Ether (ETH) is trying to maintain its position above the $2,600 resistance level following a 15.1% gain between Sept. 18 and Sept. 23. Recent macroeconomic data indicating a weakening economy has fueled a rally in the stock market, increasing demand for short-term government bonds. In this context, traders are betting that the upcoming $2.78 billion monthly Ether options expiry on Sept. 27 could solidify the current bullish momentum.

Why Ether price is improving

The surge in Ether’s price has been primarily driven by a cut in US Federal Reserve interest rates, signaling a shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy. As a result, the S&P 500 index hit an all-time high on Sept. 24. Further bolstering this outlook, a drop in the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI on Sept. 23 heightened investor concerns about the health of the economy.

Yields on the US 2-year Treasury bond fell to their lowest level in 24 months, as investors sought the relative safety of government-backed assets. The market's current fear of an impending recession has benefitted cryptocurrencies like Ether, which investors view as scarce assets.

However, from a broader perspective, Ether is down 33% over the last four months. This decline follows the highly anticipated US launch of a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF), which ultimately disappointed, resulting in $684 million in outflows, according to data from Farside Investors.

The $2.77 billion in open interest for options includes $1.82 billion in call (buy) options and $0.95 billion in put (sell) options. While the bulls appear to have the upper hand, with $1.47 billion of call options targeting prices of $2,700 or higher, those positions will expire worthless if Ether remains below that level by Sept. 27. Consequently, even with the smaller number of put options, bears still have an opportunity to shift the balance in their favor.

As Ether’s price gains momentum, so too has the demand for its smart contract processing capabilities. The number of transactions on the Ethereum network rose by 15% in the seven days leading up to Sept. 24, pushing the average transaction fee to over $4.50, up from $1.45 just ten days earlier.

Additionally, increased Ether issuance has contributed to the asset’s struggle to reclaim the $3,000 level. According to data from Ultrasound Money, a total of 58,856.4 ETH has been added to the supply over the past 30 days, representing a 0.6% annualized inflation rate. These factors have led to concerns among investors that Ether's upside potential may be constrained, especially with competition from platforms like Solana and BNB Chain, both of which offer transaction costs that are more than 20 times lower.

Bears are well positioned for the $2.8 billion monthly options expiry

In this environment, traders believe that Ether bulls must prevail in the upcoming options expiry to stand a chance of pushing the price back toward the $3,000 mark.

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on current Ether price trends, with the potential impact of call and put options for the Sept. 27 expiration. These estimates assume that put options represent bearish positions, while call options align with neutral-to-bullish strategies. However, it is important to note that this is a simplification and does not account for more complex investment approaches.

Between $2,400 and $2,500: The outcome would favor put (sell) options by $225 million.

Between $2,500 and $2,600: The result would favor put options by $100 million.

Between $2,600 and $2,700: The balance shifts, with call (buy) options gaining an advantage of about $70 million.

Between $2,700 and $2,800: The scenario favors call options, with a net result of $220 million in their favor.

In essence, Ether bulls’ best chance to secure a meaningful advantage is by pushing the price above $2,700 on Sept. 27. However, the path for put options to lock in a $100 million advantage appears clearer, as the current $2,600 support level continues to be tested.

Source: COINTELEGRAPH

BOJ July Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Malaysia is now more selective in choosing foreign direct investment, with a focus on projects that would greatly benefit the country, especially in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) and data technology, said Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

He said the opening of a data centre that used to depend on cheap energy and water to move and cool the operating system is now no longer sufficient.

"Now, if you want to [establish] a data centre, you must have AI,” he said, referring to projects like Nvidia's in Johor, “which is an example of how technology needs to be improved to remain relevant," he said at the Ilmuan Malaysia Madani Forum here on Wednesday organised by Tenaga Nasional Bhd .

Anwar said universities in this country should also be empowered to produce a skilled workforce in the field of AI and engineering in order to meet the needs of high-tech investors.

"If the investment is big...we are now more selective in choosing the ones that can benefit the country more," he explained.

Meanwhile, touching on Budget 2025 to be tabled in Parliament on Oct 18, Anwar outlined education and health as the main priorities, with the highest allocation given to the education sector, followed by health.

Source: Theedgemarkets

The government needs to take practical measures, including targeted diesel subsidies despite receiving criticisms, said Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

He said targeted diesel subsidies had successfully increased investor confidence, stock market stability, and strengthened the implementation of the country's Fiscal Responsibility Act.

"This step has had a positive impact on the market. After we implemented targeted diesel subsidies, the price of diesel dropped by 40 sen. This gives confidence to investors, and shows our commitment to stronger economic reforms," ​​he said at the Ilmuan Malaysia Madani Forum here on Wednesday.

Anwar explained that the implementation of subsidies that are not properly targeted would burden the country's finances, especially when the subsidies are also enjoyed by the rich, who should be able to cover the higher costs. "Rich people who can afford to pay RM100,000 for their child's education in a private university but cannot afford to pay RM10,000 in a public university — that is something we need to change. It's the same in government hospitals, where they (rich people) enjoy first-class facilities with minimal fees," he said.

He also compared the situation to the failure of the National Health Service in the UK, where massive subsidies to all levels of society eventually became unsustainable.

"Malaysia has the lowest tax base in Asia, and this becomes a big challenge when the government has to make practical decisions in implementing reforms, including subsidies," he added.

Source: Theedgemarkets