German Labour Market Improves In November

Forex

Economic

Summary:

German unemployment dropped by 25,700, bringing the unemployment figure to 2.885 million, a surprisingly positive outcome.

German Labour Market Improves In November_1

German unemployment dropped by 25,700, bringing the unemployment figure to 2.885 million, a surprisingly positive outcome. According to the just-released data, seasonally adjusted unemployment increased by 1,000, keeping the unemployment rate unchanged at 6.3%.

Today's labour market numbers will bring some relief, at least in the political debate. The feared worsening of the labour market that emerged after the number of unemployed reached the symbolic three-million mark in August has so far been avoided. That said, since reaching a low of 2.2 million in May 2022, the number of unemployed has steadily increased. It's not up by some half a million compared with then.

This trajectory reflects textbook economics: with the economy effectively stagnating for over five years and industry facing severe structural challenges, a worsening of the labour market was just a matter of time.

Improvements, yes, but far from a turning point

Looking ahead, recruitment plans in both manufacturing and services have continued to weaken, and the number of vacancies is down to levels last seen during the pandemic. Still, other indicators like social media vacancies and hiring indicators at least point to some bottoming out. At the same time, ongoing announcements of potential cost-cutting measures across the automotive and other industries, along with the continuing increase in some bankruptcies, suggest that things could get worse before they get better.

With the worsening labour market, political uncertainty about the future of Germany's pension system, and a broader sense of sombreness in the economy, it is no surprise that private consumption has worsened again. After a brief indulgence at the turn of last year, German consumers have again closed their wallets. This morning's news that retail sales dropped by 0.3% month-on-month in October just strengthens this point. Even more so, as real wages were still up by almost 3% on the year in the third quarter, and the savings rate has almost come down to pre-pandemic levels - a statistical conundrum.

Overall, despite today's favourable news from the labour market, a turning point is clearly not in sight. Instead, the very gradual worsening of the German labour market is likely to continue, clearly complicating any comeback of private consumption.

Source: ING

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Justin

Political

Economic

Orban has kept friendly ties with Putin despite the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine [File photo: July 2024]

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said he will travel to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Orban, a right-wing populist and close ally of US President Donald Trump, has frequently blocked efforts to impose more sanctions on Russia, as the Russian military continues its yearslong invasion of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll is expected in Kyiv this week, as the Trump administration pushes for an end to the war in Ukraine.

Here's a look at the latest in Russia's war on Ukraine for Thursday, November 28:

Orban to meet Putin in Moscow

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is heading to Moscow for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on crude oil and gas supplies for Hungary. Orban said he also intended to address peace efforts in Ukraine.

Orban remains Putin's closest ally in the 27-member European Union despite the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly four years ago. Hungary is reliant on Russian energy. Despite EU efforts to cut dependence, nearly 19% of the bloc's gas imports came from Russia in 2025.

"Energy security and affordable, low energy prices in the winter in Hungary," he wrote in a Facebook post. "That's why we went to Washington, and that's why I'm going to Moscow now."

Asked if peace efforts in Ukraine would also come up, Orban said, "We can hardly avoid that."

Orban has previously said he wants to revive plans for a"peace summit" in Budapest between US President Donald Trump and Putin on Ukraine, which was shelved this year as fighting continued.

In contrast to most NATO and European Union leaders, Orban has kept up cordial relations with Russia while questioning the logic of Western military aid for Kyiv.

Hungary has imported 8.5 million tons of crude oil and more than 7 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia this year, its Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Friday.

Source: DW

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Winkelmann

Forex

Economic

In focus today

In the euro area, the inflation flash estimates are released for Germany, France, Italy, and Spain which together will reveal almost entirely how inflation in the euro area fared ahead of the aggregate data next week. We expect headline inflation remained at 2.1% y/y in November and core inflation remained at 2.4% y/y as in October.

In Sweden, the Q3 GDP statistics are announced. Preliminary estimates indicate growth of 1.1% q/q (2.4% y/y) and although the GDP indicator is highly unreliable and prone to revisions, broader activity data supports the notion of a tentative recovery. Private consumption increased in September and appeared to be the main driver of Q3 growth, which we expect to print at 0.9% and 1.7% y/y.

