US media stocks fall as Trump threatens 100% tariff on foreign-made films

Stocks

Summary:

U.S. media stocks fell after Trump proposed a 100% tariff on foreign-made films, sparking global industry concerns over rising costs, disrupted production, potential retaliation, and unclear enforcement details.

American media stocks fell on Monday after President Donald Trump unveiled a 100% tariff on all movies produced outside the U.S., in his latest levies that could sharply raise costs for Hollywood studios and roil the global entertainment industry.

Trump's announcement was light on details. It did not say whether the duties will apply to films on streaming platforms as well as theatrical releases, nor did it detail whether tariffs would be based on production costs or box office revenue.

"There is too much uncertainty, and this latest move raises more questions than answers," said PP Foresight analyst Paolo Pescatore. "It doesn't feel like something that will happen in the short term as everyone will be grappling to understand the whole process. Inevitably costs will be passed on to consumers."

The move dashed hopes that Trump was backing away from his aggressive trade agenda, which has rattled business confidence, clouded the outlook for U.S. assets and dented economic growth.

The tariffs could particularly hit Netflix (NFLX.O), opens new tab as the streaming pioneer relies on its global production network to produce content for international audiences. Its shares tumbled 2.5% in early trading.

Disney (DIS.N), opens new tab, Warner Bros Discovery (WBD.O), opens new tab and Universal-owner Comcast (CMCSA.O), opens new tab fell between 0.7% and 1.7%. Stocks of theater operators such as Cinemark (CNK.N), opens new tab and IMAX (IMAX.N), opens new tab were down 5.4% and 5.9%, respectively.

Imax declined to comment, while others did not respond to requests for comment.

Despite Los Angeles' historic reputation as the hub of cinema, studios have over the years shifted production overseas to locations such as the UK, Canada and Australia to take advantage of generous tax credits and lower labor costs.

Most of this year's Oscar best picture nominees were filmed outside the U.S. and a survey among studio executives over their preferred production locations for 2025 to 2026 by ProdPro showed that the top five choices were all overseas.

Forcing a return to U.S. soil would drive up production budgets and disrupt a global production supply chain that now includes shooting in Europe, post-production in Canada and visual effects work in Southeast Asia.

US media stocks fall as Trump threatens 100% tariff on foreign-made films_1

Production spending in U.S. decreased by 26% compared to 2022

"The problem is that pretty much all the studios are moving tons of production overseas to reduce production costs," said Rosenblatt Securities analyst Barton Crockett.

"Raising the cost to produce movies could lead studios to make less content. There's also a risk of retaliatory tariffs against American content overseas.

Hollywood is already in the crosshairs of China, which vowed last month to curb U.S. movie imports in retaliation for the latest broader tariffs. But analysts said the hit may be limited as box office returns from China have been declining.

Still, any tariffs would put further pressure on an industry already reeling from cord-cutting and rising labor costs after the 2023 Hollywood strikes secured higher pay and broader benefits for writers and actors.

STOKING CONCERNS

Trump's tariff threat - framed as a national security move - sparked concern across the global film industry.

Leaders in Australia and New Zealand, key locations for Marvel movies and "The Lord of the Rings," said they would defend local film industries. British media union Bectu urged the government to protect the country's "vital" film sector, warning tens of thousands of freelance jobs were on the line.

Matthew Stillman, CEO of Prague-based Stillking Films, one of the biggest producers of U.S.-financed international content in Central and Eastern Europe, said the tariff threat risked derailing global production pipelines.

"We are awaiting clarity about how the tariff is calculated and whether its on international rebated production, film financing or U.S. distribution - all of which have implications and complications," he said.

Analysts also said enforcement would be tough, as major media conglomerates could restructure operations to skirt the duties, producing content through foreign subsidiaries or licensing content across borders.

"A single movie can also be shot in several countries, as is the case with many James Bond movies, so it is unclear if another way around this is by having just a few scenes filmed in the U.S.," said Emarketer analyst Ross Benes.

"It's another half-baked idea that will introduce panic for workers in the marketplace as the legality and enforcement are worked out ex post facto."

Source: reuters

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Adam

Commodity

After a surprise decision to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in April, OPEC+ on Saturday announced a similar increase starting in June.

