shareholders approved the largest corporate pay package in history for CEO Elon Musk. Shares fell 3.3% tracking broader market sentiment and weighed down the consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) sector.

On the earnings front, data compiled by LSEG until Thursday showed 83% of 424 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results so far have beaten Wall Street expectations, the highest rate of better-than-expected results since the second quarter of 2021.

Expedia (EXPE.O) jumped 16% to top the S&P 500 after the online travel platform boosted its forecast for full-year revenue growth and posted third-quarter profit above expectations.

ECONOMIC CONCERNS LINGER

The longest U.S. government shutdown in history has led to an information gap, with Federal Reserve policymakers divided on the future of monetary policy as private data paints a mixed picture of the economy.

The economic impact of the shutdown was far worse than expected, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said in an interview with Fox Business Network.

Meanwhile, the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index was 50.3 this month, compared with estimates of 53.2 according to economists polled by Reuters.

"The question is, will it exacerbate an economic slowdown within the U.S.? There is a lot of uncertainty... it's not just the Fed that is flying blind, it is the American consumer and investor as well," said Stovall.

Among others, Block (XYZ.N) slumped 10.5% after missing third-quarter profit expectations, and Take-Two Interactive (TTWO.O) declined 6.6% after delaying its popular video game GTA VI to November 2026.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.29-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.99-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 posted 8 new 52-week highs and 10 new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 18 new highs and 211 new lows.

Source: reuters

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Justin

Central Bank

Americans expect inflation to moderate in the near term while expressing concerns about the job market and their personal finances, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York report released Friday.

The bank's Survey of Consumer Expectations for October showed households anticipate inflation to reach 3.2% a year from now, down from September's 3.4% expectation. Three and five-year inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3% for both time horizons.

Despite the improved inflation outlook, respondents showed increased concern about employment conditions. They predicted a higher unemployment rate in the coming year compared to the previous month's survey and anticipated greater difficulty finding work if they became unemployed, though they expressed less worry about losing their current jobs than in September.

The heightened concern about future employment was particularly pronounced among respondents under age 60 and those with some college education.

The survey also revealed growing pessimism about both current and future financial situations. However, Americans reported that credit is now easier to obtain and expected it to become even more accessible in the future.

Expectations for future earnings and income were mixed in October. Households anticipated declines in gasoline and food prices, while the expected year-ahead increase in medical costs reached its highest level since February 2023.

The survey was conducted throughout October amid the government shutdown and growing concerns about job market conditions. Last week, the Fed reduced its interest rate target by a quarter percentage point to the 3.75%-4.00% range, aiming to support employment while maintaining downward pressure on inflation, which remains above the Fed's 2% target.

Fed officials have indicated that the relative stability of longer-term inflation expectations gives them confidence that inflation will eventually return to target, as these expectations significantly influence current price pressures.

Source: Investing

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Daniel Carter

Economic

The Trump administration plans to auction offshore drilling rights across roughly half of the Gulf of Mexico next month, the first of 30 such lease sales in the area.

Roughly 80 million acres across the Gulf of Mexico, which Trump re-named the Gulf of America, will be available under the sale being held December 10, the Interior Department's Bureau of Ocean Energy Management said in the notice Friday. The agency said it was setting the lowest royalty rate permitted - 12.5%- "to encourage strong industry participation."

The lease sales are required under President Donald Trump's tax and spending bill, signed into law over the summer.

In all, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act mandates 36 sales of offshore oil and gas drilling rights, including 30 in the Gulf as well as at least six to be held in Alaska's Cook Inlet. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management said in the notice Friday it planned to make about 1 million acres available in the Cook Inlet area for a lease sale planned for March 4, 2026.

The administration in the coming weeks is set to unveil a draft of a broader plan laying out a schedule of oil and gas right sales over a five-year schedule.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Devin

Commodity

Gold (GC=F) futures sat near $4,000 per ounce on Friday, remaining steady after last month's sharp sell-off but raising questions over where the precious metal is headed next.

Gold is still on pace for its best year since 1979, driven by central bank purchasing and increased inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), bar and coin purchases. But the yellow metal is off roughly 9% from its all-time high north of $4,350 last month.

