• Trade
  • Markets
  • Copy
  • Contests
  • News
  • 24/7
  • Calendar
  • Q&A
  • Chats
Trending
Screeners
SYMBOL
LAST
BID
ASK
HIGH
LOW
NET CHG.
%CHG.
SPREAD
SPX
S&P 500 Index
6844.00
6844.00
6844.00
6861.30
6844.00
+16.59
+ 0.24%
--
DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
48580.98
48580.98
48580.98
48679.14
48557.21
+122.94
+ 0.25%
--
IXIC
NASDAQ Composite Index
23241.70
23241.70
23241.70
23345.56
23241.57
+46.54
+ 0.20%
--
USDX
US Dollar Index
97.830
97.910
97.830
98.070
97.810
-0.120
-0.12%
--
EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar
1.17558
1.17565
1.17558
1.17596
1.17262
+0.00164
+ 0.14%
--
GBPUSD
Pound Sterling / US Dollar
1.33959
1.33966
1.33959
1.33970
1.33546
+0.00252
+ 0.19%
--
XAUUSD
Gold / US Dollar
4331.72
4332.13
4331.72
4350.16
4294.68
+32.33
+ 0.75%
--
WTI
Light Sweet Crude Oil
56.859
56.889
56.859
57.601
56.789
-0.374
-0.65%
--

Community Accounts

Signal Accounts
--
Profit Accounts
--
Loss Accounts
--
View More

Become a signal provider

Sell trading signals to earn additional income

View More

Guide to Copy Trading

Get started with ease and confidence

View More

Signal Accounts for Members

All Signal Accounts

Best Return
  • Best Return
  • Best P/L
  • Best MDD
Past 1W
  • Past 1W
  • Past 1M
  • Past 1Y

All Contests

  • All
  • Trump Updates
  • Recommend
  • Stocks
  • Cryptocurrencies
  • Central Banks
  • Featured News
Top News Only
Share

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index Fell 0.9% In Early Trading

Share

The S&P 500 Opened 32.78 Points Higher, Or 0.48%, At 6860.19; The Dow Jones Industrial Average Opened 136.31 Points Higher, Or 0.28%, At 48594.36; And The Nasdaq Composite Opened 134.87 Points Higher, Or 0.58%, At 23330.04

Share

Miran: Goods Inflation Could Be Settling In At A Higher Level Than Was Normal Before The Pandemic, But That Will Be More Than Offset By Housing Disinflation

Share

Miran, Who Dissented In Favor Of A Larger Cut At Last Fed Meeting, Repeats Keeping Policy Too Tight Will Lead To Job Losses

Share

Miran: Does Not Think Higher Goods Inflation Is Mostly From Tariffs, But Acknowledges Does Not Have A Full Explanation For It

Share

Toronto Stock Index .GSPTSE Rises 67.16 Points, Or 0.21 Percent, To 31594.55 At Open

Share

Miran: Excluding Housing And Non-Market Based Items, Core Pce Inflation May Be Below 2.3%, “Within Noise” Of The Fed's 2% Target

Share

Polish State Assets Minister Balczun Says Jsw Needs Over USD 830 Million Financing To Keep Liquidity For A Year

Share

Miran: Prices Are “Once Again Stable” And Monetary Policy Should Reflect That

Share

Fed's Miran: Current Excess Inflation Is Not Reflective Of Underlying Supply And Demand In The Economy

Share

Portugal Treasury Puts 2026 Net Financing Needs At 13 Billion Euros, Up From 10.8 Billion In 2025

Share

Portugal Treasury Expects 2026 Net Financing Needs At 29.4 Billion Euros, Up From 25.8 Billion In 2025

Share

Bank Of America Says With Indonesia's Smelter Now Ramping Up, It Expects Aluminium Supply Growth To Accelerate To 2.6% Year On Year In 2026

Share

Bank Of America Expects A Deficit In Aluminium Next Year And Sees Prices Pushing Above $3000/T

Share

Fed Data - USA Effective Federal Funds Rate At 3.64 Percent On 12 December On $102 Billion In Trades Versus 3.64 Percent On $99 Billion On 11 December

Share

Brazil's Petrobras Says No Impact Seen On Oil, Petroleum Products Output As Workers Start Planned Strike

Share

Statement: US Travel Group Warns New Proposed Trump Administration Requirements For Foreign Tourists To Provide Social Media Histories Could Mean Millions Of People Opting Not To Visit

Share

Blackrock: Kerry White Will Become Head Of Citi Investment Management At Citi Wealth

Share

Blackrock: Rob Jasminski, Head Of Citi Investment Management, Has Joined With Team

Share

Blackrock: Effective Dec 15, Citi Investment Management Employees Will Join Blackrock

TIME
ACT
FCST
PREV
Japan Tankan Small Manufacturing Outlook Index (Q4)

A:--

F: --

P: --

Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook Index (Q4)

A:--

F: --

P: --

Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Index (Q4)

A:--

F: --

P: --

Japan Tankan Small Manufacturing Diffusion Index (Q4)

