OPEC production data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) only includes crude oil production data.
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Investors who earned easy money with high-risk bonds invented after the financial crisis are being forced to accept that the rules have changed: they may not get paid.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan.
Samantha Luan
Devin
Damon
European FX markets are opening up to a better risk environment. This looks to be a function of both the U.S. debt ceiling deal making it through Congress and a more relaxed Fed. Even Asian currencies are rallying.
Samantha Luan
USDCAD accelerated higher after breaking above its major bearish trend line near 1.3505. Earlier on Thursday, bulls continued to move higher amid widespread USD strength, hitting the 1.3600 handle at the highest level in three weeks. We believe that the USD will not stop rising because the market's current negotiations around the U.S. debt ceiling will continue to push up risk aversion.
Before the OPEC meeting, crude oil was under selling pressure as there were signs of disagreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia over a cut in production. Saudi Arabia accuses Russia of violating its production plans to restrict exports to other countries that have imposed bans on its energy goods.
Limited space for up and down, suggesting buying low and selling high within 71-74.
Bitcoin closed the month of May at $27,210, with an overall return of -7.2% for the month of May. The market is currently expecting that historical monthly returns indicate that Bitcoin prices may continue to fall in the next quarter. However, from a technical chart perspective, does the market's failure to break the low point of wave 4 imply the imminent start of upward impulse waves?
Both bulls and bears have opportunities in the short term. Traders can keep buying the dip in the medium and long term.
Focus on support around 1935 intraday, where aggressive traders can rely on the position to test long with light stocks.
Focus on the APD small non-farm payrolls tonight, and we can participate in holding long positions after pullbacks.
Focus on tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls data, which will be the opportunities for both bulls and bears.
Before the OPEC meeting, crude oil was under selling pressure as there were signs of disagreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia over a cut in production. Saudi Arabia accuses Russia of violating its production plans to restrict exports to other countries that have imposed bans on its energy goods.
Limited space for up and down, suggesting buying low and selling high within 71-74.
Oil prices could see a new round of gains in early June.
The OPEC weekend ministerial meeting needs attention, which may be related to the trend of oil prices.
The DXY price has finally broken below 102, indicating weakness in the US dollar.
The current financial market readjustment is causing investors to re-evaluate their strategies and consider the impact of the Fed's rate-hike cycle.
The DXY is poised for potential volatility as the market awaits the GDP data release on Thursday. The two potential outcomes will determine the direction of the market movement. While the technical analysis suggests a bearish market sentiment, a bullish reversal could also be possible.
Based on the current analysis, the US Dollar Index is expected to continue trading in a bullish zone, with traders eyeing the 103.610 mark as a key resistance level. The index's ability to stay above the pivotal level of 103.025 has fueled optimism among investors, suggesting further upward momentum. However, caution should be exercised, as a breach below 103.025 could signal a potential shift towards bearish sentiment.
In the world of currency trading, the EUR/USD pair has been a focal point for traders seeking profitable opportunities. Recent developments in the market indicate that the trading instrument is likely to rise to the nearest resistance area and subsequently begin its decline. This article delves into the factors influencing this prediction and provides insights for traders looking to navigate the current market dynamics.
The EUR/USD currency pair is poised to continue its bearish trajectory in the forthcoming week, supported by a combination of technical analysis and fundamental factors.
The EURUSD remained pessimistic on Tuesday to cope with the recovery of risk aversion. The asset's recent actions still have no direction, and it has remained in the range of 1.0942-1.1095 for the fourth consecutive week. Breaking through any range will generate new direction signals.
Strong inflation and spending data in the report seems to have boosted the U.S. dollar despite weak U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter. EURUSD came under bearish pressure again on Thursday and fell below the 1.1000 handle in the New York session. From a technical perspective, the overall trend remains upward.
The recent breakthrough of the important resistance convergence in the USD/JPY pair, along with positive developments such as the US debt ceiling agreement and strong economic data, indicate a potential upward trajectory. Technical indicators, including trendline breakouts, bullish divergences, and respected support levels, support the bullish bias.
Japanese consumer prices accelerated in April, with CPI accelerating from 3.2% to 3.5%. Core CPI rose from 3.1% to 3.4%. The indicator has been above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 13 consecutive months, indicating continued inflationary pressures. Despite these inflationary pressures, there are no clear signs that the BOJ is ready to exit its ultra-easy monetary policy.
Before breaking the key resistance, further possible appreciation of USDJPY will be unstable.
USDJPY climbed to 138.91 before the New York session on Tuesday, the highest level since May 28. Subsequently, the Markit U.S. service industry and manufacturing PMI in May, which recorded mixed results, put the USDJPY on the defensive against bulls. We have always believed that prices should return to the average before they are pushed up further.
Recently, the GBPUSD gained bullish momentum above the resistance level of 1.2500 and climbed to around 1.2660. The market is now waiting for the decision of the policy meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday. The probability of raising the interest rate by 25 basis points has been agreed by the market. What is uncertain is the forward-looking guidance of the Bank of England and the voting proportion.
Hedge funds are beginning to wonder whether the GBP's rally could last longer after it unexpectedly became the best-performing currency in the Group of Ten this year.
The US dollar is currently facing significant challenges against other major currencies, with traders eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve's announcement regarding the end of its hiking cycle.
GBP/USD suffered a notable decline subsequent to the Bank of England's decision to raise interest rates, driven by concerns over inflation. The US dollar's strength amidst uncertainties further contributed to the pair's downward trajectory. From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD pair has breached key support levels, indicating the possibility of continued bearish movement
U.S. headline CPI slowed to 4.9% in April, down from an expected 5.0%. Core CPI slowed from 5.6% to 5.5%, which was in line with expectations.
Since late February, the AUD has been quite directionless and seems to be waiting for the catalyst to break through its range and further rise or fall. This week's data failed to provide this, but last week's weak Australian employment data may continue to drag down the AUD, which offers great trading opportunities for investors.
United States' significant events CPI led the market.
The Australian dollar is currently facing downward pressure due to a combination of factors, including a strengthening US dollar, concerns over a global economic slowdown, and signs of China's economic recovery losing momentum. While weaker-than-expected US economic data has raised expectations of a potential change in the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle, the AUD has struggled to regain strength. Investors and traders are closely monitoring.
FTM-USDT Trend Tracking Strategy
+394.88%
Annualized Return
81.38%
Max Drawdown
Low Risk
AVAX-USDT Trend Tracking Strategy
+201.16%
Annualized Return
77.02%
Max Drawdown
Low Risk
ADA-USDT Trend Tracking Strategy
+78.79%
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58.94%
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Low Risk
COMEX Silver Short-Term Prediction Model Based on PCA and SVR
+23.10%
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40.16%
Max Drawdown
Medium Risk
COMEX GOLD model based on similarity metrics
+18.80%
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25.36%
Max Drawdown
Medium Risk
USDCHF Strategy (ARIMA timing analysis)
+18.53%
Annualized Return
16.26%
Max Drawdown
Medium Risk
Calculates the probabilities of certain assets prices going up/down driven by key economic data releases
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Central Bank Data
Gold - Fundamental Drivers
Crude Oil - Fundamental Drivers
OPEC production data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) only includes crude oil production data.