Although there is short-term pressure, it is not advisable to be overly bearish.

Commodity

Summary:

In the short term, gold prices are affected by the transmission path of war and inflation, and the oscillating pattern remains unchanged. It is not advisable to be overly bearish in the short term.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

PENDING

4451.00

Entry Price

4520.00

4410.00

4474.96 +40.56 +0.91%

Pips

PENDING

4410.00

Exit Price

4451.00

Entry Price

4520.00

Fundamentals

Recently, gold has been caught in a cycle of escalating and de-escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The US airstrikes on the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's attacks on the US fleet and Kuwait, which have once again escalated the conflict, have not brought the traditional safe-haven buying to gold. Instead, soaring oil prices and rising inflation expectations have increased expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, putting additional downward pressure on gold prices.

Although negotiations between Iran and the United States have stalled, diplomatic efforts by all parties to de-escalate the conflict continue, the impact of the war has been gradually diminishing, and the resulting upward risk of inflation is not expected to last. From a medium- to long-term perspective, gold still has strong investment value. Although it is under pressure in the short term, it may be boosted at any time by good news of a de-escalation of the conflict, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish.

Technical aspects

Although there is short-term pressure, it is not advisable to be overly bearish.

Looking at the 1-hour chart, XAUUSD has been trending downwards recently, but the short-term lows have risen, forming an HL pattern. Gold prices have found support after the short-term decline, and the RSI indicator has also rebounded from the oversold zone to above 50. The possibility of gold prices rising again cannot be ruled out, and it is expected to retest the 4500 level.

The main strategy is to buy low and sell high. You can try to go long when the price pulls back to around 4450 and stabilizes, with a target of around 4520 and a stop loss below 4420.

Trading advice

Trading direction: Long

Entry position: 4451

Target price: 4520

Stop loss level: 4410

Downside support levels: 4420/4400

Upward resistance levels: 4500/4530

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