UN Sanctions on Iran to be Reimposed, France's Macron Says

Political

Energy

Summary:

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said later on Thursday that he had presented a "reasonable and actionable plan to E3/EU counterparts to avert an unnecessary and avoidable crisis in the coming days."

European powers will likely reimpose international sanctions on Iran by the end of the month after their latest round of talks with Tehran aimed at preventing them were deemed not serious, France's President Emmanuel Macron said on Thursday.

Britain, France and Germany, the so-called E3, launched a 30-day process at the end of August to reimpose U.N. sanctions. They set conditions for Tehran to meet during September to convince them to delay the "snapback mechanism".

The offer by the E3 to put off the snapback for up to six months to enable serious negotiations is conditional on Iran restoring access for U.N. nuclear inspectors - who would also seek to account for Iran's large stock of enriched uranium - and engaging in talks with the U.S.

When asked in an interview on Israel's Channel 12 whether the snapback was a done deal, Macron said:

"Yes. I think so because the latest news from the Iranians is not serious."

In a post on X, Araqchi said the proposal "addresses genuine concerns" and described it as mutually beneficial, but did not provide further details on what it entails.

E3 foreign ministers, the European Union foreign policy chief and their Iranian counterpart held a phone call on Wednesday, in which diplomats on both sides said there had been no substantial progress though the door was still open to try and reach a deal before the deadline expired.

The 15-member U.N. Security Council will vote on Friday on a resolution that would permanently lift U.N. sanctions on Iran - a move it is required to take after the E3 launched the process.

The resolution is likely to fail to get the minimum nine votes needed to pass, say diplomats, and if it did it would be vetoed by the United States, Britain or France.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Central Bank

Forex

New Zealand's finance minister is expected to announce a new central bank chief in the coming weeks, with economists hoping the move will signal the end of a tumultuous period in which both the bank's governor and chairman unexpectedly departed.

Whoever takes the reins of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand faces a tough task: repairing the reputational damage done by a deep downturn in the economy, while defending the bank's independence from a critical government.

"We face a test of trust and confidence in us as an organisation," interim Governor Christian Hawkesby said in a speech earlier this month.

"I want to assure you that we are resolutely focused on our mandate of delivering low and stable inflation in the medium term, and a resilient and enabling financial system,” added Hawkesby, who has confirmed he wants to remain in the job.

Former governor Adrian Orr sometimes wrong-footed financial markets with policy decisions and shocked them by resigning suddenly in March following a dispute with the government about punishing cuts to the central bank's budget.

The controversy eventually claimed the scalp of the RBNZ's chair Neil Quigley, who oversaw operations at the bank. Finance Minister Nicola Willis said she would have asked him to resign if he had not quit.

The centre-right government has become more vocal in other areas, with Prime Minister Christopher Luxton publicly saying he had told the RBNZ what he views they should do with interest rates.

Such pressure, reminiscent of what the U.S. Federal Reserve is facing, is unusual for the RBNZ, whose independence has largely been respected by previous governments.

"In the past, central banks (globally) were largely left alone to do that, but now it's becoming more challenging,” said John McDermott, who was chief economist at the RBNZ until 2019.

"Some politicians just want to take over... and there's been an element of that in New Zealand as well," without elaborating.

McDermott, who heads economic and public policy institute Motu, has been named by some local media as a possible applicant for the role. He declined to comment on the reports.

IN A STATE

The brace of resignations cap a difficult few years for the once highly regarded central bank.

The bank has faced criticism for abetting a surge in inflation by pumping billions of dollars of stimulus during the COVID-19 pandemic. It was then forced to engineer a recession with high interest rates to get prices back under control.

An internal review concluded its dramatic easing during COVID-19 was warranted, but that cut little ice with consumers and borrowers suffering a cost-of-living crisis.

The RBNZ has since cut rates by a steep 250 basis points to 3.0%, and flagged more easing to come. Yet, consumer and business confidence remains low, unemployment is at a near five-year-high and a record number of New Zealanders are heading offshore.

McDermott said the RBNZ needed to reestablish that it can manage inflation over the long haul.

"Trust is hard to win and easy to lose. And so it's going to be a long journey," he said.

WHO'S NEXT?

Along with McDermott, Dominick Stephens, currently chief economist at Treasury, is also a potential applicant for the top job. He declined to comment on his interest in the role.

Toni Gravelle, deputy governor at the Bank of Canada, said he was "no longer in the running."

Oliver Hartwich, executive director at New Zealand Initiative, said he believed an external candidate might be more successful at turning things around.

"It'll be easier for someone who's not connected to the current regime, and potentially even a foreigner, coming in and saying: ‘Well, I'm not here to make friends, and I don't have to pay too much attention to what's historically happened here. I will just implement what needs to be done'," Hartwich said.