In Norway, we expect the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate to be unchanged at 2.2% in November, but the number of unemployed to increase, signalling a gradually weaker labour market. We also keep an eye on new vacancies, as they can act as an indicator of labour demand. We expect retail sales grew 0.5% m/m in October after a couple of weak months. High real wage growth, lower mortgage rates and still low unemployment should support private consumption going forward, and we see some upside risk to our estimate.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In Japan, Tokyo November CPI released at 2.8% y/y (cons: 2.7%) and CPI excl. fresh food and fuel remained at 2.8%. October retail sales surpassed expectations at 1.7% y/y (cons: 0.8%) and marked the strongest uptick in four months. The largest increase in sales was seen in machinery and equipment (8%), pharmaceuticals and cosmetics (5.1%) and automobiles (4.8%). Additionally, the unemployment rate held steady at 2.6% in October and it appears the economy is weathering the impact of higher US tariffs. Markets are now pricing in slightly more than a 50% chance of an interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan at the December meeting.

What happened yesterday

In the euro area, the ECB minutes from the October meeting did not reveal much new information and the wording was very balanced. The ECB GC members are clearly in no rush to change policy rates and continue to see "a high option value in waiting for additional data." Most members saw inflation risks as two-sided and balanced.

On the data side, credit growth for October released above expectations with adjusted loans to non-financial corporations increasing by 2.9% y/y. Loan growth to households increased to 2.8% y/y from 2.6% in September. The readings were above expectations of a slowing momentum which we expected would result in a smaller reading.

In Denmark, retail sales for October surprised to the upside, with a reading of 0.9% m/m and 4.9% y/y in October, marking the highest monthly gain since February 2024. The main driver can be found in other consumer goods, which increased by 8.6%, up from 7.6% in September, and food and other groceries which were up 0.9% vs -2.0% in September.

In Sweden, the NIER survey showed overall sentiment improving to 101.7 in November from 100.9 in October. Consumer confidence disappointed and declined following six months of positive gains. The decline appears to be driven by a slightly more negative view of the domestic economy.

The Swedish National Debt Office (NDO) presented an updated forecast and borrowing plan. The borrowing requirement for 2026 was revised up by SEK 89bn, bringing the total deficit- or net borrowing requirement to SEK 173bn. The NDO stated that the increase "is mainly due to expansionary fiscal policy".

Equities: Thursday was a quiet day in markets, as US was closed for Thanksgiving. European equities edged slightly higher, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.1% and the MSCI Nordics up 0.4%. As Nordics have lagged in the recent rebound, it would make sense if Nordics outperformed on the coming trading days. Beneath the surface, the tone was risk-on, with global cyclicals and small caps outperforming. It is unclear if this continues today, as futures markets are closed this morning due to technical issues. However, Asian markets are little changed, which gives a hint of another slow trading day today. US markets will reopen today, but only for a half-day session.

FI and FX: Small to no moves in the rates and equity space as US is closed for Thanksgiving. US10y flat at 4%, equity futures in green. Scandi FX traded modestly higher yesterday. EUR/SEK is just below 11.00 ahead of month-end, which we estimate could generate a small need to sell SEK for rebalancing purposes. Focus on today's Swedish GDP data, a well. EUR/NOK trades around 11.88 going into the Norwegian data releases this morning.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

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ING

Forex

Political

Economic

USD: Staying on tight ranges

Dollar crosses have traded in tight ranges as the Thanksgiving holiday dried up flows. Volatility shouldn't pick up materially today, even though the dollar remains vulnerable to a convergence lower towards short-term swap rates.

Our short-term fair value model continues to display some short-term dollar overvaluation against most of the G10, and risks remain skewed towards a return to the 99.0 50-day moving average in DXY.

Geopolitical news remains closely monitored, even though the impact on FX has been contained so far. President Putin said yesterday that the draft discussed in Geneva could form the basis of a future deal with Ukraine, and US peace envoy Steve Witkoff is confirmed to visit Moscow next week. We could see some build-up in expectations of a breakthrough in negotiations ahead of that Witkoff trip.

While there is considerable caution in markets about the prospects of a peace deal, any material progress from here should weigh on the dollar and support high-beta European currencies.

EUR: Inflation numbers shouldn't be a game changers

France, Spain, Italy and Germany publish their flash CPI estimates for November today. We doubt the inflation picture is set to change dramatically in the near term, and our call on the ECB remains unchanged and in line with pricing: no changes for the whole of 2026.

However, yesterday's ECB minutes confirmed that any shift would – if anything – be on the dovish side. Evidence of persistent inflation undershooting in the forecasting horizon could prompt a more vocal reaction by the ECB doves, and put another cut back on the table.

