UK Rate Cuts on Hold? BoE Faces Inflation Dilemma

Henry Thompson

Traders' Opinions

Remarks of Officials

Data Interpretation

Economic

Central Bank

Political

Summary:

Facing stubborn wage growth, the Bank of England is expected to hold rates, prolonging uncertainty for cuts.

The Bank of England is widely expected to hold its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% this Thursday, signaling that while borrowing costs will likely fall this year, the timing and pace of cuts remain highly uncertain.

As Governor Andrew Bailey and his colleagues prepare their decision, they face a complex economic picture. While the UK's inflation rate is projected to fall, persistent underlying price pressures, particularly from wage growth, are keeping policymakers cautious and their options open.

The Bank of England in London, where the Monetary Policy Committee is set to make its latest interest rate decision.

A High-Stakes Balancing Act

Even after six rate cuts since mid-2024, the UK still has the highest official borrowing costs among the world's large, developed economies. This presents a challenge for Prime Minister Keir Starmer and finance minister Rachel Reeves, who are looking for ways to stimulate a sluggish economy.

However, the inflation side of the equation is equally challenging. December's inflation reading of 3.4% was also the highest in the Group of Seven (G7). Although forecasts suggest it will soon approach the Bank's 2% target, some officials fear that underlying pressures are still too strong to justify immediate easing.

"We expect Bank Rate to be cut twice this year," noted Sanjay Raja, Chief UK Economist at Deutsche Bank. "The timing of those rate cuts, however, is coming increasingly into question," he added, suggesting his forecast for cuts in March and June could be delayed.

Market Bets Shift as Rate Cut Hopes Fade

Investors have dramatically scaled back their expectations for rate cuts. The market is pricing in almost no chance of a reduction after this week's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting and sees less than a 50% probability of more than one cut throughout the year. This marks a significant reversal from mid-January when two quarter-point cuts were almost fully priced in.

This shift in sentiment was triggered by tentative signs of renewed momentum in the British economy and a broader pullback in expectations for rate cuts in the United States, which heavily influences UK financial markets.

The main focus for investors on Thursday will be any change in the BoE's official messaging. In December, the MPC stated that rates were "likely to continue on a gradual downward path" but warned that "judgements around further policy easing will become a closer call."

The Core Dilemma: Stubborn Wage Growth

The central concern for some policymakers is the resilience of wage growth. Despite a recent rise in unemployment, there are fears that the slowdown in pay increases could stall.

An annual BoE pay survey will be a key piece of data for the committee. MPC member Megan Greene said last month that she was worried about preliminary figures from the survey, which suggested pay settlements of around 3.5% for 2026. This is above the roughly 3% level considered consistent with achieving the 2% inflation target.

Governor Bailey has also acknowledged geopolitical risks, noting last month that the BoE was "very alert" to them, though market reaction to recent events has been muted.

A Divided Committee and an Uncertain Path Forward

The MPC's last decision in December was a narrow 5-4 vote to cut the Bank Rate, the fourth quarter-point reduction of 2025. Even then, most members signaled that the pace of easing could slow.

Recent signs of a tentative recovery among consumers and businesses may strengthen the case for a more cautious approach. Reflecting this shift, a Reuters poll of economists predicts a decisive 7-2 vote for holding rates this week.

Analysts remain divided on what comes next:

• Barclays expects one more cut in March, bringing the Bank Rate to 3.5%, followed by a pause. They cite "the caution on the committee that rates at that level may no longer be restrictive."

• Capital Economics, however, believes inflation will slow more than anticipated. Chief UK Economist Paul Dales forecasts three rate cuts in 2026, beginning in April.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Private PMI Signals Stronger Start To The Year

China’s manufacturing sector showed renewed momentum at the start of the year, with factory activity accelerating in January, according to a private survey released by S&P Global. The seasonally adjusted RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 from 50.1 in December, matching market expectations and marking the strongest reading since October, when the index stood at 50.6. As PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion, the latest data suggests that manufacturing conditions are stabilizing after months of uneven recovery.

