A quiet day on the data front, with only US Philadelphia manufacturing index and weekly jobless claims due for release.

Fed chair Powell will discuss economic outlook at the Economic Club of New York this evening at 18:00 CET. With the FOMC's blackout period starting on Saturday, this will be a key opportunity to guide the market ahead of the November meeting. That said, market is already well priced for the Fed to remain on hold while keeping the door open for a final hike in December or January.

Other Fed speakers on the wires today include Jefferson, Goolsbee, Barr and Bostic.

People's Bank of China will likely maintain Loan Prime Rates unchanged overnight in line with the unchanged medium-term lending facility rate earlier this week.

Israel-Gaza conflict: Joe Biden visited Israel yesterday, with one key focus area being ensuring humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza. Biden also discussed the issue in a phone call with Egyptian president Abdel Fattah El-Sisi who agreed to allow around 20 trucks of daily aid into Gaza via the Rafah crossing, which is the sole non-Israeli entry and exit point to the area. Earlier this week, Biden administration was reported to be preparing a USD100bn supplemental funding package to cover aid to both Israel and Ukraine as well as several domestic US issues. However, while such package would likely pass the democratic-controlled Senate, the House of Representatives is still unable to vote on any new bills, as it has not been able to elect a new speaker after ousting Kevin McCarthy. The current nominee Jim Jordan was rejected for the second time in a vote last night. And even if a new speaker was found, it remains unclear if especially the more hardliner republicans (who Jordan represents) would support a package linking Israel support to additional funding for Ukraine, even if the former has fairly broad-based support across Congress.

Fedspeak: Overall, market sentiment remained sour yesterday, with equity markets falling, 10y UST yield soon approaching 5% and broad USD strengthening. The most recent Fed speakers, including Waller and Harker yesterday, have communicated that the Fed has room to continue monitoring effects of past tightening by extending the September pause into November. But markets still price in an additional 14bp of tightening for the December and January meetings. NY Fed's Williams commented that he is ‘not convinced yet neutral rate has risen' which would suggest that monetary policy is already clearly restrictive. One area where the impact is very visible is the housing market, as the MBS index of new mortgage applications for purchase has declined to the lowest level since 1995 amid 30y mortgage rate hitting 8% yesterday. That said, most of the September hard macro data still managed to surprise to the upside, which we discussed yesterday in our latest US Labour Market Monitor, 18 October.

Equities: Risk-off resurfaced on Wednesday. S&P -1.3%, Stoxx 600 -1.1% and small cap Russell 2000 a full -2.1% lower, taking the indices lower for the week. The negative trigger was yields, rising to a new year-high. It was not a growth-to-value rotation though but a cyclical sell-off. Materials (also driven by weak Chinese housing data) sold off with Boliden and SSAB down 4-6%. Note that the sell-off came despite unchanged industrial metal prices. Industrials and consumer discretionary also underperforming, losing -2-3%. US futures are continuing lower this morning.

FI: The upward surprise in UK inflation data drove GILT yields markedly higher yesterday with contagion effects on global bond markets. The 10Y GILT yield ended the day 15bp higher, while the 10Y Bund yield rose 4bp. Curves bear steepened across markets. BTP-Bund spreads widened ahead of S&P reviewing Italy on Friday, probably partly reflecting some uncertainty on how the Meloni government's proposal of fiscal easing worth an estimated EUR24bn next year could affect the credit assessment.

FX: Higher US yields, eroding risk appetite and rebalancing needs hit smaller currencies such the SEK and NOK. EUR/SEK and EUR/NOK escaped the recent range on the topside while both USD/SEK and USD/NOK moved back above 11.00. EUR/USD was relatively stable yet with a slight favour of the USD leg. USD/JPY still has its eyes on 150. EUR/GBP fell after the high inflation numbers, GBP gains proved transitory. CHF benefits from its safe-haven status as EUR/CHF pushes toward ATLs.

Credit: Yesterday, the negative sentiment in equity markets drove credit spreads wider, iTraxx Xover was 10.2bp wider at 455.2bp while iTraxx Main was 2.2bp wider at 85.7bp. That said, the primary credit market was active but the amount of deal activity was observed as limited. In the Nordic space, H&M printed a EUR500m 8Y green bond at MS+150bs. The books were above EUR3bn and IPT was at MS+165-170bp, these conditions indicate healthy investor appetite for selected names despite an increase in volatility, higher rates and lower indices.

