XRP price stuck below $0.65 resistance, Ripple lawsuit could suffer from Coinbase defeat

Cryptocurrency

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Another US court favored the SEC in a lawsuit against Coinbase, impacting Ripple's legal fight. XRP's price retreated to $0.61, unable to breach $0.65 resistance, following Judge Torres' rejection of programmatic sales ruling.

XRP price falls slightly to $0.61 on Thursday after its landmark programmatic sales ruling in July, which gave Ripple a partial victory against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), failed to reverberate in a similar legal battle between the regulator and crypto exchange Coinbase. A US court ruled on Wednesday that the SEC’s allegations that the exchange is operating as an unregistered broker are reasonable, rejecting Coinbase’s motion to dismiss the case. As Coinbase had based its defense partially on Ripple’s landmark ruling, this legal setback for Coinbase could have a significant impact on the regulator’s legal battle with Ripple.

Ripple ruling likely to be influenced by Coinbase lawsuit

The SEC’s lawsuits against payment firm Ripple and crypto exchange Coinbase are closely tied together since a ruling from the former played a pivotal role in the latter’s defense.

Coinbase had filed a motion to dismiss the SEC’s lawsuit against the exchange, and used Ripple’s XRP Programmatic sales ruling to support their defense.

On Wednesday, a US District court denied Coinbase’s motion to dismiss the SEC’s lawsuit against the exchange, with Judge Katherine Polk Failla effectively rejecting XRP Programmatic sales ruling .

The XRP programmatic sales ruling by Judge Analisa Torres differentiates between the altcoin’s secondary market sales, or those made on exchanges, and the sales made to institutional investors. The ruling considers that the former does not constitute a “security.”

Judge Failla rejected the ruling and “dealt a blow” to both Coinbase and Ripple in the latest court ruling, said former SEC attorney John Reed Stark on his X account. XRP price stuck below $0.65 resistance, Ripple lawsuit could suffer from Coinbase defeat_1

XRP price stuck below $0.65 resistance, Ripple lawsuit could suffer from Coinbase defeat_1

In the 84-page report, the Judge asserts that “whether a particular transaction in a crypto-asset amounts to an investment contract does not necessarily turn on whether an investor bought tokens directly from an issuer or, instead, in a secondary market transaction. (Def. Br. 13-17). For one, Howey does not recognize such a distinction as a necessary element in its test of whether a transaction constitutes an investment contract, nor have courts, in the nearly eighty years of applying Howey, read such an element into the test. Rather, under Howey, the Court must consider the “economic reality” of the transaction to determine whether that transaction is an investment contract.”

The court ruling against Coinbase supports the SEC’s crypto regulation by enforcement, allowing the regulator to proceed with their allegations of “unregistered securities trading” against Coinbase and partially reverses Ripple’s victory in its lawsuit.

XRP holders are likely to closely monitor the progress of the SEC’s lawsuit against Coinbase for more information that could impact Judge Analisa Torres’ ruling on XRP’s programmatic sales.

XRP price likely to sweep $0.56 lows

XRP price is consolidating within the $0.65 level, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci placeholder of the decline from March 11 peak of $0.7440 and March 20 low of $0.56. and $0.56. The declining Relative Strength Index (RSI), down to 50.47 on Thursday demonstrates bullish momentum is fading.

Meanwhile, the red bars below the zero line on the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicator signal a negative momentum has crept in XRP price. A candlestick close below $0.60, a psychologically important level, could be the nail in the coffin to start a downside correction. In such a case, XRP price could sweep the March 20 low at $0.56 and collect liquidity before a rebound in its price. XRP price stuck below $0.65 resistance, Ripple lawsuit could suffer from Coinbase defeat_2

XRP price stuck below $0.65 resistance, Ripple lawsuit could suffer from Coinbase defeat_2

On the upside, a daily candlestick close above $0.63, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, could invalidate the bearish thesis and promote gains in XRP price. The altcoin could target the year-to-date peak of $0.7440 in its uptrend and face resistance at $0.65 and $0.67, its 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci placeholders.