A:--

F: --

P: --

Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Diffusion Index (Q4)

A:--

F: --

P: --

Japan Tankan Large-Enterprise Capital Expenditure YoY (Q4)

A:--

F: --

P: --

U.K. Rightmove House Price Index YoY (Dec)

A:--

F: --

P: --

China, Mainland Industrial Output YoY (YTD) (Nov)

A:--

F: --

P: --

China, Mainland Urban Area Unemployment Rate (Nov)

A:--

F: --

P: --

Saudi Arabia CPI YoY (Nov)

A:--

F: --

P: --

Euro Zone Industrial Output YoY (Oct)

A:--

F: --

P: --

Euro Zone Industrial Output MoM (Oct)

A:--

F: --

P: --

Canada Existing Home Sales MoM (Nov)

A:--

F: --

P: --

Canada National Economic Confidence Index

A:--

F: --

P: --

Canada New Housing Starts (Nov)

A:--

F: --

P: --
U.S. NY Fed Manufacturing Employment Index (Dec)

A:--

F: --

P: --

U.S. NY Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec)

A:--

F: --

P: --

Canada Core CPI YoY (Nov)

A:--

F: --

P: --

Canada Manufacturing Unfilled Orders MoM (Oct)

A:--

F: --

P: --

U.S. NY Fed Manufacturing Prices Received Index (Dec)

A:--

F: --

P: --

U.S. NY Fed Manufacturing New Orders Index (Dec)

A:--

F: --

P: --

Canada Manufacturing New Orders MoM (Oct)

A:--

F: --

P: --

Canada Core CPI MoM (Nov)

A:--

F: --

P: --

Canada Trimmed CPI YoY (SA) (Nov)

A:--

F: --

P: --

Canada Manufacturing Inventory MoM (Oct)

A:--

F: --

P: --

Canada CPI YoY (Nov)

A:--

F: --

P: --

Canada CPI MoM (Nov)

A:--

F: --

P: --

Canada CPI YoY (SA) (Nov)

A:--

F: --

P: --

Canada Core CPI MoM (SA) (Nov)

A:--

F: --

P: --

Canada CPI MoM (SA) (Nov)

A:--

F: --

P: --

Federal Reserve Board Governor Milan delivered a speech
U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index (Dec)

--

F: --

P: --

Australia Composite PMI Prelim (Dec)

--

F: --

P: --

Australia Services PMI Prelim (Dec)

--

F: --

P: --

Australia Manufacturing PMI Prelim (Dec)

--

F: --

P: --

Japan Manufacturing PMI Prelim (SA) (Dec)

--

F: --

P: --

U.K. 3-Month ILO Employment Change (Oct)

--

F: --

P: --

U.K. Unemployment Claimant Count (Nov)

--

F: --

P: --

U.K. Unemployment Rate (Nov)

--

F: --

P: --

U.K. 3-Month ILO Unemployment Rate (Oct)

--

F: --

P: --

U.K. Average Weekly Earnings (3-Month Average, Including Bonuses) YoY (Oct)

--

F: --

P: --

U.K. Average Weekly Earnings (3-Month Average, Excluding Bonuses) YoY (Oct)

--

F: --

P: --

France Services PMI Prelim (Dec)

--

F: --

P: --

France Composite PMI Prelim (SA) (Dec)

--

F: --

P: --

France Manufacturing PMI Prelim (Dec)

--

F: --

P: --

Germany Services PMI Prelim (SA) (Dec)

--

F: --

P: --

Germany Manufacturing PMI Prelim (SA) (Dec)

--

F: --

P: --

Germany Composite PMI Prelim (SA) (Dec)

--

F: --

P: --

Euro Zone Composite PMI Prelim (SA) (Dec)

--

F: --

P: --

Euro Zone Services PMI Prelim (SA) (Dec)

--

F: --

P: --

Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI Prelim (SA) (Dec)

--

F: --

P: --

U.K. Services PMI Prelim (Dec)

--

F: --

P: --

U.K. Manufacturing PMI Prelim (Dec)

--

F: --

P: --

U.K. Composite PMI Prelim (Dec)

--

F: --

P: --

Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Dec)

--

F: --

P: --

Germany ZEW Current Conditions Index (Dec)

--

F: --

P: --

Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Dec)

--

F: --

P: --

Euro Zone Trade Balance (Not SA) (Oct)

--

F: --

P: --

Euro Zone ZEW Current Conditions Index (Dec)

--

F: --

P: --

Euro Zone Trade Balance (SA) (Oct)

--

F: --

P: --

U.S. Retail Sales MoM (Excl. Automobile) (SA) (Oct)

--

F: --

P: --

Q&A with Experts
    • All
    • Chatrooms
    • Groups
    • Friends
    Connecting
    .
    .
    .
    Type here...
    Add Symbol or Code

      No matching data

      All
      Trump Updates
      Recommend
      Stocks
      Cryptocurrencies
      Central Banks
      Featured News
      • All
      • Russia-Ukraine Conflict
      • Middle East Flashpoint
      • All
      • Russia-Ukraine Conflict
      • Middle East Flashpoint
      Search
      Products

