US Senate Budget Bill Slashes Money to Fill Oil Reserve

Commodity

Political

Summary:

The budget bill slashed the amount of money for crude oil purchases to replenish the SPR to $171 million from $1.3 billion.

The budget bill passed by the U.S. Senate on Tuesday slashes the amount of money available to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve even though President Donald Trump vowed on his first day in his second term to fill it "right to the top".

Former President Joe Biden conducted several sales from the SPR including 180 million barrels, the most ever, after Russia invaded Ukraine. The sales left the SPR at its lowest level in 40 years, when the U.S. was far more dependent on oil imports.

The budget bill slashed the amount of money for crude oil purchases to replenish the SPR to $171 million from $1.3 billion. That's only enough to buy about 3 million barrels instead of 20 million barrels at today's prices.

Rapidan Energy, a consultancy group, told clients in a note that the funding was hit by the Senate's struggle to find budget cuts elsewhere as it softened some of the cuts to green energy in a version of the House bill.

The bill now heads to the U.S. House, but it was unclear when lawmakers there would vote.

Trump said on Tuesday that he plans to fill up the SPR when the market conditions are right, but it was unclear when or how.

Even deliveries of oil to the SPR that were scheduled after Biden bought back some crude last year are as much as seven months delayed. Biden scheduled 15.8 million barrels of deliveries to the SPR from January through May. So far, only 8.8 million of that has been delivered to the reserve, a situation the Trump administration blamed on maintenance.

The Senate bill kept a measure to cancel 7 million barrels in congressionally-mandated sales. Lawmakers could cancel further mandated sales in legislation later in the year.

The SPR has nearly 403 million barrels, far less than the 727 million barrels it held in 2009, the most ever. It is still the world's largest emergency reserve of oil. The U.S. hit record oil output under Biden, production Trump is looking to expand.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

The crypto market saw significant declines on July 1 despite Bitcoin’s record monthly close the day prior amid continued institutional and corporate accumulation.

Bitcoin (BTC) managed to maintain its footing above the $105,000, but altcoins experienced drastic declines, with some posting double-digit percentage losses for the day.

Bitcoin fell nearly 2% to a low of $105,182, while its daily trading volume rose 5.2% to $44.96 billion, indicating continued activity even as prices dipped. The flagship crypto was trading at $105,700 but remains in danger of further downside if the recovery loses steam.

Ethereum (ETH) also fared better than the average, sliding 3.8% for the day to a low of $2,393, while other major tokens such as Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA) posted losses exceeding 7%, reflecting wider market weakness. The overall crypto market value dropped 2.5% to $3.25 trillion.

Over the past 24 hours, approximately 99,016 traders were liquidated, with total liquidations reaching $243.49 million. Long positions accounted for $207.14 million, while shorts represented $36.36 million, based on Coinglass data.

Bitcoin saw the highest liquidations at $57.93 million, followed by Ethereum at $33.04 million.

Broader economic uncertainty continues to weigh on market sentiment. Persistent inflation pressures remain despite prior rate increases, fueling concerns that the Federal Reserve may maintain elevated borrowing costs for longer than previously expected.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions, especially the upcoming July 9 tariff deadline, have added to investor caution, with worries about global supply chain disruptions and energy security impacting broader market confidence.

The US Senate also passed President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” but it dropped the crypto tax amendments from the final draft, further exacerbating the negative sentiment in the market.

Traditional markets showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 edging down while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1%.

Bitcoin’s relative stability in the face of these declines emphasizes its position as the dominant digital asset, though its failure to break above key resistance levels has prompted some traders to lock in profits, adding to market pressure.

Investors are now awaiting upcoming US labor market data later this week, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy path and set the tone for risk assets in the days ahead.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Central Bank

Bond

Treasuries fell on Tuesday after a report on US job openings failed to provide justification for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut as soon as next month.

Bonds slipped across maturities with yields trading close to session highs late in New York. Shorter-dated tenors, those more sensitive to Fed policy shifts, rose the most. The two-year note’s yield was up about six basis points to 3.78% — rebounding from below 3.70% earlier in the session — following JOLTS data that showed a steep increase in openings, a sign of strength in the labor market.

The market had been rallying in anticipation that three reports on the employment picture would spur Fed rate cuts. Traders saw a remote chance of the first of those coming in July if the reports showed weakness in the labor market. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at a global monetary policy event in Sintra, Portugal, declined to rule out a July cut.

