Trump Calls For 30-day Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire, Warns Of More Sanctions

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Political

Summary:

U.S. President Donald Trump called on Thursday for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, warning that Washington and its partners would impose further sanctions if the ceasefire is not respected.

Ukraine has expressed readiness to accept a U.S. proposal to enact an immediate 30-day ceasefire, while Russia has proposed only a three-day ceasefire to coincide with the 80th anniversary of the end of World War Two on Thursday.

Trump said in a social media post: "If the (30-day) ceasefire is not respected, the U.S. and its partners will impose further sanctions."

"Hopefully, an acceptable ceasefire will be observed, and both Countries will be held accountable for respecting the sanctity of these direct negotiations," Trump said.

"This ceasefire must ultimately build toward a Peace Agreement. It can all be done very quickly, and I will be available on a moment’s notice if my services are needed."

Trump has said he wants to the end the war in Ukraine but his administration has also threatened to abandon its attempts to broker a deal if Russia and Ukraine do not make headway.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday he told Trump in a telephone call that Kyiv was ready for a 30-day ceasefire with Russia "starting this minute."

The Ukrainian president said Russia had to demonstrate its readiness to end the war, starting with an unconditional ceasefire.

Ukraine's foreign minister said on Thursday Russia had repeatedly violated its own 3-day ceasefire hours after it began and called the initiative a "farce", while Moscow said Kyiv had continued fighting.

Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. It had annexed Crimea in 2014.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

China–U.S. Trade War

Energy

Recent U.S. sanctions on two small Chinese refiners for buying Iranian oil have created difficulties receiving crude and led them to sell product under other names, sources familiar with the matter said, evidence of the disruption that Washington's stepped-up pressure is inflicting on Tehran's biggest oil buyer.

The targeting of independent refiners, known as teapots, marked an escalation in Washington's efforts to cut off Tehran's export revenue as President Donald Trump seeks to pressure Iran into a deal over its nuclear programme.

Washington's sanctions against Shandong Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical in March and Shandong Shengxing Chemical in April have also begun to deter other, larger independent Chinese refiners from buying Iranian crude, three of the sources said.

About five plants in the refining hub of Shandong province have halted purchases of Iranian oil since last month, worried about being hit by sanctions, two trading executives said. That wariness is the main reason discounts for Iranian Light have widened to $2.30-$2.40 a barrel against ICE Brent from about $2 a month ago, the executives and another source said.

Among the inconveniences faced by the two sanctioned teapots, state-run Shandong Port Group, the main port operator in the province, has denied entry to vessels loaded with crude they have purchased, five trade sources said. That follows the port group's January ban on port calls by U.S.-sanctioned tankers.

Shandong Port Group and Shengxing did not respond to requests for comment. A Luqing executive declined to comment.

Large state banks have also stopped providing Luqing with operational capital for purchasing crude, forcing it to work with smaller banks, four of the sources said.

The sources declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.

Beijing says it opposes unilateral sanctions and defends as legitimate its trade with Iran, which ships about 90% of its oil exports to China. However, Chinese customs data has not shown any oil shipped from Iran since July 2022, with Iranian crude imports instead labelled as originating from Malaysia or other countries.

SHIPPING, SALES HEADACHES

The Shandong Port Group's banning of cargoes for the two refineries has forced them to discharge at other ports, according to three sources.

In one case, the tanker Bei Hai Ming Wang carrying oil for the Shengxing refinery was rejected when it sought to land at the Laizhou port, controlled by Shandong Port Group, around April 21, according to a source familiar with the matter.

It eventually unloaded on May 2 at the privately owned Wantong Crude Oil Terminal in neighbouring Dongying, data from analytics firm Vortexa showed.

In another sign of trading disruption from the sanctions, two Asia-based oil product traders who had previously dealt with Luqing said they stopped doing so after it was sanctioned.

In addition, no shipments of gasoline blendstock have been recorded since the end of March out of Laizhou port, used by Luqing for most of its blendstock exports, Kpler and LSEG shiptracking data showed.

That contrasts with the first three months of this year when 83,000 metric tons (701,000 barrels) of methyl tertiary butyl ether, a key gasoline blendstock export, were shipped from Laizhou, accounting for 15% of China's total outflow of the blendstock.