Source: Fxstreet

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Chandan Gupta

Traders' Opinions

Stocks

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is trading less than 0.1% higher on Thursday with the main Wall Street indices looking for direction in the last trading day of a strong quarter.The DJIA edges up 0.05% in the afternoon session, reaching 39,773 on track to close the quarter with gains beyond 6%. Equity markets have been boosted by hopes of lower borrowing costs coupled with a strong economic momentum in the US, which endorses the "soft landing" rhetoric and investors’ optimism about the potential of Artificial Intelligence. The benchmark S&P 500 is 0.07% higher, at 5,251, while the NASDAQ Composite Index drops 0.1% to 16,374.

Dow Jones news

The Energy and Utilities sectors are leading gains in the Dow Jones on Thursday with advances of 1.03% and 0.6%, respectively, while the Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary sectors, giving away 0.25% each are lagging behind.Leading the stocks, is Walt Disney (DIS), with 1.26% gains trading at $122.5, followed closely by 3M (MMM), up 1.24% at $105.88. The big tech companies are giving away previous gains on the back of end-of-quarter portfolio adjustments, which leaves Apple (AAPL) as the biggest loser, down 0.88% to $171.81, followed by Home Depot (HD) with a 0.6% decline to $383.58.Earlier on Thursday, the US Q4 Gross Domestic Product was upwardly revised to a 0.6% growth from the 0.4% previously estimated. Beyond that, weekly Jobless Claims declined to 210,000 from 212,000 in the week of March 22, against market expectations of an incremental move to 215,000.The focus now is on Friday’s PCE Prices Index, which is expected to provide further clues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, and the Fed Chair speech due shortly afterward.

Dow Jones technical outlook

The Dow Jones Index continues to exhibit bullish momentum, maintaining a robust position well above previous highs and the 4-hour 50 Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently positioned at 39,250. This suggests a strong trend favoring buyers, underpinned by positive market sentiment and favorable economic conditions.

At its current level, the index enjoys a comfortable cushion above critical support levels, indicating resilience against potential downward pressures. Should the index experience a pullback, the next downside targets are anticipated at the 39,260 level and further down to the trendline support situated at 38,775. These levels serve as crucial markers for market participants, potentially triggering increased buying interest as they approach, thereby acting as support zones in case of a corrective move.

Conversely, on the upside, the Dow faces notable resistance barriers, which could present challenges for bullish momentum to sustain its upward trajectory. Key resistances are identified at the previous high of 39,900 and the psychologically significant level of 40,000. These levels are likely to attract selling pressure as traders seek to capitalize on potential profit-taking opportunities or adopt a cautious stance amid heightened volatility.

The 39,900 level marks a significant milestone, representing a previous peak that may act as a psychological barrier for further advances. Additionally, traders often pay close attention to round-number levels such as 40,000, which tend to carry inherent psychological significance and can influence market behavior. As such, these resistance zones are expected to pose formidable challenges for bulls seeking to extend the Dow's upward trajectory. Dow Jones Industrial Average post marginal gains in the last trading day of the quarter_1

Dow Jones Industrial Average post marginal gains in the last trading day of the quarter_1

Source: Fxstreet

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Chandan Gupta

Commodity

Traders' Opinions

Understanding US Natural Gas Futures

US Natural Gas futures exhibit a slight uptick on Thursday, with traders eagerly awaiting the latest report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) regarding storage levels. While short-term fluctuations are possible, the market's trajectory is expected to remain influenced by prevailing weather patterns and storage inventory. However, today's EIA report might trigger a brief counter-trend rally, despite the overarching market direction.

Current Market Conditions and Price Movement

As of 13:08 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are priced at $1.740, reflecting a modest increase of $0.022 or +1.28%. Recent weather updates from NatGasWeather point to predominantly warmer conditions across the US, with localized cooler spells in the Southwest and Northern Plains. This milder weather reduces the demand for heating, resulting in an accumulation of natural gas surplus in storage. Current estimates suggest a surplus of approximately +674 billion cubic feet (Bcf), with an anticipated storage draw of around -31 Bcf, slightly higher than the five-year average of -27 Bcf.

