Trump’s Pledge To Lift Syrian Sanctions Faces Long, Complex Road

Political

Summary:

US President Donald Trump says he’s ready to ease sanctions on Syria. He won’t be able to do it quickly.

The American leader sat down with Syrian counterpart Ahmed Al-Sharaa in Riyadh on Wednesday — the first meeting between heads of the two countries in 25 years — after unexpectedly saying he would drop all sanctions against the war-ravaged country and even look to normalize relations.

The move was seen as a highlight of Trump’s trip to the Arabian Peninsula this week, but actual implementation will be a protracted and thorny challenge. The White House also made clear it’s not a one-way street, saying the president urged Sharaa to take steps in return, including helping to fight terrorism and agreeing ties with Israel.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will have to wade through layers of strict restrictions imposed on Syria over the past 45 years — covering everything from finance to energy — and met his counterpart Asaad Al-Shaibani on Thursday in Turkey.

“President Trump has made clear his cessation of sanctions is meant to help stabilize and move Syria toward peace,” National Security Council spokesman James Hewitt said in a statement. “The State Department prepared for this moment by engaging across the U.S. government and our foreign partners since the fall of the Assad regime to review options and timing on sanctions relief.”

Trump can lift sanctions issued by executive order but some will need a vote in Congress to be repealed, according to Caroline Rose, a Syria expert and research director at the Washington-based New Lines Institute.

“The road ahead with sanctions relief will be long and complicated,” she said. “There are still many sceptics to Syria normalization and sanctions relief, particularly among Republican Party members.”

Another issue is that Sharaa, Shaibani and many other members of the present Syrian government are former commanders of an Al-Qaeda-affiliated group implicated by the United Nations Security Council in war atrocities. Sharaa, who previously ran an Islamist protostate in northwest Syria, overthrew long-time former President Bashar Al-Assad in December after a rebel offensive.

“There’s a lot that needs to be done, including by the Syrian administration,” Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan told reporters Wednesday. “Syria won’t be alone — the kingdom and the rest of our international partners will be at the forefront of those supporting this effort and economic rebirth.”

One immediate boost for Sharaa’s government will come from supporter Qatar, which has US backing to begin dispersing almost $30 million a month for civil servant salaries, according to two people involved in finalizing the arrangement and two others with knowledge of the matter.

That will provide at least a start for the new Syrian administration, which is faced with an economy devastated by more than a decade of war and in need of as much as $400 billion for rebuilding costs, according to the Carnegie Endowment for International peace.

“We welcome all investors: children of the nation inside and outside, our Arab and Turkish brothers and friends from around the world,” Sharaa said in a speech on Wednesday night.

Supporters of Sharaa inside and out of Syria, including Saudi Arabia, see Trump’s move as a brave decision that isolates extremists within the Syrian leader’s Islamist-dominated administration. The move also excludes Iran, Assad’s main patron, and helps ensure China doesn’t make significant inroads.

Investment opportunities will instead fall to regional powers friendly to the US, like Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.

“The main concern in the business community has been that we don’t want to be seen working with what has been designated as a terrorist government by the West,” said Majd Abbar, a Dubai-based Syrian-American information-technology executive, who has lobbied officials in Washington to lift sanctions and met with Sharaa multiple times.

“Now that these sanctions will be lifted, everyone is going to jump on board to invest in Syria,” he said. “It’s practically a white canvas — there’s nothing there.”

Syria, which is technically still at war with Israel, has been under myriad US sanctions since its 1979 designation by Washington as a state sponsor of terrorism.

Relations thawed in the 1990s when Damascus joined the US-led coalition that ousted Saddam Hussein from Kuwait and engaged in peace talks with Israel. But after replacing his father in 2000, Assad deepened ties with Iran and was accused by the US of supporting the insurgency in Iraq following the 2003 US-led invasion.

That triggered additional sanctions by Washington, and further rounds followed from 2011 when Assad mounted a brutal crackdown against his opponents, spawning a decade-long conflict that killed almost 500,000 people and displaced millions more. Just before his toppling in December, the US renewed the 2019 Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, which penalizes anyone that does business with the Syrian government except for exempted humanitarian reasons.

Before Trump’s announcement, many in his administration, such as Sebastian Gorka, were strongly opposed to removing sanctions or dealing with Sharaa, seeing him as a committed jihadist who is masking his real intentions. The State Department had demanded Sharaa’s government show progress on a number of critical issues as a precondition for the lifting of sanctions.