While OPEC+ had initially planned to gradually return the 2.2 million barrels per day in production cuts decided at the end of 2022 to the market, the pace is now faster. This decision wasn't really liked by the market at a time when global growth is being revised downward due to the impact of the US trade policy. This explains the drop in oil prices, which are now at their lowest level since 2021 and down about 20% for the year.

The OPEC+ decision may seem surprising, given that for several years the cartel has been working to keep prices at relatively high levels. However, Saudi Arabia seems frustrated by a situation in which it has borne the brunt of production cuts—the kingdom reduced its output by 2 million barrels per day—while other members, such as Kazakhstan and Iraq, have prioritized their own interests and consistently exceeded their quotas.

On the stockmarket, this drop in prices has led to a significant underperformance by oil companies, whose results are directly affected. TotalEnergies, for example, is down 5% in 2025, compared with an increase of around 5% for the CAC40 over the same period.

Nevertheless, the decline in oil prices is benefiting companies whose costs are heavily dependent on oil prices. This is the case, for example, with airlines. On Monday, Ryanair shares were up 6%, while Air France-KLM and Lufthansa both gained 2%.

Source: MarketScreener

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Thomas

Economic

As a result of recency bias, where we assume the recent past is a permanent state of affairs, many believe near-zero interest rates are "normal." They aren't. As the chart of 10-year US Treasury yields--a proxy for interest rates throughout the economy--illustrates, rates in the 3% or lower were an anomaly that only occurred in the relatively brief period of 2011-2022.

For the five decades between 1960 and 2007, interest rates of 4% and higher were the norm. These included the glorious decades of stable growth and rising stocks / housing valuations--the 1960s, 1980s, 1990s and up to 2007, just before the financial crisis of 2008-09.

For 33 of those years, interest rates of 5.75% or higher were the norm, from 1967 to 2000. No one said that the economy would collapse if interest rates didn't drop to 3%, for it was understood that super-low interest rates would ignite inflation and incentivize destructive speculative excesses.

For the 25 years between 1970 and 1994, rates between 5.75% and 8% were normal. The 10-year Treasury yield is now around 4% to 4.2%--far lower than what was considered normal for 25 years.

It's long been noted that interest rate cycles tend to run for decades, not years. Interest rates rose for around 25 years, and then declined for 40 years from 1981 to 2020--a period that was longer than average, thanks to the dominance of central bank monetary policies, or perhaps more accurately, the growing dependence of economies on extraordinarily low interest rates for their "growth."

If history is any guide, interest rates will rise back to the historic range between 5.75% and 8% and linger there for the better part of two decades. Alternatively, rates break above that range and skyrocket into the realm of debt / inflationary crises.

The return of Treasury yields to the historically "normal" range of 4% and higher has doubled the Federal interest payments on Federal debt. It was easily predictable that super-low interest rates would encourage an orgy of borrowing and spending of all that "nearly free money," which is precisely what happened.

The interest paid by households has also soared for the same reason: not just because interest rates rose, but because the borrowed money (debt) being serviced exploded higher due to low interest rates.

Higher debt / interest payments squeeze out other spending. Debt payments come first, or the entity defaults on its debts and enters bankruptcy--a bankruptcy that tends to bankrupt the lenders who will be lucky to collect pennies on every dollar they lent out.

Households are going to have a hard time servicing debt and spending more as rates rise, for wage earners' share of the economy has been in a freefall for 50 years. Less income + higher debt service payments = lower discretionary income to spend + inability to borrow more money to spend = recession.

Interest rates are linked to inflation, but they're also linked to risk. The cost of money isn't simply tied to inflation expectations--it's also tied to speculative excesses blowing credit-asset bubbles which implode, destroying the phantom wealth generated by the bubble.

The lenders that survive the implosion are wary of lending money to all but the most conservative, risk-averse, creditworthy borrowers backed by ample collateral. That excludes the majority of households and enterprises.

Source: Zero Hedge

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Adam

Commodity

Gold futures prices are strongly higher in early U.S. trading Monday, on more safe-haven demand, especially from China. Silver prices are modestly up. A weaker U.S. dollar index to start the trading week is also friendly for the gold and silver markets. June gold was last up $81.30 at $3,324.60. May silver prices were last up $0.381 at $32.37.

In overnight news, a Saxo Bank analyst said strong retail demand for gold from Chinese consumers is keeping the yellow metal buoyant despite selling from Western speculators. Such indicates Chinese citizens are very concerned about the health of the Chinese economy and seeking safe-haven gold.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to lower openings today in New York.

