Will the Bull Run in May Lead to a Market Banquet's End?

Economic

Stocks

Summary:

Despite a robust rally in May, investors are concerned that the upward momentum in U.S. stocks may be nearing its end. Historically, May has been one of the weakest months for equity returns.

SELL US30

Close Time

CLOSED

42141.92

Entry Price

41000.00

42900.00

47993.92 -5.98 -0.01%

7580.8

Pips

Loss

41000.00

42900.97

Exit Price

42141.92

Entry Price

42900.00

Fundamentals

Last Friday, the U.S. stock market overcame its initial sluggishness at the open, with major indices experiencing a modest recovery. The market closed with mixed results, essentially flat overall.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed up 54.34 points, or 0.13%, at 42,270 points. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed down 62.11 points, or 0.32%, at 19,113 points. And the S&P 500 Index closed down 0.48 points, or 0.01%, at 5,911 points.

On the economic front, a closely watched report released by the U.S. Department of Commerce last Friday revealed that consumer spending in the United States, which had seen its strongest month since early 2023, began to slow in April. Meanwhile, inflation remained benign, aligning with the trend of economic deceleration. The annual rate of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index in April was recorded at 2.5%, marking the smallest year-over-year increase in over four years.

These figures highlight the underlying anxiety among many U.S. consumers following the weakest consumer quarter in nearly two years. Although higher tariffs on imported goods have not yet been broadly reflected in rising consumer prices, consumer sentiment has plummeted, and personal financial outlooks have reached historical lows.

However, the report also indicates that U.S. consumers remain resilient. The Federal Reserve may view the current mild inflation in personal consumption expenditures as a "calm before the storm," and will likely continue to wait for further economic developments. Unless there is a significant contraction in consumer spending coupled with a rapid increase in unemployment, the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates easily.

Will the Bull Run in May Lead to a Market Banquet's End?_1

Technical Analysis

On Monday, the U.S. stock market faced some bearish pressure. However, as the indices remained within a three-day trading range, the market can be described as being in a consolidation phase, with no clear consensus on the next directional move.

Additionally, President Trump's threat over the weekend to double tariffs on European steel and aluminum imports has raised concerns about the potential escalation of trade frictions. Should the market begin to decline, the current stalemate could be broken.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently consolidating near its 200-day moving average. While the fundamental outlook for the market is mixed, from a technical standpoint, it appears that the market is approaching a resistance level and is awaiting a pullback. If the index moves lower, support could be found near the 40,000-point level.

On the upside, a breakout above the MA200, followed by a close above this level with strengthened bullish momentum, would confirm the continuation of the upward trend. The short-term trading range is currently between 42,660 and 41,300 points.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 42240

Target Price: 41000

Stop Loss: 42900

Deadline: June 18, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 41861/41500/41331

Resistance: 42371/42475/42718

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Alan

Stocks

Summary:

The latest U.S. PCE data, while offering a temporary respite from inflation concerns, is overshadowed by policy risks and valuation bubbles, which are the primary drivers of the Nasdaq's downward trajectory.

SELL IXIC

Close Time

CLOSED

19113.76

Entry Price

17700.00

19500.00

23578.12 +72.98 +0.31%

3862.4

Pips

Loss

17700.00

19518.20

Exit Price

19113.76

Entry Price

19500.00

Fundamentals

Recently, the latest U.S. PCE inflation data showed a 0.1% increase month-over-month, with the year-over-year growth rate decreasing from 2.3% to 2.1%. Core PCE inflation also declined from 2.6% to 2.5%. While this theoretically paves the way for a Federal Reserve rate cut, policy and structural risks are strongly offsetting the potential support for the Nasdaq from anticipated rate cuts, creating a confluence of negative factors.

Firstly, weakened sovereign credit is increasing capital costs. Moody's has downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to Aa1 (all three major agencies have downgraded), directly increasing Treasury yields and corporate financing costs, leading to a "double whammy" effect on high-valuation tech stocks—simultaneous compression of valuations and downward revision of earnings expectations.