State giant CNOOC stopped supplying crude to Shandong Haihua Group's 40,000 barrel-per-day refinery, operated by Luqing, shortly after the U.S. sanctions were announced, three trade sources and a Shandong-based Chinese oil market consultant said.

CNOOC did not respond to a request for comment. Calls to Haihua went unanswered.

The two teapots have also begun selling product through new entities, according to seven trade sources, with Luqing using Shouguang Jiaqing Petroleum Sales and Shengxing selling via Shandong Xuxing Petrochemical. Calls to the two entities seeking comment went unanswered.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Stocks

Coinbase Global Inc.’s first-quarter revenue jumped while profit declined as the largest US crypto exchange navigated the volatile price swings of the digital asset market.

Revenue increased about 24% to $2 billion from the year-ago period, though it was around 10% sequentially lower from the fourth quarter, the San Francisco-based company said in a blog post Thursday. Revenue was expected to be $2.105 billion, according to the average forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Net income fell 94% to $66 million, or 24 cents per share. Much of the decline was due to Coinbase marking its crypto holdings to market price. Coinbase’s shares fell about 2% in after-hours trading. The stock is down 17% so far this year.

Coinbase had its second-highest monthly transacting users in the quarter, Alesia Haas, the company’s chief financial officer, said in an interview. Many of these customers don’t just trade but also use other Coinbase services, such as staking, she said.

“We are gaining share, we are driving utility,” Haas said. “We are seeing a healthy maturation of the products.”

Coinbase has been seeking to lessen its reliance on positive investor sentiment to adding services and expanding into new sectors. Earlier Thursday, Coinbase said it agreed to acquire Deribit, the world’s largest exchange for Bitcoin and Ether options, for $2.9 billion.

The acquisition marks Coinbase’s most ambitious push yet into the lucrative crypto derivatives market, with Deribit’s total trading volumes nearly doubling last year to almost $1.2 trillion. It also comes on a day when Bitcoin hit $100,000 for the first time since February amid easing global trade tensions.

“This is the largest crypto M&A deal in history,” Cantor analyst Brett Knoblauch said in a note Thursday, adding, “We believe this is an A+ acquisition for COIN.”

In a shareholder letter on Thursday, Coinbase said it generated about $240 million of total transaction revenue in April. It expects second-quarter subscription and services revenue to be within $600-$680 million range, as the company expects sequential growth “in stablecoin revenue to be more than offset by a decline in blockchain rewards revenue due to lower asset prices.”

Revenues from Circle’s USDC stablecoin, from which Coinbase receives a share, rose 32% sequentially to $298 million in the first quarter. Growth was partially offset by lower average interest rates, the company said.

Cryptocurrencies rallied earlier this year when crypto-friendly President Donald Trump took office. He quickly replaced key agency heads with crypto-friendly people. The Securities and Exchange Commission closed investigations and cases into a slew of crypto companies. Then the news of global tariffs have begun impacting crypto as well as other asset classes. More recently, though, bellwether Bitcoin has recovered much for its value lost during the dip.

“In the first half of April, it was still pretty weak, but over the last few weeks, it’s started to come back,” Owen Lau, an analyst at Oppenheirmer & Co. Inc., said of the crypto market in an interview ahead of the earnings. “April is still slightly up from March.”

Source: Bloomberg

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Manuel

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

President Trump announced his first deal on Thursday since launching a global trade war. He unveiled a limited pact with the United Kingdom that would lower barriers on some goods, such as automobiles and agriculture, while leaving many details yet to be worked out.

It's a "tremendous trade deal for both countries," Trump said Thursday in the Oval Office. "This is a fantastic, historic day," added UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who joined the event over the phone.

"The final details are being written up" and will be concluded in the coming weeks, Trump added.

One key change not in the offing is any adjustment to the 10% baseline tariffs that Trump imposed on goods from nearly every country in the world. Those duties are set to stay in place, with the president reiterating Thursday that he views 10% as the minimum and that other countries will face far higher duties.

The core of the deal is essentially a trade where the UK will get a lowering of US duties on key sectors. Most in focus are steel — US duties on UK-made steel will drop from 25% to 0% — and car exports, where duties are set to be reduced from 27.5% to 10% according to a release from the UK.

In return, Prime Minister Starmer is offering concessions to open the UK markets more to things like US autos, ethanol, machinery, and agricultural products, as well as ongoing negotiations on so-called digital service taxes that hit US tech companies.