Our call remains bullish on EUR/USD into year-end, but until some US data is published, or the Fed delivers a cut in December, it's mostly up to positive developments on the Ukraine peace deal that can drive the euro sustainably higher.

CEE: Market watches Hungary's rating reviews after fiscal target revision

In Hungary, PPI figures will be published, which will show month-on-month declines this year, dragging down the year-on-year figures. More interesting will be the rating review after the end of trading today. Moody's has a negative outlook on Hungary's rating (Baa2) from November 2024. Moody's expects a 4.6% GDP deficit for this year and 5.1% for next year. Therefore, the government's recent revision to 5% in both cases does not change the picture much, and a downgrade is less likely, but the market will certainly watch this move. More interesting may be Fitch's rating review next week on Friday, where the outlook is still "Stable" and the agency forecasts a 4.5% and 4.0% deficit.

In the Czech Republic, detailed GDP figures for the third quarter will be published today. The earlier flash estimate, at 0.7% quarterly and 2.7% annually, surprised both the market and the CNB to the upside. The Statistical Office should confirm these figures and show household consumption and investment as the main drivers of growth. However, there is some risk of a downward revision in our opinion due to the weaker monthly figures.

PLN: The market is waiting for a signal that is pricing in too many rate cuts

November inflation should show a further decline in headline inflation from 2.8% to 2.5% in our forecast, one-tenth below market expectations. Core inflation should also fall slightly from 3.0% to 2.9% YoY. This should pave the way for another rate cut by the National Bank of Poland next week. However, we believe that the market in the current conditions may be more sensitive to potential surprises than usual. The last two weeks have seen the market move rates down, outperforming CEE peers, triggering some stop-losses due to paid positioning in the PLN market. The market has thus quickly moved to price in a terminal rate of 3.50%, which is in line with our forecast but above market consensus.

If the inflation print surprises upwards, we could see new payers in rates as the view is that more rate cuts cannot be priced in and potentially higher inflation in the future. On the other hand, weaker inflation would simply confirm the current dovish trend. The market is therefore asymmetric, in our opinion, towards higher rates and potentially support for FX. Therefore, PLN has a good chance of further gains, especially if we see some progress in peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. The 4.230 levels are the bottom of the current range, but we have already seen testing lower levels in previous days and especially an upside surprise in inflation would be key to breaking lower.

Source: ING

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Gerik

Economic

A New Escalation in U.S. Immigration Policy

President Donald Trump has amplified his hardline immigration stance through late‑night statements outlining an agenda that seeks to sharply restrict migration, revoke benefits for non‑citizens and reexamine immigration pathways established under prior administrations. His rhetoric marks a significant escalation in the administration’s ongoing effort to reshape the U.S. immigration system, reflecting a continued attempt to frame migration as a national security threat rather than an economic or humanitarian issue.

In his Truth Social posts, Trump advocated “reverse migration,” a term he used to describe a reduction of both unauthorized and legally admitted individuals. The president claimed he would terminate “millions” of admissions made under the Biden administration, denaturalize migrants deemed harmful to “domestic tranquility,” and halt all federal benefits for non‑citizens. He also proposed a “permanent pause” on immigration from what he termed “Third World Countries,” though the term lacks a precise definition and carries historical and political stigma.

These declarations create a causal link in Trump’s messaging between the presence of migrants and perceived threats to national stability, though no specific mechanisms or legal frameworks were detailed. The absence of procedural clarity suggests the proposals are more political signaling than imminent policy, especially given Congress’s long‑standing gridlock on immigration legislation and previous court rulings that limited Trump-era executive orders.

A Violent Incident Accelerates Policy Messaging

The statements came on the heels of an attack on two National Guard members in Washington by an Afghan national, an event that Trump used to reinforce his administration’s previous decisions to tighten immigration vetting. The president announced the death of 20‑year‑old Specialist Sarah Beckstrom and linked the incident to broader security concerns, seeking to establish a causal narrative between crime and immigration.

In the immediate aftermath, the White House suspended reviews of Afghan immigration cases and ordered reexamination of individuals already residing in the U.S. This reflects a rapid policy reaction aligned with the administration’s pattern of using high‑profile incidents to justify enforcement measures.

Policy Infrastructure Already in Motion

Even before Trump’s latest declarations, the administration had begun implementing extensive checks on migrants. A memo reviewed earlier in the month revealed plans to reassess all refugees admitted under Biden and freeze their green card applications. Joseph Edlow, head of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, confirmed a “full scale, rigorous reexamination” of green cards issued to individuals from “countries of concern.”

