Trump’s Strategic Balancing Act: Taiwan Tensions Underscore US Diplomatic Tightrope with China and Japan

Economic

Summary:

President Donald Trump’s sequential calls with Xi Jinping and Sanae Takaichi underscore his bid to stabilize trade ties while navigating escalating Taiwan-related tensions.....

Tensions Escalate as Trump Reengages Asian Powers

In a tightly choreographed diplomatic sequence, President Donald Trump held phone calls with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on the same day. This rare back-to-back communication effort comes as the US faces mounting pressure to navigate intensifying regional tensions over Taiwan, while simultaneously finalizing sensitive trade agreements with China.

The conversation with Xi marked the first direct engagement since a trade truce was agreed upon in South Korea. Although Taiwan had been deliberately excluded from their previous discussions, it emerged as a central point of contention during the latest exchange. Xi invoked post–World War II narratives to frame Taiwan’s reintegration into China as a matter of historical and moral continuity. This framing was aimed at reinforcing the legitimacy of Beijing’s claims, presenting the Taiwan issue as inseparable from the global wartime legacy shared with the US.

Strategic Messaging and Domestic Optics

President Trump, in contrast, publicly downplayed the Taiwan issue in his post-call statement, instead highlighting discussions on agricultural exports and illegal fentanyl shipments. By doing so, he appears to be maintaining strategic ambiguity: offering economic concessions and engagement with China while avoiding a firm public stance that might alienate allies or Congress.

Nonetheless, Trump acknowledged the significance of Taiwan to China during the conversation, a statement reported in the Chinese government’s readout but not reflected in the White House’s messaging. This asymmetry signals the US administration’s cautious maneuvering aiming to advance negotiations without escalating friction over sovereignty and security matters.

Japan’s Role in the Regional Equation

Shortly after the Xi call, Trump contacted Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, reaffirming the US-Japan alliance and updating her on the China discussions. Takaichi’s recent remarks about Japan’s possible military involvement in a Taiwan conflict have provoked Beijing, which has since intensified diplomatic pressure by issuing travel advisories, suspending cultural exchanges, and banning seafood imports from Japan.

This chain of events underscores a direct correlation between Japan’s public security posture and China’s retaliatory economic and political responses. It also reflects a growing triangulation where Washington must manage not just its own bilateral relations, but also the frictions between its allies and strategic competitors.

Rare Earths and Trade as Leverage Points

A central theme underpinning Trump’s diplomacy is the ongoing rare earths negotiation. China and the US are seeking to finalize agreements on critical mineral exports essential to high-tech manufacturing. The economic stakes are considerable, as these materials fuel sectors ranging from semiconductors to electric vehicles.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent previously indicated optimism that a rare earths framework could be reached by Thanksgiving. This goal reflects a causal relationship between diplomatic de-escalation and commercial progress: smoothing geopolitical tensions directly facilitates breakthroughs in economically strategic sectors.

However, any renewed flare-up over Taiwan threatens to derail these delicate arrangements. Beijing has made it clear that US ambiguity on Taiwan independence is no longer acceptable and has urged Washington to shift from a neutral “non-support” stance to a firm “opposition.” This shift, if agreed to, would have wide-ranging implications not only for US credibility in the Indo-Pacific but also for Taiwan’s security environment.

Risks of Strategic Overreach

While the administration attempts to preserve economic momentum, critics argue that the underlying dynamics reveal structural weaknesses. Beijing expects the US to control or moderate its allies’ Taiwan-related moves, viewing these states as falling under Washington’s strategic umbrella. However, such assumptions place Washington in a precarious position, as it risks alienating allies if it appears too conciliatory toward Beijing.

This tension between alliance maintenance and strategic competition is particularly evident in the Taiwan context. If the US is perceived as compromising Taiwan’s status for trade gains, it may erode trust among regional allies, while failing to secure meaningful concessions from Beijing in return.