In one example, the UK will remove the tariff on ethanol completely.

In a fact sheet, the White House claimed "unprecedented" new access to the UK market, which it said represents a $5 billion opportunity for new exports.

Trump also said the deal includes provisions for streamlined customs procedures for US exports and new economic national security measures. Secretary Lutnick added that Boeing is set to make new purchases of British airport engines as part of the deal.

Unanswered questions

Yet the unanswered questions were abundant.

In one example, Trump focused heavily on US beef exports in his opening remarks but then acknowledged that the UK wouldn't be changing its beef standards, which have been a far bigger hangup than other issues like tariffs.

"I think they'll take what they want," Trump said of beef exports.

"There will be no weakening of UK food standards on imports," added the release from London, describing the deal as focused on new reciprocal market access, including a new tariff-free quota for UK farmers.

The deal to reduce US car tariffs to 10% will also only apply to the first 100,000 vehicles imported into the US by UK car manufacturers annually. That figure, the UK government noted, is approximately equal to the total exported last year.

Another piece of the negotiations was around a digital services taxes (DSTs) that impact American tech companies operating in the UK and elsewhere. The issue was mentioned briefly during the announcement but Trump trade counselor Peter Navarro clarified to reporters later in the day that the issue is "still in negotiations" but remains a "very big deal to President Trump."

"Work will continue on the remaining sectors — such as pharmaceuticals and remaining reciprocal tariffs," the UK government added.

The announcement was enough to push US stocks higher on Thursday as investors turned optimistic that Trump's trade war may be easing.

But others were more cautious about the import of the announcement.

"I think it is going to be underwhelming as an opening salvo," Henrietta Treyz of Veda Partners predicted during a Yahoo Finance Live appearance.

She noted it was good for groups like UK automakers but said, "There are much bigger pieces of this pie," pointing to still-outstanding deals on partners like South Korea, Japan, Canada, Mexico, and India, where deals could be weeks or months away.

Overall, the UK has been spared the most intensive actions from Trump. A recent Yale Budget Lab report found that the UK economy is likely to be 0.2% bigger in the long run as a result of tariffs imposed to date, while other nations like Canada and China are set to take a hit and turn negative.

Today's announcement was the second trade win for Starmer, who inked a new trade agreement with India earlier this week.

'A baby step'

Other reactions to the announcement from some in the financial community included skepticism about how far-reaching the agreement will end up being.

Dan Ives of Wedbush called the announcement "a baby step start of getting some deals/framework on the table," adding that "the reality is that the market and especially tech investors will view this announcement as a yawner ... with the laser focus being China negotiations, India, and Vietnam."

Terry Haines of Pangaea Policy added that, for markets, "the existence of today's deal matters more than any detail, because it confirms for jittery and impatient markets fundamental things," most importantly that Trump will move forward on deals.

Indeed, markets will have another round of trade talks to watch this weekend when two top Trump aides travel to Switzerland to begin those talks with China.

Trump also looked ahead to this weekend's talks on Thursday, predicting, "I think we will have a very good weekend." He offered optimism that progress would be possible in the days ahead, and regarding tariffs, if those talks go well, "you can't get any higher, so you know it's coming down."

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Legislation that would create a regulatory framework for U.S. dollar-pegged cryptocurrency tokens known as stablecoins faced a setback on Thursday as the bill failed to clear a key hurdle in the U.S. Senate.

The setback is a blow to the crypto industry, which has long pushed for lawmakers to pass legislation creating new rules for digital assets. The sector spent more than $119 million backing pro-crypto congressional candidates in last year's elections and had tried to paint the issue as bipartisan.

Stablecoins, a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a constant value, usually a 1:1 dollar peg, are commonly used by crypto traders to move funds between tokens.

Their use has grown rapidly in recent years, and proponents say that they could be used to send payments instantly. Analysts and lobbyists had once considered stablecoin legislation almost certain to pass this year, but the bill - dubbed the GENIUS Act in the Senate - has faced pushback from Democrats as frustration has grown over President Donald Trump's various crypto ventures.

In a vote on Thursday, only 49 senators voted to advance the bill to a full vote, falling short of the 60 votes needed to formally end debate on the bill. Notably, two Republican senators - Senator Josh Hawley and Senator Rand Paul - voted alongside Democrats against moving forward with the bill.

