Trump vs. Big Banks: The Fight Over Credit Card Rates

Source: Reuters

Geopolitical tensions between Washington and Copenhagen are set to continue after a high-stakes White House meeting on Wednesday failed to soften President Donald Trump's ambition to acquire Greenland. Despite cordial discussions, the U.S. position remains unchanged, while Denmark and Greenland continue to firmly reject any transfer of sovereignty.

A meeting between Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, Greenlandic Foreign Minister Vivian Motzfeldt, U.S. Vice President JD Vance, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio concluded without a breakthrough. While the parties agreed to form a working group to address U.S. concerns about the Arctic territory, the core dispute over ownership remains firmly deadlocked.

White House Talks Fail to Break Deadlock

Speaking to reporters after the two-hour meeting, Rasmussen confirmed that American officials had not altered their stance. "We didn't manage to change the American position," he stated, adding, "It's clear that the president has this wish of conquering over Greenland."

Both Rasmussen and Motzfeldt described the U.S. demand as an unacceptable breach of sovereignty. Though they called the meeting respectful and acknowledged shared U.S. concerns over Arctic security, they were unified in rejecting the idea of the island becoming American territory.

Figure 1: Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen and Greenlandic Foreign Minister Vivian Motzfeldt met with U.S. officials in Washington, where discussions failed to resolve the diplomatic stalemate.

The meeting was seen by analysts as a critical opportunity to de-escalate the crisis. Noa Redington, a former political adviser, told Reuters it was "the most important meeting in modern Greenland's history," noting concerns that the Danish and Greenlandic ministers might face a public humiliation similar to that of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in a 2025 White House meeting.

Trump Doubles Down on Security Claims

President Trump has framed the acquisition of the mineral-rich and strategically located island as a matter of national security. He argues that U.S. control is essential to prevent rivals like Russia or China from establishing a foothold in the Arctic.

Before Wednesday's meeting, Trump took to social media to reiterate his position, claiming NATO would become more formidable with Greenland under U.S. control. "Anything less than that is unacceptable," he wrote. In a post referencing Russia and China, he added: "NATO: Tell Denmark to get them out of here, NOW! Two dogsleds won't do it! Only the USA can!!!"

Denmark and Greenland Stand Firm: 'Not For Sale'

In response to U.S. pressure, Denmark and Greenland have consistently maintained that the island is not for sale and that threats of force are reckless among allies.

In a proactive move, the two governments announced they have begun to increase their military presence in the Arctic in cooperation with NATO. According to the Danish defence ministry, this will involve a series of military exercises throughout 2026 aimed at bolstering regional defense.

Figure 2: Merchandise reflecting local sentiment in Greenland underscores the public opposition to U.S. acquisition efforts.

Greenland Prioritizes Unity With Denmark

The diplomatic crisis appears to be reshaping political discourse within Greenland. Local leaders are now publicly emphasizing unity with Denmark over their long-term goal of independence.

"It's not the time to gamble with our right to self-determination, when another country is talking about taking us over," Greenlandic Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen told the newspaper Sermitsiaq. "Here and now we are part of the kingdom, and we stand with the kingdom."

Foreign Minister Motzfeldt echoed this sentiment in a statement, saying, "We choose the Greenland we know today – as part of the Kingdom of Denmark."

European Allies and US Public Opinion Weigh In

European leaders have rallied behind Denmark. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that Greenlanders could "count on us," while French President Emmanuel Macron warned of "unprecedented" consequences if the sovereignty of an ally were affected. France is scheduled to open a consulate in Greenland's capital, Nuuk, on February 6.

Meanwhile, a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests that Trump's ambition lacks broad support at home. The poll, which concluded Tuesday, found that only 17% of Americans approve of the effort to acquire Greenland, while 47% disapprove. Substantial majorities of both Democrats and Republicans opposed using military force for annexation.