Trump’s twin outreach to Xi and Takaichi reveals a calculated diplomatic balancing act designed to advance US economic interests while containing geopolitical risks. Yet the evolving Taiwan issue remains a flashpoint that could disrupt even the most carefully managed truce. The outcome of these engagements will likely hinge not only on trade negotiations and rare earths exports, but also on how deftly the US can continue to walk the tightrope between reassurance and resistance in a region defined by historical memory, economic interdependence, and fragile peace.

Source: Bloomberg

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Samantha Luan

Forex

Economic

The yen looks set to appreciate nearly 10% against the dollar in the coming months if the Federal Reserve delivers back-to-back rate cuts amid growing signs of a US economic slowdown, Morgan Stanley strategists said.

The dollar-yen is detached from fair value now, and if that relationship returns, the cross is seen declining in the first quarter of 2026 as falling US yields may drive down the fair value, strategists including Matthew Hornbach wrote in a note dated Sunday.

"Japanese fiscal policy settings meanwhile are not especially expansionary," they said, and expect renewed downward pressure on the yen in the second half of next year as the US economy recovers, reviving demand for carry trades.

The bullish yen call comes despite the currency's recent weakness, driven by concerns that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's spending plans will worsen Japan's fiscal health and by fading expectations of a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike. The yen has slumped 5.6% against the dollar this quarter, making it the worst performer among Group-of-10 currencies.

Morgan Stanley forecasts the dollar-yen pair to fall to around 140 in the first quarter of 2026, before rebounding to about 147 by year-end. The yen traded at 156.67 to the dollar at 11:51 a.m. Tokyo time.

With the yen hovering near the 157-per-dollar level, investors are increasingly weighing the risk of an official intervention in the market. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and other officials have recently expressed concerns over the currency's weakness, with Katayama specifically mentioning intervention as an option — though her comments so far have had only limited market impact.

Japan's growth minister Minoru Kiuchi said earlier Tuesday that the government is watching currency movements, including speculative activity, with a high sense of urgency.

On the rates side, Morgan Stanley expects Japan's sovereign yield curve to bull-steepen in the first quarter of 2026, driven by the US slowdown and easing fiscal concerns at home. The bank maintains recommendations for outright longs in 10-year Japanese government bonds, a yield curve steepener on 10- and 30-year JGBs, and a short position in 30-year JGB asset-swap spreads in the near term.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Samantha Luan

Political

Economic

Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said she spoke with US President Donald Trump at his request, and that he briefed her on his phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping and the latest state of US-China relations.

The two leaders reaffirmed the importance of close cooperation between the US and Japan, Takaichi said on Tuesday following her call with Trump, as a spat between Japan and China continues over her comments on Taiwan earlier this month. Takaichi was responding to a question from a reporter asking whether they discussed Taiwan.

"We've been able to further confirm the close relationship between the US and Japan following President Trump's recent Japan visit," Takaichi told reporters. "He told me I'm a very close friend and that I could call him any time."

The flurry of calls came as Japan and China continue to spar over Takaichi's comments on Nov. 7 where she said that if China fought to take control of Taiwan, it could be considered a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan, raising the theoretical possibility that Japan could deploy its military with other nations. So far the economic impact has been relatively limited, but China has advised its citizens to avoid traveling to Japan, and for students already there to exercise caution.

In a letter to the United Nations this week, Japan criticized an earlier missive from China as mis-representing the nature of remarks Takaichi made on Taiwan, saying Beijing's letter was "inconsistent with the facts and unsubstantiated."

"China's assertion that Japan would exercise the right of self-defense even in the absence of an armed attack is erroneous," Japanese Ambassador to the UN Kazuyuki Yamazaki wrote in a letter to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres dated Nov. 24.

Trump and Xi held their first talks on Monday since agreeing to a tariff truce last month, where they discussed trade, Taiwan and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The US president said he agreed to visit Beijing in April, and that he had invited Xi for a state visit next year. Takaichi also said Tuesday that she gave her thoughts on the US's efforts on achieving peace in Ukraine.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Justin

Forex

Economic

India's economy likely grew 7.3% in the July–September quarter, according to a Reuters poll of economists, underpinned by strong rural and government expenditure even as private capital spending remained subdued.