Secondly, tariff disputes are eroding the foundation of profitability. The Trump administration's plan to raise steel tariffs from 25% to 50% on June 4th will sharply increase costs for the tech manufacturing sector (e.g., a 15%-20% increase in server/data center hardware costs). This, coupled with legal uncertainties arising from the U.S. Court of International Trade's ruling that tariff policies are unconstitutional, means that companies' long-term earnings models are facing restructuring.

Thirdly, short selling siphons off liquidity. Hedge funds hold US$1.1 trillion in short positions on the Nasdaq, and ETF short selling reached US$218 billion (a peak since 2021), forming a "passive selling pressure spiral." The Nasdaq 100's valuation bubble, with a P/E ratio as high as 30x, significantly exceeds the historical average of 20x, sharply amplifying the market's sensitivity to negative news.

Overall, although PCE data temporarily eased inflation concerns, policy risks and valuation bubbles constitute the dominant logic behind the Nasdaq's decline.

Technical Analysis

The Market May Revert to a Downtrend due to Significant Upward Pressure_1

In the 1D timeframe, the Nasdaq Composite Index has rebounded to below the significant resistance level formed by the 19,100-20,200 range following a prior sharp decline. This zone also represents a historical area of trapped investors, suggesting potential short-term upward pressure on the index. Concurrently, the recent sustained rally has led to an accumulation of profit-taking, which may exert downward pressure on the index.

From a candlestick perspective, the Nasdaq Composite Index has left three unfilled gaps during its recent rebound, reinforcing the downward momentum due to the need to fill these gaps.

Trading Recommendations

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 19120

Target Price: 17700

Stop Loss: 19500

Valid Until: June 16, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 18281, 17503

Resistance: 19389, 20200

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Ethereum has been repeatedly rejected to the upside from this area, suggesting that buyers are stepping in, potentially setting the stage for an upward movement.

BUY ETH-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

2542.51

Entry Price

2680.00

2450.00

3133.26 +106.30 +3.51%

378.9

Pips

Profit

2450.00

2580.40

Exit Price

2542.51

Entry Price

2680.00

The recent price surge in Ethereum appears to be driven by strong institutional participation in the futures markets. This suggests that, despite a lack of significant growth in everyday network usage, there has been renewed speculative or investment interest from financial players.

For Ethereum, this development represents a double-edged sword: on one hand, it attracts institutional capital, which is crucial for the asset's long-term credibility; on the other, it doesn’t necessarily translate into greater adoption or utility for the broader public.

Ethereum’s blockchain network continues to face challenges in expanding its daily usage, despite having implemented substantial technical upgrades. A recent report by investment bank JPMorgan, covered by CoinDesk, casts doubt on the real-world impact of recent updates such as Dencun and Pectra on network adoption and transaction volumes.

The analysis, led by strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, highlights that neither the daily transaction count nor the number of active addresses has shown meaningful growth following the introduction of these improvements. While Ethereum remains the leading platform for smart contracts, the lack of an uptick in activity raises questions about the effectiveness of these updates in attracting real users.

Ethereum rolled out the Dencun update in March 2024, followed by the Pectra upgrade on May 7. These updates are part of Ethereum's broader roadmap to build a more efficient ecosystem by reducing costs, optimizing the user experience, and enhancing staking and wallet functionalities.

Specifically, Pectra aims to simplify staking participation and make wallet usage more user-friendly, while also enhancing network efficiency. JPMorgan emphasizes that these enhancements make Ethereum and its native token ETH more appealing to financial institutions, particularly when compared to competing networks.

At the same time, REX Shares and Osprey Funds have filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch the first exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that combine direct exposure to cryptocurrencies with staking mechanisms.

According to published reports, both funds will focus on Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) and will include the distribution of staking rewards to their investors.

This marks a significant step for the sector, which has faced regulatory hurdles in offering staking within traditional investment products. The N-1A filing with the SEC reveals that the funds will invest “at least 80% of their net assets” in their respective underlying cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, at least 50% of these holdings will be used for staking—an activity in which funds are locked into proof-of-stake (PoS) networks in exchange for economic returns.