Analyzing Recent Market Trends

The futures for May delivery have recently experienced a decline of 1.7%, primarily in response to reduced heating demand and the significant surplus in gas storage. Notably, gas prices have plummeted to their lowest levels since June 2020, reaching $1.481 per mmBtu. This downward price movement can be attributed to a combination of factors, including a mild winter and record-high gas production levels, which have led to an unprecedented accumulation of gas reserves.

Production Adjustments by Major Producers

Leading US gas producers such as EQT and Chesapeake Energy are adjusting their drilling activities in response to prevailing market conditions. This reduction in production aligns with a notable increase in the oil-to-gas price ratio, indicating a potential shift in focus from gas to oil production among industry players.

Supply and Demand Dynamics

Gas output in the Lower 48 US states has witnessed a decline, with current daily averages hovering around 100.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), down from February's figures of 104.1 bcfd. Forecasts suggest a further decrease in demand due to the impending warmer weather, with expectations of demand dropping from 112.3 bcfd to 105.0 bcfd in the coming week.

Short-Term Market Forecast

Given the prevailing high storage levels and reduced demand stemming from warmer weather conditions, the short-term outlook for US natural gas futures remains bearish. Prices are anticipated to continue their downward trajectory, driven by the imbalance between supply and demand dynamics. Traders are advised to closely monitor weather updates and storage data, as these factors will play a pivotal role in shaping market movements in the near term. The current period characterized by abundant supply and subdued demand is expected to exert sustained downward pressure on natural gas prices.

Technical Analysis

Thursday's trading session reveals a notable turn of events. After hitting a multi-year low earlier in the day, prices have shown signs of upward momentum, possibly driven by short-covering activities ahead of the awaited Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report.

This price action hints at the potential formation of a bullish closing price reversal bottom, though it's unlikely to single-handedly reverse the market's course. Nevertheless, it could trigger a shift in sentiment, prompting short sellers to reassess their positions.

Despite this, natural gas markets remain firmly anchored at extreme lows, characterized by significant noise. Still, for value-minded investors, opportunities may arise, with $1.50 emerging as a critical support level.

Considering dwindling profitability, drilling companies may soon withdraw from operations. However, any potential market recovery is expected to be gradual, requiring patience from investors. Personally, I've opted for an ETF investment, anticipating a significant bounce in due time.

Breaking above the $2 mark could signify a double bottom formation and pave the way for further upward movement. But timing remains uncertain, potentially stretching into the end of summer. Hence, caution is warranted, particularly regarding leverage, which holds minimal relevance in this complex market environment. Natural Gas Traveling Years-Low Ahead of EIA Report_1

Natural Gas Traveling Years-Low Ahead of EIA Report_1

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Chandan Gupta

Traders' Opinions

Commodity

Federal Reserve Influence on Silver Prices

The silver market remained relatively stable on Thursday, largely influenced by comments made by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller regarding interest rate policies. Waller's cautious approach towards potential rate adjustments, coupled with the anticipation surrounding upcoming U.S. economic data, has drawn significant attention from market participants. The impending release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Inflation Index on Friday holds particular importance, as it offers valuable insights into the Federal Reserve's strategy for managing inflation.

Current Silver Price Movement

Silver prices have exhibited limited movement within a narrow range throughout the week, yet there are indications of potential upward momentum. Breaking above the $25.78 mark would negate the bearish reversal observed last week, setting $26.00 as a feasible target. This optimistic trend is supported by a solid foundation at the $24.00 level, fueled by speculations surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy direction.

Impact of Treasury Yields and Monetary Policy

The recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields has triggered contemplation among investors regarding the future trajectory of interest rates. Waller's suggestion of potentially maintaining elevated rates for a prolonged period to control inflation carries significant implications. The reaction of the bond market, coupled with forthcoming inflation data, will play a pivotal role in shaping the Federal Reserve's future decisions regarding monetary policy.

