Gold Prices Rebound as Moody’s Downgrade and Weak US Data Stir Safe-Haven Demand

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Gold prices bounce back above $3,230/oz as Moody’s cuts the US credit rating and weak economic data increases expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3229.77

Entry Price

3320.00

3180.00

4210.41 +12.50 +0.30%

104.2

Pips

Profit

3180.00

3240.19

Exit Price

3229.77

Entry Price

3320.00

Gold (XAU/USD) edged higher during Monday’s Asian trading session, recovering from last week’s steep losses and stabilizing around $3,230 per troy ounce. This rebound marks a significant shift in market sentiment, driven by rising concerns over the United States’ deteriorating fiscal outlook and a wave of disappointing domestic economic indicators. The precious metal’s resurgence comes as a classic flight to safety, amid renewed scrutiny of US creditworthiness and heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve could adopt a more dovish policy stance in the months ahead.

The catalyst for this renewed bullish tone in gold markets came from a fresh downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody’s Investors Service, which cut its sovereign outlook by one notch from Aaa to Aa1. This move brings Moody’s in line with earlier decisions by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and Standard & Poor’s all the way back in 2011. But what has rattled investors is not just the downgrade itself—it’s the outlook.

Moody’s projects that US federal debt is on track to balloon to a staggering 134% of GDP by 2035, a sharp escalation from the 98% level recorded in 2023. Additionally, the fiscal deficit is forecasted to widen to nearly 9% of GDP, fueled by rising interest payments, increased entitlement spending, and lackluster tax revenues. This bleak fiscal trajectory has renewed market fears that Washington may soon struggle to sustain its debt load without either aggressive monetary accommodation or painful budgetary reforms.

As a result, investors are rotating back into traditional safe-haven assets. "Gold is behaving exactly how it should in moments of structural fiscal alarm," said one commodities strategist at a major European bank. “We are now seeing markets reprice the Fed’s ability to remain restrictive in its policy.”

Indeed, supporting the rally in gold has been a streak of underwhelming US macroeconomic data. Last week, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.8 in May—its lowest since June 2022 and the fifth straight monthly decline. The reading came as a shock to economists who had expected a modest rebound to 53.4. It reinforces growing skepticism about the strength of the US consumer and, by extension, the broader economy.

This economic softness has revived market speculation that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates sooner than anticipated. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows increased probability of two or more rate cuts by year-end, a shift from the hawkish pricing just a month ago.

Gold’s strength also comes against a backdrop of improving global risk sentiment that had briefly undercut its appeal. Last week, bullion posted a more than 3% weekly drop—its worst since November—as traders welcomed de-escalation in several geopolitical hotspots. A breakthrough in US-China trade talks saw both countries agree to significantly scale back tariffs: Washington to reduce duties on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while Beijing plans to cut levies on US imports from 125% to 10%. Furthermore, optimism around potential US-Iran nuclear negotiations and an expected summit between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin added to the recent shift toward riskier assets.

However, the relief appears to have been short-lived. The re-emergence of US fiscal concerns has reminded investors that the underlying global fragilities have not been resolved. In that context, gold’s appeal as a portfolio hedge and store of value has once again risen to prominence.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, gold has broken above a key 4-hour downward trendline and pierced a resistance zone that previously capped gains. The move is supported by increasing bullish momentum and a flush of liquidity positioned above the current price range, which signals the potential for further upside movement.

We see the next short-term targets at $3,250, $3,260, and potentially $3,320. These price levels correspond with recent areas of interest and liquidity clusters. Unless a confirmed bearish reversal signal emerges, the market remains structurally bullish.

Selling into this market without confirmation is risky,we’ve broken key resistance, trendlines are turning upward, and fundamentals are starting to back the move.

Until any new macroeconomic shock or surprise Fed statement alters the landscape, gold seems poised to build on this upward momentum.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3230

STOP LOSS: 3180

TAKE PROFIT: 3320

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

This confluence of technical resistance could reinforce a bearish outlook, with the next significant support potentially lying near the 0.8200 handle.