Household consumption, which accounts for roughly 60% of the economy, strengthened in the previous quarter as rural spending improved on better agricultural output. Urban demand and private investment continued to lag, suggesting uneven growth in Asia's third-largest economy.

Government spending, a key driver of growth in recent years, also likely persisted in Q2 of this fiscal year.

India remains one of the world's fastest-growing major economies in the face of U.S. President Donald Trump raising tariffs on Indian goods to 50% in August, a move that has contributed to foreign investors pulling out a net $16 billion from Indian equities so far this year.

Most economists say the deflator, used to strip out the effect of inflation to show "real" economic growth, was likely very low, making Asia's third-largest economy seem a bit stronger than it really is.

Indian gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 7.3% year-on-year in the July–September period, down from a better-than-expected 7.8% in the previous quarter, according to the median forecast from a Reuters poll of 61 economists conducted November 18–24. Estimates ranged from 6.0% to 8.5%.

"As far as the drivers of growth are concerned, private consumption and central government capex expenditure will remain the key supports for growth now, while private sector capex investment will likely grow at a slower pace due to the persisting global uncertainty," Kaushik Das, India chief economist at Deutsche Bank, said.

The data are due Friday, November 28 at 1030 GMT.

Economists are more cautious on the medium-term outlook, predicting GDP growth to slow to 6.8% this quarter and 6.3% in the quarter ending in March 2026.

STATISTICAL BOOST

A low deflator - which falls when inflation cools - also provided a boost to the latest data, as it did in the previous quarter, several economists said.

"GDP will benefit from a lower base and an exceptionally low deflator, which will artificially prop up real GDP growth ... But nominal GDP growth will likely continue to be weak," Deutsche Bank's Das said.

Wholesale price inflation was negligible and consumer inflation was on average around 2% between July–September.

Inflation has since fallen to less than half a percent.

"Inflation projections now for the rest of the year also remain soft," Rajni Thakur, chief economist at L&T Finance, said. "We really don't see this deflator support - which is statistically impacting real GDP numbers - going away till the end of this fiscal year."

Economic activity as measured by gross value added (GVA) was estimated to have expanded 7.15%. Nominal GDP growth, which is not adjusted for price changes, likely slowed to 8.3% last quarter from 8.8% previously, the poll predicted. Those are based on a smaller sample of forecasters.

Meanwhile, recent cuts to the consumption tax, part of a major overhaul of the national goods and services tax (GST) system and implemented from September 22, are expected to give some support to demand in the coming quarters.

"Unfortunately, GST cuts have come at a time when Indian households are already heavily indebted. That takes away part of the disposable income they could otherwise have saved from the tax reductions," said Dhiraj Nim, economist at ANZ.

Source: Investing

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Gerik

Economic

Musk’s Involvement at the Center of Constitutional Dispute

Elon Musk, former senior adviser to President Trump and CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, is now at the center of a heated constitutional battle. A group of current and former USAID employees has filed a lawsuit accusing Musk of unlawfully exercising power reserved for Senate-confirmed officials by directing the controversial dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) under the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative. The plaintiffs argue that Musk’s actions violated the U.S. Constitution’s separation of powers by intervening in an agency created by Congress.

This case raises questions about the causal connection between Musk’s advisory role and the structural collapse of USAID. Plaintiffs cite social media posts where Musk appeared to take credit for the agency’s shutdown, including a February post stating, “We spent the weekend feeding USAID into the wood chipper.” This explicit claim of involvement challenges the government’s stance that Musk merely offered non-binding advice and held no formal authority.

Justice Department Pushes Back on Deposition Demands

In response to efforts to depose Musk and two former USAID officials, Peter Marocco and Jeremy Lewin, the Department of Justice filed a motion seeking to block those depositions. The government contends that plaintiffs must first exhaust all less intrusive methods of evidence gathering, including written requests or alternative witnesses. Citing precedent on executive privilege, DOJ argues that forcing high-level executive officials to testify would intrude upon White House operations and potentially compromise the president’s constitutional functions.