Unlike previously approved ETFs that operate as “regulated investment companies,” these new products will register as C-corporations for tax purposes. This decision enables them to distribute staking earnings as dividends, subject to traditional tax rates, without relying on more difficult-to-obtain regulatory exemptions. Support Could Trigger Renewed Bullish Momentum_1

Support Could Trigger Renewed Bullish Momentum_1

Technical Analysis

ETH has recently retraced to a local low of 2,475, a price point that seems to be forming a strong support zone. Ethereum has been repeatedly rejected to the upside from this area, suggesting that buyers are stepping in, potentially setting the stage for an upward movement. The next target lies at the resistance level around 2,688. A solid break above this level could trigger an extension towards 2,800, where the upper boundary of the channel lies.

The RSI recently reached a local low of 27.26, a level not seen since May 25. Back then, Ethereum rallied significantly, nearly reaching 2,800. If a similar rejection occurs at this price point, it could accelerate bullish sentiment, particularly from buyers looking to capitalize on lower prices.

Additionally, the 100-period and 200-period moving averages sit at 2,620 and 2,586, respectively. A close above these moving averages could trigger a swift continuation of the bullish momentum, confirming the strength of the upward trend.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 2542

Target price: 2680

Stop loss: 2450

Validity: Jun 10, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

This area may provide an additional layer of technical support. If Bitcoin holds above this level, it could open the door for a continued bullish move.

BUY BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

104690.0

Entry Price

110400.0

101200.0

91771.0 +2216.2 +2.47%

393.1

Pips

Profit

101200.0

105083.1

Exit Price

104690.0

Entry Price

110400.0

Trump Media & Technology Group, the media company affiliated with former President Donald Trump, has officially closed its previously announced private funding round with the goal of establishing a corporate treasury held in Bitcoin.

The fundraising involved the sale of 55.8 million common shares under the DJT ticker at a price of $25.72 per share, raising approximately $1.44 billion in gross proceeds. In addition, the company issued zero-coupon senior convertible notes maturing in 2028 with a conversion price of $34.72 per share, totaling $1 billion in face value. Altogether, the company secured around $2.44 billion, according to a company statement.

Meanwhile, Coinbase—one of the most prominent cryptocurrency exchanges globally—is making a notable move to attract institutional investors to the digital asset space.

Coinbase Asset Management, the division focused on delivering tailored investment strategies for institutions, has introduced a new vehicle designed to generate yield on Bitcoin holdings. The fund, called the Coinbase Bitcoin Yield Fund, aims to offer institutional players annualized returns between 4% and 8%, with redemptions made directly in Bitcoin.

"Unlike traditional financial assets or digital assets with native staking mechanisms like Ethereum and Solana, Bitcoin doesn’t inherently generate yield. Bitcoin yield funds are emerging to fill this gap," the company said in an official statement.

In parallel developments, global banking giant Santander is reportedly exploring a broader offering of digital asset services to retail clients across Europe.

According to a Bloomberg report published Thursday, the bank is assessing ways to expand its online banking operations to include access to both cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. Although the plans are still in their early stages, sources familiar with the matter told the outlet that Openbank, Santander’s digital banking arm, has already applied for licenses under the EU’s new regulatory framework, MiCA, which came fully into effect in December 2024.

Regarding stablecoins, Santander is said to be evaluating whether to integrate existing tokens or potentially launch its own stablecoin. According to the report, the bank is considering offering stablecoins denominated in both euros and U.S. dollars.

Recent market data indicates that approximately $765 million in total liquidations occurred, with the majority stemming from long positions—bets that the market would move higher. Specifically, Bitcoin saw $46 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, most of which were long positions. BTC Eyes Upside Continuation Amid Institutional Demand_1

BTC Eyes Upside Continuation Amid Institutional Demand_1

Technical Analysis

BTCUSD has regained upward momentum after bouncing from the 103,100 level. Despite brief selling pressure, Bitcoin failed to break below this critical zone, suggesting renewed bullish interest that may support further upside. This recovery aligns with growing institutional involvement and optimism surrounding digital asset adoption.

The price is also approaching the 200-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, currently sitting around 102,780. This area may provide an additional layer of technical support. If Bitcoin holds above this level, it could open the door for a continued bullish move.

