Trump's Threat To Invoke Insurrection Act Escalates Showdown With Democratic Cities

Source: finance.yahoo

Source: Bloomberg

When Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Donald Trump finally talked over their differences Monday, the man at the center of their months-long spat didn’t even merit a mention.A Trump social media post hailing the talk as “very good” didn’t include the name of Jair Bolsonaro, the former Brazilian president whose trial on coup attempt charges inspired the US leader to impose 50% tariffs on many Brazilian goods earlier this year.

And although Lula asked Trump to lift the trade levies and US restrictions on top Brazilian officials, neither Bolsonaro nor his September conviction came up in the 30-minute phone call, according to a person present for the conversation.If the call itself suggested a thaw in Brazil-US relations, the sudden sidelining of Bolsonaro offered an even clearer sign that momentum remains firmly behind Lula, the leftist leader who’d already seen his approval ratings rise amid his dispute with Trump.

The cheery statements, by contrast, left at least some Bolsonaro allies dismayed, according to a person close to the powerful conservative family who, like the others, requested anonymity to discuss internal matters.Brazilian officials are hesitant to declare premature victory. But Lula’s government saw Bolsonaro’s total absence from the discussion as an indication that Trump may be willing to turn the page on his ally, two other officials said, a development that would shift the focus from unresolvable political differences to economic matters on which there’s room to cut a deal.

That wouldn’t just remove the biggest obstacle to trade talks between the nations, as Trump explicitly imposed tariffs after Brazil’s top court refused to drop its trial against Bolsonaro.It would also give Lula the chance to fully unleash the sort of charm offensive leaders like Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum have used to make headway with Trump, and that has long been a key weapon in the 79-year-old Brazilian’s political arsenal.For decades, Lula has boasted a reputation as an enchanting figure capable of winning over everyone from George W. Bush to Emmanuel Macron despite sharp ideological differences or fierce policy divides.

Trump is notoriously prone to flattery, and while Lula is too proud a politician to give into the demands of any foreign leader, he’s hardly above a little puffery if he sees it as useful.On Monday’s call, Lula reminded his counterpart that Brazil runs a trade deficit with the US, part of his case that it has the commercial relationship with the US that Trump claims to want with every nation.He also cast the conversation as the chance to press reset on a 200-year allyship between the Western Hemisphere’s largest democracies, striking notes similar to those Prime Minister Keir Starmer sang about the UK-US relationship during Trump’s visit to London last month.

It was a push to build on the progress the pair of leaders made during a seconds-long encounter at the United Nations General Assembly two weeks ago, a run-in that left Trump hailing the “excellent chemistry” he’d enjoyed with Lula. They even took time to “reiterate the positive impression” each took away from it, according to a readout from Brazil’s government.It’s too early to know if Lula’s push will work. But high-level communications channels have been unclogged, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio set to spearhead ongoing negotiations with Brazil Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin and other officials in the coming weeks.

Lula and Trump, meanwhile, both pledged that they’d soon meet in person. Trump’s schedule is crowded, with expectations that he’ll host like-minded Argentina leader Javier Milei next week amid their own trade negotiations and talks over financial aid for the country’s ailing economy.But a sit-down with Lula is possible as soon as a summit of Southeast Asian nations in Malaysia later this month, and the Brazilian also signaled his willingness to travel to Washington for a meeting if necessary.

For months, Bolsonaro’s son Eduardo has lobbied the Trump administration to come to his father’s defense, seeing US political pressure as the only way for the former president to escape his legal woes and run against Lula again next year.Some inside the Bolsonaro family were already uncomfortable with the vibes coming out of the UN encounter, and saw the phone call and resulting statements as another indication that Trump is ready to move on, a person familiar with the situation said.

Their hope now, the person added, lies with Rubio, whose hawkish approach to Latin America’s leftist leaders has inspired expectations of a more ideologically-aligned stance toward Brazil. It’s a view shared by Eduardo Bolsonaro, who praised Rubio in a social media post Monday afternoon.But Lula’s administration senses that Trump, not Rubio, will ultimately drive the decision-making process, one of the Brazilian officials said.

And after months in which Eduardo appeared to be the only Brazilian with high-level access to Washington, it’s Lula who seems to have established a direct link to Trump himself: They exchanged phone numbers during the call, and Lula, one Brazilian official said, told Trump to call him anytime.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

From time to time, we will review and update some of our good market calls. We hope this provides a helpful perspective on our approach to market forecasting.