This improvement reflects a combination of operational and timing factors rather than a broad-based surge in demand. Manufacturers ramped up production and shipments ahead of the extended Lunar New Year holiday, effectively front-loading output to manage expected shutdowns and labor absences later in February.

Production And Orders Drive Short Term Expansion

January saw a clear pickup in production as new orders increased both domestically and internationally. Total new orders expanded for the eighth consecutive month, while new export orders rebounded after previous weakness. Overseas demand was particularly strong from Southeast Asia, reinforcing the view that Chinese manufacturers continue to pivot toward non-U.S. markets amid lingering trade frictions.

The rise in workloads prompted firms to add staff to clear backlogs and meet delivery schedules, indicating a functional link between order inflows and employment decisions. This relationship underscores how operational pressures, rather than optimism about long-term growth, are shaping near-term business behavior.

Cost Pressures Undermine Business Confidence

Despite stronger activity, business sentiment deteriorated. The private survey showed confidence falling to a nine-month low, driven by concerns over rising costs and limited pricing power. Corporate expenses increased at the fastest pace in four months, pushing factory-gate prices higher for the first time since November 2024.

Metal prices surged during the survey period, sending input cost inflation to its highest level since September. According to Yao Yu, founder of RatingDog, sustained cost pressures without a commensurate recovery in demand would continue to compress profit margins. This dynamic highlights a structural tension: while production is expanding, profitability remains fragile, creating a disconnect between output growth and financial health.

Geopolitical Risks And Front-Loaded Activity

Analysts also point to rising geopolitical uncertainty as a factor behind January’s stronger numbers. Jingyi Pan of S&P Global Market Intelligence noted that firms may have accelerated production as a precautionary move, anticipating potential disruptions later in the year. This suggests that the PMI improvement is partly correlated with risk management behavior rather than a sustained upswing in end-user demand.

The private PMI contrasted with official data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, which showed manufacturing activity contracting unexpectedly to 49.3 in January from 50.1 in December. Officials attributed the decline to seasonal factors and softer global demand, noting that some factories suspended operations early to allow workers to travel home ahead of the Lunar New Year.

The divergence between the two surveys reflects differences in coverage. The RatingDog PMI focuses more heavily on smaller, export-oriented firms, which have benefited from overseas demand diversification, while the official PMI captures a broader spectrum of enterprises, including those more exposed to domestic weakness.

Holiday Effects And Policy Intentions

This year’s Lunar New Year holiday has been extended to nine days, from February 15 to February 23, as Beijing seeks to stimulate domestic consumption in travel, tourism, dining, and leisure. While this policy may support services activity, it also introduces short-term volatility in manufacturing output, complicating interpretation of early-year data.

The mixed PMI readings offer an early glimpse into the performance of the world’s second-largest economy in 2026. China met its 5 percent growth target last year, largely supported by strong exports as manufacturers redirected shipments away from the United States in response to higher tariffs. However, economists continue to warn of persistent deflationary pressures.

Retail sales growth has slowed to its weakest pace in three years, while fixed-asset investment fell 3.8 percent last year, marking its first annual decline in decades amid a prolonged property downturn and tightening local government finances. According to Jing Wang of Nomura, growth momentum is likely to remain weak in January due to fading stimulus effects and unresolved property sector stress.

Policy Support Seen As Insufficient

Chinese authorities unveiled measures last month aimed at lowering financing costs and encouraging credit demand among households and businesses. However, many analysts argue that these steps are insufficient to stabilize growth. Nomura estimates that significantly stronger policy action will be required if China is to achieve annual GDP growth above 4.5 percent in 2026.

The government is expected to announce its official growth target for the year at the National People’s Congress in March. Until then, the contrast between short-term manufacturing resilience and broader economic fragility is likely to persist, leaving markets cautious about the durability of China’s recovery.

