Trump Says He Will Decide on Fed Governor Before End of the Week

Publicly listed Bitcoin (BTC) treasury companies bought $552 million worth of BTC while holders divested exchange-traded fund (ETF) shares between July 31 and August 4.

According to Farside Investors’ data, US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs registered $1.25 billion in outflows between July 31 and August 4. At the same time, data from Bitcoin Treasuries highlighted that corporate treasuries added 4,869 BTC in the same period.

The amount added by Bitcoin treasuries is worth nearly $552 million at the price of $113,418 as of press time, almost $700 million below the amount shed by ETF investors.

Metaplanet bought the largest amount of Bitcoin in the period, with 463 BTC added, worth over $54 million.

James Butterfill, CoinShares’ head of research, attributed the recent outflows to macro drivers. He cited last week’s Federal Open Market Committee remarks and stronger-than-expected economic data.

Supply shock

Despite the sell pressure from ETF holders surpassing the acquisition by publicly traded Bitcoin treasury vehicles, the BTC supply shrank significantly this year.

As of Aug. 4, public companies have bought 343,394 BTC, while Bitcoin investors exposed through ETFs have added 181,276 BTC. The combined amount of these two cohorts equals 524,670 BTC in practically seven months.

According to Glassnode data, 98,503 BTC were mined during the same period, over 5x lower than the amount absorbed by public companies and ETFs.

Notably, estimates point to a total of 164,250 BTC to be mined this year, which makes the stash of ETF investors and public companies more than 3x higher already, with more than four months to go.

Using Bitcoin’s price as a proxy, the supply shock scenario seems to be apparent to investors. Despite the recent macro turmoils, Bitcoin fell by only 4.2% last week.

Furthermore, BTC is still only 7.5% away from its all-time high of $122,054.86 registered on July 14.

Ongoing talks to open the Japanese market to Brazilian beef are focusing on supplies from three small Brazilian exporting states, upsetting other parts of the South American country's industry that are eager to reach the high-paying customers, according to multiple sources.

Brazil, the world's biggest beef exporter, has tried for two decades to crack the Japanese market without success. A deal would give Japan an alternative to its top suppliers, the United States and Australia, at a time when U.S. tariffs are reshaping global food trade.

Negotiations gained momentum after a state visit of Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in March to Japan, one of the world's largest beef importers.

But the current state of talks, which focus on states representing less than 4% of Brazil's exports by volume, worries meatpackers in the big beef-producing states of Sao Paulo, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Para.

Together, they accounted for nearly 60% of Brazil's total beef exports, or 1.72 million metric tons last year.

A Brazilian government memo, issued after a technical visit by Japanese officials in June, showed Brasília answered "a questionnaire for the import of beef from the southern part of the Republic Federation of Brazil," naming Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, and Santa Catarina.

Those three small exporting states were declared free of foot-and-mouth, a contagious viral disease in cattle, earlier than the other states, although Brazil acquired in May the national status of being free of the disease without vaccination from the World Organization for Animal Health. Brazil's last outbreak of the disease was in 2006, according to the government.

The Brazilian Agriculture Ministry did not have an immediate comment on its talks with Japan.

A local government source, who asked not to be named, confirmed talks were taking place by region. The person said Brazil initially has no plans to negotiate permits beyond the three states.

Beef sector representatives, including exporters, told Reuters they hope more states will be included.

"We know talks are difficult," said Paulo Mustefaga, head of beef lobbying group Abrafrigo, which represents Marfrig and smaller beef exporters. "The surprise for us is that this is now moving towards approval for only three states."

Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said it was aware of Brazil's status of being free of foot-and-mouth disease. It added that Japan is "conducting a risk assessment in accordance with Japanese procedures" ahead of issuing any export permits to Brazilian meatpackers, without elaborating.

US stocks retreated on Tuesday as investors digested the latest wave of corporate earnings, economic data, and various tariff updates.

The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) slid 0.5%, while the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell a more modest 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) was down nearly 0.7%.

Palantir (PLTR) stock jumped roughly 7% after the company's earnings report beat expectations and revealed its revenue had topped $1 billion in a quarter for the first time.

On Monday, stocks sharply rebounded after tanking on Friday in the aftermath of a number of market-shaking events, including a weak jobs report, fresh tariffs, new signs of rising prices, and President Trump's firing of the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Economic data released Tuesday morning showed the services sector unexpectedly flatlined in July. The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) services PMI registered a reading of 50.1 in July, down from June's reading of 50.8, and below the 51.5 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, Trump continued to amp up pressure on trade after this week after threatening to hike tariffs on India. In an interview with CNBC on Tuesday morning, President Trump said pharmaceutical imports could see tariffs of up to 250%. He also ruled out Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as a potential incoming Fed chair, but noted that Jerome Powell's successor could be named "soon."