SELL USDCHF

EXP

EXPIRED

0.83800

Entry Price

0.82000

0.84300

0.80393 -0.00062 -0.08%

Pips

EXPIRED

0.82000

0.82680

Exit Price

0.83800

Entry Price

0.84300

After the U.S. market closed on Friday, credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded the sovereign debt rating of the United States. The agency cited a significant and persistent rise in debt servicing costs, which now far exceed those of similarly rated sovereigns. Moody’s specifically emphasized that U.S. interest payment obligations are “markedly higher than those of peers with comparable credit ratings.”

This downgrade reflects Moody’s growing skepticism regarding the U.S. government’s ability to craft and implement multi-year fiscal consolidation plans. The agency pointed out that “successive U.S. administrations and Congress have consistently failed to reach agreements on measures to reverse the trend of large annual budget deficits and mounting interest burdens.”

Adding to the concerns, the latest preliminary reading from the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey painted a grim picture. Sentiment plunged to 50.8—its second-lowest reading on record. At the same time, short-term inflation expectations jumped unexpectedly, with consumers now anticipating a 7.3% increase in prices over the next year, up from 6.5% in April and the highest projection since 1981. This suggests that households are bracing for prolonged cost-of-living pressures, a scenario that could compel the Federal Reserve to maintain elevated interest rates for longer, even in the face of weakening consumer confidence.

Meanwhile, April’s Producer Price Index (PPI) data came in softer than expected. Headline PPI declined by 0.5% month-over-month, while core PPI also contracted by 0.4%. This weaker-than-expected data has raised fresh concerns over the pricing power of U.S. businesses, potentially signaling softer economic momentum ahead.

Despite these pressures, Federal Reserve officials remain cautious. Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed, suggested that while economic growth in the U.S. could slow, it may not necessarily slide into recession—a sign of the Fed’s continued wait-and-see approach.

On the global front, reduced trade tensions have prompted a rotation into riskier assets, putting downward pressure on traditional safe havens such as the Swiss franc (CHF). At the same time, 10-year Swiss government bond yields have climbed toward 0.37%, in line with the broader global trend of rising borrowing costs amid improved investor risk appetite.

Nevertheless, gains in Swiss bond yields are being limited by expectations of further monetary easing from the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Last week, SNB Chairman Thomas Schlegel reiterated the central bank’s willingness to intervene in currency markets and cut interest rates even deeper into negative territory, should inflation continue to undershoot its target. Further Downside Ahead if Sellers Keep the Upper Hand_1

Further Downside Ahead if Sellers Keep the Upper Hand_1

Technical Analysis

USD/CHF reached a local high of 0.8476 on May 12 and has since entered a corrective phase without managing to post a new higher high. Instead, the pair has been forming a series of lower highs, potentially setting the stage for a deeper retracement. A descending trendline is emerging on the chart, and the pair recently reacted to the downside upon nearing the 100-period moving average around 0.8390—an area that aligns with this downward trendline. This confluence of technical resistance could reinforce a bearish outlook, with the next significant support potentially lying near the 0.8200 handle.

The RSI recently touched 63, still below overbought territory, which typically begins above 70. In trending markets, the RSI often hovers in neutral zones before aligning with the prevailing trend. If the current trend continues, these RSI levels may support further downside momentum. However, a strong breakout above the descending trendline would invalidate the current bearish setup, suggesting that bulls have regained control and may push the pair higher.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.8380

Target price: 0.8200

Stop loss: 0.8430

Validity: May 28, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

Japan's economy contracted more than expected in the first quarter, prompting Bank of Japan policymakers to urge caution on interest rate hikes amid increasing downside risks. Meanwhile, growing market expectations that the Bank of England may maintain high interest rates for a longer period could help limit losses for the pound.

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

193.675

Entry Price

198.580

189.800

207.059 -0.041 -0.02%

157.8

Pips

Profit

189.800

195.253

Exit Price

193.675

Entry Price

198.580

Fundamentals

During the early European trading session on Friday, GBPJPY continued to consolidate around 193.03. Despite the disappointing Japanese GDP data, JPYGBP remained strong.