At their meeting in Riyadh, Trump urged Sharaa to take certain steps, according to a White House readout of the conversation, which was attended by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Those include the deportation of Palestinian militants and other foreign fighters from Syria, helping with the effort to prevent the resurgence of Islamic State and normalizing relations with Israel.

Israel was quick to intervene militarily after Assad’s ouster, launching a series of airstrikes on arms-storage sites and extending its occupied land in Syria’s southwest. It also stepped in to defend the Druze community after violent clashes between the minority group and government forces.

The country’s attitude toward Syria “is more sceptical, we are approaching matters in a slower manner,” Danny Danon, Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, told Army Radio on Thursday. “We want to see that there really is stability in Syria, that this regime doesn’t only talk, it also takes action.”

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Adam

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

Wall Street dipped on Thursday as elation from the U.S.-China tariff truce faded for major indexes, while UnitedHealth's stock took a pummeling after a report of a DOJ fraud inquiry into the insurer.

UnitedHealth Group plunged 16% to its lowest level since April 2020.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. Department of Justice was conducting a criminal investigation into the company for possible Medicare fraud. However, the health insurer said it had not been informed of a criminal probe by federal prosecutors.

Walmart will have to start raising prices later this month due to the high cost of tariffs, executives said, even as the retail giant's U.S. comparable sales surpassed expectations in the first quarter. Its shares were down 4.8%

At 09:42 a.m., the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 128.62 points, or 0.31%, to 41,922.44, the S&P 500 lost 19.46 points, or 0.33%, to 5,873.03, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 123.27 points, or 0.64%, to 19,023.53.

Speaking on the day, U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said central bank officials felt they needed to reconsider the key elements around jobs as well as inflation in their current monetary policy approach.

U.S.

retail sales

growth slowed in April, while a Labor Department report showed the producer price index for final demand fell 0.5% for the same month, compared to an expectation of a 0.2% rise.

On an annual basis, producer prices came in at 2.4% versus an estimate of 2.5%.

"There will be a hump and pick up in prices, but until we see how big that is and how lasting that is, the Fed should be able to remain patient," said Jan Nevruzi, U.S. rates strategist at TD Securities.

The data dump follows a relatively tame consumer price reading earlier this week, indicating that consumer prices rebounded moderately last month.

In results-driven moves, Cisco Systems gained 2.9% after the networking-equipment maker raised its annual forecasts and named Mark Patterson its new CFO.

Only four out of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were trading in the green.

The energy sector fell the most, as oil prices slid around 3% on expectations of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal that could result in sanctions easing.

Stocks have been see-sawing this week as equities jumped on Monday and Tuesday following a temporary ceasefire in the U.S.-China tariff war. The gains were enough to drag the S&P out of the red for the year - its first positive showing since late February - although it is still about 4% shy of its record highs.

Many megacap and growth stocks pulled back, with Nvidia slipping 1.2%, while Tesla shed 2.8%.

Foot Locker, soared 83.6% after rival Dick's Sporting Goods agreed to buy the footwear retailer for $2.4 billion.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.01-to-1 ratio on the NYSE, while declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.28-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 posted four new 52-week highs and three new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 17 new highs and 51 new lows.

Source: marketscreener

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin’s price is retracing, but strong ETF inflows, high network activity and whale accumulation suggest BTC is on track to $140,000.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $2.9 billion in net inflows in two weeks, mirroring past rallies.

Declining exchange balances and a rising transaction volume Z-score suggest increasing overall demand.

Bitcoin price was down 1.4% over the last 24 hours. It traded 6% below its all-time high of $109,000, reached on Jan. 20. Nevertheless, several fundamental, onchain and technical metrics suggest that Bitcoin’s upside is not over.

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows mirror past BTC rallies

Bitcoin’s latest recovery was accompanied by strong investor appetite for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which recorded $2.9 billion in net inflows over the last two weeks.

The chart below shows that after the launch of the US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, these investment products saw net inflows of about $8.5 billion between Feb. 13, 2024, and March 13, 2024, peaking at a record single-day inflow of $1.045 billion on March 12, 2024. 6 Signs Predicting $140K as Bitcoin's Next Price Top_1

6 Signs Predicting $140K as Bitcoin's Next Price Top_1

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows. Source: Glassnode

Similarly, between Nov. 6, 2024, and Dec. 16, 2024, cumulative daily inflows hit $5.7 billion, aligning with Bitcoin’s 60% rally from $67,000 to $108,000 over the same period.