“It seems as if the market has bypassed the data-dependency” of Powell “and focused more on the much stronger May JOLTs data,” said John Brady, managing director at RJ O’Brien.

Momentum has been building in favor of earlier Fed rate cuts despite expectations that tariffs introduced by the US administration this year will contribute to faster inflation. President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he’s not considering delaying the July 9 deadline for those levies.

A July rate cut is viewed as a long shot, but swap contracts linked to Fed policy shifts assign it about 15% odds versus near zero last month, and in the past week, interest-rate options trades looking for lower yields and a faster pace of Fed easing have been popular. A quarter-point cut is fully priced in for September.

Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on Monday predicted Fed rate cuts in September, October and December. They previously expected one, in December.

Against the backdrop of record highs for US stocks and other favorable financial conditions, Fed policymakers may insist on evidence of a faltering job market before cutting rates. Two other reports this week — the ADP report on private-sector job creation and the US Labor Department’s employment report, both for June — could still provide it.

“If the jobs data finally confirm the concerns on the labor front, it gets the Fed off the fence, to at least start to signal that July is a possibility,” said George Goncalves, head of US macro strategy at MUFG Securities Americas Inc. “You’ll get more Fed speakers leaning toward a cut in July. Investors don’t want to miss that pivot. But it’s all predicated on a weak NFP,” he said, referring to the employment report’s nonfarm payrolls component.

The Treasury market delivered its best performance since February last month as softer-than-expected inflation data and growth in jobless claims drove expectations for an earlier start to Fed rate cuts. Traders are pricing in around 65 basis points of cuts by year-end, compared with around 50 basis points at the end of May.

Speaking in Sintra, Powell — who has said that widespread expectations for tariff-induced inflation to emerge later this year mean that the Fed should be cautious — reiterated that message in part.

He said Fed officials would “expect to see over the summer some higher [inflation] readings, but we’re prepared to learn that it can be higher or lower or later or sooner than we’d expected.”

Policy will evolve “meeting by meeting,” he said, “but I wouldn’t take any meeting off the table or put it directly on the table. It’s going to depend on how the how the data evolve.”

Powell’s comments came as the US administration steps up its criticism of the Fed as being too slow to reduce borrowing costs.

Trump sent a note to Powell on Monday with a list of interest rates in other countries, calling for cuts in the US, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg TV that policymakers “seem a little frozen at the wheel” with regard to deciding on rates right now.

“Powell has been fairly balanced, but I think he just announced what is coming down the road, and that is a rate cut and possibly more than expected,” Tom di Galoma, managing director at Mischler Financial Group, said.

Trump’s announced intention to replace Powell when his term ends in May 2026 with a Fed chair who’ll cut rates has helped drive short-term Treasury yields lower.

Also in focus is the latest US budget deal that may alter expectations for deficits and borrowing. On Tuesday, the US Senate passed a $3.3 trillion tax and spending cut bill and the package, which now goes to the House, combines $4.5 trillion in tax cuts with $1.2 trillion in spending cuts.

Source: Bloomberg

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Stocks

The U.S. stock market completed a roller-coaster first half of the year at record-high levels but a host of factors could knock equities off their perch over the rest of 2025.

The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX), is up over 5% on the year so far, rebounding from an April plunge after an economic scare stemming from President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff plan. Here are some of the key questions facing U.S. stock investors at the start of the second half.

WILL TARIFFS BITE, OR JUST BARK?

While worst-case fears about Trump's tariffs have eased, more near-term volatility could be in store as the U.S. seeks to hammer out trade agreements in the coming weeks. A July 9 deadline on many tariffs, if it holds, could be an early second-half test for stocks.

Even if some of the harshest levies are rolled back, higher effective tariffs this year still could drive up inflation and cut into company profits and consumer spending. The effective U.S. tariff rate based on announced policies has climbed to 13% from 3% at the start of the year, Goldman Sachs analysts said last week.

After strong first-quarter profits, U.S. corporate earnings will be a critical gauge to assess whether Wall Street has properly factored in the fallout from tariffs. Second-quarter reports begin later this month, with S&P 500 earnings in the period expected to have increased 5.9%, according to LSEG IBES.

WHEN WILL THE FED CUT RATES?

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has pointed to concerns that tariffs will push up inflation as a reason for the central bank to hold off on interest rate cuts. Still, fed fund futures indicate nearly three cuts expected by the end of this year, with the first likely in September, LSEG data showed.