"While we've made meaningful progress on the GENIUS Act, the work is not yet complete, and I simply cannot in good conscience ask my colleagues to vote for this legislation when the text isn't finished," said Senator Mark Warner, a Democrat who earlier voted to advance the bill out of the Senate Banking Committee, in a statement.

A group of Democrats, including Warner, that initially supported the legislation said on Saturday that Republicans had failed to negotiate on stronger provisions related to foreign stablecoin issues and anti-money-laundering protections.

Senate Democrats more broadly have expressed concerns about the bill especially after Trump's crypto business World Liberty Financial announced last week that its stablecoin would be used by an Abu Dhabi investment firm for its $2 billion investment in crypto exchange Binance.

In a speech on the Senate floor after the vote to move the bill toward a full vote failed, Senate Majority Leader John Thune expressed disappointment with Democrats, accusing them of denying the White House a bipartisan win.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

U.S. President Donald Trump renewed his criticism on Thursday of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, calling him a "fool" and complaining that the Fed is refusing to lower interest rates.

Trump has been on a virtual war path against Powell in recent weeks, threatening to fire him -- and then backing away from that threat. He has repeatedly lashed out at Powell in posts on his social media site, calling him "a major loser" in one post.

Trump, speaking one day after the Fed, as financial markets had widely expected, kept its key borrowing rate unchanged, said cutting interest rates would be "like jet fuel" for the economy, "but he doesn't want to do it." He said Powell is "not in love with me."

Early last week, in remarks suggesting that he is more knowledgeable about interest rates than Powell, Trump said he was not "a huge fan of" Powell.

The Fed this week kept short-term borrowing costs in the 4.25%-4.50% range, where they have been since December. While the big tariffs imposed by Trump are likely to increase both inflation and unemployment, the economy so far has shown little sign of either, Powell said on Wednesday, giving the central bank time to wait until there is more clarity on where tariffs actually end up and assess their effect on prices and jobs. At that point the Fed can act as needed, and potentially aggressively, he said.

Trump had a different view. "'Too Late' Jerome Powell is a FOOL, who doesn't have a clue," he wrote in a post on Truth Social on Thursday morning. "Oil and Energy way down, almost all costs (groceries and 'eggs') down, virtually NO INFLATION ..."

Cutting interest rates typically boosts the economy, but in a time of above-target inflation, doing so could also unleash an upward spiral of price pressures that Powell has said must be avoided.

Trump named Powell as the Fed chair in 2018, during his first term in the White House, and Democratic President Joe Biden appointed Powell to a second four-year term in 2022.

Trump and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Thursday announced a "breakthrough deal" on trade, the first since Trump announced steep import levies on most U.S. trading partners on April 2 before subsequently pausing some of them to allow time to reach country-by-country deals.

That first glimmer of certainty amid what had been an increasingly foggy outlook makes the Fed actually less likely to cut rates aggressively. That was the read from financial markets, as traders pulled back Thursday from what had been overwhelming bets on a July start to interest rate reductions, with any more than three rate cuts by year's end seen as increasingly unlikely.

Trump has made no secret of his dissatisfaction with Powell's conduct of monetary policy ever since shortly after picking him as Fed chair early in his first term. Trump's suggestion last month that he would like Powell gone sent stocks and bonds both down as investors priced in the chance the Fed could lose its independence and thereby its ability to restrain inflation.

Powell, asked about Trump's criticisms in his news conference on Wednesday, declined to comment. He has said he intends to complete his term as chair, which ends in about a year.

Powell met a total of three times with Biden. Powell's calendars also show he had a 90-minute dinner with Trump at the White House during his first stint there, as well as several other shorter encounters, but has not spoken with him since 2019.

Powell said on Wednesday that he never has sought and never would seek a meeting with a president. "It's always been the other way," he said Wednesday.

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Economic

Global recession risks have shot back up markets' worry list, but the readout from economic data and key financial indicators is not as clear cut as it first appears.

A 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs unveiled by U.S. President Donald Trump in April has eased investors' worst fears, but the damage to business and consumer confidence is expected to hurt.

"Recession risks have risen markedly even if there are some deals struck on tariffs," said Guy Miller, chief markets strategist at Zurich Insurance Group. "The risk of a U.S. recession is 50-50, it's that close."

Here's a look at what some closely-watched indicators say about global recession risks.