Dominating global financial markets is the push in US 10-year Treasury yields very close to 5.00%. Arguably, the move could be a delayed reaction to some very strong US retail sales data earlier in the week. We note the incredible re-pricing in the two to three-year sector of the USD swaps curve. Investors now struggle to see 1m USD OIS swaps trading below 4.75% over the cycle.

However, the move in US Treasury yields does not wholly look like a function of a re-pricing of the medium-term Fed cycle. We note the US 10-year Treasury-OIS swap spread moving out to the widest levels in a couple of years near 40bp. This looks to embed some fiscal risk premium into Treasuries – perhaps not a surprise given rating agencies fears over an 'erosion of governance' and the startling developments in the US House of Representatives. Additionally, we note the continuous unwinding of US Treasury holdings by Chinese investors, whose holdings dropped by another $16 billion in August. China's holdings of US Treasuries have dropped by $235 billion since the start of 2022. At some point, there is a risk that the US Treasury yield to dollar correlation briefly flips from positive to negative. We are probably not there yet, however.

We are focusing on equities today not only because they are under pressure globally, but last night's release of the Fed's Beige Book warned:

Sales prices increased at a slower rate than input prices, as businesses struggled to pass along cost pressures because consumers had grown more sensitive to prices. As a result, firms struggled to maintain desired profit margins.

This pressure on profit margins plus the rise in the risk-free rate of 10-year Treasury yields warn that equities will come lower. The S&P 500 rally has recently stalled at an upside gap near 4400 and the index looks primed for a retest of the 4216 low seen at the start of the month.

FX correlations with the S&P 500 suggest the dollar will hold gains in a sell-off, largely at the expense of the commodity and activity currencies. GBP/USD actually has one of the highest positive correlations with the S&P 500. Even though we think the Australian dollar is exceptionally undervalued from a medium-term macro basis, it could prove a high-beta victim to an equity sell-off. Here, we see a cross rate like AUD/JPY coming substantially lower if equities do finally drop.

A risk-off tone should keep DXY bid towards the top of its 106-107 range. In terms of today's calendars, look out for a host of Federal Reserve speakers, with Fed Chair Jay Powell's as the main event at 6:00 pm CET. Also, see how the dollar fares with the release of the weekly jobless claims at 2:30 pm CET, which so far have shown no signs of any lay-offs.

We would have thought EUR/USD would be trading a little lower given what has been happening to US yields this week. While there may be a tendency to conclude that long dollars is a very crowded trade and this week's EUR/USD price action is telling, we think the defensive global environment makes it hard to own the pro-cyclical euro. The eurozone data calendar is exceptionally light today and barring some surge in US jobless claims or some surprisingly dovish Fedspeak, we would expect EUR/USD to be pressuring support at 1.0500. We would be careful, however, if we are under-estimating the risk of indiscriminate down-sizing of open (long dollar) positions and would warn of a sharper correction higher should EUR/USD trade above 1.0600/0610 again.

Elsewhere, Hungary's Minister for EU Funds will meet representatives of the European Commission in Brussels to discuss locked EU funds today. According to previous information from the Hungarian side, all the problems should be resolved by the end of November. However, today we could hear more details about the situation. The timetable has not been set but we will probably see some headlines on this topic. For now, it seems that the negotiations are moving in a positive direction, which should have been confirmed today. At the same time, HUF rates moved up again yesterday, which should offset the downside risk for HUF we mentioned yesterday after the core rate touched new record highs. If the progress in negotiations is confirmed, we could see EUR/HUF test new local lows below 384.

Consensus assumes that the Japanese have not been selling FX in intervention to support the yen. Consensus has reached that conclusion since last year Japanese officials were quick to confirm their intervention during September-October 2020 when they sold about $70 billion. However, overnight Japanese Vice Finance Minister Masato Kanda has said that real-time confirmation of intervention can become noise and that it is more normal not to confirm intervention.