Existing restrictions already prohibit immigration from 12 countries, including Afghanistan, Haiti, Somalia, and Sudan, with additional limits applied to seven more. These moves parallel Trump’s previous term, when travel bans targeted countries such as Iran, Libya, North Korea, Somalia, Syria, Venezuela, and Yemen. The continuity illustrates a consistent policy logic: using national security framing to justify categorical entry restrictions.

Legal and Constitutional Challenges Ahead

While Trump continues to push for aggressive enforcement, his administration remains constrained by judicial oversight. Upon returning to office, he signed an executive order halting all refugee admissions a directive that courts immediately challenged. Although an appeals court allowed a pause in new entries, it compelled the government to continue providing services to refugees already admitted.

Efforts to revoke temporary protected status, impose a sharply increased $100,000 fee for H‑1B visas, and challenge the constitutional right to birthright citizenship likewise reveal a strategy that tests the boundaries of presidential authority. These initiatives demonstrate correlation rather than direct causation between policy ambition and actual legal outcomes, as many measures remain entangled in ongoing litigation.

Afghan Migration and the Legacy of U.S. Involvement

A major point of contention involves the more than 190,000 Afghans admitted to the U.S. following the Taliban’s 2021 takeover. Many assisted American forces during the war, and their presence highlights the ethical obligations embedded in U.S. foreign policy. Trump’s renewed scrutiny of their cases illustrates the tension between national security claims and historical alliances, raising questions about how commitments to wartime partners intersect with domestic political priorities.

Trump’s push for “reverse migration” underscores an increasingly maximalist immigration agenda intended to dramatically reshape demographic and legal structures in the United States. While the rhetoric captures heightened political emotion, implementation remains uncertain due to constitutional constraints, legislative deadlock, and the legal protections afforded to many migrants. The coming months will clarify whether these statements foreshadow enforceable policy or function primarily as strategic communication aimed at consolidating political support in a deeply polarized landscape.

Source: AP

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Gerik

Economic

Stocks

Muted Activity Amid U.S. Holiday Closure

With Wall Street closed for Thanksgiving, Asian trading was subdued on Friday, characterized by light volume and localized economic signals. While some benchmarks edged higher, the region offered no clear direction, reflecting investor uncertainty as global markets await signals from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting.

Despite recent optimism fueled by artificial intelligence developments and softening inflation data in the U.S., traders appear to be reassessing the durability of the rally. The pause follows a four-day winning streak for major U.S. indexes, including a 0.8% gain for the Nasdaq and 0.7% rises in both the Dow and S&P 500 on Wednesday.

Tokyo Inflation Holds, Reinforcing Rate Shift Expectations

Japan’s Nikkei 225 finished flat at 50,172.60, with notable weakness in AI-related shares such as Kioxia Holdings, Fujikura, and Lasertec. These losses highlight a reversal in speculative interest around AI, which had previously boosted valuations. Meanwhile, Tokyo’s core inflation for November remained at 2.8% year-on-year above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for a second straight month. This persistent inflation reinforces a potential policy shift, though a rate hike at the December BOJ meeting is still viewed as unlikely. The inflation trend, while stable, suggests a long-term causal relationship with rising rate expectations, which may gradually pressure equity valuations.

South Korea’s Kospi dropped 1.4% to 3,930.95, dragged lower by a 26.5% month-on-month collapse in semiconductor production in October. The fall in chip output contributed to a broader 4% decline in industrial production, more severe than September’s 1.1% drop. Major tech names like LG Energy Solutions, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics led the slide. The data reinforces a direct causative link between weakening production activity and market underperformance in tech-heavy indices.

China and Hong Kong Diverge Slightly

In Greater China, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 0.2% to 25,896.33, weighed by property and tech names. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite inched up 0.2% to 3,883.46, supported by marginal buying in domestic-focused sectors. The divergence between the two markets reflects differing investor perceptions: while Hong Kong’s globally exposed firms face foreign capital outflows and regulatory risk, Shanghai’s relative insulation offers modest resilience.

Australia’s ASX 200 fell 0.1% to 8,608.90, as resource-related sectors failed to offset broader weakness. In contrast, Taiwan’s Taiex rose 0.9%, benefiting from renewed interest in electronics exports. India’s Sensex added 0.1%, supported by stable domestic conditions ahead of upcoming GDP data releases.