The Fed and Powell have endured a barrage of pressure from Trump to cut rates and the president has mused about picking a replacement for Powell soon, well ahead of the expiration of the chair's term in May 2026. That move could increase expectations for more cuts but also bring turbulence to markets concerned about the Fed remaining independent.

A weakening U.S. economy could also prompt the central bank to ease rates, and some signs of softening in the labor market mean that incoming data poses a test for asset prices. The latest monthly employment report is due on Thursday.

IS BIG TECH BACK IN CHARGE?

After a rough start to the year, technology and growth shares have retaken the reins of the market. Tech (.SPLRCT), was the best-performing S&P 500 sector in the second quarter, while the "Magnificent Seven" megacap stocks overall (MAGS.Z), have surged since the market's April lows.

The performance has revived concerns about a relatively small number of large stocks propelling the market, including that the advance may not be as strong beneath the surface. Many investors still expect more stocks to support market gains as the year goes on.

The equal-weight version of the S&P 500 - which better captures performance of the average stock in the index - is up nearly 4% in 2025.

"I would suspect that if the market is going to continue pushing higher, you're going to need to see broadening," said Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management.

HOW EXPENSIVE CAN EQUITIES GET?

With the market's rebound, stock valuations have also ascended. On Friday, when the S&P 500 hit its first record high in over four months, the index's forward price-to-earnings ratio reached 22.2. That was the highest level since February and well above its long-term average of 15.8.

As investors seek to value equities, they are increasingly looking to future earnings prospects, including whether 2026 profits significantly improve. S&P 500 earnings are expected to rise 8.5% this year and 14% next year.

Another factor is Treasury yields, which tend to pressure equity valuations when they rise. While benchmark yields have subsided since earlier this year, any spike in the 10-year yield could rattle stock investors, such as if the U.S. fiscal bill moving through Congress prompts concerns about the widening deficit.

WILL 'U.S. EXCEPTIONALISM' DOUBTS DENT EQUITIES?

Questions about the allure of U.S. assets have been a global theme in 2025, triggered by Trump's stunning tariffs announcement in April that sparked uncertainty over American policy. The U.S. dollar recently hit its lowest level in three years against a basket of major currencies.

After a long period of dominance over other regions, U.S. equities have also trailed their international counterparts so far this year. Non-U.S. equities are still relatively cheap in general, creating questions about which group will win out over the rest of 2025.

WILL GEOPOLITICS RE-EMERGE AS A RISK?

Stocks pulled back briefly during the recent Israel-Iran conflict before tensions calmed, but analysts are wary that resumption of Middle East hostilities could cause fresh volatility. That would particularly be the case if constraints on oil supply led crude prices to soar above $100 a barrel.

Spikes in geopolitical unrest over the past 30 years have rarely been a headwind for U.S. equity returns, Barclays strategists said in a recent note. But they added that "geopolitical risk flare-ups do motivate bouts of elevated volatility, and risk assets in general would be vulnerable should the current conflict escalate."

Source: Reuters

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Commodity

Middle East Situation

With futures markets having first fallen and then stabilized after the worst-case scenarios coming out of the Iran-Israel conflict did not occur, retail prices are starting to reflect that retreat.

The weekly Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration average weekly retail diesel price fell 4.8 cents/gallon effective Monday, announced Tuesday, to $3.727/g.

The decline follows three weeks of gains which added 32.4 cts/g to the benchmark used for most fuel surcharges, rising to last week’s price of $3.727/g, up from $3.451/g prior to the three-week surge.

Futures prices for ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD) on the CME commodity exchange fell 17.87 cts/g on June 23, the first day after it appeared the Israel-Iran conflict was not going to lead to the worst case supply scenario of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the gateway to the Persian Gulf and its exports of about 20% of the world’s crude supply. The settlement that day was $2.2851/g.

But prices have since bounced back, helped in part by the weak U.S. dollar. Oil prices, denominated in dollars, tend to move in the opposite direction of strength in the dollar. That helped a rebound that resulted in ULSD settling Tuesday at $2.3269/g.

Beyond the movement in outright oil prices, ULSD continues to strengthen relative to crude.

On a straight comparison of first-month Brent on CME versus first-month ULSD, that spread at the close of May was about 50 cts/g. But by the last trading day of June on Monday, the spread had widened to either side of 70 cts/g for several days.

That sort of gain shows up at the pump in price increases that outpace those of crude, and decreases that lag those in the crude market.