These comments leave the door marginally open to the fact that Japan may actually have sold FX earlier this month. We will know for sure when the Ministry of Finance releases intervention statistics on 31 October. While the confirmation of the intervention will certainly not turn this USD/JPY trend around, it might add confidence to trades which favour Japanese yen out-performance on the crosses. A lower AUD/JPY is our focus near term with a target of 92.

Quite apposite to the times is the well-worn phrase from a former US Treasury Secretary that the dollar is ‘our currency but your problem'. This has relevance today around most of the world, but particularly in Latin America, where the strong dollar looks to be interfering with local easing cycles. For example, Chile's central bank yesterday said that the ‘very important' depreciation of the peso recently (13% in three months) needs to be taken into consideration at next week's policy meeting. Two-year Chile swap rates jumped 17bp on the comments.

The current environment is a far cry from when Chile launched its easing cycle in July with a 100bp rate cut. The policy rate was taken down to 10.25%. At the time, investors read that as Latam firing the starting gun on deep easing cycles across the region. Since then, however, expectations of the policy rate in one to two years' time have backed up anywhere between 125bp in Brazil and 300bp in Chile. In short, the strong dollar and local currency weakness looks to be curtailing easing cycles.

Until we have much greater confidence that US Treasury yields are near a peak, the above trends look set to dominate over the coming months. We suspect that the Chilean peso looks the most vulnerable of the three, given that higher US rates probably stand to take the greatest toll on the commodity sector. We have a year-end forecast for USD/BRL at 5.25 and we think that the Mexican peso can outperform. Banxico's unwind of its FX forward book was heavily front-loaded into September and October. The perennially more hawkish Banxico looks most likely to keep implied yields high given its preference for stability in the Mexican peso.

Financial markets are once again immersed in a phase of risk aversion, a sentiment spurred by the notable ascent of benchmark treasury yields. US 10-year yield is confidently moving closer to the 5% mark. Even Japan's 10-year JGB yield is hitting another decade high. The prevalent mood has propelled safe-haven currencies like Swiss Franc, Yen, and Dollar to be the standout performers of the day. In contrast, Aussie, Kiwi, and Loonie trail behind. Euro and Sterling find themselves in an intermediate position, though the former shows slight dominance.

All eyes are now turned to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming policy address to the Economic Club of New York. Anticipation is rife, with markets eager to glean insights into the potential for a further rate hike in the closing months of the year. However, expectations are tempered, with Powell likely to opt for a balanced approach, letting other FOMC members lead the discussion. Nonetheless, he is expected to reiterate the "higher for longer" narrative and underscoring the importance of data in shaping future policy decisions. The bond and stock markets' reaction to his address could play a pivotal role in steering Dollar's course.

In another significant development, Chinese property giant Country Garden is under scrutiny. Bondholders have reportedly sought urgent discussions following the company's failure to make a USD 15m coupon payment. This misstep puts the developer on the brink of default, thereby exacerbating the risk-averse mood permeating Asian markets.

From a technical perspective, 10-year yield resumed recent up trend by breaking through 4.887 resistance. Further rise is now expected to 61.8% projection of 1.343 to 4.333 from 3.253 at 5.100. Reaction from there would be crucial in driving overall risk sentiment. Sustained break of this 5.100 projection could spark steep selloff in stocks with contagion effects to push up Dollar. In any case, near term outlook in TNX will stay bullish as long as 4.532 support holds, in case of retreat.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -1.68%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.95%. China Shanghai SSE is down -1.21%. Singapore Strait Times is down -1.14%. 10-year JGB yield is up 0.033 at 0.841. Overnight, DOW dropped -0.98%. S&P 500 dropped -1.34%. NASDAQ dropped -1.62%. 10-year yield rose 0.057 to 4.904.

Japan saw a welcomed increase in exports in September, breaking a two-month declining trend and outpacing forecasts. Exports rose by 4.3% yoy to JPY 9198B, surpassing the anticipated growth of 3.1% yoy.

A closer examination of the trade partners reveals a contrasting scenario. Exports to China, Japan's prominent trading partner, dipped by -6.2% yoy, marking the tenth consecutive month of decline. A staggering -58% yoy drop in food shipments contributed significantly to this contraction. Conversely, trade ties with US and Europe exhibited robustness, with exports expanding by 13.0% yoy and 12.9% yoy respectively.