      Charts Free Forever

      Chats Q&A with Experts
      Screeners Economic Calendar Data Tools
      Membership Features
      Data Warehouse Market Trends Institutional Data Policy Rates Macro

      Market Trends

      Market Sentiment Order Book Forex Correlations

      Top Indicators

      Charts Free Forever
      Markets

      News

      News Analysis 24/7 Columns Education
      From Institutions From Analysts
      Topics Columnists

      Latest Views

      Latest Views

      Trending Topics

      Top Columnists

      Latest Update

      Signals

      Copy Rankings Latest Signals Become a signal provider AI Rating
      Contests
      Brokers

      Overview Brokers Assessment Rankings Regulators News Claims
      Broker listing Forex Brokers Comparison Tool Live Spread Comparison Scam
      Q&A Complaint Scam Alert Videos Tips to Detect Scam
      More

      Business
      Events
      Careers About Us Advertising Help Center

      White Label

      Data API

      Web Plug-ins

      Affiliate Program

      Awards Institution Evaluation IB Seminar Salon Event Exhibition
      Vietnam Thailand Singapore Dubai
      Fans Party Investment Sharing Session
      FastBull Summit BrokersView Expo
      Recent Searches
        Top Searches
          Markets
          News
          Analysis
          User
          24/7
          Economic Calendar
          Education
          Data
          • Names
          • Latest
          • Prev

          View All

          No data

          Scan to Download

          Faster Charts, Chat Faster!

          Download App
          English
          • English
          • Español
          • العربية
          • Bahasa Indonesia
          • Bahasa Melayu
          • Tiếng Việt
          • ภาษาไทย
          • Français
          • Italiano
          • Türkçe
          • Русский язык
          • 简中
          • 繁中
          Open Account
          Search
          Products
          Charts Free Forever
          Markets
          News
          Signals

          Copy Rankings Latest Signals Become a signal provider AI Rating
          Contests
          Brokers

          Overview Brokers Assessment Rankings Regulators News Claims
          Broker listing Forex Brokers Comparison Tool Live Spread Comparison Scam
          Q&A Complaint Scam Alert Videos Tips to Detect Scam
          More

          Business
          Events
          Careers About Us Advertising Help Center

          White Label

          Data API

          Web Plug-ins

          Affiliate Program

          Awards Institution Evaluation IB Seminar Salon Event Exhibition
          Vietnam Thailand Singapore Dubai
          Fans Party Investment Sharing Session
          FastBull Summit BrokersView Expo

          Trump to Launch World Liberty Financial Crypto Platform on Monday

          Samantha Luan

          Cryptocurrency

          Summary:

          Donald Trump said in a video posted to X that his World Liberty Financial crypto project would launch Sept. 16.

          Donald Trump’s crypto project World Liberty Financial will launch on Monday, Sept. 16, former President and Republican presidential bidder announced.

          In a Sept. 12 video posted to X, Trump said he would be going live on the platform on Monday to launch the project controlled by his sons, Donald Jr. and Eric Trump.

          “We’re embracing the future with crypto and leaving the slow and outdated big banks behind,” he said.

          Trump has previously made several cryptic posts concerning World Liberty Financial, vaguely positioning it as a decentralized finance (DeFi) platform for borrowing and lending.

          A reported white paper said the project will allow users to store money in a digital wallet, offer a credit account system, borrow or lend cash to others, and use tokens to invest in assets like crypto.

          A nontransferable governance token has also been mentioned as part of the platform.

          Statements from World Liberty Financial have also suggested it wants to spread the use of United States dollar-pegged stablecoins in DeFi.

          Along with bullish comments about stablecoins, the project has teased a partnership and collaboration with DeFi protocol Aave, possibly indicating World Liberty Financial will be built on the Ethereum blockchain.

          Trump has secured strong support within the crypto community since promising to support the industry if again elected president in November.

          He’s pledged clearer regulations and said he’d fire Securities and Exchange Commission chair Gary Gensler, who has undertaken enforcement actions against multiple large crypto firms.

          Sentiment around World Liberty Financial has been mixed, with some questioning Trump’s decision to launch the project while also running for president, with World Liberty Financial set to go live 50 days out from the election.

          Nic Carter, a Trump supporter and Castle Island Ventures partner, told Politico on Sept. 6 that the project was a “huge mistake.”

          “It looks like Trump’s inner circle is just cashing in on his recent embrace of crypto in a kind of naive way,” he said. “Frankly it looks like they’re burning a lot of the goodwill that’s been built with the industry so far.”

          Those linked to the venture have faced an onslaught from hackers and scammers.

          Scammers also managed to hack Donald’s daughter-in-law Lara and his daughter Tiffany Trump’s X accounts on Sept. 4, posting sham links claiming to be connected to World Liberty Financial.

          On Aug. 30, the official World Liberty Financial Telegram group had to denounce a series of fake ads and giveaways attempting to profit from hype around the project.