Diesel has been increasingly burdened with tight inventories worldwide. Inventories show up in the spread between first month and second month diesel or crude, and tight stocks widen the spread between higher-priced first month ULSD and lower-priced second month.

In a perfectly balanced market, the front month price is lower than the second month price, with the higher price in the later month reflecting the time value of money and the cost of inventory. That market structure is called contango.

But when inventories are tight, the barrel to be delivered the fastest becomes the most valuable. The market then flips into a structure called backwardation, with the front month the most expensive, the second month less expensive and the third month lower still.

The backwardation has blown out in recent days. It closed May at 1.18 cts/g–meaning the front month was that much higher-priced than the second month–but by the final day of June on Monday had widened to 5.95 cts/g. Much of that increase in the spread came in the last days of the month, rising from just under 4 cts/g Wednesday to more than 7 cts/g Thursday before dropping back slightly.

Source: FreightWaves

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Forex

Central Bank

The euro’s relentless rally stalled on Tuesday as US data failed to support an imminent interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve, prompting traders to buy the dollar.

The greenback’s recovery pressured the common currency, leading it to trade slightly weaker on the day after it touched the highest level since September 2011 earlier in the session. If it were to close higher on Tuesday, it would have been the longest streak since 2004 and eclipsed only twice since the currency’s inception in 1999.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced to a session high after Donald Trump’s $3.3 trillion tax and spending cut bill passed the Senate. It was also gaining after the first of this week’s three reports on US labor market conditions failed to provide justification for a Fed cut as soon as next month.

“I think the knee-jerk reaction was to buy the dollar on lower fiscal policy uncertainty,” said Win Thin, global head of markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. “To me, pushing through a massive tax cut will eventually widen the budget deficit, which is ultimately dollar-negative.”

The common currency declined 0.1% to $1.1777 on Tuesday, after eight days of advances pushed options traders to ramp up bullish positioning. So-called risk reversals — a closely watched measure of market sentiment — posted the third-strongest bullish repricing of the year last week. Data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation show that nearly two out of three options in the past week targeted a stronger euro. Euro´s Persistent Rise Undercut by Dollar Bounce on Data, Bill_1

Euro´s Persistent Rise Undercut by Dollar Bounce on Data, Bill_1

The euro’s rally has been underpinned by a long-running slide for the dollar, with fresh momentum from weaker US data and growing conviction that the Fed is preparing to ease policy more aggressively than the European Central Bank. According to Danske Bank AS strategists led by Jens Naervig Pedersen, the dollar’s structural decline has resumed as geopolitical risks fade and focus returns to the US economy and political backdrop.

“We see many reasons to be short USD right now, including the possibility of a new Fed Chair being appointed earlier than expected, the Big Beautiful Bill on 4 July, and the tariff deadline on 9 July,” he said.

The euro has risen nearly 14% against the greenback this year so far, while a dollar index has fallen more than 9%.

Analysts increasingly see the euro rallying toward $1.20 in the coming months. Strategists at Societe Generale SA, including Kit Juckes, expect the common currency to peak at around $1.25 over the medium term, even if it lags the yen and some Asian peers in the second half of the year.

European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said Tuesday that while a move to $1.20 is “acceptable,” further gains would make policy makers’ task more complicated.

What Bloomberg Strategists Say

“While a mild strengthening of the currency doesn’t pose a particular concern for the ECB, gains that are too rapid tend to tighten financial conditions and may threaten to crimp economic growth.” — Ven Ram, Macro Strategist, Dubai. Click here for the full piece.

For Nicholas Wall, head of Global FX Strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, the ECB is doing the right thing by embracing a euro that’s attracting more demand as a reserve currency. “A stronger euro is good for Europe partly in the context of rising oil prices,” he said.

The latest euro-area inflation data offered little reason for the ECB to alter its stance. Consumer prices rose in France and Spain but held steady in Italy and unexpectedly eased in Germany, reinforcing the central bank’s view that inflation will converge sustainably toward its 2% target.

Source: Bloomberg

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Cryptocurrency

Although the cryptocurrency market has seen a slight decline in recent days, Bitcoin continues to dominate. This has resulted in altcoins recording their weakest performance against BTC in years.