If ETF inflows continue, Bitcoin is likely to resume its uptrend toward new all-time highs.

Bitcoin market volatility index: risk-on

Increased inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs signal high risk-on sentiment, as evidenced by a drop in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures 30-day market volatility expectations.

Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson highlighted that the VIX index has dropped substantially to 18 from 55 over the past 25 trading days.

A VIX score below 18 implied a “risk-on” environment, favoring assets like Bitcoin.

The analyst said:“This will be a 'risk on' environment for the foreseeable future.”

CBOE Volatility Index. Source: Timothy Peterson

Peterson’s model, which has a 95% tracking accuracy, predicted a $135,000 target within the next 100 days if the VIX remains low.

Strong Bitcoin accumulation continues

Reinforcing the risk-on sentiment are Bitcoin whales, who have been increasing their holdings even as the price rallied. Glassnode data shows the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score (ATS) at 1 (see chart below), which signifies intense accumulation by large investors

According to Glassnode, the spike in trend score indicates a transition from distribution to accumulation across almost all cohorts. This shift mirrors a similar accumulation pattern observed in October 2024, which preceded Bitcoin’s rise from $67,000 to $108,000, spurred by US President Donald Trump’s election victory. 6 Signs Predicting $140K as Bitcoin's Next Price Top_3

6 Signs Predicting $140K as Bitcoin's Next Price Top_3

Bitcoin accumulation trend score. Source: Glassnode

Additional data from Santiment reveals that addresses holding between 10 BTC and 10,000 BTC have accumulated 83,105 more BTC in the past 30 days.

In a May 13 post on the X social platform, Santiment said,

“With the aggressive accumulation from these large wallets, it may be a matter of time until Bitcoin's coveted $110K all-time high level is breached, particularly after the U.S. and China tariff pause.”

Bitcoin 10-10,000 BTC chart holdings. Source: Santiment

Overall, this is a positive sign as continued accumulation signals bullish sentiment among this cohort of investors.

Declining Bitcoin balance on exchanges

BTC balance on exchanges reached a six-year low of 2.44 million BTC on May 15. According to the chart below, more than 110,000 BTC have been moved off exchanges over the last 30 days.

6 Signs Predicting $140K as Bitcoin's Next Price Top_5

BTC reserve on exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant

Decreasing BTC balances on exchanges means investors could be withdrawing their tokens into self-custody wallets, indicating a lack of intention to sell in anticipation of a future price increase.

Increasing network activity

Bitcoin’s potential to rise is supported by increased network activity, as highlighted by crypto investor Ted Boydston in a May 15 post on X.

The Bitcoin transaction volume Z-score measures the difference between the current transaction volume and the average. It is often used to gauge network activity and market interest.

The chart below shows the metric has risen sharply from the negative zone and is approaching 1. A rising transaction volume Z-score, especially when it approaches or exceeds 1, is historically associated with Bitcoin price rallies.

“This is a good sign for Bitcoin price acceleration,” remarked Boydston, adding:“Bitcoin should be full bull once the Z-score breaches 1.”

Source: Ted Boydston

BTC rounded bottom pattern targets $140K

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price has formed a rounded bottom chart pattern on the daily chart (see below). Bulls are now focused on pushing the price above the neckline of the governing chart pattern at $106,660.

A daily candlestick close above this level would confirm a bullish breakout from the rounded bottom formation, ushering BTC into price discovery with the technical target set at $140,000, or a 37% increase from the current level.

6 Signs Predicting $140K as Bitcoin's Next Price Top_7

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

The relative strength index, or RSI, is at 70, and a bullish cross from the SMAs suggests that the market conditions still favor the upside, which can top out at even higher than $140,000.

As Cointelegraph reported, BTC price had broken out of a bull flag in the weekly timeframe, projecting a rally to $150,000.

Source: Cointelegraph

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Adam

Commodity

Oil fell for a second day after President Donald Trump said the US and Iran are getting closer to a deal regarding Tehran’s nuclear program, a move that could unleash more supplies onto a market that is rapidly approaching a glut.

Brent was trading around $64 a barrel after losing as much as 4% in London. US crude futures also slid.