Japan's economy shrank for the first time in a year, with the contraction exceeding market expectations. Preliminary data released by Japan's Cabinet Office on Friday showed that the country's GDP contracted by 0.2% QoQ in the first quarter of 2025, following a 0.6% expansion in the fourth quarter of 2024. The market had previously anticipated a decline of 0.1%. On a YoY basis, Japan's GDP fell by 0.7%, significantly lower than the previous figure of 2.2% and the market's expectation of -0.2%. However, the weak GDP data had little impact on the yen's exchange rate.

Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Toyoaki Nakamura urged caution on rate hikes. Known for his dovish stance, Nakamura warned that the Japanese economy is facing "increasing downside risks" and cautioned against "hasty" interest rate increases.

In his speech on the same day, he emphasized the risks of tightening policy amid slowing economic growth, noting that higher interest rates could "lag in suppressing consumption and investment."

Nakamura also highlighted the growing uncertainty from US tariff policies, which have already led Japanese companies to delay or scale back capital expenditure plans.

He warned that an escalation in trade tensions could trigger a "vicious cycle of falling demand and prices," thereby damaging economic growth and inflation.

On the other hand, market expectations are growing that the Bank of England may need to maintain high interest rates for longer than currently anticipated by the market, which could help limit the pound's short-term losses. According to Reuters, the market currently expects the Bank of England to cut rates by a total of 48.6 basis points by the end of this year, with no policy change expected at its next meeting in June.

Technical Analysis

The GBPJPY pair fell by 0.20% on Friday, maintaining a neutral trend overall. The short-term decline that began at 196.41 is likely to continue and bring further consolidation. However, as long as the support level at 190.22 holds, the exchange rate is expected to rebound.

If the rebound stalls at 196.41, it would indicate that the oscillating downward trend that started at 199.79 is still ongoing, with the next potential target being the recent low at 190.22.

However, if the exchange rate decisively breaks through the support level at 190.22, it could signal a reversal in the near-term trend, shifting the direction back to a downward trajectory.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 193.50

Target Price: 198.58

Stop Loss: 189.80

Valid Until: June 1, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 192.32/190.25/188.80

Resistance: 196.41/196.63/198.25

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The euro came under renewed pressure on Friday, with EUR/USD tumbling to near 1.1150 as strong U.S. inflation expectations and Fed rate stability bets boosted the U.S. dollar.

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.11500

Entry Price

1.09510

1.12800

1.16523 +0.00097 +0.08%

130.0

Pips

Loss

1.09510

1.12800

Exit Price

1.11500

Entry Price

1.12800

The euro lost ground against the U.S. dollar on Friday, sliding toward the 1.1150 level during North American trading, as a potent combination of stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation expectations and softening economic sentiment stoked demand for the greenback. This marked a stark reversal from the currency pair’s early-week gains, with markets now leaning toward further downside pressure in the near term.

At the heart of the U.S. dollar’s resurgence was the University of Michigan’s flash consumer sentiment survey for May, which showed inflation expectations jumping notably. One-year inflation expectations surged to 7.3%, up from 6.5% in April—an alarming signal for the Federal Reserve, which has consistently emphasized the importance of inflation dynamics in guiding its policy outlook.

The report also showed a sharp deterioration in consumer sentiment, with the headline Consumer Sentiment Index falling to 50.8—its lowest reading since June 2022. That marked the fifth consecutive decline in sentiment and underscored ongoing economic anxiety among households despite a resilient labor market.

Yet it was the inflation data that captured the most attention. Markets swiftly interpreted the uptick as a roadblock for any near-term Fed rate cuts. The CME FedWatch Tool now indicates a 91.8% probability that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at its June meeting, and a 65.1% chance of no change in July, reinforcing the case for prolonged monetary policy restraint.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback’s performance against a basket of major peers, climbed back above the 101.00 mark following the data, clawing back earlier losses. The dollar’s recovery drove EUR/USD lower, snapping the euro’s recent momentum.

Across the Atlantic, dovish commentary from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers deepened the euro’s sell-off. Speaking on Friday, ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks told Bloomberg that the central bank may proceed with “a couple” of interest rate cuts this year, emphasizing the need to evaluate policy “meeting by meeting” given prevailing global trade uncertainty and soft economic conditions.