Nearby local support is found at 102,355, while the next key resistance is around 110,400. A decisive break above this resistance could reinforce the uptrend and confirm a higher high, which would preserve the bullish structure. Conversely, the lack of new local lows reflects weakening bearish momentum and strengthens the case for an upside continuation.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 104670

Target price: 110400

Stop loss: 101200

Validity: Jun 10, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The GBP/JPY pair slips toward 194.50 amid a Pound pullback, but bullish technicals and resilient UK macro data suggest limited downside.

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

194.200

Entry Price

197.000

192.500

207.099 -0.001 0.00%

32.0

Pips

Profit

192.500

194.520

Exit Price

194.200

Entry Price

197.000

The British pound slipped against the Japanese yen on Friday, with the GBP/JPY pair retreating toward the 194.50 level in European trading, easing off Thursday's near two-week peak at 195.60. The modest correction in the cross reflects a bout of profit-taking in Sterling following an impressive multi-day rally. However, the broader bullish bias remains intact as markets reevaluate their dovish expectations for the Bank of England in light of persistently strong UK inflation and consumption data.

The pullback in GBP/JPY is unfolding in the context of a recalibration of monetary policy expectations on both sides of the currency pair. In the UK, recent economic data has sharply challenged the consensus that the BoE is on a near-term rate-cutting trajectory. Last week, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at an annual pace of 3.5% in April, above forecasts and well above the central bank's 2% target. Compounding this, UK retail sales posted an impressive 1.2% month-over-month increase, underscoring robust consumer demand despite the lingering pressure of elevated borrowing costs.

This confluence of inflationary persistence and resilient household spending has prompted investors to temper bets on a June rate cut by the BoE. According to futures market pricing, the probability of a near-term policy easing has markedly declined, offering fundamental support for the pound even in the face of short-term technical consolidation.

In contrast, the Japanese yen is finding a firmer footing, driven by a significant spike in domestic bond yields amid speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is preparing to adjust its bond-buying program. The rise in JGB yields has stirred market talk of a subtle shift in the BoJ's ultra-accommodative stance, which has long underpinned yen weakness. For now, however, the BoJ remains broadly dovish, and structural headwinds such as negative real yields and continued policy divergence from Western central banks keep the yen's strength in check.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, GBP/JPY remains in an uptrend on the 4-hour chart, even as price action eases from recent highs. The pair is currently testing a key horizontal support level around 193.93 — a zone that previously served as resistance and now aligns as an important structural pivot.

The 7-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped into oversold territory, suggesting that the recent sell-off may be overstretched and a rebound is likely. The broader sentiment remains bullish, with the pair comfortably above its 50- and 100-period moving averages and price action supported by ascending trendline dynamics.

Barring a decisive breakdown below 193.93, the technical structure favors a continuation of the bullish move, with the 195.00 level emerging as the immediate upside target. A successful breach of that resistance would open the door to further gains toward 195.60 and beyond — a level that previously marked the upper bound of the recent rally.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GBPJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 194.20

STOP LOSS: 192.50

TAKE PROFIT: 197.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

Oil prices fell on Thursday after a U.S. court reinstated former President Trump’s trade tariffs, raising concerns about renewed global trade tensions

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

60.000

Entry Price

55.000

62.000

59.761 -0.048 -0.08%

200.0

Pips

Loss

55.000

62.007

Exit Price

60.000

Entry Price

62.000

Oil markets reversed early gains on Thursday in a sharp reaction to fresh trade policy jitters and growing unease about global oversupply. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures, which had shown signs of stabilizing, were pulled lower after the U.S. Court of Appeals overturned a lower court decision blocking former President Donald Trump's sweeping trade tariffs. The ruling rekindled fears that a new wave of trade disputes could derail the already fragile global economic recovery.

The market’s initial optimism was upended by this unexpected judicial development, which signaled a potential return to protectionist rhetoric. While the current U.S. administration continues to court foreign trade partners with promises of “beautiful deals,” investors are growing increasingly disillusioned by the lack of tangible progress. Protracted negotiations with Japan and a noticeable stalemate in discussions with China have only intensified concerns that global trade conditions may worsen before they improve.

Attention now shifts to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting scheduled for May 31. While some analysts had hoped for a wait-and-see approach amid global demand uncertainties, there is growing consensus that the group may proceed with a planned production hike of 411,000 barrels per day beginning in July. In a market still grappling with sluggish demand and rising inventories, the prospect of more oil coming online has added another bearish element to an already fragile setup.