          While Aug. 8, Eric Trump had to clarify that a Restore the Republic (RTR) memecoin was not affiliated with World Liberty Financial after it surged $155 million within hours of its debut.

          Source: COINTELEGRAPH

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Russia To Spend Us$646 Mil To Block Vpns, Forbes Reports

          Thomas

          Russia’s communications watchdog Roskomnadzor plans to spend 59 billion rubles (RM2.8 billion) over the next five years to upgrade its internet traffic-filtering capabilities, the Russian edition of Forbes reported on Tuesday.

          The money will be used to upgrade hardware used to filter internet traffic, as well as block or slow down certain resources, Forbes reported, citing documents.

          Russia passed a law in 2019 to enable the country to cut itself off entirely from the internet, in what it calls a campaign to maintain its digital sovereignty. Following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin forced out several foreign social media and internet companies, although many services remain accessible via virtual private networks, or VPNs.

          The system upgrades will allow Russian authorities to better restrict access to VPNs, according to the document.

          New equipment has been purchased yearly since 2020 as traffic volumes grow, Roskomnadzor’s press service said, according to Forbes.

          The Biden administration recently hosted representatives of several major tech companies, including Amazon.com Inc, Alphabet Inc’s Google and Microsoft Corp, to discuss government-funded internet censorship evasion tools, Reuters reported last week.

          Source: The edge markets

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          More Weakness for the USD to Come as the FED Cuts 25bps

          ACY

          Economic

          Forex

          The US dollar has experienced a slight decline, dropping by around 1.0% since its peak earlier last week. Recent economic data and signals from the Federal Reserve have increased the likelihood of a more significant interest rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for September 18th. While the market remains divided on whether the rate cut will be 25 or 50 basis points, the odds of a larger 50bps cut have strengthened, driven by weaker-than-expected labour market data.
          More Weakness for the USD to Come as the FED Cuts 25bps_1
          Midweek reports, including the JOLTS job openings and the ADP employment figures, both indicated a slowdown in the labour market. Additionally, the ISM Employment Index came in below expectations, reinforcing concerns about economic weakness. These developments have raised questions about how aggressively the Fed will move to address the changing economic conditions.
          Federal Reserve officials have weighed in on this issue, suggesting that they are open to the possibility of a larger rate cut if the labour market continues to deteriorate. For example, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly emphasized in a recent interview that a worsening labour market would be concerning, although the pace of any rate cuts remains uncertain. Similarly, Chicago Fed President has noted that inflation is steadily decreasing, but the growing signs of weakness in the job market could justify multiple rate cuts to support the economy.
          The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which currently estimates the unemployment rate at 4.0% and core PCE inflation at 2.8% by the end of the year, may undergo significant revisions depending on the results of the upcoming payroll report. This report is crucial as it could spark substantial movements in bond yields and the US dollar, particularly the 2-year Treasury note, which has already seen its yield decline by 23 basis points this week.
          From a foreign exchange perspective, the dollar’s future performance will likely hinge on the health of the labour market. A weaker-than-expected jobs report could drive further dollar weakness, especially if equity markets react negatively. In contrast, a strong report might trigger a rebound in short-term yields and provide some support for the dollar. Among G10 currencies, the yen, Swiss franc, and euro have all outperformed the dollar this week, reflecting market positioning for a potentially weak jobs report.
          Looking ahead, the yen stands to gain the most if expectations for a 50bps rate cut solidify, with USD/JPY possibly retreating into the 130s. This could continue to unwind the dollar’s strong rally against the yen seen in recent years.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Tropical Storm Francine Disrupts Gulf Coast Oil, Gas Output

          Samantha Luan

          Commodity

          Energy

          Tropical Storm Francine forced some oil drillers to halt production and evacuate crews as it barreled through the Gulf of Mexico and was expected to strengthen to a Category 2 hurricane as it heads toward the coast of Louisiana.

          Strong winds and a dangerous storm surge are expected along the state’s shoreline, the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory issued at 1am in Houston on Tuesday. Francine is “anticipated to be just offshore of the coasts of northern Mexico and southern Texas through Tuesday and make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday,” the centre said.

          The system, located 690km south-southwest of Cameron, Louisiana, saw winds accelerate to 105kph from 80kph on Monday. A hurricane watch is in effect for communities along part of the Louisiana coast.

          Chevron Corp, Exxon Mobil Corp and Shell plc are among the companies taking measures like evacuating workers from vulnerable installations, suspending drilling activities and shutting in some wells. The storm’s forecast path intersects with fields that account for roughly 125,000 barrels of crude and 300 million cubic feet of natural gas on a daily basis, according to Bloomberg calculations using government data.

          Gas supply to Cameron LNG also fell about 41% from the previous day, according to data compiled by BloombergNEF.

          On its expected track, Francine may rake nine major platforms, including Enchilada, Cerveza, Perdido and Hoover. That said, the storm probably won’t have a large impact on overall energy production, Chuck Watson, a disaster modeller with Enki Research, said in a social media post.