The dovish tones followed a downward revision to the Eurozone’s first-quarter GDP, which now stands at 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, compared to an earlier 0.4% estimate. While employment growth remained resilient, rising 0.3% versus initial expectations of 0.1%, the downward GDP revision painted a picture of an economy struggling to gain traction amid global headwinds.

In a broader context, expectations for ECB easing have been bolstered by signs that inflation is gradually moving toward the central bank’s 2% target. With energy prices subdued and global demand faltering, analysts believe the ECB may act preemptively to shield the economy from stagnation. Traders are increasingly pricing in at least two more rate cuts by year-end, barring an inflationary shock.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD is showing signs of further weakness. The pair remains trapped within a bearish corrective channel and is trading below the key pivot zone of 1.12229, suggesting that bullish momentum remains fragile. Notably, the pair has failed to break above the 1.1250 resistance level—a key barrier aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the recent bullish leg between 1.0730 and 1.1572.

With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) failing to deliver a decisive bullish divergence and the pair trading beneath the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), technical pressure continues to skew to the downside.

A sustained break below 1.1150—a level that coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement—to open the door for further losses toward 1.1082 and potentially as low as 1.0951 in the coming sessions. As long as EUR/USD remains capped beneath 1.12229, the bearish scenario remains intact.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.1150

STOP LOSS: 1.1280

TAKE PROFIT: 1.0951

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

Gold prices slipped below $3,200 during Friday's European session as optimism surrounding a potential US-China trade breakthrough diminished safe-haven appeal.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3206.00

Entry Price

3120.00

3280.00

4210.41 +12.50 +0.30%

308.9

Pips

Profit

3120.00

3175.11

Exit Price

3206.00

Entry Price

3280.00

Gold prices came under renewed selling pressure on Friday, paring back much of the gains from the previous session’s recovery, as investor sentiment turned optimistic over global trade negotiations. The precious metal slid back below the $3,200 mark during early European trading, extending an intraday downtrend amid waning demand for traditional safe-haven assets.

At the heart of the market’s shift is progress on a tentative US-China trade truce. Both economic superpowers have agreed to sharply reduce tariffs and initiate a 90-day window aimed at finalizing a more comprehensive deal. Comments from US President Donald Trump further buoyed investor optimism after he hinted at productive talks with other key trading partners, including India, Japan, and South Korea. This optimism, however, has dulled demand for gold, which typically benefits from market uncertainty and geopolitical risk.

Even so, the broader macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape remains far from calm. Negotiators from Russia and Ukraine are holding peace talks in Istanbul — the first direct dialogue in three years — alongside a US delegation. But the absence of Russian President Vladimir Putin has already curbed expectations of any meaningful breakthrough. Simultaneously, Israel's military campaign in Gaza has intensified, with Thursday alone witnessing the deaths of at least 143 Palestinians in what is now one of the deadliest episodes in the conflict this year.

Such geopolitical tensions would typically bolster gold demand. However, Friday’s market action suggests that risk appetite, bolstered by trade optimism and slightly better-than-feared retail data, has temporarily overshadowed these global concerns.

Meanwhile, softening US inflation and consumer data released this week have reignited expectations for a series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. On Thursday, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand unexpectedly dropped 0.5% in April — its steepest decline since 2023 — building on Tuesday’s subdued Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The CPI rose at an annual pace of just 2.2%, its slowest since February 2021. These trends point to easing price pressures and may offer the Fed more room to pivot toward a more accommodative monetary policy.

The Department of Commerce also reported a slowdown in consumer spending, with retail sales rising just 0.1% in April — a sharp moderation from March’s upwardly revised 1.7% gain. While this further supports a dovish Fed outlook, it also raises concerns about the broader growth trajectory of the US economy, reinforcing forecasts of a sluggish expansion in coming quarters.