Wall Street is now focused on the continuation of earnings season. On Tuesday, AMD (AMD) and Rivian (RIVN) are set to report their results. McDonald's (MCD) and Disney (DIS) earnings land Wednesday.

Oil fell for the fourth straight session as Russia weighed concessions to US President Donald Trump that may include an air truce with Ukraine.

West Texas Intermediate crude slid 1.7% to settle near $65 a barrel, adding to a declines over the previous three sessions. Bloomberg reported that the Kremlin is weighing options, including a pause on air strikes, to try to fend off Trump’s threat of secondary sanctions. Crude bounced from intraday lows after the Financial Times reported that Trump is considering blacklisting Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” of oil tankers if Putin doesn’t agree to a ceasefire by Friday.

The developments come just days ahead of the Aug. 8 deadline for Russia to reach a truce with Ukraine. US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to visit the nation this week.

“Trump’s sanctions against Russia are mostly noise, as the only thing that will impact flows against a geographically large, top three oil producer with heavy economic links to India and China is a physical blockade,” said Joe DeLaura, global energy strategist at Rabobank.

Trump earlier said he would raise tariffs on India substantially, accusing the country of helping to prolong Russia’s war against Ukraine by purchasing Moscow’s crude. New Delhi slammed the move as unjustified.

Oil has been on a round trip, rising a few dollars to trade around $70 and then falling back, as traders try to gauge whether Trump will follow through on his threats to punish Russian oil buyers. Crude prices have held up in recent months in part because inventory buildups haven’t appeared near vital pricing points and instead have been concentrated on China.

“It’s pretty hard to predict what’s going to happen between Russian sanctions, Iranian sanctions, Chinese storage, and then the underlying fundamentals of the oil markets,” BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Murray Auchincloss said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “Those are the things that’ll drive oil market prices moving forward.”

Trend-following commodity traders known as CTAs may be contributing to the slide, selling as much as 66% of their maximum size as prices drop, said Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities.

“In nearly every scenario for prices, CTAs will notably sell their WTI and Brent crude longs over the course of this week,” Ghali said.

India has emerged as the biggest buyer of Russian seaborne exports of crude following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, soaking up discounted barrels shunned by western nations and ramping up purchases from almost zero to about one-third of imports. China is also a major taker of Moscow’s oil.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies announced another major output hike just days ago, fully completing the return of one layer of supply cuts. The group will now have to decide whether to return more barrels in the coming months, despite forecasts of oversupply into the end of the year.

Meanwhile, Diamondback Energy Inc., the largest independent Permian Basin oil driller, warned of an influx of crude supplies to markets in the coming months and said it’s cutting back on capital spending.

Against that backdrop, both BP and Saudi Aramco said Tuesday that oil demand is holding up. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said US tariffs are having a limited impact on demand, while consumption is being supported by gasoline and jet fuel use in the US and China.

An array of trade crosscurrents continued Tuesday afternoon. There has been a push for last-minute deals, continued fuzziness on previously announced trade commitments, and an indication from President Trump that a deal to delay tariffs on goods from China is "close."It all comes as global importers brace for the Thursday morning deadline. That's when President Trump promises to implement a central plank of his trade agenda: a tiered approach to "reciprocal" tariffs ranging from 10% to 50%.

Meanwhile, talks continued on varied fronts. For example, the Swiss president announced she would fly to Washington, D.C., to try to win last-minute concessions. She added Tuesday that "the aim is to present a more attractive offer to the United States" to avert a 39% tariff on goods from her nation.Meanwhile, India faces a divergent situation, with Trump telling CNBC on Tuesday morning, "We settled on 25% [tariffs], but I think I am going to raise that very substantially over the next 24 hours."India has slammed Trump's threats as unjustified and has seen its chances of a deal dwindle. Top aides for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are also reportedly traveling this week — not to the US but instead to Moscow.It's all part of a flurry of last-minute moves and a message from Trump that he's full speed ahead, with no plans to delay a tariff increase starting Thursday.