Source: CNBC

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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RBA

Economic

Preliminary estimates for January indicate that the index increased by 4.6 per cent (on a monthlyaverage basis) in SDR terms, after increasing by 1.7 per cent in December. The non-rural, ruraland base metals subindices all increased in the month. In Australian dollar terms, the indexincreased by 2.6 per cent in January.

Over the past year, the index has increased by 2.6 per cent in SDR terms. Decreases in the pricesof iron ore, oil, and coking coal have been more than offset by increases in gold, lithium andrural commodity prices. The index has decreased by 0.9 per cent in Australian dollar terms.

Consistent with previous releases, preliminary estimates for iron ore, coking coal, and LNGexport prices are being used for the most recent months, based on market information. Using spotprices for the bulk commodities index, the index increased by 5.4 per cent in January in SDRterms, to be 5.3 per cent higher over the past year.

For further details regarding the construction of the index, please refer to'Changes to the RBA Index of Commodity Prices: 2013'in the March 2013 issue of the Bulletin and 'Weights for the Index of Commodity Prices' (April 2025).

Details are in the attached table and graph.

Index Of Commodity Prices – January 2026_1

Source: RBA

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Political

A Tactical Pause Rather Than De Escalation

Russia has confirmed its acceptance of a request from Donald Trump to temporarily halt attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. However, developments on the ground suggest this move represents a tactical adjustment rather than a broader de escalation. According to Ukrainian officials, Russian forces have shifted their operational focus toward logistics networks, including transport routes, supply hubs, and military support infrastructure.

This shift followed a mutual understanding between Moscow and Kyiv to refrain from striking each other’s energy facilities until February 1. While this arrangement reduced direct pressure on power generation assets, it did not fundamentally alter the intensity or objectives of Russia’s campaign.

Ukraine Observes A Change In Russian Targeting

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that on the night of January 29 there were no confirmed attacks on energy installations. However, he noted that some regional energy facilities were hit earlier that same day, underscoring the ambiguity surrounding the timing and scope of the pause.

More significantly, Zelensky emphasized that Ukrainian intelligence and battlefield assessments now indicate a clear Russian pivot toward logistics targets. This development reflects a cause and effect relationship rather than coincidence. By avoiding energy facilities under political pressure, Russian forces appear to be compensating by striking systems that sustain Ukraine’s military operations and civilian mobility.

Reciprocity And Ukraine’s Defensive Posture

Zelensky reaffirmed that Ukraine is prepared to uphold reciprocal commitments and has refrained from attacking Russian energy facilities during the agreed period. This restraint is positioned by Kyiv as both a diplomatic signal and a test of Moscow’s willingness to adhere to limited confidence building measures.

At the same time, Ukrainian authorities have accelerated internal coordination to strengthen short range air defense systems, particularly against Russian unmanned aerial vehicles. Zelensky highlighted urgent measures to protect cities such as Kherson and Nikopol, as well as border communities in the Sumy region, where Russian forces are reportedly conducting persistent drone harassment targeting civilian areas.

Expanding The Drone Threat Dimension

A second priority identified by Kyiv is scaling up defenses against Shahed type drones and other Russian strike UAVs. These systems have become central to Russia’s ability to sustain pressure at relatively low cost while stretching Ukraine’s air defense resources.

The emphasis on UAV defense reveals an important correlation in the conflict’s evolution. As Russia adapts its targeting priorities, Ukraine must reallocate defensive assets, increasing strain on already limited resources during the harsh winter period.

Signals From Moscow Suggest Escalation Pressure

On the Russian side, Vyacheslav Volodin, chairman of the State Duma, issued a warning that “new troubles” could begin for Ukraine in the coming week. His remarks came as weather forecasts predicted temperatures in Ukraine dropping below minus 20 degrees Celsius over the next seven days, a factor that heightens the humanitarian and operational impact of any disruption to logistics or infrastructure.

