GBP/USD Under Pressure as Manufacturing Weakness Offsets UK Services Recovery

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The British Pound fell for a fourth straight session against the US Dollar on Thursday, slipping below 1.3450 as strong U.S. PMI data buoyed the Greenback.

SELL GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.34250

Entry Price

1.33000

1.34800

1.33591 -0.00116 -0.09%

6.0

Pips

Profit

1.33000

1.34190

Exit Price

1.34250

Entry Price

1.34800

The British Pound extended its decline against the U.S. Dollar on Thursday, marking its fourth consecutive daily loss, as robust U.S. economic data propelled the Greenback higher while sterling struggled with mixed domestic signals. The GBP/USD pair slipped below the psychologically important 1.3450 threshold, briefly touching 1.3435 during New York trade, as traders positioned cautiously ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the closely watched Jackson Hole Symposium.

The Dollar’s strength was underpinned by a raft of upbeat U.S. data that reaffirmed the resilience of the world’s largest economy despite a slowing labor market. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against six major peers, surged to a fresh weekly high near 98.50, extending its upward momentum.

Fresh preliminary PMI readings from S&P Global for August highlighted broad-based expansion. The Composite PMI rose to 55.4 from July’s 55.1, comfortably in growth territory. Notably, the Manufacturing PMI rebounded sharply to 53.3 from 49.8, not only beating forecasts of 49.5 but also returning to expansion after a contractionary July. The Services PMI printed at 55.4, only marginally softer than July’s 55.7 yet still well above expectations of 54.2, pointing to continued strength in the dominant services sector.

The upbeat PMI figures stood in contrast to labor market data, which showed signs of softening. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 235,000, the highest in two months, exceeding both the prior week’s 224,000 and consensus expectations of 225,000. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index tumbled into negative territory, sliding to -0.3 from July’s 15.9, missing expectations of 7. The divergence underscored the complexity of the U.S. outlook: while the broader economy maintains solid momentum, pockets of weakness suggest the Fed may tread carefully on tightening policy further.

Across the Atlantic, UK data painted a similarly uneven picture. Preliminary S&P Global PMIs for August showed the Composite index climbing to 53.0, the strongest reading since April and up from 51.5 in July. Services activity surprised to the upside, holding steady at 53.6 against expectations for a slowdown to 51.8. However, the UK’s manufacturing downturn deepened, with the Manufacturing PMI slipping to 47.3, down from 48.0 and well below the expansionary threshold of 50. The figures reinforced the narrative of a services-led UK economy, but the ongoing contraction in manufacturing continues to weigh on sterling sentiment.

Market participants remain firmly focused on Powell’s upcoming speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. Investors will scrutinize his remarks for clues on the Fed’s policy trajectory heading into the final quarter of the year. The stronger-than-expected U.S. PMIs have already reignited speculation that policymakers may maintain a more hawkish stance, keeping the dollar well supported. By contrast, the Bank of England faces a trickier balancing act, with a stagnant manufacturing sector and sticky inflation constraining its room for maneuver.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD continues to trade with a bearish short-term bias. The pair’s slide below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50) has amplified downward pressure, reinforcing the case for further weakness. Momentum indicators echo this view: the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which had earlier corrected from oversold territory, has resumed its decline, suggesting the bears remain in control.

Should the pair extend losses, immediate support is seen at 1.3400, followed by the more significant 1.3350 level. A decisive break below these thresholds could open the way toward 1.3300 in the near term. On the upside, resistance lies at 1.3500, with stronger barriers near 1.3550, where a recovery would be required to neutralize the current bearish outlook.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GBPUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3425

STOP LOSS: 1.3480

TAKE PROFIT: 1.3300

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Our base-case Ethereum price projection targets a retest of US$4,800 and a potential record high, though a near-term pullback remains likely before the next leg higher.

BUY ETH-USDT

EXP

EXPIRED

3800.00

Entry Price

4950.00

3400.00

3125.91 +41.35 +1.34%

Pips

EXPIRED

3400.00

4280.93

Exit Price

3800.00

Entry Price

4950.00

Fundamentals

Ethereum printed a four-year peak last week. While a modest retracement has followed, bulls retain control. Net inflows into spot ETH ETFs, improving technicals and a rotational shift across crypto markets all point to additional upside. A sustained advance could lift spot prices to US$4,800.

Currently, ETHUSD spot reference is around US$4,261. Bulls have defended the US$4,000-4,450 demand zone and secured the highest weekly close since 2021 near US$4,475.

As of 14 August, spot-based ETH ETFs have posted eight consecutive daily inflows, attracting nearly US$3.7 billion over the streak—including roughly US$640 million on the final day. Although a modest outflow was recorded on 15 August, the underlying momentum remains constructive.

A cyclical rotation within the asset complex is proving constructive for the broader crypto rally. Ethereum's relative strength has been the primary catalyst behind the recent alt-coin bid, while Bitcoin Dominance has retraced to around 59%.