The European Union has officially approved a landmark trade agreement with Mercosur, the South American economic bloc. This deal establishes one of the world's largest free-trade zones, encompassing a population of over 700 million people. Culminating after 25 years of intermittent negotiations, the timing of the agreement highlights its profound geopolitical significance far beyond simple commerce.

Set to be signed in Paraguay on January 17, the pact emerges as a direct response to a changing global landscape. As Washington adopts a more aggressive stance under its "Donroe Doctrine" and China expands its economic reach, this deal signals a strategic alignment between Europe and South America. Both regions are actively seeking greater economic autonomy and partnership in an era defined by US protectionism and great-power competition.

A 25-Year Journey to Agreement

Negotiations between the EU and Mercosur first began in 1999 but faced numerous setbacks. Talks stalled during the 2000s and early 2010s due to political shifts in South America. Momentum returned with the election of more market-oriented leaders in Argentina and Brazil, leading to an agreement in principle in 2019. However, ratification was once again blocked, this time by protectionist interests within Europe.

The deal appeared dead during the term of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, whose policies drew sharp criticism across Europe. In 2023, the EU introduced stricter environmental provisions to address concerns that the pact could accelerate deforestation in the Amazon. This nearly derailed the talks, as Mercosur leaders viewed the move as European overreach before a compromise was eventually reached.

Meanwhile, China’s economic presence in South America grew dramatically. The EU’s share of Brazilian exports fell from 28% in 2000 to just 16% by 2019. During the same period, China became Brazil's top trading partner, now purchasing around 30% of its exports. This shifting dynamic created a new sense of urgency for Europe to secure its position in the region.

Geopolitical Drivers Behind the Deal

Several factors converged to finally push the agreement over the line. US President Donald Trump's trade wars and neo-imperialist rhetoric spurred Europe and South America to reduce their dependence on an unpredictable United States. Washington's turn towards nationalism transformed the concept of "strategic autonomy" from a political buzzword into an economic necessity.

Without a deal, Europe risked becoming increasingly marginalized in South America. For Mercosur nations, a lack of deep ties with Europe limited their options amid the escalating rivalry between Washington and Beijing.

• Europe's Strategy: The EU diversified its trade partnerships, accelerating talks not only with Mercosur but also with other key economies like Japan.

• Mercosur's Hedge: The South American bloc came to see an EU pact as a crucial hedge against being caught between the competing pressures of the US and China. This was especially true after Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva returned to the Brazilian presidency in 2023.

A majority of EU governments now back the deal. Even a previously skeptical Italy came on board after securing safeguards for its agricultural market, providing the necessary support for approval in the European Council. Only France and Poland remain vocally opposed.

A New Pillar for South American Strategy

For Mercosur members—Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay—the EU agreement is less about immediate export gains and more about securing geopolitical leverage. Exports from both blocs to Asia are significantly higher, and Mercosur accounts for only about 2% of the EU's total exports.

The true value lies in creating a third strategic pillar to balance relations with the United States and China. This allows South American governments to avoid a binary choice between American pressure and Chinese influence.

The agreement also strengthens the Mercosur bloc itself. In recent years, South American integration had stagnated, with members pursuing different ideological paths and unilateral trade deals, such as Uruguay's talks with China. By locking the bloc into a formal pact with the EU, the deal restores a sense of shared purpose and cohesion while reinforcing Brazil's credentials as a regional leader.

Europe's Access to Critical Resources

For the European Union, the agreement is a strategic move to secure access to rare earths and other critical minerals. Brazil alone holds over 20% of the world's reserves of these materials, which are essential for advanced manufacturing, clean energy technology, and military hardware. Argentina and Bolivia also possess significant lithium reserves.

As global powers work to reduce their supply chain dependence on China, formalizing access to South American resources has become a key strategic and commercial objective for Europe.