This week comes the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday afternoon. No change in U.S. monetary policy is expected at this week’s FOMC meeting that begins Tuesday morning.

Market watchers are also on alert for signs of a possible U.S./China tariff détente or changes to the looming reciprocal tariffs set to kick in in early July following a three-month delay. President Trump over the weekend said new trade agreements may be announced as early as this week, asserting his personal control over the process. “We’re negotiating with many countries but at the end of this I’ll set my own deals because I set the deal, they don’t set the deal, I set the deal,” he told reporters aboard Air Force One.

The key outside markets today and see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are weaker and trading around $57.75 a barrel. OPEC has agreed to raise its collective crude oil production starting in June, reports said. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently at 4.306%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. services PMI, the ISM report on business services, and the employment trends index.

Gold price sharply up on safe-haven demand, weaker USDX_1

Technically, June gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,400.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $3,209.40. First resistance is seen at $3,350.00 and then at $3,370.00. First support is seen at $3,300.00 and then at the overnight low of $3,243.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

Gold price sharply up on safe-haven demand, weaker USDX_2

May silver futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show more power soon to keep it. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $33.69. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $30.00. First resistance is seen at Friday’s high of $32.675 and then at $33.00. Next support is seen at $32.00 and then at last week’s low of $31.685. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

Source: kitco

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Adam

Stocks

Economic

A historic stock-market run came to a halt as President Donald Trump’s latest tariff remarks provided little relief to investors bracing for the impacts of his trade war on the economy and corporate earnings.

Not even data showing a pick-up in growth at US service providers was able to buoy sentiment, with the S&P 500 halting its longest advance in about 20 years. While Trump suggested some trade deals could come as soon as this week, he signaled no imminent accord with China. As the president extended his restrictive policies on US imports to the entertainment sector, shares of companies like Netflix Inc. and Walt Disney Co. fell.

Recent economic data seems to have assuaged market concerns of a recession, but the outcome of Trump’s tariff war has yet to be felt. For several market observers, tariffs will eventually slow the US economy as supply chains are upended and consumer confidence tumbles, with the increases in levies possibly delivering at least a temporary inflation shock.

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“The S&P 500 erased the tariff selloff with one of its strongest bursts of short-term momentum of the past 20 years, but it remains to be seen whether that can translate into a fresh bull market,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.

Attention will soon shift to this week’s Federal Reserve decision after bond traders dialed back rate-cut bets that had steadily mounted as Trump’s trade war unleashed havoc in financial markets.

As long as the labor market holds firm, the central bank can more easily justify the standing pat. While Jerome Powell and his colleagues would typically welcome the latest inflation cooling, higher US duties on imports risk upending the progress on that front.

The S&P 500 fell 0.7%. The Nasdaq 100 slid 0.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2%. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose four basis points to 4.35%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%.

Oil slipped as OPEC+ agreed to a bumper output increase. Taiwan’s dollar surged the most since 1988 on bets authorities might allow it to appreciate to help reach a trade deal with the US.

Corporate Highlights:

Palantir Technologies Inc. investors have been betting that the results coming after the markets close on Monday will be another blowout, but the recent run up has given the stock a high bar to clear.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. followed Chief Executive Officer Warren Buffett’s recommendation, naming Vice Chairman Greg Abel to replace the billionaire as CEO, effective Jan. 1.

Tyson Foods Inc.’s earnings jumped more than expected as increased profits from chicken sales outweighed another quarter of losses at the company’s beef business.

Shell Plc is working with advisers to evaluate a potential acquisition of BP Plc, though it’s waiting for further stock and oil price declines before deciding whether to pursue a bid, according to people familiar with the matter.

Sunoco LP agreed to acquire Parkland Corp., one of the largest owners of gas stations in Canada, for about $9.1 billion including debt.

Investment firm 3G Capital will acquire footwear maker Skechers USA Inc. for $9.4 billion.

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

The S&P 500 fell 0.7% as of 10:36 a.m. New York time

The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.9%

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%

The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.2%

The MSCI World Index fell 0.5%

Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1.5%

The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.5%

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%

The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1333

The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3303

The Japanese yen rose 0.8% to 143.83 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin fell 2.1% to $93,761.67

Ether fell 2% to $1,800.23

Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.35%

Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.53%

Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.51%

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.6% to $56.78 a barrel

Spot gold rose 2.3% to $3,313.54 an ounce

Source: Bloomberg

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Damon

Economic

The ISM Services increased 0.8 points to 51.6 in April, beating expectations of a small decline. Eleven of eighteen industries reported growth in April, up from ten in March, though still below the 14 reporting expansion in January and February.