Arthur Grimes, RBNZ chair until 2013, said holding onto senior staff with economics expertise was key.

"People who are just going to do a quiet job and run things, essentially technocrats, in the background," he said. “If you don't hear about the Reserve Bank from one month to the next or one quarter to the next, it's doing a good job."

In a wishlist of reforms, Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold said the next governor could improve transparency and accountability by introducing formal votes at all monetary policy decisions and holding a press conference after every one.

"Explicit votes, combined with an explanation of each member's rationale, would clarify both the options under consideration and the level of support for each," argued Eckhold.

"This reform would help anchor expectations and potentially reduce market volatility surrounding policy announcements."

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Political

Stocks

U.S. antitrust enforcers are on guard against anticompetitive behavior in the artificial intelligence sector as part of the Trump administration's plan to cement U.S. AI dominance, a Department of Justice official said in New York on Thursday.

Protecting competition in the industry supports innovation, Assistant Attorney General Gail Slater said at a conference at Fordham University, signaling that President Donald Trump's antitrust enforcers are looking out for anticompetitive conduct and consolidation.

"The competitive dynamics of each layer of the AI stack and how they interrelate, with a particular eye towards exclusionary behavior that forecloses access to key inputs and distribution channels, are legitimate areas for antitrust inquiry," she said.

Access to data is one area the DOJ will monitor, Slater said. A judge in Washington recently ordered Alphabet's Google to share some of its search data with competitors including AI companies, in order to boost competition with its online search engine. Google has said it will appeal.

Slater said that demand for data could drive mergers or business combinations between companies and their suppliers, known as vertical integration, "especially in industries where downstream businesses may have access to valuable and sensitive data like healthcare data."

"We may also increasingly see the desire to acquire data, or to deprive rivals of data, play a role in driving transactions," she said.

Slater also said that open source AI models can boost competition, something Trump's AI action plan envisioned as a way to spread American technology.

"Of course, a truly open-source model must be one that is not unilaterally maintained by a single vendor that exerts unwarranted influence and impose restrictions," she said.

Antitrust enforcers during President Joe Biden's administration expressed similar concerns about AI competition, and scrutinized Big Tech partnerships with AI startups.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Political

The Securities and Exchange Commission has paved the way for a flurry of new crypto-related exchange-traded funds.

The SEC late Wednesday announced that it approved generic listing standards for commodity-based exchange-traded products, fast-tracking the approval for crypto funds. By approving the standards across Nasdaq, Cboe BZX, and NYSE Arca, the SEC has eliminated the need for individual approvals under Section 19(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Prior to the new guidance, spot crypto fund issuers were subject to a lengthy application process that required public comment and SEC review, which is why most of the crypto ETFs that have launched to date covered covered bitcoin and ether, the two largest cryptocurrencies by market cap.

The streamlined approach is expected to shorten launch timelines, cut administrative costs, and and make more cryptocurrencies available to investors in an ETF wrapper. The new standards came with the approval of the first multi-crypto asset ETF in the U.S., the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund, or GLDC, which in addition to crypto and ether holds XRP, solana and cardano.

Why This Matters to You

Investors will likely see a tidal wave of new crypto ETF launches starting in October, with all manner of digital assets that have never before landed in an investment vehicle. Think memecoin ETFs that hold doge and trump, and multi-crypto asset funds aimed at delivering on a theme like tokenization.

The main listing criteria for a crypto ETF will be the existence of a futures market for the underlying asset on a regulated exchange, such as Coinbase, for a period of at least six months, according to Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart. Crypto ETF offerings that fall outside the framework can still go through the traditional approval process via individual filings.

The latest changes are seen by the crypto industry as a step forward for continued regulatory clarity on crypto from the SEC and the Trump administration. They remove a boundary between firms seeking to put a range of crypto assets into a new product and investors who might be interested in such products.

The mass approval of pending crypto ETF applications had been predicted by Seyffart and other experts. "We're gonna be off to the races in a matter of weeks," Seyffart posted on X following the SEC approval of the new framework.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan noted that there was a massive increase in ETF listings when generic listing standards were created for traditional ETFs in the past. "The pace of ETF launches rose from ~117/year to ~370/year," he posted on X.

Digital assets platform and services provider Galaxy says 10 tokens currently meet the criteria for an expedited listing: Bitcoin, Dogecoin, Solana, Litecoin, Chainlink, Stellar, Avalanche, Shiba Inu, Polkadot and Hedera. (A dogecoin ETF launched today.) ADA and XRP will also qualify shortly, according to Galaxy. Several applications to launch ETFs holding those coins have already been submitted to the SEC.