Volodin asserted that Russian forces are advancing and that lawmakers are pressing for the use of more powerful weapons to achieve the objectives of what Moscow terms its special military operation. While such statements are partly rhetorical, they contribute to an atmosphere of strategic signaling ahead of diplomatic engagements.

Diplomacy Under The Shadow Of Force

According to Euromaidan Press, Volodin’s comments were made shortly before a new round of talks between Ukrainian and Russian delegations scheduled to take place in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The timing suggests a pattern where military pressure and political messaging are used to shape negotiation dynamics rather than to facilitate compromise.

The shift in Russian targeting underscores the limited nature of the agreement to pause attacks on energy infrastructure. Rather than signaling a step toward de escalation, the change highlights how battlefield tactics can be adjusted to meet political constraints without altering strategic intent.

For Ukraine, the episode reinforces the reality that temporary restraints offer little protection unless accompanied by enforceable mechanisms and broader confidence building measures. For international observers, the episode illustrates how diplomatic requests, even from Washington, can influence the form but not the substance of military operations in a conflict increasingly defined by adaptation rather than resolution.

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FastBull Events

FastBull Expert Advisor Q&As | FISG regional marketing analyst Kitti Thanakitkumthon: Mastering Risk, Not Just Returns_1

2026 FastBull Gold Demo Trading Contest Global S1 is in Full Swing. In this episode, we sit down with FISG regional marketing analyst Kitti Thanakitkumthon.

With over a decade of experience advising clients across stocks, commodities, and derivatives markets, the FISG regional marketing analyst is widely recognized for combining structured market analysis with strong investment psychology—resulting in a consistently low loss rate.

In this interview with FastBull, he shares his views on trading competitions, trader sustainability, and risk control in volatile gold markets.

Key Insights:

Strategy Selection: Choose strategies aligned with dominant market structure and probability, not just precise entries or technical elegance.

Winning Tool: Emotional stability and disciplined execution under pressure are the strongest competitive advantages in both contests and real markets.

Fatal Pitfall: Misusing leverage—especially adding to losing positions—creates unrecoverable risk and leads most traders to liquidation.

Expert Advice: Stop chasing prediction or rankings; follow a predefined plan, control risk, and let statistical edge and consistency do the work.

Q1: Thank you for joining FastBull, Kitti! From your perspective, what is the greatest value of a global trading competition like FastBull GOLD?

Kitti Thanakitkumthon：From the perspective of FISG’s advisory work, the FastBull competition acts as a powerful accelerator for the global trading ecosystem. It provides a transparent environment where proprietary firms and independent traders can validate their expertise and publicly demonstrate strategic discipline. A verified performance record created under competitive conditions gives traders the statistical credibility required to pursue long-term professional opportunities.

Q2：If you were to assess whether a trader has long-term sustainability, which behavioral traits would you focus on most?

Kitti Thanakitkumthon：In our work with traders across different market cycles, one trait consistently defines long-term sustainability: emotional stability under pressure. The ability to absorb losses, reassess assumptions, and adapt to changing market regimes is essential. Whether a trader operates intraday or over longer horizons, navigating drawdowns constructively is the true gateway to longevity.

Q3：You have long provided market analysis support to clients. In a competitive trading environment, how should analysis and execution work together?

Kitti Thanakitkumthon：My role within the FISG framework is to help traders develop a structured approach to speculation and capital deployment. I don’t promise outcomes—neither in competitions nor in live markets—but I focus on strengthening psychological resilience. When traders gain control over fear and impulse, execution naturally aligns with analysis.

Q4：You are known for maintaining a relatively low drawdown. During a competition, in what ways does loss control demonstrate its importance?

Kitti Thanakitkumthon：Across both competitive and institutional environments, one risk consistently stands out: leverage misuse. Increasing exposure while positions are underwater creates an asymmetric profile that is extremely difficult to recover from. Experience gained through FISG’s risk-focused approach shows that strict adherence to predefined risk parameters is often the difference between survival and liquidation.

Q5：As an advisor, which core skill would you most like participants to improve through the competition?