Strength of the U.S. Dollar

Following Waller's remarks, the U.S. Dollar has experienced a surge in strength, strengthening against major global currencies. This development, indicative of a revised market outlook favoring a delay in potential rate cuts until June, has bolstered the dollar index. The forthcoming inflation figures are anticipated to exert considerable influence on the trajectory of the U.S. dollar and could potentially alter prevailing market expectations concerning rate adjustments in the year 2024.

Approach of the Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve's approach, as articulated by Waller's statements, underscores a cautious stance regarding potential adjustments to interest rates. While the possibility of rate cuts remains on the table, their timing and magnitude hinge on incoming economic data, particularly focusing on inflation metrics. The overarching strategy of the Federal Reserve is to strike a delicate balance, steering clear of premature rate reductions that could exacerbate inflationary pressures.

Short-term Outlook for the Silver Market

In the short term, the silver market exhibits a predominantly bullish sentiment, contingent upon the $24.32 level maintaining its role as a support threshold. However, it is worth noting that silver lacks the robust demand from central banks that is currently propelling gold prices upward.

Factors Influencing Silver Prices in the Near Term

Expectations regarding pivotal economic reports and the Federal Reserve's restrained stance on potential rate cuts are poised to provide support to silver prices in the near term. Market participants are advised to closely monitor updates pertaining to the U.S. economy and communications from the Federal Reserve. Additionally, the performance of the U.S. dollar and trends in Treasury yields will serve as instrumental factors in shaping the immediate direction of the silver market. Should both these variables continue to strengthen, silver prices are likely to encounter resistance, potentially capping their upward movement.

Technnical Analysis

The silver market exhibited a back-and-forth movement during Thursday's trading session, hovering around the $24.50 level. This pivotal point has garnered significant attention from traders, given its potential to dictate future market direction. Expectations of heightened volatility are in line with historical trading patterns.

There's a prevailing sentiment that buyers will continue to step in to support the market around this level. Breaking above the $24.90 mark is perceived as a bullish signal, potentially propelling silver towards the psychologically significant $26 level. However, it's worth noting that $26 has historically served as a formidable resistance barrier.

Conversely, a breakdown below the recent consolidation could trigger a downward move towards the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), with further downside potential to the $23.50 level. Despite the overall bullish sentiment, it's important to acknowledge the inherent noise in the silver market. Unlike gold, silver lacks the same level of momentum, which can contribute to increased volatility and unpredictability.

Given the current global landscape, there's a logical inclination towards considering gold as a safe-haven asset. While silver may offer some degree of safety, gold remains the preferred choice for investors seeking refuge in times of uncertainty. Silver might experience another upward leg in its price trajectory, but doubts persist regarding its ability to surpass the $26 threshold. Silver Prices Hindered by Increasing Yields and Robust Dollar Strength_2

Silver Prices Hindered by Increasing Yields and Robust Dollar Strength_2

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Kevin Du

Cryptocurrency

The 4th edition of the annual cryptocurrency study by Independent Reserve, Singapore's first regulated cryptocurrency exchange for all investors, shows that Bitcoin is top of the nation's mind.

Fueled by recent industry developments such as the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US, 39% of Singaporeans now view Bitcoin more favourably. 51% are aware of the US SEC's approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and 33% are open to investing through an overseas offering given that the product is not available to retail investors in Singapore.

With the upcoming Bitcoin halving event in April, 48% of crypto investors will continue to double down on Bitcoin in the next 12 months. Particularly, those who hold more than 50% of their portfolio in crypto are the most likely to increase their Bitcoin holdings (68%).

Given a choice, however, 75% of Singaporeans prefer investing directly in Bitcoin through a cryptocurrency exchange rather than through a Bitcoin ETF offering, because of lower fees and a wider range of trading options.

Mr Lasanka Perera, CEO, of Independent Reserve Singapore, said, "The long-awaited arrival of the spot Bitcoin ETFs has supercharged the demand side for Bitcoin as billions of dollars from institutions has poured in. The trust and understanding of Bitcoin have grown significantly over the past few years, and more Singaporeans are increasing their allocations.

