Top Trump Aides Brief Congress, As Trump Open To Broader Latin America Campaign

Political

Economic

Summary:

President Donald Trump's top national security advisers briefed members of Congress about the administration's campaign against suspected Venezuelan drug traffickers on Tuesday, as the president suggested he could extend U.S. military operations to Mexico and Colombia.

An overview of Caracas amid rising tensions between the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump and Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro's government, in Caracas, Venezuela, November 27, 2025. REUTERS/Gaby Oraa

· Lawmakers want more information after briefing by top Trump aides

· Trump would consider extending anti-drug operations to Mexico, Colombia

· Trump criticizes Europe's political leaders as 'weak'

· President declines to rule in or rule out land operations in Venezuela

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine and CIA Director John Ratcliffe held a classified briefing for Congress' "Gang of Eight" representing intelligence committee and Senate and House of Representatives leaders from both parties after members of Congress clamored for more information.

Democrats emerged from the meeting dissatisfied. "I asked them what their strategy is, and what they were doing, and again, did not get satisfying answers at all," Senate Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York told reporters after the briefing.

Republicans mostly declined to comment beyond saying they were still studying the issues.

Trump said in a wide-ranging interview with Politico conducted on Monday that he could extend anti-drug military operations to Mexico and Colombia and hinted at land operations in Venezuela. He also took aim at Europe, including another call for Ukrainian elections and support for Hungary's leader.

Trump repeatedly declined to rule out sending troops into Venezuela as part of an effort to bring down President Nicolas Maduro. Asked if he would consider using force against targets in other countries where the drug trade is highly active, including Mexico and Colombia, Trump said: "I would."

MONROE DOCTRINE 2.0

The U.S. military has massed much of its naval strength in the southern Caribbean since early September, conducting at least 22 strikes on boats in waters around Venezuela that have killed nearly 90 people.

The campaign has come under heightened scrutiny in recent days as details emerged of a September 2 decision to launch a second strike on a suspected drug boat that killed survivors of the first attack.

Trump's comments in the Politico interview reiterated much of his world view outlined in the sweeping national security strategy released last week that seeks to reframe the country's global role.

That strategy, which aides called the Trump Corollary to the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine asserting U.S. dominance in the Americas, focused on the U.S. reasserting itself in the Western Hemisphere while warning Europe that it must change course or face "erasure."

"They're weak," Trump told Politico, referring to Europe's political leaders. "They want to be so politically correct."

A spokesperson for the European Commission, asked about Trump's comments, defended the bloc's leaders and said the region remained committed to their union despite challenges such as Russia's war in Ukraine and Trump's tariff policies.

In the interview, Trump again said he thought it was time for Ukraine to hold elections as the war nears its four-year mark. Ukraine is expected to share a revised peace plan with the U.S. later on Tuesday, one day after hastily arranged talks with European leaders.

He also said he did not offer a financial lifeline to the government of ally Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who met with Trump last month at the White House.

"No, I didn't promise him, but he certainly asked for it," he said.

Source: Reuters

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James Whitman

Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

President Donald Trump held talks with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz as the US pushes for a deal to end Russia's war in Ukraine.

The leaders spoke by phone Wednesday, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. The White House didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

The call came as Ukraine and its European allies prepared to send the Trump administration revised proposals for a possible peace agreement with Russia.

Three documents are being discussed between the countries. One is an overall framework to end the war, the second concerns security guarantees for Kyiv and the third focuses on Ukraine's reconstruction.

On Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the main sticking points remained over territory and security guarantees.

Source: Bloomberg

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Central bank divergence is the critical variable

The case for a stronger British pound rests primarily on central bank divergence, with markets pricing a more aggressive Federal Reserve(Fed) easing cycle than Bank of England (BoE) cuts. If that plays out, sterling could push through 1.35 and target 1.38-1.40 over the coming year.

The Fed's trajectory is critical. If US unemployment rises on AI-related displacement and the Fed front-loads easing, the US dollar risk premium narrows sharply. But the question is whether the Fed can engineer a soft landing or whether it ends up cutting too late, triggering a harder downturn that supports the dollar through haven flows.

The Bank of England (BoE) faces its own dilemma. UK growth remains subdued, but services inflation is proving stickier than hoped. If the BoE accelerates easing due to growth weakness while inflation stays elevated, sterling struggles regardless of what the Fed does. The bank needs inflation to cooperate if it's going to maintain a measured pace that supports the currency.