On the import front, Japan reported a decline of -16.3% yoy to JPY 9136B, a steeper fall than the anticipated -12.9% yoy. Trade dynamics shifted, with Japan posting a trade surplus of JPY 62.4B.

When assessed in seasonally adjusted terms, exports went up by 7.2% mom to JPY 8910B, while imports climbed by 5.4% mom, reaching JPY 9345B. Consequently, trade deficit was reduced to JPY -434B.

Australia's job market portrayed a mixed picture in September, with a significant undershoot in employment growth countered by a lower-than-expected unemployment rate.

The country added a mere 6.7k jobs in the month, a far cry from the anticipated 20.3k. Delving deeper into the data, full-time employment took a hit, shrinking by -39.9k. However, this was partly offset by increase in part-time roles, which swelled by 46.5k.

Unemployment rate showed slight improvement, ticking down to 3.6% from previous 3.7%, despite expectations that it would remain steady. Yet, this decline could be attributed to a drop in participation rate, which receded from 67.0% to 66.7%. Meanwhile, total monthly hours worked contracted by -0.4% mom, equivalent to a reduction of 8 million hours.

Kate Lamb, ABS's head of labour statistics, highlighted that, when considering the last two months, the average monthly employment growth stood at 35k, in line with the yearly average growth. However, Lamb also drew attention to the declining unemployment rate in September, indicating it primarily resulted from a shift of people from the unemployed category to being outside the labor force altogether.

Furthermore, she noted, "The recent softening in hours worked, relative to employment growth, may suggest an easing in labour market strength."

Australian businesses are displaying signs of renewed optimism, as revealed by NAB Quarterly Business Confidence index for Q3. The index improved, moving up from -4 in the second quarter to -1 in the third. Moreover, the gauge for Current Business Conditions also indicated better sentiment, rising from 11 to 13.

However, an undercurrent of concern persisted regarding cost dynamics. Labour cost growth experienced an increase, shifting up to 1.8% from the 1.3% witnessed in Q2. On the other hand, purchase costs growth showed a modest climb, reaching 1.4% from the 1.3% seen in the previous quarter. In a positive sign, fewer businesses highlighted materials as a limiting factor, with the percentage dropping to 32% from the 36% reported in Q2.

NAB's Chief Economist Alan Oster noted, "Price growth remained elevated in Q3. This is in line with our expectation for a reasonably strong inflation print of 1.1% for the quarter when the full Q3 CPI is released next week."

However, he tempered the immediate inflationary concerns with a longer-term view, adding, "Still, we do expect inflation to moderate gradually as the economy slows."

Swiss trade balance and Eurozone current account will be released in Euroepan session. Later in the day, US will publish jobless claims, Philly Fed survey and existing home sales. Canada will release IPPI and RMPI.

EUR/AUD's rally from 1.6319 resumed by taking out 1.6704 and intraday bias is back on the upside. Outlook is unchanged that correction from 1.7062 should have completed at 1.6319. Further rally is expected to retest 1.7062 high next. On the downside, however, break of 1.6550 support will dampen this view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.6319 instead.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from medium term rising trend line indicates that rise from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still in progress. On resumption, next target is 100% projection of 1.5846 to 1.7062 from 1.6319 at 1.7353. In any case, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.6319 support holds.

Rates continue their march higher, with UST yields out to the 10Y tenor marking new cycle highs with the aforementioned coming close to 4.93%. The theme remains unchanged with economic resilience as the underlying driver, but there were no new catalysts to really lay a finger on over the course of yesterday's session. Late in the day, the 20Y UST auction that many had feared had actually seen good demand, and looking at the Middle East, one does not really get the feeling of easing tensions. Oil prices, for one thing, remain on the higher side.

For today, many will look forward to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech tonight and whether he chimes in with some of the more moderate tones of late that had pointed to the steep rise of longer rates doing some of the Fed's work. The need for drastic communications change looks limited, though. With regards to the upcoming meeting on 1 November, it does not look like the market needs any particular guidance. Pricing only a minimal chance for a hike, minds appear largely made up. Guidance beyond the upcoming meeting is unlikely to change very much as we see little reason for the Fed to give up optionality for a further hike.