"This year's IRCI findings also mirror the longer-term optimism towards cryptocurrency investing in Singapore - the industry is now filled with positive energy leading up to the Bitcoin halving event and what lies beyond. Seasoned Singaporean crypto investors are showing more sophistication as they diversify their portfolios, dollar-cost average, and tactically take profit. This is fantastic to see as it highlights a growing understanding of this asset class."

Bitcoin by the numbers

Singapore scored 56 on the IRCI this year, up 1 point from 2023

Singapore scored 56 on the IRCI this year, up 1 point from 2023. Singapore's 2024 IRCI score reflects a positive shift in public perception towards cryptocurrency. While overall awareness and ownership might have dipped slightly, other key metrics indicate a growing sense of confidence and optimism in the market.

This year's IRCI also found that Singaporean investors are more sophisticated on various fronts. The majority (52%) have been in the market for more than 3 years and hold increasingly diverse portfolios: more are holding 6 or more different cryptocurrencies (16%, up from 5% in 2023). In addition:

52% of Singapore's crypto owners primarily invest in crypto to diversify their investment portfolio, signifying the growing confidence in crypto as an alternative asset class.
Despite the ups and downs in market cycles, Singapore crypto investors are more certain about their plans for the next 12 months. 53% are going to invest more into their existing portfolio, and 45% indicated a desire to diversify into new projects.
61% who are experienced investors i.e. have been in the market for more than 5 years, cited frequent trading - at least once a week, compared to those who are newer to the market.
64% of crypto owners have reported making money (up 9pp) - surpassing profit levels of the last 2 years and inching closer to the 74% who reported profits at the 2021 bull market peak. Only 10% lost money this year compared to 26% in 2023.
More than half of the respondents - 55%, believe crypto will be widely accepted by businesses and everyday people (up 5pp). Particularly, the number of non-crypto owners who believe that crypto will be accepted by the mainstream also rose 8pp to 35%.

A higher proportion of Singaporeans turned a profit on their crypto investments this year. Additionally, there's a decline in negative sentiment, with fewer people viewing crypto with dislike and suspicion.

More Singaporeans believe in the long-term viability of the industry, signalling increasing mainstream trust and acceptance. Furthermore, more individuals are likely to invest in crypto within the next year, strongly indicating a resurgence in adoption.

Bitcoin ETFs A Game Changer for Singaporean Crypto Investors_2

Rising interest rates and cost-of-living have not dampened Singaporeans' bullishness towards crypto

To date, Singaporeans have displayed a healthy appetite for crypto investments. For their very first crypto purchase, 65% invested more than $500, and some 41% of current crypto investors still invest about $500+ a month towards their portfolio.

Despite being impacted by the rising interest rates and cost-of-living, almost a third or 29% of Singaporeans would opt to hold and/or increase their crypto allocation. Another 37% who are not impacted by rising costs also plan to hold or add their crypto.

Particularly, Boomers (above 55 y/o) are very bullish - 25% will hold or increase their crypto allocations despite cost-of-living pressures. Boomers' financial stability and reduced financial obligations may be possible causes for their ability and confidence to hold crypto and leverage its potential growth.

Meanwhile, 16% plan to sell a portion of their assets to help with such pressures and only 6% plan to liquidate their entire crypto portfolio to cope with the financial climate.

Gen Z and Gen X are worlds apart

This year's report unravelled the polarising attitudes and behaviours of 2 interesting segments in Singapore - Gen Z (18-25 y/o) and Gen X (46-55 y/o). These are two generations that were shaped by contrasting technological, social and economic eras. Having witnessed robust growth, Gen X prioritises job security and traditional career paths. In contrast, Gen Z, facing a competitive market, might be more receptive to entrepreneurial ventures.

