Demand Surge Meets Technical Breakout, Bulls Face Make-or-Break Inflection

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Our base-case Ethereum price projection targets a retest of US$4,800 and a potential record high, though a near-term pullback remains likely before the next leg higher.

BUY ETH-USDT

EXP

EXPIRED

3800.00

Entry Price

4950.00

3400.00

3141.99 +115.03 +3.80%

Pips

EXPIRED

3400.00

4280.93

Exit Price

3800.00

Entry Price

4950.00

Fundamentals

Ethereum printed a four-year peak last week. While a modest retracement has followed, bulls retain control. Net inflows into spot ETH ETFs, improving technicals and a rotational shift across crypto markets all point to additional upside. A sustained advance could lift spot prices to US$4,800.

Currently, ETHUSD spot reference is around US$4,261. Bulls have defended the US$4,000-4,450 demand zone and secured the highest weekly close since 2021 near US$4,475.

As of 14 August, spot-based ETH ETFs have posted eight consecutive daily inflows, attracting nearly US$3.7 billion over the streak—including roughly US$640 million on the final day. Although a modest outflow was recorded on 15 August, the underlying momentum remains constructive.

A cyclical rotation within the asset complex is proving constructive for the broader crypto rally. Ethereum's relative strength has been the primary catalyst behind the recent alt-coin bid, while Bitcoin Dominance has retraced to around 59%.

Three catalysts underpin a move to US$4,800:

1.ETF demand remains a tailwind. Eight straight days of robust inflows have turned cumulative net additions into the multi-billion-dollar range since spring, underscoring persistent institutional appetite.

2.Technical set-up is constructive. A weekly close above US$4,450 keeps the next resistance cluster of US$4,700-4,800 (just shy of the all-time high at around US$4,878) in focus. Price has reclaimed the US$4,450-4,550 supply zone and closed the week at a four-year high. Initial support is expected between US$4,000 and US$4,150.

3.Breadth and relative strength are improving. As BTC dominance ebbs, capital is rotating into large-cap tokens; ETH's leadership is evident as the ETH/BTC ratio and ETF flows jointly reach 2025 highs. Historically, this combination has preceded ETH outperformance.

Demand Surge Meets Technical Breakout, Bulls Face Make-or-Break Inflection_1

Technical Analysis

Despite the recent pullback, the bullish structure remains intact. Provided the US$3,853-3,750 demand shelf holds and ETF inflows resume after any near-term aberration, the path of least resistance is a break toward US$4,700-4,800. A daily close back below US$4,150 would invalidate the thesis and open the door to a deeper retracement.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3800

Target Price: 4950

Stop Loss: 3400

Valid Until: September 5, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 4064/3938/3745

Resistance: 4425/4585/4791

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The New Zealand Dollar tumbled to a four-month low after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a widely anticipated rate cut but signaled deeper divisions within its board, raising the prospect of more aggressive easing ahead.

SELL NZDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.58200

Entry Price

0.57000

0.59200

0.57762 +0.00008 +0.01%

9.7

Pips

Profit

0.57000

0.58103

Exit Price

0.58200

Entry Price

0.59200

The New Zealand Dollar emerged as the weakest among the G8 currencies, extending a sharp selloff after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered what markets are describing as a “dovish cut.” The central bank lowered its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.00%, in line with expectations, but the details of the decision rattled investors.

Two members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted in favor of a more aggressive half-point cut, underscoring the growing divide within the board. That hint of deeper easing ahead triggered a broad-based slide in the Kiwi, with NZD/USD tumbling more than 1% to hit a four-month low at 0.5815.

The move reflects a shift in market perception: what had been considered a routine trim to the OCR now appears to be the beginning of a potentially larger easing cycle. For traders, the messaging was unambiguously dovish, with the RBNZ flagging that risks to growth remain skewed to the downside.

Governor Hawkesby acknowledged that economic growth had essentially stalled in recent months. Softer household spending, coupled with a cooling labor market, painted a picture of a domestic economy struggling under the weight of high prices and global uncertainty. The RBNZ statement noted that “inflation remains elevated but forward-looking pressures are easing,” a line that markets interpreted as a green light for further policy accommodation.

Interestingly, Hawkesby emphasized that fiscal consolidation—specifically, declining government spending—would play a role in curbing inflationary pressures. This framing gives the bank space to ease further without appearing reckless. However, the RBNZ is walking a tightrope: cutting too deeply risks undermining financial stability, while holding steady could allow growth to falter further.

In my view, the balance of risks now tilts firmly toward additional cuts, with a 50 basis point reduction in the next two meetings no longer off the table. Markets will likely begin to price in such a scenario quickly, especially if upcoming data confirm the picture of a stalling economy.

On the other side of the trade, the US Dollar has found renewed support. Investors remain wary amid sour global sentiment, with all eyes fixed on the Federal Reserve’s next steps. The release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes later this week could provide clarity on the growing divergence among policymakers, but the real market-moving moment will likely come on Friday when Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole symposium.

Powell’s remarks will be pivotal. The Fed is grappling with a difficult backdrop: a surprisingly weak Nonfarm Payrolls print earlier this month raised questions about the strength of the US labor market, while the looming risk of tariffs and trade uncertainty adds another layer of complexity. Traders want to know whether Powell is now open to rate cuts—a shift that could cap the Dollar’s recent gains—or whether he remains focused on inflation, keeping policy tighter for longer.

Technical Analaysis

From a technical standpoint, NZD/USD remains entrenched in a bearish trend. The pair’s decline in recent sessions reflects sustained downward momentum, with price action holding below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), a level that continues to act as resistance.

There is, however, a short-term signal worth noting: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently dipped into oversold territory and has since shown a mild rebound. This suggests the possibility of a temporary corrective bounce as the market digests the latest drop. Still, any recovery is likely to be capped by resistance near 0.5900, with the broader downtrend intact.

The next major support sits around 0.5780, and a break below that level could accelerate losses toward the 0.5700 handle. On the upside, bulls would need to reclaim 0.6000 to meaningfully challenge the current bearish bias—a scenario that looks increasingly unlikely without a significant shift in macro drivers.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL NZDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.5820

STOP LOSS: 0.5920

TAKE PROFIT: 0.5700

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Central Bank

Summary:

The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC)'s July meeting provide the rhetorical scaffolding for next week's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Gold appears to be carving out a cyclical floor. A confirmed base would open a fresh leg toward the US$3,450 resistance cluster.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3341.67

Entry Price

3450.00

3272.00

4211.70 +13.79 +0.33%

416.5

Pips

Profit

3272.00

3383.32

Exit Price

3341.67

Entry Price

3450.00