The Fed's Christopher Waller yesterday argued there was good reason "to wait, watch and see" how the economy evolves, but more policy tightening could be needed despite higher long-term rates if the economy continued to prove strong and inflation stabilised or even reaccelerated.

European rates get pulled higher alongside the US, although the higher-than-expected UK CPI data did add a bit of a local spin. That said, they still lag behind the 10Y UST-Bund spread which is approaching 200bp. EUR rates are more exposed to the tensions in the Middle East. This more fragile risk sentiment is also reflected in the widening of sovereign spreads within the eurozone. The key spread on everybody's mind is those of Italian bonds, where the 10y spread over Bunds has moved further above the 200bp mark.

While likely to pause on hiking rates further, the European Central Bank could shift the focus to its balance sheet and may kick off a more formal discussion on ending the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) reinvestments earlier at the upcoming policy-setting meeting next week. While some officials are reluctant to admit that Italy's bond spreads will have a bearing on any future decision, Ireland's Gabriel Makhlouf stated they could very well be a focus. There is good reason to tread carefully as flexible PEPP reinvestments currently form the ECB's first line of defence against bond spread turmoil.

In the near term, Italy faces scheduled reviews of major rating agencies starting with S&P this Friday. Currently, S&P rates Italy at BBB with a stable outlook, but following the government's loosened deficit plans, the stable outlook seems vulnerable. The key date, however, will be the review by Moody's on 17 November, where Italy currently sits at the lowest investment grade rating with a negative outlook.

Given the potentially dragged-out ECB debate about speeding up quantitative tightening and lingering rating risks, the room for Italian spreads to recover looks limited.

Upward pressure on rates is maintained by the resilient macro outlook and, for now, also defies geopolitical tensions.

The calendar looks more interesting today, with the US initial jobless claims being seen as a more contemporaneous indicator of labour market health than the monthly jobs data. We will also get the existing home sales numbers and the publication of the Conference Board's leading indicator. But Fed Chair Powell's speech later in the day will likely be regarded as the main event.

European primary government bond markets will be busy with French and Spanish auctions, as well as the syndicated triple-tranche sale from Austria with a new 7Y bond and two long-end taps.

Oil prices fell on Thursday after rising about 2 per cent the previous day as the US eased sanctions on OPEC member Venezuela amid supply concerns caused by the Israel-Gaza war.

Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, was trading 0.57 per cent lower at $90.98 a barrel at 7.38am UAE time while West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was down 0.36 per cent at $88 a barrel.

On Wednesday, Brent settled 1.78 per cent higher at $91.50 a barrel while WTI was up 1.92 per cent at $88.32.

The US Treasury Department issued a six-month general licence on Wednesday that temporarily authorised transactions involving Venezuela's oil and gas sector after a deal was reached between the government and the country's political opposition to ensure fair elections next year.

“The licence will be renewed only if Venezuela meets its commitments under the electoral road map, as well as other commitments with respect to those who are wrongfully detained,” the Treasury Department said.

If sanctions are lifted, Venezuelan oil output could increase from 2024.

“However, the potential expansion is hindered by the prolonged lack of investments in the industry,” Sofia Di Sante, senior oil market analyst, said in a research note this week.

“In the short term – six months after sanctions are lifted – production could only ramp up by a maximum of 200,000 barrels per day, a relative drop in the ocean on the global stage,” she said.

Last week, the International Energy Agency raised its 2023 demand forecast to 2.3 million bpd, from a previous estimate of 2.2 million bpd, citing “buoyant” demand growth in China, India and Brazil.

The oil market has been tight due to OPEC+ output cuts and supply reductions of a combined 1.3 million bpd by Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Brent has risen by about 8 per cent since Hamas, the militant group that rules Gaza, launched an unprecedented assault on Israel on October 7.

Israel has retaliated with air strikes on Gaza and is gearing up for a ground offensive in the Palestinian enclave, home to 2.1 million people.

More than 500 Palestinians were killed in an air strike on a Gaza city hospital on Tuesday, leading to protests in several Middle Eastern countries.

While Palestinian health workers confirmed it was an Israeli strike, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government has denied responsibility.

Meanwhile, US crude stocks, an indicator of fuel demand, decreased by 4.5 million barrels in the week that ended on October 13, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Total petroleum inventories fell by 2.4 million barrels last week while distillate fuel stocks dropped by 3.2 million barrels, the EIA data showed.