Trump even teased during the CNBC appearance that he probably won't run for president again but would like to, in part because, in his view, "people love the tariffs." (Trump is, of course, barred by the Constitution from running for a third term, though he's often floated the idea.)Switzerland and India are two countries currently on the outside looking in, but even nations that recently struck a trade deal continued to try to prepare for the tariff piece to take effect.Japan's top trade negotiator is also reportedly due in Washington, D.C., this week for talks to ensure that a plan to cut auto tariffs to 15% proceeds. Likewise, talks with the EU continue as negotiators there are reportedly still pushing for exemptions, such as on wine and spirits.Trump also weighed in Tuesday morning on talks with China. Markets are closely watching for any signs of an agreement to delay a tariff snapback scheduled for Aug. 12, with Trump saying, "We're getting very close to a deal."Trump suggested that he would likely meet with President Xi Jinping "at some point in the not-too-distant future."

The president added that new sector-specific tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals are likely and that at least those pharmaceutical tariffs could be announced "within the next week or so."

New details for some nations — and a focus on India and SwitzerlandThere is also some new clarity on some technical details around how the new tariff landscape will likely work beginning at 12:01 a.m. ET on Thursday.

US customs officials this week offered additional technical guidance in a new document on how it will handle some tariff exemptions.The news there may give some select importers a short-term breather. But with a full tally, according to Bloomberg Economics, the average US tariff rate is now expected to rise to 15.2% if duties go forward as planned.

That's a jump from current rates of 13.3% and another jump from the 2.3% duties seen in 2024 before Trump took office.The overall landscape set to be in effect Thursday will cover nearly every country on the globe. It also comes after Trump and his team set "bespoke" rates largely based on the trade deficit, with many of America's top trading partners seeing a key new standard of 15% tariff, while others will see higher rates.

Countries from the European Union to South Korea to Japan struck deals at that 15% rate, but open questions remain.Other Asian countries have struck deals in the 19%-20% range. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer recently said on CBS that the published rates included many agreements, "some of these deals are announced, some are not," with other nations simply being dictated tariffs based on the level of the trade deficit.

Switzerland is one nation for which the US has dictated tariffs. Its delegation will be in Washington on Tuesday to push for lower rates.But on Tuesday morning, Trump suggested that it would be an uphill climb and that a recent call with the country didn't go well because "they essentially pay no tariffs," even as talks are clearly set to continue there.

As for India, any immediate offramp appears unlikely because of that nation's connections with Russia and Russian oil.A note Tuesday from Capital Economics suggested that India could, in theory, offer concessions to diversify its energy sources, "but we doubt that India would make a wholehearted effort to wean itself off Russian oil [as it could upset relations and] it would not play well to be seen caving to Trump's demands."

At the same time, reports from Bloomberg and the Times of India revealed that two top aides to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are traveling not to the US but to Russia in the coming days and weeks — even amid Trump's ever-escalating threats.Trump on Tuesday morning suggested talks are on ice for now and will be complicated when they resume, adding that "the sticking point with India is that tariffs are too high."

In the last few days, investors received several important updates that affected the USD/JPY currency pair. The focus remains on central banks, both of which kept interest rates unchanged. But they are now moving in different directions — the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates soon, while the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates in September.

The biggest impact came from US labor market data. A downward revision in past job numbers made the data look worse than expected, which weakened the US dollar. As a result, selling pressure on USD/JPY has increased, and the recent upward move in the pair may be coming to an end.

As expected, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged and continued its cautious monetary policy, mainly due to concerns about the trade war. However, that uncertainty has eased after Japan and the US agreed on the terms of their trade deal, which Governor Ueda highlighted in the BOJ’s statement.

Meanwhile, inflation remains above target. The bank raised its average core inflation forecast for the year from 2.2% to 2.7%. Policymakers also noted that inflation in food prices is likely to persist for a while, but they do not expect it to significantly affect core inflation.

Meanwhile, across the Pacific, the Federal Reserve has also kept interest rates steady and offered no clear guidance on future changes. At the same time, weaker labor market data from the US has pushed the chances of a rate cut in September to above 90%.

Before that, though, several key economic reports from the US are due, especially on inflation. So far, the data shows that the slowdown in inflation has started to lose momentum. If the upcoming numbers come in higher than expected, the Federal Reserve could find itself in a tough spot—balancing signs of a slowing economy with inflation that remains above its target. On top of this, political pressure on the Fed Chair and growing opposition at home could end up pushing the central bank closer to cutting rates.

Friday’s US labor market data triggered a sharp drop in the US dollar, pushing USDJPY lower. The next likely move for sellers is to test the local support zone near 146 yen per dollar.

If sellers manage to break below 146, the next support levels to watch are 143 and 140 yen per dollar. On the upside, 151 remains a key resistance level that would challenge any bearish momentum.