If all sanctions on Iran are lifted, about 300,000 to 400,000 barrels a day of additional crude could hit global markets, analysts estimated. The development adds further gloom to a market that is already swimming in additional supplies after OPEC+ revived output at a faster pace than anticipated and trade talks between the US and major consuming nations cloud the demand outlook.

“I think we’re getting close to maybe doing a deal,” Trump told reporters in Doha. But prices found some support because Trump’s latest rhetoric was more optimistic than that of Iran. Its lead negotiator, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, on Wednesday urged the US to come to the next round of Oman-mediated talks with a “more realistic” approach. The date and location for those is yet to be decided.

“In less than 24 hours, the narrative has shifted from the US imposing new sanctions on Iran to growing speculation that a diplomatic breakthrough may be within reach,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management.

“If a deal is concluded, it would increase the likelihood of a significant oversupply later this year, especially when combined with the planned production increases from OPEC+,” he said.

Brent has averaged about $63 a barrel so far this month, the lowest price since 2021. The pullback will help soothe inflationary pressures in consuming economies but hits the coffers of major producers.

US shale companies have already reined in capital spending plans, and Saudi Arabia has lifted borrowing levels as the low prices show signs of biting.

Adding to the negative sentiment, the International Energy Agency said it expects global consumption growth to slow for the rest of this year as trade uncertainty puts pressure on demand.

“We’re seeing clear signs that the global economy is slowing and oil demand growth is slowing,” Toril Bosoni, head of the IEA’s oil markets division, said in a Bloomberg Television interview with Francine Lacqua.

Oil touched a four-year low during the depths of the trade tumult before mounting its biggest four-day gain since October after a détente was announced this week.

Prices remain down by about 13% this year thanks to the twin hit of trade uncertainties and faster-than-expected output increases by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies.

Source: Bloomberg

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Adam

Economic

U.S. manufacturing production fell more than expected in April amid a sharp decline in motor vehicle output, and the sector could struggle to regain its footing in the second quarter because of tariffs.

Factory output dropped 0.4% last month after an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in March, the Federal Reserve said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast production would slip 0.2% after a previously reported 0.3% rise.

Production at factories increased 1.2% on a year-over-year basis in April. President Donald Trump's shifting tariffs policy poses a significant headwind to manufacturing, which accounts for 10.2% of the economy and relies heavily on imported raw materials.

While the Trump administration slashed duties on Chinese imports last weekend to 30% from 145%, a 10% tariff on nearly all imports remained in place as did a 25% tax on steel and aluminum as well as motor vehicles and parts.

Trump has defended the tariffs as necessary to revive a long-declining U.S. industrial base, but economists say it is impossible to bring factories that moved overseas back to the country, citing high production and labor costs as among the challenges.

Manufacturing grew at a 4.8% rate in the first quarter after a prolonged slump due to higher interest rates.

Motor vehicle and parts output plunged 1.9% last month after increasing in the prior two months likely as automakers tried to stay ahead of tariffs. Motor vehicle manufacturers have warned tariffs would significantly cut into profits this year.

Durable manufacturing production fell 0.2%. Nondurable manufacturing production decreased 0.6%, with most industries posting declines.

Mining output slipped 0.3% after posting strong gains in the previous two months. Utilities production rebounded 3.3%. That followed two straight monthly declines.

Overall industrial production was unchanged after easing 0.3% in March. It increased 1.5% on a year-over-year basis in April.

Capacity utilization for the industrial sector, a measure of how fully firms are using their resources, dipped to 77.7% from 77.8% in March. It is 1.9 percentage points below its 1972–2024 average. The operating rate for the manufacturing sector dropped four-tenths of a percentage point to 76.8%. It is 1.4 percentage points below its long-run average.

Source :finance.yahoo

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James Whitman

Forex

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD technicals

The AUDUSD continues to face strong resistance at the 200-day moving average, which capped rallies both on Monday and again today at the session high of 0.6457. Sellers leaned into that level, keeping upside momentum in check and maintaining the bearish pressure.

On the downside, a cluster of moving averages, all broken on the move lower, sits between 0.6419 and 0.6437 and now acts as a key resistance zone. This area includes:

● The 200-hour MA at 0.64376

● The 100-hour MA at 0.64254

● The 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.6419

After the fall, the low price reached 0.6401, just above the psychological 0.6400 level, where support buyers emerged. However, the rebound stalled at 0.6422, unable to reclaim the broken MAs—giving sellers a short-term advantage below this cluster.