This legal reasoning hinges on a causal limitation inherent in the executive branch’s structure: compelling deposition could weaken the separation of powers by subjecting confidential internal decision-making to judicial oversight. The DOJ thus positions Musk’s deposition as both unnecessary and constitutionally risky, even while acknowledging he acted as a visible figurehead of the DOGE initiative.

Federal Court Already Greenlighted the Case

The legal stakes escalated in August when a Maryland federal judge allowed the lawsuit to proceed, rejecting an earlier attempt by the government to dismiss the case entirely. The ruling acknowledged sufficient evidence of Musk's potentially unconstitutional overreach to justify further discovery. Since then, plaintiffs and their legal team, led by the Democracy Defenders Fund, have been aggressively pursuing testimony and documentation to support their case.

Notably, this litigation follows a broader pattern of legal resistance from the Trump administration. Earlier this year, the U.S. Supreme Court intervened to block testimony from DOGE Administrator Amy Gleason in a separate public records dispute, suggesting a broader strategy to shield DOGE-related activities from judicial scrutiny.

Broader Implications for Executive Authority and Outsider Influence

This case taps into deeper debates about the boundaries of executive power and the risks of allowing non-elected, unconfirmed individuals especially private-sector figures to wield influence over government policy. Musk’s prominent role in government downsizing, while unofficial, reflects a blurred line between advisory input and administrative action.

As the case of Does v. Musk proceeds, the U.S. legal system faces a pivotal test of how far executive privilege extends and whether individuals like Musk, who serve in unofficial but impactful capacities, can be held accountable for constitutional breaches. The upcoming deadlines and motions in Maryland will help clarify not only the facts surrounding USAID’s controversial closure but also the legal thresholds for compelling testimony from those who move between the private and public spheres with exceptional influence.

Source: Bloomberg

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FastBull Featured

Daily News

[Quick Facts]

1. Fed Governor Waller advocates a rate cut next month, then decides meeting by meeting.

2. U.S. Q3 GDP preliminary estimate canceled, September PCE data rescheduled.

3. U.S. and Ukraine seek to narrow differences on Peace Talks; Trump hints at progress in negotiations.

4. Japan's New Economic Stimulus Plan seems "comprehensive", but its actual fiscal strength is weaker than in previous rounds.

5. RBA may resume rate hikes in 2026; slower potential growth is a key factor.

6. Trump launches "Genesis" mission to integrate Federal resources and accelerate AI research breakthroughs.

7. Daly: Labor market faces risk of non-linear deterioration, supports December rate cut.

8. Fed Chair selection enters a crucial stage; Waller becomes the leading candidate.

[News Details]

Fed Governor Waller advocates a rate cut next month, then decides meeting by meeting

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said in a speech ON Monday that, with regard to our dual mandate, his main concern is the labor market. "January will be tricky with a flood of data coming to indicate whether another cut is appropriate, need a meeting by meeting approach." He explained. If inflation or employment suddenly rebounds, or if the economy takes off, that would raise concerns. He still believes the labor market will not improve over the next six to eight weeks.

Futures markets show investors currently assign about a 70% probability to a Fed rate cut in December. Following cuts in September and October, Fed officials appear seriously divided on whether another cut is appropriate.

U.S. Q3 GDP preliminary estimate canceled, September PCE data rescheduled

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) under the U.S. Department of Commerce, the preliminary estimate of Q3 2024 GDP (covering July–September), originally scheduled for release on October 30th, has been canceled due to the impact of the government shutdown on data publication schedules.

The BEA said the second estimate for the quarter, originally planned for this past Wednesday, is likely to be delayed. The bureau typically releases three successive quarterly GDP estimates, which constitute the most comprehensive official measure of the scale of economic activity.

The September PCE and personal income report will now be released on December 5th at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time, instead of the original October 31st date.