Fiscal credibility and political stability matter

Fiscal credibility matters more for sterling than the market currently appreciates. Post-election budget plans will be scrutinised for evidence that the government can consolidate without strangling growth. Credible fiscal signals could tighten gilt spreads and provide underlying support for the pound.

The UK's challenge is smaller in scale than the US deficit problem, which creates an opening. US deficit concerns are larger and more intractable, and renewed focus on Treasury supply could weigh on the dollar if bond vigilantes resurface. If the UK demonstrates better fiscal management than the US – admittedly a low bar – sterling could benefit from a relative credibility premium.

UK political stability following the 2025 election could remove part of sterling's discount. The UK has carried a political risk premium since Brexit, and a period of stable government could narrow that meaningfully. US politics into the 2026 mid-cycle pose their own risks, especially around trade or tech policy shocks that raise dollar volatility.

Growth and inflation create competing pressures

Growth divergence cuts both ways. UK productivity has been dismal for years, but any upside surprise from investment would lift sterling. The bar is low, which means pleasant surprises are possible. US activity will hinge on how deep the Federal Reserve's (Fed) easing cycle goes – a shallow cycle would keep the dollar supported.

If UK services inflation proves stickier than US inflation, sterling stays capped. Faster US disinflation would increase the likelihood of multiple Fed cuts and lessen dollar strength.

Risk appetite and the AI theme

Risk appetite provides another lens. A global risk-on environment driven by AI-led capex and tech earnings tends to weaken the dollar and lift pro-cyclical currencies like sterling. But any correction in tech valuations or jump in volatility would quickly reverse those flows.

Sterling benefits when investors are optimistic about global growth. A sustained period of risk-on sentiment would support the pound even if other factors remain neutral. The challenge is that risk appetite can shift quickly, often with little warning.

Base case and what could go wrong

The base case for mild sterling appreciation is plausible if the Fed cuts more quickly than the BoE and UK fiscal signals improve. This requires central bank divergence to play out as currently priced and for UK politics to stabilise post-election.

But it's a narrow path. The Fed needs to cut aggressively without signalling panic. The BoE needs inflation to cooperate. UK fiscal policy needs to be credible but not excessively tight. And global risk appetite needs to remain constructive.

The main risk is a deeper UK slowdown that forces the BoE to cut more aggressively, or a shorter, shallower US easing cycle. Either scenario would undermine the divergence trade that underpins sterling strength.

GBP/USD – technical analysis

Sterling has enjoyed a steady recovery from November’s lows at $1.30, and has regained the $1.32 level, which had marked the lows in May and August. The early September low at $1.33 is now being fought over, but a close above here helps to reinforce the bullish view.

Beyond this lies the September high at $1.37, and then on the July high at $1.38.

The weekly chart shows a continued recovery from the 2022 lows, with a series of higher highs and higher lows, leaving a bullish case intact for the time being.

GBP/USD weekly candlestick chart

GBP/USD daily candlestick chart

Source: ig

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Commodity

Silver’s breakout above $60 may be the opening act for Gold. With Treasury futures under pressure and term premium rising, the market is sending a clear message: risk is being repriced.

Silver breaks above $60 after an ascending triangle coil.

Gold bullish breakout risk builds.

Treasury futures slide; 30-year contract breaches 200DMA.

Term premium rising as political, legal events near.

Summary

Futures tied to the world’s benchmark interest rate sit at a pivotal level, reflecting a market clouded by extraordinary uncertainty. This isn’t just about the Fed’s next move—it’s about whether Treasuries and the US dollar can still be relied upon as safe havens in a world where politics, litigation, and fiscal risk are colliding.

With 30-year bond futures already breaking down through key levels and term premium reasserting itself, the message is clear: risk is being repriced, and it’s happening fast. Against that backdrop, the surge in gold and silver looks less like a coincidence and more like a rotation into alternative havens as confidence in traditional ones erodes.

Treasuries Under Strain

Political risk and legal uncertainty are now front and centre for U.S. markets. The looming Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s reciprocal tariffs could significantly widen the primary deficit and even open the door to litigation against the government. Add to that the potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as Fed chair and the unresolved status of Lisa Cook—dismissed by Trump earlier this year and reinstated by court order—and you have a cocktail of risks that challenge the perception of Fed independence.

