Asian Markets Trade Mixed in Quiet Session as Tech Weakens and Fed Expectations Loom

Economic

Stocks

Summary:

Asian equities were broadly mixed on Friday during a holiday-thinned session, with investor sentiment weighed down by tech sector losses and cautious optimism around U.S. monetary policy....

Muted Activity Amid U.S. Holiday Closure

With Wall Street closed for Thanksgiving, Asian trading was subdued on Friday, characterized by light volume and localized economic signals. While some benchmarks edged higher, the region offered no clear direction, reflecting investor uncertainty as global markets await signals from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting.

Despite recent optimism fueled by artificial intelligence developments and softening inflation data in the U.S., traders appear to be reassessing the durability of the rally. The pause follows a four-day winning streak for major U.S. indexes, including a 0.8% gain for the Nasdaq and 0.7% rises in both the Dow and S&P 500 on Wednesday.

Tokyo Inflation Holds, Reinforcing Rate Shift Expectations

Japan’s Nikkei 225 finished flat at 50,172.60, with notable weakness in AI-related shares such as Kioxia Holdings, Fujikura, and Lasertec. These losses highlight a reversal in speculative interest around AI, which had previously boosted valuations. Meanwhile, Tokyo’s core inflation for November remained at 2.8% year-on-year above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for a second straight month. This persistent inflation reinforces a potential policy shift, though a rate hike at the December BOJ meeting is still viewed as unlikely. The inflation trend, while stable, suggests a long-term causal relationship with rising rate expectations, which may gradually pressure equity valuations.

South Korea’s Kospi dropped 1.4% to 3,930.95, dragged lower by a 26.5% month-on-month collapse in semiconductor production in October. The fall in chip output contributed to a broader 4% decline in industrial production, more severe than September’s 1.1% drop. Major tech names like LG Energy Solutions, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics led the slide. The data reinforces a direct causative link between weakening production activity and market underperformance in tech-heavy indices.

China and Hong Kong Diverge Slightly

In Greater China, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 0.2% to 25,896.33, weighed by property and tech names. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite inched up 0.2% to 3,883.46, supported by marginal buying in domestic-focused sectors. The divergence between the two markets reflects differing investor perceptions: while Hong Kong’s globally exposed firms face foreign capital outflows and regulatory risk, Shanghai’s relative insulation offers modest resilience.

Australia’s ASX 200 fell 0.1% to 8,608.90, as resource-related sectors failed to offset broader weakness. In contrast, Taiwan’s Taiex rose 0.9%, benefiting from renewed interest in electronics exports. India’s Sensex added 0.1%, supported by stable domestic conditions ahead of upcoming GDP data releases.

Currency and Commodity Moves Provide Little Direction

In currency markets, the U.S. dollar rose slightly against the Japanese yen to 156.34, while the euro edged lower to $1.1584. Oil prices nudged higher, with Brent crude gaining 21 cents to $63.08 per barrel and U.S. crude adding 43 cents to $59.08. The modest uptick in crude reflects both technical correction and tentative geopolitical calm as oil markets await the weekend’s OPEC+ meeting.

Friday’s session reflects a moment of hesitation in global equity markets. With no definitive macro signal and Wall Street on pause, Asian markets responded primarily to local data and sector-specific weakness, especially in tech. Inflation readings in Japan and industrial output in Korea reveal potential structural strains, while broader expectations of a dovish Fed continue to support longer-term risk appetite. As trading volume normalizes next week, the sustainability of this optimism will likely face fresh tests from central bank policy signals, earnings forecasts, and geopolitical developments.

Source: AP

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Oil Suffers Longest Decline Since 2023 as Market Sentiment Weakens

Crude markets are bracing for their worst monthly performance in over two years. Brent crude is hovering just above $63 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) remains near $59, both benchmarks reflecting a fourth consecutive monthly drop in November. The last time oil suffered such a prolonged downturn was in the first half of 2023, indicating a significant divergence from the typical seasonal strength expected in the final quarter of the year.

The primary driver behind this sustained weakness is the growing imbalance between supply and demand. Analysts at JPMorgan estimate a surplus of 2.8 million barrels per day in 2026 and 2.7 million in 2027, fueled by both OPEC+ members restoring capacity and increased output from non-OPEC nations. This forecasted oversupply represents a clear causal factor in declining prices, as excess inventory weighs heavily on near-term market expectations.