The SEC approved spot bitcoin ETFs in Jan. 2024, more than 10 years after Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss first submitted an application for one. Ether ETFs were approved that July. Bitcoin ETFs have about $150 billion in assets under management, while ether ETFs have just under $30 billion.

Source: Investopedia

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Adam

Economic

The highest US tariff among developed nations dealt a severe blow to Swiss exports there, according to the first reading since the 39% levy took effect, but increased shipments to other countries could offset some of the fallout.

Foreign sales to America excluding gold, adjusted for seasonal swings, were 22% lower in August than in July. That includes significantly fewer watch exports. Imports from the world’s biggest economy held steady.

The US trade deficit with Switzerland narrowed by roughly a third to 2.06 billion francs ($2.6 billion), from 2.93 billion francs the previous month. August’s reading is the second lowest since 2020, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Swiss customs office data.

Gold exports to the US collapsed even more markedly, dropping 99% compared to July, to 0.3 tons.

Swiss Exports to US Collapsed in First Month of 39% Tariff_1

The significant imbalance in goods trade was the reason for US President Donald Trump’s Aug. 1 announcement of the tariff, which took effect on Aug. 8.

Still, total Swiss exports were largely unfazed by the hit to US trade. Higher shipments to European countries — including France, Austria and Poland — as well as Canada and Mexico helped to offset the dent, resulting in a retreat of just 1% from a month earlier.

Goods on which the US tariff applies saw significant declines. Compared to July, Switzerland exported 8.6% fewer watches. Pharmaceuticals — so far exempt from the levy — saw a 1.3% decrease.

A last-ditch attempt by the Swiss government in early August to sway the US President proved unsuccessful, though talks have continued since and Bern is still pushing to secure a lower rate. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said last week that Washington will “probably get a deal done with Switzerland” — though he didn’t provide details.

Negotiations with the US are a balancing act for Swiss negotiators, especially on the issue of agriculture which is domestically sensitive due to a belief in self-reliance. In an interview on Wednesday, the head of the Swiss farmers’ lobby rejected ideas to allow American producers to import more beef or poultry.

While the Swiss economy has shown resilience so far, the government said that it expects slower growth this year due to the US levies. Switzerland is trying to diversify its dependencies, including with a new free trade agreement with the South American Mercosur bloc that was signed this week.

Source: Bloomberg

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Political

Senator Elizabeth Warren pressed Attorney General Pam Bondi for details on whether Binance complies with its 2023 settlement agreement, as Bloomberg News reported on Sept. 18.

Warren cited inadequate responses from federal prosecutors regarding the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange in a letter co-authored by Democratic senators Mazie Hirono and Richard Blumenthal.

The letter demanded confirmation of Binance’s adherence to “ongoing requirements” from the $4.3 billion deal that resolved money-laundering and sanctions violations.

The senators criticized the Justice Department for failing to “meaningfully answer” questions Warren initially raised in May about settlement compliance.

Earlier this month, prosecutors confirmed Binance had paid required financial penalties but noted the company maintains continuing obligations under the agreement, including compliance program improvements.

However, the lawmakers wrote that “this response did not confirm whether or not Binance was, in fact, complying with these ongoing requirements.”

Monitor removal under consideration

The inquiry comes as prosecutors are weighing whether to remove Binance’s court-appointed compliance monitor, a key component of the 2023 settlement.

Authorities installed the monitor to oversee the exchange’s adherence to anti-money laundering and sanctions compliance requirements.

Warren’s letter also sought details on interactions between Binance and President Donald Trump administration officials, reflecting concerns about the exchange’s connections to World Liberty Financial.

Binance’s late 2023 agreement with federal authorities resolved criminal charges related to facilitating transactions for sanctioned entities and failing to implement adequate anti-money laundering programs.

The deal required the exchange to pay $4.3 billion in penalties and accept ongoing regulatory oversight.

The settlement marked one of the largest enforcement actions against a cryptocurrency firm, as prosecutors sought to address compliance failures that allowed illicit financial activities to flourish on the platform.

Also, as a part of the settlement, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao served a four-month prison sentence. He was released in September 2024 and sought a presidential pardon in May.

The senators’ pressure campaign stressed ongoing congressional scrutiny of cryptocurrency regulation, despite the recent regulatory moves led by Trump signing the GENIUS Act into law.

Source: Cryptoslate

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Adam

Economic

Since being laid off from her human resources job in the hospitality industry in May, Sashi Cayard has tried it all: walking into businesses to hand over her resume in person, applying to a slew of positions online, venturing outside of her industry, and contacting hiring managers directly.

Still, nothing. The 26-year-old from Miami even tried appealing to politicians for help.