Despite the supportive macroeconomic backdrop for gold — especially a weakening US Dollar and declining Treasury yields — the metal has struggled to build upward momentum. The US Dollar has remained under pressure for a second straight session, reflecting the market’s conviction that the Fed may soon cut rates. Yet gold has not capitalized on this, highlighting the metal's current vulnerability to broader risk sentiment shifts.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, gold remains firmly ensnared in a bearish correction phase. The price continues to trade below the critical $3,260 resistance level and its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), reinforcing a broader downtrend bias. The failure to hold above $3,200 opens the door for a retest of the crucial $3,120 support zone — the level from which Thursday’s recovery initially sprung.

Analysts also note the development of a negative divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggesting waning bullish momentum despite prior price increases. This bearish RSI signal, coupled with the persistent price rejection at the upper boundary of a descending channel, adds to the probability of further declines in the near term.

As long as gold remains below the $3,260 resistance level, technical indicators point toward a continued bearish trend. A confirmed break below $3,200 could trigger an accelerated decline toward $3,120, with intermediate support expected around $3,180. Only a sustained rebound above $3,260 would negate this bearish setup and shift the short-term bias.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3206

STOP LOSS: 3280

TAKE PROFIT: 3120

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

WTI oil prices declined for the third straight session to $61.10, pressured by rising inventories and Iran deal speculation.

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

61.000

Entry Price

57.000

63.500

60.044 +0.235 +0.39%

250.0

Pips

Loss

57.000

63.508

Exit Price

61.000

Entry Price

63.500

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil extended its losing streak into a third consecutive session on Friday, slipping to around $61.10 a barrel in early European trade. Despite the persistent decline, prices are still on course for a modest weekly gain, as rekindled optimism surrounding US-China trade relations provides a counterweight to intensifying global supply concerns.

The interplay between bullish geopolitical developments and bearish supply fundamentals has left oil traders in a state of flux. While headlines around the long-embattled US-China trade dynamic helped lift sentiment earlier in the week, the crude market's upside potential continues to be capped by the specter of a resurgent Iranian oil supply and rising global inventories.

Market sentiment received a boost earlier this week after the United States and China—the world’s two largest oil consumers—announced a preliminary breakthrough in trade talks. According to official statements, the US has agreed to cut tariffs on Chinese imports from a punitive 145% to 30%. In return, China will lower its tariffs on American goods from 125% to 10%.

This bilateral gesture of economic de-escalation has injected a dose of confidence into global markets, raising hopes that trade flows and industrial activity will rebound—potentially reviving demand for crude oil, which has remained subdued in recent quarters amid fears of a global slowdown.

“This deal has the potential to restore investor confidence in the global growth story, which had been deeply eroded by prolonged tariff tensions,” noted Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “Oil, being the most demand-sensitive asset in the macro complex, has responded accordingly—though gains remain tentative.”

However, any relief rally in oil remains undercut by speculation that a new US-Iran nuclear agreement could soon materialize, potentially ending years of sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports. President Donald Trump hinted earlier in the week that negotiations were progressing and that Iran had “sort of” accepted the terms of a renewed framework.

While no formal agreement has been reached, and several contentious issues reportedly remain unresolved, the mere possibility of Iranian barrels re-entering the market has forced traders to reassess supply risks. According to ING analysts cited by Reuters, the successful implementation of a deal could allow Iran to ramp up its crude production by as much as 400,000 barrels per day, further exacerbating concerns of oversupply.

In addition to the Iran factor, the International Energy Agency (IEA) added fuel to bearish sentiment by revising its global supply forecast upwards by 380,000 barrels per day. The revision reflects stronger-than-expected output from Saudi Arabia and other members of the OPEC+ alliance, many of whom have been steadily easing their voluntary production curbs amid improved fiscal balances and competitive pressures.

Further weighing on the market was an unexpected rise in US crude stockpiles, as revealed by the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. Inventories increased last week, defying analyst expectations of a drawdown, and signaling tepid domestic demand or increased refinery maintenance. This inventory build, coupled with looming additions from both sanctioned and unsanctioned producers, reinforces the notion that supply continues to outstrip demand.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the price of WTI crude appears to be approaching a critical resistance level. A horizontal ceiling around the $62.00 mark is likely to attract selling pressure. This zone has historically acted as a barrier, capping previous attempts at bullish breakouts. If the price fails to convincingly breach this level, a corrective move lower could be imminent. In that scenario, downside targets emerge around the $57.00 handle—marking a key support area where buyers have previously stepped in.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL WTI

ENTRY PRICE: 61.00

STOP LOSS: 63.50

TAKE PROFIT: 57.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

A solid move above this level would reinforce the bullish setup and increase the probability of further gains.