OPEC+ Meeting Looms with Limited Surprise Potential

As OPEC+ prepares for a virtual meeting on Sunday, market participants are expecting the alliance to maintain its decision to pause output increases into early 2026. With this consensus already priced in, attention may shift toward long-term discussions on capacity reviews among member states.

Unless the meeting delivers unexpected production cuts, its impact on prices could be muted. The correlation between OPEC+ policy stability and sustained price stagnation is evident, as repeated announcements without aggressive action fail to counteract the bearish supply outlook.

Trading Disrupted as CME Glitch Freezes Futures Activity

In a rare technical disruption, trading of WTI crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) was halted Friday morning in Asia due to a system glitch reported by the CME Group. While the freeze had no lasting price impact, it briefly obscured real-time market response and highlighted the fragility of digital infrastructure in highly reactive commodity markets.

The pause in trading reflects a correlation not a causal effect on prices, but nonetheless illustrates the sensitivity of the oil market to information flow disruptions, particularly during pivotal geopolitical or policy moments.

Geopolitical Winds Shift: Peace Talk Signals from Moscow

A potentially game-changing geopolitical variable re-entered the oil market equation this week. Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled openness to U.S.-led peace negotiations concerning Ukraine, noting that former President Trump’s proposals could serve as a foundation. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is scheduled to visit Moscow, raising the possibility of early-stage diplomatic momentum.

If realized, a de-escalation in the Ukraine conflict could trigger a relaxation of Western sanctions on Russian oil flows. This outcome would introduce significant downward pressure on global prices by enabling restricted volumes to re-enter markets, particularly in Asia. However, Mukesh Sahdev of XAnalysts warns that Russia may stockpile crude initially to manage price impact, creating a brief bullish blip before longer-term bearish effects materialize.

Russian Oil Storage Surges Amid Sanctions Stress

In a sign of mounting logistical strain under sanctions, Russia’s oil field storage levels have risen above 16 million barrels a level observed only twice since the invasion of Ukraine began in 2022. This increase points to production outpacing exports, which may stem from both logistical bottlenecks and reduced access to shipping and insurance services.

The buildup is a direct consequence of sanctions, representing a cause-effect dynamic that could distort supply flows and complicate price forecasts in the months ahead.

Oil’s weak performance in November is the result of a confluence of structural oversupply, muted OPEC+ policy intervention, and tentative diplomatic developments. While the technical glitch at CME underscores the market’s volatility, the broader trajectory is shaped by fundamentals and geopolitics. Whether December brings relief or further declines will depend largely on whether OPEC+ shifts strategy, sanctions on Russian oil ease, and demand surprises emerge. For now, the market remains in a fragile equilibrium, with bearish pressure holding firm.

Source: Bloomberg

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Gerik

Economic

Diplomatic Realignment in the Taiwan Strait Dispute

China’s latest diplomatic initiative underscores a deepening rift with Japan over Taiwan and signals Beijing’s attempt to recalibrate international support. On Thursday, China’s top diplomat Wang Yi held a call with Emmanuel Bonne, diplomatic adviser to French President Emmanuel Macron, urging mutual backing on “core interests,” a veiled reference to Taiwan and sovereignty concerns. The appeal comes just days before Macron’s scheduled state visit to China and reflects growing urgency from Beijing to secure European neutrality or even tacit support as geopolitical competition in East Asia intensifies.

The current dispute was sparked by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s November 7 remarks that explicitly connected Japan’s national security to a potential Taiwan Strait crisis. This marked a historical first from a sitting Japanese leader, intensifying Beijing’s perception of strategic encirclement. In Beijing’s view, this linkage elevates the Taiwan issue from rhetorical ambiguity to an actionable military contingency involving a key regional rival.

Beijing has characterized the comments as a direct affront to Chinese sovereignty. The Chinese Communist Party’s official newspaper, People’s Daily, condemned the remarks as a “serious provocation,” indicating a cause-effect relationship between Takaichi’s language and China’s escalated diplomatic posture. This escalation includes a formal letter to UN Secretary-General António Guterres, in which China accused Takaichi of violating international law.

France’s Role: A Strategic Buffer or a Symbolic Ally?

China’s outreach to France carries both symbolic and strategic weight. Macron’s upcoming visit is expected to focus on trade and commercial cooperation, but Beijing is clearly aiming to extend the agenda into the geopolitical arena. Wang Yi’s request for France to "firmly support each other on core interests" is a direct test of whether France’s diplomatic engagement with China can remain purely economic or will inevitably drift toward strategic alignment.

