OPEC production data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) only includes crude oil production data.
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Kevin Du
Despite Western sanctions and volatile prices, Russian oil exports proved resilient last year. The global oil market may face different challenges in 2023.
Regulators face struggle to balance demands for upping employees' salaries.
Samantha Luan
Devin Wang
Cohen
A potential U.S. recession and tough comparisons to a stellar 2022 are weighing on the prospects of energy stocks delivering an encore to last year's stunning run, despite valuations that are seen as still comparatively cheap.
Alex
Following a strong upside halt on Wednesday, AUDUSD stalled after a quick retreat when bulls failed to sustain a stand above the 0.7000 psychological mark and were stopped at the 200-week SMA.
UK data show further signs of a labor market reversal, with employment falling but wages rising faster. While wage growth remains largely positive, the real wage growth rate remains negative when adjusted for real prices.
While a sharp increase in U.S. crude inventories for the second week in a row is giving the bulls pause, data showed that China's crude oil demand jumped nearly 1 million barrels per day in November, rising to a new high since February. The International Energy Agency (IEA) Administrator Fatih Birol said Thursday that the energy market may be tighter in 2023; in addition, investors believe that the Fed will slow the pace of interest rate hikes and other news to boost the economy and promote energy demand, helping to extend the rise in crude oil prices.
In the short and medium term, optimistic macro expectations support nonferrous prices, but the pace of accumulation accelerated or limit the further upward height.
The global economy may have come out of a severe recession lasting for a long time in the early days, which is not good news for gold
Yesterday’s CPI showed that inflation is cooling down. The U.S. CPI in December was -0.1% MoM, 6.5% YoY, down for the sixth consecutive month, and the core CPI was 5.7% YoY.
Gold fell slightly on Tuesday for the second day in a row, remaining sluggish as it entered the European session and further away from the previous day's high of US$1,928 since April. Gold is expected to return soon as there are bear orders for unfinished tests at US$1,842. Nevertheless, gold prices have started the year strongly; With the support of China's reopening, both investment and physical demand supported the gold price in 2023.
The dollar index fell to a new low of more than seven months, helping the gold price rise to a high of nearly eight months. As the "spring" is stretched too long, chasing a bullish trend is easy to "hurt".
In terms of trend, the oil price rallies again into the upper resistance range, with the need for adjustment in the short term. If there is no further favorable stimulus, it is difficult to continue the big rise in the short term.
While a sharp increase in U.S. crude inventories for the second week in a row is giving the bulls pause, data showed that China's crude oil demand jumped nearly 1 million barrels per day in November, rising to a new high since February. The International Energy Agency (IEA) Administrator Fatih Birol said Thursday that the energy market may be tighter in 2023; in addition, investors believe that the Fed will slow the pace of interest rate hikes and other news to boost the economy and promote energy demand, helping to extend the rise in crude oil prices.
WTI crude oil surged higher yesterday and fell below $80 per barrel again, cooling the market's bullish sentiment for several days. The pickup in API inventory data this week also partially reinforced the weakness in oil prices. Our view remains unchanged that the trend rally is not over and oil price correction may be limited.
The Chinese New Year is approaching, so try to manage the risk when following the trend to go long.
The market remains highly uncertain in 2023, but the probability of a unilateral decline in the USDX is low currently.
The dollar has not fallen further since December but has fluctuated in a narrow range at the bottom. For now, the shape of the bottom is relatively solid. With the accumulated energy is sufficient, the rebound may be imminent.
The performance of the US economy will gradually improve in the first quarter of 2023, and the Dollar Index may be expected to bottom out.
The recent U.S. monthly data is weak, and the risk of recession will get closer. Also, the traded rate hike slowdown by the market in the early stage becomes less effective due to the high threshold of the Fed's rate cuts. Thus, it is necessary to be concerned about the possibility of the USD turning bullish in the middle term.
Inflation has fallen slightly, but the main market thread may shift from fighting inflation to trading in a material recession, and it is better to watch out for stagflationary pressures in the Eurozone going forward.
Despite the Jitters the FOMC has given to the dollar, EU is likely headed south as the Fed continues to fuel its intent on curbing inflation.
Eurozone CPI slowed to 9.2% in December, below expectations of 10.0%. Core CPI rose from 5.0% to 5.2%, above expectations of 5.2%.
In the four-hour time frame, the euro has been in an uptrend line, which has been reliably broken and is pulling back.
Immediately after the emergence of reports that the Japanese central bank will re-evaluate its monetary policy this week with more stringent steps.The price of the Japanese yen jumped strongly against the rest of the other major currencies, without exception.In the case of the USD/JPY currency pair, it moved downwards and strongly towards the support level of 127.45, the lowest for the currency pair in eight months.The week's trading closed around 127.85, waiting for anything new.
Cautious stability still dominates the performance of the USD/JPY currency pair.The bulls' control of the trend will not increase, according to the performance on the daily chart below, without moving above the resistance 135.00.On the other hand, breaking the support level 131.30 will be important for control.Bears are in the trend, and whatever the results of the US inflation numbers today, I still prefer buying the currency pair from every downward level.
The current market is overly traded, and we should be wary of a stampede after the market's overly consistent expectations fall through.
USDJPY continued to break down from its consolidation range and fell to its lowest level since the end of May in the early European session. The pair is currently trading above the 128.00 handle and seems vulnerable to extending its downtrend. Meanwhile, sharply slower U.S. inflation data may continue to push the USD lower, thus favoring the JPY.
United Kingdom Fundamental news leads the market.
UK data show further signs of a labor market reversal, with employment falling but wages rising faster. While wage growth remains largely positive, the real wage growth rate remains negative when adjusted for real prices.
GBPUSD extended previous gains above 1.2110 as risk-on sentiment declined. General weakness in the USD supported the pair as investors assessed Fed rate hike expectations and Bank of England comments on inflation.
The GBPUSD failed to continue the strong rebound of the previous two trading days, falling to 1.2130 in the day, indicating the cautious attitude of the market before the speeches of Bank of England (BOE) Bailey and Federal Reserve Powell. Meanwhile, on a tepid risk keynote, the USD tried to rebound to limit the GBPUSD's continued upward movement.
Following a strong upside halt on Wednesday, AUDUSD stalled after a quick retreat when bulls failed to sustain a stand above the 0.7000 psychological mark and were stopped at the 200-week SMA.
The monthly inflation report showed that CPI fell to 6.9% in November, although the quarterly inflation data had a greater impact. The market is looking for some clues as to when the Reserve Bank of Australia may end its current tightening cycle. At its December meeting, the RBA raised interest rates by a modest 25 basis points for the third consecutive time.
AUDUSD ticked down 0.11% to 0.69046 during the European session.
Australia's CPI rose to 7.3% YoY in November from 6.9%, above expectations of 7.2%. The largest contributors to annual growth in November were housing, food and non-alcoholic beverages, transportation, furniture, and entertainment and culture. Michelle Marquardt, head of ABS Price Statistics, said annual growth for the month was 7.3%, compared with 6.9% in October and 7.3% in September, indicating continued inflationary pressures.
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Gold - Fundamental Drivers
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OPEC production data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) only includes crude oil production data.