Kitti Thanakitkumthon：A recurring theme in professional advisory work is traders’ tendency to focus on entry precision while overlooking probability. Even with optimal risk-reward ratios, a setup misaligned with the dominant market structure has a low expectancy. For example, counter-trend positioning in Gold during a macro bullish phase significantly reduces the odds of success, regardless of technical finesse.

Q6：If unexpected news during the competition causes sharp spikes or drops in gold prices, would you recommend chasing the volatility, or staying on the sidelines for safety?

Kitti Thanakitkumthon：One lesson emphasized repeatedly in professional trading environments like those supported by FISG is this: prediction is unnecessary. News-driven volatility creates inefficiencies—temporary mispricings driven by fear or greed. Traders who remain calm and execute predefined plans can benefit, while those reacting emotionally tend to underperform.

Q7：In a short-term competition like this, how many dollars of profit per trade do you think is sufficient to justify a decisive exit?

Kitti Thanakitkumthon：Profit targets are highly strategy-dependent. Within professional trading structures, including those commonly applied at FISG, scalping systems may function efficiently with modest risk-reward ratios, while momentum-based ‘sniper’ setups aim for asymmetric returns. In expanding Gold ranges, these conditions can justify extending reward expectations well beyond conventional limits.

Q8：For participants with relatively limited trading experience, what do you think they should focus on most during the competition?

Kitti Thanakitkumthon：Many traders possess technically sound strategies yet fail due to a misplaced focus on external comparison. In professional trading environments, the emphasis is always on execution consistency. If a system is statistically robust, ranking outcomes become a function of probability—not emotion or competition-induced pressure.

Q9：The 2026 FastBull GOLD Demo Trading Competition Global S1 the battle for the leaderboard is already underway. For traders who are currently watching from the sidelines, what practical trading lessons can they learn by observing daily changes in the rankings? And how would you encourage these observers to stop hesitating and step into the arena themselves in future FastBull seasons?

Kitti Thanakitkumthon：Observing peers from your region perform at a high level can be a powerful motivator. Within the broader FISG community, we often see that real progress begins only when traders commit capital and responsibility to their decisions. Insight is earned through participation. Growth does not happen on the sidelines.

Registration Link:

https://www.fastbull.com/trading-contest/detail/2026-FastBull-GOLD-Global-S1-11

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Gerik

Economic

A Precedent Setting Move By Brussels

The European Union is preparing to impose sanctions on Kyrgyzstan for allegedly enabling trade flows that undermine restrictions placed on Russia. If implemented, this would represent the first activation of the EU’s anti circumvention mechanism against a non member state, signaling a significant escalation in enforcement strategy.

Proposed measures include restrictions on exports of machinery and selected radio and telecommunications equipment to Kyrgyzstan. The intent is not only punitive but preventative, aiming to close logistical and financial pathways that allow sanctioned goods to reach Russia indirectly.

Tightening The Net Around Russia’s Financial And Energy Sectors

Alongside the proposed actions against Kyrgyzstan, the EU is considering further tightening sanctions on Russian banks and oil companies. Crypto related services and other financial institutions suspected of helping Moscow evade restrictions may also be targeted. The upcoming package is expected to broaden trade limitations on companies and products linked to Russia’s defense industry, while certain Russian metal imports could face new barriers.

EU officials argue that these steps reflect a deliberate effort to strengthen enforcement rather than merely expand sanction lists. The objective is to reduce leakage points that weaken the overall effectiveness of the sanctions regime.

Why Kyrgyzstan Has Drawn Scrutiny

Western officials increasingly view Kyrgyzstan as a commercial intermediary for Russia since the outbreak of the Russia Ukraine conflict in 2022. As sanctions restricted Moscow’s direct access to Western markets, Russia appears to have relied more heavily on alternative trade routes through friendly or loosely regulated partners.