The supply side of the equation remains clouded by overhang risks. Should OPEC+ confirm the output increase, the resultant glut could drive prices even lower—especially if demand does not pick up in tandem.

The macroeconomic backdrop continues to deteriorate, reinforcing the case for lower oil prices. In the United States, first-quarter GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.2%, raising alarms about a possible slowdown in the world’s largest economy. Most notably, consumer spending—a crucial pillar of economic activity—registered a decline, as both households and businesses adopt a wait-and-see approach in the face of erratic trade policies.

The malaise is not confined to the U.S. In Germany, the Eurozone’s economic engine, the latest labor market data showed a spike in layoffs during April. Coupled with weaker-than-expected retail sales figures, the data underscored a loss of economic momentum that has left investors jittery.

This combination of faltering economic indicators from both sides of the Atlantic suggests that oil demand could remain under pressure for the foreseeable future. With global trade snarled in uncertainty and consumer sentiment weakening, the likelihood of a robust rebound in crude consumption is diminishing.

Amid the gloom, there was a brief respite from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which reported a surprise drawdown in crude stockpiles. Inventories fell by 2.8 million barrels last week, contrary to market expectations of a 1 million barrel increase. While this provided a short-term floor for prices, it was not enough to reverse the broader bearish trend.

Market participants are increasingly skeptical that inventory data alone can prop up prices in the face of formidable macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, the WTI crude chart is flashing warning signs. Prices have once again come under sustained pressure, with intraday action pointing toward an imminent test of the critical $60.00 support level. This price threshold has historically served as a robust floor, fending off multiple sell-off attempts in recent months.

However, with momentum skewed to the downside and the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50) exerting further downward drag, a decisive break below $60 could open the floodgates for a deeper correction. Should this level give way, crude could potentially slide as low as $55.00 in the near term.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL WTI

ENTRY PRICE: 60.00

STOP LOSS: 62.00

TAKE PROFIT: 55.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Central Bank

Summary:

During the European session on Friday, gold prices continued to decline and are currently slightly below the $3300 mark. The intraday drop was primarily driven by a modest strengthening of the US dollar. Additionally, the ongoing influence of two head-and-shoulders patterns continues to exert pressure on gold prices, fueling a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3292.44

Entry Price

3190.00

3350.00

4210.84 +12.93 +0.31%

575.6

Pips

Loss

3190.00

3350.01

Exit Price

3292.44

Entry Price

3350.00

Fundamentals

On Friday, gold prices extended their downward trend. The previous day, gold prices surged from the weekly low of $3245 on Thursday, driven by a weak US employment report, and briefly broke above the $3300 mark. The report highlighted rising risks of high unemployment, which increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease policy, causing the US dollar to plunge and thereby boosting gold's short-term outlook. However, as the US dollar strengthened on Friday and the two head-and-shoulders patterns continued to play out, gold prices once again faced a contest between bulls and bears. Despite a cumulative increase of over 22% in gold prices year-to-date, a decline is expected for this week amid market volatility, which appears to be weighing on gold.

The market's focus now shifts to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, scheduled for release later on Friday. This inflation report, favored by the Federal Reserve, is expected to show a slowdown in price increases last month, potentially providing room for the Fed to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy.

Generally, a decline in interest rates enhances the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.

The Battle of Head-and-Shoulders Patterns to Determine the Price Direction within the Triangle Consolidation_1

Technical Analysis

On Thursday, gold prices rebounded strongly to the $3330 level after testing $3245. The strength of the bulls temporarily altered the downward trajectory within the triangle consolidation pattern. Currently, the market remains in a state of equilibrium between bulls and bears.

Within the triangle consolidation, the battle between the "head-and-shoulders bottom" and "head-and-shoulders top" patterns is intensifying. According to this pattern theory, the current gold price stands at $3294. If the price breaks below $3285, the bulls will be at risk of failure. Conversely, if it breaks above $3346, the bears will face the risk of being squeezed out.

Therefore, we believe that the tug-of-war within this $60 range will determine the price direction within the triangle consolidation.