          Meanwhile, the US Coast Guard declared Port Condition X-Ray at Houston, Galveston and other key Texas harbours, a warning that rough weather is expected within 48 hours. One upside to Francine as it moves ashore is that it will bring much-needed water to the parched Mississippi River, temporarily raising the fortune of shippers before dry conditions set in again.

          This will be the third storm to hit the US mainland this year. As Francine nears the coastline, it could encounter cross winds, or wind shear, that would threaten to weaken it. Still, the storm is currently forecast to make landfall with 100mph winds, which would make it a Category 2 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale.

          The hurricane centre is tracking two other disturbances in the central Atlantic Ocean with the potential to become tropical storms. Both are hundreds of miles or more from populated areas.

          Source: Theedgemarkets

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Macro Trader: Short-, Medium-, And Long-Run Thoughts On The FOMC Outlook

          Pepperstone

          Economic

          A collection of thoughts on the Fed’s short-, and longer-run, outlook:
          •The August jobs report was, in an ideal world, meant to resolve the ‘25bp vs. 50bp’ debate over the September decision. Instead, the Fed’s hawks can point to a drop in unemployment, to 4.2%, and a doubling in the pace of earnings growth, to 0.4% MoM, as reasons to begin normalisation with a ‘run of the mill’ 25bp cut. On the other hand, the doves can point to a slowing in headline job growth, with the 12-month average of job gains now under 200k for the first time in three years, as reason to instead plump for a ‘jumbo’ 50bp cut.
          •Pending a potential surprise in the August CPI report, a 25bp cut seems like the most likely outcome at this stage – data suggests a gradually normalising, not a crumbling, labour market, and it would be sensible for policy to also normalise in a ‘slow and steady’ manner.
          •This creates an interesting dynamic where, it appears, market participants desire a greater degree of short-term policy easing than the Fed are likely to deliver. Where participants wish policymakers would ‘get on with it’ in returning rates to neutral, those policymakers seem likely to plot a more careful path. That mixture, for now, is a rather dismal one for sentiment, and could create some short-term headwinds for equities.
          •Over the medium-term, however, what the Fed do at their next meeting doesn’t matter especially much.
          •As with the entirety of 2024, so far, the most important factor for global equities, and sentiment more broadly, has not been what the Fed will do next, but what they can do next. Here, policymakers still have >500bp of room to cut rates, were the economy, or financial conditions, to require it. This is the essence of the ‘Fed put’.
          •This ‘put’, of course, has become stronger of late, since Chair Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole, whereby Powell clearly stated that policymakers “seek or welcome” a further cooling in labour market conditions. Clearly, a forceful policy response would be delivered were the labour market to soften further, with such a response likely acting as a backstop for equities were it to be required. Knowledge of this ‘put’ should underpin investor confidence to remain further out the risk curve, and keep dips relatively shallow in nature.
          •Looking even further ahead, into next year, the USD OIS curve currently discounts 227bp (i.e., 9 cuts) by July 2025. Although I think near-term pricing is too aggressive, I find it easier to envisage an environment where this rapid degree of rate cuts were to be delivered, particularly from the present starting point, where the fed funds rate resides 200bp above neutral.
          •Though the election complicates matters, and a cut larger than 25bp to kick-off the normalisation process would smack of panic, cutting in larger clips could well be warranted later this year/early next, particularly if the current combination of solid growth + gradually falling inflation + slowly rising unemployment continues to hold true. The ‘why wait?’ question becomes an easier one to answer the more inflation fades, and the more confidence that policymakers obtain in a sustainable return to the 2% inflation target.
          •The other factor to consider, here, is quantiatitve tightening. At the current pace of balance sheet run-off, the balance sheet looks set to return to its July 2020 level by the end of the year – we may as well now call this neutral, since the covid-era QE will likely never be entirely unwound (nor will the GFC-era purchases, by the way), effectively monetising $7tln of US government debt. A 25bp cut coupled with another QT taper, or even the end of QT entirely, would probably have the same macro impact as a 50bp move, albeit without the potential to cause a similar degree of market panic.
          •To sum up – markets want a 50bp cut, asap, but are unlikely to get it; nevertheless, the ‘Fed put’ remains firmly intact, and has actually grown more forceful throughout the year; faster, deeper, cuts could well come to fruition however, in the longer-run, if data gives the Fed confidence to get to neutral sooner rather than later; hence, short-term headwinds for sentiment could well emerge, amid consternation over the September meeting, though the longer-run ‘path of least resistance’ continues to point to the upside.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Canada's Third-quarter Growth Seen Much Slower Than Bank of Canada Forecast

          Samantha Luan

          Economic

          Canadian gross domestic product in the third quarter is likely to fall well short of the Bank of Canada's forecast, possibly coming in at less than half the estimate, with growth flagging and joblessness still rising, economists said.

          In July, the BoC had forecast Canada's annualized GDP in the third quarter would grow by 2.8%, led by falling borrowing costs, growth in exports and increase in household spending.

          Economists' lower expectations for growth reflect constrained consumer spending in recent weeks and the difficulty of Canada's growing ranks of immigrants to find jobs.