Economic ties between Russia and Kyrgyzstan have deepened markedly. Bilateral trade rose from around 2 billion USD in 2021 to 3.3 billion USD in 2023, before reaching approximately 5 billion USD in 2025. This rapid growth has raised concerns that Kyrgyzstan’s economy is being used as a conduit rather than as a purely independent trading partner.

Structural Factors Enabling Trade Diversion

As a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, Kyrgyzstan benefits from relatively open access to the Russian market and limited internal border controls. After 2022, imports into Kyrgyzstan from both China and the EU surged. Imports from the EU alone jumped from 310 million USD in 2021 to nearly 3 billion USD in 2024, with a significant portion reportedly re exported onward to Russia.

Sanctions have constrained Russia’s access to machinery, electronics, vehicles, and other goods with potential military or dual use applications. The combination of increased imports into Kyrgyzstan and expanding exports to Russia has therefore drawn heightened attention from European regulators.

From Trade Corridor To Financial Hub

Some analysts suggest that Kyrgyzstan’s role extends beyond goods transit. An economist from Kyrgyzstan told Reuters that, as a consequence of sanctions, the country has effectively become a form of offshore financial center for Russian companies, allowing them to use Kyrgyzstan’s financial system to manage transactions and maintain access to international trade networks.

This assessment highlights a correlation between sanctions pressure on Russia and the rapid expansion of Kyrgyzstan’s trade and financial activity. While not definitive proof of causation in every transaction, the scale and timing of the shift have reinforced EU concerns.

Implications For Sanctions Enforcement

If the EU proceeds with sanctions against Kyrgyzstan, the move would send a clear signal that third countries facilitating circumvention face tangible consequences. It would also broaden the geographic scope of sanctions enforcement beyond Russia itself, raising the compliance stakes for states positioned along alternative trade corridors.

More broadly, the case illustrates how sanctions regimes increasingly depend not only on their formal design but on the ability to monitor and disrupt indirect channels. As Russia adapts to prolonged restrictions, the EU appears prepared to respond by extending pressure outward, transforming sanctions from a bilateral tool into a wider system of conditional economic engagement.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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John Adams

Traders' Opinions

Remarks of Officials

Economic

Central Bank

Bond

Indian government bonds sold off sharply following the federal budget, with the 10-year benchmark yield hitting its highest level in nearly a year. The market slump was driven by the government's announcement of a record-high borrowing program, which has weakened already fragile investor sentiment.

The government plans to borrow a gross 17.2 trillion rupees ($187.5 billion) in the next fiscal year, which runs from April through March. This news immediately pushed bond prices down and yields up.

Market Reacts to Massive Borrowing Target

The yield on the benchmark 6.48% 2035 bond jumped 8 basis points to 6.78% on Monday, a peak not seen since last March. This move comes as the market grapples with a lack of investor appetite and recent losses on trading portfolios.

Even before the budget announcement, the market showed signs of stress. The 10-year benchmark yield had already risen by around 20 basis points between December and January, despite a 25 basis point policy rate cut and significant debt purchases by the central bank.

Figure 1: This chart shows India's gross market borrowings, highlighting the projected surge to a record 17.2 trillion rupees in fiscal year 2026-27, the key driver behind the recent bond market sell-off.

Why Higher Bond Yields Matter for India's Economy

The 10-year government bond yield is a crucial economic indicator because it serves as a benchmark for borrowing costs across the country. When this yield rises, it creates several challenges:

• Higher Costs for Companies and States: Both corporate and state-level borrowing becomes more expensive, as their loan rates are priced relative to government bonds.

• Increased Government Debt Burden: The government itself must pay more to finance its operations, straining public finances.

• Complicates Central Bank Policy: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been cutting policy rates to support economic growth. Rising market yields work against these efforts, making monetary policy less effective.

Figure 2: The widening gap between the RBI's repo rate and the 10-year bond yield from February to November 2025 illustrates the growing tension between official monetary policy and market-driven borrowing costs.

Analyst Outlook: Caution and a Call for RBI Action

Market analysts are now expressing caution and looking to the central bank for support.