To shift the bias back to the upside, the pair needs to sustain a move above 0.6437, and then break through the 200-day MA at 0.6457. That would open the door toward 0.6513, the high for the year.

Conversely, a break below 0.6400 could see further downside toward the next support at 0.6388, followed by the broader swing area between 0.6321 and 0.63437. Beyond that, key support targets include:

● The 100-day MA at 0.62951

● The 38.2% retracement of the April rally at 0.62844

Source: ForexLive

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Damon

Economic

Stocks

U.S. stocks fell Thursday, handing back some of the week’s hefty gains, as investors digest corporate earnings as well as weak economic data, raising slowdown fears.

At 09:35 ET (13:35 GMT), the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 180 points, or 0.4%, the S&P 500 index dropped 15 points, or 0.3% and the NASDAQ Composite slipped 85 points, or 0.5%.

Despite today’s losses, the main averages are still on course for healthy gains this week as the trade deal between China and the U.S. eased fears of a prolonged tariffs war, potentially hitting economic growth.

PPI inflation, retail sales slump

With the trade turmoil seemingly settling down, investors are turning their attention to the economic data slate, looking for signs of damage being done to the world’s largest economy.

The latest producer price index showed that factory gate prices slumped on a monthly basis in April, in the latest sign of cooling inflationary pressures.

The producer price index for final demand fell 0.5% in April, the first monthly fall since 2023, after the previous month’s figure was revised to flat from a fall of 0.4%.

Taking out more volatile items like fuel and food, so-called “core” PPI also fell on a monthly basis, down 0.4%.

Data released earlier this week showed that the more widely-watched consumer price index grew by 2.3% in the 12 months to April, compared with expectations that it would match March’s pace of 2.4%.

It was the lowest annual rate of inflation since February 2021, shortly before pent-up pandemic-fueled demand and supply constraints led to soaring prices.

Additionally, retail sales fell 1.0% on the month in March, a more substantial loss than the 0.5% expected.

A surge of buying before the implementation of Trump’s punishing tariffs led to the largest increase in the metric in more than two years in March. Separate surveys have indicated that households have widely been anticipating that the levies will push up prices.

Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver remarks at a conference in Washington, D.C. Last week, the Fed left interest rates unchanged, with Powell noting strength in the broader economy but rising risks from inflation and unemployment.

Walmart impresses in Q1

The main corporate release Thursday comes from retail giant Walmart (NYSE:WMT), with the retail giant posting better-than-anticipated first-quarter earnings, although its finance chief warned that tariff tensions could soon drive prices higher..

Known for its low prices and massive selections, Walmart has become something of a bellwether for shopper sentiment. In February, the company issued downbeat guidance for the year, although CFO John David Rainey said American consumers remain "resilient" and focused on value.

Elsewhere, Chinese e-commerce titan Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) missed earnings expectations for its fiscal fourth quarter on both the top and bottom line, while agricultural equipment manufacturer Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) reported better-than-expected second quarter results, but lowered the bottom end of its full-year net income forecast range amid challenging market conditions.

Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) raised its annual results forecast, betting on steady demand from cloud customers for its networking equipment, driven by the artificial intelligence boom.

UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH) stock slumped after the Wall Street Journal reported the company was being investigated by the Department of Justice over alleged criminal fraud involving Medicare.

The investigation marks a new headwind for UnitedHealth, which is already nursing a sharp selldown in its shares this year on concerns over government scrutiny, weakening financials, and signs of internal strife. The company abruptly replaced its CEO this week.

Foot Locker (NYSE:FL) stock soared after Dick’s Sporting Goods (F:DKS) confirmed it is exploring a deal to buy the company for roughly $2.3 billion.

Crude slumped on Iran nuclear deal talk

Oil prices fell sharply Thursday, extending recent losses, as the growing expectations for a potential U.S.-Iran nuclear deal added to demand concerns following a surprise build in U.S. inventories.

At 09:35 ET, Brent futures dropped 2.5% to $64.45 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 2.4% to $61.56 a barrel.

Both benchmarks lost just under 1% on Wednesday, ending a four-day rally and slipping from the two-week high reached earlier this week.

A U.S.-Iran nuclear deal could potentially allow Tehran to export more of its crude into the world market, loosening the global crude supply-demand balance.

Additionally, data from the Energy Information Administration showed crude stockpiles rose by 3.5 million barrels in the week ended May 9, suggesting that demand may be cooling in the world’s largest energy consumer.