Analysts at Macquarie Group said Thursday they believe gold prices have likely peaked, noting that other central banks began cutting rates ahead of the Federal Reserve, which has remained noncommittal about another move in December. Rate cuts typically boost the metal's appeal over yield-bearing assets.

"With global growth beginning to rebound, central bank easing cycles near an end, real interest rates still relatively high and tensions between the US and China easing (at least for now), we suspect the near-term peak is in, with prices likely to fall over the coming year." chief economist Ric Deverell wrote on Thursday.

"However, the decline will likely be slower than seen after previous peaks, with prices remaining well above the end-2023 level through the current US Presidential term," he added. Gold was sitting near $2,000 per troy ounce almost two years ago.

The analysts noted if geopolitical tensions re-escalate or concerns about the size of the US government return, gold may rally further.

Gold saw its biggest daily drop in more than a decade in October, bringing a stunning rally to a sudden stop. It still ended the month with a roughly 5% gain.

A World Gold Council report released earlier this week said that a stronger dollar fueled gold's seesaw from its recent all time high.

"With no long-term momentum 'sell' signals seen thus far, our view is that an October decline will likely provide a healthy and much needed breather in the core long-term uptrend," the report said.

Even if a peak is reached, some Wall Street analysts still expect gold to rise from current levels from end of year.

"Despite the recent pullback in gold to around USD 4,000 an ounce from a peak above USD 4,300/oz, our target remains USD 4,200/oz for the next 12 months; a rise in political and financial market risks could lead gold to our upside target of USD 4,700/oz," UBS analysts said in note on Thursday.

Meanwhile Goldman Sachs analysts predicted last month that gold will reach $4,900 per troy ounce by the end of next year.

"While a correction in speculative upside call options structures likely contributed to the selloff, we believe sticky, structural buying will continue further, and still see upside risk to our $4,900 end-2026 forecast from growing interest in gold as a strategic portfolio diversifier," said Goldman Sachs analysts in October.

Analysts at Macquarie Group believe gold prices have peaked despite the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts, which typically tend to make the yellow metal more attractive to investors against yield-bearing assets. REUTERS/Mariya Gordeyeva/File Photo · Reuters / Reuters

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Samantha Luan

Forex

Economic

Key points:

· US says it has regional support for draft UN resolution on Gaza peace plan

· US official: if the region is with us on the text, the Security Council should be too

· Draft text would give two-year mandate for international force to stabilize Gaza

· US official: text gives force authority to disarm Hamas

The United Nations Security Council on Thursday will start negotiations on a U.S.-drafted resolution to endorse President Donald Trump'sGazapeace plan, said a senior U.S. government official, and authorize a two-year mandate for a transitional governance body and international stabilization force.

The U.S. formally circulated the draft resolution to the 15 council members late on Wednesday and has said it has regional support from Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates for the text.

"The message is: if the region is with us on this and the region is with us on how this resolution is constructed, then we believe that the council should be as well," the senior U.S. government official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters.

A council resolution needs at least nine votes in favor and no vetoes by Russia, China, France, Britain or the United States to be adopted. When asked when the draft text could be put to a vote, the official said: "The sooner that we move, the better. We're looking at weeks, not months."

"Russia and China will certainly have their inputs, and we'll take those as they come. But at the end of the day, I do not see those countries standing in the way and blocking what is probably the most promising plan for peace in a generation," the official said.

Trump told reporters later on Thursday that the international force would deploy "very soon." U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio then noted that the countries volunteering to contribute troops "need this U.N. mandate in order to be able to do it."

INTERNATIONAL FORCE WOULD HAVE AUTHORITY TO DISARM HAMAS

The draft resolution, seen by Reuters, would authorize a Board of Peace transitional governance administration to establish a temporary International Stabilization Force in Gaza that could "use all necessary measures" - language for force - to carry out its mandate.

The ISF would be authorized to protect civilians and humanitarian aid operations, work to secure border areas with Israel, Egypt and a "newly trained and vetted Palestinian police force."

The ISF would stabilize security in Gaza by "ensuring the process of demilitarizing the Gaza Strip, including the destruction and prevention of rebuilding of the military, terror, and offensive infrastructure, as well as the permanent decommissioning of weapons from non-state armed groups."