Growing tension in the Middle East continues to support oil prices, with ICE Brent settling 1.78% higher yesterday at US$91.50/bbl after an explosion at a hospital in Gaza. While the explosion was quickly blamed on an Israeli strike, both Israel and the US Pentagon have since said that a militant group was responsible for the explosion. The incident only adds to instability in the region and Iran has already called on Islamic oil producers to impose an oil embargo against Israel amid the wider conflict. Israel is a relatively small oil importer, importing a little over 200Mbbls/d with the two largest suppliers being Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan at the moment. If we were to see a disruption to these flows, given the relatively small volumes, Israel should be able to quite easily find alternatives. The oil market has demonstrated quite well since the Russia-Ukraine war how trade flows are able to adjust to trade restrictions.

Yesterday's EIA report was fairly constructive, showing that US crude oil inventories fell by 4.49MMbbls over the last week, whilst crude oil inventories at Cushing fell by 758Mbbls to a little over 21MMbbls and to the lowest levels since 2014. The draw in crude stocks was largely driven by a spike in exports with them growing by 2.23MMbbls/d WoW to 5.3MMbbls/d. Refined products also saw inventory declines with gasoline and distillate stocks falling by 2.37MMbbls and 3.19MMbbls respectively. In addition to this, implied demand jumped by 2.23MMbbls/d over the week. The concern for the market is that crude oil inventories continue to edge lower at a time when they should be building, whilst stocks are also a little more than 20MMbbls below the 5-year average. Similarly, distillate stocks are well below the 5-year average as we head into the winter months.

Chinese macro data released yesterday came in stronger than expected, whilst the oil numbers were also supportive with refineries in China processing a record 15.5MMbbls/d of crude oil over the September. In addition, domestic demand remains robust coming in at around 15.2MMbbls/d, up 3% MoM and 5% higher YoY. Given these stronger numbers, domestic crude oil inventories fell at a rate of around 200Mbbls/d last month.

Gold has surged to its highest levels since early August, with prices briefly breaking above $1,960/oz yesterday amid the growing conflict in the Middle East. Despite the more recent moves in US treasury yields with the 10-year yield above 4.9%, up more than 20bps since Monday's close, the gold market is holding firm amid stronger safe haven demand given the current geopolitical environment. When considering the carry along the forward curve, forward values are looking even more attractive for producers with prices trading above $2,000/oz from April 2024 onwards.

Base metal prices saw some initial strength yesterday following GDP data from China which beat market estimates. However, there are clearly still concerns over the property sector and metals were unable to hold onto all of their earlier gains.

LME copper inventories continue to increase and now stand at their highest since October 2021. Copper stockpiles jumped by 11,000 tonnes to 191,675 tonnes yesterday, driven by increases into New Orleans. LME copper stocks have been rising for the past few months and are up more than 115% since the start of 2023.

The latest data from China shows that aluminium output continues to hit new highs, with production hitting a record 119kt per day in September with smelters in the southwestern province of Yunnan continuing to ramp up output. This compares to the previous record of 116kt per day set in August.

As widely expected, India has extended its export restrictions on sugar beyond 31 October. This is after concerns over domestic supply, given expectations for a poorer crop this season due to a deficit in rainfall in some of the key growing regions. The Indian Sugar Mills Association currently forecasts that domestic output will fall 3.4% YoY to 31.7mt, although there are some estimating the crop to be quite a bit smaller than this. India allowed 6mt of sugar exports in the 2022/23 season and any export quotas for 2023/24 will be significantly lower than this, if any at all. The government will want to wait until it has a better idea of the size of the crop before allowing any exports.

Recent trade numbers from China Customs show that wheat imports rose 66.4% YoY to 620kt in September, although imports were down 26.2% MoM. Cumulative wheat imports over the first nine months of the year stand at 10.2mt, up 53.6% YoY. There are expectations that imports might pick up in the coming months, as domestic wheat plantings are expected to fall due to bad weather. For corn, monthly imports increased 37.5% MoM and 7.3% YoY to 1.65mt. However, cumulative imports are still down 10.3% YoY to a total 16.6mt.