Countering the Deglobalization Narrative

The EU-Mercosur pact serves as a powerful symbolic rebuttal to the idea that globalization is in irreversible decline. In recent years, waves of populism and protectionism, from Brexit to Trump's tariffs, fueled fears of global economic decoupling.

This agreement offers a counterpoint, demonstrating that cooperation between the global north and south remains possible. It proves that even in a fractured world, nations can still choose partnership over confrontation.

Final Hurdles Remain

Despite the fanfare, the deal is not yet finalized. It still requires ratification in the European Parliament and the national parliaments of Mercosur member states. Powerful agricultural lobbies, particularly in France, remain fiercely opposed due to fears of competition from South American beef and other farm products.

While further protests from French farmers are expected, it seems increasingly unlikely that they can derail the deal's final approval. If fully implemented, the EU-Mercosur agreement will be the largest trade deal either bloc has ever signed, marking a significant diplomatic achievement born from the pressures of global instability.

The U.S. economy is experiencing modest growth and stable hiring, according to the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book report. The findings suggest policymakers are unlikely to shift their current interest rate stance ahead of their meeting in two weeks.

The report, a snapshot of economic conditions across the Fed's 12 regional districts, painted a picture of mild optimism. Most districts expect "slight to modest growth" in the coming months. This assessment marks a modest upgrade from the previous report.

Key Economic Indicators

The Beige Book, which gathers insights from business contacts nationwide, provides a qualitative look at the economy's health. The latest edition highlighted several key trends:

• Economic Activity: Eight of the twelve Fed banks reported an increase in economic activity.

• Employment: Hiring was largely unchanged in eight districts.

• Inflation: Prices grew at a "moderate rate" across most of the country, with two districts reporting only "slight" price growth.

Fed Policy and Market Outlook

These findings align with the Federal Reserve's recent signals. After cutting interest rates three times last year to support the labor market, policymakers indicated in December that they would pause to assess inflation. The current policy rate stands in a range of 3.50% to 3.75%.

Financial markets widely anticipate that the central bank will keep rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting on January 27-28.

Recent government data presents a complex backdrop for the Fed. The unemployment rate has edged down to 4.4%, while consumer prices in December rose 2.7% from the previous year. This inflation reading remains above the Fed's official 2% target.

Internal Divisions and Future Rate Path

While the central bank has signaled a pause, futures markets suggest policymakers may wait until June to consider another rate cut. This timeline extends beyond the end of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's current term. President Donald Trump has expressed his desire for a new Fed chief who favors significantly lower borrowing costs.

The Fed's own policymakers remain divided on the best course of action. The decision to cut rates in December passed with a 9-3 vote. The majority cited the need to support a weakening labor market, while the dissenters viewed inflation as the more pressing risk. Several non-voting Fed bank presidents have since indicated they also supported holding rates steady.

The Trump administration is facing sharp criticism after formally approving the sale of Nvidia's powerful H200 artificial intelligence chips to China. The decision, which establishes new rules for the exports, has alarmed lawmakers and former officials who argue it compromises America's technological edge and could empower Beijing's military.

This move reverses the direction of the previous Biden administration, which had barred sales of high-end semiconductors to China over national security fears. Now, despite deep concerns among China hawks in Washington, a pathway for shipping the H200 chips has been cleared.

Critics Warn of Bolstering China's Military AI

The policy shift has been met with immediate backlash. Matt Pottinger, who served as a senior White House Asia advisor during Trump's first term, testified at a congressional hearing that the administration is on the "wrong track" with its AI strategy.

He warned that selling H200s to China "will supercharge Beijing's military modernization," improving its capabilities in areas from nuclear weapons and cyber warfare to autonomous drones and intelligence operations. "Congress needs to put guardrails in place so that this mistake can't be repeated," Pottinger added.

Other Republican lawmakers shared these concerns. Michael McCaul stated, "You cannot sell military-grade AI technology to China." He emphasized that while intellectual property theft is already a problem, the U.S. shouldn't be actively selling advanced technology to a rival.

