US Dollar: China Allows Faster USD/CNY Gains as Selling Pressure Hits Greenback

President Donald Trump said he was considering staging a national Republican convention ahead of the midterm elections, in a bid to rally support behind his party ahead of what is expected to be a hard-fought battle for control of the House of Representatives.

“I am thinking of recommending a National Convention to the Republican Party, just prior to the Midterms. It has never been done before. STAY TUNED!!” Trump wrote Thursday in a social media post.

Political conventions are traditionally held ahead of presidential elections for parties to formalize the nominations of their candidates. There wouldn’t be a similar function ahead of congressional elections where candidates are determined in primaries, but the events traditionally generate massive media attention and a convention could provide the GOP an opportunity to promote their message as voters begin weighing their options.

Control of the House of Representatives is expected to come down to the wire in the 2026 midterm elections, with the Cook Political Report projecting 202 seats as leaning, likely or solid for Democrats and 215 seats similarly favoring Republican. Victory in 218 seats is enough to secure control of the lower chamber. In the Senate, Republicans currently hold a three-seat advantage.

Trump has already spent recent weeks encouraging governors and lawmakers in Republican-controlled states including Texas and Indiana to undertake redistricting efforts designed to increase the number of congressional districts that favor candidates from his party. Some Democratic officials, including California Governor Gavin Newsom, are vowing to do the same in their states.

Traditionally, the parties of incumbent presidents fare badly in midterm elections — a fate Trump is eager to avoid as he pushes to implement a broad restructuring of the federal government. A Quinnipiac University poll published this week found that just 37% of Americans approved of the job Trump was doing as president, with 55% of respondents saying they did not approve of his performance.

Source: Bloomberg

Crude Oil Slips as Summer Demand Wanes and Russian Supply Resumes

OPEC Supply Moves Take Back Seat to Seasonal Demand Drop

Geopolitical Tensions Build but Market Impact Muted

Oil Prices Forecast: Bearish Near-Term Bias Below Key Resistance

Source: fxempire

The pattern will be confirmed once the price breaks above the upper trend line around $124,900, coinciding with the new all-time highs reached on Aug. 14. The measured target for this pattern is $144,200, or a 27% increase from the current level.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

An accompanying chart shows a similar scenario in April when Bitcoin bottomed out at $74,000. The BB oscillator dropped to oversold conditions before Bitcoin started recovering and is up 51% since.

Bitcoin STH MVRV Bollinger Bands. Source: Checkonchain

Source: Cointelegraph

Further weakness in the U.S. housing sector as fewer potential home buyers enter the market is expected to provide safe-haven demand for gold as prices test critical resistance levels above $3,400 an ounce.

The U.S. Pending Home Sales Index, published by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Tuesday, fell 0.4% in July, compared to the 0.8% decline in June. The data declined in line with economist expectations.

For the year pending home sales are down 0.7%, the NAR said.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, said that although market conditions are improving, it could take some time before sales pick up again.

“"Even with modest improvements in mortgage rates, housing affordability, and inventory, buyers still remain hesitant," he said in the report. "Buying a home is often the most expensive purchase people will make in their lives. This means that going under contract is not a decision home buyers make quickly. Instead, people take their time to ensure the timing and home are right for them."

The gold market is not seeing much reaction to the weak housing market data. Spot gold last traded at $3,406.50 an ounce, up 0.32% on the day.

Economists closely watch pending home sales because the report is a leading indicator of existing home sales, given that contracts are signed a few months before the homes are actually sold.

The U.S. housing market has been trying to stabilize after experiencing significant weakness over the past two years. Many potential buyers have been priced out due to rising home prices and higher mortgage rates.

Source: Kitco

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has captured the attention of the entire world, drawing concern, debate, and urgency from policymakers, analysts, and citizens alike.Despite widespread awareness and ongoing efforts to seek a peaceful resolution, the ultimate outcome of this war remains shrouded in uncertainty. As the fighting persists and the stakes continue to rise, it becomes crucial to carefully examine the possible trajectories that could lead to the war’s conclusion.In doing so, two stark and contrasting scenarios stand out as the most plausible, each representing a radically different path forward.

These scenarios are not merely hypothetical; they carry profound implications not only for Ukraine and its immediate neighbors but also for the broader stability of Europe, the security of NATO countries, and the global geopolitical order. Understanding these divergent possibilities is essential for anticipating future developments and for shaping diplomatic and strategic responses aimed at preventing further escalation or catastrophe.

Scenario One: Acknowledgment of Defeat and Surrender by the West

The first possibility hinges on a sobering and potentially unsettling reality: the Western alliance of the United Kingdom, the European Union, NATO, and the United States should finally recognize the reality that they have tragically lost the fight against Russia in Ukraine. This recognition would not be made lightly; rather, it would be the result of a combination of factors such as prolonged conflict, mounting casualties, significant resource depletion, and diplomatic fatigue that have eroded Western resolve and capacity to sustain their current level of support. Ultimately, this scenario would necessitate a formal acknowledgment of defeat, leading to a strategic and possibly humiliating surrender, signaling an end to their worthless military and political efforts to oppose Russian advances.