1. Gen Z are headlong on crypto

Gen Z were more likely to invest in crypto, apart from in 2023, where more Gen X were still invested during the bear market. In the last 12 months, 47% of Gen Z were in crypto (up 8pp), while Gen X participation dropped to 30% (down 15pp).
42% of Gen Z are likely to invest in crypto in the next 12 months, compared to 31% of Gen X.

2. Gen X is cashed up and diversified

56% of Gen X's first crypto investment was over $1000, compared to 24% of Gen Z. Moreover, 42% of Gen X invest $500 or more per month compared to 21% of Gen Z.
Gen X are more diversely invested across traditional investment products such as stocks, bonds, ETFs, high-yield savings accounts and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs).
Likewise, Gen X are more likely to have exposure to a wider range of crypto assets. 18% of Gen X hold 6 or more cryptocurrencies compared to 4% of Gen Z.

3. Portfolio diversification vs word-of-mouth recommendation

When it comes to drivers influencing investment in crypto, 55% of Gen X were driven to diversify their existing investment portfolio compared to 35% of Gen Z.
Gen Z were most influenced by family and friends (47%) to invest in crypto, compared to 37% of Gen X.

4. Fear, a lack of money and education keep non-investors away

When it comes to reasons for not investing in crypto, 45% of Gen X cited not enough consumer protection vs 22% for Gen Z, and 47% stated price volatility vs 39% for Gen Z.
Conversely, 43% of Gen Z say their main reasons for not investing in crypto is not having the financial means vs 15% for Gen X, and 44% do not know where to start vs 16% for Gen X.

5. Gen Z is bullish, Gen X blows hot and cold

61% of Gen Z believe crypto will be widely accepted by people and businesses in the future, while just 44% of Gen X agree. However, only 18% of Gen Z and 17% of Gen X don't believe crypto will be widely accepted by people and businesses in the future.
51% of Gen Z would recommend crypto to family and friends, compared to 35% of the conservative Gen X.
However, Gen X is more bullish on Bitcoin's future price, with 26% believing it will reach over $100,000 by 2030, compared to 19% of Gen Z.

All eyes are on the Bitcoin halving event

Occurring approximately every four years, the "halving" is an event where Bitcoin miner rewards are halved. It has historically acted as a catalyst for a crypto bull market. Following the 2016 halving event, Bitcoin saw a staggering 10-fold increase in value, and an exponential 7.5x price jump in 2020 from US$9,100 to US$68,500, despite the volatile economic climate then. These past events prompt the question of whether Bitcoin will climb toward even greater highs in 2024.

As Bitcoin price optimism returns, Singaporeans' outlook for Bitcoin's price is positive. Almost half (48%) believe a Bitcoin will be worth between S$50,000 and S$100,000 by 2030 (up 16pp from 2023). 31% of those already invested in crypto are confident that Bitcoin will hit more than $100,000 (up 13pp from 2023).

"All eyes will be on Bitcoin in the coming few weeks. With the halving on the horizon, the supply of newly mined Bitcoin will reach an all-time low. This sharp decline in the supply will most likely see Bitcoin's price break all-time highs, many times throughout the year.

"Ultimately, this year's IRCI reveals that Singaporeans are just as excited about Bitcoin as I am. Bitcoin is seen as a digital gold, but superior to gold in many ways – it is portable, divisible, scarce, verifiable and can move over the internet 24-7," Mr Perera concluded.

Source: Cision

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Ukadike Micheal

Economic

Forex

In the week ending March 23, there were notable fluctuations in initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States. The seasonally adjusted initial claims decreased to 210,000, marking a significant shift from the previous week. This decline was accompanied by a revision in the previous week's level, which was adjusted upwards by 2,000 to 212,000. Similarly, the 4-week moving average also saw a decrease to 211,000, reflecting a downward trend in initial claims.

Conversely, the insured unemployment rate remained stable at 1.2 percent for the week ending March 16, with the number of insured unemployed individuals increasing by 24,000 from the previous week. This rise in insured unemployment was partially offset by a downward revision in the previous week's level, which was adjusted down by 12,000 to 1,795,000. The 4-week moving average for insured unemployment also witnessed an increase to 1,802,750, indicating a growing number of individuals relying on unemployment benefits.