The official said the draft U.N. resolution gives the ISF authority to disarm Palestinian militants Hamas, but that the U.S. was still expecting Hamas to "live up to its end of the agreement" and give up its weapons.

Hamas has not said whether it will agree to disarm and demilitarize Gaza — something the militants have rejected before.

INTERNATIONAL FORCE LIKELY AROUND 20,000 TROOPS

The senior U.S. official said the ISF was shaping up to be around 20,000 troops.

While the Trump administration has ruled out sending U.S. soldiers into the Gaza Strip, it has been speaking to Indonesia, the UAE, Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and Azerbaijan to contribute.

"We've been in steady contact with the potential troop contributors, and what they need in terms of a mandate, what type of language they need," said the official. "Almost all of the countries are looking to have some type of international mandate. The preferred is U.N."

The official said he was unaware if Israel had ruled out any specific countries from contributing troops to the ISF, but added: "We're in constant conversations with them." Israel said last month it would not accept Turkish armed forces in Gaza under the U.S. peace plan.

That 20-point plan is annexed to the draft U.N. Security Council resolution.

"Time is not on our side here. The ceasefire is holding, but it is fragile, and ... we cannot get bogged down in wordsmithing in the council. I think this is a real test for the United Nations," the senior U.S. official said.

Source: TradingView

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Adam

Economic

OpenAI isn't preparing for a public debut, at least not yet. With complex and seemingly insatiable financial needs, its executives are doubtless content without the obligations, disclosures, and instant quantifiable judgment that come with trading on the open market.

It is doing something in public, however, and at the very least is vying for broad public support as it pitches itself as a national strategic asset that the US government should cherish and protect. And so far, dealing with the public attention from its pitch has been somewhat of an ordeal.

Amid the advocacy, we've already seen a few minor PR snafus seemingly cause major stress for CEO Sam Altman and Co. Leave it to your imagination — or ChatGPT — to paint a picture of what the stress of regular reporting and inspection might do to the ambitious, talented, and financially stretched operation.

On stage at a Wall Street Journal event, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar said that OpenAI is looking for Washington to provide loan guarantees to the world's largest private company. After a brief backlash, Friar softened her stance in a LinkedIn post, walking back the remarks and clarifying that her use of the word "backstop" muddied the point.

To drive the point home further, Altman gave another C-suite clarification in a lengthy post on X Thursday, again denying his company is looking for a bailout.

So, to recap: OpenAI is now clearly stating it isn't seeking a government backstop for its massive financial commitments.

The reaction to Friar's initial comments and her and Altman's apparent walk-back arrived at a touchy moment for OpenAI. In a podcast released last weekend, Altman was asked by investor Brad Gerstner how his startup could fulfill a pledge to spend more than $1 trillion when it generated roughly $13 billion in revenue this year. Instead of answering, Altman appeared to turn on Gerstner.

"Brad, if you want to sell your shares, I'll find you a buyer," Altman responded. "Enough."

The clip, which has been widely shared online and features Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella laughing through the moment, as if to relieve the tension, hasn't reflected well on Altman.

It's important to note this wasn't an adversarial interview between a working journalist and a tech exec, but a friendly podcast between business leaders with common financial interests. The question, and more basic versions of it, have been bouncing around the AI space for a while. How can AI companies spend so much with so little revenue?

Gerstner's prompt was an invitation to explain OpenAI's business plans. But Altman seemed to take it as an accusation and an attack. Maybe the difficult or unfortunate answer explains Altman's stress. Regardless, for audiences watching and sharing the video online, his defensiveness came off as petty and unwarranted and, more broadly, as a key moment in the backlash against the perceived gluttony of AI companies.

"This will be in the documentary," as one observer put it, summarizing the exchange. For a tech movement that feeds off vibes and dreams rather than tangible profits, this stuff matters.

If OpenAI first got into trouble for taking other people's work, and then taking away people's jobs, the next affront could be taking people's money, leaving the government on the hook if the AI party ends, should the "backstop" question reemerge.

In the same interview, Altman said one of the rare instances he'd want OpenAI to be a public company is to tell his haters to short the stock so he might prove them wrong. Meanwhile, Friar said this week that OpenAI isn't working on an IPO just yet, focusing instead on growth.

OpenAI may not want to be a publicly traded company. But it's seeking guarantees that only American taxpayers can provide.