When confidence in central bank autonomy wavers, traditional havens like Treasuries and dollar have understandably lost some of their shine. That’s exactly what we’re seeing: term premium is back, and it’s biting the long end of the U.S curve.

Benchmark Futures Teeter Above Key Level

Rejected comprehensively at the influential 50DMA last week, US 10-year Treasury note futures have spent the period since sliding lower, leaving the contract teetering at 114’20’0 less than 24 hours out from the Fed’s December FOMC meeting. 114’20’0 has acted as support and resistance for lengthy periods in 2025, underlining its importance for medium-term directional risks.

With RSI (14) pushing lower below 50, downside is favoured over upside, especially with MACD confirming the bearish signal. Should we see an extension of the unwind through 114’20’0, a retest of the 200DMA comes into view and, beyond that, the intersection of 113’16’0 support and the uptrend running from the January lows.

If the bearish move stalls at 114’20’0, the 50DMA may be targeted by bulls looking for a retracement, although price action beneath 115’00’0 should be monitored given there were buyers lurking beneath it for periods in November. It may therefore revert to offering resistance.

30-Year Bond Futures: A Warning Signal

Providing a warning on what may be on the way for benchmark Treasury futures, U.S. 30-year bond futures broke beneath the key 200-day moving average earlier this week, pointing to increased risk of yields lifting further for this key anchor for U.S. mortgage rates.

While it’s not textbook, the breakdown through the neckline from what resembles a head-and-shoulders pattern over the past three months adds to the sense that we could see more downside for price, putting 117’28 and the May uptrend in focus in the near term. A break of the latter would open the door for a far deeper flush, pointing to the possibility of underlying 30-year yields topping 5% again.

RSI (14) and MACD continue to deliver bearish signals, favouring downside over upside. Without a subsequent lift in 30-year inflation breakevens to accompany rising yields, the broader macro signal would point to increased term premium being demanded by traders to hold long-dated U.S. government debt. That means greater compensation to account for perceived risks.

Precious Metals: Alternative Havens?

The acceleration in the bullish move for both gold and silver kicked off in late August, the exact moment Donald Trump first began threatening Lisa Cook’s tenure as Fed governor. That timing is hard to ignore. It feeds the view that the surge in precious metals, alongside the move in rates, at least partially reflects concern over the Fed’s independence.

Gold and Silver Shine as Treasury Risks Mount_3

Coiling price action within an ascending triangle eventually resulted in a major breakout for silver above $54.50 resistance, sending the price surging above $60. While RSI (14) and MACD sit in extremely overbought territory on the weekly timeframe, convention suggests there could still be more left in the tank for silver, even with stretched positioning. The price action in silver may also be relevant for gold given similarities in its setup prior to the breakout.

Gold and Silver Shine as Treasury Risks Mount_4

Like silver, gold saw an acceleration in the bullish move from late August, before topping out and retracing beneath $4,000, then resuming its push higher. Now sitting beneath the October highs within an ascending triangle, bullish breakout risk is something to monitor as we head towards year-end.

$4,245 is the level to watch overhead in the near term, having capped bullion twice in November. RSI (14) and MACD are overbought and showing signs of waning topside strength, but the overall momentum signal still favours bullish setups over bearish. It’s more a cautionary message to bulls than an outright warning that bears are gaining control.

Event Risk Looms in Early 2026

With the back end of the U.S. curve selling off into key monetary and political events, the traditional safe-haven playbook may be in the process of being rewritten. That might explain why precious metals are carrying the haven torch right now. If Fed independence remains in question and legal risks materialise, we may see continued stress in Treasuries and a sustained bid for precious metals as we move into 2026.

Source: investing

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Justin

Stocks

US equities slid Wednesday as traders brace for a widely anticipated quarter-point rate cut later in the session, along with projections from officials on the trajectory of monetary policy.

The S&P 500 Index fell 0.1% in New York as of 9:32 a.m. in New York, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index was down 0.3%. All eyes will also be on artificial intelligence bellwether Oracle Corp.'s earnings after markets close.

Markets are all but certain that the Federal Reserve will reduce its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point on Wednesday, but more important will be economic views from policymakers and the tone Chair Jerome Powell takes when he speaks following the meeting.

The recent choppiness in US stocks comes alongside a climb in Treasury yields, with the 10-year bond around 4.19%.