Business activity declined, falling 2.2 points to 53.7. New orders increased to 52.3, ending a streak of monthly declines and reversing a particularly weak reading (50.4) last month. The imports index registered a large decline (-8.3), falling to 44.3 and sending the sub-index into contractionary territory.

The employment index increased to 49.0 but remains in contractionary territory, suggesting services payrolls continued to decline in April. However, the employment index has signaled contraction several times since early 2024, while the labor market continued to expand.

The prices paid sub-component jumped up to 65.1 from 60.9 April, suggesting price pressures are heating up in the service sector.

Key Implications

The service sector expanded in April, but the details are less encouraging. While the overall index improved, business activity declined and it looks as though the service sector is feeling the effects of tariffs coming into place in April, cutting activity and imports at the same time.

Most respondents in this survey reported challenges to their operations and pricing from tariffs. The combination of areas which registered gains (new export orders, inventories, and prices) is indicative of businesses trying to get ahead of retaliatory tariffs or other policy changes and could foreshadow a deeper decline in the coming months. More importantly, the sharp increase in prices, coupled with the decline in activity, suggests the service sector could also be moving towards stagflation, something we have already seen in manufacturing.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Key takeaways:

XRP forms a bearish descending triangle on the daily chart, risking a 45% drop to $1.20.

Declining daily active addresses signal reduced transaction activity and liquidity.

A breakout above $2.18 could invalidate the bearish pattern.

The XRP price flashes warning signs as a bearish technical pattern emerges on its daily chart, coinciding with declining network activity.

XRP descending triangle hints at 45% price drop

The XRP price chart has been forming a descending triangle pattern on its daily chart since its late 2024 rally, characterized by a flat support level and a downward-sloping resistance line.

A descending triangle chart pattern that forms after a strong uptrend is seen as a bearish reversal indicator. As a rule, the setup resolves when the price breaks below the flat support level and falls by as much as the triangle’s maximum height. XRP Price Risks 45% Decline to $1.20 — Here’s Why_1

XRP Price Risks 45% Decline to $1.20 — Here’s Why_1

XRP/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bulls are struggling to keep XRP above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), currently at $2.18, signaling a lack of strength.

If this trend continues, a close below the moving averages, namely the 50-day SMA and the 100-day SMA at $2.06, could sink the XRP/USDT pair to the psychological support level at $2.00.

If this support fails, XRP price could tumble toward the downside target at around $1.20 by the end of May, down 45% from current price levels.

XRP’s descending triangle target echoes an earlier analysis that warned of a possible decline to as low as $1.61 if key support levels didn’t hold.

Conversely, a clear breakout above the triangle’s resistance line at $2.18 would invalidate the bearish structure, putting XRP in a good position to rally toward the $3.00 psychological level.

Declining XRP network activity

The XRP Ledger has experienced a significant drop in network activity compared to Q1 2025. Onchain data from Glassnode shows that the network’s daily active addresses (DAAs) are now far below March’s peak.

On March 19, the ledger recorded a robust 608,000 DAAs, reflecting high user engagement and transaction activity. However, this metric crashed in April and early May, as shown in the chart below.

With only around 30,000 daily active addresses, user transactions have decreased, possibly signaling reduced interest or a lack of confidence in XRP’s near-term outlook. XRP Price Risks 45% Decline to $1.20 — Here’s Why_2

XRP Price Risks 45% Decline to $1.20 — Here’s Why_2

XRP Daily Active Addresses. Source: Glassnode

Historically, declines in network activity typically signal upcoming price stagnation or drops, as lower transaction volume reduces liquidity and buying pressure.

Meanwhile, XRP’s 1.17% drop over the last 24 hours is accompanied by a 30% increase in daily trading volume to $2 billion. Trading volume increases amid a price decline can be interpreted as profit-taking or repositioning by crypto traders as they wait for XRP’s next move.

Analyst Dom commented on the increased selling volume, pointing out that “a large amount of market selling over the last week” is why XRP failed to sustain upward moves. XRP Price Risks 45% Decline to $1.20 — Here’s Why_3