"We remain cautious on bonds, (and) despite the recent cheapening, we do not advocate long positions here and think the 10-year can push closer to 7% near term," said Nathan Sribalasundaram, Asia rates strategist at Nomura. He noted that while the RBI remains the "marginal buyer," the central bank has a low bar for announcing further bond purchases through Open Market Operations (OMOs).

Dhiraj Nim, an economist at ANZ, shared a similar view on the RBI's role. "With macro factors likely to dampen the private sector's bond demand, the RBI is expected to use open market operations to boost liquidity and manage borrowing costs simultaneously," he said.

What Traders Are Watching Next

With the market under pressure, all eyes are on the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision this Friday. While another rate change is not expected, traders and investors are anxiously awaiting any announcements about liquidity injections or new bond-buying programs designed to stabilize the market.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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UK Rate Cuts on Hold? BoE Faces Inflation Dilemma

The Bank of England in London, where the Monetary Policy Committee is set to make its latest interest rate decision.

A High-Stakes Balancing Act

Market Bets Shift as Rate Cut Hopes Fade

The Core Dilemma: Stubborn Wage Growth

A Divided Committee and an Uncertain Path Forward

China’s Manufacturing Rebound Gains Momentum as Private PMI Outpaces Official Data

Private PMI Signals Stronger Start To The Year

Production And Orders Drive Short Term Expansion

Cost Pressures Undermine Business Confidence

Geopolitical Risks And Front-Loaded Activity

Holiday Effects And Policy Intentions

Policy Support Seen As Insufficient

Source: CNBC

Index Of Commodity Prices – January 2026

Source: RBA

Russia Shifts Strike Focus in Ukraine After Trump Call for Energy Truce

A Tactical Pause Rather Than De Escalation

Ukraine Observes A Change In Russian Targeting

Reciprocity And Ukraine’s Defensive Posture

Expanding The Drone Threat Dimension

Signals From Moscow Suggest Escalation Pressure

Diplomacy Under The Shadow Of Force

FastBull Expert Advisor Q&As | FISG regional marketing analyst Kitti Thanakitkumthon: Mastering Risk, Not Just Returns

Key Insights:

Q2：If you were to assess whether a trader has long-term sustainability, which behavioral traits would you focus on most?

Q3：You have long provided market analysis support to clients. In a competitive trading environment, how should analysis and execution work together?

Q4：You are known for maintaining a relatively low drawdown. During a competition, in what ways does loss control demonstrate its importance?

Q5：As an advisor, which core skill would you most like participants to improve through the competition?

Q6：If unexpected news during the competition causes sharp spikes or drops in gold prices, would you recommend chasing the volatility, or staying on the sidelines for safety?

Q7：In a short-term competition like this, how many dollars of profit per trade do you think is sufficient to justify a decisive exit?

Q8：For participants with relatively limited trading experience, what do you think they should focus on most during the competition?

EU Prepares Sanctions on Kyrgyzstan Over Alleged Role in Circumventing Russia Restrictions

A Precedent Setting Move By Brussels

Tightening The Net Around Russia’s Financial And Energy Sectors

Why Kyrgyzstan Has Drawn Scrutiny

Structural Factors Enabling Trade Diversion

From Trade Corridor To Financial Hub

Implications For Sanctions Enforcement

India's Record Borrowing Plan Sends Bond Yields Soaring

Market Reacts to Massive Borrowing Target

Figure 1: This chart shows India's gross market borrowings, highlighting the projected surge to a record 17.2 trillion rupees in fiscal year 2026-27, the key driver behind the recent bond market sell-off.

Why Higher Bond Yields Matter for India's Economy

Figure 2: The widening gap between the RBI's repo rate and the 10-year bond yield from February to November 2025 illustrates the growing tension between official monetary policy and market-driven borrowing costs.

Analyst Outlook: Caution and a Call for RBI Action

What Traders Are Watching Next

Risk Disclosure