Over the past three years, US stocks have suffered turbulence and weaker returns when the yield on 10-year Treasuries climbs above 4.25%, according to Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler & Co. Any hawkish remarks from Powell at his press conference could "easily push" the 10-year note toward that "line in the sand," Kantrowitz wrote in a note to clients.

Oracle, which reports earnings after the closing bell, and many other artificial intelligence companies are facing a wave of skepticism due to heavy capital expenditures and the circular nature of some arrangements. The company's latest results will provide a gut check for investors on the AI trade.

Traders are placing more importance on the earnings readout from Oracle than on the Fed decision, according to Citigroup Inc.'s trading strategy desk. The S&P 500 options-implied move for the results, as well as next week's jobs data and inflation report, have risen to above today's FOMC meeting, according to Citi's Vishal Vivek.

"The upcoming Oracle earnings has become almost as important as Nvidia's earnings," Vivek wrote in a note to clients Wednesday. "Oracle appears to have become the benchmark to measure the likelihood of AI capex spent ending in a bubble."

Options traders have weighed in on whether the run in artificial intelligence stocks is coming to an end, and their verdict is a resounding no, not anytime soon.

That's on display in the derivatives market, where open interest in call options on the Magnificent Seven group of tech stocks is near its highest since March 2023 relative to puts, a sign that traders are preparing for a move upward.

Among single stocks, Amazon.com Inc. pledged to invest $35 billion in India over the next five years. US manufacturer GE Vernova Inc. jumped after boosting its buyback and doubling a dividend.

Meantime, SpaceX is moving ahead with plans for an initial public offering that would seek to raise significantly more than $30 billion, people familiar with the matter said, in a transaction that would make it the biggest listing of all time.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Economic

The Federal Reserve is poised to deliver its third straight interest rate cut Wednesday, while simultaneously firing a warning shot about what's ahead.

Following a period of remarkable indecision about which way central bank policymakers would lean, markets have settled on a quarter percentage point reduction. If that's the case, it will take the Fed's key interest rate down to a range of 3.5%-3.75%.

However, there are complications.

The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee is split between members who favor cuts as a way to head off further weakness in the labor market against those who think easing has gone far enough and threatens to aggravate inflation.

That's why the term "hawkish cut" has become the buzzy term for this meeting. In market parlance, it refers to a Fed that will reduce, but deliver a message that no one should be holding their breath for the next one.

"The likeliest outcome is a kind of hawkish cut where they cut, but the statement and the press conference suggesting that they may be done cutting for now," said Bill English, the Fed's former director of monetary affairs and now a Yale professor.

English expects the message to be "that they've made an adjustment and they're comfortable where they are, and they don't see a need to do anything more in the near term, as long as things play out more or less as they expect."

Where the full committee falls will be expressed in the post-meeting statement and Chair Jerome Powell's news conference. Wall Street economic commentary anticipates a tweak in the statement to harken back to a year ago with language regarding "the extent and timing of additional adjustments" that Goldman Sachs expects to reflect "the bar for any further cuts will be somewhat higher."

In addition to the rate decision and the statement, investors will be watching an update to the "dot plot" of individual officials' rate expectations; expectations for gross domestic product, unemployment and inflation, and a possible update of the Fed's asset purchase intentions, with some expecting the committee to pivot from ceasing the runoff of maturing bond proceeds back to purchases.

Many moving parts

As for Powell, his tone "will also likely get across that the bar has risen in his press conference and will likely again make a point of explaining the views of participants who opposed a cut," Goldman economist David Mericle said in a note.

About that dissent: The October meeting saw two "no" votes on the final statement, one from each side of the rate debate. Mericle said that is likely to happen again, accompanied by multiple other "soft dissents" who will represent divergent views on the "dot plot" that indicates, anonymously, the rate outlook for each of 19 individual meeting participants, a group that includes 12 voters.

While Mericle added that there is a "solid case" for a third cut, there are arguments to be made for both sides.

"It's a tough meeting, and so they'll presumably be a few dissents," English said. "It's often hard to get the committee together. You have people who just have very different views about how the economy works and how policy works and so on. But this moment for the economy is particularly fraught."

Even with the dearth of official government data due to the since-settled shutdown, hiring has shown signs of flattening, with sporadic signals that layoffs are accelerating. A Bureau of Labor Statistics report Tuesday showed job openings little changed in October but hiring down by 218,000 and layoffs rising by 73,000.