          A slide in growth projections, especially if substantial, could force the central bank to make larger interest rate cuts than previously envisioned to prevent the economy from slipping into recession in the coming quarters, according to a half dozen economists interviewed by Reuters.

          "I think it's looking less likely that the Bank of Canada's Q3 projections are actually going to take hold," said Andrew DiCapua, a senior economist at Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

          In the third quarter ending Sept. 30, Canada will probably record gross domestic product growth of around 1% to 1.5% on an annualized basis, DiCapua said, adding it looked more likely that the bank would be making deeper cuts.

          A slew of disappointing economic indicators coming from Statistics Canada on GDP and the labor force have pushed economists to update their models.

          Last month, Statscan said economic growth in June was flat and is likely to be unchanged for July. The labor force survey last week showed that unemployment hit 6.6% in August, a seven-year peak, excluding the pandemic period. The number of hours worked by employees in August also contracted, hitting income levels.

          "We have seen months and months for now that essentially the labor market has flattened out, no growth," said Pedro Antunes, chief economist at Conference Board of Canada, an independent think tank.

          "That's suggesting a very weak growth for Q3," he said, adding that bank's forecast could fall short by half or more.

          Household spending in Canada, which contributes 57% to the GDP, slowed to 0.2% in the second quarter as higher interest rates put a damper on consumer purchases. High mortgage costs and rent increases have eaten into disposable incomes.

          Population growth at a faster rate than economic expansion also bloated unemployment numbers, with a tepid economy failing to absorb a huge influx of immigrants. That dynamic has put pressure on growth, with per capita GDP contracting for five quarters in a row.

          DOWNSIDE RISKS

          Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem conceded last week that while the bank said it saw growth strengthening, there were some downside risks to the expected pick-up.

          The BoC, after keeping its key policy rate for over two-decade high of 5% for a year, trimmed it by a quarter point three times in a row since June, bringing it down by 75 basis points to 4.25%.

          David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie, said the jobs data reinforces the risks to BoC's growth outlook and the potential for a 50 basis point rate cut in October.

          The central bank is also likely to be wrong with its outlook on the output of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline and growth and vehicle exports, said Randall Bartlett, senior director of Canadian economics at Desjardins.

          The bank had said in its monetary policy report from July that export growth is expected to rise over the second half of the year, led by TMX and motor vehicle exports which would boost GDP.

          "We really think the Bank of Canada was overly optimistic in those two sectors in particular," he said.

          Desjardins is tracking a third quarter GDP of 1% against the central bank's 2.8% forecast, Bartlett said.

          Source: Theedgemarkets

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          A Snapshot of Major Economy Productivity and Costs

          WELLS FARGO

          Economic

          G10 Central Banks Cautiously Transition Toward Monetary Easing

          One important theme so far during 2024 has been a significant, albeit cautious, change in approach to monetary policy from major economy central banks as they have started to get the upper hand in their respective inflation battles. After a pronounced global tightening cycle and a sustained period of restrictive monetary policy, an ebbing of inflation pressures has allowed many G10 central banks to begin lowering policy interest rates.
          The Swiss National Bank was the first major economy central bank to deliver a rate cut in March, and has been joined by many other peer major economy central banks since. However, even as G10 central banks transition to monetary easing, some have continued to express concern about elevated wage growth and lingering inflation pressures, especially in the services sector. Over time, the views of select central banks have evolved, with the focus of concern shifting from elevated inflation to unexpected weakness in employment and economic growth. In that context, market participants continue to question how quickly monetary easing of various G10 central banks will progress. In this article, we examine major economy productivity and labor costs with the aim of offering insights into the potential pace of G10 central bank monetary easing.
          The evolving central bank landscape is best illustrated by the evolution of policymaker commentary over the past several months and quarters:
          •Early this year the Federal Reserve was attentive to inflation risks and needed “greater confidence” that inflation was moving sustainably toward its target. Given some easing in wage growth and a pickup in productivity, the Fed no longer views the labor market as a source of elevated inflationary pressures. With an increased focus on the employment aspect of its dual mandate, the Fed appears to be on the cusp of easing monetary policy.
          •The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) have both delivered initial rate cuts; however, even as both central banks have begun their monetary easing cycles they remain concerned about underlying inflation pressures—including those from services inflation and wage growth—which might lend itself to more gradual paces of monetary easing.
          •The Bank of Canada (BoC) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are two other central banks that have expressed an attentiveness toward the ways that labor market developments—such as wage or productivity growth—can affect the inflation outlook. The BoC has cut rates by a cumulative 75 bps so far, though continues to express some caution toward wage growth and services inflation. While noting improving inflation trends, the BoC has said “wage growth remains elevated relative to productivity.” Finally, the RBA has remained vigilant on wage and productivity growth. The central bank has said inflation remains high and sticky, and that there are upside risks to inflation due to high unit labor costs, as wage growth is “above the level that can be sustained given trend productivity growth.”
          Other central banks have also focused on wage, productivity and cost trends at times in their monetary policy announcements. Certainly from a theoretical perspective the interaction of wages, productivity and unit labor costs is a relevant influence behind cental banks' assessment of inflationary pressures. Wage gains that are not matched by productivity increases could make the production of goods and services more costly, input cost pressures that firms could potentially pass onto consumers in the form of higher prices. In contrast, a combination of slowing wage growth or rising productivity could reduce cost pressures, potentially leading to lessening inflation trends over time.