U.S. and Ukraine seek to narrow differences on Peace Talks; Trump hints at progress in negotiations

U.S. and Ukrainian officials are attempting to narrow differences over plans to end the war in Ukraine, after agreeing to revise an American proposal that Kyiv and its European allies regarded as reflecting the Kremlin’s wish list. In a joint statement, Washington and Kyiv said they drafted a revised peace framework following Sunday’s Geneva talks. While no details were disclosed, the dialogue received a cautious welcome from some Ukrainian allies.

The U.S.–Ukraine Geneva talks aimed at ending the Russia–Ukraine war have concluded, with officials from both sides stating that progress was made and expressing willingness to continue efforts. However, no specifics have been released on how to bridge Moscow and Kyiv's vast gaps on territorial issues and Ukraine's security guarantees.

President Zelenskyy welcomed the significant progress achieved. However, he warned that the main obstacle in peace talks is Russian President Putin's demand for Ukraine to recognize the eastern territories occupied by Moscow, which would violate principles of territorial integrity and sovereignty. He also stressed that Russia may be rewarded for land seized by force.

No Russian representatives attended the Geneva talks. The Kremlin said it has received no information on the outcome; spokesman Peskov noted that Moscow is aware the plan has been adjusted and that Putin welcomes this.

Japan's New Economic Stimulus Plan seems "comprehensive", but its actual fiscal strength is weaker than in previous rounds

Moody's Analytics economist Stefan Angrick pointed out that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's first major policy package seems a comprehensive fiscal stimulus, but the actual details reveal a more cautious approach compared with the previous two rounds.

Although the total package amounts to JP¥42.8 trillion (approximately 6.7% of GDP), the figure includes guarantees, loans, and estimates of private-sector spending. Excluding these items, core spending and tax cuts total just JP¥21.3 trillion.

Angrick emphasized that the key measure of fiscal stimulus strength is not the absolute amount but its proportion relative to the size of the economy. On that basis, the Takaichi plan accounts for only 3.3% of GDP, slightly lower than the 3.4% and 3.5% shares of the 2023 and 2024 packages, respectively. This relative contraction occurs against the backdrop of Japan's general government deficit falling from 10% of GDP to nearly zero, reflecting the new government's balance between fiscal expansion and real constraints.

RBA may resume rate hikes in 2026; slower potential growth is a key factor

Commonwealth Bank of Australia Chief Economist Luke Yeaman said in a research note Tuesday that if price pressures remain elevated and the labor market tightens further, the RBA could turn to rate hikes in 2026.

Yeaman, a former deputy secretary of the Treasury, analyzed that Australia's economy will continue operating near full capacity, meaning the board must remain vigilant and rate cuts will not be on the agenda in the short term. He specifically warned that if economic momentum exceeds expectations, a rate hike scenario could arise in 2026.

Yeaman noted that although the likelihood of restarting hikes remains low, weak productivity has dragged down Australia's potential growth rate. This structural change implies that when activity recovers, inflation could pick up more rapidly, requiring borrowing costs to remain higher than in past cycles. As one of the few economists who believe the RBA easing cycle has ended, Yeaman provides a policy outlook diverging from mainstream expectations, highlighting Australia's structural challenges.

Trump launches "Genesis" mission to integrate Federal resources and accelerate AI research breakthroughs

U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday formally launching the “Genesis Mission” artificial intelligence development initiative, aimed at accelerating scientific research by extensively integrating federal research resources. The plan requires government research agencies, such as the Department of Energy, to fully deploy AI technologies. Michael Krastios, science adviser to the president, told reporters on a conference call that the Genesis mission is "the largest marshaling of federal scientific resources since the Apollo program."

Under the order, agencies must optimize datasets for compatibility with neural networks and other AI tools, while opening government‑held research data and federal computing infrastructure to university researchers, private enterprises, and national security sectors. Energy Secretary Wright said AI will be used to deeply analyze the massive datasets held by DOE's 17 national laboratories, pledging this will significantly speed up scientific discovery and innovation. The White House expects breakthroughs in pharmaceutical R&D, energy production, and engineering.