Three catalysts underpin a move to US$4,800:

1.ETF demand remains a tailwind. Eight straight days of robust inflows have turned cumulative net additions into the multi-billion-dollar range since spring, underscoring persistent institutional appetite.

2.Technical set-up is constructive. A weekly close above US$4,450 keeps the next resistance cluster of US$4,700-4,800 (just shy of the all-time high at around US$4,878) in focus. Price has reclaimed the US$4,450-4,550 supply zone and closed the week at a four-year high. Initial support is expected between US$4,000 and US$4,150.

3.Breadth and relative strength are improving. As BTC dominance ebbs, capital is rotating into large-cap tokens; ETH's leadership is evident as the ETH/BTC ratio and ETF flows jointly reach 2025 highs. Historically, this combination has preceded ETH outperformance.

Demand Surge Meets Technical Breakout, Bulls Face Make-or-Break Inflection_1

Technical Analysis

Despite the recent pullback, the bullish structure remains intact. Provided the US$3,853-3,750 demand shelf holds and ETF inflows resume after any near-term aberration, the path of least resistance is a break toward US$4,700-4,800. A daily close back below US$4,150 would invalidate the thesis and open the door to a deeper retracement.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3800

Target Price: 4950

Stop Loss: 3400

Valid Until: September 5, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 4064/3938/3745

Resistance: 4425/4585/4791

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The New Zealand Dollar tumbled to a four-month low after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a widely anticipated rate cut but signaled deeper divisions within its board, raising the prospect of more aggressive easing ahead.

SELL NZDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.58200

Entry Price

0.57000

0.59200

0.57830 -0.00210 -0.36%

9.7

Pips

Profit

0.57000

0.58103

Exit Price

0.58200

Entry Price

0.59200

The New Zealand Dollar emerged as the weakest among the G8 currencies, extending a sharp selloff after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered what markets are describing as a “dovish cut.” The central bank lowered its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.00%, in line with expectations, but the details of the decision rattled investors.

Two members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted in favor of a more aggressive half-point cut, underscoring the growing divide within the board. That hint of deeper easing ahead triggered a broad-based slide in the Kiwi, with NZD/USD tumbling more than 1% to hit a four-month low at 0.5815.

The move reflects a shift in market perception: what had been considered a routine trim to the OCR now appears to be the beginning of a potentially larger easing cycle. For traders, the messaging was unambiguously dovish, with the RBNZ flagging that risks to growth remain skewed to the downside.

Governor Hawkesby acknowledged that economic growth had essentially stalled in recent months. Softer household spending, coupled with a cooling labor market, painted a picture of a domestic economy struggling under the weight of high prices and global uncertainty. The RBNZ statement noted that “inflation remains elevated but forward-looking pressures are easing,” a line that markets interpreted as a green light for further policy accommodation.

Interestingly, Hawkesby emphasized that fiscal consolidation—specifically, declining government spending—would play a role in curbing inflationary pressures. This framing gives the bank space to ease further without appearing reckless. However, the RBNZ is walking a tightrope: cutting too deeply risks undermining financial stability, while holding steady could allow growth to falter further.

In my view, the balance of risks now tilts firmly toward additional cuts, with a 50 basis point reduction in the next two meetings no longer off the table. Markets will likely begin to price in such a scenario quickly, especially if upcoming data confirm the picture of a stalling economy.

On the other side of the trade, the US Dollar has found renewed support. Investors remain wary amid sour global sentiment, with all eyes fixed on the Federal Reserve’s next steps. The release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes later this week could provide clarity on the growing divergence among policymakers, but the real market-moving moment will likely come on Friday when Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole symposium.

Powell’s remarks will be pivotal. The Fed is grappling with a difficult backdrop: a surprisingly weak Nonfarm Payrolls print earlier this month raised questions about the strength of the US labor market, while the looming risk of tariffs and trade uncertainty adds another layer of complexity. Traders want to know whether Powell is now open to rate cuts—a shift that could cap the Dollar’s recent gains—or whether he remains focused on inflation, keeping policy tighter for longer.

Technical Analaysis

From a technical standpoint, NZD/USD remains entrenched in a bearish trend. The pair’s decline in recent sessions reflects sustained downward momentum, with price action holding below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), a level that continues to act as resistance.

There is, however, a short-term signal worth noting: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently dipped into oversold territory and has since shown a mild rebound. This suggests the possibility of a temporary corrective bounce as the market digests the latest drop. Still, any recovery is likely to be capped by resistance near 0.5900, with the broader downtrend intact.

The next major support sits around 0.5780, and a break below that level could accelerate losses toward the 0.5700 handle. On the upside, bulls would need to reclaim 0.6000 to meaningfully challenge the current bearish bias—a scenario that looks increasingly unlikely without a significant shift in macro drivers.