Currency and Commodity Moves Provide Little Direction

In currency markets, the U.S. dollar rose slightly against the Japanese yen to 156.34, while the euro edged lower to $1.1584. Oil prices nudged higher, with Brent crude gaining 21 cents to $63.08 per barrel and U.S. crude adding 43 cents to $59.08. The modest uptick in crude reflects both technical correction and tentative geopolitical calm as oil markets await the weekend’s OPEC+ meeting.

Friday’s session reflects a moment of hesitation in global equity markets. With no definitive macro signal and Wall Street on pause, Asian markets responded primarily to local data and sector-specific weakness, especially in tech. Inflation readings in Japan and industrial output in Korea reveal potential structural strains, while broader expectations of a dovish Fed continue to support longer-term risk appetite. As trading volume normalizes next week, the sustainability of this optimism will likely face fresh tests from central bank policy signals, earnings forecasts, and geopolitical developments.

Source: AP

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Oil Suffers Longest Decline Since 2023 as Market Sentiment Weakens

Crude markets are bracing for their worst monthly performance in over two years. Brent crude is hovering just above $63 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) remains near $59, both benchmarks reflecting a fourth consecutive monthly drop in November. The last time oil suffered such a prolonged downturn was in the first half of 2023, indicating a significant divergence from the typical seasonal strength expected in the final quarter of the year.

The primary driver behind this sustained weakness is the growing imbalance between supply and demand. Analysts at JPMorgan estimate a surplus of 2.8 million barrels per day in 2026 and 2.7 million in 2027, fueled by both OPEC+ members restoring capacity and increased output from non-OPEC nations. This forecasted oversupply represents a clear causal factor in declining prices, as excess inventory weighs heavily on near-term market expectations.

OPEC+ Meeting Looms with Limited Surprise Potential

As OPEC+ prepares for a virtual meeting on Sunday, market participants are expecting the alliance to maintain its decision to pause output increases into early 2026. With this consensus already priced in, attention may shift toward long-term discussions on capacity reviews among member states.

Unless the meeting delivers unexpected production cuts, its impact on prices could be muted. The correlation between OPEC+ policy stability and sustained price stagnation is evident, as repeated announcements without aggressive action fail to counteract the bearish supply outlook.

Trading Disrupted as CME Glitch Freezes Futures Activity

In a rare technical disruption, trading of WTI crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) was halted Friday morning in Asia due to a system glitch reported by the CME Group. While the freeze had no lasting price impact, it briefly obscured real-time market response and highlighted the fragility of digital infrastructure in highly reactive commodity markets.

The pause in trading reflects a correlation not a causal effect on prices, but nonetheless illustrates the sensitivity of the oil market to information flow disruptions, particularly during pivotal geopolitical or policy moments.

Geopolitical Winds Shift: Peace Talk Signals from Moscow

A potentially game-changing geopolitical variable re-entered the oil market equation this week. Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled openness to U.S.-led peace negotiations concerning Ukraine, noting that former President Trump’s proposals could serve as a foundation. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is scheduled to visit Moscow, raising the possibility of early-stage diplomatic momentum.

If realized, a de-escalation in the Ukraine conflict could trigger a relaxation of Western sanctions on Russian oil flows. This outcome would introduce significant downward pressure on global prices by enabling restricted volumes to re-enter markets, particularly in Asia. However, Mukesh Sahdev of XAnalysts warns that Russia may stockpile crude initially to manage price impact, creating a brief bullish blip before longer-term bearish effects materialize.

Russian Oil Storage Surges Amid Sanctions Stress

In a sign of mounting logistical strain under sanctions, Russia’s oil field storage levels have risen above 16 million barrels a level observed only twice since the invasion of Ukraine began in 2022. This increase points to production outpacing exports, which may stem from both logistical bottlenecks and reduced access to shipping and insurance services.

The buildup is a direct consequence of sanctions, representing a cause-effect dynamic that could distort supply flows and complicate price forecasts in the months ahead.

Oil’s weak performance in November is the result of a confluence of structural oversupply, muted OPEC+ policy intervention, and tentative diplomatic developments. While the technical glitch at CME underscores the market’s volatility, the broader trajectory is shaped by fundamentals and geopolitics. Whether December brings relief or further declines will depend largely on whether OPEC+ shifts strategy, sanctions on Russian oil ease, and demand surprises emerge. For now, the market remains in a fragile equilibrium, with bearish pressure holding firm.