Today, let’s review and update our thoughts on the outlook for Gold:

We first turned bullish on the price of gold on April 7, 2024. We noted that it was breaking out above $2000 per ounce to new record highs (chart). We wrote that "$3,000-$3,500 per ounce would be a realistic price target for gold through 2025."

We also noted that the price of silver is also moving to the upside after breaking out of a long-term consolidation pattern (chart)

On October 21, 2024, we wrote:

"Gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation, yet it has rallied to new highs as inflation has moderated. Perhaps gold is now a hedge against US economic sanctions. After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Russia’s foreign exchange reserves held by the US and its allies were frozen. Since then, some officials and commentators have proposed seizing those assets, which amount to nearly $300 billion, and using the proceeds to defend and rebuild Ukraine. Not surprisingly, China and other countries have been increasing their allocations of gold in their countries’ international reserves."

The price of gold had risen to $2721 at the time. On January 30, 2025, we predicted that it would rise to $3,000.

On March 3, 2025, we first provided specific year-end targets for 2025 and 2026:

"Meanwhile, the price appreciation of gold has been remarkably steady since late 2023 (chart). The recent pullback has been very moderate so far. We are targeting (not promising) a gold price of $4,000 per ounce by the end of this year and $5,000 by the end of 2026."

On July 14, 2025, we noted:

"We are still bullish on gold, though we think that the current consolidation may continue through the summer. The price has continued to be contained by its ascending channel."

On September 2, 2025, we wrote:

"We reckoned that President Donald Trump’s attempts to reorder the world’s geopolitical order, including America’s relationships with its major trading partners, might be unsettling and bullish for gold. Similarly, his attempt to order the Fed to lower interest rates would compromise its independence and be bullish for gold. In addition, the bursting of China’s housing bubble has had a significant adverse wealth effect on Chinese savers, who’ve flocked to gold as an alternative safe asset. Furthermore, the rising standard of living in India has increased wealth, thereby boosting demand for gold, which is widely regarded as a valuable asset."

We added:

"Our bullishness is supported by the ’Gold Put,’ provided by central banks that are increasing the percentage of their international reserves in gold (chart).

We also noted:

"Over the past couple of trading days, the volume in the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE:GLD) has increased significantly (chart)."

So far, so good (chart). The price of gold is within shouting distance of our $4000 target for 2025. We are now aiming for $5,000 in 2026. If it continues on its current path, it could reach $10,000 by the end of the decade.

The price of silver has also soared and should continue to rise along with the price of gold, though both may be due for a pullback or at least a short period of consolidation (chart).

Source: Investing

Hamas said on Tuesday it wants to reach a deal to end the war in Gaza based on U.S. President Trump's plan but still has a set of demands, a statement signalling that indirect talks with Israel in Egypt could be difficult and lengthy.

Senior Hamas official Fawzi Barhoum set out Hamas's position on the second anniversary of the Palestinian militant group's attack on Israel that triggered the Gaza war, and one day after the indirect negotiations began in Sharm el-Sheikh.

The talks appear the most promising yet for ending a war that has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and devastated Gaza since the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, in which 1,200 people were killed and 251 were taken back to Gaza as hostages.

But officials on all sides urged caution over the prospects for a rapid agreement, as Israelis remembered the bloodiest single day for Jews since the Holocaust and Gazans voiced hope for an end to the suffering brought by two years of war.

HAMAS SETS OUT CONDITIONS

"The (Hamas) movement’s delegation participating in the current negotiations in Egypt is working to overcome all obstacles to reaching an agreement that meets the aspirations of our people in Gaza," Barhoum said in a televised statement.

He said a deal must ensure an end to the war and a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip - conditions that Israel has never accepted. Israel, for its part wants Hamas to disarm, something the group rejects.

Hamas wants a permanent, comprehensive ceasefire, a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the immediate start of a comprehensive reconstruction process under the supervision of a Palestinian "national technocratic body", he said.

Underlining the obstacles lying ahead at talks, an umbrella of Palestinian factions including Hamas issued a statement vowing "resistance stance by all means" and saying "no one has the right to cede the weapons of the Palestinian people."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not immediately comment on the status of the talks in Sharm el-Sheikh.

U.S. officials have suggested they want to initially focus talks on a halt to the fighting and the logistics of how the hostages and political prisoners would be released. But Qatar, one of the mediators, said many details had to be worked out, indicating there was unlikely to be an imminent agreement.