In terms of unadjusted data, the actual number of initial claims under state programs decreased slightly to 191,485 in the week ending March 23. This marginal decline, coupled with the expected seasonal increase, suggests a relatively stable trend in unemployment claims. The unadjusted insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.3 percent, with a modest increase in the number of insured unemployed individuals compared to the preceding week.

Looking at specific demographics, initial claims for UI benefits filed by former Federal civilian employees and newly discharged veterans showed varying trends. While former Federal civilian employees experienced a slight decrease in initial claims, newly discharged veterans saw a more significant decline in claims. Continued weeks claimed for benefits by these groups also exhibited fluctuations, with former Federal civilian employees showing an increase and newly discharged veterans showing a decrease in claimed weeks.

Analyzing the regional perspective, certain states reported higher insured unemployment rates compared to the national average. States like New Jersey, Rhode Island, and California stood out with elevated unemployment rates, indicating localized economic challenges. On the other hand, states such as Missouri, Michigan, and Tennessee reported notable increases in initial claims, while California and Oregon witnessed substantial decreases, reflecting diverse economic conditions across different regions.

From a technical standpoint, these fluctuations in unemployment data can have significant implications for the market. A rise in initial claims and insured unemployment rates may signal economic uncertainty and potential challenges for businesses. Investors and analysts closely monitor these indicators as they provide insights into the overall health of the labor market and the broader economy. Increased unemployment claims can lead to reduced consumer spending, impacting various industries and sectors.

The recent changes in unemployment data highlight the dynamic nature of the labor market and its implications for the economy. While fluctuations in initial claims and insured unemployment rates are a common occurrence, understanding the underlying trends and regional variations is crucial for assessing the overall economic landscape. As market participants continue to analyze these indicators, the data serves as a valuable tool for gauging economic conditions and making informed decisions in an ever-evolving market environment.

Source: US Department of Labour

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Ukadike Micheal

Forex

Economic

In January, Canada's economy exhibited resilience and a path towards recovery, with real gross domestic product (GDP) registering a growth of 0.6%. This growth was propelled by a robust performance in both services-producing and goods-producing industries, highlighting the economy's broad-based expansion.

The services-producing sector, which saw a 0.7% increase, played a significant role in driving overall economic growth. Particularly noteworthy was the rebound in educational services, with a remarkable 6.0% growth rate, indicating a swift recovery following the resolution of public sector strikes in Quebec. Additionally, the health care and social assistance sector experienced a notable 0.8% growth, signaling positive momentum in essential services.

In contrast, the goods-producing industries recorded a more modest growth of 0.2% in January 2024. However, this still contributed to the overall economic expansion. The manufacturing sector, in particular, fully recovered from the previous month's decline, posting a 0.9% increase driven by durable goods manufacturing, notably in the transportation equipment subsector. January 2024 Industry Gross Domestic Product in Canada_1

January 2024 Industry Gross Domestic Product in Canada_1

Despite the overall positive trajectory, challenges persisted in certain sectors. The mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector contracted by 1.9%, primarily due to declines in oil and gas extraction. Extreme weather conditions, including frigid temperatures, adversely impacted production levels, leading to decreases in oil sands extraction and pipeline transportation.

However, amidst these challenges, the real estate and rental and leasing sector continued its upward trend for the third consecutive month, buoyed by higher resale activity in key markets such as the Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton-Burlington. This sector's resilience underscores its importance as a driver of economic activity and consumer confidence.

Looking ahead, the advance estimate for real GDP in February suggests a further 0.4% increase, with contributions from various sectors including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, manufacturing, and finance and insurance. However, challenges remain, particularly in sectors sensitive to external factors such as weather conditions and global demand.

While Canada's economy shows promising signs of recovery, sustained growth will require ongoing vigilance and proactive measures to address sector-specific challenges and support continued expansion. By fostering resilience and adaptability, Germany can navigate through uncertainties and emerge stronger in the post-pandemic landscape.