          Measuring Wages, Productivity and Unit Labor Costs

          Having established the significance and relevance of productivity and labor costs for G10 central bank policymakers, a comparison of these productivity and cost developments can potentially offer insight into how different central banks from different countries may approach their respective monetary easing cycles.
          Of course, the main difficulty, in our view, in providing a snapshot of productivity and costs across countries is identifying data that is comparable and timely enough in order to provide sufficiently useful insight. By necessity, there will always be some-tradeoffs involved. For our purposes, we believe the productivity and cost figures produced by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) offer the best compromise. The data are quarterly in frequency, and include:
          •Labor compensation per employee (a proxy for wage growth)
          •GDP per person employed (a proxy for productivity)
          •Unit labor costs (employment based)
          Depending on the exact measure or economy chosen, the latest available data are for either Q1-2024 or Q4-2023. In that sense and because some data will relate to slightly different time periods, the figures are not fully comparable. That said, we still think they are comparable enough, and recent enough, to provide some insight into the economic environment the respective central banks face, and the approach those central banks may take.
          Looking first at labor compensation per employee, it's clear why many central banks continue to express concerns about elevated wage growth. Until very recently, several economies and regions fell into the high wage growth category, which for this analysis we define as gains of 5% year-over-year or higher. These include New Zealand (6.1%), Norway (8.3%), Sweden (5.6%), the United Kingdom (6.4%) and the Eurozone (5.0%). A few fall into a moderate wage growth category of 2.5% to 5.0%, including Australia (3.9%), Canada (3.9%) and the United States (4.4%). Only a couple fall into a low wage growth category, including Japan (0.6%) and Switzerland (2.3%).
          Of some note, and with the exception of Japan, recent wage growth is also significantly above the levels that prevailed from 2010-2019. Depending on the country, recent wage growth is anywhere between 1 percentage point to 5 percentage points above the levels that prevailed during that decade. Finally, in terms of the most recent developments, while some economies saw a slight easing in wage growth in late 2023 and early 2024 period, wage growth was steady-to-stronger in recent quarters in Canada, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, the United States and the Eurozone during that period. With the possible exception of Japan and Switzerland, recent wage developments in our view offer at least some caution against easing monetary policy at an excessively rapid pace.
          A Snapshot of Major Economy Productivity and Costs_1
          The concerns emanating from elevated wage growth are compounded, we believe, by the recent underwhelming productivity performance of most major economies, as measured by GDP per employed person.
          Among the major economies, only in the United States has there been any significant uptick in productivity, with the latest figures showing GDP per employed person rising 2.4% year-over-year. This in part might reflect an accelerated path toward the utilization of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology, not necessarily in terms of the adoption of the technology in everyday use, but in terms of the build-out and infrastructure required to support the eventual widespread use of AI across the economy. A few countries have shown rather modest productivity gains, including Japan (0.7%), Norway (0.3%) and Sweden (0.3%). Many countries and regions, however, have shown a cyclical downturn in productivity during the most recent quarters. The most recent figures indicate productivity declines in Australia (-1.6%), Canada (-1.3%). New Zealand (-2.6%), Switzerland (-0.6%), United Kingdom (-0.6%) and the Eurozone (-0.6%).
          A Snapshot of Major Economy Productivity and Costs_2
          The lack of any perceptible productivity increase for many economies to offset elevated wage trends acts to exacerbate overall cost pressures. In fact, combining the labor compensation and productivity estimates above, the OECD calculates and estimates Unit Labor Costs—as the name suggests, the cost of labor required to produce a unit of output. Here, the contrast in cost pressures across the major economies becomes even more stark. For the most part, growth in unit labor costs are rising well in excess of 5% year-over-year or more, perhaps explaining why services and domestic inflation (areas that are more heavily influenced by wage and labor costs) are proving stubbornly persistent across many economies.
          Among the economies where the most recent figures are showing accelerated growth in unit labor costs are Australia (5.7%), Canada (5.2%), New Zealand (9.0%), Norway (7.9%), Sweden (5.8%), United Kingdom (7.0%) and the Eurozone (5.6%). Unit labor cost growth is moderate in the United States (1.9%) and Switzerland (2.9%). Only in Japan are cost pressures absent, with unit labor costs dipping 0.1% year-over-year at the most recent reading. Overall, however, considering elevated wage growth and recent disappointing productivity trends, growth in unit labor costs is in many cases running around 4 to 6 percentage points above the averages from the 2010-2019 period, a potential source of costs pressures that could contribute to some persistence in inflation.
          While not directly comparable to the OECD figures, data from national statistical agencies for more recent quarters are nonetheless illuminating. For the United States, labor compensation per hour and unit labor costs both slowed slightly further in Q2, reinforcing the trend of reducing costs pressures. In Canada, hourly compensation saw some slowing through Q2, also translating to some moderation in unit labor costs, an encouraging development. In the United Kingdom, a combination of some pickup in productivity in Q1 combined with some deceleration in hourly compensation has contributed to some slowing in unit labor cost growth, though likely still elevated at around a 5%-6% pace. And finally, Q2 data from Australia's national statistical agency indicated growth in unit labor costs that are still running in excess of 5% year-over-year.