HARD VS SOFT

A disconnect between so-called soft economic numbers such as sentiment indicators and hard data, for instance jobs figures, makes it hard to decipher recession risks.

Latest U.S. jobs numbers point to a resilient economy, while a first quarter economic contraction in the United States and an expansion in the euro zone have both been explained away by pre-positioning by companies ahead of the reciprocal tariffs.

Business and consumer confidence indicators meanwhile have deteriorated, a sign for some that weaker growth will materialise soon.

U.S. consumer confidence slumped to a nearly five-year low in April. Consumer spending is key because it accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. A euro zone investor morale index has rebounded after nose-diving in April, opens new tab but remains in negative territory.

"We assume that any contraction in the euro area would be short lived and relatively mild," said MUFG senior economist Henry Cook.

Zurich's Miller said he was watching initial weekly jobless claims as the most timely indicator of what's happening in the U.S. economy.

Market recession indicators: dissecting the signal from the noise_1

Citi's economic surprise index records whether data is surpassing market expectations.

CHANGE YOUR MIND

There's no getting away from slashed growth forecasts.

Economists polled by Reuters indicate high risks of a recession this year, having forecast strong growth just three months ago.

Barclays reckons the picture is one of a meaningful global slowdown, combined with mild U.S. and euro area recessions.

Yet a recession is not a done deal, economists say. If the U.S. can arrange trade deals soon or deliver on tax cuts, the risks would fall, while the euro zone economy will likely be buffered by lower rates and fiscal stimulus.

"A recovery of consumer spending due to higher wages and a more dovish than expected central bank, at least in the euro area, are the main factors helping to avoid a deep recession," said BofA economist Ruben Segura-Cayuela.

3/ WHERE'S THE DEMAND? The signal from commodity markets points to a sharp growth slowdown.

Oil prices are down around 16% so far this year to around $60 a barrel . If that's sustained, 2025 would mark the worst year for crude since 2020's COVID crisis.

For sure, they also reflect expectations for more supply from OPEC, but the price falls fit into the broader picture of weaker demand as global growth slows, analysts say.

Copper, dubbed "Dr Copper" for its track record as a boom-bust indicator, has recovered from roughly one-year lows hit in early April but remains below a March peak .

Citi is bearish over the next three to six months as physical copper consumption and manufacturing activity slow due to U.S. tariffs, especially the 145% levy on manufacturing hub China.

Market recession indicators: dissecting the signal from the noise_2

Brent crude oil price in dollars per barrel.

TRUST MR BOND?

Government bond markets reflect concern about a U.S. tariff-induced slowdown, but no heightened recession risk, as markets assume central banks will respond swiftly with rate cuts.

China on Wednesday cut rates to help soften the blow of a trade war and traders have increased European Central Bank rate cut bets since March. They anticipate 60 basis points of further ECB easing by December.

Traders expect roughly 80 bps of U.S. Federal Reserve cuts by December and 115 bps by mid-2026, after paring back more aggressive expectations since the tariff pause. The Fed on Wednesday left rates steady and said the risks of higher inflation and unemployment had risen.

"In recent years they (Fed funds futures) have consistently overestimated how dovish the Fed would be," said Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen.

Also watch yield curves, although their reliance as a recession indicator has been called into question recently.

The gap between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields has been positive since last year. While yield curve inversion has historically been seen as a recession predictor, the curve tends to revert back to normal as recession nears.

"In recent cycles, the recession didn’t begin when curves were inverted, but when they un-inverted as central banks rapidly cut rates leading short-dated yields to fall more quickly than the long-dated ones," said Allen.

Market recession indicators: dissecting the signal from the noise_3

The gap between two and 10-year Treasury yields is in positive territory.

STOCKS, TOO UPBEAT

A rebound in stocks suggests recession fears have faded. German shares are near record highs, New York and Tokyo have jumped more than 15% each from lows hit last month .

But pay attention to company earnings.

Sweden's Electrolux , slashed its outlook while Volvo Cars, computer gadget maker Logitech, and drinks giant Diageo, abandoned their targets due to uncertainty. General Motors , pulled its forecast for the year even as it reported strong results.

"Q1 was perhaps the last of the unaffected earnings quarters, with tariffs a factor from Q2 onwards," said Zurich's Miller. "Given the uncertainty, I would have thought valuations should reflect at least some of this. So far, they do not."