BUY BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

103950.0

Entry Price

108000.0

100000.0

91660.8 +2106.0 +2.35%

1781.2

Pips

Profit

100000.0

105731.2

Exit Price

103950.0

Entry Price

108000.0

During his appearance at the Consensus 2025 conference in Toronto, Eric Trump—son of former President Donald Trump—publicly voiced his support for Bitcoin, referring to it as “digital gold” and praising its role as a reliable store of value. Speaking on a well-attended panel, Trump described how his perception of cryptocurrencies has evolved over time. Although his career has traditionally revolved around real estate, he explained that recent political shifts have driven him to explore the crypto world more seriously.

On Tuesday, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced notable outflows totaling $96.14 million, with the bulk of the withdrawals coming from Fidelity’s FBTC and Hashdex’s DEFI funds, which recorded daily outflows of $22.9 million and $2.6 million, respectively, according to data from SoSoValue.

The remaining ETFs showed no activity in terms of flows, with no additional inflows or outflows. For BlackRock’s IBIT, the absence of movement ended a remarkable 20-session inflow streak during which the leading ETF had attracted over $5.2 billion.

Until May 9, Bitcoin ETFs had recorded four consecutive weeks of net inflows—setting a new record in 2025. Among them, IBIT had emerged as the top performer, even outpacing inflows into the largest gold ETF for the year.

As of Tuesday, the combined net inflows across all U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had reached $41 billion since their January 2024 debut. At the same time, assets under management (AUM) across these vehicles have surpassed $120 billion—a historic milestone for the industry.

Investor interest in Bitcoin ETFs is often seen as a proxy for broader market sentiment. While flows have recently stalled, macroeconomic factors are likely to remain a key influence on Bitcoin’s price direction in the near term, with other variables gradually coming into play.

JPMorgan Chase, one of the most influential global investment banks, recently suggested that Bitcoin may outperform gold in the second half of 2025. The bank attributes this to rising corporate demand and growing state-level adoption of Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset in the U.S.

In a client note cited by The Block on Thursday, JPMorgan expressed a constructive outlook on Bitcoin (BTC), highlighting how institutional capital flows and a favorable macro backdrop are working in favor of the leading cryptocurrency.

Historically, gold has been the go-to hedge for investors during times of economic uncertainty. However, JPMorgan’s research suggests Bitcoin is rapidly emerging as a credible alternative.

Analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou pointed out a notable shift in the "debasement trade"—a strategy where investors buy gold and Bitcoin to protect against the erosion of fiat currencies. While both assets benefited from this dynamic late last year, the trend has since diverged.

“From mid-February to mid-April, gold rose at Bitcoin’s expense,” Panigirtzoglou wrote. “But over the past three weeks, we’ve seen the opposite—Bitcoin has been climbing as gold gives up ground.” A New Bullish Leg Could Unfold If Bitcoin Breaks Above Key Resistance_1

A New Bullish Leg Could Unfold If Bitcoin Breaks Above Key Resistance_1

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin has recently found support above the 100- and 200-period moving averages on the 1-hour chart, currently located around 103,358 and 102,798, respectively. This zone could act as a launchpad for the next bullish impulse, especially as institutional adoption appears to be reigniting upward momentum from the $93,000 level. Furthermore, the support area near $101,000 has consistently held firm, helping to fuel upward movements from this region. If the price manages to hold above this support, we could see a renewed push toward the $107,000 resistance level.

The RSI currently sits near 56, indicating neutral momentum without signs of overbought conditions. This leaves room for additional upside if the price can decisively break above the $104,000 resistance level—a barrier that has capped recent rallies. A solid move above this level would reinforce the bullish setup and increase the probability of further gains. Conversely, a decisive break below the local support zone could trigger a deeper corrective phase in the short term.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 103810

Target price: 108000

Stop loss: 99000

Validity: May 26, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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