Daly: Labor market faces risk of non-linear deterioration, supports December rate cut

During a speech on Monday, San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly said she supports cutting rates at the December meeting due to rising risks of a sudden labor-market deterioration. The Fed lacks confidence that it can stay ahead of the labor market curve. She warns the job market is "vulnerable" and could have a nonlinear downturn, which she sees as harder to manage than an inflation flare-up. Tariff-related inflation pressures have been more muted than expected, reducing the risk of an inflation breakout.

She still believes the Fed can return inflation to 2% without higher unemployment—and that failing to do so would be a policy failure. Although she does not have a vote this year, Daly rarely took a public stance differing from Chair Powell and is expected to play a key role in resolving internal policy divisions at the December FOMC meeting.

Fed Chair selection enters a crucial stage; Waller becomes the leading candidate

Incumbent Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May next year. The Trump administration has narrowed the successor list to five individuals, including Waller, White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Kevin Hassett, and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh. Waller revealed he met with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ten days ago for in-depth discussions on matters related to the Fed chair position, describing the meeting as smooth. He also expressed confidence that he meets the government's requirements for the abilities and experience needed for the job, suggesting the next round of interviews for Fed chair is underway.

[Today's Focus]

UTC+8 16:00 ECB Governing Council Member Villeroy speaks

UTC+8 17:00 ECB Governing Council Member & Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland Makhlouf speaks

UTC+8 22:00 ECB Executive Board Member Cipollone speaks

UTC+8 21:30 U.S. September retail sales MoM

UTC+8 21:30 U.S. September PPI

UTC+8 22:00 U.S. September FHFA house price index MoM

UTC+8 23:00 U.S. October existing home sales index MoM

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Justin

Forex

Stocks

High-frequency trading firms have posted strong profit growth in India despite regulatory curbs, showcasing their agility in tapping opportunities across the country's $5.4 trillion equity market.

Hudson River Trading LLC led the charge with a 156% surge in profit for the fiscal year that ended on March 31, according to filings. Optiver Holding BV and homegrown firms AlphaGrep Securities Pvt and Graviton Research Capital LLP also reported robust growth for the year.

The performance highlights India's growing appeal for market makers even as the Securities and Exchange Board of India tightens rules to temper retail speculation in derivatives. At the same time, regulators have taken steps to strengthen cash markets, expand ETFs, and deepen commodity derivatives.

The fiscal year for these firms ended about five months after SEBI started imposing curbs on derivatives trading by limiting the number of weekly contracts to one index per exchange, charging upfront for options premiums, and increasing the contract size. The regulator also imposed a temporary ban on Jane Street Group in July, accusing it of manipulative transactions involving options and shares — allegations that the firm has denied.

Jane Street and Citadel Securities LLC have yet to report their figures.

Even with the curbs, futures and options trading "has been the largest segment for HFT firms given the large volumes," said Sanchit Suneja, chief strategy officer at India's Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. He added that algorithmic trading accounts for more than 50% of the total trading volume in the equity derivatives segment by value on the National Stock Exchange.

Hudson River reported a profit of about 22 billion rupees ($246 million), while its revenue from operations jumped 155% to 31.4 billion rupees, according to a filing to the Ministry of Corporate Affairs.

Graviton, a significant player in cash equities, reported a 17% rise in profit to nearly 12 billion rupees. AlphaGrep saw its profit jump 77% to 4.74 billion rupees. Dutch firm Optiver reported a $44 million profit in its first full year in India, reversing losses in the first six months. The figures may not solely reflect income generated within India for the firms.

Algorithmic traders are also profiting from market making on exchange traded funds, and cash-to-futures arbitrage, Suneja said. Proprietary traders accounted for about 50% of the options turnover in the latest fiscal year, about 30% of cash equity trading and roughly 35% of futures, he said.

Meanwhile, HFT firms are also adapting and looking into multi-frequency strategies. Companies are also diversifying into other segments, while smaller retail investors are moving away from derivatives.

"There is a churn in users," Ishan Bansal, the chief financial officer of digital broker Groww, said on an earnings call on Friday.

The firm said a 10% to 20% growth in average order value per user in the derivatives segment over the last few quarters, Bansal added. That's because smaller participants are moving away from the futures and options segment, he said.