Such an outcome implies that the West’s military interventions, economic sanctions, and diplomatic efforts have failed to change the fundamental dynamics on the ground. The prolonged conflict, with its heavy toll on both human lives and national resources, would have culminated in a consensus that further confrontation is futile or counterproductive. Recognizing defeat would most likely lead to negotiations, compromises, and concessions that could reshape the territorial and political landscape of the region. This could include the recognition of Russian-controlled territories as part of Russia, or a negotiated settlement that cedes significant influence to Moscow.

This scenario would also entail a vital shift in regional alliances and borders, marking the end of Ukraine’s aspirations for full integration into Western institutions. It would result in a realignment of security arrangements and a recalibration of Western policies towards Russia, which would finally acknowledge Russia’s renewed regional importance and influence. Ultimately, this outcome would bring an end to active hostilities and redefine the balance of power in Europe and beyond. The global order would see a shift towards a more multipolar world, where Russia’s enhanced position influences international diplomacy and security policies for years to come.

Scenario Two: A Devastating Russian Non-Nuclear Strike

The second more provocative and alarming possibility involves Russia resorting to the use of its advanced non-nuclear weapon systems, specifically the deployment of the non-nuclear version of the Oreshnik missile system, targeting Ukraine and one aggressive NATO member country such as Germany, France, Poland, or the UK, thereby achieving a decisive and devastating victory over western aggression. This aggressive attack would be designed to inflict maximum destruction and psychological shock.

This scenario assumes that barring the possibility of the West’s surrender, Russia’s only remaining option is to escalate the conflict by deploying such a formidable weapon to indiscriminately obliterate Ukrainian infrastructure and military targets. The use of a weapon like the Oreshnik which is indubitably recognized as a highly destructive missile capable of delivering a significant payload over long distances would mark a new and dangerous phase in the conflict, aimed at delivering a crushing blow to Ukraine’s military capacity and civilian infrastructure.

The implications of such an act are profoundly chilling. It would signal a willingness by Russia to cross the threshold into large-scale destruction, possibly as a show of strength or as a means to force Western powers into concessions.Importantly, Russia’s use of such devastating weaponry is intended not only to break Ukraine’s resistance but also to test the resolve and limits of Western alliances. It will serve as a strategic warning, demonstrating that Russia is willing to unleash destruction on a scale that could also threaten member states or their interests, thereby challenging the post-Cold War security architecture of Europe.

Crucially, such a strike on a NATO country could absolutely trigger a wave of terror and paralysis across Europe. The severity and immediacy of the attack is aimed at inducing extreme fear among European nations, potentially leading to a strategic stalemate where retaliation becomes unthinkable, either due to the devastating consequences or the chaos that ensues.

This scenario hinges on the premise that Russia’s willingness to escalate to such an extent would effectively paralyze NATO and European responses, thereby ending the war through sheer overwhelming force and fear. Simply put, such an ultimate and decisive attack would cancel all the risks of hostility escalation and broader conflict thereby inaugurating and guaranteeing global peace and security once and for all.

Potential Outcomes of the Ukraine Conflict: Pathways Toward Peace or Catastrophe

Both scenarios underscore the deeply complex and perilous nature of the Ukraine conflict, illuminating the wide spectrum of potential outcomes and the profound risks involved.

The first scenario suggests a geopolitical recognition of defeat by the West, i.e., the EU, the UK, the US, and NATO, that leads to negotiations, compromise, and a reconfiguration of regional and global power dynamics. Such an outcome will pave the way for a new geopolitical order based on diplomacy, stability, and the respect of national sovereignty thereby ending the hostilities through a negotiated settlement that preserves some degree of stability and prevents further bloodshed. This scenario emphasizes the importance of diplomatic engagement, patience, and international cooperation in steering the conflict toward a peaceful resolution, even amid ongoing hostilities.

In stark contrast, the second scenario presents a terrifying and catastrophic possibility: that the conflict escalates into extreme destruction through heightened military measures, including the use of devastating conventional or non-nuclear weapons. This path would likely result in widespread demolition and massive civilian casualties. The prospect of such escalation underscores the dangerous brinkmanship and the extremely damaging potential inherent in modern warfare, where the line between conventional and catastrophic action can become dangerously blurred. It highlights the urgent need for restraint, diplomatic dialogue, and international mechanisms to prevent the conflict from spiraling into a devastating, uncontrolled escalation that could have global repercussions.

Conclusion

As the war continues to unfold, the international community must grapple with these stark and contrasting possibilities, each representing a different endgame with profound and far-reaching consequences. The first offers a hopeful vision rooted in diplomacy and the potential for a peaceful resolution, while the second serves as a grim reminder of how escalation can lead to catastrophic destruction. The challenge lies in guiding the conflict toward the most desirable outcome: one that minimizes human suffering and preserves regional and global stability.

Ultimately, the hope remains for a peaceful resolution, ideally achieved through the formal surrender of the obvious losers, i.e., the EU, the UK, the US, and NATO, thereby preventing the horrific outcome envisioned in the second scenario. Such a resolution would require steadfast diplomatic efforts, international cooperation, and a shared commitment to peace. It is essential that all parties prioritize negotiations and constructive engagement to avoid the devastating consequences of escalation, ensuring that the conflict ends not in destruction and chaos, but in a way that safeguards human lives, regional stability, and global security. Only through such concerted efforts can the international community hope to steer the course of this conflict away from catastrophe and toward a sustainable peace.

Source: Zero Hedge

Source: cnbc