France has not publicly responded to the request. However, the context is complicated by Macron’s own recent conversation with Takaichi on November 23, during which both sides reaffirmed their bilateral partnership and advanced talks on a Reciprocal Access Agreement for joint military training. This reflects a growing trend of strategic alignment between Japan and fellow G7 democracies, driven by mutual concern over any unilateral attempts especially by China to alter the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.

China’s Escalating Strategy: Diplomatic, Economic, and Rhetorical Pressure

China’s response to Takaichi’s statement has not been limited to diplomatic engagement. It includes economic reprisals and a coordinated media narrative aimed at isolating Japan’s position internationally. This multi-pronged strategy signals that Beijing views Tokyo’s remarks not as isolated rhetoric but as part of a broader shift in Japan’s security doctrine one that could justify future regional defense cooperation or even intervention.

Although causality between Japan’s public remarks and potential troop deployment has not been established, the Chinese government’s framing suggests that it views even hypothetical linkages as threats requiring preemptive diplomatic countermeasures.

Despite calls from Beijing to retract her comments, Takaichi has refused. She clarified this week that her remarks were not intended to signal any specific Taiwan policy but were in line with Japan’s broader contingency planning, which evaluates threats based on real-time intelligence and context. This clarification retains an element of strategic ambiguity a traditional pillar of Japan’s security stance while asserting a right to respond to regional instability.

China’s move to involve France in its dispute with Japan reflects the increasingly global dimension of the Taiwan issue. It is no longer confined to cross-strait dynamics but intersects with broader alliances, multilateral institutions, and global norms. Whether France responds to Beijing’s overture may set a precedent for how European powers engage with the U.S.-led alliance network in Asia. The coming weeks, particularly around Macron’s state visit, will reveal whether Europe leans toward economic pragmatism with China or strategic solidarity with democratic allies in Asia.

Source: Bloomberg

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James Whitman

Economic

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday his administration could slash federal income taxes "substantially" or even eliminate them "completely" within the next few years, relying on soaring tariff revenues.

Speaking to U.S. military service members, Trump argued that the money coming in from tariffs could grow so large that it might fully replace income tax income.

The proposal is consistent with Trump's broader trade-first fiscal agenda, which envisions tariffs as the backbone of federal revenue. While he offered no detailed roadmap or timetable, the remarks signal a dramatic shift away from conventional taxation.

Trump had also floated the idea of a "tariff dividend." Earlier this month, he argued his critics had been proven wrong and pledged that most Americans would get at least $2,000 from the tariff windfall.

Source: Investing

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Samantha Luan

Political

Economic

It's been months since the European Union started working on a legal framework to use frozen Russian assets for a €140 billion ($162 billion) loan to Ukraine to bolster its war effort. The pressure to get it done is now ratcheting up as Donald Trump tries to persuade Volodymyr Zelenskiy to sign a peace deal the US came up with after talks with Moscow.

Investors bought into the prospect of US-led negotiations leading to an accord. Poland's zloty, the Hungarian forint and Czech koruna were among the world's best performing emerging-market currencies on Monday. But Ukraine's European allies were left scrambling to respond.

Washington's proposal not only included swathes of territory being given to Russia but limits on Ukraine's armed forces, too. The Trump administration has also recently revealed how it wants to use the frozen assets for joint investments with Russia as well as Ukraine's reconstruction.

The EU has been dragging its feet on the issue for a long time. Belgium, where most of the Russian funds are housed, has been worried about potential legal ramifications. But Ukraine's money supply is set to run dry in the coming months, and Europe's more nationalist political landscape makes it harder for governments to promise cash when taxpayers are feeling squeezed.

One piece of good news was that the International Monetary Fund agreed a new $8.2 billion financing program with Ukraine. It's contingent, though, on getting "assurance from donors" before it get full approval.

Meanwhile, a phone call last month between US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff and a senior Kremlin official offered direct insight into the recent tactics for negotiating with Russia, according to a Bloomberg exclusive. Witkoff is due in Moscow next week. Freeing up money for Ukraine might help strengthen Europe's hand when figuring out how to respond next.