“The job market is so bad that when I went to Washington, D.C., I dropped off copies of my resume to my state representatives and was like, ‘Hey, can you help me find a job? There are no jobs in your district, and half the postings you see are ghost postings,’” Cayard said in a video posted to TikTok in August.

She never heard back.

Now, some would say — finally — that economic data is catching up to what job seekers like Cayard have known for months about the state of the US job market. The unemployment rate, which had been hovering between 4% and 4.2% since May 2024, broke out of that narrow range in August to hit 4.3%, the highest level since October 2021. Revisions to jobs data showed the country actually shed 13,000 positions in June, the first monthly net job loss since December 2020 while adding nearly a million fewer jobs than initially reported for the year prior through March 2025.

“If you are currently employed and you’re happy with your employment, you’re probably feeling OK because that layoff rate is still pretty low,” said Allison Shrivastava, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab. “But if you’re trying to get into the labor market or switch jobs, you’re going to be having a really difficult time.”

Cayard, who has a bachelor’s degree in hospitality and tourism management and a master’s degree in human resources management, started applying for other roles immediately after losing her last position. She was especially concerned about healthcare: Staying on her employer’s plan through COBRA costs around $800 a month. So far, she’s put in over 500 applications, but she's only reached the interview stage for two jobs.

So it goes in a no-hire, no-fire job market: The employed are staying at jobs they might otherwise leave rather than face a brutal market, and the unemployed are finding they’re unable to get a foot in the door as companies keep from hiring due to economic uncertainty.

“Applying for jobs is a full-time job,” Cayard said. “People ask, ‘What are you doing?’ I’m trying to just keep on keeping on.’”

A dizzying fall

There’s reason to be concerned. The share of out-of-work Americans who have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks reached 25.7% in August, a level last seen in early 2022 before job openings reached a record high amid a red-hot labor market.

“Jobs aren’t being shed, necessarily — layoff rates are still pretty low — but we aren’t adding a lot of jobs to the economy, and people also aren’t quitting their jobs,” Shrivastava said.

Workers are coming off from the highs of an extremely strong post-pandemic job market, making this fall particularly dizzying, Shrivastava noted.

Meanwhile, unemployment is nowhere near where it was during the pandemic, inflation is far below where it was in 2022, and consumer spending remains strong, though that’s being driven by high-income consumers, leaving questions on how long these bad feelings may last.

Sentiment about finding a job, meanwhile, is already plummeting. The New York Fed’s measure of workers’ perceived probability of landing a job after losing their current position is at its lowest level, according to survey data going back to June 2013. The University of Michigan’s survey of consumers, meanwhile, shows the share of respondents expecting higher unemployment in the next 12 months is at its highest since the Great Recession.

For those stuck searching for work, the current reality is a roller coaster of applications that seems to lead people off a cliff. Some postings are “ghost jobs” that never appear to get filled at all. And some applications are reviewed by AI, meaning an hour of tailoring a resume and cover letter may result in a rejection in minutes.

Felicia Enriquez, a 47-year-old in Los Angeles, has been unemployed for about 14 months after unexpectedly losing her job as a paralegal and is consistently looking for work. She’s picked up freelance work as a journalist to keep herself busy, but she’s still six months behind on rent.

While initially looking for work as a paralegal, she’s struggled to find a position because she doesn’t speak Spanish, which she finds is often a requirement in her area. So she broadened her search and recently applied for a position at CVS.

“I’m willing to take anything at this point,” Enriquez said.

Tyler Tiede, a 27-year-old in Rochester, N.Y., is also deep in the job hunt after stepping away from his software engineering position in late November for a personal hiatus. Tiede, who has a physics degree, was casually looking for work right away, but ramped up his search in June.

In the beginning, he was only applying for software engineering positions — competing with both computer science graduates who can’t find work and recently laid-off tech workers. After applying to hundreds of software engineering roles, he’s started to look for roles as a sales engineer or product engineer and is pivoting to IT and system administrator work. He’s also delivering orders through Uber Eats and DoorDash.

Tiede is lucky to have a support system behind him, including his girlfriend, he said. But being unemployed can challenge “your opinion of yourself on a day-to-day basis.”

“I’ve tracked, like, my last 100 applications, and as of a couple weeks ago, I think 60% of them just never even replied to me, ever, and then 40% rejected me,” Tiede said. “You either don’t hear back anything, or they just say, ‘Oh, we went with someone else.’ You don’t really get real feedback on the reason why.”

Shrivastava said she can understand workers’ frustration with a frozen job market. She recommended that people out of work use this time to upskill and leverage their network where possible.

“You’re probably not going to be as penalized as you would be in a thriving labor market for having gaps in your resume,” Shrivastava said. “People are pretty understanding, given that we’re kind of all experiencing the economy together.”