The total market capitalization excluding Bitcoin recovered by nearly 10% last week. Sitting at a critical support level of $1 trillion, the new week has started calmly for altcoins. If this support zone holds across the altcoin market, it could indicate that the capital flowing into crypto—currently dominated by Bitcoin—may begin to shift towards altcoins. In particular, expectations around ETFs, the possibility of early Fed rate cuts, and the launch of new altcoin-based products could support this transition.

Several developments within the internal dynamics of the crypto market may also gradually shift investor sentiment in favor of altcoins. The ongoing ETF progress for Ethereum, the launch of a staking-integrated ETF for Solana, and rising institutional interest in Bitcoin Cash are just some examples of this growing momentum toward altcoins.

While ETF Uncertainty Persists in Ethereum, Medium-to-Long-Term Potential Remains

Ethereum, which leads the altcoin market, continues to face pressure—most recently from the SEC’s decision to delay the Ethereum staking ETF proposed by Bitwise.

The SEC’s approval of the spot Ethereum ETF last year was a major milestone. Now, the potential inclusion of staking could mark another turning point for ETH. The possible returns from introducing staking into ETFs, along with broader spot ETF approvals, remain powerful catalysts for Ethereum over the medium to long term.

At the same time, increased activity on the Ethereum network and recent upgrades are contributing to its stability. The expansion of institutional Ethereum products in the second half of the year could also bring ETH back into focus. In the short term, however, ETH remains under technical pressure.

3 Altcoins That Stand to Gain If Capital Rotates Away From Bitcoin_1

Ethereum recently rebounded alongside the broader market following a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. As a result, ETH recovered the support level we’ve been monitoring at $2,430, driven by renewed buying interest.

Currently, ETH is trading sideways above the $2,430 support, but ongoing pressure is making it difficult to break into the $2,500 region. If ETH manages to secure daily closes above $2,500, this could open the door for a move towards $2,700. The resistance at $2,730 has remained unbroken since May. A high-volume breakout above this level could trigger a rally towards the $3,000–3,400 range.

However, if ETH—already under pressure—falls below the $2,430 support without any shock developments, we could see an increase in selling pressure. If that happens, and ETH dips below the 3-month EMA at $2,380, the likelihood of a move towards $2,000 increases significantly.

ETF Movement in Solana Creates Excitement

Solana’s REX-Osprey SOL+Staking ETF is the first spot ETF to integrate staking rewards. Launching on July 2, 2025, this product offers investors exposure to both SOL price action and passive staking income. This first-of-its-kind ETF has been met with short-term positive sentiment.

However, this ETF development coincides with a weakening of Solana’s network fundamentals. Stablecoin value on the network has declined since the start of the year, and revenues have also fallen. This suggests waning interest in Solana, which is also making it technically difficult for SOL to break out of its short-term downtrend. At this stage, sustained interest in the ETF could boost demand for SOL again. For stronger price action, we’ll need to see a recovery in network usage and an increase in institutional fund flows.

3 Altcoins That Stand to Gain If Capital Rotates Away From Bitcoin_2

Recent buying activity in Solana helped break the short-term downtrend. However, following the ETF news, the typical “sell the news” reaction in crypto kicked in, and the SOL price now appears to be retesting the trendline.

Accordingly, $148 is a key support level for SOL. If buyers can defend this level, it would confirm the continuation of the uptrend. In this case, we could see Solana advancing toward price targets of $165, $183, and $202, respectively.

Conversely, if daily closes fall below the $148 support, a pullback toward the $130 level becomes likely.

Bitcoin Cash Maintains Strong Outlook With the Support of Institutional Buying

Bitcoin Cash has recently emerged as one of the market’s standout assets. BCH, currently trading at $523, is revisiting levels not seen since December 2024.

After beginning its uptrend in April, BCH was only marginally affected by the May correction and managed to maintain its positive momentum through June. The recent divergence in BCH—both technically and in terms of investor interest—positions it as a notable option for short-term speculative trading. That said, the sustainability of this uptrend will depend on broader market conditions and macroeconomic developments.

3 Altcoins That Stand to Gain If Capital Rotates Away From Bitcoin_3

Technically, the Stochastic RSI on the daily chart indicates that BCH may continue its upward move. Based on the last bearish wave (from December 2024 to April 2025), the nearest resistance lies at $544 (Fib 0.786). If BCH can close above this level on a weekly basis, it could continue its momentum toward the $620 resistance, followed by a medium-term target range of $720–840.

If BCH fails to break above $544, profit-taking may accelerate. In that case, a retreat to the $485 support (Fib 0.618) would be the likely first stop.