In the absence of a ceasefire, Israel has pressed on with its offensive in Gaza, increasing its international isolation and prompting pro-Palestinian protests abroad which were set to continue on Tuesday.

HOPES OF A BREAKTHROUGH BY CIVILIANS ON BOTH SIDES

On the anniversary of the 2023 attack, some Israelis visited the places that were hit hardest that day.

Orit Baron stood at the site of the Nova music festival in southern Israel beside a photo of her daughter Yuval who was killed with her fiance Moshe Shuva. They were among 364 people were shot, bludgeoned or burned to death there.

"They were supposed to get married on February 14th, Valentine’s Day. And both of the families decided because actually they were found (dead) together and they brought them to us together (that) the funeral will be together," said Baron.

"They are buried next to each other because they were never separated."

Israelis are hoping the talks in Sharm el-Sheikh will soon lead to the release of all the 48 hostages still held in Gaza, 20 of whom are believed to still be alive.

"It's like an open wound, the hostages, I can't believe it's been two years and they are still not home," said Hilda Weisthal, 43.

In Gaza, 49-year-old Palestinian Mohammed Dib hoped for the end of a conflict that has caused a humanitarian crisis, displaced many Palestinians multiple times and killed more than 67,000 Palestinians, according to .

"It's been two years that we are living in fear, horror, displacement and destruction," he said.

NO CEASEFIRE AFTER TWO YEARS OF WAR

In the latest violence, residents of Khan Younis in southern Gaza and Gaza City in the north reported new attacks by Israeli tanks, planes and boats in the early hours on Tuesday.

The Israeli military said militants in Gaza fired rockets into Israel, setting off air raid sirens at Israeli kibbutz Netiv Haasara, and that Israeli troops continued to tackle gunmen inside the enclave.

Israel and Hamas have endorsed the overall principles behind Trump's plan, under which fighting would cease, hostages go free and aid pour into Gaza. It also has backing from Arab and Western states.

But an official involved in ceasefire planning and a Palestinian source said Trump's 72-hour deadline for the hostages' return may be unachievable for dead hostages as their remains may need to be located and recovered.

Even if a deal is clinched, questions will linger over who will rule Gaza and rebuild it. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have ruled out any role for Hamas.

Another key issue is who will provide the billions of dollars need to rebuild an enclave that has mostly been turned into rubble.

Reporting by Nidal al-Mughrabi in Cairo and Maayan Luubell in Jerusalem and Reuters television in Sharm el-Sheikh and Charlotte Van Campenhout in Amseterdam; Writing by Michael Georgy, Editing by Timothy Heritage

Source: Reuters

The World Trade Organization is sharply raising its forecast for trade growth in goods this year after an unexpectedly strong first half due to rising AI-related purchases, front-loaded imports in the U.S. over tariff fears and robust developing-world trade.

The Geneva-based trade body said Tuesday its economists are increasing their prediction of growth in merchandise trade to 2.4% this year, up from 0.9% as recently as August. In April, WTO experts were actually anticipating a decline of goods trade this year of 0.2%

However, they're lowering the prediction for 2026 to 0.5%, from 1.8%.

The growth of export in services, meanwhile, is expected to come in at 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% next year — both slower rates than the 6.8% tallied in 2024.

WTO pointed to “robust trade in artificial intelligence-related goods" that are driving the increase in merchandise trade, notably semiconductors, servers and telecommunications equipment.

Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala suggested solid trade growth among developing countries and a cool-headed reaction to sweeping — and often-varying — tariffs announced by the Trump administration earlier this year had underpinned the gains.

“Countries’ measured response to tariff changes in general, the growth potential of AI, as well as increased trade among the rest of the world — particularly among emerging economies — helped ease trade setbacks in 2025,” she said.

Despite “strong headwinds," Okonjo-Iweala said trade has shown resilience because of “importers front-loading orders to get ahead of future tariff hikes or retaliation.” U.S. inventories are at record levels by dollar value, and the value of North America’s imports surged 13.2% at an annual rate, driven by pharmaceuticals and precious metals — mostly gold.

She also attributed the gains to “soaring demand” for AI-related products behind a capital investment boom. A staggering 42% of global trade growth came from AI-related goods, she said, much higher than their 15% share in world trade.

South-South trade — among developing countries — grew 8% year-on-year in value terms in the first half of the year, while such trade involving partners other than China is growing at around 9%, WTO said.

Source: Yahoo Finance