On the inflation side, the most recent reading of the Fed's preferred gauge showed the annual rate at 2.8% in September, slightly below the Wall Street forecast but still well above the central bank's 2% goal.

Inflation worries

Despite President Donald Trump's protestations that inflation has disappeared, it has at best stabilized and at worst is holding above the Fed's target in part due to the tariffs implemented under his watch. While Fed officials mostly have said they expect the duties to provide a temporary boost to prices, the gap between the current level and the central bank goal is enough to give some economists and policymakers pause.

"Inflation is not back to 2% so they're going to need to keep policy somewhat restrictive if they are going to put downward pressure on inflation," former Cleveland President Loretta Mester said Tuesday on CNBC. "Right now, inflation is pretty well above the goal, and it's not just all tariff-driven."

Still, Mester thinks the FOMC will approve one more cut Wednesday.

Like market participants, Mester saw a Nov. 21 speech from New York Fed President John Williams as the pivotal sign "quite clearly" that another reduction was coming. Prior to that, markets had been betting against a cut, particularly after Powell said explicitly at his October news conference that a December move was not a "foregone conclusion. Far from it."

"I think they're going to follow through with that last cut," Mester said. "I do hope that they signal that they think the economy has gotten to a place where policy is in a good place and they are going to slow down the cuts, because I am more concerned about the inflation risk, the stickiness."

Aside from rate questions and the dot plot update, the committee may signal its next step regarding management of its balance sheet.

The committee in October signaled that it would halt the process of "quantitative tightening," or allowing maturing bond proceeds to roll off. With pressures ongoing in the overnight funding markets, some market participants expect the Fed will announce it will resume bond purchases, though not a pace that would suggest the "quantitative easing," or QT's opposite.

Source: cnbc

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Justin

Political

Economic

A photo of eight high school students forming a "human swastika" on a California football field went viral online last week, spurring an outcry from the Jewish community and political leaders across Silicon Valley.

The social media post showing the students lying on the ground in the shape of the Nazi symbol at Branham High School in San Jose was posted online on December 3, along with a 1939 antisemitic quote from Adolf Hitler calling for the annihilation of Jews. The incident began to garner national attention on Tuesday.

The image was eventually deleted from Instagram, but screenshots remain online, including one posted by a member of the California State Assembly, Gail Pellerin, along with a statement condemning the incident.

Antisemitic incidents that had been on the rise in the U.S. for years spiked after the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Hamas-led militants and Israel's subsequent military offensive in Hamas-controlled Gaza.

The head of the school district of which Branham is a part condemned the post in a statement, calling the swastika "an unmistakable symbol of genocide."

Robert Bravo, superintendent of the Campbell Union High School District, promised parents on Tuesday that the students would be punished, noting that he had "heard from many community members who are sincerely worried that the students involved will not face consequences strong enough to reflect the seriousness of their actions."

But Bravo also said that some had questioned "whether the students should be disciplined at all," while saying that "antisemitism in any form is unacceptable in our district."

"I want to be very clear: the district considers this an instance of hate violence," he wrote. "The district will respond firmly, thoughtfully, and within the full scope allowed by Board Policy and California law."

He was not available late Tuesday to elaborate on his statements.

The San Jose Police were called to the school regarding the matter, according to media accounts. A San Jose police media spokesperson did not immediately respond to calls and emails seeking comment.

"The actions of students who used their bodies to form a swastika, photographed it, and posted it online with their names and a threatening Hitler quote attached, paint a terrifying picture of the hate plaguing our communities," Pellerin, of the State Assembly, said in her post.

Maya Bronicki, an education leader with the Bay Area Jewish Coalition, said the image has rattled the Jewish community.

"These are children," Bronicki said. "I don't know if they are hateful or ignorant, but it represents blind hate."

Branham High principal Beth Silbergeld told students and parents that the post "does not reflect the values of our school and community," and said the incident was under investigation, according to the school's student newspaper, the Branham Bear Witness.

Marc Levine, ADL's Northern California director, said on Tuesday that Branham school administrators have reached out to him.

"We all want to keep hate out of student spaces," he said.

The Jewish watchdog group, the Anti-Defamation League, reported in its annual audit that in 2024 there were more than 9,300 antisemitic incidents across the U.S., marking a 5% increase from 2023 and a 344% increase over the last five years.

Source: Reuters

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