The Administration's Rationale: Stifling Local Rivals

The Trump administration, guided by White House AI czar David Sacks, defends the policy as a strategic move. The official argument is that supplying China with advanced U.S. chips discourages Chinese companies, like the heavily sanctioned Huawei, from accelerating their own efforts to match top-tier chip designs from Nvidia and AMD.

However, Pottinger dismissed this line of reasoning as a "fantasy."

A Closer Look at the New Export Guardrails

The new regulations come with several conditions intended to mitigate security risks. Before any chips can be exported to China, they must adhere to the following rules:

• Third-Party Vetting: The chips must be reviewed by a testing lab to confirm their technical AI capabilities.

• Supply Cap: China cannot receive more than 50% of the total volume of chips sold to American customers.

• Domestic Priority: Nvidia must certify that there is a sufficient supply of H200s in the U.S. before shipping any to China.

• End-User Checks: Chinese customers are required to demonstrate "sufficient security procedures" and are prohibited from using the chips for military purposes.

These guardrails have received a mixed reception. Republican Congressman Brian Mast, who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee, praised the "know your customer" provisions as "significant."

In contrast, Jon Finer, a former deputy U.S. national security advisor under President Joe Biden, expressed skepticism. He pointed out that the rules would create a substantial new workload for the Commerce Department and would depend on Chinese buyers being truthful about their own clients.

Bipartisan Pushback Intensifies

Criticism of the policy has come from both sides of the aisle. Democratic Congressman Gabe Amo offered a particularly sharp critique, saying, "It's truly like Trump is handing our opponents our coordinates in the middle of a battle." He questioned the logic of abandoning a clear technological advantage.

The White House, the U.S. Commerce Department, Nvidia, and the Chinese embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the matter.

The United Arab Emirates has officially joined Pax Silica, a U.S.-led initiative designed to secure critical supply chains for artificial intelligence and semiconductors, signaling a major reinforcement of economic ties with the United States.

This program is a core element of the Trump administration's economic strategy, which aims to reduce dependency on rival nations while fostering deeper cooperation among allied partners.

The Pax Silica Framework

The UAE joins an exclusive group of nations participating in the initiative. Other members include:

• Australia

• Britain

• Israel

• Japan

• Qatar

• Singapore

• South Korea

U.S. Undersecretary of State for Economic Affairs, Jacob Helberg, explained the program's comprehensive focus to Reuters. "Ultimately we want to focus on the arteries of the supply chain, primarily logistics, the muscle of the supply chain, via industrial capacity, and the fuel of the supply chain, primarily capital and energy," he said.

UAE's Strategic Importance

Helberg emphasized the UAE's unique position within this framework. "We view the UAE as a comprehensive partner that can make meaningful and important contributions in all three of those areas," he added.

Acting on behalf of President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Helberg formally invited the UAE to a ministerial-level meeting on critical minerals in Washington next month. He noted that the summit would feature a "large group" of countries.

This partnership aligns perfectly with the UAE's national ambitions. The country has been investing billions to establish itself as a global AI hub and is actively leveraging its strong relationship with Washington to gain access to premier U.S. technology, including the world's most advanced chips. This collaboration is further evidenced by a multibillion-dollar deal to construct one of the world's largest data center hubs in Abu Dhabi using U.S. technology.

Navigating Geopolitical Complexities

When questioned about potential friction from President Trump's threat to impose a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran—a group that includes the UAE—Helberg expressed confidence. He stated he was "very confident in the strength and depth of America's relationship with the UAE."

Interestingly, while Qatar is part of Pax Silica, regional powerhouse Saudi Arabia is not, despite its own ambitions to become an AI leader. Helberg confirmed that he held initial discussions with Riyadh on Tuesday, but also noted that the U.S. and Saudi Arabia have already negotiated a "very substantial bilateral AI deal" separate from the Pax Silica initiative.