          Potential Implications For Inflation, Monetary Policy

          Our assessment of productivity trends and labor cost pressures offers, in our view, some potential insights into the outlook for inflation and monetary policy across the major economies. To be sure, mapping labor cost pressures to inflationary trends is not a mechanical or one-for-one exercise. Several inflationary influences, including among others commodity prices, corporate profit margins and exchange rate fluctuations, can also act to influence inflationary trends. Moreover, the trade-off we highlighted above in identifying a data source that is sufficiently comparable as well as sufficiently timely means that key insights will be somewhat generic. With these caveats in mind, we still see some broad takeaways from this snapshot of productivity and cost trends across the major economies.
          •The Federal Reserve could deliver a relatively forceful and somewhat truncated rate cut cycle.
          Unit labor pressures are much lower in the United States compared to most other G10 economies, potentially offering the greatest potential for a reduction in underlying inflation trends and thus rapid rate cuts. Moreover, more highly productive economies are likely to be associated with higher neutral or long-run policy interest rates. This combination suggests a relatively aggressive and short-lived monetary easing cycle from the Fed, consistent with our view for Fed rate cuts to come to an end by mid-2025.
          •Slower and steadier policy easing from Australia, Canada, Sweden and the Eurozone.
          Unit labor costs for these economies were running between 5%-6% in late 2023 and early 2024, while these regions have also shown cyclical declines in productivity to varying degrees. That suggests that underlying inflation might decelerate only slowly for these economies, while somewhat lower productivity could also equate to a somewhat lower terminal policy interest rate. That backdrop suggests a steady and orderly pace of interest rate reductions. Indeed, some of these central banks that have begun lowering interest rates in a relatively regular manner (Bank of Canada, Riksbank) might still need to pause at times during their monetary easing cycle.
          •Lingering inflation concerns in New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom.
          Unit labor costs for these countries are still growing in excess of 6%, while the United Kingdom and New Zealand are experiencing cyclical productivity declines. Services and underlying inflation might take longer to abate, or be more subject to upside surprises, than for other major economies. Thus, although the Bank of England and Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently delivered initial rate cuts, we think these central banks are most at risk of needing to pause, and for longer than expected, during their respective monetary easing cycles.
          •In Switzerland and Japan, limited cost pressures means only limited need for policy restriction.
          We characterize Switzerland and Japan as relatively low growth economies with limited labor cost pressures. For the Swiss National Bank, that suggests few near-term impediments to further rate cuts. For the Bank of Japan, that suggests a sustainable increase in underlying inflation trends could remain something of a challenge, suggesting some risk of more gradual rather than more rapid monetary tightening.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share
          FastBull
          Copyright © 2025 FastBull Ltd

          728 RM B 7/F GEE LOK IND BLDG NO 34 HUNG TO RD KWUN TONG KLN HONG KONG

          TelegramInstagramTwitterfacebooklinkedin
          App Store Google Play Google Play
          Products
          Charts

          Chats

          Q&A with Experts
          Screeners
          Economic Calendar
          Data
          Tools
          Membership
          Features
          Function
          Markets
          Copy Trading
          Latest Signals
          Contests
          News
          Analysis
          24/7
          Columns
          Education
          Company
          Careers
          About Us
          Contact Us
          Advertising
          Help Center
          Feedback
          User Agreement
          Privacy Policy
          Business

          White Label

          Data API

          Web Plug-ins

          Poster Maker

          Affiliate Program

          Risk Disclosure

          The risk of loss in trading financial instruments such as stocks, FX, commodities, futures, bonds, ETFs and crypto can be substantial. You may sustain a total loss of the funds that you deposit with your broker. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.

          No decision to invest should be made without thoroughly conducting due diligence by yourself or consulting with your financial advisors. Our web content might not suit you since we don't know your financial conditions and investment needs. Our financial information might have latency or contain inaccuracy, so you should be fully responsible for any of your trading and investment decisions. The company will not be responsible for your capital loss.

          Without getting permission from the website, you are not allowed to copy the website's graphics, texts, or trademarks. Intellectual property rights in the content or data incorporated into this website belong to its providers and exchange merchants.

          Not Logged In

          Log in to access more features

          FastBull Membership

          Not yet

          Purchase

          Become a signal provider
          Help Center
          Customer Service
          Dark Mode
          Price Up/Down Colors

          Log In

          Sign Up

          Position
          Layout
          Fullscreen
          Default to Chart
          The chart page opens by default when you visit fastbull.com