Hungary: Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his top diplomat have been on a whirlwind tour with an eye to snapping up sanctioned Russian-owned refineries. Energy company Mol is in talks with Serbia about the country's sole refiner, NIS, which is controlled by Russia's Gazprom.

Romania: The government will set up a mechanism to place companies at risk of being hit by international sanctions under special oversight, such as the local unit of Russian state-owned Lukoil.

Poland: The country plans to start 2026 with a flurry of foreign-currency bond sales, expecting sufficient investor interest to fund the sovereign's growing borrowing needs, according to the Finance Ministry's public debt chief.

Slovenia: The regulator blocked an attempt by a government agency in neighboring Croatia to take over the Ljubljana Stock Exchange, citing a failure to meet "legal criteria."

Czech Republic: The three parties preparing to form the next government rejected the outgoing administration's draft budget for next year, saying the plan lacked financing for key spending areas.

Once overlooked, the Slovak capital has undergone a huge transformation in recent years, turning into a place with one of the highest GDPs per capita in the region. Its skyline has also reflected that change, Daniel Hornak reports for Bloomberg CityLab, thanks to more than $3 billion flowing into development projects. One area of the city center is now home to two-dozen new buildings, crowned by the first skyscraper over 150 meters.

"This time it's real," says Andreja Mladenovic. It's been joked about for years as something never going to happen, but the man ultimately in charge of building Belgrade's metro reckons the time has finally come for Europe's biggest capital city without a subway to get one. City officials say there are binding contracts signed with Chinese and French construction companies and bankers. The aim is for the first, €4.4 billion line to open in 2030 — almost a century since the city first tried to get an underground railway.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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James Whitman

Political

US President Donald Trump said Thursday that operations to curb Venezuelan drug trafficking "by land" would begin "very soon."

The warning comes amid escalating tensions with Caracas and with the military stepping up its activity in the Caribbean as part of what Washington says are efforts to stop transnational crime and drug smuggling.

Venezuela, however, says the military buildup and the US anti-narcotics campaign is really a covert effort to remove leftist leader Nicolas Maduro.

Washington views Maduro as an illegitimate ruler and accuses him of drug trafficking — allegations the Venezuelan president rejects.

Maduro's re-election last year was rejected by the international community as fraudulentImage: Cristian Hernandez/AP Photo/picture alliance

What did Trump say about Venezuela?

In a video call to US service members from his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida to mark Thanksgiving, Trump said the military campaign had meant there "aren't too many [Venezuelan drug traffickers] coming in by sea anymore."

"We've almost stopped — it's about 85% stopped by sea," Trump said.

"And we'll be starting to stop them by land also. The land is easier, but that's going to start very soon," he added.

Several of the military units Trump spoke with are directly involved in the anti-drug initiative, known as "Southern Spear."

What do we know about the US anti-narcotics operations?

The US has struck a number of boats in international waters in the Caribbean and the Pacific it says were smuggling illegal narcotics into the country. It has not provided evidence to support the claims.

At least 83 people have been killed in those strikes, according to a count of publicly available figures by the AFP news agency.

The assembled US military firepower, which includes an aircraft carrier strike group, far outweighs anything needed for anti-drug smuggling operations.

Source: DW

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Winkelmann

Bond

Economic

Indian government bonds are set to open flat to marginally lower on Friday, continuing from the previous session's moves as traders brace for fresh debt supply via weekly auction, which would be followed by the nation's economic growth data.

The benchmark 10-year yield (IN063335G=CC) is likely to hover between 6.50% and 6.52% till the debt auction, according to a trader at a private bank. It ended at 6.5082% on Thursday, which was its first rise in the last four sessions. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

New Delhi will sell bonds worth 320 billion rupees ($3.58 billion) later in the day, including a seven-year paper. At its previous auction on October 31, the central bank had rejected all bids for this note due to weak demand.

"The auction should go through today, as sentiment is tilted towards the bulls on hopes of a dovish monetary policy next week," the trader said.

"Still, 6.48% should act as a strong bottom for now."

India's July-September growth data is due at 4:00 p.m. IST. The economy likely grew 7.3% year-on-year during the period, according to a Reuters poll, after expanding 7.8% in April-June.

The Reserve Bank of India will likely cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% in its December 5 meeting, according to a majority of economists polled by Reuters, who also expect the rate to stay there through 2026.

Bond yields eased after RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said that there is scope to cut policy rates further, and the latest macroeconomic data has not indicated any reduction in the room for policy easing.